The gidd: Van de - Su kien T a p c h i c a n g s d n
VONG DAM PHAN DO-HA
VA BAI TOAN BINH D A N G THUONG MAI
I , . . • <
THU TRANG
Thdng 7-2008, vdng dam phdn Dd-ha tudng nhu rai vdo nguy cadd vd nghiim trqng khi An Do vd My mdu thudn vi viec cdc nude ngheo tdng bieu thue nhdp khdu vd bdo hd ede ngdnh cdng nghiip. Song mdi ddy, ngdy 12-6-2009, Hdi nghi Bd trudng ldn thit 33 eua nhdm cdc nude xudt khdu
9 y 9
ndng nghiip (CGMM) ducyc td chiie tqi In-dd-ni-xi-a dd nhdt tri thue ddy khdi phuc tiin trinh ndy. Hy vqng vi ca hdi ndi lqi vdng ddm phdn da phuong ldn nhdt vi tu do hda thuong mqi todn cdu, du tinh se dem lqi
150 ti USD eho nin kinh ti thi gidi, vi thi lqi duac nhen lin.
M
OI dung quan trong nhat ciia vong dam phan D6-ha la day manh tien trinh tu do thuxmg mai hda the gidi, thiic day sir phat trien ciia cac nuac thanh vien dang phat trien. Nhirng bat dong giira My, cac nude phat trien va cac nude dang phat trien da khien tien trinh dam phan luon gap nhirng ran nut, thdi han de dat thda thuan Hen tuc bj cham tre. Trong khi dd, nen kinh te the gidi van chua thoat khoi cuoc khiing hoang tai chinh toan cau vira qua, khien xu hudng quay trd lai ciia chu nghia bao hp trd nen ro ret han bao gid het. Do do, tien trinh thuc hien cac vong dam phan D6-ha, mpt mat, viia cap thiet, nhung mat khac, cung gap nhieu kho khan han trudc.Tinh c§p thilt ciia thoa thuan D6-ha
Theo du bao dugc Td chirc Thuang mai the gidi (WTO) cong bd cudi thang 3-2009, thucmg m?i the gidi nam 2009 se giam xuong miic 9% - mux: giam manh nhat tii sau Chien tranh the gidi thir hai. So vod 5 nam Uudc, khi tang trudng cua
thuang mai the gidi la 25%, Tong Giam doc WTO, ong P. La-my cho rang, khung hoang tai chinh loan cau cung nhu tinh trang suy thoai cua cac nude da khien cho tinh linh hoat cua WTO gap nhimg ud ngai nhat dinh. Theo tinh loan, trong boi canh cua khung hoang trudc mat, neu vong dam phan D6-ha thanh cong, ciing voi cac hiep djnh thuang mai quoc te cong bang, viec giam thui Uen cac ITnh virc nhu nong nghiep va phi nong nghiep se tuong duong vai viec tien hanh diu tu khich le 150 ti USD. Dieu nay co y nghia rit quan Uong ddi vdi viec thiic day khoi phuc kinh tl toan ciu, giam ap Iuc tu cuoc khiing hoang ddi vod cac nude dang phat trien - von la nhirng nan nhan phai hirng chju nhieu anh hudng nhit tu suy thoai kinh te.
Song mot thuc tl la, sau khi Uan qua cac nen kinh tl phat triln, "can bao" khiing hoang kinh tl, tai chinh da ap tdi cac nude kem phat trien, gay ra nhimg hau qua lau dai va kho giai quyet
•* Pho truong Ban Quoc t6 va Ctiinti trj doi ngo^i, bao Thd gioi va Vi?t Nam, Bp Ngoai giao
So 802 (thang 8 nam 2009) 97
The gidd: Van de - Su kien T a p c h i c a n g s d n
Theo tien trinh thuc hien vdng dam phdn Dd-ha, ede nude giau phdi cdt gidm mqnh cdc khodn trq- cdp ndng nghiep. Theo dd, trong vdng 5 ndm,
V y
nhitng nude tra gid nhieu nhdt se phai cdt gidm mqnh nhdt nhu: Lien minh chdu Au (EU) gidm 80% sd tien tra cap
y y
vdi ngudng tra cdp tdi da Id 24 ti a-rd (38 ti USD); My gidm tdi 70%, cdn 14,5 ti USD; ede nude phdt triin khde giam khodng 50% - 60%.
