Nghiin cUu
THU" NGHIEIM DU* BAO NHIET DO VA LlTONG MXSK T R £ N K H U VlTC HA NQI BANG M 6 HINH WRF
Chu Thi Thu Hudng, Nguyen Tiln Manh, Nguyen Trin Hoang, Tran Due Viet Trudng Dai hpc Tii nguyen va Mdi tradng Hi Ndi Tdm tit
Du bdo tha nghiem tu 1 din 3 ngdy cho nhiet do khong khi be mgt (Tsfc) vd luong mua tich By 24h cho cdc trgm trin khu vifc Hd Noi trong thdng 1 vd thdng 7 ndm 2016 bang mo hinh WRF thdy rang, mo hinh WRF thuang du bdo nhiet do thdp han vd lugng mua cao han thuc te. Kit qud du bdo Tsfc trung binh ngdy khd tdt, chi khodng 0,5 -^ PC (ddi vai hgn die bdo 24 gia), khodng 1 ^ 2°C (doi v&i hgn dir bdo 48h vd 72h). Tuy nhien, do cdc he thdng th&i tiit thu&ng dugc mo hinh du bdo di chuyen chgm han so v&i thuc ti nin sai so du bdo thu&ng l&n han trong cdc ngdy md cdc he thong ndy dnh huang true tiip din khu vuc. B&i vgy, cd viing mua vd lugng mua vdn cdn sai so khd Ion. Hon nun, sai so dye bdo trong thdng 1 thu&ng nho hem trong thdng 7.
Tir khoa: Nhiet dp khdng khi be mat (Tsfc); Md hinh WRF; Sai sd du bao Abstract
Experimental predictions for temperature and precipitation in hanoi using the WRF model
Experimental predictions ofl to 3 days for surface air temperature (Tsfc) and Cumulative rainfall within 24 hours for meteorological stations in Hanoi during January and July 2016 that is used the WRF model. The results indicate that, the WRF model often predicts lower temperatures and higher rainfall than actual ones.
The average daily Tsfc forecasts are good, only about 0.5^1''C (for 24 hours forecast period), about I—2"C (for 48 hours and 72 hours forecast period). However, because weather systems are predicted to move more slowly than reality, the forecast errors are often greater in days when the systems affect directly the area. Therefore, the error in rain areas and rainfall is still quite large. Moreover, the forecast error in January is usually smaller than in July.
Keywords: Surface air temperature (Tsfc); WRF model; Forecast errors 1. Md dau cua biln ddi khi hiu. DiSn hinh tiong Dy bao thdi tilt l i mdt ttong nhung * a n g 1 nam 2016, miln Bic Viet Nam nhiem vy quan ttpng cua nginh Khi cbm inh hudng cua dgt ret ky luc ttong tiipng, nd cd inh hudng khdng nhd din vdng nhilu nam qua, tai cic tinb miln cic nginh, cac ITnh vuc khic nhau ttong ™i phia Bic xay ra ret dam, ret hai, ddi song x i hdi. Trong nhung nam gin kem theo mua tuylt dien rdng, gay thiet day, khi hau toin ciu da va dang biln hai hang ngin eon gia sue, nhieu hecta ddi raanh me, tin suit v i cudng dp hoa miu va cay cdng nghiep ngan ngiy.
thiSn tai ngay cang gia ting tien toin Trong thing 7 nam 2016, miSn Bac chiu thS gidi. Viet Nam l i mgt trong nhung thiet hai nang n l do mua ldn keo dii, qudc gia chiu inh hudng nang n l nhit die biet la tinh Quang Ninh. Mua Iii da 50 Tgp chi Khoa hgc Tdi nguyin vd Mdi tru&ng -Sd 19- nam 2018
Nghiin cuu khien hing nghin n h i bi ngap, hoa m i u
v i vat nudi bi cudn tidi, gay thipt hai to ldn vS ngudi va eua, inh hudng nghiem tipng tdi su phat tiiln kinh te, xa hdi.
