Vang hoa va chong vang hoa nen kinh te
N G U Y E N MANH H U N G
^iiet Nam dd khd thdnh cdng trong viec chong "dd la hoa nen kinh te"; chi sodd la hoa T»^ dd giam di ddng ke trong nhiing ndm gan day; tuy nhien "vdng hoa nen kinh te", tiic vdng thay tM'noi te trong mot so chitc ndng cua tien te, lai dang Id van de noi lin. Gan day ctf quan chitc ndng da chinh thiic phat di thong diep chong vdng hoa nen kinh te^.Tai hoi nghi triin khai nhiem vu cua ngdnh ngan hdng ndm 2014, Thu tiidng Chinh phu cdng da tiip tuc khang dinh chinh sdch quan ly chat che doi vdi vdng (Thu tiidng, 2013/. Ngan hdng Nhd niidc cUng chu trittMg giam sit hdp ddn cua vdng vdi cdng chung (NHNN, 2012) nhdm giam nhu cau nam giU vdng qud miic trong ddn chung de tap trung nguon vo'n cho cdc khu vitc thiet yeu hdn.
Bdi viet ndy diia ra nhan dinh ve tinh trang vdng hoa nin kinh te d Viet Nam, cdc nhdn to quyet dinh vd mot so'gcfi y chinh sdch titdng itng.
1. V a n g h o a n e n k i n h t e
1.1. Tii do la hoa de'n vdng hoa nen kinh te
Theo cac nghien cijfu, khai ni§m "do la hoa nen kinh te - dollarization" la hien titOng mgt dong tien nude ngoai ton tai trong hiu thong 5 mot quo'c gia t h a y t h e dong noi te t r e n mot, h a i hay toan bo chiic n a n g tien te (Watanabe, 2007). IMF va da so' cae nghien ciiu cho r a n g mot quoc gia c6 m-flc do tien giii ngoai te tii 30% so vdi M2 (tong phiiOng tien t h a n h t o a n hay ngat ngheo hdn la trong tdng huy dong vo'n ciia h§ thong ngan hang) thi difOc coi la quo'c gia co miic do do la hoa t r a m trong (Patricia Alvarez-Plate, 2008). Khao sat cho tha'y tai cac mldc trong k h u viic (Campuchia, Lao, Viet Nam) miie do do la hoa la dang ke trong nhiing n a m 1990.
NhiJng n a m gan day, hien tifdng do la hoa ci Viet N a m da giam dang ke, t u y nhien q u a n sat lai cho tha'y vai tro tien t§ cua vang (money gold) lai noi len, ngiicfi m u a vang coi vang la tai san hdn la do t r a n g siic. Ro r a n g tai Viet Nam, vang da diidc coi la mot tai san tai ehinh va thi triidng vang la mot loai t h i trifSng tai chinh q u a n trong.
D i l n bien t r e n thi trtidng vang Viet N a m trong thdi gian qua p h a n a n h cau ve tai san
h a y sil dich chuyen giiia cac t a i san, thay tM' lan n h a u giiia cac t a i s a n co t h e chuygn hoa ian n h a u (nh^t la hieu ling tim dg'n tai san tot "flight to quality"). Ve hoc t h u a t , ciing da CO nghien eiiu sti d u n g ly t h u y e t liidng cdu tai san (thi triidng t a i san) de ap dung cho vang (Mishkin F.S., 2010). Do do, vdi thiic te Vi§t Nam, sii d u n g k h u n g p h a n tich diia tren ly thuyet liidng cau t a i s a n cho vang la hdp ly eho viec giai thich va d a n h gia di§n bien tki triidng vang cl Viet N a m hdn la coi vang la h a n g hoa thong thiicfng. Hay noi each khac, cau ve vang ditdc quyet dinh bcii eac yeu to trong mo h i n h liidng cau tai san cua Milton Friedman.
Nguyen Manh Hung, TS., Tnicmg dai hoc Nguyen Tfft Thanh.
1. Theo th6ng cao bao chi ngay 16-12-2013, mflt nhiem vu trong nam 2014 cua nginh ngSn hang la "Ti^p tuc thuc hi6n cic nhiem vu duac giao ve quan Ij? thi trudng vang theo quy dinh tai Nghi dinh 24/2012/ND-CP, tang cudng vai tro di^u tiet doi v6i thi trucrtig vang, ti^p tuc khac phuc tmh trang vang hoa trong n^n kinh t€".
2. Tai H6i nghi tri^n khai nhigm vu nganh ngSn h^g nam 2014 duoc to chiic vao ngay 18-12-2013 taiHaNfii, Thu tudng Chuih phii yeu cSu phai tiep tuc kien dinh viec cat bo hoat dOng nay, tranh h6 tro cho vang hoa trong a&a kinh te' (NguySn Diic, 2013).
14
Vdng hda va chtfng vang hoa ,
X6t doi v6i vang theo dong lich sii Vigt Nam, t i n h t r a n g ngiicfi d a n do x6 di m u a vang thiidng xua't hien khi co lo ngai lam phat. Cu the, khi lam p h a t gia t a n g lien tuc trong nhi^u t h a n g (hay co tin don doan p h a gia dong noi te) cac cvLa hiSu vang thiidng chat Cling nhiing ngUcii di m u a vang. Tinh t a n g do p h a n a n h p h a n flng tii bao ve t a i san ciia d a n chiing bang each chuyen ddi tai san d a n g n a m giii sang tai san khac an t o a n hdn.
Nghien ciiu ciang cho rang, gia vang la h a n t h ^ big'u lam p h a t (Mishkin F.S., 2010).
