Nghidn cuTu & Trao doi i
HOAT DONG CUA BAO VA AP THAP NHIET DQI 6 TAY BAG THAI BJNH DUONG VA BIEN DONG NAM 2008
TS. Nguyin Van Thing, TS. Dang Thj Hdng Nga,
ThS. Tran Dinh Trpng, KS. Dao Thj Thuy, CN. Nguyin Thj Xuan
Trung tam Nghien cuu Khf tugng - Khf hau - Vien Khoa hpe Khi tugng Thuy van va Mdi trudng
H' at ddng eua bdo vd ATND a khu vue Tay Bae Thdi Binh Duang, Biin Ddng vd dnh hudng din Viet Nam trong nam 2008 ed nhung dae dlim sau:
- si lugng ede can bdo manh vd rit manh hoat dpng tren khu vue Tdy Bde Thdi Binh Duang it hon trung binh thdi ky chuin (1971 - 2000), nhung cudng do eua cdc can bao manh nhit tren khu vue ndy manh hon trung binh cudng dp ede can bao manh nhit ghi nhdn duge theo day si lieu thdi ky chuin (TKC). Tdng cpng cd 22 XTND dat cip bao, it hon trung binh TKC (26,7 can);
- Tren khu vue Biin Ddng, nam 2008 ed sd bdo va ATND, eung nhu sd bao rit manh diu nhiiu han so vol trung binh TKC, vd cudng dp cua ede eon bdo manh nhit tren khu vuc nay cung manh hon so vol trung binh cudng dp cdc con bao manh nhit TKC. Day la nam thu 6 lien tiip (ki tir nam 2003) ede eon bao manh d Biin Ddng cd cudng do manh han TKC;
- Cd 3 can bdo vd 2 ATND dd bp vdo Viet Nam, gin xip xl vdi TBNN (TBNN Id 5,6 can). Cudng do manh nhit eua bdo khi dd bd vdo Viet Nam Id 985 hPa vd 45 kts. Tuy ede can bao dd bp cd cudng dp khdng manh lam nhung cd nhu'ng can bdo da gdy mua rit Idn lam thiet hai nghiem trong vi ngudi va tdi sdn.
1. M6' dau
De eung cip nhanh thdng tin mua bao nam 2008, Trung tam Nghien
CLPUKhf tugng - Khf hau, Vien Khoa hpc Khf tugng Thuy van va Mdi trudng gidi thieu tdm tat tinh hinh hoat ddng cua bao, ap thip nhiet ddi gpi chung la xoay thuan nhiet ddi (XTND) tren khu vyc Tay Bie Thai Binh Dyang (TB TBD), Biln Ddng va do bd vao Viet Nam va mdt so dae
trung trung binh nhilu nam (thdi ky chuin 1971 - 2000) cua chung d l lam ca sd eho viec so sanh, danh gia va tong kit hoat ddng eua bao nam 2008.
Nhung phan tich chi tilt han v l mua bao nam 2008 se duge trinh bay trong cuon nien san "Bao va ap thip nhiet ddi hoat ddng d Bien Ddng va anh hudng din Viet Nam nam 2008". Phan b l cua XTND trung binh thdi ky 1971 - 2000 va nam 2008 dugc trinh bay trong bang 1.
Khu viic Hoat dong Tay Bac
TBD*
Bien Dong Do bo vao Viet Nam
Bang 1. Phan bo cua XTND trung binh th&i ky 1971 - Giai doan
1971-2000 2008 1971-2000
2008 1971-2000
2008 1 0,47
0,13 2
2 0,10
0,00 3 0,40
0,10
0,07 4
0,73 1 0,17
1 0,03
5 1,03
4 0,53
1 0,07
6
1,83 1 1,30
1 0,50
7 4,23
2 1,87
0,77 1
8
5,43 4 1,93
2 0,97
1 2000
9
5,00 5 2,13
3 1,10
2
va nam 2008
10
4,13 1 2,30
1 1,-33
1 11
2,13 3 1,47
3 0,60
12
1,23 1 0,67
1 0,13
Nam
26,73 22 12,60
15 5,57
5
Phan bien: KS.. Le Thanh Hai
38 Tap chi Khi ttf(/ng Thuy van * Thang 2/2009
Nghien ciJu & Trao doi
^.2. Hoat dong cua bao tren khu vyc Tay b i e Thai Binh Du'O'ng (TBTBD)
Nam 2008 cd 22 can bao hoat ddng tren khu vyc TB TBD. Hoat ddng eua bao nam 2008 bat d i u sdm,
tu giua thang 4 vdi can bao NEOGURI ed cudng dp r i t manh va k i t thuc vao giua thang 12 vdi can bao DOLPHIN. Phan bd eua bao tren khu vyc TB TBD nam 2008 duge trinh bay trong Bang 2.
