4 ASSESSMENT OF SOUTH AFRICA'S TECHNICAL TOOLS TO SUPPORT A SHALE GAS INDUSTRY – FACTORS TO BE CONSIDERED IN PRE-. 6 ASSESSMENT OF SOUTH AFRICA'S TECHNICAL TOOLKIT TO SUPPORT A SHALE GAS INDUSTRY – FACTORS TO BE CONSIDERED.
LiSt OF AcrONymS
NEMA National Environmental Management Act NERSA National Energy Regulator of South Africa NGO Non-Governmental Organisation. SAAO South African Astronomical Observatory SADC South African Development Community SALT South African Large Telescope.
PrEFixES, UNitS AND GASES
The South African Academy of Sciences (ASSAf) is mandated to provide evidence-based scientific advice to government on matters of critical national importance. Strategic issues of sustainable energy, skills development and job creation are addressed in this report on South Africa's technical readiness to support the shale gas industry.
AcKNOWLEDGEmENtS
During both phases of shale gas exploration, quantitative knowledge of groundwater resources of the Karoo will improve significantly. This should include an assessment of the potential of shale gas to have a significant impact on national energy requirements.
1 iNtrODUctiON
- Background to the Study
- Study methodology
- Scope and Objectives of the Study
- Overview
This report specifically addresses the technical readiness of South Africa to support a shale gas industry. These uncertainties are indicative of the risks and challenges associated with establishing a shale gas industry in South Africa.
2 tHE SHALE GAS DEBAtE
- What is Shale Gas and Where Does it Occur?
- How is Shale Gas Accessed?
- Potential Benefits of Shale Gas
- Shale Gas Licencing and the Expected Start of Exploration in South Africa
- review of the Legal, regulatory and Governance Aspects
- technical regulations
- co-operative Governance (chapter 3 of the constitution) .1 Constitutional Aspects
- mineral and Petroleum resources Development Act .1 Introduction
- Administration of mining and Petroleum Laws .1 Introduction
- the National Environmental management Act and Other Environmental Legislation
- Astronomy Geographic Advantage Act
- National Heritage resources Act
- institutions
A central part of the regulatory regime for envisaged shale gas activities is the water licensing regime set out in Chapter 4 of the Act. The Minister of Mineral Resources may appoint any DMR officer for EMRI.
3 iNtErNAtiONAL PErSPEctivES
- Preamble
- challenges Facing Sustainable Energy Supply and Demand
- in a Nutshell – What is Shale Gas?
- What are the Benefits, and What are the risks?
- retaining a Balanced Perspective
Some companies have conducted tests to assess the potential effects of shale gas exploitation. The American Society of Petroleum Geologists (Engelder, 2014) has acknowledged serious shortcomings in the development of the shale gas industry.
Overview of Shale Gas Development by country
- United States of America
- European Union
- United Kingdom
- Poland
- Germany
- France
- canada
- Australia
- china
The TRR for shale gas is estimated to be 17 tcf (US EIA, 2013a) and 25 - 81 tcf according to the German Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe (BGR), 2012). The key message is that Germany will continue to debate shale gas for a long time to come.
Key Lessons for South Africa
However, following the launch of a dedicated shale gas industry policy in October 2013, technological barriers still remain. It is not surprising at this stage that shale gas is being produced at prices more than double those of the largest projects in the US. According to The Economist (2014b), China has drastically reduced its ambitions to be a major shale gas producer.
Following the examples of the UK, Germany, Poland, Canada and Australia, South Africa should conduct its own baseline studies in order to facilitate the unequivocal assessment of environmental impacts during shale gas extraction by industry.
4 EvALUAtiON OF SOUtH AFricA’S tEcHNicAL rEADiNESS tO SUPPOrt
Exploration to evaluate the Shale Gas Potential of the Karoo
- Shale Gases and Gas-Shales
- towards a rigorous Scientific Exploration Programme for Gas-Shales in the Karoo
- Summary
The northern extent is bounded by the 30 m isopach of the Whitehill Formation (black dashed line), while the eastern extent, just south of Aliwal North, by the thickest dolerite intrusions in the Karoo Basin (east of purple dashed line). Microseismic monitoring of the first multi-stage hydraulic fracturing is a prerequisite for all drilling. Flowback fluid is a combination of the returning hydraulic fracturing fluid (slickwater) and water from the shale formation, which can have a salinity of between 10 gm/l and 100 gm/l total dissolved solids (TDS).
