KHOA HOC CONG NGHE
PHAIXI TICH CAC YEU TO AIVH HUOIXIG DEIM QUYET OflXlH A P DUIXIG CHIEIXI LUOC THiCH U1\1G VOI BIEIM DOI KHi HAU CUA HO IVUOI TOM IXIUDC LQ TAI TIIXIH BEIM TRE
Vd Thai ih$p\ D|ng Tlianh BA\ Nguyen Ngpc Thiir' T6MTAT
Nghien ciru sir dung m6 hinh h6i quy logit nhi thiic d^ phan tich cac yeu td anh huong d^n quy^t dinh ap dung chi^n lut^ thich img voi bi^n doi Idii hau cua ho nuoi torn nuoc lo tai tinh B^n Tre. Sir dung bang cau hoi ban cau tnic, co 262 ho nuoi torn duoc dieu tra bang phuong phap chon mSu ngSu nhien phan t^ng o 3 huyfen ven biln Thanh Phii, Ba Tn va Binh Dai. K6t qua co bon chiln luoe thich ung biln doi khi hau do la dieu chinh lich thdi vu, dieu chinh ky thuat nuoi, da dang hoa san xuat va phong ngiia nil ro. Tuong ung, h6i quy logit nhi thiic cho thay cac yeu t6 co anh huong khac nhau ddi voi viec ap dung tung chiln luoe thich ling ciia ho nuoi torn: cac yeu td ve kinh te - xa hpi, the che, khi hau, moi tiwng va vi tri dia ly. Ngoai ra, hd nudi tdm cdn ddi mat vdi mdt sd rao can thich ling nhu nhan thiic ve tam quan trpng ciia biln doi khi hau cdn han chl, thilu kiln thiic ky thuat ve cac bifen phap thich ung, trinh do van hoa thap, thu nhap thap va tiep can nguon thong tm bien ddi khi hau han che. Do vay, chinh quyen dia phuong va ho nuoi tom can phat huy cac chiln luoc thich img mot each hieu qua hon thong qua cai thien cac ylu td quyet dmh va khde phuc nhiJng rao can thich ling.
Th khda: Bien ddi khih^u, chidn lupc thich ung, nuoi torn nude la.
1.BATVANDE
Bi^n doi khi hau (BDKH) tac dpng true tiep toi cac muc tieu phat tri^n thi^n nien ky va duoc coi la thach thiic lan cho phat trien ben vung (IPCC, 2007).
Nghien cmi ciia World Bank (2010) chi ra rang BDKH tac dpng rat manh den moi truong, kinh te va xa hpi cua Viet Nam va nguoi dan sinh s6ng a vimg ven bi^n la ddi tuong dk bi ton thuong nhat do sdng h-ong vimg dia ly de hi thifen tai. Nganh nuoi torn nuoc la duoc phan bd a khu vuc ven bien nen khong the tranh khoi nhiing tac dong to Ion do BDKH gay ra. Van de d$t ra la nguoi nuoi tom va chinh quyen phai hen hanh dong thai cac hanh dpng thich ling va giam nhe.
Thich ling voi bien doi khi hau la su dieu chinh cCia cac he thdng tu nhien hay xa hoi de ung pho vai cac kich thich do BDKH dang hoac duoc du bao se xay ra hay vcri cac tac dpng cua chiing, de tir do, giam nhe su thiet hai hoac khai thac nhung ca hpi thuan Ipi ma no mang lai (IPCC, 2007). Thich ling co hieu qua la can phai lam cho nhung nguoi dk bi tdn thuong tra nfen kifin cuong hon va co the nhanh chong tra lai trang thai bmh thuong ngay sau mot tac dpng Ion (Adger etal.. 2007). Thich ling voi BDKH
' Nghien ciiu sinh, Khoa Kinh te, Truang Dai hpc Ndng Lam TP. HCM
^ Khoa Kmh ta, Trudng D^i hpc NQng Um TP. HCM
doi hoi nguoi nong dan xac dinh cac chien lupc thich irng hihi ich. M6t sd nguoi nong dan co the di6u chinh va thich ung tot han so voi nhung nguoi khac tiiy thuoc vao nhi&u yeu td nhu bien phap quan ly nong nghidp, quan ly dat dai, dac diem san xuat va dac di^m nhan khau hoc-xa hpi (Mabe etal., 2014).
Ben Tre co duong b a bien dai 65 km tao ra tiem nang phat tnen nuoi trong thuy san rat lan. Trong do, nganh nuoi tom nuoc la co nhieu dong gop quan trpng cho su phat tnen kinh te - xa hpi cua dia phuong voi dien tich nam 2018 khoang 35 nghin ha, san lupng 53.000 tan, diing thir nam ve dien tich va san lugng torn trong nuoc (BSO, 2018). Tuy nhien, cac dia phuong co dien tich nudi torn tap trung (huyen Ba Tri, Binh Dai, Thanh Phii) chiu nhi^u thiet hai nhat do anh huong cua BDKH va nuoc bien dang (Nguy&n Thj Kim Anh va cong su; 2011). Sinh ke nuoi tdm nuoc lo dupe xep hang a muc rui ro trung binh cao do cac ap Iuc thay doi khi hau ciia dia phuong (WWF, 2012) va nang Iuc thich ling cua nguoi nuoi tom a miic trung binh thap (WWF, 2012;
Le Thi Kim Thoa, 2013). Ben canh do, kien thuc v€
cac hanh dong thich ung vai BDKH trong cong dong nguoi nudi torn va chinh quyen dia phuong con han che. Vl vay, viec kham pha nhung chien lupc thich ling va phan tich cac yeu td anh huong d^n quyet dinh ap dung cac chi^n luoc thich ling do la can thiet Tir do, giiip cho cac cac nha hoach dinh chinh sach
NONG NGHIEP VA PHAT TRIEN NONG THON - KY 2 - THANG 9/2020 31
KHOA HOC CONG N G H l va chmh quyen dia phuong co ca so d^ ra bien phap
nang cao kha nang thich img vm BDKH cho hp nudi tom.