H I N H 1: Dxicing c u n g c a u v a n g t r e n t h i trifctag v a n g
Pnce of Gold P
-.
'.
\ . Gf
N^ "N(J
^ \ / i
\ . G|
G?
Quanlily ot Gold G
Nguon. Mishkin F.S., 2010.
Theo Mishkin F.S. (2010), ly giai cho cung cau vang va bien dpng khi lam phat:
- Bitdng cau vdng (G^): vdi gia dinh cac yeu t6' k h a c khong ddi; ky vpng n a m tdi gia v a n g la PVil miie gia ky vpng PViCao hdn gia Ft hom n a y h a y viec ky vpng se co sii len gia nhieu hdn cua gia vang trong n a m tdi, t h u n h a p dli t i n h h a y ky vong cao hdn va do do liidng can v4 v a n g n h i e u hdn; d i n de'n diidng cau vang CO hifdng di xuo'ng (doc xuong), difcfng c^u vang dich chuyen tii G^•^ sang G^a Cac y^'u t o ' l a m t h a y ddi dii6ng cau vang gdm:
t a i s a n (wealth); t h u n h a p dii t i n h cua vang so v6i tai s a n t h a y t h e khac; rui ro eiia vang so v6i t a i s a n t h a y t h e khac; miic dp t h a n h k h o a n ciia v a n g so v6i tai san t h a y thS' khac.
- Budng cung vang (G'): gia vang cao, n h a san xua't se s a n xua't vang nhieu hdn - lifdng cung vang n h i e u hdn d a n den difdng cung
vang CO hiidng di len (upward sloping). Cac yeu to' lam t h a y doi dUdng cung vang gdm:
t h a y ddi eong nghe; tai m6i miic gia nha't dinh, Chinh phii quyet dinh ban vang dang n a m giii.
- Cdn bang thi tritdng vdng : G^ = G*.
1.2. Xdc dinh miic do vdng hoa nen kinh te
Vi do la hoa nen kinh te, da co k h a nhieu nghien ciiu diia r a mpt vai chi so' do dp do la hoa nhli: tong tiin giii bang ngoai te (FCD) so vdi tdng phUdng ti$n t h a n h toan (M2);
FCD so vdi tdng tien g i i (do la hoa tien giii), tin dung bang ngoai t e so vdi tdng tin dung (d6 la hoa tien vay)... Tuy nhien, diidng nhif chifa CO chi so' chinh thiic do liidng miic dp vang hoa. Tham chieu cac chi so do la hoa, chiing t a co t h e d a n h gia miic dp vang hoa qua xem xet cac k h a nang t h a y the cua vang vdi ddng tien p h a p dinh t r e n cac phUdng dien chiic n a n g tien te. N h u vay, de d a n h gia miie dp vang hoa, chiing t a eo the xem xet: chiic n a n g tiin t§ cua vang trong cac hoat dpng k i n h t e ciia xa hpi; n h u cau vang (nhap k h a u h a n g nam...); t i n h t h a m gia cua vang vao eac hoat dpng tai chinh nlui tinh hinh huy dpng vang va cho vay vang ciia cac eac n g a n hang.
1.2.1. Vdng hoa cao the hien vdng co khd ndng cao trong thay the dong ndi te tren cdc chiic ndng tien te
Tren thiic te, da co k h a nhieu n h a n dinh r a n g Viet N a m la niidc eo dp vang hoa eao xet theo eac chiic n a n g tien t e ma vang da t h a y t h e h a y la'n at dong npi te theo cac each:
(1) diing vang t h a y ddng npi t e de t h a n h toan h a n g hoa, dich vu (quan diem nay tijf q u a n sat cho tha'y khong ai phii n h a n vang h a y vang CO t h e dUdc cha'p n h a n rpng rai va t h a n h toan khong h a n che mpt each k h a d l dang tai Viet Nam, n h a t la doi vdi cae giao dich Idn, m u a b a n n h a ciia, dat dai); (2) vang ciing diidc dung k h a phd bi§'n trong thiidc do gia tri vdi ddn vi "cay vang" h a y "lUdngAang vang"; (3) diing vang de ca't trii tai san, bao vg tai san khi gia ca bien dpng...
NghiSn ciiu Kinh tS'so430 - Thing 3/2014 15
Vang hoa vd chong vang h6a
Nghien ciia cua Standard Chartered vdi tieu di "Viet N a m - siing bai vang" mpt h a m y k h a xac dang cho tinh t r a n g vang hoa cao dp ci Viet Nam. Theo khao sat nay, Viet Nam la quo'c gia tigu t h u vang Idn thii 4 tai Chau A, sau An Dp, Trung Quo'c va Thai Lan. Diem dac biet ci Viet Nam la vang va do la My deu diidc sxi dung rpng rai. Vang viia diidc dung nhu: mpt loai tien, viXa nhif mot phUdng tien cai giii; trong mpt so triiSng hdp, vang dxide coi trpng hdn ca tien gia'y. Cung theo nghi§n ciiu nay, trong sudt qua trinh lich sii, vang luon cd mpt sflc ha'p d i n dae biet vdi ngu6i Viet Nam, dUdc sxi dung rpng rai eho muc dich dau tiJ va la phifdng thiic t h a n h toan thay the tien m a t trong nhiing giao dich Idn. Trong nhiing nam gan day, vang edn dUdc sxi dung n h u m6t bi§n phap ch6hg lai lam phat va suy thoai kinh t§' the gidi.
