CENTRAL SUPPLY AREA
Map 5: The Republic of Botswana
5.8 Security threats to Namibia's decision to divert water from the Okavango River
It was reported in the Mail and Guardian of 29 November 1996 that plans by the Namibian government to go ahead with a project to draw water per pipeline from the Okavango River were adding to the tension between the two states for the scheme holds the potential of turning the Okavango Delta into a desert. The Batswana are extremely concerned about the Namibian plans and have warned that any unilateral interference with the river could have grave consequences for the country and its people. The world's third largest oasis the Okavango Delta is responsible
for a third of Botswana's foreign currency earnings. The river and the delta it supports are thus of vital importance to Botswana's economic and political stability.
It has been pointed out that while concerned white business people in Botswana can always move elsewhere, this is not an option for many blacks who make a living off the river and the delta. The mood and concern of these people is volatile. Tawana Moremi's threats of bombing the pipeline may seem a rather drastic solution, but, for many Batswana who are concerned about the effect that Namibian interference may have in their livelihood and their future, this may be a legitimate solution in the end. Since the Namibian plan became known the idea of military action against Namibia is something that is now raised and Botswana's recent attempts to purchase heavy battle tanks from Europe and military aircraft from Canada are seen by many as a precautionary move by the government to safeguard its natural resources (Le Roux, 1998).
According to Heyns (1998), a senior Namibian water engineer, "it has been suggested that the Batswana wants to buy tanks to shoot at the Namibian's because they want to steal water from the Okavango".
Although Botswana recognizes the fact that Namibia has a serious water shortage problem and that a mechanism in the form of OKACOM, is available to deal with the issue, the Namibians appeared determined to unilaterally go ahead with their plans to pipe water from the Okavango River. Representatives from an American company, Owens Coming, that also has strong businesses connections in South Africa, had already visited Windhoek in connection with the construction of the proposed pipeline. The pipeline was expected to cost some one billion Pula, is designed to draw 700 liters of water per second or an estimated 20 million cubic meters of water a year from the Okavango River (Cashman, 1994).
Since then, Namibian government has denied that it would go ahead with the project to pump water from the Okavango River without the approval and cooperation of the Botswana Government. According to Namibia's Deputy Secretary of Water Affairs, no international donor would fund the project if Botswana was adamantly opposed to the feasibility study. Fry, a Namibian geologist and consultant on the ENWC believes that in the end the Batswana government will see Namibia's water crisis "in the light of humanitarian need and will ultimately respond to the pipeline project sympathetically" (The Mail and Guardian, 6-10 December 1996). Although Fry (pers. comm) was reluctant to say about Namibia's actions
against Botswana's rejection of the feasibility study, he did point out that Namibia has few alternatives to pursue in order to solve the country's pressing water needs.
There can be no doubt that Botswana's socio-economic and political future is closely tied up with the Okavango River. Any attempt by either the Angolans or the Namibian's to interfere with the river's flow is bound to have a serious effect on Botswana's economic and political stability in particular, as well as on the future of so'uthern Africa in general. In the same way as Egypt, to a large degree, depends on the Nile for its economic security and prosperity, Botswana depends on the water of the Okavango for its economic and political well-being. Besides diamonds, which account for close to 80 per cent of the country's exports, Botswana is also rich in other base minerals but it needs a secure and constant supply of sufficient water to develop these and other resources in order to meet the demands that are currently being made on the country by its rapidly increasing population. In order to make the country's economy more secure, it needs to make it less dependent on diamond exports which have shown a steady decline over the last few years. Botswana's revenue from diamonds declined from more than
$1,06 billion in 1992 to $850 million in 1993 (Botswana government 1997b). These figures were, however, reversed in 1994 when revenue from diamond sales was reported to be US$ 1,74 billion.
The Botswana government is well aware of the fact that any interference with the flow and volume of the Okavango River will have a detrimental effect on the country's economic prosperity. Although figures for the current unemployment situation in Botswana are not available, figures for 1992 have shown a sharp increase from 27 per cent in 1991 to 29 per cent in 1992. These figures will no doubt be higher now due to a sharp increase in Botswana's population since the end of the 1980s. The situation has deteriorated to such an extent that even graduates are now reportedly having difficulty in finding employment (Mahende, 1996).
