VAN DE - S I / KIEN
TRUNG TAM THONG TIN VA
Dlf BAO KINH TE - XA HOI QUOC GIA:
CHANG DlfdNG 5 NAM XAYDlfNG VA PHAT TRIEN
TS. LE D I N H A N
Giam doc Trung tarn Thong fin va Du bao Kinh te - xa hoi Quo'c gia
5
n a m - k h o a n g t h d i gian k h o n g p h a i la ngan n h a n g c u n g chi/a du d a i d o i v d i qua t r i n h x a y d a n g va phat t r i e n cua m o t d d n vj c a p T o n g cue t h u o c Bo Ke h o a c h va D a u t a - n h a n g do t h a c sU la da'u m o c quan t r o n g g h i n h a n sa t r a d n g t h a n h va Idn m a n h cua m o t d o n vj n g h i e n ciJu k i n h te t r o n g m o t iTnh vUc c h u y e n sau con n h i e u kho k h a n va t h a c h thufc.Trung tarn T h o n g t i n va D a bao K i n h te - xa hoi Quo'c gia dUOc t h a n h l a p t h e o Q u y e t d i n h so' 1 8 6 / 2 0 0 4 / Q D - T T g ngay 2 9 / 1 0 / 2 0 0 4 cua Thu t a d n g C h f n h p h u , la T r u n g t a m c a p quoc gia trUc t h u o c Bo Ke hoach va D a u tU, c6 c h a e n a n g " t h u t h a p t h o n g t i n , p h a n t i c h , d a b a o k i n h te - xa hoi trong nUdc va quo'c t e , cung c a p t h o n g t i n p h u c vu qua t r i n h hoach d i n h c h f n h s a c h , quSn ly nha nUdc ve k i n h te - xa h o i , to c h a e n g h i e n cufu khoa hoc t r o n g iTnh vUc t h o n g t i n va dU bao k i n h te - xa h o i ; to chCfc cung c a p cac d i c h vu t h o n g t i n k i n h te - xa hoi c h o c a c to chdc va c o n g d a n " .
Q u y e t d i n h t h a n h l a p T r u n g t a m T h o n g tin va D a bao K i n h te - xa hoi
National Center tor Socio-economic Information and Forecast (NCEIF), establistted in accordance witti Decision 186/2004/QD-TTg dated 29th October 2004 of Prime Minister, is a Center at national level under Ministry of Planning and Investment, operating as a research institution in the field of economic information, forecast and early warning. In the context of increasingly broader and deeper integration of our country into the world economy, the NCEIF's foundation has met urgent requirements from inte- gration process and showed special attention of the Government towards the work of socio-economic information and forecast under new condi- tions.
Experiencing 5 years, the NCEIF has obtained remarlcable achieve- ments in both terms of building its apparatus and organizing activities of conducting researches and analyses, providing information and forecasts on socio-economic issues domestically as well as internationally, con- tributing considerably to MPI's professional works and especially serving the process of policy making, plan formulation and macro regulation by the Government.
To celebrate 5 years of NCEIF's maturing and growing up, the Socio- economic Information and Forecast Journal would like to introduce the article written by Dr. Le Dinh An - Director General of NCEIF - about the process of its construction and development, the achieved results as well as its directions in the time to come.
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Q u o c gia daoc T h u tUdng C h f n h p h u ban h a n h trong b o i c a n h dat nadc d a n g tren da hoi n h a p n g a y c a n g sau, r o n g v d i k i n h te the g i d i . N h i l n g t h a y d o i n h a n h , m a n h cua n e n k i n h te t r o n g nUdc d o i h o i cac c h f n h s a c h , ke h o a c h , c h i e n lapc p h a t t r i e n k i n h te - xa h o i p h a i d a p c n g h i e n cufu theo phUcfng a n khoa h o c hon va p h a i luon luon daoc d i e u c h f n h m o t each k i p t h d i va p h u h d p . D a y la t h d i d i e m vai tro cua c o n g tac t h o n g t i n , d a b a o k i n h te - xa h o i c a n dUde n h i n n h a n m o t each n g h i e m t u c hdn bao g i d het. D a d e n l u c , c o n g tac t h o n g t i n , d a bao va c a n h bao k i n h te p h a i la m o t c o n g cu k h o n g the t h i e u trong d i e u h a n h n e n k i n h t e , n h a t la k i n h te vT m o .