This eliminates a significant portion of the Karoo Basin for initial exploitation targets, including regions around SALT and SKA.
- introduction
- Water and chemical requirements for Hydraulic Fracturing .1 Hydraulic Fracturing Well Layouts
- Water Availability
- Hydrogeology
- Water Use Licence
- Hydraulic Fracturing
- Summary
Flowback that is likely to occur after pressurizing the well system through the hydraulic fracturing process. Sources of sand to be used as proppants in the hydraulic fracturing fluid if not specially manufactured. It is likely that the implementation of hydraulic fracturing in the Karoo will follow a two-phase process.
The sources of water to be used for hydraulic fracturing in the Karoo have not been identified and will be subject to the issuance of a water use permit by DWS as set out above.
Potential impact on Astronomy
- Preamble
- introduction
- review of risks
- Updated Assessment
- Summary
The nature of EMI is such that it is usually weak, but covers a large part of the radio frequency spectrum that will be used by the SKA. The optimization of the configuration of Phase 1 of the SKA took into account the road network and the associated traffic volumes in the Karoo region. An updated assessment (Tiplady, 2012) carried out following the publication of the bid for the SKA site in 2012 found no justification for reducing the recommended separation distance (or buffer zone) due to a change in the radio frequency spectrum to be used by the SKA in South Africa.
Hydraulic fracturing operations, including support activities, remain a significant risk to SKA's scientific performance.
Potential Socio-Economic impacts
- introduction
- Socio-Economic Profile and challenges in the central and Southern Karoo The Karoo Basin covers six of the nine provinces of South Africa. With
- Socio-Economic and community impacts Associated with Shale Gas Development
This is in stark contrast to the existence of structures such as the Treasure Karoo Action Group (TKAG) and local organized and commercial farming structures (such as those associated with Agri Eastern Cape) which have long been opposed to the development of shale gas in the Karoo. . This may require consideration of a special provincial and local government grant for areas affected by future shale gas development. Traditionally, the focus has been offshore and we are entering uncharted territory in relation to shale gas in the Karoo.
In the current context of the Karoo, it is uncertain whether the process to date reflects this growing consensus approach to shale gas development.
5 rAtiONALE AND mEtHODOLOGiES FOr SHALE GAS BASELiNE StUDiES
- Background
- What in the Karoo is Foremost that must be Protected?
- international Perspectives
Thus, basic ecosystem and critical area studies in the Karoo prior to gas exploration are essential. Thus, baseline studies of (natural) CH4 emissions and air quality in the Karoo prior to gas exploration are essential. Thus, basic microseismic and structural geology studies in the Karoo prior to gas exploration are essential, and then induced seismic maps should be developed for the Karoo.
To manage the risks, benefits and uncertainties of gas exploitation in the Karoo, a data time series of environmental indicators in critical areas needs to be developed.
- immediate Baseline Needs
- Baseline Details for Long-term Needs
The design and implementation of a multidisciplinary research program is required to determine the natural and social condition of the Karoo prior to the commencement of shale gas exploration and exploitation. 3-D geology imaging studies of the Karoo to determine potential variability of saline water resources and identify shale gas and radioactive hotspots. One of the most intense debates of shale gas development is the potential contamination of drinking water.
In this context, the rationale for the baseline study (which is important not to be confused with an environmental impact assessment or feasibility study) is integral to any future monitoring of the potential impact of gas exploration and exploitation in the Karoo Basin.
Focus on Dynamic Water Baseline Studies
- reasoning and implications
- Problem identification
- methodology
- Details of Analyses and interpretation
An initial three to five year 'National Karoo Shale Gas Research Baseline Programme' should be initiated prior to the commencement of hydraulic fracturing in the reservoir rock. This serves as a word of caution to those who may rely on single sample baseline studies in the Karoo (eg KANSA, 2015). 6. Hydrochemically characterize both the shallow groundwater (<300 m) and deeper saline groundwater (>300 m) in the area likely to be for early shale gas exploration in the Karoo.
