T A C O O N G C O A CHfNH SACH TL/ DO HOA N H A P K H A U O 6 | Vdl
T A N G TRUdNG KINH T^ 6 V I E T NAM: MOT P H A N TICH THEO K E N H Dinh Thi Hoang Yen'*
Tom t a t
Viet Nam, mdt nen kinh te chuyen ddi, da b i t d i u cdng eude cai each kinh te lich sii vao nam 1986 va tU dd theo dudi ea hai hudng phat trien thi trUdng va Nha nUdc quan ly. Nghien eUu nay tap trung vao cac chinh sach tii do hoa thUdng mai trong nUde va qud'c te cua Viet Nam, mdt phan quan trpng ciia cai each kinh te, bang viec do mpt chi sd' cho chinh sach tU do hoa nhap khau va sau dd sii dung phan tich kenh de lUdng hoa tac ddng ciia tii do hoa nhap khau ddi vdi tang trUdng kinh te cua dat nUde, Nghien cifu nay ap dung phUdng p h i p nghien ciiu do Wacziarg (2001) de xuat de phan tich sd'lieu cua Viet Nam trong thdi ky 1986-2006 vdi nhUng siia ddi can thiet cho phii hdp vdi dac diem kinh te cua Viet Nam.
Ket qua Udc lUdng b i n g hdi quy 3SLS chi ra tac ddng tieh ciic ciia tii do hoa nhap khau ddi vdi tang trUdng kinh te khi da giai thich dly du thdng tin ve cae kenh lien ket (ehi tieu cua Chinh phii, c h i t lUdng kinh te vi md, chenh lech thi trUdng chd den, thUdng mai ndi dia, FDI, va xuat khau). Nghien cifu nay ket luan chi sd'tu do h o i thUdng mai cif tang len mdt ddn vi thi tang trUdng kinh te tang len dUdc 0,304 diem phan tram. Trong dd, tang nang liic cdng nghe cua xuat khau, dn dinh kinh te vi md, va thUdng mai ndi dia hieu qua la cac yeu to chu yeu, m.di yeu td ehiem khoang tif 25-30% tdng tac ddng ciia cae kenh.
1. Gidi t h i e u
Cd nhieu t r a n h luan ve vai trd ciia thUdng mai ddi vdi p h a t trien kinh te xoay q u a n h van de lam the nao de thUdng mai cd the lam ddng lUe cho t a n g trudng va lam the nao de do lUdng dUdc ich ldi nay.
Lich sii dudng nhU ung hd cho sU t h a n h cdng eiia tii do hoa thUdng mai tai Hoa Ky nhUng nam 1940 va ciia N h a t Ban nhUng nam 1960, cung nhU cho nhUng t h a n h tich xiic tien xuat k h a u cua nhUng con Hd chau A trong nhUng nam 1970-1980, Mae du nhin chung la cac n h a nghien cUu ddng y r a n g "thUdng mai la td't chd t a n g trUdng", nhUng p h a n tieh dinh lUdng lai dUa ra r a t nhieu ket qua k h i c n h a u ve mdi quan he giUa thUdng mai, ma chinh x i c hdn la tii do hoa thUdng mai va t a n g trUdng kinh te,
Cd ba ly do chinh tai sao nhUng ket qua lai khac n h a u . ThU nhat, viec chpn chi sd' cho tu do hoa thUdng mai cd the la sd lieu ve tinh hinh thiic hien heae la xu hUdng thUdng mai theo ly thuyet (Leamer 1988).
Tuy nhien, nhUng bien phap thUdng mai anh hudng ldn den ket qua thUdng mai, dac biet la nhUng bien phap h a n che thUdng mai va nhUng h a n g rao phi thue q u a n (Sachs va W a r n e r 1995, A n d r i a m a n a n j a r a va Nash 1997), Thii hai, viec liia chpn eho bien giai thich eho t a n g trUdng kinh te d nhUng qudc gia tien h a n h tii hoa hoa thUdng mai la khac nhau.
Dinh Thi Hoang Yen, Tien si, Bp Cong ThUdng.
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NGHIEN CUU • TRAD DDI TAC O O N G C U A CHINH SACH TU DO H 6 A NHAP K H X U 06\ v d l TANG TRL/dNG KINH Tf..vi du tich luy va n a n g s u a t (Frankel va Remer 1999), quy md t h i trUdng (Ades va Glaeser 1999). Q u a n trpng hdn la nhUng kenh tac ddng ciia chinh s i c h thUdng m a i vdi t a n g trUdng p h u thude vao t i n h t r a n g dac t h u eiia tUng qud'c gia (Harrison 1996, Rodriguez va Rodrik 1999). Thii ba, phUdng p h i p p h a n tieh c i n p h a i cdng p h u hdn de nghien ciiu ti mi mdi q u a n h e "hop den" giiia tii do h o i thUdng m a i va t a n g trUdng, chii khdng ehi ddn t h u i n la p h a n tich tUdng quan hoac la hdi quy ciia mdt phUdng trinh duy n h a t . Y tUdng chd p h a n tich thee kenh da dUde de x u a t trong cac cdng trinh ciia Salvatore (1983), Fisher (1993), Sprout va W e a v e r (1993), Wacziarg (2001), va J e n k i n s (2004).
PhUdng phap tiep can eiia Wacziarg (2001) t a p t r u n g vao viec k h a m p h a nhiing kenh lien q u a n giUa chinh sach thUdng mai va t a n g trUdng k i n h te se dUdc dung lam nen t a n g cho nghien ciiu nay.
Theo each tiep can nay, trUdc tien la xay diing mdt ehi sd' tdng hdp cho dp md thUdng mai va xay diing mdt md h i n h de udc lUdng ddng thdi b i n g phUdng p h a p binh phUdng tdi thieu 3 budc (3SLS). Can phai n h a n m a n h r a n g viec ap dung thed each tiep can ciia Wacziarg (2001) cho sd' lieu chudi thdi gian la Uu viet hdn nhUng each tiep can sii dung phUdng phap p h a n tich tiing kenh rieng r e de d a n h gia tac ddng ciia mdt t a p hdp nhUng cai each k i n h te dan xen ciia Viet N a m tif n a m 1986, ma trong dd tii do hoa n h a p k h a u mdt cai td can ban nhat.
Da ed r a t nhieu nghien cifu ve tU do h o i thUdng mai eua Viet N a m , dac biet la nghien ciiu ve qua t r i n h tU do h o i n h a p k h a u ke tif khi Viet N a m tien h a n h cai each kinh te, chu yeu dUdi sii bao trd ciia Ngan h a n g The gidi. Mae du t a t ea cac n h a nghien ciiu deu ket l u a n la tii do hoa thUdng mai eua Viet N a m la diing hudng, van cdn khd k h a n de t h a y cd phai tii do hoa thUdng mai da thiic day t a n g trUdng.
Trong pham vi kien thUe eiia chiing tdi, ehUa cd mpt nghien ciiu nao sif dung p h a n
tich k e n h de d i n h vi n h i i n g md'i q u a n he giUa ehinh sach tii do hoa n h a p k h a u vdi t a n g trUdng k i n h t e d Viet N a m . Mac dii da cd mdt loat nghien cifu sii d u n g md h i n h can b i n g tdng t h e (CGE) eho tii do hoa n h a p k h a u ciia Viet N a m , n h i n ehung e l c md h i n h CGE k h d n g t h e p h a n tieh nhiing tien bo cong n g h e mpt each noi sinh.
