Step 9 Monitoring and Evaluation
3.2 MODELS OF TOURISM PLANNING AND DEVELOPMENT
3.2.10 Models of Tourism Travel
The geography of tourism continues to lack a strong conceptual and theoretical base (Pearce, 1995). It is therefore important for this study to look at various tourism models dealing with various aspects of the spatial structure and reasons for tourist travel to better understand the phenomenon of tourism thus being able to plan accordingly. This section reviews and evaluates the spatial models which have been developed with the aim of providing theoretical and conceptual base and general frameworks for examining the spatial dynamics of tourism.
3.2.10.1 Nearest Neighbour models
A related question is whether or not, in looking at a tourist, the attractions are
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clustered or randomly distributed. Arguably, random distribution is an inhibiting factor in tourist travel. A planning authority might therefore be seeking to locate new attractions in places that create logical travel patterns. The word logical, obviously requires careful definition in practice, but for current purpose it might be held to mean the location of attractions in positions that help engender tourist visits, whilst indeed, they may be in positions that help protect fragile areas (Ryan, 1991 59)
3.2.10.2 Econometric models
With reference to gravity models, such forecasting becomes possible by changing one of the variables within the model that relate , to say, attractiveness of the resort due to an enhancement of visitor attractions, a diminution of travel time due to increased accessibility, or the result of changes in population (Ryan, 1991:62). The validity and reliability of the econometric model in tourism rest upon a number of requirements. Technically, problems such as multi-colinearity may have to be avoided, that is, the variables perceived as determining variables will need to be independent of each other. Apart from these problems, for which statistical techniques exist to help, it has to be recognised that econometric models for tourism require large amounts of data. Even comparatively simple models might require data on the costs of transport, travel time, and departure frequently, which is important for business travel, the characteristics of the destination, and the relative costs of activities at the resorts, socio-economic data about consumers, income data, exchange rates, differential inflation rates between two competing destinations and the tourist generating countries (Ryan, 1991:62).
The significance of this model in the study is that there needs to be a strong institutionalised research capacity in KwaZulu-Natal to ensure that tourism planners understand all the aspects that determine tourist travel. Tourism policies and plans in KwaZulu-Natal ought to be based on scientifically researched and proven data to ensure that all the stakeholders within the tourism value chain in KwaZulu-Natal perform their respective roles and responsibilities based on appropriate data and information.
101 3.2.10.3 The Origin-destination models
There are different types of models demonstrating the nature of interaction between demand and supply that influence tourist flows. The early explicit models of tourist systems tended to focus on linkage or travel component, differentiating between recreational travel and pleasure travel, and demand and supply, whereas the origin- destination models are based on the assumption that most places are, in varying degree origins and destinations and serve both as receiving and generating places (Loannides & Debbage, 1998:80). Destination, as distinct from origin or market, refers to the place where tourists intend to spend their time away from home. This geographical unit visited by tourists may be a self-contained centre, a village or town or a city, a region or an island or a country (Jafari, 2000:104).
Origin- linkage-destination models may serve to explain the basics of the generating and receiving function. In many countries or regions, there are likely to be a number of origins and destinations with most places performing both functions. As well as sending tourists to some multiple destinations, a particular place may also receive visitors from those same and other places. Likewise, the routes and linkages may carry tourists from one place to the other and back again to some third place (Jafari, 2000:104). Basic groups of models might be identified, namely, those emphasizing the travel or linkage component, origin-destination models and evolutionary models (Pearce, 1995).
Figure 3.9 shows the Mariot’s model of tourist flows between two locations Three different routes which may link a place of permanent residence (origin) to a tourist centre (destination); an access route, a return route, and a recreation route are proposed (Mariot, 1969 cited in Matley, 1976). The access route and return route, which in some cases may be one and the same, essentially provide a direct link between the two places. Those travelling the recreational route will make use of various tourist facilities along the way, even if the intervening area does not constitute the main goal of the journey. Alternatively, the tourist may use the recreational route for only part of the journey, entering or leaving it at some stage en route between the origin and destination. Implicit in Mariot’s recreational route is the
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idea of touring that is in visiting several places on the trip rather than just a single destination. Tourism planners need to understand this pattern of travelling by tourists so that they can plan their destinations appropriately and coordinate tourism facility offerings among destinations appropriately (Pearce, 1995).
FIGURE 3.9: MARIOT’S MODEL OF TOURISTS FLOWS BETWEEN TWO LOCATIONS
Source: Pearce (1995)
In the context of this study, the origin-destination model is important for KwaZulu- Natal in assisting tourism policy makers and planners to understand where the tourists visiting this province are generated, as well as what are the causes of their propensity to travel.
3.3 MODELS OF HUMAN RESOURCES PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT FOR