1. INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
4.6 Results
4.6.4 Projected Impacts of Climate Change
With regard to the present (1971-1990) and future (2046-2065) GCM projections, variable changes between the present and the future were presented as ratios of change and percentage changes.A ratio value above 1 indicates an increasing trend in the simulated variable, a value between 0.9 and 1 indicates a negligible change in the variable and a value below 0.9 indicates a decreasing trend in the simulated variable. The ratios represent qualitative rather than quantitative changes in the simulated WQ variables. Quantitative estimates of these variables were considered to be less appropriate owing to the uncertainty presented by future GCM projections with regard to rainfall and the apparent large variations in the runoff outputs generated by the ACRU-NPS model using GCM-derived input (Table 4.6 and Figure 4.8). Therefore, qualitative analyses were deemed more appropriate as they give a more holistic representation of the potential future changes in simulated variables and highlight relative changes better than quantitative assessments which are, admittedly, only as accurate and relevant as the modelling assumptions applied. To add further clarity to the analyses, percentage changes, calculated by subtracting the future value of a variable from the present value of the same variable and dividing by the present value of the variable, were also included in these analyses.
116
Unlike the ratio-based approach, in the percent change approach a positive percentage change suggests an increasing trend in the variable while a “negative” percentage change suggests a declining trend in the variable.
The potential impacts of climate change on mean annual runoff, nutrient loads and sediment yield are indicated in Table 4.7 for all downscaled GCMs considered and in Figures 4.9 and 4.10 for the CSIR and CSAG downscaled GCMs, respectively. Table 4.7 presents the ratios of change, as described above, between the future and the present for each water quality variable considered. Figures 4.9 and 4.10 show the potential impacts of both climate change and the potential impacts of the wetland under climate change (i.e. under future conditions) on the generation and transfer of the WQ variables considered. In Figures 4.9 and 4.10, the impacts of climate change (“Impact CC”) are represented by the future versus present changes in wetland inflows. The combined impacts of climate change and the wetland (“Impact CC and Wetland) are represented as future wetland outflows versus present wetland inflows. Table 4.7 and Figures 4.9 and 4.10 show that 4 out the 7 downscaled GCMs considered project increases in runoff, nutrients and sediment going into the wetland (ratios above 1 and positive percentage changes). These were the GDFL2.1, MRI, IPSL and CSIRO GCMs. However, 3 of these GCMs viz. the MIROC, ECH5 and ECHO GCMs, project decreases (albeit small decreases) in runoff, nutrients and sediment.
For the GCMs downscaled by the CSIR, the GFDL2.1 GCM projects increased runoff going into the wetland (positive percentage change) while the MIROC GCM projects decreased runoff going into the wetland. As a consequence of the combined impacts of climate change and the wetland, a general decreasing trend (negative percentage change) in wetland outflow was observed for the MIROC GCM. Under climate change, the GFDL2.1 GCM indicates positive but minimal change with regard to nutrients and sediment. The MIROC GCM, conversely, shows decreasing trends with regard to nutrients and sediment generated from upstream HRUs. In all instances, however, the role of the wetland is much greater than the impact of climate change and results in overall decreases in nutrients and sediments (Figure 4.11). Although the simulations project increases in runoff for most of the GCMs under climate change and also point to the potential increase in the generation of sediment and nutrients, the downstream transfer of these variables is mitigated to a high degree by the wetland.
117
Most of the CSAG downsc aled GCMs indi cated posi tive c hanges with regard to runoff, nutrients and sediment (Figure 4.12) under future conditions. The exceptions to these trends were the ECHO and ECH5 GCMs which indicated negligible decreases in runoff (5.44% and 2.5% respectively) between the future and the present. These GCMs also indicated decreases in nitrogen and sediment and negligible change in phosphorus. Ratios of change greater than 1 and positive percentage changes were observed for all other GCMs (Table 4.7 and Figure 4.12). The va rious GCMs indi cated large v ariations in projected run off, nutrients and sediment. For instance, the IPSL GCM suggested increases in runoff of up to 95%, while the MRI GCM suggested i ncreases of only 22%, and in the sa me sense the C SIRO GCM suggested incr eases of up to 71%. This, as it is evident, r epresents a lar ge a mount o f disagreement between these GCMs.
