Thuong mgi Viet Nam - Trung Quoe:
nhung rui ro phat trien
P H A M B I C H NGOC
r
haang mgi Viet Nam • Trung Qudc td 2001 din nay, dgc biet Id sau khi Vi$t Nam gia nhdp WTO, luon trong tinh trgng nhdp siiu Idn. Chinh vi vay, di gidm nhdp siiu cua Viet Nam, trUdc het vd quan trgng nhdt Id phdi gidm nhdp si§Uf | vdi Trung Qudc. Mudn gidm nhdp siiu vdi Trung Qudc, trade het phdi tim ra can nguyen cua vdn di nhdp siiu ndy. Bdi viit mo td thac trgng, chi ra nhiing nguyin nhdn chu yiu cua viec thdm hut thadng mgi cua Viet Nam vdi Trung Qudc, tren ctf sd do di xudt mot sd gidi phdp cho tinh trgng tren.1. Thiic t r a n g q u a n h d Vidt N a m - T r u n g Qud'c
Tfl n a m 2001 d i n 2013 Vidt N a m lien tuc nhdp sieu cua T r u n g Qud'c va con so' ndy ngdy cdng gia tdng chfla bao gid giam. N a m 2007, sau khi Viet N a m gia n h a p WTO, n h a p sidu tfl Trung Qud'e eua Viet N a m la 9,145 ty USD, b a n g 64% tong mfle n h a p sieu ca ndm. Ndm 2010, n h a p sieu tfl T r u n g Qud'c vd da n a n g len mflc bao dpng dd: 12,6 ty USD, bdng 105% mfle nhdp sieu ea ndm (12 ty USD) cua Viet N a m . D i n n a m 2012, HINH 1: T h i i c t r a n g n h a p s i e u c u a
khi l l n d a u tidn s a u n h i l u ndm l i l n ea nflde n h a p sieu, Vidt N a m da xud't sidu 748,8 tridu USD. Trong k h i dd t y le n h a p sidu vdi T r u n g Qud'c lai t a n g m a n h ma khdng giam, len d i n 16.3977 ty USD. Theo s i lidu ting ke't sd bp eua Tong cue Thd'ng ke Vidt Nam n a m 2013, eon so nay d a t mflc 23,7 ty USD, Ra't n h i l u n a m n h d p sieu tfl Trung Qu6c c h i l m t r e n 100% tong n h d p sieu cua Vi$t N a m . N a m 2011, n h a p sidu cua Viet Nam la 9,8 t y USD, n h a p sieu tfl T r u n g Qud'e la 13,3 ty USD.
V i e t N a m tii T r u n g Q u o e tU 2001 - 2013
• CSncanihutngmaVietNam-TruigQjdc—•—)(iHt Mau sang T r m g O A -XuStMiaitCrTargGWc 40,000.0
30,000.0 20,000.0 10,000.0
(10,000.0) (20,000.0) (30,000.0)
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2005 fl:
'" V f | |
Nguon: Tdng cue Thong ke Viet Nam.
Pham Bich Ngoe, ThS.. Vi6n Kinh ttf Viftt Nam.
6 8
Thifong mai Vl6t Nam - Trung Qutfc...
D i l u ndy cho tha'y, t i n h t r a n g n h d p sieu cua Viet N a m tfl T r u n g Qudc t r o n g vdng hdn 10 n d m n a y la k h o n g dfldc cai t h i e n md n g a y c a n g gia t a n g . D i l u n a y h o a n todn k h d n g giong vdi cac nflde ASEAN nhfl: M a l a i x i a , P h i l i p p i n , Inddnexia, T h a i Lan. N h i i n g nudc n a y d l u xua^t sieu s a n g Trung Qudc t r o n g nhflng n a m g i n day.
Nam 2009, T h a i L a n xud^t sieu s a n g T r u n g Qudc 11,5 t y U S D , M a l a i x i a : 12,5 t y U S D ,
BANG 1: C a c d o i t a c t h i i d n g m a i
Philippin: 3,3 t y U S D ^ 2. N h f t n g r u i r o p h a t t r i e n
Hidn nay, nhflng dd'i tae thfldng mai q u a n t r p n g eua Viet N a m la T r u n g Quoe.
My, EU, N h d t Ban, H d n Qud'c... Neu Trung Qudc la t h i trfldng n h d p k h I u Idn nhd't t h i My la t h i trfldng x u l t k h a u h a n g d l u cua Viet N a m . Cac quoe gia va k h u vflc cdn lai cung n a m gifl nhflng vi t r i q u a n trpng trong thfldng mai qud'e te' Viet N a m .
q u a n t r o n g c u a V i e t N a m n a m 2013 Thi t r u d n g xud't k h a u
ST T 1 2 3 4 5
Qudc gia
EU My (nudc nhap khiu s6 1
th^gidi) ASEAN Nhat Ban (nudc nhap kh^u
thfi4th^gi6i) Tning Qu6c (nudc nhap
kh^u thii 2 th^ gidi) T6ng kim ngach xuSft khdu nSm
'2013
Kim ngach (ty USD)
24,3 23,9 18,47 13,7 13,26 132,13
Ty trong
(%)
18,4 18,0 13,9 10,4 10,0 100,0
Thi trudng n h a p k h i u
STT 1 2 3 4 5
Qudc gia Trung Qudc
ASEAN Han Qudc Nhat Ban
EU T6ng kim ngach nhap
khdu nam 2013
Kim ngach (ty USD)
36,95 21,64 20,7 11,6 9,5 132,11
Ty trong
(%)
28,0 16,4 15,7 8,8 7,2 100,0 Ngudn: B6 C6ng thuang Vifit Nam.