H i e n t a i , n h i e u nUdc c6 n e n k i n h te p h a t t r i e n t r e n t h e gidi n h a A n h , P h a p , H a n Q u o c . . . d a to c h d c m o t he t h d n g chat c h e c a c c d quan l a m c o n g tac p h a n t i c h , d a b a o k i n h te p h u c vu hoach d i n h c h f n h sach va d i e u h a n h n e n k i n h te c u a C h f n h p h u . V i v a y , trade
So 47 (11.2009) THONG TIN S. DU BAO KINH TE - XA HOI
3
VAN DE - s a KIEN
nhOng bien dpng cua nen kinh te the gidi, Chfnh phu cac nadc nay da kjp thdi de ra nhSng chfnh sach phu hpp de ngan chan cac anh hadng xau va giO vQng sU on djnh cua nen kinh te quoc gia.
0 Viet Nam, Trung tam Thong tin va Da bao Kinh te - xa hoi Qude gia ra ddi tuy con cham so vdi cac nadc tren the gidi nhUng da dap dng dUdc nhOng yeu cau cap thiet cua nen kinh te hoi nhap, dong thdi the hien sd quan tam cua Chfnh phu doi vdi cong tac thong tin va dd bao kinh te - xa hoi trong tinh hinh mdi.
Ta khi thanh lap den nay, sau 5 nam hoat dong, dUde sU quan tam chi dao sat sao cua Ban Can sd Dang Bo Ke hoach va Dau ta cung nha dong chi Bp trudng, tap the can bo Trung tam da het sdc cd gang ve moi mat va dat dddc nhdng thanh tUu dang ghi nhan ca ve xay ddng bp may cung nha to chdc hoat dong nghien cdu, phan tfch, cung cap thdng tin va da bao kinh te - xa hoi trong nUde, qude te, dong gop vao hoat dpng chuyen mon cua Bp cijng nha phuc vu cong tac hoach djnh chfnh sach, xay ddng ke hoach va dieu hanh kinh te vT mo cua Chfnh phu.
Thac hien chdc nang va nhiem vu do Thu tadng Chfnh phu va Bp tradng Bp Ke hoach va Dau ta giao, ta khi dapc thanh lap den nay, Trung tam da khdng ngdng hoan thien va nang cao chat Iddng cdng tac thong tin va da bao kinh te - xa hoi. Trong 2 nam dau, Trung tam tap trung xay ddng cd sd ha tang, ky thuat va bo may, cu the la tuyen dung can bp, nghien cdu kinh nghiem quo'c te, kinh nghiem mot sded quan trong nadc trong viec xay dUng mot cd quan nghien edu; xay ddng chdc nang, nhiem vu cua Trung tam de trinh Chfnh phu quyet dinh, sau do xay ddng chdc nang, nhiem vu cua tdng Ban, tdng bo phan va hadng d i n , trao ddi de cac Ban thac hien; dong thdi xay ddng cac quy che lam viec, quy dinh mdi quan he cong tac trong ed quan...
KE HOACH V A D A U T O
TRAO TANG
Mac du phai mat rat nhieu thdi gian vda tim hieu, vda thac hien vi chda c6 hinh m l u nao trade do nen cong tac nghien edu chuyen mon thUe sU mdi daoc bat dau td gan 3 nam trd lai day, song nhang ket qua dat dddc da khang dinh Trung tam da va dang c6 nhOng bade di dung hddng.
Mot la, to chttc difac he thong thong tin, ca sd dO lieu phuc vu cho nghien cdru.