han nhieu so vdi cac nude giau. Giong nhu can nha yeu chac chan se bj tan pha nang ne han trong bao, cac nude nay phai doi mat ciing mpt Iuc vdi hai khd khan, do la nguy ca bao hp mau dich va su canh tranh thu hut nguon tai chinh.
Quy Tien te quoc te (IMF) mdi day da phan tich ve nhihig kho khan von co ciia nhimg nude nay nhu thu nhap thap, nen kinh te kem phat trien, sue canh tranh thap, nay lai ganh chju them thach thuc trong tieu thu san pham khi buon ban loan cau sut giam manh ciing su "be quan toa cang" trong ap dung chu nghia bao hp mau djch tai cac nude giau. Khong nhirng the, hp lai khong nhan dugc cac khoan dau tu nhu trudc niia khi ngay chinh cac nude giau ciing dang phai "chay dua gianh giat eac nguon von" de rot vao eac gdi kich thich kinh te trong nude. Tham chi, viec cae nude giau thu hiit von dau tu de cuu nen kinh te npi dja con dugc mo ta nhu nhiing "chiec voi hut von khong 16 dang boat dpng het cong suat".
Rieng trong nam 2009, Ngan hang The gidi (WB) du bao cac nude kem phat trien c6 the se bj thilu hut tu 270 ti USD din 700 ti USD v6n diu tu tii ben ngoai; dong thdi canh bao eae the che tai ehinh quoc te se khong dii von de dap irng nhu cau ngay cang trd nen cap thiet, bdi ehinh cac the che nay ciing phai "that lung bupe bung", can bang ngan sach. Tieu bieu la viec IMF va WB ap dung cac chinh sach cat giam chi tieu cong, giam manh trg cap chinh phil nhu nhirng dieu kien tien
quyet eho eae khoan vay tin dung dang khien cac nude kem phat trien cang rod vao tinh canh khon don vi thieu von.
Doi vdi cae nude dang phat trien, tinh hinh cung khong may kha quan. Ngan hang The gidi nhan djnh khiing hoang tai chinh toan eau cung CO anh hudng dac biet nghiem ttpng den nen kinh te cac nude dang phat trien - nhirng nude von phu thuoc nhieu vao xuat khau, khong c6 du trir ngoai te va khong nhan dugc bat ky khoan vay nao.
NhCmg kho khan nay sinh
Khung hoang tai chinh khien giao djch thuang mai the gidi suy giam va ngugc lai, chinh su suy giam nay da tac dpng trd lai khien cho khiing hoang cang trd nen tram trpng. Sd dl co tinh Uang nay la do chinh sach that chat chi tieu cua chinh phii va ngudi tieu diing lam giam manh muc tieu thu d eae thi trudng nhap khiu. Ngoai ra, su troi day cila chil nghia bao hp mau dich, bao hp thuang mai cang khien kinh te the gidi kho hoi phuc. Canh bao cua WTO neu ro, phan irng "Ur ve" cila nhieu nude de ciiu eac nganh kinh te noi dja da khien hp khong thuc hien ldi keu gpi ngan chan su gia tang eac rao can thuang mai. Nhirng tac dpng qua lai nay da trd thanh vat can ldn khien tien trinh dam phan D6-ha ve ty do hoa thuang mai rod vao tinh canh kho khan ban trudc rat nhieu.