R5 rang la chinh sach tU do hoa nhap khau khdng the thiie hien dUdc trpn ven neu khdng cd sii ket ndi vdi nhUng ehinh sach kinh te vi md khac, va mdi quan he nay can phai dUdc dieu tra de thiic hien cd hieu qua qua trinh toan c l u h o i dang tiep dien d Viet Nam. La mdt nen kinh te chuyen ddi, nhap khau ciia Viet Nam chiu sii quan ly eiia nhieu hang rao nhap khau. Khd khan nhat eiia q u i trinh tU do h o i la dd bd nhiing quan ly nay. Mae dii dien quan ly nhap khau cua Chinh phu da t h u hep lai de Uu tien nhap khau m i y mdc thiet bi va nhflng nguyen lieu d i u vao eIn thiet cho san xuat nhUng h o i ddn thanh t o i n nhap khau van tang len nhanh chdng vi sU c i n thiet phai d i u tU d giai doan d i u eiia phat trien kinh te. Ket qua ciia qua trinh tii do hoa nhin chung da lam giam mUe thue trung binh, lam tang tham hut thUdng mai va thaeh thiic kha nang duy tri sii dn dinh kinh te vi md cua Chinh phii.
Mue dieh eiia bai viet nay trUde tien la md ta nhflng dac diem eua ehinh sach tii do hoa ddi vdi nhap khau eiia Chinh phii Viet Nam va sau dd nhan dang md'i quan he ciia ehinh sich nay vdi nhflng chinh sach cai td quan trpng k h i c cung ed tac ddng den tang trudng kinh te d Viet Nam.
2. Qua trinh tii do hoa thiTdng mai va chi so tu do hoa nhap khau ciia Viet Nam
2.1 Chinh sach tii do hod nhap khdu vd nhiing thay ddi cua nhap khdu
Ddi vdi kinh te Viet Nam, Dai hdi Dang VI nam 1986 dUdc coi nhU la mpt moc lich sif tren con dUdng phat trien hudng tdi thi trUdng vdi sii quan ly eiia Nha nUdc. That tinh ed, nhflng eai each kinh te cua Viet
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TAC DONG CUA CHINH SACH TLT DO HOA NHAP KHAU D 6 | VOI TANG TRLfdNG KINH Tf.. NGHIEN CUU - TRAP DPI [ J ^
Nam dupe tien hanh ngay trUde sU sup dd cua Bfle tudng Berlin nam 1989, sii kien lam thay ddi tinh hinh kinh te ehinh tri qud'c te, da giup Viet Nam md rdng mdi quan he kinh te qud'c te vdi phUdng cham "da dang hoa da phUdng hoa quan he kinh te vdi cac nUde va vung lanh thd tren nguyen tac tdn trpng lan nhau, ddc lap, tii chu, binh dang va cung cd ldi". Cau lac bd Paris nam 1993 da giup ndi lai GDA cho Viet Nam, khdi xUdng qua trinh binh thudng hoa vdi cac td chUc kinh te tai chinh qud'c te trong nhflng nam 1990. Vao d i u nam 2007, Viet Nam da ky hiep dinh thUdng mai sdng phUdng (BTA) vdi h i u het cac nUde tren the gidi (treng dd ehu yeu la ky sau nam 1993). Sd'lUdng elc ddi tac thUdng mai da tang tfl 10 nUde xa hdi ehu nghia thanh vien cua Hdi ddng TUdng trd Kinh te len gin 200 nUde va vung lanh thd. The ky 21 da danh dau sii hdi nhap tap trung va rpng rai cua Viet Nam vdi kinh te the gidi, bat d i u b i n g hiep dinh thUdng mai song phUdng vdi Hda Ky nam 2000, hdp tac kinh te trong khudn khd ASEAN cdng va gia nhap WTO nam 2007.
Tang eUdng mdi quan he thUdng mai da giup Viet Nam hdp ly hoa va hien dai hoa quan ly thUdng mai vfla theo cae quy dinh qud'c te vfla dap Ung tinh hinh phat trien kinh te cua dat nUdc. Song song vdi nhflng van de nay sinh trong qua trinh tii do hoa, he thd'ng luat phap va dinh che da dupe thanh lap va lien tue cai td. Cach thfle quan ly xuat nhap khau thay ddi tU han che dinh lUdng (ban ngach, chi tieu, gily phep va doanh nghiep d i u md'i) den quan ly bang luat phap minh bach va nhflng khuyen khich theo cd che thi trUdng. Chinh sach thUdng mai ciia Viet Nam dUde duy tri nhat quan la hd trd xuat khau ddng thdi thay the nhap khau, trd giup vai trd cd' hflu eua cae ddanh nghiep nha nUdc. Treng qua trinh chuan hi hdi nhap kinh te the gidi (2001- 2006), mpt loat elc hoat ddng thUdng mai dUde dUa vad p h i p quy theo cae quy dinh eiia WTO. Dae biet vao nam 2001, cd che quan ly xuat nhap khau dai ban da dUde ban hanh b i n g Quyet dinh sd' 46/2001/QD-TTg (Quyet dinh 46), thay the che dp quan ly siia ddi hang nam nhU trUdc. Dac diem cua
chinh sach thUdng mai nay dUdc tdm t l t trcng Phu luc 1, neu len diin bien tii do hoa vdi ehinh sach han che nhap khau hang tieu dung de danh ngudn tai chinh cho nhap khau may mdc va nhien lieu (lln lUdt chiem ty trpng 30%) va 60% kim ngach nhap khau).
Tang thue va quan ly bang nhflng bien phap tUdng tii thue quan, quan ly so' lifdng va gia nhap khau tdi thieu thUdng dUdc sii dung de bao hp cac nganh cdng nghiep thay the nhap khau, song song vdi viec khuyen khich cac nganh cdng nghiep hUdng ve xuat khau.
Luat thue Xuat Nhap khau cua Viet Nam dUdc ban hanh l l n diu tien vao nam 1987, sau dd dUdc siia ddi vai l l n theo hudng md rpng so' ddng thue ma He thd'ng Hai hoa hoa (HS), tang sd'ddng thue trong khoang tU 0-5% va gia ban so' ngay thanh toan thue nhap khau cho dau vao cua cac nganh xuat khau. TU nam 1996, Viet Nam ap dung (1) Thue Uu dai cd hieu liic chung cho cac nUdc ASEAN (CEPT/AFTA) va (2) thue dUdc Uu dai n h i t (MFN) cho cac nUde da ky BTA vdi Viet Nam va thue phd thdng (bing 150% mUc thue MFN) cho nhflng nUdc cdn lai.