Bang 1 cho thd'y Viet N a m xud't sieu sang khdi cae nflde p h a t t r i e n EU, My, Nhdt Ban..., t r o n g khi dd lai n h a p sieu ehu y l u tfl cdc nflde va v u n g l a n h tho C h a u A thudc khd'i cae nflde d a n g p h d t tridn nhfl Trung Qud'c, ASEAN, H a n Qud'c... D i l u nay cd t h i dfla r a mot so k i t luan: 1) Sfl n h a p aieu ndy khdng p h a i tfl k h u vflc cd t r i n h dp cdng nghe cao, cdng n g h e nguon va cd t h e ldm t h a y doi cd ed'u k i n h te Viet Nam theo hfldng hi$n dai. Dieu ndy se a n h hfldng tieu cflc d i n k i n h t e xa hdi eua Viet N a m . 2) Vi§t N a m d a n g b a n h d n g T r u n g Qud'e s a n g My..., vi Viet N a m ehu yeu n h d p nguyen v$t lidu eua T r u n g Qud'e v l gia edng vd x u l t k h I u s a n g EU, My, p h d n gia tri gia tftng c6 dflpc la vd cung it.
Nhap sieu khdng phai la xdu, hien tai Hoa Ky, n i n kinh te' manh nhd't h a n h tinh eung chiu eanh nhap sieu trong sudt 3 thap ky qua, nhflng n h a p sieu cflng tiem an rdt nhieu rui ro phat trien.
2.1. Nhdp sieu cua Viet Nam td Trung Qudc the hien su yeu kem cua nen kinh tiViet Nam
2.1.1. Cham chuyen dich cd cdu xudt nhdp khdu
Viet Nam dang tflng bflde tien tdi cdng nghiep hda - hien dai hoa dat nflde. Day chinh la nhiem vu cap thiet ma Dang vd Nhd 1. TS. H6 Tmng Tlianh. ThS. Pham Bich Ngpc (2013).
Nhap sieu ciia Viet Nam lir Tnmg Qii6c' thuc trang vk giai phap. Tap chi Nghiftn cull Ihirong mai sO'6 {12-2013).
n aiu Kinh t4sd437 - Thing 10/2014
Thuang mai Viet Nam - Trang Quoe.
nflde Vidt N a m xdc d i n h d l dfla da't nflde tflng bflde p h a t t r i e n k i n h td' n g a y mot b e n vflng on d i n h , xda d i n k h o a n g each ve k i n h t e gifla Viet N a m va eae nflde t r e n thd' gidi. T h i nhflng, cac n g a n h s a n x u a t t r o n g nflde v l n chfla t h e dap flng dfldc n h u cau ciia q u a t r i n h hidn d a i hda, do dd Viet N a m cd n h u c a u r a t Idn t r o n g viec n h a p k h a u h a n g hda, t r a n g t h i e t bi ky t h u d t , edng nghd hidn dai tfl nflde ngoai vao.
Ca'u t r u e xua't n h a p k h d u cua Viet N a m cho tha'y, ndn k i n h te' Viet N a m da duy t r i q u a ldu t r o n g md h i n h "gia t r i gia t a n g t h a p " , dfla vao k h a i t h a c t a i n g u y e n va s a n x u a t gia cdng lap r a p . V l xua't k h a u , h a n g hda Viet N a m xud't s a n g T r u n g Qud'c c h u ye'u Id h a n g thd ehie'm ty t r p n g cao nhfl nhflng m a t h a n g n g u y e n lieu thd (ddu thd, t h a n da...), h a y h a n g chfla q u a che' bie'n hoac mdi sd che' (nhfl gao, ed phe, cao su, h a t dieu...). Nhflng m a t h a n g n a y lai e h i l m gia t r i tha'p hdn so vdi s a n p h a m cung loai eua T r u n g Qud'c. Cdn h a n g edng n g h i e p ehe' t a o xud't k h a u ehii ye'u tfl cac n g d n h nhfl: det m a y , gidy da, dien tfl..., eho de'n nay ehii ye'u chi la gia cdng d giai doan eud'i, gia t r i gia t a n g vdn cdn thd'p, t r o n g k h i p h a n gia t r i n g u y e n vat lieu n h a p k h a u tfl T r u n g Qud'c la ra't Idn. D i l u ndy cho thd'y Viet N a m cdn n h i e u h a n ehe' t r o n g nhflng n g a n h xua't k h a u ed gia t r i gia t a n g cao. Nguyen n h a n la do chien Ifldc va c h i n h saeh xua't n h a p k h a u ciia Viet Nam cdn n h i l u h a n che, chi c h u t r p n g t a n g kim ngach va khd'i Ifldng h a n g xud't k h a u , khdng chii t r p n g p h a t t r i e n n a n g Iflc san xua't vd xua't k h a u eae s a n p h a m cd gia tri gia t a n g cao m a n g lai gia tri thfle cho n e n kinh te. Vide n h d p k h a u cac s a n p h a m t r u n g gian va h a n g hoa ed b a n la ta't ye'u.
Hdn nfla, T r u n g Qud'e lai rd't cd ldi t h e t r o n g viec cung cap cae m a t h a n g nay. Cdn n h d p k h a u h a n g hda de t a n g n a n g Iflc san xud't va n a n g cao t r i n h dp cua cac n g d n h t r o n g nflde la y l u va thieu. Ngoai r a , sfl lien k i t gifla eac nhdm n g d n h xud't k h a u Id h a u nhfl khdng cdr
Tdm lai, gia t r i gia t a n g thd'p cua khu vfle x u a t k h I u , c l u npi d i a gia t d n g lam cho t h a m h u t thfldng m a i ngdy mdt t r a m trpng.