2.PHUDNGPHAPNGHBUCUU
2.1. Khu vuc nghien cuu vk thu thap da !l$u B^n Tre la mot h-ong nhiing tinh cua khu vuc ddng bang song Cuu Long, nam trong vimg khi hau nhiet doi gio mua can xich dao voi hai miia mua nang rd ret. Lugng mua hung bmh hang nam tir 2.000 din 2.300 mm voi nhiet dp hung binh hi 26''C - 27°C. Ba huyen ven bien Ba Tri, Binh Dai va Thanh Phii thu^n Igi cho phat trien nuoi trong thiiy san vdi ngh^ nudi tdm nuoc la la huong chu Iuc cua tinh. Dua vao su tu van cua cac can bg Phong Ndng nghiep va Phat trien nong thdn, da chpn trpng diem nghien cuu a cac xa Bao Thanh va Tan XuSn (Ba Tri), An Dien va Giao 'Dignh (Thanh Phii), Dmh Trung vk Thanh Phudc (Binh Dai). Day la cac xa cd dien tich nudi tdm tap trung va dang phai hiing chiu tac ddng ngay cang tang cua BDKH. Thong tm ca ban de phan tich dupe l^y tir du Udu dugc thu thap thdng qua bang cau hoi ban cau tiiic da duoc ki^m tra trudc.
Phuong phap chon mhi dupe phan tang theo dia ban nghien cuu va lua chgn theo hinh thiic ngiu nhien. Quy md hd dieu tra dupe xac dinh theo cdng thiic cua Slovin, 984; trich dan bdi Vd Thi Thanh Ldc, 2010:
N 20865 _ . _ ,, : = 202 (hp).
gia tri tinh theo phan tram, trung binh, sd Idn nhat, sd nho nhat, sai sd chudn de md ta cac chien lupc thich ling, cac yeu td anh huong va cac rao can thich ling.
Phuong phap hoi quy: Md hinh logit nhi thtrc (Binary Logistic Model) dugc su dung nham phan tich cac yeu td anh huong den quyet dinh ap dung chi^n luge thich ling vol BDKH. Md hinh nay gitip loai bo kha nang tuong tac giiia cac quyet dinh lira chgn mdt chiln luge thich ting so vdi chien lupc thich ling khac (Mabe et al., 2014) va phii hgp vdi thuc te la mgt ndng hp co th^ chpn nhieu hon hai chien luge thich ling (Taruvmga etal., 2016; Tesfaye, 2016). Ngoai ra, ky thuat don biln ciing giiip bo qua cac mdi tuong quan tiem tang giiia cac nhilu loan khdng quan sat dugc trong cac chien luoc thich ling (Belderbos et al., 2004). Md hmh logit nhi thiic co dang:Prob(y = l / X ) = e ' / ( l + e ' ) . Md hinh Logit duoc chuyen sang dang tuyin tinh nhu sau:
Ln
^] = A-
Sau khi iroc lugng ham logit nhi thitc, cong thiic do lirong gia tri tac dong bidn tai mirc xac su^t tmng binh cho timg yeu to ddu vao duoc tinh nhu sau:
dP, _dVrob(Y = \)_
3x7" - = P*P*(\-P,)
\Jre''*N 1 + 0 . 0 7 ' * 20865 Trong do: n la so Iuong hg can tien hanh khao sat; N la t6ng so mau; e la sai so cho phep, thuong lay ff miic 5% d^n 10%, nghien ciiu chpn miic sai sd la 7%. Tinh Ben Tre co khoang 20.865 ho nuoi torn nuoc Iff (BSO, 2017), cho nen so ho can diiu tra la 202 h6.
Tuy nhien, de tang dp chinh xac n^n sd ho dieu tra dupe lua chpn la 262 hd. Dieu tra ndng hd duoc tien hinh vao thing 10/2018.
2.2. Phuong phip phta tich sd liju
Phuong phap thong ke mo ta: Cac sd lieu thu thjp duoc tien hanh tdng hpp va phan tich thanh cac
Ring 1. Thdng kfe md ta, di§n giai cic hiin sil dung trong c ^ md hinh logt nhj ttiiic
3 ^ . _ Y<n:P,=e' l{\ + e')N?L: Z = P„+P,X,
Trong dp: Pi la he sd hdi quy cua bien ddc lap X^;
X^ la gid tri trung binh cua Xi4
Bien phu thupc cho md hinh la cac chidn lupc thich ling duoc Ira Idi bdi ngudi phong van va cac bie'n ddc lap duoc lua chpn dua tren kinh nghiem, cac nghien cuu trudc day va tinh sdn cd cua dir li^u.
Thdng kd md ta, dien giai cac bien phu thuoc va dpc lap dupc sii dung trpng md hinh dupe trinh bay trong bang 1.
Tdn bidn Didn giai
Bign phu thudc l.CLDCLTV 2.CLDCKT
Chien lupc dieu chinh Uch thdi vu - 1 neu hd ap dung; - 0 neu hp khdng ap dung Chien lupc dieu chinh ky thuat =• 1 neu hd ap dung; - 0 ndu hd khdng ap dung
N Mini mum 262
Maxi mum Mean
0,62 Std.
Deviation
N 6 N G NGHIEP VA PHAT TRIEN NONG THON - KY 2 - THANG 9/2020
KHOA HOC CdNG N G H £
3.CLDDHSX
4.CLPNRR
Chien luoc da dang hda san xuat = 1 neu hd ap dung; = 0 neu hd khong ap dung Chidn lupc phdng ngira rui ro bien dpi khi hau = 1 neu hd ap dung; = 0 neu hd khdng apdung