Ben canh dd, Viet Nam quan ly chat che ngoai te cho cac cdng ty thUdng mai bang viec yeu cau ket hdi va phan bd ngoai te cho nhap khau hang tieu dung. Cho den nam 1989, Viet Nam cd' dinh ty gia vdi ddng Ruble cua Nga va Nha nUdc quan ly mpi ngudn ngoai te, sau dd chuyen sang he thd'ng ty gia tha ndi cd kiem soat. Ty gia chinh thUc dUdc xac dinh tren thi trUdng lien ngan hang vdi bien dp cd liic tfl 1%
den 2%. Vao thdi diem cuoc khiing hoang tai chinh Chau A nam 1997, Viet Nam t h i t chat quan ly ngoai te, dac biet la quy dinh ddi vdi cac cdng ty thUdng mai cd ngudn thu ngoai te (vi du vao nam 1998, 80% thu nhap ngoai te phai ket bd'i vdi Ngan hang Nha nUdc). Mac dii Viet Nam da din dan tii do hoa he thd'ng ngoai te sau cuoc khiing hoang va bai bd quy dinh ve ket hdi vao nam 2003, tham hut thifdng mai kinh nien van la mpt thaeh thflc chinh ddi vdi quan ly ngoai hdi ciia Ngan hang Nha nUdc Viet Nam.
Ket qua thiie hien chinh sach tU do hoa n h a p k h a u dUde bieu thi trong Bang 1.
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NGHIEN ClJfU - TRAP DDI TAC D O N G COA CHINH SACH TLT DO HOA NHAP K H A U £X5I V O I T A N G TRL/ONG KINH Tf..Bang 1. Tong kim ngach nhap khau, Sir phu thuoc vao nhap khau va thue suat binh quan cua Viet Nam
Tdng kim ngach nhap khau (ty USD) Sir phu thuoc vao nhap khau (%) Suat thue binh quan don gian (%) Ty le doanh thu thue (% nhap khau)
1986 2.2 8.2
6.8
1992 2.5 25.7
10.7 5.1
1995 8.2 39.3 12.8 13.9
1997 11.6 43.2 13.4 8.3
2000 15.6 50.2
- 5.3
2002 19.7 56.3 15.7 6.6
2006 44.9 73.7 17.4 3.5 Ngudn: Tinh toan ciia tac gia tir sd lieu ciia Tdng cue Thd'ng ke va Athukorala.
Tdng kim ngach nhap khau tang trung binh 17.7%/nam, tfl khoang 2 ty USD nam
1986 len 45 ty USD nam 2006. Su phu thupe vao nhap khau, ty so' gifla tdng kim ngach nhap khau/GDP (M) tang len nhanh chdng tfl 8,2% nam 1986 len 50% nam 2000 va g i n 74% nam 2006, Trong luc dd, thue binh quan ddn gian da tang nhe tfl 10.7%) nam 1992 len 13.4% nam 1997 va 17,4% nam 2006, Theo cac cam ket vdi WTO, b i t d i u tfl nam 2008, Viet Nam se phai giam thue nhap khau trung binh ddn gian xud'ng cdn 13,4% trdng thdi gian tU 6 den 11 nam. Mac dfl doanh thu thue tang len, ty le doanh thu thue/tdng gia tri nhap khau giam di tfl sau nam 1995.
2.2 Chi sd tii do hod nhap khdu Viec chpn ra mdt chi so' thich hdp de lupng hoa nhflng thay ddi trong qua trinh tU do hoa nhap khau cua Viet Nam la r a t quan trpng. Rd rang la tu do hoa nhap khau phu thude chu yeu vao pham vi nhflng han che bing thue quan va nhflng hang rao phi thue (NTB). Trong khi mUc thue s u i t giam di trong cac nam qua thi cd nhieu lo ngai ddi vdi viec dd bd cac NTB, De cd the tien hanh phan tich lUdng hoa t i c ddng cua tU do hoa nhap khau, can xay diing mdt chi sd tU do hoa nhap khau vdi cac quyen so' cho NTBs va thue nhap k h i u .
Nhu phan phan tich ve chinh sach tU do hoa nhap khau cua Viet Nam d phan tren, giai doan tU nam 2001 trd di danh dau b i n g
sU ra ddi cua Quyet dinh 46 la met giai ddan thdng thdang cua chinh s i c h nhap khau. Dc dd, mdt bien gia bieu thi thdi gian chd viec dd bd NTB ciia Viet Nam (DUM) b i n g 1 dupc g i n eho giai doan nghien eflu 2001- 2006 va b i n g 0 cho giai doan trUde dd (1986- 2000). MUe thue nhap khau la mdt chi sd khac cho tU do hoa. Tuy nhien, nhflng thay ddi ve thue suat la khd so sanh gifla cae nam do cd sd thue thay ddi lam so' lUdng cac ddng thue tang len. Dd vay, de thay cho mflc thue, ty so' doanh t h u thue/tdng kim ngach nhap khau (TARIFF) dupe sii dung.
Ty le phu thupe vao nhap khau dUde chpn la bien phu thude trong ham hdi quy de tim ra quyen sd cho NTB va TARIFF. Su dung phUdng phap 3SLS, M dUde quy hdi vdi mflc thu nhap (INCOME), ty sd doanh thu thue/tdng kim ngach nhap k h i u (TARIFF), va bien gia cho tii do hoi nhap khau (DUM) theo phUdng trinh 1. Cic bien cdng cu dUdc sii dung la mflc dp lien lac qud'c te (vi tri dia ly), cdng nghiep hoa Gao dpng cdng nghiep), dien ticli dat canh t i c s i n cd (dat dai), va sii khac biet gifla gia xuat khau va gia nhap khau (ToT).
Chi sd cho chinh sich tfl do hoa nhap khau (Mhb) trong phUdng trinh 2 la tdng cua chi sd TARIFF va DUM vdi cac quyen sd tUdng Ung la nhflng he sd dUde Udc lUdng tfl phUdng trinh 1. Theo Udc lUdng, 53<0, 54>0 de the hien Mlib cang nhd^ (ve gia tri tuyet dd'i) thi chinh sach nhap khau cang tii do.
(1) M = 5,+5,* INCOME + ^3 * TARIFF + 5, * DUM
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Bdng 2. Ket qua irdc lirgmg cua phuofng trlnh 1
He so' t-stat He so' t-stat
Const.
37.603***
3.783 35.247***
3.359
INCOME 10.618 1.647 12,362***
10,308
T A R I F F -6.615**
-2.455 -7.195***
-5.825
DUM 7,044 0,259
Ghi chu: *** mirc y nghia 1%, ** mire y nghia 5%.
Ngudn: Tinh loan ciia tac gia.
Bien cdng cu: vi tri dia ly, lao ddng cdng nghiep, d i t dai, ToT
(2) Mlib = S3* TARIFF + ^4* DUM
Ket qua Udc lUdng cua phUdng trinh 1 dupe trinh bay trong Bang 2.
Gia tri t r u n g binh tuyet ddi ciia chi sd' Mlib trong giai doan 2001-2006 la 21.9, thap hdn r a t nhieu mUe 48.3 trong giai doan 1986-2000. Kiem t r a quan he n h a n qua Granger xac n h a n r a n g Mlib, TAR- IFF, va DUM la bien tao r a M. Ngoai ra, ket qua Ude lUdng ciia phUdng trinh 1 khdng cd bien DUM cung dUde trinh bay trong 2 ddng cudi cua Bang 2 va ehflng td udc lUdng vflng vdi ket qua am cua bien TARIFF.