Hien nay, vdi sy phat tiiSn cua khoa hpc, cong nghe may tinh, cac md hinh dy bao sd tii da dupc ap dung tiong dy bao thdi tiet hang ngay va du bao han mua, dac biet la cac hien tugng thdi tiet cue doan nhu mua ldn, bao, i p thap nhiet ddi, ret dam, ret hai, sai sd ttong k h i nang eho phep, dy bio v i dinh lugng khi cbinh xie. Mdt ttong nhung md hinh dang dugc sd dung tiong nghiSn cdu va dy bao nghiep vu la rad hinh WRF, Day la md hinh khi quyen quy md vua, he phuang trinh dgng lyc hpc phi thuy finh, eic so do vat li dugc tich hgp eho nhiing dng dyng d quy md tu raet din hing nghin km va cd ma ngudn md dS ngudi su dung ed thS dua them cic sa dd vat Iy vio md hinh, dieu kien biSn di dpng, ed he thdng ddng hda sd lieu 3DVAR, ky thuat Idng ghep mien tinh di dpng. Vdi nhung uu diem tten, da cd rit nhiSu tie gia su dung md hinh WRF vao nghiSn cdu va cho kSt qui tiicmg d l i tdt. Cy thi, Chu Thi Thu Hudng (2006) da sd dyng md hinh WRF vdi lin lugt hai sa dd tham sd hda ddi luu Betts-Miller-Janjic v i Kain-Fritsch de dy b i o mua ldn cho khu vuc Trung Bp ttong thdi ban td I din 3 ngay. KSt qua cho thiy, lugng mua dy bao thudng thip han so vdi thuc tl, cdn dien mua thi chua thue su chinh xic. Horn nua, sa dd Betts-Miller-Janjie du bao lugng mua va sa dd Kain-Fritsch thi dy bio dien mua chmh xac horn [2]. Ciing vdi myc dich dy bao mua ldn cho khu vyc Trung Bd, song Nguyen Thi Thanh (2010), da tien hinh viec ddng hda sd lieu ve tinh MODIS vao md hinh WRF.
Kit q u i chi ra rang, viee ddng hda sd
lieu ve tinh eho ket qui khi tdt ddi vdi han du bao dudi 30 gid, nhung vdi han dy bao td 30 dSn 54 gid thi viee dong hda s l liSu khdng cho kit qui vugt tipi so vdi trudng hgp khdng ddng hda [3].
Ben canh do, de danh gii kha nang dy bao mua ldn eho khu vyc Trung Trang Bp khi tiSn khu vyc ehiu anh hudng kit hgp cda khdng khi lanh va dii hdi ty nhiet ddi, Nguyen Tien Toin (2011) da su dung phuang phap hdi quy tung budc dya tiSn san phim du bao cda md hinh WRF kit hgp vdi cic sd lieu dia phuang. Tie gii eho ring, ket qui dy bio mua chinh xac han khi dy bio cd cap nhat sd lipu dia phuang [4]. Ngoii ra, de khao sat dp nhay cua cic so dd tham sd hoa ddi luu tiong viec dy bio mua, NguySn Thi Hanh va cs (2016) da sd dyng rad hinh clWRF dl dy bio lugng mua han mua (tu 1 den 6 thing) cho cic tiiang 6, 7, 8, 9 nam 2012. Kit qui eho thiy, sa do Kain-Fritsch thudng du bio lugng mua cao ban v i sai sd ldn ban, dac biet d vung khi hau Nara Bd.
Trong khi dd, sa do Betts-Miller-Janjic va Grell Devenji thudng dy bio thap han thyc tl, nhit l i d cac khu -vuc phia Bic, Hem nua, nghiSn cdu cung cho thiy, md hinh c/WRF cho kit qui dy bio tdt ban d cac vung khi hau phia Bic va kem hem d vung khi hau Nam Bp [1].
Cd the ndi, mac du ket qui dy b i o eua cua md hinh WRF van edn ed nhiing ban cbS nhit dmh, song so vdi radt s l md hinh ra ddi trade dd nhu HRM, MM5, ETA,... tiii kit qua dy b i o cua md hinh WRF ciing kha phu hop.
Mac du vay, cic nghiSn cdu trade dd chi dvmg lai viec rad phdng hay du bao thdi tilt ndi chung hay nhiet dp va lugng mua ndi rieng cho cic khu vyc, phara vi ldn rai hiu nhu chua cd nghien cim nio su dung md hinh WRF de dy - 51 Tap chi Khoa hgc Tdi nguyen vd Mdi tru&ng -So 19 - 12018
Nghien cuu
b i o dilm. Chinh vi thi viec sd dung md hinh WRF dl thd nghiSm dy bio Tsfc v i lupng mua cho khu vuc Ha Ndi tiong thing 1 va thing 7 l i mpt vin de eo tinh thye tiSn, nhim dap ung nhiing yeu cau ngiy cing cao cua xa hdi.
