The research reported in this dissertation/thesis is my own original research, except where otherwise noted. ii). Conclusion: I then conclude the research by concluding that the Bosch project has a positive future when viewed through the lens of the sugar industry, regardless of what uncertainties materialize, but there are key issues that the company needs to address in order to be prepared for any any of the possibilities.
CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION
What does the future of the sugar industry look like in the next ten years, seen through S.P. The results of the study could also help other consulting organizations that want to enter the sugar industry.
CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW
These schools argue that strategy should be explicit in order to be effective and specific. The core of the strategy formulation is the desire to be able to predict the future, so that the organization can better respond to the future environment. In the next section, I will argue that scenario planning is the hybrid strand that allows this rapid shift and adaptation to be a less painful process.
Scenario planning is considered the broadest and most thorough methodology for imagining the future. A scenario planning facilitator must act ethically and avoid unethical preparation of scenario planning participants and users of the scenarios. Therefore, it is imperative that a scenario planning team is multi-disciplinary to avoid one-sided thinking.
Taking this line of thought further, I argue that due to the complexity associated with implementing strategy, it becomes clear that it is imperative for those involved in the organization to be comfortable with uncertainty and not fear turbulence. Identifying goals: To determine where the organization wants to be in the future.
CHAPTER 3: RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
The robustness of the scenarios developed during the scenario planning exercise would then be tested by applying a questionnaire technique to gauge perceptions from the sugar industry and whether these matched issues raised by Bosch Projects. The processes of the sugar industry: The sugar industry was only intended to be used as a supplier of external things that I could use to test the accuracy of Bosch Projects' things. This was supplemented by having them actively think about BP's SWOT, in addition to that of the sugar industry.
To help reform the sugar industry, I decided to draw a rich picture that I would use to create a narrative about the status of the sugar industry. The scenario development phase had two explicit stages in relation to the creation of the storylines. The judgments and decisions made during the first session reflected my misunderstanding of the scenario planning session.
This was done with caution, as I did not want to change the essence and theme of the stories developed with the participants. The age range of the eleven sugar industry participants who responded to the questionnaires was between 35 and 50 years.
CHAPTER 4: RESEARCH ANALYSIS AND FINDINGS
From these scenarios I will answer the first two and the last of the five research questions and their implications for research participants. In the following sections I will also analyze the data, draw obvious conclusions and then highlight hidden conclusions which can only be seen through in-depth analysis of the data obtained during the research as recommended. This analysis was also informed by the many discussions I had with sugar industry participants during the interviewing and analysis of the primer questionnaires.
Rich photography was not used with any of the research participants, but it was a tool I used for myself in order to distill and summarize the issues affecting the sugar industry to understand myself. I could also refer to it on a regular basis as I analyzed the various data packages collected and also when reviewing and revising the scripts developed at various stages of the research. I will start this section by providing a rich overview and then continue the discussion by providing the results of the SWOT factors in tabular format.
When analyzing the factors, it became clear that there was a misunderstanding with some participants about how the SWOT factors should be combined. The following table is a compilation of the factors provided, and without reassigning the factors I have compiled the current state of the industry.
SWOT Analysis
How does the future of the sugar industry look in the next ten years; when viewed through S.P?
They must be more proactive in issues such as ethanol, production of green fuels and cogeneration. Some respondents blamed one of the sugar mill companies for casting doubt on using sugarcane as a source of ethanol production. Their argument was that sugar production is dependent on the sucrose content of the sugar cane, while ethanol is not sugar cane quality sensitive.
Therefore, one milling company not interested in ethanol production was concerned about the security of sugarcane supply if the crop was allowed to be used for ethanol production. This organization is said to be responsible for discouraging the government from allowing sugarcane to be used as an ethanol production source. I believe this is where organizations like SASA and SASTA can play a big role and make a positive difference by presenting the truth to the relevant stakeholders to ensure the sugar industry gets the best deal and opportunities available.
In my opinion, whoever decides to lead the pack and take advantage of the current untapped opportunities will reap great rewards. Cane farmers must push for the use of sugarcane for ethanol production as it is in their best interest.
How does the future of BP look in the next ten years; when viewed through S.P?
The industry cannot base its business case solely on government protection and EU preferential tariffs, as these measures have an unknown lifespan.
Relative to traditional strategy making methodologies; how do these organizations view SP?
This division has a number of innovative, easy-to-maintain designs (vertical crystallizer, mixed juice heaters, etc.) and has begun to roll them out to the industry as younger plant managers are more receptive to new designs. SP was seen as a participatory and democratic methodology that recognizes that there is more than one possible future and that we must be ready for more than one of them. Is Bosch Projects sufficiently qualified to develop meaningful scenarios for the sugar industry, taking into account that this is their largest market and that there are a number of them?
In this chapter I presented the thinking from Bosch Projects and from the sugar industry. This culminated in three major scenarios of the sugar industry and three mini-scenarios of Bosch Projects. The BP scenarios were too high and did not seem to add any value regardless of whether they were considered "decision driven" or "vision driven".
This error was a reflection of the time available to develop them, so I revisited them individually and tried to make them more meaningful. The sugar industry's scenarios were more thorough; this is a reflection of the time it took to put them together and the commitment between me and the research participants. It is clear on closer inspection that BP scenarios contain elements that also come up in sugar industry scenarios, but this session was flawed as we chose to develop optimistic, pessimistic and status quo scenarios.
Applying the four-grid method during the sugar industry session led to places where none of the participants, myself included, had thought, thus echoing the importance of scenario planning as a tool to question and reframe mindsets and worldviews. Comments from respondents revealed that their mental models “held them hostage”; since most of them knew that there was more than one possible future, but because of what business schools taught them, in line with the prescriptive schools, they developed only one strategy for what they thought was the most likely future.
CHAPTER 5: CONCLUSION
I had an expectation that the facilitation process would be easy, but in retrospect, looking at the BP scenarios, I quickly learned that poor facilitation can mislead the scenario planning participants, and the result would likely be scenarios that don't trigger the right questions for the end user and therefore be meaningless. When looking at or creating long-term scenarios, it is advisable to create sub-periods in the storylines to help the end user bridge how we move from now to the end state of the scenario. Scenario planning is one of the most simple yet extremely powerful strategy formulation techniques that can help businesses become more competitive in an unpredictable landscape.
People's mental models of how strategy formulation should occur have the potential to prevent them from gaining the full benefits of scenario planning. Scenario planning is better because it explores different scenarios based on future possibilities, rather than a traditional framework strategy based on some industry standards or some case study metrics. There is room for the sugar industry to branch out into ethanol production and therefore BP can start aligning itself with companies that have a proven track record in providing ethanol production technologies.
I would recommend that the sugar industry and its supporting industries conduct a scenario planning session to gain insight and an understanding of the possible landscape under which they can operate in the long term. It is with this reason in mind that I also recommend that first-time scenario planning facilitators should conduct a few test-driving sessions to avoid delivering scenarios that do not add value to the end user, which may result in potential customer rejection . to the scenario planning methodology.