2.1.2. Cong nghi thd cdp, lac hdu Vdi md h i n h t a n g trfldng theo chieu rdng, Vidt N a m h l u nhfl chfla ehii trpng dd'n viec p h a t t r i l n t h i trfldng khoa hpc edng n g h e . Cdng n g h e m a Vidt N a m hien n a y n h a p k h I u Id edng nghd thd'p tfl cao nflde ASEAN va T r u n g Qud'e. Cd y kid'n cho rdng, Viet N a m trd t h a n h "bai phd' thai"
edng n g h i e p lae h a u c u a T r u n g Qud'c. Cdng n g h e m a Viet N a m n h a p k h d u tfl Trung Qud'c c h u ye'u la cdng n g h e t r u n g binh, lac h d u k h d n g giup n h i e u eho vide eai thi§n t r i n h dp edng n g h e eua n e n k i n h te', nang eao sflc e a n h t r a n h dai h a n . Cdng nhdp sieu va c a n g n h a p nhflng edng n g h e trung b i n h , lae h a u t h i cdng khd ed dfldc ndng Iflc eanh t r a n h va tie'p tuc p h a i n h a p sieu la t i t ye'u. Hien nay, Viet N a m d a n g xfle tiin d a m p h a n ky ke't cac FTA vdi cac nflde co t r i n h dp p h a t t r i l n cao h d n T r u n g Quoe nhfl Hoa Ky, E U (dam p h a n trong Hiep d i n h doi tae xuyen T h a i B i n h Dfldng - TPP, FTA vdi EU). Ne'u d a m p h a n t h a n h cdng va t h a m gia ky ke't eac hiep dinh ndy, Viet N a m se cd cd hdi n h a p k h a u cdng nghe, thid't bi tien t i i n hdn tfl cae dd'i tae ndi trdn.
2.1.3. Thiiu cong nghiep phu tra H i e n n a y , mdt so n g a n h edng nghiep cd the' m a n h eua Viet N a m nhfl dien t^, ddt may, da gidy, ldp r a p d td, xe may... hiu nhfl chfla ed edng n g h i e p hd trd di kem, n e n p h a i p h u t h u p e n h i e u vao n g u y e n lieu n h d p k h a u , dae b i e t tfl t h i trfldng Trung Qudc, khie'n s a n xud't n h i l u k h i cdn manh m u n , bi dpng, chi p h i s a n xua't cao. Phat t r i e n n g u y e n , p h u lieu t r o n g nflde dang p h a i ehiu dp Ifle c a n h t r a n h gay gdt vdi s a n p h a m ciia T r u n g Qud'e do hp ed thdi gian s a n xua't lau ddi, quy md Idn, mdu ma da d a n g , gia r e .
Dac diem eua cdng n g h i e p p h u trd d Vidt N a m la: 1. Do cac d o a n h n g h i e p vfla va nhd d a m n h i e m . T r o n g q u a t r i n h hdi n h a p , cac
70 Nghiin aiu Kmh tSsd437 - Thing 10/2014
Thirang mai ViM Nam - Trung Qudc.
doanh nghiep vfla vd nhd eiia nganh cdng nghiep se chiu thiet thdi nha:t. 2. Cdng nghidp phu trd cdn h i t siic ddn gian, quy md nhd le, chu y l u san xud't cac linh kien chi t i l t gian ddn, gia tri gia tang tha'p va cd sfl chenh Idch v l nang Iflc phu trd gifla cae doanh nghiep viia v a nhd ndi dia cua Viet N a m vdi cac yeu c l u eua cae h a n g san xua't toan cau.
3. Chinh nhflng bd't cdp eua chinh sdch gdy can trd vide p h a t trien cdng nghiep p h u trd trong nflde. Dd la, doanh nghiep xua't k h I u mua nguydn p h u lieu tfl cae n h a s a n xua't trong nflde phai ddng trfldc khoan t h u e VAT 10%, s a u do k h i hp xuat k h a u t h a n h p h l m thi mdi dfldc thfle hien khd'u trfl. Trong khi dd, n i u doanh nghiep lam hdng xua't khau, ma n h a p k h a u vat tfl p h u lieu thi khdng phai ddng trfldc t h u l VAT vd se dfldc Nhd nflde cho t h i l u trong vdng 90 ngay, sau dd tinh theo hinh thfle t a m n h a p t a i xud't, tflc doanh nghidp khdng p h a i ddng khoan thud' nay.
Viee edng nghidp p h u trd cua Viet Nam cdn ye'u vd thieu cung la nguyen n h a n quan trpng khie'n cho Viet N a m cdng phai n h a p nhilu hdn nfla nguyen lieu dau vao cho san
xua't va se cang lam eho eon so' nhap sieu cua Viet N a m vdi Trung Quoe tang cao.
2.1.4. Mot lugng Idn hdng hda xudt nhdp
"ldu " qua dadng tiiu ngach
N h a p sieu qua Idn Id vd'n d l noi com trong quan he thfldng mai Viet Nam - T r u n g Qud'e. Dae bidt, so h e u eua Viet N a m va so' lieu eua Trung Quoe cho thd'y chenh lech k h a Idn. So' lieu thdm h u t thUdng mai cua Viet N a m vdi Trung Qud'c do Tong cue Thd'ng ke Vidt N a m edng bd' ludn nhd hdn so' lieu eua Tong cue Thd'ng ke Trung Qud'e edng bd'rd't nhieu. Dinh diem n a m 2011, eon so' nay chenh lech len de'n 4.719,3 trieu USD. Dieu nay dfldc ly giai bdi mdt Ifldng h a n g hda vdi quy md Idn dfldc "nhap ldu" va
"xud't lau" tieu ngach qua bien gidi md cae cd quan q u a n ly cua Viet N a m chfla quan ly dfldc. Khi hdng hda budn lau d at qua bien gidi, khdng chiu thue' n h a p khau se "bdp chet" cac doanh nghiep san xud't trong nflde vi phai chiu cac mflc thue' va chi phi cao.
Ngoai budn lau, cac doanh nghiep Trung Qud'c cung tich cflc sfl dung cdc chieu bai Idch luat, trd'n thud'....