2. So liSu va phirung p h a p nghien cdu
2.1. So lieu
So lieu tradng ban diu dugc su dyng tiong md hinh la kSt qui dy bao cda md hinh dy bao toin ciu GFS tiong thang I v i thing 7. Diy la sd lieu cua cac biln khi quyln tiSn ludi vdi dp phin giii ngang la 0,5x0,5 dp kmh vi va 27 myc thing dung tii 1000 den lOmb. So lieu dugc luu dudi dang GRIB2, cd ban du bao tdi da 16 ngay (384 gid) v i dugc khai thic tai -website: http://nomads.
ncdc. noaa. gov/GFS/grid4.
Sd lieu tai phin tich cua cic trudng mua, nhiet dp khdng khi bS mat, dp cao dia thi vi v i gid trSn cac myc ding ap chuin 1000, 850, 700, 500, 300 va 200mb dugc sd dyng d l so sinh vdi cic kit qui dy bao cda md hinh. Sd lieu nay cd dp phan giii 0,5 x 0,5 dd kmh vT, dugc eung cap bdi Tnmg tara Du bao ban vda chiu Au (ERA) va dugc khai thic tai website; http://apps.ecmwf.int/
datasets/data/interim-full-daily.
Sd HSu quan tiac Tsfc trung binh, cao nhit, thip nhit ngay v i lugng mua tiong timg obs quan tiic (1, 7, 13 v i 19 gid) tai 5 tiam khi tugng tien khu -vuc H i Ndi (Ha Ddng, Ling, Son Tay, Ba Vi, Hoii Ddc) frong thing 1 va thing 7 nam 2016 dS dinh gia ket qui dy bio Tsfc trang binh v i lugng mua tich My 24 gid tiong cac ban dy bio 24,48 va 72 gid cua md hinh.
2.2. Phirang phdp nghien cuu
a. Phuangphdp dubdo Dy bio Tsfc va lugng mua tich luy 24 gid tiong thdi han 24, 48 va 72 gid cho khu vuc H i Ndi tiong thing 1 v i tiling 7 bing md hinh WRF, nghien cdu sd dung phien ban WRF3.8 vdi 27 myc thing dung va ludi ldng.
Dilu kien ban dau cua md binh la cic trudng cac ylu td khi tugng cua cic dy b i o toan ciu NCEP-GFS, bude thdi gian sai phin la 90 giay.
• Miin tinh ciia mo hinh Trong nghiSn cuu niy, chiing tdi da dy bao thd nghiem vdi 3 mien tinh ldng ghep vdi tpa dp tam ludi la 21°N, 105,85''E (hmh 1). Trong do, miln I ed do phan giii 36km, vdi 100 x 95 dilm ludi, dam bao mdt vung dd rpng dS dinh gii inh hudng cua cic tmng tam khi ip chinh cung nhu cua gid mua dSn thdi tiSt khu vuc Ha NOi. Miln 2 c6 dp phan giai 12km, vdi 88 x 85 dilm ludi. Miln 3 cd dp phin giai 4km vdi 76 x 73 dilm ludi.
Miln nay bao trdm Ha Ndi va cae tinh lan can. Td do, ban dd tradng cac yeu td khi tugng dugc ve trSn ludi 2, edn gia tri nhiet dp v i lugng mua du bio duge ehilt xuit tai ludi 3.
Hinh 1: Cdc miin tinh trong nghien ciru Cdc sa do tham so vgt ly trong mo hinh
Trong nghiSn ciru niy, cac sa do tham sd hda dugc sd dung dS chay dy bio thd nghiSra gdm: Sa do tham sd hda d l i luu Betts-Miller-Janjic, sa d l tiiam 52 Tgp chi Khoa hgc Tdi nguyin vd Moi truang - So 19 - ndm 2018
Nghien cuu SO VI vat ly may Thompson, so dd bde
xa sdng ngan RRTM, hue xa sdng dai Dubia, sa do b l mat MM5, so dd ldp dit bS m^t Noah LSM.
b. Phuang phdp ddnh gid kit qud dubdo
Sau khi chay rad hinh dy bao ban td 1 den 3 ngay cho timg ngay tiong thing 1 v i thing 7 n i m 2016, nghien cdu su dyng cac chi sd thing ke dS dinh gii kit qui dy bao.