Bang 2. Phan bo cua bao hoat dpng & Tay Bac Thai Binh Dwang nam 2008
^•^^•^Thang
Loai ^ ^ Bao
Bao manh Bao rat manh Tong s6'
1 2 3 4
1 1
5
2 2 4
6
1 1
7
2 2
8
3 1 4
9 2
3 5
10 1
1 11
2 1
3 12
1 1
Ca nam
5 6 11 22 Nam 2008 ed 22 XTND dat cap bao hoat ddng
tren khu vuc TB TBD (thip han trung binh nhilu nam - xem Bang 1). Trong dd:
- 5 can dat d p bao;
- 6 can bao manh;
-11 can bao r i t manh;
- Thang cd nhilu bao nhit la thang 9 vdi 5 can;
- Thang cd nhilu bao manh va r i t manh la thang 5 va 8 vdi 4 can. Nhu vay nam 2008 sd bao manh
ehu y l u tap trung vao d i u va giOa mua bao.
- Mua bao bat d i u sdm han va k i t thue mudn han so vdi TB thdi ky c h u i n .
Nam 2008 ed nhilu can bao vdi cudng dp manh han so vdi thdi ky 1971 - 2000 (Bang 3): 4 can bao cd t i e dp gid manh nhit dat tren 10Okts. Can bap cd cudng dp manh n h i t nam 2008 la can JANGMI vdi Pmin=905hPa,Vn^ax=115kts.
Bang 3. Cw&ng dp bao manh nhit thai ky 1971 - 2000 va nam 2008 a TB TBD
Ye'u to'
1971- 2000**
2008
p .
^ mm
(hPa) V
^ max
(kts) p .
'• m m
(hPa) V
* max
(kts) 1 974 70
2 990 50
3 977 60
4 967 65 960 80
5 960 80 915
105 6 963 80 945 90
7 932 95 960 75
8 938 90 955 75
9 927 100 905 115
10 920 105 990 50
11 930 100 985 50
12
960 75 970 65
Thofi ky 920 105 905 115 (**: Gid trj trung binh cua cudng dp ede can bdo manh nhit thdng, thdi ky 1971 - 2000).
3. Hoat dong cua bao va ap t h i p nhiet 6&\ a biln (2007). D i n thang 4 nam 2008, mua b i o da bat d i u dong va k i t thuc mua bao vao d i u thang 12 b i n g mdt ap
D i u thang 1 nam 2008 da ed 2 ATND hinh thanh ^^^^ "^'^* ^'^'' (^^"9 '^)-
ngay tren Bien Ddng, k i t thuc mua bao nam trudc Dudng di cua eae XTND hoat ddng tren Bien
Tap Chi Khi trftfng Thuy van * Thang 2/2009 39
v ' .
Nghien cu'u & Trao doi
Ddng duge bieu diln tren Hinh 1, eae dac trung cua TBD, so cdn lai nay sinh va hoat ddng d ngay tren XTND dugc trinh bay trong Bang 4, phan bo cua Bien Ddng. Nhu vay s l lugng XTND nay sinh tren Chung trong Bang 5 va gia tri cue tri cua bao trong Bien Ddng ehilm gin mdt nua so lugng XTND hoat Bang 6. Trong tong so 10 can bao va 5 ATND hoat ddng d khu vyc nay va chu ylu la ATND (5 can) va ddng d Bien Odng ed 5 can cd nguin gdc \u TB bao ylu (1 can).
105E 110E 115E 120E 125E 130E
Hinh 1. Dw&ng di cua bao va ATND tren khu vwe Bien Dong nam 2008 Bang 4. Bao va ATND hoat dpng a Bien Dong nam 2008
(Nguon: TT Bao Tokyo va TTDBKTTVTlf)
STT
I 2 3 4 5 6 7 S
Thang
1 1 4 5 6 7
8 8
Ten bao va ATND So
QT
08Q1 D804 0806 0809
0812
TgnQT ATNDl ATND2
NEOGURI HALONG FENGSHEN KAMMURI ATND3 NURI
So' VN
Sol Sd2 S6'3 S6'4
S5'5
Th^i gian ton tai d BD Tuf
ngay 13/1 22/1 14/4 14/5 22/6 4/8 11/8 20/8
De'n ngay 16/1 23/1 19/4 20/5 25/5 7/8 12/8 23/8
So' ngay
3 1 5 6 3 3 1 3
Ciio(ng d6 d BD
p .