Bi^ndOclHp
l . M H
2.GT 3. TUOI 4.TDVH 5.QMH 6.KNG 7.LD 8.TN 9. DTP 10. KN
11. DT 12. TD 13. DIEN 14. KC 15. TP 16. BD 17. TT 18. NAM 19.
AHBDKH
20. CNN
Md hinh nudi tdm = 1 neu hd ap dung nudi tdm the chan tring tham canh, = 0 neu hp ap dung nudi tdm sii quang canh cai tien
Giffi tinh ciia chu hd = l l a nam va - 0 la no Tuoi chu hd duoc tinh bang nam Trinh do hpc van duoc do bang sd nam ddn tnidng cua chu hd
Quy md hd la sd thanh vien trong hd gia dinh
Kinh nghidm nudi tdm la sd nam da tham gia nudi tdm cua chii hd
Lao ddng la sd ngudi lap dpng san xuat trpng hd
Thu nhap trung binh cua hd tir tat ca cac ngudn tinh bang trieu ddng/nam Dien tich dat nudi tdm duoc tinh bang ha Tham gia tap huan khuyen ndng ve nudi tdm neu = l l a cd tham gia va =0 la khdng tham gia
Tham gia cac td chitc doan the =1 neu cd tham gia va = 0 la khdng tham gia Tidp can vdi tin dung =1 ndu hd tiep can dd dang va = 0 la khd khan Tiep can can dien =1 ndu hd tidp can thuan Iffi va = 0 la khac
Khoang each tir nha den trung tam huyen duoc tinh bang km
Huyen Thanh Phii - 1 neu la huyen Thanh Phu va = 0 la huyen khac Huyen Binh Dai - 1 neu la huyen BINH DAI va = 0 la huvdn khac
Sd lupng ngudn thdng tin tiep can ve BDKH
Sd nam nhan biet thdi thiet thay ddi that thudng
Nhan thuc anh huong cua BDKH den nudi tdm =1 neu cd anh huong va - 0 la khdng anh hudng
0 nhidm ngudn nude -1 ndu ngudn nuoc nudi tdm bi d nhidm va - 0 la khdng bi d nhidm
262 262
262
262 262 262 262 262 262 262 262 262
262 262 262 262 262 262 262 262
262
262 0 0
0
0 25 0 2 1 1 10 0,1 0
0 0 0 3 0 0 0 1
0
0 1 1
1
1 84 16 10 30 6 800
5 1
1 1 1 30 1 1 6 22
1
1 0,53 0,89
0,650
0,740 50,44 7,09 4,63 12,45 1,45 127,17
0,885 0,69
0,52 0,47 0,66 12,32 0,39 0,26 1,79 4,94
0,87
0,77 0,498 0,310
0,478
0,439 11,41 3,152 1,383 6,38 0,68 120,71 0,9397 0,463
0,501 0,500 0,473 2,976 0,489 0,437 1,189 3,055
0,332
0,421
NONG NGHIEP VA PHAT TRIEN NONG THON - KY 2 - THANG 9/2020 33
KHOA HOC C 6 N G NGHfi
3. KET QUA niBHBtt CUU VA THAO LUAN
3.1. Chi^n luge thich u o g vdi bi^n ddi khi h^u T h o n g q u a tong h o p tai li$u, p h o n g van 17 can bg p h u trach n o n g nghiep o c a p h u y e n / x a va p h o n g van sau 12 h 6 co nhi^u k m h n g h i e m nuoi t6m, da k h a m p h a ra 15 bien phap chu y^u thich ling vm BDKH. V e b a n chat, m g t h g nuoi torn co t h e thuc hien nhi^u bi$n phap thich ling ciing liic. Cac bifen phap tiiich ling co ciing tinh chat dugc tap h a p thanh m o t chien luge thich ling (Bryan, etal., 2013; Amare, et al., 2018), tdng h g p co b d n chien luge thich ling:
(1) Chien luge dieu chinh lich thoi vu bao g o m cac bi^n phap n h u dieu c h i n h thoi diem tha gidng va thoi di^m thu hoach; (2) Chien luoc di^u chinh k y thuat b a o g o m cac bien phap n h u thay ddi gidng nuoi, thay ddi m a t do nudi, s u d u n g t h u d c / h o a c h a t / c h ^ p h a m sinh h g c / v 6 i , xay d u n g ao lang loc, di^u chinh tan su^t thay nude, tang c u o n g s u d u n g may m o c thiet hi va thay ddi each cho an; (3) Chien luge da dang h d a san xu^t bao g d m cac bien phap n h u nuoi torn k e t h g p vdi thiiy san khac, lam th&m n g h e phi nong nghidp va chuyen ddi tir nuoi tdm sang cay t r d n g / v a t nuoi khac; (4) Chien luge p h d n g ngira nii ro bao g d m cac bi^n phap n h u tang c u d n g theo doi cac tin tiic d u b a o vd thien tai, ciing cd dam bao an toan tai san cho ao nudi va m u a bao hiem tom.
Di^u chinh tich Dieu chinh ky Da dang hoa sa thaivu Ihual xuat
Phong ngira nil
Hinh 1. T^ 1§ hd nudi t d m dp di;ing chi^n luge thich ung vdi bi^n ddi khi hau ^ K^t q u a dieu tra 262 h g c h o thay chidn luoe p h d n g ngira rui ro do BDKH dupe nguoi nudi tom ap d u n g nhieu nhat, chidm 89.31% ti-ong tdng sd h g didu tra (Hinh 1). Dieu nay chiing td ngudi nudi tdm ngay
Ngudn: Ket qua khao sat. nSm 2018 cang cd y thiic h a n trong vi^c p h d n g tranh nhiing tac d d n g tieu c u e c u a BDKH. Kd den la chien luoe didu chinh ky thuat chidm 80,53% trong tdng sd hg didu tra (Hinh 1), d a y ciing la chien luge cd nhieu bien phap nhat dugc ap d u n g n h a m h a n chd va k h a c phuc nhiing tac ddng bat lai cua thdi tidt. Tidp theo, chien luge dieu chinh lich thdd vu c u n g dugc nhidu h g ap d u n g chiem ty le 62,21% va cudi cimg la chidn luge da d a n g h d a san xuat chidm ty Id 53,44% t r o n g tdng sd hg didu h-a (Hinh 1).
3.2. Phan tich cAc ydu td dnh hudng ddn quy^t dinh ap dyng chidn luge thich ling vdi bidn ddi khi h^u ciia hd nudi tern
Dd loai bd k h a n a n g tuong tac giiia cac quyet dinh tiiich ling cua h g nudi torn, bdn m o hinh hdi quy logit nhi thiic k h a c n h a u da dugc thuc hidn cho mdi chien luge thich irng. Ph^n m d m SPSS (phien ban 20.0) duge sir d u n g dd udc lugng cac t h a m sd hdi quy. Ket qua kiem dinh gia thiet vd miie d6 phii h g p cua cac mo hinh tdng quat ddu cd miic y nghia <
0,05, cho thay cd tuong quan giiia bidn p h u thuoc va cac bien doc lap vdi k h o a n g tin cay tren 95%. Dd chinh x a c k e t q u a d u bao ciia ca 4 m o hinh deu rat cao, tren 80%. Ve kidm d m h - 2LL c h o thay, cac md hinh cd chi sd tuong doi d miie thap, chiing td miic do phii h g p k h a tdt ciia m o hinh tdng thd. H e sd Nagelkerke R^ thu dugc c h o 4 md hinh lan lugt la 0.422; 0,798; 0,696; 0,411 c h o thay r a n g cac bidn doc lap da giai thich dugc c h o cac m o hinh vdi ty le tuong u n g la 42,2%; 79,8%; 69,6%; 41,1%. H e sd u d e lugng va hd sd tac d6ng biSn cua cac bidn dpc lap len bidn p h u thudc dugc the hien tuong u n g d b a n g 2 va b a n g 3.
3.2.1. Md hmh 1: Chien luac dieu chinh hch thdi vu (CWCLTV)
T r o n g md hinh 1, 8 bidn dugc tim thay cd y nghia thdng k e anh h u d n g ddn quyet dinh ap d u n g C L D C L T V ( B a n g 2 ) .