Khao sat ciia S t a n d a r d Chartered ciing cho ket qua rang, p h a n Idn ngiidi d a n Viet N a m giii vang mieng va t r a n g site b a n g v a n g HINH 2: N h u c a u v a n g h a n g
t a i nha, chi mot lifdng v a n g nhd dxidc gxii tai n g a n h a n g . Con theo Udc t i n h ciia Hiep h5i v a n g t h e gidi (WGC), tdng lUdng v a n g tich trQ tai Vi6t N a m hien d a t k h o a n g 1.000 ta'n, tiidng diidng 45% GDP, trong khi do, tai da sd cac niidc khac t r e n t h e gidi, ty le nay chi dat difdi 3% GDP.
1,2.2. Viet Nam Id niidc co nhu cau vdng cao tren thi'gidi
Xet t r e n phiidng dien v a n g la t a i san va theo ly thuyet c l u tien ( c l u tai san), vang la tai san tai chinh nhif tien, khi do n h u clu vang ciia thi triiclng p h a n a n h c l u v^ vang.
Liidng c l u nay p h a n a n h t h u n h a p t h a y doi, t h u n h a p ciia nSm giii v a n g so vdi tai san t h a y thi khac (nhii c h d n g khoan, VND, nha da't,...) va t i n h h i n h lam p h a t va cac riii ro khac. Khi nhin n h a n vang la t a i san tai chinh, thi md h i n h lUdng c l u t a i san diia theo h a m c l u tien cua Milton Friedman^ co t h e giai thich tot sii dich chuyen cac tai san k h a e sang vang (vang hda).
n a m c u a Vifet N a m (ddn vi: ta'n)
^ <P q^ <P cf> c^ Q% ci^ Q<i c,'- <^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ S i ^ ^ ^
•Tdng (trang sijc+vang tien te) —-Trang su'c (tin) Vang ti4n t? (tan) Nguon: Hifip hOi Vang th€ gidi (WGC).
3. Ham c£u tiln cua Milton Friedman: M "
/ n..'•*-'•„, -r^.Jt
Trong do: Yp - Thu nhap thucing xuyen (la thu nhap trung binh trong doi nguoi Men tai va tuong lai) rb = Thu nhap ky vong cua trai phieu
rm = Thu nhap ky vong cua ti§^n re = Thu nh^p ky vong cua co phieu
pi(e) = lam phat ky vong (thu nhap ciia hang hoa, vi nin lam phat tSng ciing se lam tSng gia hang hoa).
1 6 Nghien cinj Kinh tSs6430 - Thang 3/2014
Vang hoa va chong vdng hoa ...
Thong ke n h u c l u vang theo cong bo' cua Hiep h6i Vang the gidi (WGC) tii giiia n h ^ i g n a m 1990, lUdng vang n h a p kh^u vao Viet Nam la r^t Idn. Viet Nam hien dupe coi la nirdc
"siing bai vang" va la niidc co nhu cau vang vao loai hang d a u the gidi. Cung theo cac td chiic nay ifdc doan, lUdng vang con tdn trii lai trong d a n Viet Nam difdi dang cat trii la khoang 1.000 tah. N h u vay ciing co the k§t luan rang miic dp vang hda nen kinh te theo nghia vang thay the VND trong mpt so chiic nang tien t§ d Viet Nam la vao loai h a n g d i u th§' gidi.
1.2.3. Chi so'vdng hoa nen kinh ti' Khi coi t i n h t r a n g v a n g hoa la t i n h t r a n g t h a y t h e tien te (currency substitution) t h i chiing t a cd t h e diing mpt vai chi so' huy dpng vang so vdi tdng tien giii, cho vay vang so v6i tdng cho vay de d a n h gia miic dd vang hoa...
Nhiing chi so n a y can difdc tiep tuc nghien ciiu, t u y n h i e n n e u so vdi n h u c l u vang thiic t6', thiic t r a n g ve sif d u n g vang trong lUu t h o n g ciing cho t a d a n h gia ve t i n h t r a n g v a n g hda n e n k i n h te.
H I N H 3: Miic d o v a n g
Ve t i n h h i n h n g a n h a n g t h a m gia cac hoat dpng lien q u a n de'n v a n g d Viet N a m , N g a n h a n g N h a nUdc l l n d i u tien cong bo' so' d u tien gxii vang tai ky hpp Quo'c hpi n g a y 31/10-1/11/2013 (Thuy Duyen, 2013). Thong tin cho biet t i n h de'n t h a n g 5-2013 cac to chiic tin d u n g da ta't toan dUdc k h o a n g 100 ta'n vang tiidng dUdng vdi hdn 80% so vdi so' d u cua cuoi n a m 2012 (khoang 125 ta'n vang). Dli lieu t h u t h a p tii cac n g u d n k h a c n h a u cho tha'y, miic dp v a n g hoa h o a t dpng n g a n h a n g theo each t i n h h u y dpng, h a y cho v a y v a n g ciia he thoang cQng cho tha'y, trUdc n a m 2012, miic dp v a n g hoa h o a t dpng n g a n h a n g la d miic d a n g ke vi lUdng h u y dpng, t r o n g khi cho vay v a n g lai ci miic tha'p. Dieu n a y chiing to cac n g a n h a n g thUdng m a i (NHTM) da duy t r i t r a n g t h a i a m ve vang la k h a cao h a y miic dp rui ro gia vang la ra't cao. Con so' Id 1.700 ty ddng eiia N g a n h a n g A C h a u (ACB) vao n a m 2011 do bien dpng gia vang cho p h e p t a k h a n g dinh ve dieu nay.
h o a h o a t d o n g n g a n h a n g 7,0% -
6,0% - 5,0% - 4,0%
3,0%
2,0%
1,0%
0,0% -
R-^y
/ /
# 2 , 2 %
0 3% ^ 0,3%
2009 2010
^ M l u y flong vang (% tong huy dpng)
— • k ^ %
>«U,6%
N.