Trung tam da xay ddng dddc mot he thdng thong tin ed sd duf lieu Idn phuc vu cong tac nghien edu, phan tfch va da bao kinh te - xa hoi, gom ca cd sd do lieu sd lieu va cd sd dO lieu ta lieu trong cac ITnh vUc kinh te vT mo, doanh nghiep, thj tradng, gia ca, kinh te the gidi, tai chfnh - ngan hang, tai nguyen quo'c gia, kinh te - xa hoi dja phddng, vung kinh te trong diem, khu cdng nghiep - khu che xua't va ed sd dO lieu van ban quy pham phap luat. Cac ed sd dO lieu deu da hoan thien phan mem khai thac, ed mot kho'i Iddng dd lieu, sd lieu dang ke dap dng cd ban yeu cau nghien edu va da bao kinh te.
Hal la, nghien citu va cung cap cac san pham thong tin va dit bao kinh te - xa hoi cho cac cd quan I anh dao cua Dang, Nha nUdc.
Trong 5 nam qua, Trung tam da thac hien nghien edu va xua't ban 55 so' Dac san chuyen de phuc vu lanh dao, 24 sd B^n tin thong tin chpn loc phuc vu lanh dao, 51 sd Ban tin dieu hanh kinh te - xa hoi; 93 sd Tuan tin kinh te - xa hoi va 46 sd Tap chi Thdng tin va Da bao Kinh te - xa hoi.
Npi dung cac a'n pham tap trung vao nghien edu, phan tfch tinh hinh kinh te - xa hoi trong nUde, quo'c te, td do kip thdi dda ra nhdng nhan djnh,
THONG TIN S. DU BAO KINH TH - XA HQI So 47 (11.2009)
danh gia va dd bao, canh bao ve nhdng diSn bien tiep theo cua nen kinh te.
Cac an pham nay dddc gdi ddn Lanh dao Bp va cac Vu thuoc Bp Ke hoach va Dau td de tham mdu vdi Lanh dao Bp trong qua trinh xay ddng ke hoach, chien Iddc phat trien kinh te - xa hoi. Ngoai ra, cac an pham cua Trung tam cung ddpc gdi den Bp Chinh tri, Van phong Chinh phu, Quoc hoi, mot sd bp, nganh lien quan de lam tai lieu tham khao trong cong tac quan ly va dieu hanh nen kinh te cung nha trong qua trinh hoach djnh chinh sach. Nhieu bao cao phan tfch va da bao cua Trung tam da dddc ghi nhan va dda vao bao cao chung cua Bp Ke hoach va Dau td trinh Thu tadng Chinh phu tai cac phien hop cua Chinh phu. Mot sd dac san chuyen de cua Trung tam dddc Qude hoi yeu cau cung ca'p cho cac dai bieu tham khao tai cac ky hop Qude hoi.
Can day, cac bao cao phan tich va da bao ve nhdng dien bien trong thdi ky khung hoang kinh te cua Trung tam da thUe sd thu hut sd quan tam cua cac nha hoach dinh chinh sach, cac chuyen gia kinh te va dong dao ban doe nhd:
- Dac san "Nhln lai chang dudng 3 nam tht/c hien Nghi quyet Dai hoi Dang X ve ke hoach 5 nam phat trien kinh te - xa hoi 2006-2010".
- Dac san "Khung hoang tai chinh toan cau - thach thUc va ca hoi doi vdi Viet Nam".
- Dae san "Tac dong cua khung hoang tai chinh den thi trUdng lao dong va du bao cung cau lao dong
Viet Nam den nam 2015".
Ngoai ra, Trung tam con xua't ban mot so' cudn sach thu hut dong dao
ban doe quan tam va dddc cac chuyen gia kinh te trong nddc danh gia cao ve sd phan tfch sac sSo, sat thpc vdi tinh hinh kinh te - xa hoi cua dat nddc trong giai doan hien nay:
- Cud^n sach "Ban ve chien luac phat trien kinh te - xa hoi cua Viet Nam 2011-2020";
- Cudn sach "Boi canh trong nUdc, quoc t4 ve viec nghien cufu xay dung chien lUcfc 2011-2020";
- Cudn sach "Viet Nam - Diem den ly tudng de hap tac va dau tU".