Cic chi sd duge sd dyng tiong nghien cdu nay gdm: sai sd trang binh (ME - Mean Error), sai sd trang binh tuyet ddi (MAE - Mean Absolute Error v i sai sd binh phuang trung binh (RMSE - Root Mean Square Error). Cac sai sd niy se dupe tinh trung binh tiong timg thing va ddi vdi timg han dy bio.
ME:
MAE-
z:.(^-q)
N
N(1)
(2)
'^S'^ = h^'L(p.-o.f (3)
Trong dd, Fi l i gii tri dy b i o thd i;
Oi l i gii tri quan tiac thd i; N la dung lugng miu.
Sai sd trang binh (ME) xic dinh xu thS md hinh dy bao vugt qua hay thip hem gii tri thuc tl. Gia tii ME duang the hien xu the dy bio cua rad hinh vugt qua gia tii quan trie v i ngugc lai gia tii am cua ME the hien xu the du bao cua md hinh thap han gii tri quan frac.
Sai sd trang binh tuyet ddi (MAE) cho bilt dp Idn tmng binh cda sai s l nhung khdng chi ra hudng cda do ISch.
Sai sd binh phucmg tirung bmh (RMSE) xie dinh sai sd ve dg ldn cua bien
Tap chi Khoa hgc Tdi nguyen vd Moi truang -So 19 - nam 2018
dy bao. Gii tri nay cang tien tdi khdng thi md hinh du bio cang ehinh xac,
3. K i t qua d u bao thu nghifm Trong nghiSn ciiu nay, nhdm tac gia da phan tich v i danh gia kit qui dy bao thd nghiem ddi vdi han dy bao 24, 48 v i 72 gid cua timg ngiy ttong thing I v a 7 nam 2016. Tuynhien, tiong khudn khd bai bio nay, nhom tic gia chi dua ra hinh inh minh hpa cho cac ngiy cd Tsfc cao, thip nhat hoac cd mua ldn tiong thing. Cy thi, chung tdi tien hanh phan tich tradng Tsfc luc 7 gid ngiy 23, 24, 25 (trong thing 1), luc 13 gid ngay 16,17, 18 (tiong thing 7) va Iupng mua tich luy 24 gid tiong cac ngiy 27, 28, 29/7 tuang ung vdi dy bao ban 24, 48 va 72 gid. Ddng thai, ngudn sd lieu tai phin ticb dupc sd dung dl dinh gia ket qua du bao tiong cic ngiy tucmg dng.
3.1. Du' bdo nhiet dp khdng khi be mat
Ket qua du bio Tsfc luc 7 gid ngay 23/1/2016 cho thiy, tmdng Tsfc du bio va tai phin tich khi tuang ddng vdi nhau, Tsfc dy bao van cao ban phan ticb khoing 2 -^ 3»C (Hmh 2).
Ket qua niy cd thi do md hinh da dy bio chua tdt thdi diem xim nhap cua khdng khi lanh. Thdi dilm khdng khi lanh anh hudng din khu vyc Ha Ndi ttong thyc te sdm hem so vdi thdi diSm dy bao bang md hinh nSn Tsfc thyc t l giam nhieu hon du bio tiong ngiy nay.
Sang ngiy 24 va 25 thing 1, tradng Tsfc giua gii tri dy bio v i tai phan ticb khi ddng nhit. Luc niy hoin lira cua khdng khi lanh da bao trdm toan bp khu vyc nen tradng nhiet kha In dinh. Theo sd lieu quan tiac, Tsfc luc 7 gid ngay 23 thing 1 tai cac tiam khi tupng d HaNpi dao ddng tii 7 ^ lO^C. Din ngay 24, 25 thing 1, Tsfc da giam xudng ttSn dudi 5''C.
