XUAN
CANH DAN 2010
Xuat, nhap khau nam 2009 MLTNG VALO
LeThj WlinhThuy Tdng cyc Thdng kd
Ciing nhu hau hgt cac nudc, khimg hoang kinh te da tac ddng chung ddn toan bg nen kinh te nudc ta, trong do cd hoat ddng xuat nhap khau. Theo udc tfnh, kim ngach budn ban hai chieu nam 2009 cua Viet Nam dat 125,4 ty USD, giam 11,9% tirong dd xuit khiu 56,6 ty USD, giam 9,7%, nhap khiu 68,8 ty USD, giam 14,7%, nhap sieu d muc 12,25 ty USD, giam 32,2%) tuong duong 5,8 ty USD so vdi nam 2008.
Bieu do 1. Xuat nhap khau va can doi thirong mai 2007 - 2009
I N h g p k h a u : Nhlipsieu
Trong sd cac chi tidu kinh tg chu ygu, xuat nhap khau chiem 2 trong sd 3 chi tidu cd miic tang tradng am. Tuy nhien, ngoai nhiing "ndi lo", van thay dugc nhiing didm
"dang niimg" ciia hoat ddng xuat nhap khau nam nay.
Vi xuat khau, diem dang mimg thii nhat la: so ydi mdt sd nudc trong khu •vyc, miic giam cua nudc ta thap hon.
Thuang mai toan cau nam 2009 dugc dy bao se giam manh, dac biet ddi vdi khu vyc Ddng Nam A vdn phy thudc kha nhieu vao cac ngn kinh tg bi tac ddng manh cua khimg hoang kinh td nhu My, EU, Nhat Ban. Tinh den hgt thang 10, mire giam xuat khau ciia Philipin la 25,2%, Inddndxia 22,3%, Malaixia 20,7%, Thai Lan 19,6% ya Viet Nam 13,3%. Thii' hai la: tuy kim ngach xuat khau giam nhung lugng cua hau het cac mat hang deu tang. Cau thg gidi giain dan ddn gia ca hang hda giam manh, ndu loai trir yeu td nay, tdng kim ngach xuat khau udc dat 64,2 ty USD, tang 2,3% so vdi nam 2008. Don gia xuat khau giam the hien ro qua 8 mat hang khoang san va ndng san: dau thd -39%, than da : -26%), cao su -32%, ca phd -27%), gao -25%), hat tigu
-24%, hat dieu -13%, che -5%...Ndi each khac, trong khi nhu cau thg gidi giam manh, chi sd lugng xuat khau hang hda van tang chung 6 miic 2,3% cho thay hang Viet Nam van tham nhap tdt vao cac thi tradng, dac biet la miic tang lugng mdt so mat hang: hat didu 7,2%, ca phd 10,2%, che'27,3%0, hat tidu 51,3%, gao 26,7%, than da 29,9%, cao su 10,3%...Hang Det may udc tinh 9 ty USD, giam khdng dang ke so vdi 2008. p i u thd giam 2,4% vd lugng, do dinh hudng giam dan xuat khau trong nhung nam tdi de cung cap cho Nha may loc dau Dung Quit. Ndu khdng ke dau thd, miic giam xuat khau cua Viet Nam nam 2009 se chi la 3,8%). Thily san udc giam 6,7 %> so cimg ky nhung day vln la kgt qua kha quan trong dieu kien hang thiiy san phai ddi mat vdi cac
,36 CON S6&SUKIEN THANG 1+2/2010 - f
bien phap bao hd, hang rao ky thuat, tieu chuan kiem tra ciia cac ddi tac Idn nhu My, EU, Nga, Nhat Ban. Dien tii may tfnh va may mdc thidt bi, dung cu cam tay la hai trong sd 8 mat hang cd kim ngach trdn 2 ty USD, dat miic tang 5,1% va 9,1% so vdi nam trudc - dac biet vao cac thang cudi nam - trong didu kien xuit khiu hang cdng nghigp cua the gidi giam manh. Thir ba la: mire tang trudng duong ciia mdt so thi tradng cho thiy hieu qua cua cac hoat dgng xiic tien thuang mai, md rdng thi tradng d tim vi md cua Chinh phu va su nang ddng cila cac doanh nghiep. Thi tradng xuat Idiiu trong nam 2009 tuy chua cd su thay ddi dang kg vg vi tri - lin lugt la My udc tfnh 11,2 ty USD, giam 5,5%; tigp theo la EU udc tfnh 9,3 ty USD, giam 14,4%; ASEAN udc 8,5 ty
USD, giam 16,4%; Nhat Ban 6,2 ty USD, giam 27,7%, tuy nhign miic tang tradng duong ciia thi tradng Trang Qudc udc 4,8 ty USD va Han Qudc 2,5 ty USD, tang 15% va Chau Phi (gip 8 lin so vdi nam 2008), Trung Ddng cho thay ro dieu dd. Thir tu la: sy tang trudng trd lai ciia xuat khau quy TV cho thay nhilng tin hieu kha quan cua hoat ddng xuat khau nam 2010.