\
_0,5% 0,3% \ 0 , 7 %
2011 ^. , . 20.12^^^ , ^ 2ni3(T6}
^ ^ C h o v a y bang vang (% tong du' npr}
Ngudn: C6ng b6' tai ky hop qu6c hOi cua Ngan hang Nha nude thang 11-2013; ThCiy Duyen, 2013; va thu thSp, udc tiiih va tinh toan cua tac gia.
1.2.4. Nguyen nhdn vdng hoa d Viet Nam c a c q u a n s a t va y kien chuyen gia k i n h t e h a n g d a u d Viet N a m deu k h a thong n h a t
cho r a n g t i n h t r a n g v a n g hda n e n k i n h t e h a y t i n h t r a n g "sung bai vang" d Viet N a m do 3 nguyen n h a n chinh: (i) do tien ddng
NghiSn ciiu Kinh lesd'430 - Thing 3/2014
17
Vang hoa va chong vdng hda
(VND) CO nhieu bien dpng, khong dn dinh n h u cac ddng tien khac, nen ngUdi dan tin vang se m a n g lai sii an toan cao hdn; (ii) do n e n san xuat trong nUde chUa p h a t trien nen ngudi d a n cd t a m ly tich liiy vang de danh.
Vang dupe diing lam cua hdi mon cho con chau cua hp; (iii) h§ thong t h a n h toan d Viet Nam rpng rai hdn cac nUdc khac, hp cha'p n h a n t h a n h toan ca bang tien ddng, bang vang va cac ngoai te. Doi vdi nhiing ngudi khong CO tien m a t van dupc chap n h a n t h a n h toan bang vang. Nhieu khi vang con tien dung hdn ca tien gia'y. N h u vay, tai Viet Nam vang vufa dUde dung nhU mpt loai t i & , viia n h u mot phUdng tien ca't giQ, trong mpt
so trudng hdp, vang t h a m chi cdn dUdc coi trpng hdn ca t i l n giay. H a y ndi each khac, miic dp vang hda la k h a t r i m t r p n g d Vigt N a m theo q u a n d i l m dinh tinh.
Theo dieu t r a , n g h i e n ciiu ciia Standard Chartered, nguyen n h a n k h i e n n h u c l u vang tai Viet N a m 5 miic cao, trUdc hit \a txi yg'u to' van hda; n h i e u ngUdi coi v a n g la mot phUdng tien tich liiy d a n g tin cay va v l n tiep tuc m u a vao dii gia ea ba't dn.
Dii li#u cd ca'u n h u c l u v a n g cua Viet Nam cho tha'y n h u cau ve v a n g t i e n t e da t a n g len ro r e t so vdi n h u cau v a n g t r a n g siic khi lam p h a t gia t a n g (hinh 4).
HINH 4: C d c a u n h u c a u v a n g c u a V i e t N a m v a C P I , G D P
Cauvangti§nt6 (truephai -CPI(%Yoy,tructrai)
EZZlCau vang trang 5iic(t"ucphai)
—»«—GDP (%,YoY, true trai)
Nguon: Hiep h6i Vang the' gidi, 2013; T6ng cue Thdng ke.
Rieng n a m 2013, Ngan h a n g N h a nude da thuc hign 76 phien da'u t h I u vang vdi tdng lUdng vang chao b a n la khoang 74 ta'n vang chuan ky hieu "SJC"(tUdng dUdng 1.930.00 lUdng vang) va lupng t r u n g t h a u la 69 ta'n vang (tUdng dUdng khoang 1.800.000 lUdng vang); t r u n g binh, lUdng chao t h I u mdi phien la 978 kg (tUdng dUdng t r e n 25.400 lupng vang) va lUdng vang dUdc n e n kinh te tieu thii mdi phi§n khoang 923 kg (24.000 lUdng)
(hinh 5). Theo t h o n g tin bao gidi, so lUdng vang n a y chu yeu dap ling n h u cau cua t^t toan t r a n g t h a i cua cac N H T M (cac NHTM m u a rdi t h a n h t o a n t r a lai cho dan). NhU vay, c6 thi tha'y t o a n bp ludng v a n g Ngan h a n g N h a nUdc b a n r a t r o n g thdi gian vC(a qua la di vao n e n k i n h te d a p ling n h u clu vang ca't trii cua d a n chiing va dudng nhU chi mpt lUdng khong d a n g k^ la dap iing n h u clu t r a n g siic h a y n h u cau k h a c .
18 Nghi4n cOu Kinh tS's6'430 - Thing 3/2014
Vang hoa va chdng vang hda
H I N H 5: D i e n b i e n 7 6 p h i e n d a u t h a u v a n g t a i Sol g i a o d i c h N g a n h a n g N h a nvidc (tCf ngay 28-3-2013 d^ 31-12-2013; Nguon: thu thap ciia tac gia tren cac phUdng tien thoi^ tin dai chiing)
- •'T r^ o CO
• Lircfng chao thau (lupng) i • LupTig trung thau (lu'p'ng) • - T y l e trung thau
1.3. Tdc dpng tieu cue cua vdng hoa nen kinh ted Viet Nam.
Dudng n h u chUa cd nhieu nghien ciiu ve tac dpng ciia v a n g hda den n e n kinh t e Viet N a m . Tuy n h i e n da cd k h a nhi^u k h a n g dinh h a m y t i n h t r a n g v a n g hoa la ti§u ciic dd'i vdi n e n k i n h te Vi$t N a m . Viec n h i n n h a n vang hda n h u t i n h t r a n g t h a y t h e tien te, h a y do la hoa ciing cd t h e cho cac ket l u a n ve tac dpng cua t i n h t r a n g t h a y t h e ddng tien p h a p dinh.