BANG 1: B a o c a o t i n h h i n h thifdng m a i Viet N a m - Trung Quoe c u a Viet N a m v a T r u n g Quoe tU 2001 - 2012 Ban vi: Trieu USD
Nam
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20O9 2010 2011 2012
Kim ngach xu&'t khau cija Viet Nam sang
Tnmg Quoe Tong cue Thong ke Trung Quoe
1.010,8 1.115,9 1.456,7 2.482,0 2.552,8 2.486,1 3.226,3 4.336,3 4.747,5 6.984,5 11.117.7 16.231,3
Tongcue Thong k^
Viet Nam 1.417,4 1.518,3 1.883,1 2.899,1 3.228,1 3.242,8 3.646,1 4.850,1 5.403,0 7.742,9 11.613,3 12.388,2
Kim ngach nh^p khau eua Via NamtirTrungQuoe Tdng cue Thdng ke Trung Qudc
1.797,8 2.148,4 3.182,7 4.260,0 5.643,9 7.463,3 11.891,3 15.122,1 16.297,7 23.101,5 29.090,1 34.208,1
Tongcue Thdng k^
Viet Nam 1 606,2 2.158.8 3.138,6 4.595.1 5.899,7 7.391,3 12.710,0 15.973,6 15.411,3 20.203,6 24.866.4 28.785.9
Tdng kim ngach xuibt nliap kh^u Vi^ Nam -
Tnmg Qudc Tdng cue Thdng ke Tnmg Quoe
2.808,6 3.264,3 4.639,4 6.742,0 8.196,7 9.949,4 15.117,6 19.458,4 21.045.2 30.086,0 40.207,8 50.439.4
Tdng cue Thdng ke Viet Nam 3.023,6 3.677,1 5.021,7 7.494,2 9.127,8 10.634,1 16.356,1 20.823,7 20 814,3 27 946,5 36.479.7 41.174.1
Can e ^ thuang mai Viet Nam-TrungQudc Tdng cue Tfldng ke Tnmg Qudc
-787,0 -1.032,5 -1.762,0 -1.778,0 -3.091,1 -4.977,2 -8.665,0 -10.785,8 -11.550,2 -16 117,0 -17.972.4 -17.976.8
Tdng cue Thdng ke Viet Nam -188,8 -640,5
•1.255,5 -1.696,0 -2.671,6 -4.148,5 -9.063.9 -11.123.5 -10008.3 -12.460.7 -13.253.1 -I6..!97,7 Ngudn: Tdng cue Th6ng kd Tmng Qii6c: www.dala sials.gov en. Tdng cue Thcing ke N
Nghiin aiu Kinh l4sd437 - Thing 10/2014
Thuong mai Viet Nam - Trang Qutfc .
2.1.5. Yeu kem trong cong tdc qudn ly xudt nhdp khdu
Viet N a m n h a p sieu cung cdn mdt nguyen n h a n q u a n trpng dd la do hd thd'ng q u a n ly d i l u h a n h ciia Viet Nam eon yd'u. Chinh t i n h t r a n g t h a m nhiing, dau tfl dan trai, lang phi, t h i l u trach nhiem eua mdt sd' can bd trong q u a n ly n h a p k h a u la ly do giai thieh tai sao viee nhdp lau h a n g Trung Qudc qua bien gidi lai ngay cang gia tdng. Hdn nfla, Viet N a m hidn nay vd cung yd'u trong viec t h a m dinh cha't Iflpng cac m a t h a n g nhdp k h a u tfl Trung Qudc. Viet Nam hodn toan chfla ap dung mdt each hieu qua cac h a n g rao dd'i vdi n h a p n h a u theo nguyen tdc thfldng mai tfl do nhfl TBT, SPS.
2.2. Nhdp sieu cua Viet Nam td Trung Qudc the hien quan he "phu thupc" cua nen kinh teViet Nam vdo Trung Qudc 2.2.1. Phdn Idn nguyen vdt lieu phuc vu sdn xudt diu nhdp khdu tU Trung Qudc Mot nfla h a n g xua't k h a u cua Viet N a m sang Trung Qud'e la h a n g thd, sd ehe, trong khi nhdp k h a u lai la h a n g tinh ehe' (chiem 85%). Dong thdi cac doanh nghiep hoat ddng tai Viet Nam cung dang sfl dung 80% edng nghd va nguyen lieu cua Trung Qud'c de phue vu san xua't. D i l u nay ddn de'n sfl le thupe qua mflc cua nen kinh te' Viet Nam vao Trung Qud'c va gay bd't ldi ca khia canh kinh t l , tai ehinh va xa hoi.
Cdng nghiep, Viet Nam ehu y l u nhdp k h a u hang cdng nghiep phu trd, san p h l m t r u n g gian va may mdc tfl Trung Qud'c n h u may moc, xang dau, dien, nguyen phu. lieu va san p h a m det may, da giay, hoa ehd't, dieu hda, may tinh, dien thoai di ddng, mot so'loai vdt lieu xay dflng vd mot so' mat hang khac.
Dae diem cd ban cua h a n g hda cdng nghiep chu Iflc nhdp khdu tfl Trung Qud'c v l Viet Nam Id chd't Ifldng tha'p, gia re, nhieu loai chfla ed ngudn gd'c ro rang do n h a p lau, dae biet do dung gia dung. Ngoai ra, h a n g t r u n g gian la nhdm hang Idn nha't trong n h a p k h a u tfl Trung Qud'c. Gia tri tang m a n h tfl gan 5,0 ty USD ndm 2006 len 19,5 ty ndm 2012. Ty
trpng h a n g t r u n g gian t r o n g n h a p k h I u tfl T r u n g Qud'c t a n g Hen t u c tfl 41,3% n a m 2000 len 67,8% n a m 2012. H a n g h d a vd'n dat 5,9 ty USD n a m 2012, chiem 20,6% t y trpng nhdp k h a u tfl T r u n g Qud'e n a m 2012. Ty trpi^
h a n g hda vd'n va h a n g hda t r u n g gian troi^
n h a p k h ^ u tfl T r u n g Qud'e cd bien dpng theo tflng n a m nhflng ludn vfldt mflc 80% ke tii n a m 2006. D i l u nay cdng chiing td Vidt Nam p h u thudc q u a n h i e u vao T r u n g Qudc vi todn bd may mdc, cdng n g h e va d l u vao san xuat cua Viet N a m deu la tfl T r u n g Quoe.