Biiu d6 2. Xuat khSu cac quy nam 2007 - 2009
• N S m 2 0 0 7 I Nam 2003
>Nam 2009
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Sau quy II va III (kd ca quy I ngu loai trir vang) dgu tang tradng am trdn 20% so vdi cac quy cimg ky, xuat khau quy TV da tang 7,1%. Ngoai sy phuc hdi gia va miic tigu thy ciia mot sd mat hang tren thi tradng the gidi, cac chfnh sach hd trg, khuyen khich, dieu hanh xuat khau cua Chinh phu chinh la nhiing tac ddng quan trorig
Ve nhap khau, miic giam 14,7% - cao hon miic giam xuat khau - cho thay diem "dang mimg" dau tidn vi d cac nam trade, nhap khau ludn tang xap xi hoac cao hon xuat khau. Ty trgng tu lieu san xuat van chigm xap xi 91% trong do chii yeu la nguygn nhien vat lieu phuc
•vu san xuat va xuat khau. Tiep theo, ndu nhin vao cac mat hang chu yeu, cd thd thay lugng nhap khau hau het cac mat hang dgu tang trong khi kim ngach giam. Neu loai trir yeu td gia, kim ngach nhap khau udc dat 77,8 ty USD, van giam 3,6% so vdi nam 2008. Nhap khau xang dau giam 3,5% vd lugng, mdt phan do san pham ciia Nha may Igc dau Dung Quat da dugc dua ra thi tradng thay the hang nhap khau, tri gia giam 43,8%o do gia thg gidi giam. Sat thep nhap khau tang manh trong quy III va TV, ca nam tang 13,8% vg lugng, giam 22,9%) vg tri gia. Nhap khau phan bdn tang 41,9%) lugng,
THANG 1+2/2010 CON s6 & SU KIEN " 3? is-
X U A N C A N H D A N 2 0 ! 0
giam 8,4%) tri gia. Mdt diem nii'a la, cd thd nhan thay tac dyng tfch cue cua chfnh sach hd trg lai suat 4% ciia Chinh phu tridn khai dau quy II da
dugc nhigu doanh nghiep sir dyng dung myc tidu khi tang cudng nhap nguydn lieu dy trir vdi gia thap, tang kha nang canh tranh vd gia thanh hang hda, dem lai hieu qua. Tir cudi quy III, kinh td thg gidi cd dau hieu phyc hdi, cimg vdi gia dau thd tang, gia nguyen lieu da tang trd lai. Cudi cimg, xet vd khia canh dau tu ky thuat, ddi mdi cdng nghe, cd thg thay ty trgng nhap khau may mdc thidt bi, dyng cy phy timg tir My, EU da tang Ign 23% so vdi 18%) cua nam 2008, phii hgp vdi dinh hudng cua Chinh phu tang cudng dau tu ky thuat tir cac nudc cd cdng nghe ngudn hien dai, giam dan nhap khau nhdm hang nay tir Trang Qudc va ASEAN.
Tfnh chung vd thi trudng, 8 ddi tac chu yeu, chiem gan 85% tdng kim ngach nhap khau gdm: Trang Qudc tidp tyc la thi tradng Idn nhat, udc tinh 16,1 ty USD, tang 2,7%; ASEAN udc 13,4 ty USD, giam 31,3%; Nhat Ban 7,3 ty USD, giam 11,3%; Han Qudc 6,7 ty USD giam 5,3%; Dai Loan udc 6,2 ty USD, giam 25,9%;
EU udc 5,5 ty USD, tang 2,2%; My 2,8 ty USD, tang 9,1%; Oxtraylia udc 1 ty USD, giam 24%.
Cimg vdi nhilng tfn hieu tdt, kdt qua xuat nhap khau nam 2009 ciing cho thay nhilng didm dang luu y.