Md hinh nudi tdm, cd y nghia thdng k e d m u c 1%
va dau duong. H§ sd tac d g n g bidn (dy/dx) la 0.4406 cho thay h g nudi tom t h e chan trang t h a m canh cd kha nang ap d u n g CLDCLTV eao h a n 44,06% s o vdi hg nudi tom sii quang canh cai tidn. Ngudi nuoi tdm tham canh luon cd g a n g can c u theo khuydn c a o ciia can bd khuydn ndng, theo Uch thdi vu duge c d n g bd hay kinh nghidm ban than d e dieu chinh hch thdi vu.
34 NONG NGHIEP VA PHAT TRIEN NONG THON - KS 2 - THANG 9/2020
KHOA HOC C O N O N G H E
Bidn ddc lap
1. MH (md hinh nudi) 2. GT (gioi tinh) 3.TU0I(tudi)
4. TDVH (trinh dd van hda) 5. QMH (quy md hd) 6. KNG (kinh nghiem) 7. LD flao ddng) 8. TN (thu nhap) 9. DTT (dien tich nudi tdm) 10. KN (tham gia khuydn ndng)
11. DT (tham gia dpan the) 12. TT (thdng tin BDKH) 13. TD (tiep can tin dung) 14. DIEN (tiep can dien) 15. KC (khoang each) 16. TP (huyen Thanh Phii) 17. BD (huyen Binh Dai) 18. NAM (sd nam nhan biet thoi adt thay ddi) 19. AHBDKH (nhan thirc anh hirdng BDKH den nudi tdm)
20. ONN (d nhidm ngudn nude)
tuntinoi Md hmh 1 Dieu chinh lich thdi vu He sd
2,033 0,113 -0,009 0,206 -0,081 0,079 -0,018 0,001 -0,513 -0,576 0,918 0,259 0,471 -0,282 -0,135 -0,305 -0,989 0,108
-0,444
0,048 -0,626
P Value O.OOO""
0,774 0,561 O.OOO""
0,497 0,018"
0,938 0,555 0,017"
0,113 0,018"
0,129 0,169 0,439 0,027"
0,522 0,049"
0,067"
0,419
0,911 0,690
quy bmar logicus c M d h i n h 2 Didu chinh
ky thuat Hesd
4,286 -0,965 -0,079 0,245 -0,009 -0,033 0,157 0,013 0,190 1,944 0,056 0,195 2,349 1,812 0,100 0,452 2,608 -0,037
2,579
1,601 -6,959
p Value 0,000""
0,220 0,036"
0,046"
0,968 0,577 0,739 0,069"
0,645 0,007""
0,943 0,624 0,004""
0,022"
0,383 0,699 0,036"
0,731
0,002""
0,045"
0,025""
10 ttmgc Lien lupc • M p h i n h 3 Da dang hda
san xuat Hd sd
-5,498 -2,084 -0,020 0,021 -0,028 0,026 0,971 0,000 -1,200 0,147 -0,078 0,505 0,224 -0,424 -0,180 -0,172 -0,903 0,028
2,040
2,464 4,058
P Value 0,000""
0,001""
0,380 0,761 0,857 0,565 0,005""
0,911 0,002""
0,758 0,868 0,009""
0,610 0,331 0,019"
0,756 0,145 0,686
0,000""
0,000""
0,049""
uch ling Md hinh 4 Phdng ngira
nii rp Hdsd
0,862 -0,255 0,077 0,032 -0,583 -0,084 0,057 0,008 0,197 2,098 -0,092 0,994 0,221 0,456 -0,063 1,373 0,254
•0,049
0,525
0,266
•2,318 P Value
0,189 0,696 0,005""
0,728 0,002""
0,128 0,871 0,029""
0,488 0,000""
0,878 0,004""
0,680 0,402 0,437 0,078"
0,740 0,555
0,454
0,663 0,311
Ghichii: ***Cdynghia thdngkddl%;
Ngudn: Ket qua khao sat, nam 2018
* Coy nghia thdng ke d59S; * Coy nghia thdng ke a 10%
Trinh dd van hoa cua chu hd ciing cd y nghia thdng kfe d muc 1% va dau duong, cho bidt tuong quan tiiuan giua trinh do van hda va kha nang ap dung CIDCLTV. Gia hi tae dgng bien 0,0446 ndi len rang khi chu hg tang them 1 nam ddn trudng thi kha nang ap dung CIDCLTV tang tiiem 4,46%, khi cac ydu td khac khdng ddi.
Kinh nghiem nudi tdm, vdi miic y nghia thdng kd 5% va ddng bien vdi CLDCLTV. Hg nudi tom eang cd tham nidn, kha nang quan sat thay ddi thdi tidt se
tdt han dd biet liic nao can tha gidng hay thu hoach.
Khi kinh nghiem nudi tdm eua chii hd tang them 1 nam thi kha nang ap dung CLDCLTV tang them 1,71% vdi dieu kien cac yeu td khac khong ddi.
Dien tich nudi tdm, vdi miie y nghia thdng ke 5%
nhung cd mdi tuong quan nghich vdi kha nang ap dung CLDCLTV. Bdi vi da sd cac hd cd dien tich Idn dugc nudi theo hinh thiic quang canh vdi lugng eon gidng tha it, vdn dau tu it ndu gap rui ro tiidi tidt thi thiet hai khdng cao cho nen hg chua quan tam nhieu ddn didu chinh lich thdi vu. He sd tac ddng bien la - NONG NGHIEP VA PHAT TRIEN NONG THON - KV 2 - THANG 9/2020 35
KHOA HOC C6Ne NOHt 0,1112 cho biet khi dien hch nudi tdm tang thdm 1 ha
kha nang ap dung CLDCLTV giam di 11,12% vdi dieu kien cac yeu td khac khdng ddi.
Tham gia cac td chiic doan thS, vdi miic y nghia thdng ke 5% va cd mdi hrong quan thuan vdi CLDCLTV. Gia tri tac dpng bien la 0,199 chp bidt hp
nudi tdm cd tham gia dpan the thi kha nang ap duag CLDCLTV cao ban hd khdng thani gia ''°™ ™ '*
19,9%. Tidp can vdi doan the tao didu kien dd hp thu thap dupc nhidu thong tin ve thdi tidt, hoc hoi kinh nghidm ISn nhau de cd ke hoach dieu chinh thdi vn san xuat hop ly.