This has been attempted in the Karoo in the past, but without the above requirements the results were inconclusive (eg Talma and Esterhuyse.
6 EvALUAtiON OF SOUtH AFricA’S tEcHNicAL rEADiNESS tO SUPPOrt
Well construction and closure
- introduction
- Amount and Quality of Water required for Drilling a Well
- Specification for casing and inspection criteria
- reliability of Hangers in casings
- the Possibility of Using Production casings to the Surface
- Quality of cement and integrity
- Pressure testing of the Well
- Well closure
- Availability of Drilling rigs in South Africa
- Availability of cement in South Africa
Liquid and/or gas can then accumulate in the interior of the wellbore, between production liner and intermediate casing. Care must be taken in defining the liability of the well for the period after the abandonment. The overlap of the cement between the production and intermediate section is 60 m (Natural Resources Defense Council, 2012).
Well closure legislation must be carefully defined to ensure proper sealing of the well after the production period.
Distribution and Exploitation of Shale Gas
- introduction
- Gas-to-Electricity
- Gas for industry
- Gas as chemical Feedstock
- Gas for transport Fuels
- Gas for Domestic Applications
- Local Economic Development
- Enabling infrastructure
- Summary
Apart from PetroSA's offshore pipeline to the Mossgas refinery, South Africa's natural gas transmission and distribution infrastructure is concentrated in Gauteng and Mpumalanga. At the same time, the availability of natural gas in the northeastern part of. The commercial viability of any future methanol production from indigenous natural gas in South Africa will be linked to global commodity prices for methanol (if global production is dominated by China).
4 South Africa should prioritize research that shows the total environmental costs and benefits of the shale gas value chain.
- introduction
- Skills required for Developing the Shale Gas industry in South Africa The oil and gas industry is usually discussed in terms of its different sectors
- Quantification
- the Status Quo for Scarce Skills in South Africa
- matters of concern relating to Skills Development in the Short/medium and Long term
This must be accompanied by the implementation of the vision from the GUMP. Essentially, none of the skills related to oil and gas exploration and production are currently being produced in South Africa. Interestingly, of the 88 occupations on the DHET Scarce Skills List, it is estimated that 78 will also be affected by the shale gas industry if it takes off.
1 To start the shale gas industry in South Africa, many of the skills needed for the upstream sector must be imported.
7 cONcLUSiONS AND rEcOmmENDAtiONS
Key Findings
- international Perspectives
- Exploration to evaluate the Shale Gas Potential of the Karoo
- Legal, regulatory and Governance Aspects
- issues of Water, Sand, Air and GHG Emissions
- Potential impacts on Astronomy Activities
- Socio-Economic impacts of a Shale Gas industry
- rationale and methodologies for Baseline Studies in the Karoo
- Well construction and closure
- Distribution and Exploitation of Shale Gas
- capacity and Skills Development
Based on a comprehensive review of shale gas developments in other countries, many lessons can be learned. During both phases of shale gas exploration, quantitative knowledge about groundwater resources of the Karoo will improve significantly. Some impacts of a shale gas industry will be immediate and at the local level at drilling and gas wells.
The country should prioritize research that demonstrates the total environmental costs and benefits of the shale gas value chain.
11 An assessment of the economic implications of shale gas development for South Africa needs to be made to critically assess supply. After this study, it will become clear where efforts should be directed to support the shale gas industry. 16 A review of the state of shale gas exploration in South Africa needs to be undertaken to provide a base from which to grow local exploration capacity.
19 Any legislation introduced to control the shale gas industry must fully comply with the AGA Act.
GLOSSAry
A geological formation in which natural gas is in interconnected pore spaces, much like a kitchen sponge, that allows for easier flow into a well. These fugitive emissions can result in the release of methane, the main component of natural gas and a potent greenhouse gas. Not to be confused with "shale oil", which is the oil contained in natural gas extracted from deep shale.
Produced Water Naturally occurring water found in shale formations; it typically flows to the surface throughout the life of a well, often together with natural gas.
BiBLiOGrAPHy
Available at: http://www.scienceadvice.ca/uploads/eng/assessments%20 and%20publications%20and%20news%20releases/shale%20gas/shalegas_. Special Report on the Economic Aspects of Potential Shale Gas Resources in the Southern Karoo, South Africa.