Ndng nghiep, ehu yeu la " d l u vao" de phat trien ndng nghiep Viet N a m nhfl cdy - con gidng, p h a n bdn, thfle a n gia sue... Theo Bo Cdng thfldng Viet Nam, hidn nay khoang 49% p h a n bdn, thud'e trfl s a u nhdp k h I u cua Vidt N a m la tfl T r u n g Qud'c.
BANG 2: C a c m a t h a n g n h a p k h a u chinh c u a Viet N a m tii T r u n g Q u o e n a m 2013 STT
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Mat hang May moc, thiet bi, dung cu, phu tiing khdc
Di6n thoai cac loai vii linh kien May vi tinh, san p h ^ dien tir vil linh Iden
Vai cac loai sat th6p cac loai Xang dfiu cac loai
Nguyen phu lieu dgt may, da, gijy
Phan bon cac loai Hoa chit Siin p h ^ ttr sat thep May iinh, may quay phim va linh kien
Siin phdm tit chSt deo Kim loai thucmg khac San p h ^ hda chit Xo, soi ddt cac loai Chfft deo nguydn lieu Thudc trit sau va nguyen lidu Day dien va day cap dien Khi ddt hoa long
Giafri (1000 USD)
6.567.814 5.698.009 4.491.921 3.887.791 2.397.059 1.268.130 1.195.118 853.467 840.664 836.249 693.669 685.856 575.248 538.831 465,714 433.275^
385.732 363.057 319.524 Ngudn: T6ng cue Th6ng ke Viet Nam.
72 Nghiin aiu Kmh t4s6437 - Thing 10/2014
Thuong mai m\ Nam - Trang Quoe.
Neu q u a n h e Vidt N a m - T r u n g Qudc cdng thdng, T r u n g Qudc cd t h e se h a n c h i x u l t k h I u mot so m a t h a n g sang Vidt Nam. Ve cdng nghiep Id nhdm nguyen lieu s a n p h l m trung gisin trong cac ngdnh det may, gidy ddp, cac Unh kien dien tfl.... V l ndng nghiep Id giong, thuoc bao ve thfle vdt, vdc xin eho ngfldi va gia sflc... Do dd, Viet N a m can phai cd phfldng dn chu ddng tim cdc doi tae t h a y t h i .
2.2.2. Phdn Idn cdc dit dn tdng thdu EPC do nhd thdu Trung Qud'c ndm giu Cd phai vi Trung Qudc dang t a n g cfldng thfle hien ehien Ifldc "di r a ngoai", k h u y i n khich d l u tfl r a cac nflde ASEAN trong dd cd Vidt Nam n e n Trung Quoe hien nay la n h a t h I u Idn nhd^t ndm gifl rd't nhieu dfl an trpng diem trong linh vflc an ninh nang Ifldng eua Vidt Nam? Thed thd'ng ke cua Cue Dau tfl nflde ngddi, trdng 20 ndm qua, 90% FDI cua Trung Qudc vdo Vidt Nam va Trung Qud'c ciing ndm gifl 90% cac gdi t h a u EPC eua Vidt Nam t^p t r u n g vao cac dfl an trpng didm nhfl didn, khai khoang, d a u khi, luyen kim, hda chd't.... ==
Nguydn n h a n chu yd'u la do: i) Ludt Dd'u t h I u cua Vidt N a m flu tien eae n h a t h a u cd gia bd t h I u thd'p md khdng quan t a m de'n ngudn gdc xud't sfl v l cha't Iflpng thiet hi.
Trung Qud'c ludn ehie'm dfldc ldi the' ve gia so vdi ta't ca cac nflde khac. ii) N a n g Iflc quan ly chu d l u tfl cua Viet Nam cdn h a n che'. D i l u nay dan de'n viee n h a t h a u sfl dung 100%
thiet bi vat lieu va lao dpng pho thdng cua Trung Qud'e t r e n eac cdng trfldng xay dflng.
K i t qua Id: i) Cham t i i n dp. ii) Gid hpp ding dpi len do t h a y doi thiet bi so vdi cam k i t ban d l u , t h a y doi tieu c h u a n vdt lieu, thay doi hodc bo s u n g n h a cung cd'pl Vide chdm t i i n dp ddl vdi nhflng dfl dn trong linh vflc nang Ifldng t h a m chi cdn a n h hfldng den k l hoach p h a t t r i l n kinh t l xa hdi cua dat nflde. iii. Dem toan bd vat tfl sdt thep, phu tflng, phu kien (cd t h e e h l tao tai Viet Nam) th^m chi ca lao ddng pho thdng sang ldm tai cdc cdng t r i n h ma hp lam tong t h I u . Dieu
nay cd t h e ndi vdi ty Id n h a p sieu 100% nhdm t h i i t hi dong bd nay khien eho toe dp n h a p sidu tfl Trung Qud'e eua Vidt Nam ludn tdng nhanh. Ne'u n a m 2002 nhdp sieu tfl Trung Qudc la hdn 640 trieu USD thi sau 10 nam, n a m 2012, eon so nay len d i n hdn 16 ty USD, n a m 2013 hdn 23 ty USD. Trong dd nhdp sieu nhdm thiet bi dong bd hang ndm len tdi 10 ty USD.