3. Cac k e n h t a c dong ciia chinh sach nhap k h a u doi vdi t a n g trUcfng d Viet Nam: Khung p h a n tich
3.1 Tdm tdt nhiing kenh tdc dpng vd phuang phdp udc lupng ciia Wacziarg Theo Wacziarg (2001), nhflng kenh lien he gifla chinh sach thUdng mai va t a n g trudng kinh te dUdc dieu t r a de tim ra t i c dpng Idn n h a t ciia ehinh sach thUdng mai dd'i vdi t a n g trUdng. Dac biet la tac ddng ddi vdi t a n g trUdng k i n h te dudc cho la thdng qua 3 nhdm chinh. Mdi nhdm lai dUdc p h a n r a t h a n h 2 kenh: chinh sach eiia Chinh p h u (gdm chat lUdng chinh sach vi md va quy md ciia Chinh phii), phan bd va p h a n phdi (gdm sU bdp meo gia
ca va yeu td tich luy hay la dau tU ndi dia) va chuyen giao cdng nghe (gdm ty le x u l t k h a u cdng nghiep, va ty le FDI tren GDP).
Dp md thUdng mai t a n g cudng tang trUdng thdng qua mdt t a p hdp chinh sach kinh te vi md ly tudng vi du md rdng tien te, giam t h a m h u t ngan sach, va giam nd nUdc ngoai trong dai ban. Ndi mdt each k h i c , md cUa thUdng mai tao ddng cd cho ehinh phii cai td cich quan ly theo hUdng giam bdt can thiep va t a n g cUdng hieu qua de t a n g trUdng. Mac du quy md cua chinh phu cd the phinh ra dac biet la khi cd nhflng cu sdc ben ngoai thi viec tang them quy md cua chinh p h u khdng p h i i luc nao cung cd ldi cho t a n g trUdng do nd se lam giam bdt vai trd cua k h u viic tU n h a n va gay ra viec d a n h thue q u i mUc. Do dd, tac ddng lan truyen ciia md cUa vdi tang trudng thdng qua nhdm chinh sach cua chinh phu van ehUa rd rang, phu thude vao sii can bang gifla tac ddng tich ciic ciia gdi chinh sach kinh te vi md va nhflng chi phi cho viec can thiep cua chinh phu.
Nhflng lap luan eho phan bd va phan phd'i dupe bat ngudn tfl ly thuyet kinh te cd dien bi chi phdi bdi ly thuyet ve ldi the so sanh. Theo dd, cac qud'c gia deu cd ldi khi t h a m gia thUdng mai va chuyen mdn hoa vao n g a n h san xuat cd hieu qua n h a t cua minh. Do sii canh t r a n h bi gidi han bdi quy md ciia thi trUdng nen tii do hoa thUdng mai ed the la mdt cu day eho d i u t u ndi chung va cho hang hoa tU ban ndi
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NGHIEN Cl/l) - TRAO DOI TAC DONG CUA CHfNH SACH Tl/DO HOA NHAP KHAU Odl VOI TANG TRI/SNG KINH Tf...rieng. Mdt gia dinh khac la gia ca linh hoat de tii do hoa thUdng m a i cd t h e t a o dieu kien eho sU hdi t u g i i ca, nhflng nUde ed chinh s i c h md cfla thUdng m a i n h i n chung se cd mUe gia t h a p hdn va gia ea it hi bdp mee hdn, tflc la cd nhflng dieu kien td't chd tang trudng hdn cae nUdc ddng ciia.
Ldi ich ddng eua thUdng m a i dUde r u t ra tfl ly thuyet mdi ve t a n g trUdng ndi sinh trong dd n h a n m a n h vai trd q u a n trpng ciia ddi mdi cdng nghe va n a n g s u a t trong q u i trinh p h a t trien. Ldi ich ddng ciia thUdng mai ddi vdi t a n g trUdng k i n h te cd the dUdc the hien thdng qua viec eai thien cac yeu td' n a n g s u a t tong hdp (TFP), dac biet thdng qua tac dpng lan toa ciia FDI va nhflng tac ddng ddi mdi eua x u a t k h a u . Tii do hoa thUdng m a i d a t cac n h a s a n x u a t trong nude vao vi t r i phai noi theo nhflng cdng nghe ngudn c u a cae nUdc cdng nghiep, c h i n g h a n nhU vi du t h a n h cdng cua viec chuyen ddi cd cau x u a t k h a u tfl ndng nghiep sang cdng nghiep nang, cudi cung la sang nhflng h a n g cdng nghe cao ciia cae nUdc Ddng A. FDI t h u d n g di vdi t u do h o i thUdng mai va m a n g vao d a t nUde dupe d i u t u nhflng h a n g tU b a n hien dai va viec phd bien kien thflc chuyen mdn, nhflng yeu td'cd the kich thich t a n g trUdng manh hdn ea gia t r i tien bae cua FDI.
Vdi gia dinh la 6 k e n h t r e n ed the t h a u tdm tean bd t i e dpng ciia chinh sach thUdng mai ddi vdi t a n g trUdng, Wacziarg (2001) da xay diing mdt md h i n h cau true, va Ude lUdng b i n g phUdng p h a p 3SLS.
PhUdng phap nay d a t dUdc sU thd'ng n h a t bang viec phd'i hdp gia dinh ve bien n g l u nhien, nhflng dac diem ciia bien cdng cu trong viec xU ly tinh ndi sinh, va hieu qua eua quy hdi binh phUdng td'i thieu tdng quat h e l . Wacziarg (2001) da sfl dung mpt tap hpp nhieu bien cdng eu de didn t a sii p h i t trien eiia nhflng ly t h u y e t t a n g tUdng kinh te hien dai, dac biet la nhflng yeu to quyet dinh eua md h i n h khdng gian va md hinh kinh te vi md.
3.2 Khung phdn tich
Chung tdi di theo y tudng, phUdng phap ude lUdng va mdt so' bien trong cdng trinh cua Wacziarg nhU p h l n giai thich phia tren de xac dinh nhflng ye'u to' quyet dinh eho t i e ddng ciia tii do hoa nhap khau dd'i vdi tang trUdng d Viet Nam trong giai doan 1986- 2006. Tuy nhien, khac vdi Wacziarg (2001), nghien cflu nay khdng gdp xuat khau trong ehi so' dp md ma sii dung ehi so' tU do hoa nhap khau de chi ro viec dd bd nhflng quan ly cua Nha nUde ddi vdi nhap khau bing thue va NTBs. Trong khi dd, xuat khau thi khdng hi chinh phii Viet Nam h a n che va dupe dUa ra nhU mdt kenh lan truyen tie ddng tfl tfl do h o i nhap khau ddi vdi tang trUdng kinh te. Ngdai ra, Wacziarg (2001) sfl dung dau tU de phan I n h ea t i e ddng ve mat quy md l l n chat lUdng (bing viec tang len ludng hang hoa tU ban vao qud'c gia va bing xu hudng ldi n h u a n tang theo quy md do chuyen mdn hoi). O d l y , t i c ddng ve mat quy md eua d i u tU ddi vdi tang trudng dUdc do ludng true tiep b i n g bien vd'n tU ban va tac ddng ve mat chat lUdng cua dau tU dUde the hien b i n g TFP trong phUdng trinh tang trUdng, trong dd bien phu thude la td'c dp tang trudng chfl khdng phai la td'c dp tang trUdng theo d i u ngUdi nhU Wacziarg (2001).