Ba la, day manh cong tac nghien cufu khoa hoc.
Trung tam da nghien edu va bSo ve thanh cong 27 de tai nghien edu khoa hoc cap Bp, 11 de tai nghien edu khoa hoc cap cd sd, c6 gia tri cao ca ve mat ly luan cung nhd thac tiSn. Viec thac hien cong tac nghien edu khoa hpc da gop phan nang cao nang kfc cho dpi ngu can bp, vien chdc cua Trung tam, dong thdi, xay ddng dddc phddng phap luan khoa hpc ddi vdi cong tac phan tfch va da bao.
Bon la, tham gia tich ct/c vao cong tac chuyen mon ciia Bg Ke hoach va Dau tU.
Trong 5 nam qua, Trung tam da khong ngdng no Idc va e d g i n g de cd nhdng dong gop du van eon khiem ton ddi vdi cong tac chuyen mon cua Bp thong qua viec tham gia xay ddng cac bao cao dinh ky hang thang, hang quy, hang nam ve tinh hinh kinh te - xa hoi trong nUde, qude te theo yeu cau cua Lanh dao Bp, cac bao cao dot xua't phuc vu giao ban cua Lanh dao Bp vdi Chfnh phu, cac bai phat bieu, tra Idi chat van cua Bp trddng trade Qude hoi. Dac biet trong nam 2007-2008 vda qua, tinh hinh kinh t e - xa hoi dat nddc ed nhieu bien dpng do chiu anh hadng cua khung hoang kinh te toan cau va nhdng thach thdc khi gia nhap WTO, Trung tam da c6 nhieu bao cao phan tfch, thong tin va dd bao, kjp thdi phuc vu cong tac xay ddng va dieu hanh ke hoach cua Bp nhd cac bao cao dp bao d i l n bien cua khung hoang va anh hadng cua no tdi kinh te Viet Nam, dd bao anh hadng cua khung hoang den xua't khau, den cac chi tieu kinh te vT mo cua Viet Nam. Dong thdi chu dpng tham gia xay ddng ke hoach phat trien kinh te - xa hoi giai doan 2009- 2010 va chien Iddc den nam 2020; tham gia y kien xay ddng De an
"Tai ca cau nen kinh te"; bao cao tham gia y kien vdi Lanh dao Bp ve gdi kfch cau cua Chinh phu.
Gida nam 2009, Lanh dao Bp da giao Trung tam chu tri xay ddng 1 trong 3 de an quan trpng cap Nha nddc do Bp chiu trach nhiem thac hien ve "Tang cUdng nang cao chat luang cong tac dU bao ve nhang ITnh vUc kinh te - xa hoi, quoc phong, an ninh, doi ngoai d tam vT md" de tham mUu cho cac ed quan hoach dinh chfnh sach cua Dang va Nha nUdc.
Nam la, day manh hap tac quoc te.
Trung tam da xay dpng va cung ed cac mdi quan he vdi nhieu td chdc qude te, cac nddc trong khu vac va tren the gidi ve hdp tac
So 47 (11.2009) THONG TIN & DU BAO KINH TE - XA HOI
VAN DE - Sir KIEN
trong ITnh vdc thong t i n , dp bao, canh bao kinh te - xa hoi nha: lanh dao sang sudt, day trach nhiem Trung tam Thong tin Qude gia Trung Qude, Hpc vien Chfnh sach cua Lanh dao Bp Ke hoach va Dau ta Phat trien Han Qude (KDI), Cd quan Hdp tac va Phat trien Han cung nhd sp quan tam cua Lanh dao Qude (KOICA), Chinh phu Nhat Ban... Trong khudn khd chUdng trinh D^ng, Nha nadc ddi vdi cong tac kho hdp tac qude te, Trung tam da td chdc dddc nhieu doan khao sat, khan, mdi me va con non tre nay.