Cac tac ddng tieu cue n a y gdm;
- Vdng hoa gia tdng rui ro ddi vdi he thdng ngan hdng. Tinh t r a n g cae NHTM h u y dpng n h i e u v a n g de chuyen r a VND cho vay vdi lai s u i t cao hdn ciing p h a n a n h mpt dang vdng xoay ve v a n g doi vdi NHTM Tuy n h i e n ro r a n g t i n h t r a n g n a y ciang da lam t a n g t i n h t r a n g r u i ro, d l dd vd cua he thong n g a n h a n g . Tinh t r a n g r u i ro gia t a n g ciia cac n g a n h a n g trUdc tien p h a n a n h h a n h vi chat n h a n r u i ro q u a miic cua h e thd'ng nay.
Nghien ciiu da chi r a r a n g t i n h t r a n g cha'p n h a n n i i ro q u a miic do nghi§p vu "carry t r a d e vang" co t h e d i n tdi r u i ro he thong. Cd q u a n chiic n a n g ciing da k h a n g dinh, t i n h t r a n g v a n g h o a hoat dpng n g a n h a n g lam tang rui ro h o a t dpng n g a n h a n g do cac NHTM da h u y dpng v a n g vdi lai sua't tha'p va
chuyen r a VND de cho vay lai sua't cao va d i n tdi t i n h t r a n g rui ro khi gia vang t a n g len*. TrUdc t i n h t r a n g n a y cd q u a n chUc n a n g da kien quyet yeu cau cac NHTM phai "rut"
khoi t i n h t r a n g riii ro vang bang viee ta't t e a n t r a n g t h a i vang. Trong thiic te, ACB cd thdi ky huy dpng chUng chi vang vdi khoi lUpng k h a Idn chiem 18% tai san nd (Vii Q u a n g Viet, 2013) tUdng dUdng 1,2 trieu lupng vang tUdng dUdng vdi 2 ty USD la mpt dien hinh.
c a c q u a n s a t eung chi r a r a n g eo k h a n h i e u N H T M Viet N a m t h a m gia k i n h doanh, d a u cd vang theo each tUdng tU nhU ACB.
Vao thdi diem cud'i n a m 2013, Thong doc N g a n h a n g N h a nUde da h a m y r a n g t i n h t r a n g v a n g hda boat dpng n g a n h a n g da lam t r a m trpng hoa rui ro ma't an toan ciia h§
thd'ng n g a n h a n g va t a n g t i n h t r a n g kem m i n h bach trong kinh doanh vang mieng- vang t r a n g siic (Yen Trang, 2013).
4. NHTM di vay tai san lai suit tha^p (huy d6ng vang) 6.i d^u tu vao tai san lai suit cao (VND vao thdi di^m 2007-2008) nhimg khdng phdng chdng mi ro. Vao didi di^m cudi nam 2011, cac NHTM sd du huy ddng vang vln kha Idn, khoang 100 tah; Bi^n ddng gia vang tir 19 trieu VND/luong len 46 trieeuuj VND/ lirong da dSn A€n cac NHTM Id nang va trong dd ACB Id 1.700 ty VND (Dinh TTu Thanh Long, 2013).
Nghi4n ciiu Kinh tes6430 - Thing 3/2014 1 9
Vang hda va chong vang hoa ,
- Vdng hda nen kinh ti' keo theo ldng phi ngoai te nhap vdng, ldng phi nguon von xd hdi. Theo lich sii cii co cdn sd't vang la n e n kinh te lai doi n h a p k h a u t h e m vang ve de can thiep, binh dn gia vang. Cac tiip can ve t h i trudng vang tUdng tU n h u h a n g hda thdng thudng d i n den h a n h ddng t a n g cung vang bang each n h a p k h ^ u vang hdn la cac h a n h dpng khac. Mdi khi gia vang trong nUdc bien dpng, cac cong ty kinh doanh vang thudng de nghi cd q u a n ehiic n a n g cap phep cho n h a p k h a u vang de gdp p h l n binh dn gia vang.
e a c h dung doanh nghiep tU n h a n de dam bao Idi ich cong eong (binh dn gia vang) la mdt dieu khdng he d l dang, vi nd dudng nhU t r a i vdi nguyen tac toi da hda Idi n h u a n cua doanh nghiep trong kinh doanh... N h u vay, viec doanh nghiep n h a p k h a u vang nhieu vi muc tieu thUdng m a i t h i muc tieu dn dinh gia vang la cd p h l n m a u t h u a n va dieu do lai cang chUng td viec s^ dung ngudn ngoai t e Idn (du trii ngoai hdi) d^ n h a p vang la khdng dem de'n Ipi ich cua toan xa hpi (Idi ich eong cpng). T r a Idi cha't va'n dai bieu Quoc hdi t h a n g 11-2012, Thd'ng dd'e Ngan h a n g Nha nUdc ciing da de cap de'n va'n di n h a p vang va Idi ich quoc gia; theo q u a n diem ciia Thd'ng dd'e, vang la m a t h a n g N h a nUdc khdng k h u y e n khich k i n h doanh va khdng c I n binh dn gia. Ro rang, neu t h u gom dUdc ngudn ngoai t e Idn, t h i cau hoi can dat r a t r e n gdc dp q u a n tri cong la ngn diing ngudn luc nay cho n h a p k h a u h a n g hda khae thiet yeu hay cho n h a p k h a u vang? Do dd neu miic dp vang hda cang cao t h i nguy cd thieu h u t ngoai t e lai cang cao va siic ep p h a gia VND cang 16n.
