4.4. COUNTRY ANALYSIS
4.4.2. GERMANY
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data using correlation analysis to test the statistical significance of the relationship between United States import cif/fob ratios and the country’s composition of imports.
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and trends of the nation’s imports cif/fob ratios to that of the Germany’s composition of imports observed.
Germany’s compositions of imports flow pattern and make-up, as it is observed from Germany’s trade data in its high-valued goods SITC 5 to SITC 9 imports from the table below, that Germany invests heavily in importation of capital goods, in this case importation of machinery and transport equipment (SITC 7). An increase in SITC 7 was observed between 1980 to 2002. Thereafter, a more stable trend was evident until 2007 from which time there was an observed decline in SITC 7 categorised imports until the last period of the year analysed which is 2014. Germany’s miscellaneous manufactured goods in SITC 8 shows slow increase from 1980 to 1993 then a decrease was observed from 1994 to 2009, then a slight rise until 2014.
Manufactured goods classified chiefly by material (SITC 6) declined slightly throughout the period of the analysis and still accounts for a high percentage of trade inflow, except for SITC 7 imports, when compared to all other categories of imports. Germany’s chemicals and related products (SITC 5) were observed to have increased slightly all through the period of the analysis. Germany’s SITC 9 (commodities and transactions not elsewhere classified) was stable over the period until a sudden increase was evidenced in year 1999 and 2000.
However, the examination of Germany’s low-valued imports categories from 1980 to 2014, shows that Germany’s imports of mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials (SITC 3) has a downward trend compared to that of Germany’s SITC 7 imports (machinery and transport equipment) that has a rising trend as observed in figure 4.3. The country’s SITC 3 (low-valued) imports is declining during a period when its SITC 7 (high-valued) imports is rising and only to rise when SITC 7 begins to decrease.
Germany’s importation of food and live animals (SITC 0) was observed to have a smooth declining trend throughout the period analysed, a similar trend was observed in the importation of crude materials and inedible, except fuels (SITC 2). The SITC category of importation of animals, vegetable oils, fats and waxes (SITC 4) and beverages and tobacco (SITC 1) is observed to have a stable, very low level, of inflow throughout the period of analysis from 1980 to 2014.
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Figure 4. 3. Germany’s SITC 7 and SITC 3 category as a Percentage of Total Imports, 1980- 2014.
Source: Author’s Calculations from data sourced from Word Integrated Trade Solution (WITS), World Bank, 2015.
So to say, in figure 4.4., it is observed generally that Germany experienced a relative increase in its high-valued imports compared to its low valued imports that declined throughout the period of analysis. Despite a slight decline in SITC 7 (high-valued) imports for the last 7 years (2007 to 2014) of the analysis and a slight increase in low-valued imports (SITC 3) towards the same period from 2007 to 2014, it could be seen that overall manufactured imports of Germany overshadowed its low-valued imports.
Without any further assessment or computation of the country’s cif/fob ratios and based on the reasoning from the theory “that a rise in the proportion of a country’s high-valued imports contributes to a decline in that country’s import cif/fob ratios, ceteris paribus and a rise in the proportion of a country’s low-valued imports equally contributes to a rise in that country’s import cif/fob ratios, ceteris paribus” (Chasomeris, 2006). Germany should experience a smoother/decline in its imports cif/fob ratios over the periods 1986 to 2006 with the later years
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
SITC Percentage %
3- Mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials; 7- Machinery and transport equipment;
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depending on the general difference in weight experienced in the rise and decrease of its low- valued and high-valued imports respectively between 2007 and 2014.
Figure 4. 4. Germany’s SITC Imports as a Percentage of Total Imports, 1980-2014
Source: Author’s Calculations from data sourced from World Bank, 2015 (Word Integrated Trade Solution).
However, due to the lack of data in computing Germany’s imports cif/fob ratios for the periods 1999 to 2014, Germany’s import cif/fob ratio could only be analysed up until 1998. Figure 4.5 presents a view of Germany’s import cif/fob ratios over the period, and by merely looking at the figures, it is observed that Germany witnessed a stable pattern in its import cif/fob ratios for the period. This is important as Germany’s trade pattern, in the composition of its imports, earlier indicated through the theory that the country should undoubtedly experience a stable decline in its imports cif/fob ratios between 1986 and 2006, except for years 1994 and 1995, which experienced
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
SITC Percentage %
0- Food and live animals; 1- Beverages and tobacco;
2- Crude materials, inedible, except fuels; 3- Mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials;
4- Animal and vegetable oils, fats and waxes; 5- Chemicals and related products;
6- Manufactured goods classified chiefly by material; 7- Machinery and transport equipment;
8- Miscellaneous manufactured articles; 9- Commodities and transactions not elsewhere classified
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a slight increase in its SITC 0 and SITC 1 and a drop in SITC 8 and SITC 9. However, there was no cif/fob ratio data to check the expected change in the country’s imports cif/fob ratios from 2007 to 2014 due to the changes in unweighted composition of the country’s low-valued and high- valued imports.
Figure 4. 5. Germany’s cif/fob Ratio (1980- 1998) and Manufactured Import from 1980 – 2014
Source: Author’s calculations from data sourced from World Bank data, 2015 (Word Integrated Trade Solution) and Quantec Easy Data, 2013.
Figure 4.5. shows that Germany’s imports cif/fob ratios when compared against its manufactured imports (SITC 7) as a proportion of its total imports evidenced that the country’s cif/fob ratios directional flow is proportionate in trend or movement to the country’s manufactured imports as a percentage of the total imports.
The analysis of the unfolding of Germany’s composition of trade imports and its cif/fob ratios reveal that it would be incorrect to speculate that a country’s imports cif/fob ratios is a direct reflector of changes in the transportation cost of the country or ad-valorem shipping cost as it
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
0 0,005 0,01 0,015 0,02 0,025 0,03 0,035
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Pecentage of SITC
Percentage of cif/fob ratio
cif/fob-1 7- Machinery and transport equipment;
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reveals here that it is partly a reflection of the country’s composition of imports. However, having observed the trend of the country’s import cif/fob ratios and the evolution of its composition of imports, it is explicit that Germany’s composition of imports do, as the theory indicates, play a role in determining the direction of the Germany’s imports cif/fob ratios. Section 4.5 uses correlation analysis to test the statistical significance of the relationship between Germany’s imports cif/fob ratios and the country’s composition of imports.
4.4.3. SOUTH AFRICA