CHAPTER 4: PAST AND FUTURE CLIMATE TRENDS AGAINST WOMEN’S CLIMATE
4.4 Women’s perceptions of climate change (based on temperature and rainfall)
According to Deressa (2010) climate change adaptation is a two stage process. The first stage is climate change perception and the second is adaptation which is dependent on whether a person perceived climatic changes or not. Perceptions are considered to be among the factors that influence successful adaptation strategies (Tesfahunegn et al., 2016). This study assessed women’s perception of climate change and associated impacts (chapter five). During a FGD perceptions were sought by means of matrix scoring their experiences of long-term changes in temperature and rainfall. Both variables (temperature and rainfall) could be perceived as increased, decreased, seasonal changes observed or no changes. Women’s perceptions were assessed using a marital lens. The researcher postulated that, marital status would influence climate change perception among women. Table 4.4.1.1 below depicts women’s experience of climatic changes in the past 30 to 50 years.
4.4.1 Past climate change perception
Table 4.4.1.1: Matrix scoring for past climate change perception among women in Ndwedwe-Cibane (n=6 single and n=11 married women)
Perception of past climate Score
Single Married
Temperature Rainfall Temperature Rainfall
Increase 11111 1 11111111111 111111
Decrease 1 11111 11111
Seasonal changes
No change
88 All participants perceived changes in climate variables in the first FGD (table 4.4.1.1). Disaggregation of perceptions by marital status revealed that the majority of single women observed a long-term increase in temperature and a decrease in rainfall amount. Of the married women, the majority also perceived an increasing temperature trend and contrary to single women an increasing rainfall trend. To confirm claims of decreased rainfall a single women shared that, “rain has decreased and may not be around in the coming years”. In support of increased rainfall a married women reiterated that “there is rain however it timing has changed and arrives unexpectedly and is heavy rainfall. In the past rain used to come in August and now it does not”. Another married women noted that, “It is March, we are approaching winter yet we get water from the river”, she further added that, “at the moment water is not scarce because it rains and we have jojo tanks outside that store rain water”. Conversely, in support of decreased rainfall a married woman shared that “There is no rain, small compared to when we were growing up”. Evidence of decreased rainfall according to the woman was the low water level in the river.
Women identified August as the period for onset of rainfall in the study area. In addition they shared that there is a change in timing of rains and expanded that they were approaching winter yet it was still raining, the river water level was fair and jojo tanks were full and that this was not normal. Therefore, rainfall was less predictable and deviates from the previously known pattern. Women’s perception of temperature change did not seem to vary with marital status. This is probably because they play the same if not similar roles and responsibilities within their homesteads and community and this in turn affects their perception. However, rainfall perception varied. Based on the Lorenzoni and Langford (2001) set of typologies on climate change perception, the majority of women are in the study area are ‘engaged’.
Women’s long-term perceptions of temperature and rainfall change in Ndwedwe-Cibane were compared to local meteorological data. Previous studies have recognized consistency between local’s perceptions and meteorological data (Savo et al., 2016). Single and married women demonstrated high perception when past temperature (figure 4.2.1.1 and 4.2.1.2) data were compared to their perception since both indicated increasing temperature trends. Women’s temperature perception is comparable with the worldview on climate change. Therefore women in Ndwedwe-Cibane are aware of climate change. The Chief conformed to women’s perception and relayed that “too much sun, rain we do not know it anymore. Drought has been a problem”.
Contrary to high temperature perception, single and married women demonstrated low perception when past rainfall data were compared to their perception. Single and married women’s rainfall perceptions are not only divergent from each other as established but also from rainfall data. Women either indicated that rainfall has decreased (mainly single women) or increased (mainly married women) while data
89 reveals no significant rainfall trend but showed high inter-annual variability (figure 4.2.2.1). With reference to perceived decreasing rainfall, the difference between women’s perceptions and rainfall data may be due to a stronger influence of recent droughts (reduced rainfall amount) for example the 2015 and 2016 droughts rather than long term patterns. This has been a major factor in previous studies by Van et al. (2015) and Zampaligré et al. (2014). Thomas et al. (2007), assert that perceptions are in part based on past observation, however it has been noted that people place greater emphasis on recent climate events to inform their perceptions as opposed to long-term climate changes. In addition, increased evapotranspiration and demand on available water as a result of increasing temperature may also explain women’s perceived decreasing rainfall (Hitayezu, 2015). Inaccurate perception of increasing rainfall by mostly married women may be explained by the availability of water even if though it has not rained (Niles and Mueller, 2016). Van et al. (2015) found that in Vietnam, perceived increasing rainfall is attributed to high reliance on irrigation, which lowers farmers’ risk perception associated with reduction in rainfall amount.