Thay vao dd, thUdng mai npi dia (DTRA) dupe them vao nhU la mdt bie'n the hien tinh hieu qua cua phan bd va phan phdi hang hoa va dich vu, chfl khdng chi la hieu qua trong viec phan bd va phan phd'i eua vd'n tfl ban nhu trong ly thuyet truyen thd'ng. Nhflng gia dinh n g l m dd la viec gia tang sfl tham gia cua khu viic phi Nha nfldc trong thfldng mai ndi dia se td't hdn eho tang trfldng kinh te khi thUdng mai dUde tii do hoa d Viet Nam.
Ngoai ra, md hinh cua Wacziarg (2001) s i diing phan tich lien qud'c gia trong khi md hinh ciia chung tdi sfl dung chudi thdi gian de nghien eflu met qud'c gia. Do vay, sii lUa chon cua cac bie'n, cflng nhfl la bie'n gia can phai dupe thay ddi sao cho phu hdp vdi hoan canh cua kinh te Viet Nam. Vi du nhfl ehung tdi khdng can bie'n chi sd dan chu, bie'n gia ve dao, sii phan hoa ngdn ngfl dan tde, hoac bie'n ve
QUAN Lt KINHTE
Slf29(1U12/2009)
TAC DONG CUA CHINH SACH TU DO HOA NHAP KHAU D6I VOI TANG TRUONG KINH Tf.. NGHIEN CIA) - TRAP DPI [ ^ H
ddc lap sau chien tranh de dieu chinh sii khac biet cua cac nUdc. Thay vi vay, mpt vai bien cho dan so' va giio due vi du nhU tudi thp cua nam va nfl, ODA, sd'lUdng cac dii an FDI, ty le hpc sinh tren phd thdng trung hpc trong tdng so dan, sd' lUdng sinh vien, va phln tram cua dan so' sd'ng d thanh thi dUdc sfl dung.
O cap dp tdng quat, ham san xuat cua mdt nen kinh te ed the dUde bieu dien bang ham Cobb-Douglas nhU sau:
Y = AK''L' ]-a
Trong dd, A the hien trinh dp cdng nghe, K vd'n vat chat, va L lao ddng. L i y vi phan theo thdi gian chd quan he Solow vdi nhflng chfl cai cd dau cham the hien sfl thay ddi ve so' Ifldng
Y A K ^^ r
— - — -\-a — - H ( 1 - « ) —
Y A K L
Diia t r e n dang thflc ddn gian nay, trdng dd td'c dp t a n g trfldng dUdc gia dinh chi la phu thude vao t a n g trUdng ciia cdng nghe, vd'n hflu hinh, lao ddng va mdt d a n h sach cac bie'n dflde dfla vao vi tri ciia dinh td' cdng nghe (TFP)de t h a u tdm nhflng ldi ich ddng. Phfldng t r i n h t a n g trUdng GDP thay ddi dUde the hien trong phUdng trinh 3.
Nhflng chfl cai thUdng dien ta td'c dp t a n g trUdng (y, k, va 1), va 6 kenh la chi tieu cua chinh phii (GOV), c h i n h sach vi md (MACRO), meo md gia ca (BMP), phan phd'i lUu thdng trong nUde (DTRA), nang life ky t h u a t the hien bdi sii cai thien n a n g liic canh t r a n h xuat k h a u qud'c te (X) va chuyen giao cdng nghe (FDI). Sau bie'n nay gdp p h a n giai thich sU tien bd cua TFP khi tu do n h a p k h a u dUdc thiic hien.
Nhflng cdng eu dflde chpn de p h a n anh td't n h a t nhflng dac diem cua Viet Nam, vi du lae ddng theo gidi, viec hpc tap, mat dp dan sd', ODA va nhflng cu sdc cua chenh lech gia thfldng mai.
{3)y = p,+P2*k + p,*l + p,*GOV-\-p,*MACRO-\- + p^* BMP + /u^* DTRA + /u^* FDI + ^,* X
Bie'n cdng cu: lao ddng nam, lao ddng nfl, dan so'15, dan sd'65, eao dang, mat dp, ODA, so dfl an FDI, ToT
Sau dd, mdt he thd'ng phfldng trinh cd cau dupe xay diing de tinh den vai trd eua Mlib trcng tat ca cac phUdng trinh cho eae bie'n kenh trong dd tflng bie'n kenh ehinh lai dflde giai thich bang nhflng bie'n kenh khac.
Nhflng thdng sd'cho tflng bie'n di theo nhflng tranh luan cua nghien eflu kinh vien ve mdi quan he gifla thfldng mai va tang trudng cflng vdi phan tich ve tfl de hdi nhap khau cua Viet Nam va tinh hinh kinh te vi md.
Phan tich ve 6 kenh dflde trinh bay trong p h l n dfldi day.
3.2.1. Kenh thil nhdt: Quy mo cua chinh phu, (GOV).
Quy md cua chinh phii la mdt chi sd' quan trpng cho viec can dii cua khu viic cdng dd'i vdi nen kinh te. Tfl quan diem cua kinh te tfl do va hoc thuyet ban tay vd hinh, chinh phu can dii cang it thi cang td't cho nen kinh te. Tuy nhien, vai trd cua ehinh phu thfldng r a t quan trpng d cac nUde dang p h a t trien do viec thieu t r a m trpng elc cd sd ha t i n g cd ban tfl dUdng xa, c l u , cang, trUdng hpc, benh vien den he thd'ng tai chinh va luat phap. Trong khi mdt sd' nghien eflu p h a t hien ra quy md chinh phu t i e ddng tieu ciic den tang t r u d n g ( E d w a r d s 1992, Barro 1989), nhflng b i n g chUng eua tang trudng kinh te do xuat k h a u d cac nUde Chau a chi ra vai trd quan trpng cua ed sd ha t i n g hd trd cho xuat khau. Vinold va cdng sU (1990) da liet ke mdt loat nhflng van de kem hieu qua cua cd sd ha t i n g da han che su dap flng eua tdng cung dd'i vdi nhflng thay ddi chinh sach, dac biet la mdt he thd'ng mien thue va tiep can khdng h a n che cho d i u vao n h a p k h a u yeu kem, he thd'ng cang, cae phfldng tien truyen thdng va giae thdng khdng d l y dii, it thdng tin va nhflng dieh vu nghien cflu thi trfldng cho cac nha x u l t khau. Do vay, van cdn chfla chae r i n g quy md eua Nha nfldc ldn thi td't cho t a n g trfldng kinh te cua Viet Nam.