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Nghiin cih/
I d t lui ?i.?i/OI/2016
Hinh 2: Tru&ng Tsfc luc 7gi& ngay 23/1/2026 hgn dy bdo 24-48- 72 gi& (phia tren) vd sd lieu tdi phan tich 23, 24, 25/1/2016 (phia du&i)
Hinh 3: Bdn do Tsfc ldc 13 gi&ngdy 16/07/2016 hgn du bdo 24-48- 72 gi& (phia tren) va s6 lieu tai phdn dch (phia du&i)
Tucmg til tiong thing I, bin dd tmdng Tsfc luc 13 gid trong cic ngay 16, 17 vi 18/7/2016 la kit qui du bio ban 24,48 va 72 gid cda ngiy 15/7/2016 cung dugc phin ticb vi so sanh vdi bin
do tii phan tich trong cic ngiy tuang dng. Cd thi thiy, vdi ban du bio 24 va 48 gid, md hinh da du bio tucmg ddi chinh xac tradng Tsfc tien khu vyc, dac biet li viing xay ra ning ndng tiong 2 Tap chi Khoa hgc Tdi nguyen vd Mdi tru&ng -So 19- nam 2018
Nghien cieu ngay 16/7 va 17/7. Cy the, tiong ngiy
16/7/2016, frSn vung Ddng bing Bic Bp nang ndng da xiy ra, thim ehi Tsfc d phia Nam eua vung cdn Ien tdi 38°C.
Sang ngay 17/7/2016, pham vi vung nang ndng tiSn c i ban dd du bao va tai phan tich dSu cd xu hudng md rgng ban v l phia Ddng Bic v i xudng phia Nam.
Tuy nhien, din ngiy 18/7, md hinh lai du bao Tsfc thip hem td 2 ^ 4^0 so vdi thyc tS. Theo sd liSu tai phan tich, pham vi v i nhiet dp vimg nang ndng biSn ddi khdng nhilu so vdi ngay 17/7, song kit qua du bao Tsfc tten cic vung niy chl dao dpng tii khoang 33 - 36'>C (Hinh 3).
Sai sd dy bao Tsfc tmng binh ttong thing 1 va thing 7/2016 dli vdi eic ban dy bio 24, 48 v i 72 gid dupc chi ra ttong hinh 4.
Cd the thay, sai sd trung binh deu cd gii tii am,^ gia tri dy bio thap ban gii tii quan ttie (Hinh 4), Gii tri sai sd tmng binh doi vdi ban du bao 24 gid tiong thing 1 (ME < 0,5) nhd ban tiong thing 7 (ME ~ 1), nhit la tai tiam Ba Vi (ME ~ 0), Doi vdi ban dy bao 48h v i 72h, ME dao ddng khoing tii 1 -^ 2^0 (tiong ca thing 1 va 7). So vdi cac tiam ttSn khu -vuc, Tsfc du bio tai tram Ba Vi (ddi vdi cac han du bao) tiong thing 7 cung dSu cd sai sd nhd nhat (xap xi 0,l''C)(Hmh4b).
6,0 5 0 — - • - 2.0 0.0 LO -1.0 -2 0 -3.0
• BaVi .^ Ha Bong • H M I D U C xUng •> Son Tay
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31 £ii>c S Lang ^C So'n Tay
Hinh 4 Sai so du bdo Tsfc trung binh ngay tgi Hd Npi trong thdng 1 (ben trdi) va thang 7 (ben phdi) v&i th&i hgn du bdo 24, 48 vd 72 gid Nhu vay, cd thS ndi, md hinh WRF
da du bio Tsfc ngiy kha tdt. Sai sd ldn nhat xiy ra ddi vdi Tsfc trang binh ttong 2 thing nay chi khoang PC, 1,2^0 va 2''C ddi vdi cac ban dy bio 24, 48 va 72 gid tuong iing. Trong do, sai sd ldn nhit xiy ra tai tiam Ha Ddng vdi ME cao hem so vdi cic ttam khic trong khu vuc tii 0,2 - 1,5°C (ttrr ttam Ba Vi).
3.2. Du bdo lirong mua tich lUy 24 gi&
Tuomg ty nhu du bao nhiet dp, lugng mua tich luy 24 gid trang binh trong thing 1 va 7/2016 vdi cac ban dy b i o 24, 48 v i 72 gid cung duge minh hpa bdi 1 dgt mua ldn. Day la dgt mua do anh hudng cua can bao sd 1 (MIRINAE). TrSn b i n dd phan bd khi
ip bS mat ldc 7 gid ngiy 27/7, bao sd 1 nam tren Biln Ddng (19,5<'N; 108,5"E).