Bien ddc lap 1. MH (md hinh nudi) 2. GT (gim tinh) 3. TUOI (hidi) 4. TDVH (trinh dd van hda) 5. QMH (quy md hd) 6. KNG (kinh nghiem) 7. LD (lao ddng) 8. TN (thu nhap) 9. DTT (dien tich nudi tdm) 10. KN (tham gia khuyen ndng) 11. DT (tham gia doan the) 12. T P (thdng hn BDKH) 13. TD (tiep can tin dung) 14. DIEN (adp can dien) 15. KC (khoang each) 16. TP (huyen TTianh Phu) 17. BD (huyen Binh Dai)
18. NAM (sd nam nhan biet thdi tiet thay ddi)
19. AHBDKH (nhan thiic anh hudng BDKH ddn nudi tdm)
20. ONN (d nhidm ngudn nude)
Mo hinh 1 Dieu chinh Uch thdi vu dy/dx 0,4406 0,0245 -0,0020 0,0446 -0,0176 0,0171 -0,0039 0,0002 -0,1112 -0,1248 0,1990 0,0561 0,1021 -0,0611
•0,0293 -0,0661 -0,2143 0,0234 -0,0962 0,0104
Md hinh 2 Dieu chinh dy/dx 0,0865 -0,0195 -0,0016 0.0049 -0,0002 -0,0007 0,0032 0,0003 0,0038 0,0392 0,0011 0,0039 0,0474 0,0366 0,0020 0,0091 0,0526 -0,0007 0,0521 0,0323
Mo hinh 3 Da dang hda
san xuat dy/dx -0,2176 -0,4615 -0,0044 0,0047 -0,0062 0,0058 0,2150 0,0000 -0,2657 0,0326 -0,0173 0,1118 0,0496 -0,0939 -0,0399 -0,0381 -0,2000 0,0062 0,4518 0,5457
Mdhinh4 Phdng ngira
ruiro dy/dx 0,0240 -0,0071 0,0021 0,0009
•0,0162 -0,0023 0,0016 0,0002 0,0055 0,0585 -0,0026 0,0277 0,0062 0,0127 -0,0018 0.0383 0,0071 -0,0014 0,0146 0,0074
Khoang each hinha den trung tam huyen, vdi y nghia d miic 596 va mang dau am. Hd nudi tdm d xa trung tam huyen cd didu kien san xuat khd khan hon, cap nhat thdng tin didi het khi hau chua kip thdi, do dd kha nang ap dung CLDCLTV thap. Khi khoang each tit nha den ming tam huydn tang them 1 km thi kha nang ap dung CLDCLTV giam di 2,93%
vol dieu kidn cac yeu td khac khdng ddi.
Huyen Binh Bai, vdi miic y nghia thdng kd 5% va cd dau am. Gia hi tac ddng bien la -0,2143, didu nay chp biet hd nupi tdm a Binh Dai kha nang ap dung
Nguon: Ket qua khao sat, nSm 2018 CLDCLTV thap hon 21,43% so vdi hp d cac huydn Ba Tri hay Thanh Phii.
Sdnim ngiroi nuoi torn nhan biet thai tiet thay ddi that thudng, cd y nghia thdng ke b miic 10% va ddng bien vdi CLDCLTV. Qua nhidu nam quan sat thdi tidt. hp cd the dieu chinh thdi diem tha gidng va thu hoach mdt each hpp ly. Gia tn tac ddng bidn la 0,0234 cho bidt h-ong khi cac yeu id khac khdng thay ddi, sd nam ngudi nudi tdm nhan biet ihdi tidt thay ddi thit thudng tang them 1 nam thi kha nang ip dung CLDCLTV tang them 2,34%.
36 NONG NGHIEP VA PHAT TRIEN NONG THON - KY 2 - THANG 9/2020
KHOA HOC C6NG N G H I
3.2.2. Md hinh 2: Chidn lu^ dieu chinh ky thuat (CIDCKI)
Trong md hinh 2, cd 10 bidn dugc tim thay cd y nghia thdng ke anh hudng den quydt dinh ap dung chidn luoc dieu chinh ky thuat (Bang 2).
Md hinh nudi tdm cd y nghia thdng ke d miic 1%
va dau duong. Gia tri tac dgng bifen la 0,0865. Didu nay cho bidt hd nudi tdm the chan trang tham canh thi kha nang ap dung CLDCKT eao hon 8,65% so vdi hp nu6i tdm sii quang canh cai tien. Nudi tham canh vdi didn tich nhd, mat dd cao ddi hdi ngudi nudi phai kidm soat tdt dd man, nhiet do, oxy... trong ao nuoi, chlng ban nhu chay quat khi nhiet do cao, xii ly bang v6i hay giam lugng thiic an khi mua qua nhidu.
Trong khi do, nuoi quang canh cai tien vdi difen tich ao nudi r6ng n6n khd ap dung cac bien phap didu chinh ky thuat hon.
Tuoi cua chu hg cd anh hudng nghich bidn vdi CIDCKT vdi muc y nghia thdng ke 5%. Chii hd cang Idn tuoi thi kha nang ap dung chien luge dieu chinh ky thuat cang thap. Chii hd Idn tuoi da sd ed trinh dp van hda thtip va cd tam ly ngai tiep XLIC vdi cai mdi.
Hon niia, hd sd tac ddng bien -0,0016 cho bidt khi tudi chu hg tang thSm 1 nam thi kha nang ap dung CIDCKT giam di 0,16%, vdi didu kidn cac ydu td khdng ddi.
Trinh do van hda cua chii hd cd anh hudng ddng bidn d miic y nghia thdng ke 5%. Trinh do van hda cao giiip chu hg tiep thu va ap dung kj' thuat san xuat nhanh chdng hon. Tir do, viec dieu chinh nhiet do, dp man, dd trong, lugng thudc va thiic an didn ra dd dang hon. Vdi didu kidn ydu td khac khong ddi, tudi chu hd tang them 1 nam thi kha nang ap dung CLDCKT tang 0,49% (dy/dx = 0,0049).
Thu nhap hd nudi tdm, cd y nghia thdng ke d muc 10% va mang dau duong. Thu nhap cao la didu kidn quan ti*gng de hd dau tu may mdc thidt hi, mua thudc/hda chat de phdng ngira, khac phuc tinh trang dich bdnh, thdi tiet tiiay ddi that thudng mot each kip thdi. Gia hi tac ddng bien la 0,0003, khi thu nhap hg tang thdm 1 trieu ddng thi kha nang ap dung CIDCKT tang 0,03%.