»r29nui2/2oog) QUAN Lt KINH it
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NGHIEN ClAl - TRAP DDI TAC DONG CUA CHINH SACH T U DO HOA NHAP KHAU D6I VOI TANG TRUONG KINH Tf..6 Viet N a m , C h i n h phii ddng vai trd chu dao trong nen kinh te vdi muc tieu tdi thfldng la p h i t trien va dn dinh mdi trUdng kinh doanh theo cae quy l u a t cua thi trUdng. Chi tieu eiia Chinh phii t a n g len trong thdi gian g i n day, n a m 2006 chiem kheang 32% GDP t a n g so vdi mflc 20% nam 1986. Mac du giao due, y te, va cac dich vu xa hdi khac da dUde xa hdi hoa, mdt p h l n ldn cua chi tieu Chinh p h u la d a n h cho tieu d u n g v a n g lai (ehiem 52,54% nam 2006, giam so vdi mflc 72,5%
nam 1986). Trung binh giai doan 1986- 2006, chi tieu vd'n cua Chinh p h u chiem khoang 27% tdng chi. D i u tU cua chinh phu gia cd'dinh 1994 chiem k h o a n g 53,8%
tdng d i u tu xa hdi, trong dd 52,6% tfl n g a n sach Nha nUdc, 13,6% tfl nd Chinh phu, va 14,6% tfl SOE va nhflng ngudn khac (chu yeu la tfl ODA). Mdt nfla d a u tU eua Chinh phu trong giai doan 2000-2005 chay vao phat trien cd sd h a t a n g bao gdm dien, gas, cap nUdc, van chuyen, dfl trfl, va thdng tien lien lac bdi vi Viet N a m v i n cdn thieu cd sd ha t i n g ca p h l n eUng va p h l n mem c i n thiet eho viec t r u y e n tac ddng cua thUdng mai den t a n g trUdng. Chat lUdng eua Chinh phu cd the la yeu td' q u a n trpng hdn quy md eua Chinh phu. Tuy nhien, v i n khdng the do hieu qua nhflng can thiep b i n g chinh sach cua Chinh p h u b i n g mdt chi sd' gdp. Do vay, de n i m b i t dflde tac ddng cua viec chi tieu eua Chinh phu hay la sfl can thiep cua Chinh p h u dd'i vdi nen kinh te, ty le tdng chi tieu chinh phu tren GDP dflde chpn la gia tri eho bie'n GOV. Phfldng t r i n h chd chi tieu cua ehinh phu (phUdng trinh 4) dUdc quy dinh de Mlib h e n he vdi c h a t lUdng vi md (MACRO), va sii meo md ciia ty gia (BMP). Hai bie'n nay dUdc chpn vi c h u n g cd quan he triic tiep vdi chinh sach tai k h c l va tinh hinh dn dinh k i n h te vi md, nhiem vu t r u n g t a m cua chinh p h u Viet Nam. Dau eua bie'n Eg dii kien la am, the hien viec giam bdt vai trd cua chinh p h u khi dat nUde bUde vao qua t r i n h tfl do h o i m a n h hdn va sfl gia t a n g vai trd ciia k h u
viic t u n h a n . Ben c a n h dd, S3 dflde dfl kien la dUdng va 84 am de p h a n a n h vai trd eua chat lUdng td't hdn eiia chinh sach kinh te vi md cung nhU tac dpng x a u cua gia ca bi bdp meo dd'i vdi quy md ciia chinh phii.
(4) GOV = €,+£,* Mlib + f 3 * MACRO + e, * BMP Bie'n cdng eu: dan so' 15, dan so' 65, mat dp, lao ddng cdng nghiep.
3.2.2. Kenh thii hai: Chdt liipng chinh sach vi mo (MACRO)
MACRO la mdt chi so' ve viec thiic thi chinh sach ben c a n h bie'n GOV de xac dinh sii dn dinh cua chinh sach kinh te vi md. Mdt t r o n g nhflng bai hoc quy bau tfl k i n h nghiem t h a n h cdng k i n h te cac nfldc Ddng a la sU duy tri t i n h dn dinh cua kinh te vi md, bao gdm mflc t h a m h u t tai khoa t h a p , mflc l a m p h a t t h a p , va ty gia dn dinh vfla p h a i (Vinold va cpng sfl 1990).
Tinh dn dinh ciia k i n h te vi md cd xu hudng tac dpng tich ciic den t a n g trfldng b i n g viec giam nhflng t h a t thfldng cua gia ca va h a n che t h a m h u t n g a n sach va nd ehinh phu, nhd dd m a giam t i e ddng thay the vai trd tU n h a n cua chinh p h u va cung cd'ele cdng ty t r o n g nUdc. Khi t i n h dn dinh cua k i n h te vi md, hieu life cua chi'nh sach, va viec thflc t h i cac hdp ddng khdng dflde duy tri, thi mdt qud'c gia khd cd the tang trfldng d mflc dp cao t r o n g mpt thdi gian dn dinh va t r o n g mot mdi trfldng kinh ddanh md ( P a n a g a r i y a 2004).
Nhiem vu ldn n h a t ciia Chinh phii Viet N a m d giai doan b a n d a u ciia cai each la dn dinh t i n h h i n h k i n h te vi md. D a t nfldc ci trong t i n h t r a n g d i n h dd'n vdi lam phat phi ma len den 874.7% vao t h a n g 12 nam 1986. Doi tien n a m 1985 b i n g viec dinh gia 10 ddng cu a n 1 ddng mdi da lam tii do hoa gia ca t r o n g nfldc nhUng khdng the kim h a m lam p h a t va phuc hdi ddng cd d i u t u cho den d a u nhflng n a m 1990.
Tuy nhien, t h a m h u t n g a n sach ciia Viet N a m , chii yeu la t h u tfl s a n x u a t dau md, ldi n h u a n eua c i c d o a n h nghiep nha nfldc va vien trd nfldc ngoai, ludn d trong
QUAN Lt KINH it
S6 29nu12/2009)
TAC DONG CCIA CHINH SACH T U DO HOA NHAP KHXU D<5I VOI TANG TRUONG KINH Tf... NGHIEN CIJHJ - TRAO DO! [ j J | i | J
tinh t r a n g t h a m hut. Ket qua la nd N h a nfldc chdng chat va dflde t h a n h toan chii yeu bang viec can ddi tien m a t trong cac ngan h a n g npi dia va vay nd nfldc ngdai.
Do vay, q u a n ly kinh te vi md cua Viet Nam tap t r u n g vao cac chinh sach dn dinh hoa tai khoa va tien te. Dieu nay dflde the hien thdng qua mdt chi so' gdp gdm ed 3 bie'n vi md: nd nfldc ngoai eua Nha nUde tren GDP (zl), t h a m h u t tai khoa t r e n GDP (z2), va chenh lech gifla td'c dp t a n g trfldng tien rpng M2 va td'c dp t a n g trfldng san Ifldng (z3). Viec xay dflng bie'n MACRO la dec lap gid'ng nhfl bie'n Mlib, do dd phfldng t r i n h (5) khdng n i m trong he thd'ng phfldng t r i n h kenh. Quyen sd'cho z l den z3 la 1/3 va gia tri ciia chung n i m trong khoang tfl 1 eho de'n 21 tuy theo thfl tfl sap xep trong giai doan nghien cflu. Chi so' chinh sach kinh te vi md (MACRO) dflde tinh theo phfldng t r i n h (5). G i l tri chi so' cang cao thi the hien ehinh s i c h cang td't. Chi sd' MACRO trong giai doan 2001-2006 la 13 cao hdn giai doan trUdc dd la 10.2.
{5)MACR0 = y,'
^,+x*. + X'
(6) MACRO = r],+ri,*Mlib-\-J],*GOV+ r],*BMP Bien cdng cu: ToT, ODA, lao ddng cdng nghiep.