Thic nhdt, nhap sidu van d mire cao, neu khdng kd tai xuat vaiig quy I va nhap khau vang thang 11, kim ngach xuit khiu se chi la 54 ty USD giam 14% thay vi 9,7%, nhap khau 68,5 ty USD giam 15,1% va nhap sfgu la 14,5 ty USD (Idn hon mire nhap sidu nam 2007) va chi giam 19,4% thay vi 32,2% so vdi nam 2008, ty Id nhap sieu se la 26,9% thay vi 21,6%
Thic hai, kha nang canh tranh ciia cac doanh nghiep khu •vyc kinh td trong nudc thap hon kha nhidu so vdi khu •vyc cd vdn dau tu trye tidp nudc ngoai. So sanh hai khu •vuc, xuat khau ciia khu •vyc FDI (ke ca diu thd) giam 13,5%o, nhung neu khdng kd dau thd, xuat khiu ciia khu •vyc nay chi giam 2,2%, cho thiy kha nang tidp can thi tradng tdt hon cua khu •vyc nay, hong khi dd, khu •vyc trong nude giam 5,1%, ndu khdng ke tai xuit vang, xuat khau cua khu vyc nay giam tdi 14,5%. Nhap khau khu vyc FDI giam 10,8% ft hon 17% ciia khu vyc trong nudc, tuy nhidn can can thuang mai cua khu vyc FDI ludn xuit sidu, nam 2007 la 6,1 ty USD, nam 2008 la 6,6 ty USD va 2009 la 5 ty USD.
Thie ba, xet^ vd ca cau hang hda, xuat khau van chua thoat khdi tinh trang ty trgng hang thd va gia cdng van chidm chii ygu.
Ve hang nhap khau, tuy nhdm tu lieu san xuat van chiem chu yeu, nhung trong nam 2009, ty trgng hang tigu dung (bao gdm ca tan dugc) da tang Idn muc 8,7%) so vdi 6,4%) ciia nam 2008.
Hang rau qua, thye pham chd bien, giay dep, quan ao, thiet bi dien va dien hi dimg cho gia dinh va ca nhan...
la nhilng nhdm hang tang lien tyc trong nhilng thang gan day. Nhap khau o td nguygn chigc udc 76,3 nghin chide, tang 49,4%) ve lugng va 12,6% vd kim ngach, trong dd 0 td con loai 9 chd ngdi trd xudng udc 43 nghin chiec, vdi tri gia 450 trieu USD, tang 56% ve lugng va 20% vg hi gia do tac ddng ciia chinh sach giam thud VAT va thue trudc ba trong nam 2009.
Thie tu, tinh trang nhap sign cao tir Trung Qudc van chua dugc cai thien. Trong khi nhap sign nam 2009 khoang 12,2 ty USD thi Trang Qudc da la 11,3 ty USD, tang 25,6%) so vdi nam 2007 va chi giam 10,3% so vdi 2008 (so vdi miic chung 32,2%).
Budc sang nam 2010, kinh tg thg gidi phuc hdi se tap nhidu CO hdi cho xuat khau. Tuy nhien vdi viec cac ddi tac Idn dua ra hoac keo dai cac qui dinh bat lgi cho hang Viet Nam nhu EU tidp tyc gia han qui dinh ap thud chdng ban pha gia ddi vdi giay mii da cua Viet Nam thgm 15 thang, hang thuy san xuat khau vao EU phai chiing niinh ngudn gdc danh bat, cac yeu cau ky thuat khac ddi voi san pham gd, rau qua...trong bdi canh chinh sach bao hd mau dich trdn the gidi dang cd xu hudng tang se gay nhieu khd khan cho xuat khau.
Bdn canh do, tinh trang nhap khau hang tidu dimg, dac biet la nhap khau lau, dang cd xu hudng gia tang bat chap sy kidm soat cua cac lye lugng chirc nang. Cac bidn phap han chg nhap khau nhdm hang nay, dac biet thdng qua cac hang rao ky thuat can dugc khan traong thye thi de bao vd ndn san xuat trong nudc. Dg hoan thanh kg hoach xuat nhap khau nam 2010, can tigp tuc thye hien tdt cac giai phap cua Chinh phu ve khuygn khfeh xuat khau, thdng qua dieu haiih ty gia linh hoat, cho phep cac doanh nghiep xuat khau vay bang ngoai te, nham huy ddng trd lai ngudn ngoai te cho vide nhap khau hang hda thiet ygu phyc •vy san xuat, cai tidn vide digu hanh xuat khau mdt sd nhdm nganh hang Idn; cin kidm soat chat che hoat ddng nhap khau; tang cudng sir dung hang hong nudc...
•jj^aS CON SO & SU KIEN THANG 1 + 2/2010