Tinh t r a n g vang hda nen kinh te ciing da
"chon vui" nguon vo'n xa hdi, hay lang phi ngudn vo'n xa hpi. Cac Udc t i n h khong chinh thiic h a y suy l u a n triic tiep ttf lUdng vang n h a p k h a u vao n e n k i n h t e cho tha'y lupng vang n a m chet trong dan d Viet N a m la ra't Idn, udc tdi 50% GDP (WGC, 2013) va nS'u khdi thdng ngudn vo'n nay se gdp p h a n dap ling vo'n cho n e n kinh te, giam lai s u a t mpt each ben vnlng^.
LUdng vang tdn dU trong d a n ngay cang Idn dUdc ly giai la do Viet N a m bi cuon vao
"vdng xoay vang" trong mpt thdi gian tUdng dd'i dai. Vdng xoay n a y co t h ^ tdm t a t nhif sau: Cd nguy cd h a y ky vpng VND ma't gia
=> D a n dd xd di m u a v a n g => D o a n h nghigp tha'y Idi n h u a n n e n doi n h a p k h a u vang =>
N h u c l u ngoai t e t a n g => Giam dii trii ngoai hdi => Ky vpng VND p h a gia => D a n do x6 di m u a vang
- Vdng hoa co the ddn den tinh trang dong VND (dong tien phap dinh) bi chen ep. Cd th^
d l n h a n tha'y, khi cd m a t cua v a n g trong lUu thong ( s i n sang t h a y t h e VND) se lam giam vai trd tien te cua VND. Dieu n a y co the tha'y khi VND k h d n g la lUa chpn so' mpt ma t h a y vao do la v a n g h a y ngoai t e t h i se tang nguy ed ma't gia ddng ndi te (VND).
- Vdn di vdng hoa nin kinh ti' vd lUng doan, dau cd vdng ngoai te gay bat dn gid. Co mpt sd' q u a n diem ehua chinh thd'ng ve vi'n de nay. Tuy nhien, chiing t a cd t h e n h a n thiiy de'n nay ehUa cd n h i e u b a n g chflng ro rang ngoai h i n h thflc k i n h doanh s a n v a n g tU phat (nam 2008-2009) theo cai gpi la "margin trading" h a y "kinh d o a n h v a n g t a i khoan" la vi du ve r u ro dd'i vdi cac k h a c h h a n g nhd le.
- Vdng hoa Idm tram trong tinh trang mdt cdn ddi vl md nhii tham hut cdn cdn thitdng mat: mdt so' q u a n diem h a m y r a n g do tinh t r a n g h a n g n a m n h a p k h a u v a n g nhieu (khoang 100 ta'n vang, tUdng dUdng 4,4 ty USD), chiem 5% tdng kim n g a c h n h a p khau ca nUdc. Do n h u cau v a n g cao trong nUdc din den t i n h t r a n g n h a p k h a u v a n g Idn nhU v&y dUdc cho la mpt t r o n g nhiing nguygn nhan d i n din t i n h t r a n g n h a p sieu va suy yeu can can t h a n h t o a n t r o n g n h i e u n a m cua Viet Nam, tii do d a t ap liic m a t gia len VND. K^
tL£ n a m 2009, Viet N a m da 5 lan h a gia VND trong bdi c a n h can can t h a n h t o a n suy giam va lam p h a t t a n g cao.
5. Tai Hdi nghi tri^n khai cdng tic ciJa nganh ngSn hang nam 2014, ngay 18-12-2013, Thu tirdng cung yta cdu nganh ngan hang nghien ciiu giii phap huy ddng ngudn vdn vang nay (Khanh Hoa, 2013).
20 Nghiin cuv Kinh tes6430 - Thing 3/2014
Vang hoa vd chong vang hoa
- Neu n h i n n h a n v a n g hda n h u dd la hda thi rd r a n g t i n h t r a n g nay cung cd tac ddng triet tiSu t h u n h a p cho N h a nUde khi p h a t h a n h tien; giam uy tin cua n g a n h a n g t r u n g Udng. Tinh t r a n g t h a y t h e npi ti hay "do la hoa" h a y vang hda ciing da lam Chinh p h u m a t di ngudn t h u tU p h a t h a n h tien
"seigniorage".
- Tinh t r a n g t h a y t h e tien t e eung lam giam vai t r o cua n g a n h a n g t r u n g Udng ve t i n h dpc lap, giam uy tin cua n g a n h a n g t r u n g Udng... Rd r a n g n h a n tha'y, khi vang t h a y t h e ddng npi t e (VND) t h i uy tin cua Ngan h a n g N h a nude se giam va qua dd long t i n vao Ngan h a n g N h a nUdc va VND se giam, sU t r u y e n t a i cua chinh sach tien te se giam di h a y chinh sach tien te se kem hieu liic.