Figure 4.11 Impact of climate change and climate change combined with the wetland on mean annual runoff, sediment yield, nitrogen load and phosphorus load for the CSIR downscaled GCMs.
118
Regardless of these variations, the majority of the CSAG downscaled GCMs indicated the same direction of change, which was a generally increasing trend in the generation of runoff, nitrogen, phosphorus and sediment under climate change. It has been mentioned before that GCMs are highly uncertain and they are not always expected to explicitly reproduce the exact time series variations of point scale rainfall and, consequently, that of local scale runoff. It was, therefore, considered highly critical that the focus of these analyses be on the variability and relative changes presented by the downscaled GCM projections rather than on the absolute (i.e. quantitative) estimates that they project. Although there was consensus amongst the CSAG GCMs regarding the direction of change in WQ variables (i.e. nutrients and sediment), there was limited agreement between these GCMs as to the magnitude of change of these WQ variables (Table 4.7).
Nearly all CSAG GCMs show that the generation of runoff and associated WQ variables will increase under future conditions of change, but there are significant variations between the GCMs regarding these increases. A closer inspection of mean annual precipitation was undertaken in an attempt to isolate and describe these trends. MAP changes indicated neutral to slight increases, yet runoff changes range from neutral to large increases (Table 4.7).
Downscaled GCMs projecting large runoff increases, thus, indicate a change in the distribution of rainfall (e.g. at seasonal or daily levels) which results in a lot more runoff from the same total rainfall. Some GCMs (e.g. ECHO, ECH5 and MRI) show reductions in sediment and nitrogen. These are GCMs that also project minimal change in annual runoff (save for the MRI GCM) – again this suggests changes in the distribution of the rainfall, this time in the opposite manner (less concentrated/intense rainfall). These variations were considered critical in these analyses primarily for the fact that the CSAG downscaled GCM projections were considered to best represent the Mkabela Catchment with respect to climatic variability. To gain a better understanding of these variations in runoff and WQ variables, it is important that the nature of the changes in daily rainfall (as the main “driver” of these trends) under climate change be fully detailed. Chapter 5 presents a more detailed analysis of the correlations between observed and GCM-derived rainfall.
119
Table 4.7 Ratios of future to present mean annual precipitation, runoff, nutrients and sediment for all downscaled GCM projections.
RATIOS OF CHANGE*
MAP RUNOFF SEDIMENT NITROGEN PHOSPHORUS
DOWNSCALED GCM
GDFL2.1 1.05 1.29 1.00 1.04 1.05
MIROC 0.89 0.89 0.62 0.76 0.73
CSIRO 1.08 1.71 1.60 1.10 1.40
ECHO 1.04 0.95 0.75 0.91 1.27
IPSL 1.01 1.95 2.85 1.34 1.36
ECH5 1.00 0.97 0.92 0.73 1.00
MRI 1.04 1.22 1.23 0.99 1.24
*As ratio of future to present
120
Figure 4.12 Impact of climate change and climate change combined with the wetland on mean annual runoff, sediment yield, nitrogen load and phosphorus load for the CSAG downscaled GCMs.
Runoff
ECH5 ECH5
ECHO ECHO
• CC & Wetland
MRI • CC & Wetland
MRI
IPSl IPSl
CSIRO
CSIRO
·150.00 ·100.00 ·50.00 0.00 50.00 100.00 150.00 200.00
·100.00 ·50.00 0.00 50.00 100.00 150.00
%Change %Change
Nitrogen Phosphorus
ECH5 ECH5
ECHO ECHO
MRI • CC & Wetland • CC & Wetland
MRI
. CC . CC
IPSl IPSl
CSIRO CSIRO
·100.00 ·80.00 ·60.00 ·40.00 ·20.00 0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 ·100.00 ·80.00 ·60.00 ·40.00 ·20.00 0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00
%Change %Change
121