Tren thyc te, chinh mpt so quoc gia luon ho hao chil truong tu do thuang mai toan eau lai co nhiing each hanh xu co xiiy cho ehu nghia bao ho chir khong phai la ty do mau djch. Don cir trudng hgp cila My - nen kinh te ldn nhat the gidi va cung la nod phat Ip cupc khung hoang kinh te, tai chinh toan cau hien nay - hau het cac irng cir vien tdng thong, roi den tong thong deu cd sy each xa giiia ldi ndi va viec lam Uong cac chinh sach thuang mai. My luon la nude di dau trong viec tang cudng bao ho mau dich trong nude va khong man ma vdi vong dam phan ty do thuang mai toan cau cila WTO. Trong cac cupc Uanh eu tong thong My, bat ky iing cu vien nao ciing ed mot diem chung la cam ket "se bao ve cac nganh cong
98 s i 802 (thang 8 nam 2009)
Thd gidd: Van dd - Su kien T p p c h i c a n g s d n
nghiep va viec lam cho nguai dan My", ma muon bao v?, chi cd each gia tang chu nghia bao hp mau dich.
Khi cac nha san xuat tai nhieu ITnh vuc d My do khong canh tranh noi vdi hang hoa nhap khau da tap hgp lai de kien len Bp Thuong mai vi cho rang, nhu vay la canh tranh khong cong bang. Vu Uanh chap ca basa vdi Viet Nam la mpt trong nhimg minh chirng ro net phoi tran nhimg "tieu chuan kep" eua eac nude phat trien - nod van cao giong ho hao tiep can thj trudng toan cau. Nhirng ly le ve "kinh te phi thj trudng" hay "ban pha gia"
CO the de dang dugc ap dung eho mpt loat cac mat hang tir nhieu nude khac nhau. Qua do khuyen khich eae nha san xuat My van dpng hanh lang ching lai san pham cua nhihig nude ma hp khong dil sire canh tranh.
So lieu mdi nhat eiia WTO cho thay, cac rao can thui quan va phi thue quan da leo thang khi con bao khiing hoang kinh tl n6 ra. Tham chi mpt vai noi da dua ra cac gdi kich cau trong do bao g6m khuyin khieh cac san pham npi dja, ngan chan eac mat hang dac san nude ngoai nhap khau.
Khi lugng giao djch thuong mai tai chinh - chat boi tron eho thuong mai quoc te bj han che, tinh luu dpng v6n cQng bi thu hep, nhieu quoc gia lai cang roi sau vao suy thoai va doi mat vdi nhieu ap lue to ldn, phai ap dung chinh sach bao hp thuong mai. Day la ly do khien chinh phii cac nude khd ndi "khong" vdi nhihig bien phap nay va viec tham gia iing hp vong dam phan D6-ha dudng nhu trd thanh chuyen "lyc bat tong tam"
d6i vdi chinh phil cae nude trong suy thoai kinh te toan cau.
Bao ho mau dich: Loi ng§n, hai lau dai
Tang cudng chdng chu nghia bao hp trong thuang mai va tai chinh hon Iuc nao hit cin dugc coi la bien phap quan Upng hang diu dl thi gidi vugt qua nhung thach thik ma khung hoang tai chinh gay ra. Theo djnh nghia ma tap chi The Economist dua ra gan day, "chu nghia dan
tpc trong kinh te dong nghia vod nhihig n6 lyc
"giam giir" viec lam va cac dong von d trong nude". The Economist nhan djnh: "Bdi thi, chu nghia nay dugc xem la c6 thi khiln cuoc khung hoang kinh te hien nay ud thanh mot cuoc khiing hoang chinh tri va de dpa lam nghiem trpng them tinh trang suy thoai toan cau".