Tidp can tin dunged y nghia thdng ke d miie eao la 1% va ddng bien vdi CLDCKT. Gia til tac dgng bien la 0,0474 cho biet khi hg tiep can tin dung dd dang thi kha nang ap dung CLDCKT cao hon 4,74% so vdi hg tidp can tin dung khdng dd dang. Ngudn vdn tu cd
cua hg nuoi tom ban chd, vi vay vay vdn la can thidt dd tao didu kidn tang cudng ap dung cac bien phap ky thuat.
Tham gia khuydn ndng cd anh hudng ddng bidn vdi CLDCKT d miic y nghia thdng ke 1%. Hg cd tham gia tap huan khuyen nong thi kha nang ap dung CLDCKT eao han hg khdng tham gia la 3,92% (dy/dx
= 0,0392). Khuyen ndng la mgt kenh quan trgng dd long ghep cac ky thuat nu6i tdm thich ung bien ddi khi hau.
Tiep can dien. vdi y nghia thdng ke d miic 5% va dau duong. Dien la nang lugng quan trgng de van hanh he thdng may mdc, ndu ngudn dien khdng on dinh se tac dgng tifiu cue den moi trudng ao nuoi.
Gia tri tac dgng bien la 0,0366 ndi I6n rang khi hg tidp can didn dd dang thi kha nang ap dung CIDCKT eao hon 3,66% so vdi hg tidp can didn khd khan.
Huyen Binh Bai, cd y nghia thdng ke d miic 5%
va mang dau duong. Binh Dai la huydn dau ti6n dua torn nude Ig vao nudi, kinh nghiem va ky thuat san xuat cua hg cao hon. Hp nuoi tom d huyen Binh Dai cd kha nang ap dung CLDCKT cao hon 5,26% (dy/dx
= 0,0526) so vdi huyen Ba Tri va Thanh Phii.
Nhan thiic bien ddi khi hau anh hudng ddn nudi tdm, vdi y nghia thdng ke d miic 1% tuong quan thuan vdi CLDCKT. Han niia, he sd tac ddng bien la 0,0521 cho biet khi hp nhan thiic bidn ddi khi hau cd anh hudng den nuoi tdm thi kha nang ap dung CLDCKT eao hon 5,21% so vdi hg khfing nhan thiic duge dieu nay.
O nhidm ngudn nude, vdi miic y nghia la 5% va mang dau duong. Gia tn tac dpng bien la 0,0323 ndi len rang khi hg nhan thay ngudn nude hi d nhidm thi kha ap dung CLDCKT cao hon 3,23% so vdi hd khong nhan thay ngudn nude d nhidm. Khoang 77%
cac hd trong khu vuc nghien eiru cho rang ngudn nude dang d nhidm (Bang 1), vi thd ho phai thudng xuyen xu ly bang hda chat/vdi, thay nude, xay dung ao lang Igc nham cai thien chat lugng nude.
3.2.3. Md hinh 3: Chien luge da dang hda san xuat (CIBDHSX)
Trong md hmh 3, ket qua udc lugng cho thay cd 8 bidn anh hudng cd y nghia thdng ke den quyet dinh ap dung CLDDHSX (Bang 2).
Md hinh nudi tdm cd y nghia thdng ke d mirc cao (1%) va mang dau am. Gia tin tac ddng bien la -
N 6 N G NGHIEP VA PHAT TRIEN N O N G THON - KY 2 - THANG 9/2020
37
KHOA HOC CONG N G H £ 0,2176, dieu nay cd nghia la hg nudi tham canh kha
nang ap dung CLDDHSX th^p hon 21,76% so vdi ho nudi quang canh. Hg nudi tham canh khd da dang hda san xuat do dien tich ao nhd, khdng tiie nudi xen vdi cac loai fliuy san khac ddng tiidi hg phai danh hau hdt tiidi gian de cham sdc tdm. Ngugc lai, hd nudi quang canh cd didn tich ao rong, it dau hi may mdc va thdi gian cham sdc n6n hg thuan loi ban trong vide da dang hda cac hoat ddng san xuat nham tang them thu nhap nhu la mdt each thich ling.
Gidi tinh chii ho, vdi y nghia thdng ke d muc 1%
va nghich bien vdi CLDDHSX. Chu hd la nam cd kha nang ap dung CLDDHSX thap hon 46,15% so vdi chu hg la nu (dy/dx-0,4615). Ndi each khac, chu hg la nu tiiich ap dung CLDDHSX hon chu hd la nam.
Lao ddng, cd y nghia thdng ke d muc 1% va tuong quan thuan vdi CLDDHSX. Lao ddng ddi dao giup hg cd the phan bd Iuc lugng vao nhieu edng viec khac (nudi trong them thuy san khac, lam thue hay budn ban nhd) de tang them thu nhap. Gia tri tac dgng biSn 0,215 cho thay khi lao dgng trong hd tang them 1 ngudi thi kha nang ap dung CLDDHSX tang them 21,5%, vdi dieu kien cac ydu td khdng ddi.
Didn tich dat nudi tdm, ed y nghia thdng ke d miic 1% nhung mang dau am cho thay dien tich dat nudi tdm cd tac ddng nghich ddn kha nang ap dung CLDDHSX. Cu the, didn tich dat nudi tdm tang them Iha thi kha nang ap dung CLDDHSX giam 26,57%, vdi dieu kien cac ydu td khong ddi. Tuy nhidn, mdt sd nghien ciiu khac ket luan ndu nong hg cd nhidu dien tich dat ndng nghiep thi hg lai cd khuynh hudng da dang hda cay trdng, vat nudi hon (Bryan et al., 2011; Amare e?a/, 2018).
Sd lugng ngudn thong tin ve BDJUI ma hg tidp can anh hudng ddng bien ddn CLDDHSX vdi y nghia thdng ke d muc 1%. Qua hep xuc vdi nhieu ngudn thdng tin ve BDKH, giiip hd chu dpng ling phd vdi thdi tidt that thudng va tim each cai thien thu nhap.
Gia tri tac ddng bien 0,1118 cho bidt hd tiep can them 1 ngudn thdng tin vd BDKH thi kha nang ap dung CIDDHSX tang tiiem 11,18%. vdi didu kien cac yeu td khong ddi.
Khoang each, cd y nghia thdng ke d muc 5% va mang dau am, nghia la khoang each tir nha den trung tam huyen va kha nang ap dung CIDDHSX la tuong quan nghich. Gia tri tac ddng bien la -0,0399 ndi len rang khi khoang each tir nha ddn hnng tam huyen
tang tiiem 1 km tiii kha nang ap dung CLDDHSX giam 3,99%. Ndng hg cang d x a trung tam thi viec c^p nhat tiidng tin vd flidi tidt, tiii trudng heu tiiu, ky tiiuat san xuat, chuydn doi cay trdng vat nuoi . . . cang han che.