PhUdng t r i n h (6) dien ta quan he gifla bie'n MACRO va Mlib va 2 bie'n ve ehinh sach tai khea va tien te, dd la quy md eua chinh phu (GOV) va chenh lech ty gia tren thi trfldng chd den (BMP). Dfl kien dau ciia ri2>0 do tfl do hoa n h a p k h a u cd tac dong tich ciic den mdi trUdng kinh te vi md. Ngeai ra, dau dii kien cua ri3 va r|4 la am, the hien t i c ddng trai chieu ciia tieu dung ehinh phu qua mflc va sfl meo md ciia ehinh sach kinh te vi md.
3.2.3. Kenh thdi ba: Chenh lech thi trudng chp den (BMP)
Chinh sach ngoai hdi cung la mdt cdng cu kinh te vi md q u a n trpng, dac biet ddi vdi cac nen kinh te md cfla, do tac ddng trflc tiep dd'i vdi n h a p k h a u va xuat khau.
Ty gia cd xu hfldng dflde dinh gia qua mflc khi 1) cd sfl khdng n h a t q u a n sau sac gifla tdng c l u trong nfldc va chinh sach ty gia hdi d o l i va 2) khi ehinh phu cd' gang duy tri mdt ty g i i d mflc t h a p de dd'i k h i n g vdi t a m ly khdng dn dinh cua dan chung hoac la t h a m h u t can can t h a n h t o i n (Rodriguez va Rodrik 1999).
Viet N a m cd ve nhfl khdng d i p flng dieu kien dau tien vi t h a m h u t trong can can t h a n h t o i n cd the dflde bu d i p b i n g FDI va kieu hdi. Tuy nhien, ddng Viet Nam da dflde pha g i i d i n dan tfl 80 VND/USD n a m 1986 len trong khoang 10000-12000 VND/USD trflde n a m 1997, va khoang 14000-16000 thdi gian sau dd.
Sfl khac biet gifla ty gia VND/USD gifla thi trfldng chinh thflc va thi trfldng chd den, d\i6c gpi la chenh lech ty g i i (BMP) va dflde chpn lam mdt chi sd cho sfl bdp meo g i i ca bdi vi nd p h a n I n h toan dien va ngay lap tflc chinh sach quan ly ngoai hdi eua Viet Nam. Vao n a m 1997, ty gia hd'i doai tren thi trfldng m a t gia ngay lap tflc khi ddng Viet Nam hi pha gia lam cho BMP dan ra. Ket qua la x u l t k h a u va n h a p k h a u co lai n h a n h chdng, nhflng chi sd ve chi tieu ehinh phu va kinh te vi md cflng bi suy giam.
Bie'n BMP dflde xac dinh trdng phfldng trinh (7), vdi d i u cua Y2<0, ed nghia la tfl dd hoa nhap khau se lam ty gia it meo md hdn nhd cd quan ly kinh te vi md hdp ly va thu hep gia nfldc ngcai va trong nfldc. Chi tieu chinh phu (GOV) va tdng clu trong nfldc (DTRA) dflde chpn lam bie'n giai thich cho BMP de phan I n h he thd'ng quan ly ty gia tha ndi cua ehinh phu va tieu dflng ndi dia dang phat trien d Viet Nam. Dau ky vpng eua hai he sd' nay lan lUdt la yS <0 va y4 >0, the hien t i e ddng bat ldi eua tieu dflng chinh phu qua mflc va tac ddng manh me cua sfl p h i t trien thfldng mai ndi dja ddi vdi he thd'ng ty gia tha ndi ed kiem soat.
(7) BMP = 7, + ^2 * Mlib + r,*GOV + y^* DTRA Bie'n cdng cu: mat dp, di hpc, ToT
Sir29(1U12/2009) QUAN Lt KINH it
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NGHIEN OiiU • TRAD DDI TAC D O N G C U A C H I N H SACH TU DO HOA NHAP K H X U 0 6 | V O I T A N G T R U S N G KINH Tf...3.2.4. Kenh thit tii: Thuang mqi npi dia (DTRA)
Bie'n DTRA la bie'n gia g i n cho k e n h Iflu thdng va p h a n phd'i de chi r a q u a n he trflc tiep gifla khu vUc dich vu vdi san x u a t va mflc c l u cho tieu dung tfl n h a n . Lien quan den TFP, tinh n a n g ddng va chuyen nghiep cua cdng tac dieu van se giup lam t a n g nang suat cua k h u viic san xuat.
Trflde tien, khi thfldng mai dflde tii do hoa, ap liie tfl canh t r a n h nfldc ngoai lam cho he thd'ng thfldng mai trong nfldc trd n e n cd hieu qua hdn, dd dd nhflng tien bd eua thfldng mai ndi dia se giup t a n g n a n g s u i t cua khu viic san x u a t sfl d u n g he thd'ng dich vu phan phdi ndi dia. ThU hai, khdng ehi khu vUe san x u a t ed t h e hUdng ldi tfl he thd'ng phan phd'i cd hieu qua hdn. T a t ea cae nganh trong nen k i n h te sfl dung d i u ra eua nhflng n g a n h k h a c lam dau vao eua minh cung dflde hfldng ldi nhd chi phi d i u vao t h a p hdn nhd ed he thd'ng p h a n phdi td't hdn.
Thfldng mai ndi dia cua Viet N a m dflde thflc hien b i n g he thd'ng t e m phieu cho den tan cud'i nhflng n a m 1980. Sau dd he thd'ng nay dflde thay b a n g he thd'ng theo ed che thi trfldng vdi sfl t h a m gia eua k h u vfle nfldc ngoai vao n a m 1994. Mac du he thd'ng ban le trong nfldc van cdn m a n h mun, ca ve ed sd h a t i n g va q u a n ly, doanh sd' ban trong nfldc t a n g len m a n h me trung binh d mflc 17.2%/nam va chiem khoang 80% cua tdng tieu dung. Vao n a m 2007, td'c dp t a n g trfldng cua thfldng mai ban le ndi dia xep thfl 4 t r e n t h e gidi, sau an Dp, Nga, va T r u n g Qud'c (Dinh 2007).
Vdi td'c dp t a n g trfldng k i n h te n h a n h va dan sd' tre, thfldng mai b a n le ndi dia cua Viet Nam (DTRA) c h i c c h i n la mdt k e n h ndi tfl do h o i n h a p k h a u vdi s a n x u a t va tieu dflng trong nfldc.
Ty le thfldng mai ndi dia h a n g hoa va dich vu ngoai qud'c doanh da dflde loai bd yeu td' lam p h i t t r e n GDP dUdc dung lam bie'n thay the cho DTRA. Ty so' nay the hien sii t h a m gia tfl do hdn cua k h u vfle tfl
n h a n va nUdc ngoai vao thUdng mai ndi dia, t h a y cho he thd'ng t e m phieu khi Nha nUde h o a n t o a n kiem soat viec lUu thdng p h a n phd'i h a n g hoa va dich vu. PhUdng t r i n h (8) Udc lUdng DTRA vdi bie'n giai thich la Mlib, xua't k h a u (X), dai dien cho q u a n he gifla thfldng m a i t r o n g nfldc va qud'c te. Dii kien tfl do hoa n h a p k h a u va x u a t k h a u se kich thich thfldng mai ban le ndi dia, tflc la ?^2>0 va ^3>0.