Trong so nhihig bieu hien ciia sy trd lai cua chu nghia bao hp kinh te phai ke tdi dieu khoan
"ngudi My diing hang My" trong dao luat kich thich kinh te mod day cua My. O mot so nude chau Au nhu Phap va Thuy Sy, cac ngan hang dugc khuyen khich nit von d nude ngoai ve nuoc va tang cudng cho vay trong nude, trong khi cac khoan vay ra nude ngoai bi giam sat chat che.
Hoat dpng han che cila cac dong von do bao ho, cung vdi sy riit lui ciia cac nha dau tu nude ngoai dang khien nhieu quoc gia dang phat trien lam vao tinh Uang kho khan nghiem Uong ve von.
Hang tin tai chinh Bloomberg dan so lieu ciia Vien Tai chinh Quoc te (IIF) cho thay, cac nin kinh te dang noi len d chau Au gom Nga, U-crai-na, Tho Nhi Ky va 5 nude Dong Au la thanh vien EU se chimg kien lugng von rong bj riit di len tdi 26,7 ti USD trong nam nay, so vod muc 241,4 ti USD va 396,1 d USD v6n rong chay vao khu vyc trong cac nam 2007, 2008.
Mdi day, Thil tudng 6-xUay-li-a K. Rut da noi vl "hieu irng do-mi-no" cila chii nghia bao hp khi nd dugc sir dung nhu mpt bien phap tire thoi ching khung hoang: "van de dang lo ngai la neu toi sir dung cac bien phap bao hp chong lai hang nhap khau thi ngudi lang gieng cua toi cung se lam tuong Ur. R6i each lam nay lan truyen tii nude A sang nude B, rdi tu nude B sang nude C, cu thi se tao ra "hieu irng do-mi-no". Dieu nay rat nguy hiem vi mpt khi dugc nhen nhom d mpt noi, cac bien phap bao hp se lam suy yeu the lyc chinh tri phan khang bao hp d noi khac bdi vi cac chinh tri gia la do cu tri trong nude bau ra". La mpt qudc gia phu thupe vao xuit khiu, 6-xtray-li-a to ra lo ling khi Qu6c hpi My dang nd lyc thong qua chinh sach "ngudi My mua hang My" va muon cu the hda chinh sach nay trong goi cuu trg kinh tl cua T6ng thing B.O-ba-ma.
S6 802 (thang 8 nam 20091 99
The gidd: Van de - Su kien T p p chf C ^ n g s d n
Pha rao can thuxmg mai: Can quyet tam chinh trj
Cupc hpp Dai hpi ddng WTO (thang 5-2009) thu thap dugc them nhieu sy dng hp cila eac nude cho mpt van kien da dugc 13 nude dy thao xung quanh viec sdm dat dugc thoa thuan ttong WTO ve vdng dam phan D6-ha - bien phap tot nhat de ngan chan chu nghia bao hp mau dich ttong con khiing hoang kinh te hien nay. Co sd dl ra ddi van kien nay la nhan thiie ve viec can ed cae dieu kien ehinh tri ngay cang thuan lgi doi vdi mpt thoa thuan buon ban mdi, ngay ea khi khung hoartg kinh te dudng nhu dang lam gia tang sire ep bao hp mau djch.
Ciing tai cupc hpp nay, van de lam the nao de ngan chan sy trd lai cila bao hp mau dich gia tang da trd thanh ehu de trpng tam. Bra-xin - quoc gia dai dien cho cac nude dang phat trien xuat khau nong san, da len an cac bien phap ttg gia xuat khau sira cda My va Ac-hen-ti-na; dong thdi keu gpi WTO giam sat eae bien phap bao hp mau djch de tap trung ban nira vao tac dpng eila eae gdi kich cau dang bop meo thuong mai.
Trong thong bao gui cac nude thanh vien ngay 26-5, Tong Giam doc WTO P. La-my cho rang da den lue can gia tang muc dp rang bupe ve mat chinh Ui, ddi mdi eae cam ket ve thuang mai va ho trg de sdm hoan tat vong dam phan D6-ha.