3. X u h t f d n g n h a p s i e u c u a V i e t N a m td T r u n g Quo'e t r o n g tiicftig l a i v a nhufng b i e n p h a p h a n c h i P h a n t r e n da ehi r a nhflng rui ro trong p h a t trien eua n i n kinh te'Viet Nam do tinh t r a n g n h a p sieu cua Viet Nam tfl Trung Qud'c dien ra trong mot thdi gian dai va vd eung nghiem trpng. Ngoai ra, cdn ed phai do Trung Qud'e - "cfldng qud'c lang gilng" ed y do t h a u tdm, khdng muon kinh te' Viet Nam p h a t tridn ma phai phu thudc vao Trung Qud'c? Dfl la do Trung Qud'c hay Viet Nam, trong ngdn han, nhdp sieu eua Viet Nam tfl Trung Qud'c chfla the giai quyet dfldc. Viet Nam vdn can n h d p k h a u tfl T r u n g Qud'e de 2 Vien Nghien cuii co khi-NARIME (BO COng thircfng) dira ra con s6' cu the hon: nganh cOng nghiep ximang co 23/24 nha may do Trung Quo'e lam tdng thSu EPC, ty le n6i dia hoa trong nu'dc ra't thfCp khdng Ion hon 3% (phSn Icm la 0%); nhiet dien d6l than: 15/20 dif an do nha than Trung Qu6c trung Ihfiu EPC vdi ty le n6i dia hoa 0%. Nganh cong nghiep nh6m va bauxite, ca 2 du an bauxite do Tap doan cOng nghiep Than-Khoang san Viet Nam lam chu d^u tu dlu do Trung Qutfc lam t^ng ihSu EPC vdi ty le noi dia hoa chi von ven 2%. Trong 10 du an trong di^m ve ha tang, giao th6ng, nang lugng, hoa chai, luyen kim cua ViSt Nam deu co nha thdu Trung Qu6c tham gia nhu: cong trinh ducmg sat do thi Cat Linh-H^
06ng, daong cao to'c Ha N6i-Hai Phong, Ha Noi-Lao Cai, nha may gang thep Lao Cai, nhiet dien Duyen Hai 1, nhiet dien Mong Ducmg 2...
3. Du an diitmg sSt dS thi Cat Linh - Ha Ddng co t6ng miic dau lu 552 trieu USD (thai gia nam 2008), irong dd.
vd'n ODA Trung Quoe la 419 trieu USD do COng ty huu han Tap doan cue 6 ducmg sat Trung Qudc thuc hien theo hmh thiic tdng Ihdu EPC. Du an niy khoi cdng tu thang 8 2008 va dif kien hoan thanh Ihang 11-2013. Tu> nhien.
voi ly do cham tien dd do giai phong mat bang, nhieu hang muc thay d6i, bifin ddng ve gia nguyen lieu... khie'n cho t6ng mirc Aiu lir du an deh ihcJi di^m niy da bi dOi gia tit 552 trieu USD len miic 891 trieu USD
Nghiin cOu Kinh tSs6437 - Thing 10/2014 73
Tliirong mai Viet Nam - Trang Quae...
b u ddp t h i e u h u t cua n i n k i n h te' de p h u c vu cdng cudc cdng nghiep h d a - h i e n d a i hda eua Viet N a m .
Hien t a i T r u n g Quoe dfla r a rd't n h i l u chinh sdch k h u y i n khich d a u tfl vao cac n g d n h cdng n g h e cao, n e n ra't ed t h e Viet N a m la diem den t h u a n ldi cho nhflng cdng n g h e tha'p, lac h a u cua T r u n g Quoe. Ngoai ra, tien Ifldng n h a n cdng lao ddng d T r u n g Qud'e t a n g Idn ndn T r u n g Qud'c khd cd thd duy t r i dfldc lao ddng gia re, nhflng lidu Viet N a m cd p h a i la Ifla ehpn cua cae n h a d a u tfl nflde ngoai khdng khi n a n g sud't lao dpng cua edng n h d n Vidt N a m ra't tha'p. So' lieu eua To ehfle Lao ddng qud'e te' (ILO) cdng bd' mdi day cho tha'y, n a n g s u a t lao dpng eua Vidt N a m n a m 2013 thudc n h d m tha'p nha't C h a u A - T h a i Binh Dfldng, thd'p hdn Xingapo 15 l l n , N h a t B a n 11 l a n va H a n Qud'e 10 lan. Ngay ca khi chi so s a n h vdi cac qud'e gia l a n g g i l n g t r o n g khd'i ASEAN cd mfle t h u n h a p t r u n g b i n h t h i n a n g sud't lao dpng Viet N a m cung chi bdng 1/5 Malaixia va 2/5 T h a i L a n ^ T h e m vao nfla la ddng N h a n d a n te t a n g gia, n a m 2015, Viet N a m p h a i thfle hien d^y du cdc cam k i t ACFTA... Vdi cae xu hfldng ndy, Viet N a m vdn dflng trfldc t h a c h thfle n h a p sieu vdi quy md Idn tfl T r u n g Qud'e. Nhflng nhdp sieu nhfl the' nao de cd t h e Id "thoat T r u n g ben vdng", khdng bi rdi vdo t i n h t r a n g q u a n he thfldng m a i va d a u tfl kieu Bae - N a m de giup Viet N a m t h o a t khdi bdy t h u n h d p t r u n g b i n h la mot cau hdi Idn.
Bai viet xin dfla r a mot so giai p h a p "thodt T r u n g b i n vflng" dd'i vdi Viet Nam:
3.1. Ddi vdi Chinh phu
Viet N a m can t a n g cfldng tdi cd ed'u thed hfldng hien dai: n a n g eao cha't Ifldng t a n g trudng, ndng cao n a n g lUc san xua't ndi dia, n a n g cao cha't Ifldng h a n g hda la yeu eau cap t h i e t dd'i vdi san xua't cua Viet N a m . Trong bd'i canh q u a n he k i n h te Viet Nam - T r u n g Qud'e eang thdng, neu trong ngdn han, ed t h e a n h hfldng Idn de'n k i n h te Viet N a m . Nhflng trong dai han, dd lai la cd hdi
de Viet N a m t h u c d a y vide c h u y i n d i i mo h i n h t a n g trfldng, t a i cd c a u theo hfldng h i e n dai.