(8) DTRA = \+l,*Mlib + X,*BMP + X,*X Bie'n cdng cu: Thanh thi, ToT, mat dp 3.2.5. Kenh thii nam: Dau tU triic tiep nudc ngodi (FDI)
Dd'i vdi e l c nfldc d a n g p h a t trien, FDI la ngudn chuyen giao cdng nghe va n a n g cao n a n g s u i t q u a n trpng. Nhflng p h a n doan san x u a t qud'c te thfldng dflde thflc hien bdi cac cdng ty FDI. Nhd cd t i e ddng ngoai bien tich ciic ve hpc hdi lan n h a u , e l c nfldc d a n g p h a t t r i e n cd the tien len mflc tang trfldng cao hdn dfldi che dp thfldng mai tfl do hdn la che dp tfl cung tfl cap (Goh va W a n 2005). Bie'n FDI dflde sfl dung d day khdng p h a i de giai thich vd'n d i u tU tang len ma la tac dpng ngoai vi tich ciic cua FDI nhfl tien bp cdng nghe, tac dpng hpc hdi cua cac d o a n h nghiep t r o n g nfldc, hoac la dao tao lao dpng.
H a u het nhflng n g h i e n cflu ve k h u vfle FDI d Viet N a m da ehflng td q u a n he tieh ciic gifla FDI va tfl do h o i thfldng mai, va FDI va t a n g trfldng, dac biet la ve mat ddng vd'n dd vao eho d a u tfl va lan truyen cdng nghe theo n g a n h dpc. L u a t Dau tfl trflc tiep nfldc ngoai ciia Viet N a m dflde b a n h a n h vao n a m 1987 va s a u dd lien tue dflde siia ddi theo hfldng flu tien cho khu vfle FDI. Vao t h i n g 11/2007, 68,55% FDI thflc hien d a n h cho k h u vfle cdng nghiep va xay dflng, 6,93% cho ndng nghiep, lam nghiep, va ngfl nghiep, 24,52% cho khu vUe dich vu. Khi n e n k i n h te cdn ddng ciia, k h u vUe n h a nfldc t r o n g s a n x u a t va thfldng mai v a n cdn la chii dao nhflng san lUdng cdng nghiep va gia tri x u a t khau
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ciia khu viic FDI (bao gdm ca dau khi) tang len n h a n h ehdng (tfl 0% vao nam 1988 len 39% tdng san Ifldng cdng nghiep va 57.2% tdng x u a t k h a u vao n a m 2006) va tfl n a m 2003 da vfldt ea k h u vfle n h a nfldc. Tuy nhien, tac ddng thflc sfl cua FDI, dac biet la tac ddng lan toa van cdn la dieu chfla dflde giai dap do sfl t h o i i lui cua FDI sau k h u n g hoang tai chinh Chau A, va md'i q u a n he cua FDI dd'i vdi nen kinh te'Viet N a m van chfla chat che trong thdi gian nay.
Bien FDI lay gia tri b i n g p h l n ddng gdp san Ifldng cdng nghiep eua khu vfle FDI trong tdng san Ifldng cdng nghiep d gia ed' dinh (bao gdm ea d i u khi). Vi tri eua FDI trong nen k i n h te Viet Nam d\i6c khao sat d mflc vi md b i n g phfldng trinh (9) xac dinh nhflng dinh to' cua ty trpng san Ifldng cdng nghiep cua FDI va meo md tren thi trfldng chd den (BMP) de p h a t hien ra mdi lien he tfldng tac gifla d i u tfl nfldc ngoai va chinh s i c h ty gia. De kiem tra tac ddng bd trd eua tfl do hda thUdng mai dd'i vdi FDI, dii kien 02>O va 93<0.
(9) FDI = e,+e2*Mlib+ e,*BMP
Bie'n cdng cu: T h a n h thi, ODA, cao ding, ToT
3.2.6. Kenh thil sdu: Xuat khdu (X) Kenh cud'i cung dUde dieu t r a de tim ra tinh canh t r a n h qud'c te b i n g n a n g lUc cdng nghe gia t a n g cua x u a t khau. Gid'ng nhfl FDI, t i e ddng hpc hdi ciia xuat k h a u thfldng b trong k h u vfle cdng nghiep che' tao. So' lieu can cd cho x u a t k h a u h a n g cdng nghiep la ty trpng cdng nghiep n a n g va cdng nghiep n h e t r e n tdng kim ngach xuat khau. Tuy nhien, thfldng thi sd' lieu cho eho xuat k h a u khdng p h a n loai rd xuat khau khoang san va h a n g gia cdng xuat khau. Cae nhdm h a n g xuat k h a u chinh eua Viet n a m la san p h a m cdng nghiep n a n g va k h o i n g san (trung binh chiem 27,94% trong thdi gian 1986-2007), cdng nghiep n h e va thii cdng my nghe (32,27%), va ndng lam nghiep (39,79%).
Khi tdng gia tri x u l t khau vfldt qua mflc 40 ty USD n a m 2006 tfl mflc 800 trieu USD n a m 1986, xuat khau la mdt c l u ndi khdng the bd qua gifla tU do hoa n h a p k h a u va t a n g trudng kinh te d Viet Nam. De d a n h gia tien bd nang liie cdng nghe, bie'n gia eho xuat k h a u se la ty le h a n g xuat k h a u cdng nghiep trong tdng kim ngach xuat khau. Tuy nhien, do van de thieu sd' lieu thd'ng ke, ty trpng x u l t k h a u cdng nghiep nang va khoang san t r e n tdng kim ngach x u l t khau se dUde sfl dung cho bie'n x u a t k h a u (X). Trong phUdng t r i n h (10), X dUdc gia dinh la bi a n h hudng bdi tU do hoa nhap khau (Mlib) va q u a n ly ngoai hdi (BMP). Ky vpng d i u
la ( B 2 > 0 va a)3<0 do n h a p k h a u tU do hdn
cd the chuyen giao h a m lUdng cdng nghe eho xuat k h a u va ldi n h u a n chenh lech ty gia cd the lam h a n che xuat khau
(10) X = (o^+co2*Mlib + (o^BMP
Bie'n cdng cu: ToT, d i t dai, Thanh thi, eao dang
Tdm lai, k h u n g p h a n tieh cho he thd'ng kenh lan truyen t i e ddng cua tii do h o i thUdng mai den t a n g trUdng kinh te dUde md ta trong hinh (1). Nhflng bien chinh cua md h i n h la tfl do hoa nhap khau (Mlib), td'c dp t a n g trfldng (y), va ba nhdm cho 6 kenh. Hfldng cac mui ten chi tac ddng cua kenh. Lao ddng (1) va vd'n (k) la nhflng bie'n gdc cua ham tang trfldng.
Nhflng bie'n cdng cu dflde viet treng dau ngoac ddn va n i m ben dfldi nhflng bien chinh, trong khi nhflng bie'n trong ham flde Ifldng ngoai he thd'ng de xay dflng nen chi sd' thi trong ngoac va n i m ben phai.
{Cbn nUa).
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