M~VANGO
5.10 Emergency Status for the ENWC Ends
The Namibian government advanced the Okavango pipeline proposal in 1996 as an
"emergency" project - to be completed by 1998 - when the nations reservoirs dropped to less than 10 percent of capacity following several years of drought. Plentiful rains fell in Namibia last year, filling reservoirs to capacity and recharging many groundwater aquifers. The Namibian government now estimates that Central Area has sufficient water for at least four years, even if little rain falls. As a result, the government confirmed recently that it no longer regards the Okavango pipeline as an emergency project, and extended its completion date to 2003 (Business in Africa, June-July 1998).
The Namibian Cabinet stressed, however, that it still considers the pipeline a "future emergency" project that should proceed nonetheless, and announced that a full study will soon begin (Heyns, 1995a). The non-emergency status of the pipeline and the extension of the
completion date will give NGO's and the Botswana government a chance to thoroughly evaluate the potential impacts of the pipeline, and will allow OKACOM to incorporate the project into its river basin management plan. Also, Namibia can now explore alternatives to the pipeline without the acute threat of a water shortage. Finally, the delay opens a window for Okavango Delta Communities to organize and participate in the process.
Many in Botswana question whether Namibia has thoroughly considered all of its options before turning to international waters. The Okavango River Pipeline was first conceived in the 1970s, before much investigation into groundwater reserves or other water sources had been done.
Namibia still has not conducted a thorough assessment of groundwater supplies, suggesting the decision to build the pipeline is not fully informed (Rothert, pers. comm). The government's 1993 Water Plan projects that water demand in the Central Area could rise from approximately 55 million cubic meters today to between 150 and 240 million cubic meters by 2020, possibly exceeding supplies by 2003 (Heyns, 1995a).
The study indicates that the Central Area has a number of undeveloped water sources that could meet demands for at least 10 years and forestall the need to tap the Okavango. Together, the various sources identified could supply a 95 percent safe yield of approximately 80 million cubic meters per year (Heyns, 1995b). The water plan's list of potential sources does not address relative costs or environmental impacts of the various sources, but it does indicate that there are other options that could meet demand for some time (Ibid).
The elimination of inefficiencies from the existing ENWC system, and using the Windhoek Aquifer as an underground reservoir to reduce evaporation (a serious problem for open water bodies of water in hot, dry climates) would yield more than 8 million cubic meters per year, which is more than half of what the proposed emergency pipeline would extract (Rothert, pers.
comm). Perhaps the most appealing alternative on the list is desalination, which offers a virtually unlimited supply and relatively few environmental constraints. The problem at this time is the cost. According to government assessments, the cost of desalinating seawater is approximately
$N5/cubic meter - at the coast - compared to an estimate of $NlO/cubic meter of Okavango water delivered to Windhoek (The Namibian, 1997).
The cost of pumping de~alinated water over 350 kilometers and up 1600 meters to Windhoek reportedly raises the cost to at least $N12/cubic meter. Until the cost of water in Namibia
increases significantly or the cost of the technology decreases, desalination will not offer an economically competitive alternative for Windhoek water supply. However, recent advances in the technology being developed in South Africa and elsewhere could make this an economically competitive alternative in the near future (Heyns, 1995a).
The consideration of alternatives to the Okavango pipeline leads to a broader question that has been raised in discussions of water resources in Southern Africa: should countries have to meet certain standards before tapping international waters and adversely impacting their neighbours?
Such standards might include recycling a certain percentage of water consumed, implementing effective conservation and demand control measures, and full utilisation of economically feasible domestic sources. This approach would certainly go beyond any current international river basin agreements, but would help southern African countries stretch their limited water supplies over the long road to economic development.
The Okavango River Basin has unique qualities in terms of its geomorphology, hydrology, and biodiversity, qualities which remain relatively pristine with little discernible human impact on the hydrology and aquatic ecology of the basin. The significance of the basin has been highlighted by the international interest in the hydro-ecological state of the Delta and the bio- diversity it supports. In addition, by virtue of its remoteness and the continuing political instability, the Angolan portion of the basin remains one of the least developed regions in the savannah belt that traverses Angola, the Republic of Congo and Zambia. The complex arrangement of linear tributaries, dambos and broad seepage zones in the upper and middle Cuito and Cubango sub-basins make road access difficult and it is probable that this relatively undisturbed environment exhibits largely unmodified hydrological responses. The incipient degradation under the baseline conditions will threaten aquatic flora and their associate fauna both in the source sub-basins in Angola and the Delta in Botswana.
If left unchecked, the direct and indirect threats to this international water body will result in the breakdown of the hydrological and ecological integrity causing the global community to forfeit sizeable conservation benefits (including direct and indirect use values, and existence and option values). The threats are real and imminent - as evidenced by the recent unilateral initiative by Namibia to abstract water from the system under emergency drought conditions. This was avoided following a period of rainfall that re-established reservoir levels in the central area of the country. It is expected that the opportunity to protect this relatively pristine system will not
appear again and that the costs of remedial action will exceed current conservation costs by several orders of magnitude.
CHAPTER SIX
Countries need to establish links allowing for discussion and the exchange ofviews, and mutual beneficial cooperation in order to achieve better management ofshared water resources.
(Pallet, 1997;pp.65)