Nd di chuyen theo hudng Tay Tay Bac dd bd v i o Bic Bd. Luc 19h cung ngiy, vi tii tim bao d khoing 19,9"N;
106,6*'E, nam tren vung biSn tinh Thii Binh. Do anh hudng eua hoan luu bao, khu vuc H i Ndi da cd raua. Den ngiy 28/7, bao tiep tuc di sau vao dit liSn.
Ha NOi nam hoan toin tiong hoan luu bao nen lugng mua dat gii tri ldn nhat.
Sang ngay 29/7, bao suy ySu va chi cdn la vung ap thap nen mua cung giim di rat nhieu.
Ban dd mua tich liiy 24 gid va tai phan tich tiong cic ngiy 27, 28 va 29/7/2016 da dugc phan tich dS danh gii dien mua dy b i o ciia md hinh vdi Tgp chi Khoa hoc Tdi nguyen vd Moi tru&ng - Sd 19 - nam 2018 55
Nghiin cdv
cac han du bio 24, 48 va 72 gid cua ngiy 26/7/2016 (Hinh 5).
Cd thS thay, vimg mua du bao lech hem v l phia Ddng so vdi sd lieu tii phin tich. Trong ngay 27/7, ta thay mOt vimg mua khi ldn tien khu vuc vinh Bac Bp, vdi lupng raua tich ldy 24 gid len den tien 100 mm. Vung trang t a n mua phia tay dio Hai Nam (khoang I08,5''E, 18"N) vdi lugng mua tich ldy ISn tdi tiSn 500 mm. Cdn d cic tinh ven biln Ddng bang Bac Bd, lugng mua chi dat tii khoang 50 dSn 100 mm. KSt qui niy cung khi phu hpp vdi mua tai phin tich, song vung mua tien 100 mm ttong sd lieu tii phin tich md rpng ban so vdi dy bao.
Sang ngiy 28/7/2016, do bao d i dd bo nen vimg mua di chuyin vio sau frong dit liSn. Tuy viing mua dy bao vin lech ban sang phia Ddng, song so vdi ket qua dy bio cho ngay 27 va ngay 29/7 thi vimg mua du bio frong ngiy nay phu hpp vdi thyc te hon. Lugng mua tich liiy 24 ^ d tai Ha Ndi frong ngiy 28/7 cung ISn dSn 300 mm. Sang ngay 29/7, bao da tan nSn frSn bin dd tai phan tich, vung mua da thu hep va lech ban vl phia Tiy Bic. TrSn khu vyc Ddng bang Bic Bd ndi chung v i t^i H i NOi ndi riSng, lugng mua tich luy chi khoang 50 mm. Song theo kSt qua du bio, khu vuc mua ldn van tdn tai tren Bic Bd vdi lupng mua ldn nhit len tdi ti-en 500 mm ttSn viing Ddng bing v i Ddng Bic Bd (Hhih 5). Tu do, cd the thiy ring, md hinh WRF da du bio khi tdt quy djio di chuySn cua bao, song tdc dO di chuySn cua bao dudng nhu lai chara hem so vdi thuc tS. Han nua, lugng mua du bio ddi vdi ban du bao td 1 den 3 ngay cimg cao hon nhilu so vdi tiiyc tl.
Dinh gia kit qui dy bio lupng raua tich luy 24 gid tai Ha Npi ttong tiiang 1 va thing 7 duge phan tich dya tien gii tri trang binh cua cac sai sd dy bao cda tit ca cic ngay tiong tiing thing (Hmh 6).
Cd thS tiiiy, ttong c i thing 1 v i thing 7, cic gia tii ME, MAE RMSE dlu cd gii tii duang. Dilu niy chiing td ring.
md hinh dy bao lugng mua tiiudng ldn hon so vdi quan ttae. Ket qui ding gia du bao ttong thing I cho thiy, ddi vdi ban 24 v i 48 gid, eic sai sd tiimg bmh thing tai 5 tiara ttSn khu vyc Ha Ngi deu cd gia tri rat nhd (chi dudi 10 mm). Tuy nhiSn, vdi ban dy bao 72 gid, sai sd trang binh ISn tdi 40 mm (Hinh 6).