Nhan thuc BDKH anh hudng den nudi tdm ddng bien vdi CLDDHSX vdi y nghia tiidng ke 1%. Nhiing hg cd nhan tiuic BDKH anh hudng den cdng vi^
nudi tom cua hg thi kha nang ap dung CLDDHSX cao hon 45,18% (dy/dx=0,4518) so vdi hd khdng nhan thiie duoe dieu nay.
O nhiSm ngudn nude, vdi y nghia thdng kd 5% va mang d^u duong. Ndu hg danh gia ngudn nude nuoi tom hi d nhidm thi kha nang ap dung CIDDHSX cao ban 54,57% (dy/dx=0,5457) so vdi hd danh gid nguon nude khdng 6 nhidm.
3.2.4. Md hinh 4: Chidn luge phong ngda rui w (CLPNm
Ket qua ude lugng d md hinh 4, cd 6 bidn dugc tim thay anh hudng cd y nghia thdng ke ddn quy^t dmh ap dung CLPNRR (Bang 2).
Tudi cua chu hd anh hudng ddng bidn voi CLPNRR va cd y nghia tiidng ke 1%. Vdi gia hi \k.
ddng bien 0,0021 cho biet tudi chu hg tang them 1 nam till kha nang ap dung CLPNRR tang tiidm 0,21%
trong dieu kien cac yeu td khac khdng doi. Dd la vi ngudi Idn tudi thudng cd tam ly lo xa va thudng de phdng nhOng nii ro bat trae so vdi ngudi tre.
Quymd hd, cd y nghia thdng ke 1% va mang dau am, nghia la sd Iuong thanh vien trong gia dinh tac dgng nghich den kha ap dung CLPNRR Khi so thanh vidn frong hg gia dinh tang them 1 nguoi thi kha nang ap dung CLPNRR giam di 1,62% (dy/dx- 0,0162). Ngudi ta thudng ky vong rang quy md ho Idn, lao ddng nhidu ban thi thuan loi ban de ap dung cae bien phap phdng ngira riii ro. Tuy nhien, da sd hp nuoi tdm cd quy mo hd Idn thudng cd thu nhap th^p, cd it thdi gian dd quan tam thdng tin thdi tidt, c6 it vdn de dau tu vao cac bien phap thich ihig.
Thu nhap cd tac ddng ddng bidn vdi CLPNRR vdi miic y nghia thdng ke 5%. Thu nhap la ngudn tai chinh can thidt dd hd thuc hidn cac bidn phap thich ling, chang ban nhu ciing c6 an toan tai san hay mua bao hiem. Khi thu nhap nong ho tang them 1 tri^u ddng thi kha nang ap dung CLPNRR latig them 0,02%
(dy/dx=0,0002), vdi didu kidn cac yeu to khac khong ddi.
38 NONG NGHIEP VA PHAT TRIEN NONG THON - KY 2 - THANG 9/2020
KHOA HOC CONG NGHE
Tham gia khuydn ndng, vdi y nghia thdng ke 5%
va tac dgng Ihuan ddn kha nang ap dung CLPNRR Thdng qua cac Idp tap huan khuyen ndng, ngudi nudi torn duge tidp can vdi cac kien thiic vd phdng ngira nii ro nhidu hon, tir do cd the ap dung vao hoat ddng san xuat Gia tri tac dgng bidn la 0,0585 cho thay kha nang ap dung CLPNRR eua hd ed tham gia khuyen n6ng cao hon 5,58% so vdi hg khdng cd tham gia khuydn n6ng.
Sd ngudn thdng tin ve bien ddi khi hau anh hudng ddng bidn vdi CLPNRR va cd y nghia thdng ke d miic 1%. Cac ngudn thdng tin dugc hep can phd bidn nhu tivi, radio, internet, can bd khuyen nong, ngudi quen, hang xdm. Khi ndng hd tiep can them 1 ngudn thdng tin vd BDKH thi kha nang hd ap dung CLPNRR tang them 2,77% (dy/dx=0,0277) vdi dieu kien cac yeu td khac khdng ddi.
Huyen Thanh Pha la dia phuong cd kha nang ap dung chidn luge phdng ngira rui ro cao hon so vdi cac huydn cdn lai vdi miic y nghia 10%. Do Thanh Phii trudc day la huyen ngheo, didu kidn tu nhien khd khan nen hg luon cd tam ly de phdng rui ro trudc su thay ddi that thudng cua thdi tidt, khi hau.
Hon nua, hd sd tac dfing bidn la 0,0383 cho bidt khi ho d huydn Thanh Phu thi kha nang ap dung CLPNRR cao han 3,83% so vdi huyen Ba Tri va Binh Dai.
3.3. RAo can thich ung vdi bidn ddi khi h|lu cua h$ nudi tdm
Haoche nhjniliirc velsin
Tliini Trinh do Tte nhap Tiep can Thoi Thi Lire Ticpcan Di^nifch idcnihiic i^hdo Ihap Ihonglin qyen,i|ip IniJng l ^ g l a o lindung datdai I
kj^ihujl ihip vcBDKH i\m%w d^ura % i i l i i o M ihap I vccjc hanclif vii\ khokhan
b];n ph jp ihkhdi^
BDKH
Hinh 2. Ty Id hO nudi tdm gap rao can thich ling vdi bidn ddi khi h$u(%)
Cac chien luoc thich ung BDKH duoc ap dung bdi hd nuoi tom khong didn ra mgt each dd dang ma ed thd gap phai mgt sd rao can nhat dinh. Rao can thich ling duge dinh nghia la cac yeu td, didu kien hoac trd ngai ma lam giam hieu qua cae chidn luge thich ling eua nong dan (Antwi-Agyei et al., 2013).
Trong nghien eiiu nay, hg nuoi tom duge yeu cau cho bidt cac ydu td rao can ma hg gap phai khi ap dung cae chien luge thich ling vdi BDKH. Kdt qua chi ra rang cd 10 rao can chii ydu dugc the hien hinh 2.