To elaborate, Savo et al. (2016) have suggested that a number of factors contribute to the discrepancy between local’s perception of rainfall and meteorological data. Firstly, it is the potential mismatch in time scale of comparison. While meteorological data could be for a period of 50 years, people’s perceptions which should also represent 50 years may in fact represent a shorter or longer time frame.
Secondly, it is the potential mismatch in the spatial scale and resolution of the rainfall data. People’s perceptions are based on local observations while rainfall data maybe based on broader patterns of change. Thirdly, changes in other factors other than rainfall could contribute to the perceived decreasing rainfall. For example changes in rainfall timing through late onset rather than on the amount of annual rainfall can affect crops in ways similar to decreasing rainfall (Amadou et al. 2015; Savo et al., 2016).
Assoumana et al. (2016) observed discrepancies between perceptions and meteorological data and attributed them to limited human capacity to record climate trends over long time periods and the influence of the media. According to Deressa et al. (2009), climate change perception may not be based on actual climate conditions but may be determined by environmental and socio-economic factors such as age, caste, social capital and agro-ecological setting among other factors. Discrepancies between women’s perceptions and meteorological data have implications for readiness to adapt to climate change impacts (Mulenga and Wineman, 2014).
In the second FGD the woman who had perceived long-term temperature decrease, changed her view and shared that temperature had in fact increased. Additionally, the nuanced views on rainfall seen in the matrix scoring were not repeated. Women who had indicated that they had observed increasing rainfall over the past decades were quiet and were reluctant to express this view. Suddenly, everyone was in agreement that rainfall had decreased. Could this be the effect of group think? Mertz et al. (2009)
90 observed that in a group it is not easy to challenge established local and international narratives of decreasing rainfall. The results are also comparable with Ogalleh et al. (2012) study in East Africa, Laikipia County whereby farmers perceived increasing air temperature, declining rainfall amount and unpredictable rainfall pattern.
4.4.2 Will the current climate trends persist?
When asked if the observed trend would persist, the majority of single women indicated that the perceived trend would remain the same. Temperature would increase and rainfall would decrease. In the FGD a woman shared that “rain falls hurriedly at the moment but will decrease in the future”. Another woman said “rain would decrease but the problem is inkanyamba that brings rain, the snake comes with rain, houses fall, it is outside of the water, water has dried up, so we should expect heavy rainfall until the snake finds a place since water bodies are dry”. Of the married women a great majority noted an increasing trend in temperature, while the minority felt there would be no change in temperature in the future. With regards to rainfall changes women provided inconsistent accounts. An equal number of women indicated that rainfall would increase and decrease in the future. A woman who was of the view that rain would decrease shared that “rain will decrease in the future because in the river we can now see big boulders which were submerged”.
Overall both single and married women anticipate that the current trend would persist. Most of the women agree that temperature will increase and there are differences in views based on marital status with regards to predicted changes in rainfall. When asked about future climate changes, the Chief was hesitant to answer this question and found it challenging. At first he asserted, “awukwazi ukuqamba ingane ingakazalwa” (you cannot name a child before s/he is born). On second thought he shared “five years ago there was a storm all the houses you see were rebuilt. We had drought but when the rain comes back we do not enjoy it. There was a time where people’s houses were fetched from the road.
There was a dark cloud during the day, clouds with rain caused a storm people lost their lives. There are houses without parents because of the incident because the rain comes once hurriedly after a long drought”. The Chief’s answer highlights climate variability and the unpredictability of the weather.