5 rAtiONALE AND mEtHODOLOGiES FOr SHALE GAS BASELiNE StUDiES
5.2.2 Baseline Details for Long-term Needs
The anticipated exploration and exploitation of Karoo shale gas have raised considerable debate about the long-term benefits and risks associated with this process for both the Karoo, and the country as a whole. Attention must be paid to the way risks scale up, and to the mechanisms to share information, learn from and adapt operational best practice, and allow cautionary approaches and effective managing of risks that can inform continuous debate (Mair, 2015). To date, most focus has been placed on the potential impact of hydraulic fracturing (which generally lasts less than six months at any one site but which may be re-fractured anytime within eight months to six years after first production (Collins, 2015)) of Karoo gas-shales on the ecological environments, landscapes and ‘built environment’ (e.g. agriculture, infrastructure and mining- induced), and especially water resources.
One of the most intensive debates of shale gas development is the possible contamination of potable water. These impacts have been linked to the following risks associated with shale gas extraction and hydraulic fracturing in the Karoo, namely:
1 Water demand may exceed the needs of agriculture, ecosystems and human consumption.
2 Groundwater and surface water quality may be compromised through:
a) spills and leaks of chemicals and/or fuels on and around the well b) improper disposal of returned frack-fluid and production water;pad;
c) contamination of groundwater by drilling fluids and gas through faulty drill casings, poor cementing, as well as the associated risk of saline water contamination of fresh water sources through these casings;
d) upward and lateral leaks of highly saline groundwater into shallower fresh water aquifers via geological structures along dolerite sills and dykes, faults and fractured zones (all prominent geological features of the Karoo along its northern and southern prospective margins, respectively); and the possible regional shape of the basin that may induce artesian flow;
e) induced fluid flow during seismic activity along dormant faults triggered by the drilling, hydraulically fracturing or subsurface wastewater disposal.
3 Land use and habitat fragmentation of Karoo ecosystems and their services will result from:
a) well pads and increased local truck traffic;
b) supporting road and pipeline infrastructure;
c) increasing technical and social service industries.
4 Air quality will be affected through gas and particle emissions into the atmosphere during drilling and from poor well construction and transmission with potential direct effects on the SKA, and indirectly on local health and global climate change.
Therefore, essential to the development of any long-term monitoring system is the need for the acquisition of a natural baseline: an understanding of the existing situation prior to the introduction of an intended intervention or critical process. Essentially, a baseline study enables the establishment of a body on knowledge, or relevant information on key attributes or characteristics of any given situation prior to the commencement of prospective exploration/exploitation of the Karoo shale gas basin in South Africa.
Questions for baseline studies should be addressed through best practice and expert knowledge, and include: when and how baseline studies should be conducted, where should they take place, and how results should be communicated, including determining:
• What regional geologic features might determine ‘sweet spots’ for gas exploration/exploitation?
• What regional and local faults should be monitored for microseismic events?
• Which groundwater wells or water systems should be monitored?
• What time-scales are needed for results to cover drought cyclicity and spatially variable weather patterns?
• What results will provide best information about site-specific pollution (potential extraction sites, rural and urban sites)?
• What lasting changes to shallow and deep saline groundwater systems can be determined around selected old (1960s) deep drill sites of SOEKOR and previous uranium exploration-sites?
• What is the state of health (human and livestock) related to natural geochemical anomalies (medical geology)?
• What scientific techniques and equipment will produce the most robust and consistent data?
• What are the best ways to engage with local communities and provide open access to scientific data?
Central to the rationale for this Karoo baseline study remains the need for effective monitoring during and long after hydraulic fracturing. This will allow accurate future monitoring of relevant environmental, ecological and technical changes in the Karoo Basin if hydraulic fracturing and full development of the gas field commences.
In this context, the rationale for a baseline study (which importantly should not be confused in any way with an EIA or feasibility study) is inextricably linked to any future monitoring of the possible impact of gas exploration and exploitation in the Karoo Basin. Concomitant with this is the inevitability of the regulatory interface with this relatively new process of extraction, through an effective monitoring system, which will ultimately be dependent on quality, and on robust and relevant monitoring data. This system will require ongoing gathering, analysis and reporting on results over time. However, without baseline information, as is the case currently, future monitoring and effective regulation of shale gas exploration and exploitation in the Karoo will be virtually impossible. This will hinder government’s ability both to legislate, and to further sanction and prosecute offenders.
Similarly, a Karoo shale gas baseline study should go beyond the esta- blishment of a technical baseline of the geological and hydrological characteristics of the Karoo Basin. It is also important that the baseline is able to assist in long-term monitoring of the anticipated broader social and economic change. In this context, the baseline must assist ongoing monitoring and implementation of future socio-economic development outcomes aligned to the development of Karoo shale gas that are to be implemented by both government and industry. Here a baseline
study will assist in developing an appropriate ‘theory of change’ for the achievement of identified social and economic outcomes (i.e. defining the intended outcomes, and how these are to be achieved). Second, it will be essential for monitoring change, and improvements in the status quo over time, whilst later enabling effective evaluation of outcomes and impacts in the long term.
An initial three to five year ‘National Karoo Shale Gas Research Baseline Programme’ should be initiated prior to the commencement of hydraulic fracturing in the reservoir rock. It must be a cross-disciplinary programme comprising, but not restricted to, at least eight core research projects outlined in Appendix 3.