* mm
(hPa) 1006 1006 960
980 970 975 1000
955
v
' max
(kt.s) 30 25 80 60 70 50 30 75
Ca'p
TD TD TY STS
TY STS TD TY
Ph^m vi hogt dong Noi
phat sinh 13,0-118,0 11,0 117,0 8,4-123,0 12,0-117,0 9,0-135,0 19,5-119,5 19,8-107,8
15,7-135,0
Ndi ke't thuc 5,8-108,7 10,4-111,6 24,0-114.7 28,4-138,6 25,1-114,3 21,3-106,2 21,9-107 23,2-112,8
40 Tap chi Khi tuVng Thuy van * Thang 2/2009
Nghidn cu'u & Trao doi
STT
9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Thang
9 9 10 10
11 11 12
Ten bao va ATND S^
QT 0814 0816 0817
0819 0821
T6nQT HAGUPIT MEKKHAL A
HIGOS*
ATND4 MAYSAK NOUL ATND5
S^
VN So 6
So 7 So 8
So 9 So'10
Thoi gian ton t?i S BD TU
ngay 22/9 27/9 1/10 13/10
6/11 15/11
2/12
Den ngay 25/9 30/9 5/10 1.5/10 10/11
17/11 3/12
ScT ngay 3 3 4 2 4 2 1
Cuf&ng do ol BD p .
•^ m m
(hPa) 935 985 998 1005 985 994 1008
V
^ max
(kts) 90 45 35 30 50 40 25
ca'p
TY TS TS TD STS
TS TD
Pham vi hoat dpng Nd
phat sinh 13,8-133,5 15,5-115,0 9,0-133,0 18,0-108,4 12,2-120,0 9,0-116,0 8,0-113,0
Nd ket thiic 22,5-105,5
19,0-103,0 22,0-112,0 18,5-105,5 13,0-117,0 11,8-108.8 7,2-110,5
*(Bao HIGOS hlnh thanh a Thdi Binh Duong thdng 9, dl chuyin vaoBiin Ddng thdng 10) Bang 5. Phan bo XTND hoat dpng & Bien Dong nam 2008
^\Thang Loai ^ \
ATND Bao Bao manh
Bao rat manh
Tong so 1
2
2
2 3 4
1 1
5
1
1 6
1
1
7 8 1
1
1 3
9
1
1 2
10
1 1
2 11
1 1
2 12
1
1
Ca ndm
5 3 3
4
15
Bang 6. Cw&ng dp manh nhit eua XTND hoat dpng tren Bien Dong th&i ky 1971 - 2000 va nam 2008
Yeu to 1971- 2000**
2008
p . (hPa)
" max
(kts) P .
^ min
(hPa) V
" max
(kts) 1 935 35 1006
30
2 3 4
960 80
5 984
50 980
60 6 977 55 970
70 7 970
60 8 970
60 955
75 9 968
60 935
90 10 967 65 998
35 11 980
55 985
50 12 982 50 1008
25
Ca nam
967 65 935
90
(**• Gid trj trung binh cua cudng dp ede con bao manh nhdt thdng, thdi ky 1971 - 2000).
Tap chi Khi tufgfng Thuy van * Thang 2/2009 41
Nghien cufu & Trao doi
Tdm lai, mua bao nam 2008 d B i l n Ddng ed nliCpng net tieu bilu sau:
- IVlua bao trai g i n nhiu' deu tCc tiiang 4 d i n tinang 12(trLPttiang7);
- T i t ca cac can bao r i t manli lioat ddng d Bien Ddng nam 2008 d i u nay sinh d TB TBD.
- Ttiang niiilu XTND nliat trong nam 2008 la thang 8 ed 3 can. Trong dd ed 1 ATND va 2 can bao manh dd la can bao KAIVIMURI va NURI
- Can bao ed cu'dng dp manh n h i t nam 2008 la bao NURI ed cudng dp, Pmin=955 hPa, Vmax= 75 kts.
3. Xoay thuan nhiet dd'i d l bo vao Viet Nam
Nam 2008 ed 5 xoay thuan nhiet ddi (3 can bao va 2 ATND) do bd vao Viet Nam, g i n b i n g trung binh thdi ky 1971 - 2000, tap trung vao b i n thang, tu thang 8 den thang 11 (Bang 7).