hpc tap, tham gia hoi thao d nddc ngoai nham chia se kinh nghiem Vdi nhdng n6 Idc dd, Trung tam ve thong tin va dd bao kinh te - xa hoi, nang cao nang Ipc phan tfch Thong tin va Da bao Kinh te - xa hoi
kinh te va mo phong chfnh sach, cac giai phap dng pho vdi khung Qude gia da vinh da dapc don nhan hoang kinh te the gidi, dong thdi cung nhan dddc sd ho trd tfch eUc Cd thi dua cua Thu tadng Chinh phu td cac ddi tac qude te (dac biet la Han Qude va Trung Qude) ve xay danh cho ddn vi d i n dau phong trao ddng mo hinh canh bao sdm d Viet Nam, xay ddng kenh chia se thi dua nam 2008 cung vdi Bang thong tin Viet Nam - Trung Qude... khen cua Thu tddng Chfnh phu; dong
Trung tam cung da mdi cac chuyen gia Trung Quo'c sang trao ddi ehi Giam ddc Trung tam vinh dd kinh nghiem, chuyen gia Han Qude sang xay ddng mo hinh dd bao nhan danh hieu Chien sT thi dua toan kinh te; phdi hop vdi Han Qude, Trung Qude td chdc cac Hoi thao qude.
qude te ve tac dpng cua khung hoSng kinh te; dong thdi da td chdc Dat nddc dang phat trien theo cho 7 ddt can bp di hpc tap d Trung Qude, Han Qude, Thuy Dien... hddng hoi nhap kinh te qude te ngay vdi gan 100 Iddt can bp tham gia. cang sau, rpng la nhOng dieu kien
Sau la, xay dung va hoan thien to chiic bo may. thuan Idi nhdng cung dat ra yeu cau Khi dddc Chinh phu ra quyet djnh thanh lap, nen mong ban dau ngay cang cao do'i vdi cong tac thong cua Trung tam Thdng tin va Dd bao Kinh te - xa hoi Qude gia mdi tin va dd bao kinh te - xa hoi. Ben chi la mot ddn vj cap Vu, gom 20 can bp, vien chdc, nguon Ipc canh viec tiep tuc kien toan cd cau td thong tin va phUdng tien ky thuat gan nha khong cd gi. Den nay, sau chdc, dao tao dpi ngu nhan Idc de 5 nam thanh lap, Trung tam da xay ddng va kien toan cd ca'u td moi nghien edu vien la mot "chuyen chdc gom 9 ddn vj trde thupc, trong do cd 7 Ban chuyen mon lam gia" trong iTnh vdc nghien edu cua cong tac nghien edu, phan tfch thong tin va dd bao kinh te - xa hoi minh, Trung tam tiep tuc phat trien gom: Ban Nguon va Phat trien thong tin. Ban Tong hdp. Ban Phan theo hadng nang cao chat Iddng cong tfch tong hdp va Dd bao vT m5. Ban Thong tin doanh nghiep va thj tac thong tin va day manh hdn nda trddng, Ban Nghien edu va Phat trien dng dung thong tin. Ban Hdp cong tac dd bao, canh bao kinh te - tac qude te va Dao tao, Chi nhanh mien Nam. xa hoi, gan hoat dpng nghien edu
Cung vdi sd on dinh va phat trien ve cd cau td chdc, nguon nhan cua Trung tam vdi cong tac chuyen Idc cua Trung tam cung ngay mot Idn manh. Dpi ngu can bp, vien mon cua Bp, lam tdt vai tro mot ed chdc cua Trung tam dddc nang len ca ve so' ladng l i n cha't lapng vdi quan thong tin, da bao kinh te - xa tong sd can bp hien tai la k h o i n g 100 ngddi, trong dd hau het ed hoi cap qude gia.
