10.4 Suggestions for Future Research
10.4.6 Produce more comprehensive agrohydrological forecasts
Forecasts of other components of the physical system that are dependent on rainfall (and temperature) could be obtained using the indirect methodology of passing climatic forecasts through, say, agrohydrological models. Crop yield, dam level, irrigation water use and supply are but some examples of the types of forecasts that could be produced by following the methodologies proposed and suggested above.
10.5 A Concluding Thought
In this particular study the methods used have not delivered convincing results in terms of forecast accuracy and skill. The poor performance can probably be attributed to the relatively unsophiSticated nature of the downscaling and interpolative techniques used to produce daily rainfall forecasts at a Quaternary Catchment scale. It is believed that if the downscaling techniques could be improved, or forecasts produced at a more local scale, the runoff and other forecasts would improve correspondingly. It is the author's opinion that in the near future, with newly focussed research efforts, building on what has been learned in this study, reliable agrohydrological forecasts can be used within the framework of water resources and risk management, preventing loss of life, saving considerable hardship and saving affected industry and commerce millions of rands annually.
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