Cae rao can ve nhan thiic tam quan trong ciia BDKH, kidn tiiiie ky thuat vd cac bien phap thich ling, trinh dd van hda, thu nhap, tiep can thong tin vd BDKH la nhiing rao can chidm ty le cao (h-en 58%) trong tdng sd hd didu tra (Hinh 2). Didu nay cho thay, hg nuoi tdm chua thuc su hidu ro vd bidn ddi khi hau va anh hudng cua nd den boat dgng nudi tdm eua ho de cd bien phap thich irng kip thdi. Cac chuang trinh khuyen nong va giao due bidn ddi khi hau d dia phuong cd the chua phii hpp cung nhu su kdt ndi giira nong hd va can bd khuydn nong chua thuc su tdt. Trinh do van hda thap la nguyen nhan chit ydu gay trd ngai cho hg nuoi tom tidp can kien thiic, thong tin ve su thich ung BDKH mot each day diL. Bdn canh dd, thu nhap thap cung gay khd khan cho hd nudi tom dd cd dugc cac ngudn Iuc va cong nghe can thidt cho thich ling. Ngoai ra, cae van dd vd thdi quen san xuat, thi trudng dau ra, lao dgng, tiep can tin dung va dien tich dat dai cung duge duge hd nudi tom chi ra la nhiing rao can cho su thich ling cua hg (Hinh 2). Viec khac phuc cac rao can nay can tliiet cd su quan tam ciia chinh ban than ngudi nudi tdm, chinh quyen dia phuong va cac to chiic lien quan. Day la didu kien quan trgng de hd nudi tdm tang cudng kha nang ap dung cac bien phap thich ling nham giam dang ke thiet hai do BDKH gay ra.
4. KETLUAN
Da nghien ciiu eac ydu td anh hudng ddn quyet dinh ap dung cac chien luge thich ling vdi BDKH eua hd nudi tdm nude \a tai tinh Ben Tre. De ddi phd vdi tac dgng cua BDKH, ed bdn chidn luge thich ling dupe su dung bdi hd nudi tom bao gdm didu chinh lich thdi vu, didu chinh ky thuat nuoi, da dang hda san xuat va phdng ngira riii ro. Mo hinh hdi quy logit nhi thiic dugc lira chon su dung cho nghien ciiu nay.
cac bien phu thugc la 4 chidn lupc thich ling va cae bidn ddc lap la kinh td xa hdi, thd chd, bidn doi khi NONG NGHIEP VA PHAT TRIEN NONG THON - KY 2 - THANG 9/2020 39
KHOA HOC CONG NGHfe hau va cac yeu td hen quan khac. Kdt qua udc lugng
cho thay hau hdt cac bidn doc lap deu cd y nghia thdng ke nhung anh hudng cua mdi bien doe lap den quydt dinh ap dung timg chidn luoc tiiich ung la khac nhau. Gia tn tac dgng bien ctia tiing bidn doc lap cung dugc tinh toan.
Nghien eiiu chi ra rang quydt dinh ap dung chidn luge dieu chinh lich tiidi vu (CLDCLTV) phu thudc vao 8 ydu td la mo hinh nudi t6m; trinh do van hda; kinh nghiem; dien tich dat nuoi tdm; tham gia doan the; khoang each; huyen Binh Dai; sd nam nhan bidt thdi tidt thay ddi. Ben canh dd, chidn luge didu chinh ky thuat (CIDCKI) dugc ap dung bdi cae hg nudi tdm phu tiiuge vao 10 yeu td la: mo hinh nudi tdm; tudi cua chu hg; trinh do van hda; thu nhap;
tham gia khuyen nong; tidp can tin dung; tidp can dien; huydn Binh Dai; nhan thiie BDKH anh hudng ddn nudi tdm; va d nhidm ngudn nude. Quydt dinh ap dung chidn luge da dang hda san xuat (CIDDHSX) phu thugc vao 8 yeu td la: mo hinh nuoi tom; gidi tinh chu hg; lao dgng; dien tich nuoi tdm; sd lugng nguon th6ng tin ve BDKH; khoang each; nhan thiic BDKH anh hudng ddn nudi tdm; 6 nhidm ngudn nude, v a cudi eiing la quyet dinh ap dung chien luge phdng ngira nii ro (CLPNRR) chiu anh hudng bdi 6 ydu td la: tudi ciia ehii hd; quy md ho; thu nhap; tham gia khuyen ndng; sd lupng ngudn thdng tin vd BDKH; huydn T h ^ h Phu.
Ngoai ra, h6 nudi tdm cdn phai ddi mat vdi it nhat la 10 rao can cho viec ap dung cac chidn luoe thich ling vdi BDKH. Vide kham pha ra duge cac yeu td anh hudng den kha nang ap dung cac chidn luge thich ung cung nhu rao can thich ling cua h6 nuoi tdm cd the giiip Chinh phii de ra giai phap phii hgp nham tang cudng nang Iuc thich ung vdi BDKH va lam giam tinh dd bi tdn tiiuong. Chang han nhu dau tu vao giao due, tang cudng khuydn nong, cung cap kidn thiic ky thuat nudi tom tiiich irng vdi BDKH, cung cap tiidng tin canh bao ve su thay ddi thdi tiet kip thdi, cung cap tin dung, kidm soat 6 nhidm ngudn nude...
TAI UEU THAM KHAO
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adaptation and vuherabikty, condibauon oi workiag group If to the fourth assessment a (Mri of the IPCC (pp. 717-743).
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DETERMINANTS OF THE DECISION TO APPLY THE CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION STRATEGY BY BRACKISH SHRIMP FARMERS IN BEN TRE PROVINCE
Vo Thai HiepS Dang Thanh Ha^ Nguyen Ngoc Tliuy^
'PhD student. Department of Economics. Nong Lam University, Ho ChiMinh city
^Department of Economics, Nong Lam University, Ho ChiMinh city Summary
This study uses the binary logit regression model to analyze the factors that determine the decision to apply the climate change adaptation strategy of brackish shrimp farmers in Ben Tre province. Using a semi- structured questionnaire, 262 shrimp farmers were surveyed using stratiBed random sampling in 3 coastal districts, these are Thanh Phu, Ba Tri and Binh Dai. As a result, there are four climate change adaptation strategies; adjusting season calendar, adjusting farming techniques, diversifying production and preventing;
risks. Correspondingly, the binary logit regression showed that the factors had different influences on the application of each adaptation strategy of the household: socio-economic, insUtutional, climate, environment and geographic location. In addition, shnmp farmers face a number of adaptaUon barriers such as limited awareness of the importance of climate change, lack of technical knowledge on adaptation measures, low levels of educahon, low income and limited access to climate change information. Therefore, local governments and farmers need to develop more effective adaptaUon strategies by improving thees factors and overcoming adaptaUon barriers.
Keywords; Adaptation strategy, brackish shrimp culture, climate change.
Ngudi phaji bidn: PGS.TS. Vd Th; Thanh Ldc NgAynh^ bai: 8/5/2020
Ngay tiidng qua p h ^ bidn: 8/6/2020 Ngay duydt dang: 15/6/2020
NONG NGHIEP VA PHAT TRIEN NONG THON - KS 2 - THANG 9/2020