Sai sd lupng mua tich liiy 24 gid ttong thing 7 dlu cao ban so vdi thing 1. Dieu nay ciing hoin toin hgp ly bdi lupng mua trung binh ttong thing 7 eao ban nhiSu so vdi thing 1. Vdi ban dy bio 24 v i 48 gid, ME va MAE tai cac tiam tiong khu vyc H i Npi chi dao ddng khoing 15 ^ 5mm, sai sd ldn nhit xiy ra tai ttara Ba Vi va nhd nhit t^i tiam Ling. Song sai sd trung binh tai cic tram ttSn khu vuc Iai ISn tdi khoing 70 -H80nun(Hinh'7).
Nhu vay, cd thS thiy, md hinh WRF da dy bao Idii tdt c i nhiet dO v i lugng mua tich liiy 24 gid (ddi vdi han du bao 24 va 48 gid). Ddi vdi ban dy bio 72 gid, md binh du bao vdi sai sd ldn hem, Nhin chung, sai sd dy bao ttong thing 1 thudng nhd han tiong thing 7. KSt qui nky cd the do md binh da dy bio cic he thdng thdi tilt inh hudng din khu vuc cham hem so vdi thuc tl.
4. K i t lu^n
Nghien ciiu dy bio thu nghiem Tsfc v i lugng mua tich liiy 24 gid cho cic tiam tiSn khu vyc Ha Npi tiong thang 1 v i thing 7 bang md hinh WRF, ehung tdi thay rang, vdi han dy bio 24 v i 48 gid, md hinh da dy bao kha tot. KSt qua du bio Tsfc thudng thip hem, cdn lugng mua lai cao ban thuc te. Dilu nay cd the do thdi gian ma cic he thdng thdi tiet inh hudng trye tilp dSn khu vuc thudng cham hern so vdi thue te. Mac du vay, cac sai sd cua rad hinh van nim ttong gidi ban sai sd cho phep nen chimg ta cd thS sd dung md hinh de thd nghiSm cho tit c i cac thing tiong nam nham dua md hinh vio dy b i o ttong nghiep vu.
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Tap chi Khoa hgc Tdi nguyin vd Mdi trudng - Sd 19 - ndm 2018
Nghien curu
ly Z<n_g7/07/2016
ifinft 5: Bdn ddphdn bd lugng mua tich lUy 24gio ngdy 27, 28 vd 29/07/2016 Ong voi hgn du bdo 24, 48 vd 72 gi& (hinh tren) vd sd lifu tdi phdn tich (hinh dudi)
Ba Vi Ha Bong Hoai Dirt Lang Sctii Tay |
Hinh 6: Sai sd lirffng mira tich lUy 24 gi& ddi vdi han dir bdo 24, 48 va 72 gi& tgi Hd Npi trong thang 1
TAI LIEU THAM KHAO [1]. Nguyln Thi Hanh, Vu Thanh Hing, Phan Van Tan (2016/ Du bdo mua hgn miia bdng mo hinh clWRF: Dg nhgy cua cdc sa do tham sd hoa ddi luu. T^p chi Khoa hpc DHQGHN. Tap 32, Sd 2 (2016), p.25-33.
[2]. Chu Thi Thu Hudng (2006). Nghien cieu thu nghiem dw bdo mua lan thdi hgn tie 1 den 3 ngdy cho khu vuc Trung bg Vi^t Nam bdng md htnh WRF. Luan van Thae sT, Trudng Dai hpc Khoa hpc Tu nhien, Dai hpc Qudc gia Ha Npi.
Hinh 7: Sai so luang mira tich lUy 24 gi& v&i han du bdo 24, 48 va 72
gi& tgi Hd Npi trong thdng 7 [3]. Nguyln Thi Thanh (2010). Nghien cieu ddng hda sd lieu ve tinh trong md hinh WRF di du bdo mua l&n a khu vuc Trung Bd. Luan van thae sT, Tradng D^i hpc Khoa hpc Tu nhiSn, Dai hoc Qudc Gia Ha Npi,
[4], Nguyln Tiln Toan (2011), Khd ndng dw bdo mua Ion do khdng khi lanh ket hgp v&i ddi hgi tu nhiet d&i cho khu vt^-c Tnmg Trung Bg bdng mo hinh WRF. Luan van fhac sT, trudng Dai hpc Khoa hpc Tu nhien, Dai hpc Qudc Gia HI Ndi.
BBT nhan bii. 12/01/2018; Phan bien xong: 27/02/2018
Tgp chi Khoa hgc Tai nguyin vd Moi truang -Sd 19 - nam 2018