Bang 7. Mpt so dac trwng cua bao va ATND do bp vao Viet Nam nam 2008
STT
1 2 3 4 5
Ten bao va ATND Ten quoc te"
(QT) KAMMURI ATND3 MEKKHALA
ATND4 NOUL
QT 0809
0816
0821 S 5 VN S o 4
S o 7
So 10
Tho'i gian hoat dong Tuf ngay 4/8
11/8 27/9 13/10 15/11
Den ngay 7/8
12/8 30/9
15/10 17/11
Cifofng do 6' BD
p
^ mm
(hPa) 975
1000 985 1006 994
V
* max
(kts) 50 30 45
40
Cufofng do khi do bo
^ mm
(hPa) 995 1002
985 1006
994 V
' max
(kts) 30 25 45
40
Nrfi do bo
Quang Ninh Quang Ninh Giffa Ha Tmh va Quai
Binh Gi3a Ha Tmh va
Nghe An Giila Khanh Hoa va
Ninh Thuan Bang 8. Phan bo cua bao va ATND do bp vao Viet Nam nam 2008
^^^:jiang
Loai ^ \ ATND
Bao Bao manh Bao rat manh
Tdngsd
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
1
1
2 9
1
1 10
1
1 11
1
1
12 Ca nam
2 2 1
5 TCf Bang 7, Bang 8 t h i y r i n g : Trong nam 2008,
thang 8 la thang ed nhilu bao do bd vao Viet Nam nhit (2 can); cae thang 9, 10,11 mdi thang cd 1 can;
can bao ed cu'dng dp manh nhat khi d l bd vao Viet Nam la MEKKHALA vdi Pmin = 985 hPa va Vmax
= 45 kts.
K i t luan
Hoat ddng cua bao va ATND trong nam 2008 cd nh&ng dae diem noi bat sau:
- O khu vu-c TB TBD:
42 Tap chi Khi tifrfng Thuy van * Thang 2/2009
Nghien cu'u & Trao doi
+ Cd 22 XTND dat d p bao, it han trung binh thdi ky chuin (26,6 can);
+ Cd 15 can bao manh va r i t manh, it han trung binh thdi ky ehuin (17 can);
+ Thang 9 la thang ed nhilu bao nhit, mudn han trung binh thdi ky chuan (thang 8);
+ Cu'dng dp CLCC dai (Pmin, Vmax) cua bao hoat ddng d TB TBD nam 2008 dat gia tri 905 hPa va 115 kts vao thang 9.
Sd luang cae can bao r i t manh hoat ddng tren khu vyc TB TBD xap xi trung binh thdi ky chuan, nhung cudng dp cua cac can bao manh n h i t tren khu vue nay manh han trung binh cudng dp eae can bao manh n h i t theo day s l lieu thdi ky chuan 1971-2000.
- Tren Biln Ddng:
+ Mua bao keo dai t u thang 4 d i n thang 12;
+ Trong mua cd 15 XTND hoat ddng, nhilu han so vdi trung binh TKC (12,5 can);
+ Cudng dp cue dai cua bao hoat ddng d Biln
Ddng nam 2008 dat gia tri Pmin = 935hPa va Vmax
= 90kts vao thang 9, manh han trung binh cudng dp eae can bao manh trong thang 9 thdi ky chuan.
So bao va ATND, cung nhu s l bao r i t manh trong nam 2008 deu nhilu han mdt chut so vdi trung binh thdi ky ehuin, va cudng dp eua eae can bap manh n h i t tren khu vue nay eung manh han so vdi trung binh cudng dp cac can bao manh n h i t thdi ky chuin 1971-2000. Day la nam thu 6 lien tiep (ke tu nam 2003) eae can bao manh d Bien Ddng ed cudng dp manh han thdi ky chuan.
- Do bd vao Viet Nam:
+ Nam 2008 ed 3 can bao va 2 ATND do bd vao Viet Nam, x l p xi trung binh TKC (5,4 can). Pham vi hoat ddng tren d i t liln tu dai ven b i l n B l c Bd d i n Nam Trung Bd.
+ Cudng dp manh n h i t eua bao khi do bd vao Viet Nam la Pmin = 985 hPa va Vmax = 45 kts;
Ghi chu: Trong npi dung bdi bdo ndy, cudng dp vd si lugng cdc XTND dugc tinh theo nam duang Ijch tir thdng 1 din thdng 12