2. K§'t l u a n v a m o t s o gdi y c h i n h s a c h Cho du chUa cd n h i e u nghien ciiu sau sac ve v a n g hda va tac dpng vang hda d Viet N a m , tuy n h i e n thiic t^' va theo each tig'p can
"thay thd' tidn te" h a y do la hda thi cd t h e tha'y: miic dd vang hda d Viet N a m la dang k e (nha't la trUde n a m 2012) t r e n mpt gdc dp nha't dinh. Nguyen n h a n ciia t i n h t r a n g vang hda 6 Viet N a m la yeu td' v a n hda tieu dung vang, yeu to' t a m ly q u a n ngai cua d a n chiing ve l a m p h a t lien tuc va dai dang trong lich sii d Vi§t N a m . Cach tiep can ve vang trong q u a n ly v a n g chUa p h u hdp va Idi n h u a n tU vang ciing da t a o n e n vdng xoay v a n g va do do n h u c l u v a n g cao lien tuc trong nhig'u n a m . . . Nhiing tac ddng tieu ciic ciia t i n h t r a n g n a y 5 Viet N a m cd mpt so bang chiing k h a hien n h i e n la vang hda da lam gia t a n g riii ro, ba't dn cua he thd'ng n g a n hang, lam t r a m t r p n g t i n h t r a n g t h a m h u t can can thUdng mai, l a n g phi ngudn vo'n xa hpi va t a n g chi p h i vdh... Mdt so'tae ddng khac n h u tac dpng de'n c h i n h sach tien te, de'n t h u n g a n sach tii p h a t h a n h tien cua n g a n h a n g t r u n g Udng ... can dUdc nghien cxtu chuyen s a u hdn k h i cd cd sd dii liSu p h u hdp. De k h a c phuc nhiing tac dpng tigu cUe, tac gia cd mot so gdi y chinh sach nhU sau:
- Chinh p h u can t a p t r u n g vao cac giai p h a p dai h a n thiic day sii on dinh cua nen k i n h te, cai thi§n niem tin vao VND va qua dd lam giam n h u cau ve vang h a y c l u ngoai te, qua dd gdp p h a n binh dn t h i trUdng vang ndi dia trong dai h a n .
- Kien dinh vdi chu trUdng chong vang hoa n e n k i n h te vdi cac giai p h a p kinh te va trong thdi ky d i u cd the sit dung eac giai p h a p h a n h chinh hdp ly: trong giai doan dau, viec ed q u a n chUc n a n g sii dung cac giai p h a p h a n h chinh h a n che sU ha'p d i n cua vang la p h u hdp (ban che sii d u n g vang lam phUdng tiSn t h a n h toan, khdng cong n h a n vang la tien te, h a n che' cac NHTM huy ddng vang, N h a nude ddc quyen n h a p k h a u vang mieng...), tien tdi sxi dung cae giai p h a p k i n h te, chinh sach nhU d a n h t h u e vdi cae giao dich vang Idn ciia td chiic (khong ap dung dd'i vdi ca n h a n vi lUdng giao dich nhd), b a n che eac giao dich vang ma gid'ng nhU tien (tin dung, huy ddng vang cua cac NHTM).
- Kien quyet tri6t de cha'm diit boat dpng huy dpng, cho vay vo'n bang vang cua cac ngan hang. Viec kien quyet n a y se cd tac dpng giam t a m ly n l m giii, d i u cd vang, n g a n ngiia rui ro cho cae ngan h a n g . Tiep tuc ap dung cac giai p h a p n h a m duy tri ket qua da dat dUdc ve cha'm dUt huy ddng va cho vay vdh b a n g vang va thiic hien triet de viec ta't toan t r a n g t h a i vang, giam du nd cho vay vang n h i m loai bd rui ro lien q u a n d e n v a n g r a khdi boat ddng eua n g a n h a n g . Toan bp so' du giii hd vang c I n dUde chuyen sang dUde haeh toan ngoai b a n g , c l c n g a n h a n g khdng dupe s^ dung vang giii hd dUdi mpi h i n h thiic (hay thilc hien tai khoan chuyen biet, khdng dupe si( d u n g (allocated account).
- Ngan h a n g N h a nude can kien dinh vdi cac giai p h a p dn dinh tien ti, ehd'ng lam p h a t dai h a n : tiep tuc cd giai p h a p chinh sach tien te chat che, kiem soat lam p h a t va t r u y e n thdng chinh sach t i l n te p h u hdp n h a m t a n g cUdng sii m i n h bach cua ehinh sach tien te;
h a n che ky vpng q u a miic ve ma't gia VND, ky vpng lam p h a t qua miic... t r e n cd sd dd
NghiSn ciiu Kinh t^sS430 - Thing 3/2014
21
Vang hoa vd chong vdng hoa
b a n chd' cau vang trong nude; t a n g niem tin vao VND d a m bao de n h a d a u tU n l m giii VND (tai san b i n g VND), khdng cd hien tUdng thao chay khdi VND m a do xd di m u a vang n h u nhieu n a m trUdc day.
- Ngan h a n g N h a nUde tiep tuc dpc q u y I n v l vang trong vai n a m tdi n h a m xda di t i n h t r a n g "sung bai vang" ( n l m giii vang qua miic va khdng c I n thiet cua dan cu), tiep tuc duy tri gia vang trong nUdc cao hdn gia vang qud'c te trong thdi gian p h u hdp n h i m giam Idi n h u a n ky vpng n a m giii vang va qua dd giam c l u vang. Ly thuyet lUpng cau tai san chi r a rang, nd'u gia vang trong nUdc eao hdn gia vang qud'c t l , n h a d a u tU se ky vpng r i n g Idi n h u a n n l m giii vang se tha'p (hay am) do gia vang cd the giam de b i n g gia quo'c te, do dd khdng n l m giii vang va c l u vang giam.
Thiic te thdi gian qua da cho tha'y, vide d i l u h a n h gia vang trong nUdc cao hdn gia vang qud'c te da dUa d i n t h a n h cdng giam c l u vang trong nUde va thiic te da dn dinh gia vang (dieu ma dU l u a n da cd q u a n d i l m hoan toan khae)^./.