trinh dp dai hoc, 3 0 % la thac sy va tien sy. So' can bp, vien chdc Trong Bao cao cua Chfnh phu tai lam cong tac nghien edu khoa hpc chiem da sd (khoSng 70%). phien khai mac ky hpp thd td, Qude Ben canh do, Trung tam cung tdng bddc kien toan va phat huy hoi khoa XII, Thu tddng Nguyin Tan vai tro ehi dao, lanh dao cua Dang Bp, day manh hoat dpng cua cac Dung da ehi dao: "Phai quan tam, td td chdc doan the nhd Doan Thanh nien, Cong doan. Ban Nd cong... chdc tdt cong tac dd bao va phan nham xay ddng mot tap the Trung tam ben vdng, doan ket, tao moi tich kinh te. Hien nay, cong tac nay tradng td't de can bp, vien chdc Trung tam phat trien toan dien cS chda that sddape coi trong dung tam, ve chuyen mon, nghiep vu l i n ddi song vat chat, tinh than. chaa dddc td chdc chat che, hieu q u i Dat ddpc nhOng thanh tdu neu tren thac sa la no lUc to Idn cua va thieu cd che thfch hdp de tranh tap the Lanh dao va toan the can bp, vien chdc Trung tam dddi sd thu y kien cac chuyen gia doc lap".
R THONG TIN & Dd BAO KINH Tt - XA HOI So 47 (11.2009)
N h a n t h d c ro y k i e n c h i d a o nay, T r u n g t a m da c6 n h d n g p h d d n g h d d n g hoat d p n g cu the trong n h d n g n a m t i e p theo n h d sau:
- Hoan thien va sdm dda vao sd dung rpng rai he thdng thong tin c d sd d d lieu cap qude gia ve cac ITnh vpc kinh te - xa hoi.
- Phdi h d p vdi c a c b p , n g a n h c h u chdt trong bp m a y nha nUde d e trao d d i , thd'ng nhat, cd sU pho'i h d p c h a t c h e , t h d d n g xuyen n h a m dda c o n g t a c t h o n g t i n , d d bao d i vao n e n n e p , n a n g cao chat Iddng, hieu quS va p h u c vu kjp t h d i c o n g tac d i e u h a n h cua C h f n h p h u .
- D u y tri va m d r p n g c a c mo'i quan he h d p tac qude te de t i e p c a n c a c p h d d n g p h a p d d bao t i e n t i e n t r e n t h e g i d i , t d d d n g h i e n edu va x a y d p n g phUdng p h a p d a bao p h u h d p v d i d i e u k i e n cu the cua nen kinh te V i e t N a m .
- Duy tri va m d r p n g quan he v d i c a c c h u y e n gia k i n h te trong n d d c va qude te de t h a m v a n y k i e n c h u y e n gia t r o n g qua t r i n h l a m c d n g tac d d b a o .
D i e n bien nen k i n h te trong nUde va qude te thay ddi n h a n h ehdng k h i e n c h o cac chfnh sach k i n h te c u n g p h a i cd sd thay ddi linh hoat de phu h p p v d i yeu cau phat trien cua dat nddc trong tdng t h d i ky.
De cd nhdng c h f n h sach kjp t h d i va p h u hdp, vai tro cua cong tac t h o n g t i n , d d bao la het sdc quan trpng. V i vay, n h i e m vu dat ra ddi vdi Trung t a m trong n h d n g n a m t i e p theo thUe sd doi hoi n h d n g no Ipc to Idn cua ngUdi lanh dao c u n g n h a tap the can bp, vien chdc cua Trung t a m .
N h i n lai c h a n g d d d n g x a y d d n g va phat t r i e n 5 n a m da qua cua T r u n g t a m k h o n g c h i d e n h a m t d n g ket t h a n h t i c h , d u e rut k i n h n g h i e m ma c h f n h la de cd d p n g lac t h u e d a y T r u n g t a m t i e p tuc phat t r i e n hdn n d a , l a m tdt hdn nQa vai tro, c h d c n a n g , n h i e m vu ma Lanh dao Bp va T h u t a d n g C h f n h p h u d a g i a o . D
DAU HIEU PHUC HOI KINH TE THE GIdl RO NET HON
CuQc khung hoang tdi chfnh nd ra tgi My v a o cuoi nam 2007 vd sau do Ian ra todn c a u da t d c dpng tieu cUc tdi nhieu nude tren the gidi, cy the id tang trUdng a m tgi hdng iogt c d c nen kinh te idn, thUOng mgi vg d a u tU guoc te sut giam, that nghiep ian tran... Tuy nhien, trdi quo g a n hai n a m , ngay c d n g CO nhieu d d u hieu cho thdy c u p c khung hoang da c h g m d a y , b a o hieu sU phuc hoi c u a kinh te the gidi trong thdi gian tdi.