Dai hpi dong WTO ciing da di den quyet dinh trieu tap cupc hpp bp tnrdng day du vao cuoi nam nay vdi chil de: "WTO, he thong buon ban da phuang va moi trudng kinh te toan eau hien nay".
Viec nhan ra nhimg nguy co ro ret cua sy tai hoi chd nghia mau djch, de dpa true tiep den eac vong dam phan tu do hoa thuang mai thyc ra da trd thanh tam diem Uong eac cupc hpp ban ve khac phuc khung hoang ngay tii khi mdi bung phat. Thuc day dau tu thuang mai toan eau, ngan chan sy xuat hien trd lai cua chil nghia bao hp mau djch, bao dam nguon quy thich hgp eho cac to chirc tai ehinh quoc te trong viec can thiep vao eac nen kinh te thj trudng mdi noi chju tac dpng tir cupc khung hoang tai chinh toan eau la nhihig bien phap dinh hudng hanh dpng nham thao go khiing hoang kinh te ma Thu Urdng Anh G. Brao dua ra tai Hpi nghj thugng dinh G20 hoi thang 4
vua qua. Theo dd, IMF se tang cudng "nguon von" 750 ti USD dl giup cae nude gap khd khan ve tai chinh. Nhdm G20 cung cam ket khoan tien tri gia 250 ti USD nhim thue day thuang mai toan eau; nhihig quoc gia ngheo nhat the gidi se dugc tiep nhan khoan vien ttg tri gia 100 ti USD;
tung ra gdi kich thich kinh te "ldn chua tung c6"
khoang 5.000 ti USD vao cu6i nam 2010...
Tuy nhien, dd mdi ehi la cam ket hanh dpng va eae giai phap von ehu yeu tap trung vao viec giai quyet nhihig hau qua chir khong phai nguyen nhan sau xa cda khung hoang. Theo Chii tich WB R. D6-e-lieh, ve lau dai tinh ttang nay can dugc giai quyet bang viec thiic day hgp tac chat che giua eac nude cong nghiep phat trien, eac the che tai chinh quoc te va eac cong ty tu nhan. Ong nhan manh, eupe khiing hoang toan eau ddi hoi mpt giai phap toan eau. Cae nude can dau tu vao eae mang ludi an sinh, ket eau ha tang cung nhir nhirng doanh nghiep vua va nhd de tao viec lam, tranh tinh trang bat 6n ehinh tri, xa hpi. Trudc nguy CO kinh te the gidi se roi sau ban vao suy thoai, sy dong tam hgp tac, thda hiep va chung tay hanh dpng giiia cae nude la loi thoat duy nhat dua kinh te the gidi, kinh te cac khu vyc va moi quoc gia tirng budc thoat khdi khung hoang.
Cae chuyen gia cho ring giam giao dich thuang mai, keo theo giam san xuat la mpt bieu hien eye doan eua nen kinh te trudc khiing hoang.
Riit lui khoi ehinh sach kinh te md cira khong phai la mpt bien phap tot de chong khung hoang kinh te. Doi vdi nhiing nude phu thuoc vao thuang mai quoc te, nhirng thay doi ve chinh sach se phai tra gia dat. Ngoai ra, viec thi hanh cac chinh sach rao can ve kinh te khong phii hgp se khong the cd dugc su dong thuan trong no lyc chung de giai quyet khiing hoang. Cach doi pho hieu qua ehi cd tren eo sd nhan thiic va xir ly nguon goe cua van de. Cho tdi nay, thyc thi mpt he thong thuang mai md eua toan eau va cong bang van dugc cho la giai phap mang tinh toan dien va ben viing. Viec vong dam phan D6-ha dat dugc dong thuan chinh la phep thir chinh xac, the hien quyet tam ciia eac nude, dac biet la cae nude phat trien, cd san sang vdi binh dang thuang mai hay khong. •
100 Sl 802 (thdng 8 nam 2009)