Tha nhdt, C h i n h p h u e l n cd c h i n h sach d i l u c h i n h cd ed'u h a n g xud!t n h d p khIu p h u hdp t h e o hfldng h a n ehe n h d p khIu;
e h u t r p n g d l y m a n h xua't k h I u . M u l n han chd' n h a p k h I u tot, C h i n h p h u c l n dfla ra quy h o a c h eu t h i nhflng m a t h a n g flu tien n h d p k h I u , xay dflng h e t h i n g tieu chu^n v l h d n g n h d p k h I u (tieu c h u a n chd^t Ifldng, mdi trfldng, ve s i n h a n t o d n . . . ) . Quan ly c h a t t i e u n g a c h b a n g each xd ly nghiem h a n g h d a k h d n g ro xud't xfl, h a n g hda gian l a n thfldng m a i , h a n g k e m chd't Ifldng, h d n g gia n g a y tfl cfla k h I u . Nhflng mat h d n g k h d n g d a m bao c h a t Ifldng hoac gay n g u y h a i dd'n mdi trfldng, sflc khde ngflcii t i e u d u n g p h a i k i e n quydt t i e u huy hoac budc t a i xua't. L a p h a n g r a o k y t h u ^ t hoSc dfla len " d a n h saeh den" nhflng m d t hdng ea'm n h d p . . . K h a i t h a c ldi the' h a n g xua't k h a u eua Viet N a m , xac d i n h ro trpng dilm xua't k h a u Viet N a m , k h a i t h a c cac thi trfldng t i e m n a n g de day m a n h xud't kh^u r a t h i trfldng t h i gidi. Kd't hdp c h a t che cac chfldng t r i n h xuc t i e n thfldng m a i cua quoe gia, cae n g d n h , dia phfldng vd doanh n g h i e p . Hd trp eac d o a n h nghidp xud't khilu vd'n, ed sd h a t a n g , k h o b a i . . . D i l u chinh ed ed'u h a n g xud't n h d p k h a u p h a i tren n g u y e n tdc chdc chfin, dai hdi. Muon vay e l n p h a i cd sfl phdi hpp dong bdi vdi cac e h i n h saeh d l u tfl, edng nghidp va ddc biet la c h i n h saeh t a i ed ed'u tong t h i n i n kinh te.
Tha hai, Viet N a m can p h a i ddt nang yeu cau ve ehd't Ifldng, n h i n rd t i m quan t r p n g eua vd'n de a n n i n h n a n g Ifldng, an n i n h qud'c gia. Cdn p h a i ed nhflng dieu l u P ro r a n g quy d i n h nhflng d a n h muc ea'm eac n h a t h a u t h a m gia cac edng t r i n h trpng diem, h o a n t h i e n k h u n g k h o p h a p 1^ doi vdi
4. http://www.baomoi.com/Tan-tao-ma-nang-suat-van -thap/45/14822298.epi
74 Nghiin cdu Kmh t§s6437 - Thing 10/2014
Tlitfang mat Vifit Nam - Trang Qn^c.
hoat ddng dd'u t h I u , tao d i l u kien hdn cho nhd t h l u trong nflde vd vat tfl, san p h l m e h l tao trong nflde. Dfla nguon gdc x u l t xfl h a n g hoa vao tieu chi d a n h gia cd mflc dp flu tien cho p h l n dich vu t h i i t bi che tao trong nflde, khdng chi xet tieu chi gia re, m a e l n quan tam den vdng ddi ky t h u d t dfl an.
Tha ba, muon n a n g cao chat Ifldng d i l u quan trpng va tien quyet la e l n d l y m a n h viee n h a p k h I u va nghien eflu, flng dung khoa hpc - edng nghe vao eae ngdnh, linh vflc cua n i n k i n h te. Dfla r a cae ehinh sach khich Id doanh nghiep nhdp k h I u edng nghe nguon, cdng nghd tien tien vdo Viet N a m . Vide ky k i t thdnh cdng Hiep dinh T F P cung se giup thiic d l y d a u tfl cai thien edng nghd, t h u h u t cdng nghe nguon tfl cdc nflde cd n e n kinh td' hang d l u t h i gidi nhfl My, Australia....
Ngoai ra, Vidt Nam eung can tao dieu kien dl cae doanh nghiep ed du n a n g Ifle flng dung cdng nghe mdi thfle d l y t a n g td'e chuyen giao cdng nghe vdo cae nganh, linh vfle b&ng each thiic d l y p h a t t r i l n thi trfldng khoa hpe va cdng nghe, p h a t t r i l n doanh nghiep khoa hpc - cdng nghe d l tdng ngudn eung san pham cdng nghe mdi cho thi trfldng.
Tha ta, giam phu thudc vao viec n h a p nguyen vat lidu san xua't, e l n day m a n h t h u hut d l u tfl nflde ngoai d eae linh vflc nhfl edng nghiep phu trp. P h a t trien nganh cdng nghiep phu trd la mdt trong nhflng chinh saeh flu tien h a n g dau cua Chinh phii Viet Nam va dflpc ky vpng se lam t h a y doi bd mat cua nganh cdng nghiep Viet Nam.
Thd ndm, xay dflng k h u cdng nghiep mang tinh chd't lien hoan, cae k h u kinh te ddc biet trd t h a n h mui nhpn trong nen kinh t l Viet Nam. Giao sfl Michael Porter va cac ding sfl tai CIEM va Hpe vien Nang Iflc eanh tranh Chau A k i l n nghi nen tap trung vao cac linh vflc lien quan de'n t h u h u t dau tfl, phdt t r i l n ky n a n g lao ddng, khu cdng nghidp...
Ong vd cae dong sfl eung d l xua't mdt so' md hinh thi diem nhfl cum ngdnh dien tfl - ed khf t^i Hd Npi, cum du lich d mien t r u n g hay ci^m ngdnh det may, logistics tai TP HCM...'.