Trade h e t doi vdi nen kinh te IVIy, theo nhieu phan tfch gan d a y , suy thodi tgi nen kinh te idn nhd't the gidi ndy d a c h g m day. Sau 4 quy kinh te lien tuc di xuong, quy lii/2009, kinh te My d d d g t toe dp tang trUdng 3,9%, c a o hdn nhieu so vdi c d c d p bdo trade do. Da b d o v d o giOa nam 2010, kinh te My se di vdo on dinh vd tfnh chung c d nam 2010 c 6 the d g t mdc tdng tradng 2,5%. SU phuc hoi c u a nen kinh te My dUpe ddnh gia id y e u to rdt quan trpng thue d a y d d phuc hoi kinh te todn c a u , d g c biet id doi vdi nhOng nadc xud't khdu phu thupc nhieu v d o thi tradng My.
Tgi chdu A u , theo sd lieu thdng ke mdi nhd't do Co quan Thdng ke chdu Au (Eurostat) c o n g b d , nen kinh te khu vUe sd dung dong euro (Eurozone) d d thodt khdi suy thodi, vdi mdc tdng trUdng 0,4% trong quy 111/2009. Hai nen kinh te Idn trong khu vac id Phdp, Ddc d d thodt khdi suy thodi sou khi tdng tradng quy thd hai lien tiep. Tinh chung, kinh te c u a Uen minh c h d u Au (EU), bao gom ed nhOng nUdc khong sd dung ddng Euro nha Anh vd Thuy Dien, cung d d thodt khdi suy thodi trong quy iii/2009, vdi mdc tdng trUdng 0,2%.
Tgi khu vUc chdu A, theo ddnh gid c u a Quy Tien te Qude te (IMF), c d c nen kinh te c h d u A d d thodt ra khdi khung hodng vdi toe dd tUdng ddi nhanh. Dp b d o todn bp khu vUc c h d u A, gom c d Nhdt Ban, Oxtrdylia vd Niu Diidn, se d g t mdc tdng tradng 2,8% trong ndm 2009 v d 5,8% trong ndm 2010, c a o hdn so vdi mdc d a bdo cung do t d chdc ndy dUa ra v d o hdi thdng 5/2009. Trung Qude se Id nen kinh te d g t t d c d p tdng trUdng nhanh nhdt, vdi mdc tdng 8,5% trong ndm 2009 v d 9% trong ndm 2010. Cung theo ddnh gid eua IMF, kinh te Viet Nam se tdng tradng 4,6% trong ndm nay v d 5,3% trong ndm 2010, mdc c a o nhd't trong nhdm nadc ASEAN-5 (gom inddnexia, Malalxia, Philipin, Thdi Lan v d Viet Nam),
Tuy nhien, theo e d c djnh che todn e d u , nen kinh te the gidi vdn c a n ednh gidc trade mot sd nguy c d c d the xud't hien trong qud trinh phuc hdi, d d id: nguy c d bong bong c d phieu, bong bong nhd d d t c d the xud't hien trd igi v d bung nd neu khdng c d bien phdp ngdn chdn sdm; t y ie that nghiep c a o d c d c nadc gidu idm tdng d p Ipe khien c d c nadc ndy phdi tdng rdo c a n hay theo dudi dUdng idi b d o hd thUOng mgi; nguy e d igm phdt c a o khi e d c nadc tiep t u c bdm nguon tdi chfnh khdng id de kfch thfch nen kinh te trong n a d c . D
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So 47 (11.2009) THONG TIN S. Dd BAO KINH TE • XA HOI