TAI LIEU THAM KHAO
1. Dinh Thi Thanh Long (2013), "Kinh doanh vang cua NHTM: hoat ddng carry trade gay rui ro h& thdng".
Tap chi Khoa hoc vh dao tao ngdn hSng, Hoc vifin Ngan hang, so 135, thang 8-2013.
2. Mishkin Frederic S. (2010), "llie Eonomics of Money, Banking, and Financial Market" , 9 th Editionm by Frderich S. Mishkin, tr. 511.
3. Khanh Hoa (2013), "Vi sao ngudi Viet Nam "sijng bai v^ng"?"- Ngan hang Standard Chartered ly giai vi sao nhu c5u vang Viet Nam thuSc hang Idn nhat the' gidi..."
Tai http://vneconomy.vn/26l30605035I49933P0C6/vi- sao-nguoi-viet-nam-sung-bai-vang.htm;
4. Kienthuc (2013), (Kienthuc.net.vn) " M 6 xe tam ly siing bai vang cua ngudi Viet" Ngly dang: 19:02 06-06- 2013 tai http://kienthuc.nel.vn/dat-tien'Vang/mo-xe-tam- ly-sung-bai-vang-cua-nguoi-viet-235549.html.
5. U Thj An ChSu (2011), "Vang se la'n at ddng ndi te" tai http://dddn.com.vn/tai-chinh/vang-se-lan-at-dong- noi-te-2011081102443246.htm (ngay 15-8-2011 -08:20) va tai http://kinhte24h.com/view-gh/55/77658.
6. Le Van Hinh (2011), "Vang hoa n^n kinh te: loi hay hai?" Bao Dien dan doanh nghiep, tai http://dddn.com.vn/tai-chinh/vang-hoa-nen-kinh-te- loi-hay-hai-20110923I10546410.htm, ngay 26-9-2011 - 07:30).
7. Mmh Dtic (2013), "Thu tudng: "KiSn quy^t d<)c quydn xu^it nhap vhng"", tai http://vneconomy.vn/20131218023352377P0C6/thu- tuong-kien-quyet-doc-quyen-xuat-nhap-vang.htm.
8. Ngd Tri Long (2012), "Dimg lam dung "chdng
ving hoa"" tai http://vneconomy.vn/20121118113354327P0C6/dung- '
lam-dung-chong-vang-hoa.htm (Thdi dilm 06:00 (GMT+7), thi5 hai, 19-11-2012).
9. Ngan hang Nha nudc (2013), Tai hfiu hdi nghi tri^n khai cdng tic nganh ngln hang nam 2014 (thang 12-2013) tai lieu hop bao va tai lifiu ndi bd.
10. Ngan hang Nha nudc (2012), "V^ thi tnrdng vang, no xa'u, thanh lap cdng ty mua bin no xlu, dianh khoan va tang truong tin dung"- Tap Chi Ngan hang, sd 22 thing 11-2012 (Tra Idi chat v& dai bieu Qudc hdi ciia Thdng ddc Ngan hang Nha nudc ngay 31-11-2012 tai KJ hop Qudc hdi khda XIII).
U.Quynh Anh (2012), "Chdng "vang hda" nin kinh te' - dupe nhieu hem m^t" tai http://laodong.com.vn/kinh- doanh/chong-vang-hoa-nen-kinh-te-duoc-nhieu-hon-mat- 91407.bld (Bao Lao d6ng online gid 2:0 PM, ngay 12- 11-2012.
12. Vu Quang Via (2013), "Khung hoang va he thdng tin dung. Phan tich ilng dung vdi kinh te My vS Viet Nam"- Tap chi Thdi dai mdi, sd 27 thang 3-2013.
13. Yen Trang, 2013 (ghi) "Nam 2013: thdng dam vi ty gia va thi trudng vang", phat bieu cua Thdng ddc Nguyen Van Binh dSng lai /PLTPHCM tai http://fica.vn/tai-chinh/nam-2013-thang-dam-ve-ti-gia- va-thi-miong-vang-17-7989.html, Chu Nhat, ngky 29-12- 2013 09h35.
14. Khanh Linh (2012), "Thd'ng ddc NgSn hkng Nha nirdc: vang la mat hang khdng khuyfe'n khich nSn khOng cSn binh 6n gii", thii ba, 13-11-2012 14:33:30 tai:
http://vi'ww.tinmoi.vn/thong-doc-nhnn-vang-la-mat-hang- khong-khuyen-khich-nen-khong-can-binh-on-gia- 011102446.html.
15. Chinh phii (2012), Nghi dinh 24/2012/ND-CP ngay 3-4-2012 ciia Chinh phii vi quan ly hoat ddng kinh doanh vang
16.Thdng ddc Ngan hang Nha nudc (2013), "Bao cSo sd: 135/BC-NHNN ngay 11-11-2013 cua Thdng dflc NHNN v6"Kei qud thuc hien Nghi quyet cua Qudc hdi vl chat van va tra Idi chat vin tai Ky hpp thii 3, thii 4 wa thii 17. Ngan hang Nha nudc (2013), Tai lidu hpp bao ngay 14-12-2013 va tai lieu hdi nghi tnin khai cdng tac ngan hang nam 2014 cung phdt bieu ciaa Thu tudng Chinh phii.
18. Thiiy Duyen (2013), "Giao dich vang mifing gi^m manh, du no cdn 5,6 tfin" tai trang web http://vneconomy.vn/2013111705314962P0C6/giao-dich- vang-mieng-giam-manh-du-no-con-56-tan.htm.
6. Xem: tjy ban Kinh t^cua qud'c hdi (2003), Bdo cao kinh te'.sd 9-2013.
22 Nghi4n cdu Kinh t§s6430 - Thing 3/2014