Tha sdu, ddy m a n h ky k i t n h i l u Hiep dinh thfldng mai tfl do (FTAs) dae biet la Hiep dinh Ddi tae xuyen Thdi Binh Dfldng TPP, Hiep dinh Thfldng mai Vidt Nam - EU (EVFTA) ky ke't t h a n h cdng se d l y manh xud't k h a u sang khu vflc da ky k i t FTA, mang ldi ich tct nhdt eho doanh nghiep va n i n kinh te, dae biet la trong h a n che sfl p h u thudc qua Idn vao thfldng mai vdi Trung Quoe. Trong qua trinh dam phan, Viet Nam can cd phfldng an dam phan mem deo nhflng kien quydt v l ldi ich xud't k h I u cua doanh nghiep, bao gom eae vd'n S$ v l flu ddi thud' quan, quy tdc xud't xfl phu hdp vdi cd cau, phfldng thfle san xua't, ede hdng rdo ky t h u d t trong thfldng mai (TBT), vd sinh dich t l (SPS) hdp ly, khoa hpc vd khdng bi lam dung..., trong do dac biet ehu trpng ddm p h a n cae cd che' tie'p can thi trfldng eho ndng san, nhdm da dang hda thi trfldng doi vdi san pham nhay cam va hien dang phu thupe rd't Idn vdo thi trfldng Trung Qud'c. Viet Nam cung c l n cd nhflng phfldng an dam phdn tich cfle hdn, m a n h dan hdn trong viee md cfla thi trfldng Viet Nam eho hang hda la may mdc, thiet hi, edng nghe, nguyen vat lieu, phfldng tien va eae san pham khae ma Viet Nam da bao hd lau nay nhflng khong hieu qua hoac hien dang phu thudc vao ngudn cung tfl Trung Qud'c.
Tha bdy, da dang hoa quan he vdi cac ddi tac, tdng cfldng quan he vdi eac nflde Nhat Ban, An Do, Nga... de md rdng thi trfldng xud't k h a u va cd them nhieu kha nang Ifla chpn ddi tac n h a p khau thay the cho Trung Qud'e. Vi du, ve thi trfldng det may, An Dp cd t h i la dd'i tac tiem nang thay the cho Trung Qud'c.
Tha tdm, thd'ng nha't thong tin, t a n g cfldng cdng tdc truyen thdng, tao sfl ddng t h u a n trong dan, dong thdi cd sfl chi dao kip thdi, nha't quan trong tflng trfldng hpp cu the.
5. hlip.//www.meliiisoft,ciJm/Deraull dspx 't.ibid=69&Category ID=3&News=257
NghMn cdu Kmh tgs6437 • Thing 10/2014 7 5
Thuang mai ViSt Nam - Trang Qutfc...
3.2. Ddi vdi doanh nghiep
Doanh nghidp va thfldng n h a n la chu t h e trong q u a n h e kinh te' vdi Trung Qudc, can cd k l hoaeh k h a i phd t h i trfldng mdi, t d n dung Idi the' cua nhiing thi trfldng da dfldc hfldng flu dai t h u e q u a n nhdm t a n g k i n h ngach xud't k h I u , giam nhdp sidu tfl Trung Qudc.
Mud'n vay, doanh nghiep can:
- Dfla viec Ifla chpn doi tae lau dai len hdng d l u , c l n tim nhflng b a n h a n g cd t i l m nang, tin eay d l hpp tae ldu ddi, t r a n h viee ldm an chup giat, ldi dung quan he de kie'm ldi. Trong qua trinh tim kidm ddi tae, ngodi nhiing ddanh nghiep d i i tac tin cdy Trung Qudc, e l n md rdng tim kiem t h e m nguon nguyen lieu tfl eae nflde thay t h i d i n ngudn cung tfl Trung Qud'e d l giam sfl phu thupe qua Idn vao Trung Qud'e. Gia t a n g vide x u a t k h a u bdng eon dfldng ehinh ngach, h a n ehe tieu ngach.
- Xay dflng mot hinh a n h tin eay trfldc cac ddi tdc, dae biet Id ddi tde nflde ngodi. Mud'n lam dfldc vdy e l n chflng minh ndng Iflc cu the eua doanh nghiep bang cha't Ifldng san p h l m , mdu md da dang, ddc dao, tim dflpc p h a n khue thi trfldng hdp ly, tao nen thfldng hieu rieng eua Viet Nam t r e n trfldng qud'e t l .
- Chu dpng kich thieh san xud't trong nflde nhfl dat hang, da'u t h I u trong nflde trfldc khi n h a p khau. Cac doanh nghiep can kien tri k i t hdp eiing n h a u thue day p h a t trien san xua't vd tieu t h u nhflng san pham eung loai.
Cac doanh nghiep va thfldng n h d n trong tflng n g a n h h a n g cd t h e thd'ng nhSit v l gia ca, phfldng thfle m u a ban, t h a n h toan, tranh tanh t r a n g t r a n h mua, t r a n h b a n gdy thiet h a i cho chinh cac doanh nghidp Viet Nam.
C l n p h a t h u y vai trd cua cac hiep hpi, nganh n g h l trong q u a t r i n h p h d n cdng va hdp tac gifla eac d o a n h nghiep t r o n g eung nganh.
- C h u ddng t h a m gia s a n xuat cac mlit h a n g cdng nghidp p h u trd, s a n ph^m trung ^ ' gian trong chudi gia tri. Tii dd, Viet Nam c6 t h e giam dfldc n h d p sidu nhflng san pham t r u n g gian tfl "cdng xfldng eua t h i gidi". Dl lam dflpc vdy, b a n t h a n cac doanh nghiep Cling e l n cd chinh sach t h u h u t vd p h a t triln n h d n tdi mdt each p h u hdp./.
TAI LIEU THAM KHAO
1. TS. H6 Trang Thanh, ThS. Pham Bfch Ngpc (2013), Nhap sieu cua Viet Nam til Tning Qufic: thuc trang va giai phap. Tap chi Nghien cdu thuang mai s6 6 (12-2013)
2. TS. H6 Trung Thanh (2011), Nhap sieu cfia Viet Nam vdi Trung Qu6c: thuc trang va giai phap. Tap chf Quan ly nha nudc, so 180 so 1-2011.
3. TS. Nguyen Dinh Liem (2012), Quan hft thuong mai Viet Trang va va'n d& nhSp sieu cQa Viet Nam ttr Tmng Qufic, Tap chi NghiSn ciiu Trang Qutfc, s6 10 {134)-2012.
4. PGS.TS. Hoang Sy Ddng (2011), Ban vi hpp tdc kinh t^ thuong mai Viet Nam - Trang Qudc, Tap chf Quan ly kinh t^. s6 43 (9+10/2011)
76 Nghiin cOu Kmh t4sS437 - Thing 10/2014