The growing tension between Botswana and Namibia over the formers increased arms purchases was one of the aspects highlighted at a SADC meeting in Zimbabwe in August 1996 (Ohlsson, 1995). It was pointed out that while the end to apartheid has removed the greatest destabilizing factor in southern Africa, other factors such as the growing tension between Namibia and Botswana have the potential to create instability in the region (Fall, 1997). Only time will tell whether the two countries will be able to find an amicable solution to their dispute over Sed~du Island and the waters of the Okavango River.
5.9 Okavango Delta Communities Formally Oppose Namibian Pipeline
Okavango Delta communities have sent a joint letter to the government of Namibia urging it to find alternatives to the proposed pipeline. Citing their dependence on the fragile delta ecosystem for water, food and livelihood, Delta communities fear the proposed pipeline would spell the beginning of the end of their lifestyles. Mr. Wanga Moremi, one of the 2500 signatories to the letter and a resident of a small village overlooking the delta, said, "Why do the Namibians want to take our only source of water when they could get desalinated water from the Atlantic ocean, or fresh water from the Cunene River? We depend on the delta for almost everything (photos page 98). Without it, we would have to move or die" (Rothert, 1998).
(PhotosM. Chase, 2000)
Photos 8,9,10&11 from top left: Women using reeds from the Okavango delta for thatching;
baskets from the Okavango delta; fisherman using traditional reed baskets and the an Aerial view of the Okavango delta.
Doctor Samora Gaborone, spokesperson for the Okavango Liaison Group, (OLG) which facilitated the community letter, said, "The communities hope this letter will encourage the Namibian government to search for alternative sources for water. We understand Namibia needs water, but we hope they will search for other ways to meet their needs, such as conservation, or desalinization, rather than this pipeline which could harm the 100 000 people and world renowned ecosystem the Delta supports".
While Namibia currently proposes to extract only a small percentage of the Okavango River's total flow, communities fear that even a relatively small extraction could result in serious impacts at the edge of the Delta. Access to water has become difficult over the last two decades.
Several communities that used to lie on the edge of water now have to walk several kilometers or dig deep wells to collect water (MaBeki pers. comm. 1998). Given the already decreasing flows, and the natural tendency of Delta channels to shift locations, the communities wonder how Namibia can know with certainty what impact any diversion will have on the ecosystem and the communities. According to Du Plessis (pers. comm, a De Beers geologist), there is a great deal of geological activity in the Okavango region and he expects the area to continue tilting to the northeast. "Normally we don't see the effect of this tectonic plate movement since it happens very slowly, but in the Okavango you only need a plate movement of a couple of centimeters for the water to change course and the delta to dry up" (Du Plessis, 1989) (Refer to Map 6 page 98).
Another fear of Delta communities is that this will be only the first of ever-larger extractions.
Namibia's water demand is expected to more than double from the 1990 level of 250 million cubic meters per year to 600 million cubic meters per year by 2020 (Cashman, 1994). If Namibia turns to the Okavango now for its next 100 million cubic meters of annual supply, what is to keep them from coming back for the next 250 million cubic meters per year to meet demand unti12020? Pipeline proponent's point out that flows into the delta can naturally vary by nearly 10 billion cubic maters from year to year, and so adapted to hydrological variation (Du Plessis, 1998). Project opponents note that the pipeline would take water from the river when the Delta needs it most: during drought years. As proposed last year, the pipeline would divert between 20 and 120 million cubic meters only during "crisis years". Environmentalists point out that crisis years for Namibia will most likely correspond to crisis years for the Delta as well, thereby compounding the impact on the Delta's ecology.
Map 6: Sketch map showing the major fault lines and distributary channels of the Okavango River in the panhandle and the Okavango delta, together with the extent of seasonal and permanent swamps, in relation to local elevation.
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