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SOUTH AFRICA’S
ENERGY TRANSITION:
An overall analysis
THE ENERGY TRANSITION | THEME
The Department of Journalism at the University of Stellenbosch recently hosted a Media Futures Seminar, titled “The future of energy: Eskom, sustainability and the media”. One
of the invited speakers was Aradhna Pandarum, acting research group leader for the Energy Centre at the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR). She provided
an overview of what is required for South Africa to make a just transition to renewable energy resources. This article is based on her presentation at the seminar.
Currently, the South African energy sector is significantly extractive and heavily reliant on fossil fuels. Approximately 80% of South Africa’s energy was derived from fossil fuels last year.
There is a range of challenges that are continuously being experienced in the electricity sector that are resulting in a number of negative consequences which have subsequently led to the energy crisis that the country faces now. These challenges include ageing and poorly performing coal-fired power stations, lack of policy certainty i.e. an updated and relevant integrated resource plan, an integrated energy plan and a gas utilization master plan, a growing infrastructure backlog required for operations and maintenance activities, delays in implementation of mega-build programmes including the renewables projects as part of the renewable energy independent power producer procurement programme (REIPPPP), primary energy challenges including volatility of fuel prices, dependency on imported fuels such as diesel, Eskom financial challenges, and a failing municipal electricity distribution business model.
Apart from these challenges we have a global obligation, via the pledges made in the Paris Agreement, to move towards the reduction of the country’s greenhouse gas emissions.
Although the country has coal reserves for the next 140 to 300 years, gas for 60 to 100 years and oil for 40 to 60 years, Climate Change is a life-threatening challenge. South Africa is the 12th largest GHG (green house gas) emitter, however, the country contribution is approximately 0.4% of the total global emissions.
However, Africa is set to warm twice as fast as other parts of the globe and millions of people’s livelihoods are threatened by Climate Change impacts. South Africa has already experienced this with the flooding in KwaZulu- Natal, Eastern Cape and more recently the Western Cape.
National political intent to move to a low-carbon energy- intensive future has been made clear through the National Development Plan, nationally determined contribution targets and integrated resource plans. The country will also put in regulatory measures for the decarbonisation of other energy sub-sectors besides the electricity A solar power station near Clanwilliam in the Western Cape.
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THEME | THE ENERGY TRANSITION
sector. This includes decarbonisation of the transport, heat and other hard-to-abate sectors. Subsequently the country’s future energy mix consists of a host of different technologies (Figure 1).
Towards a Just Transition
It is understood that while the country understands the need to transition and has been working towards this already, the transition must be one that is just and leaves nobody behind.
In fact, the country should use this as an opportunity to improve the socio-economic status of the country and its people. The country has the triple challenge of
Figure 1: A CSIR analysis on the future South African energy landscape (CSIR, flaticon.com)
unemployment, inequality and poverty with the highest unemployment rate AND inequality rate in the world.
For a Just Transition to be a success, it must have left no one behind. Decisions made on selected pathways and technologies should be all-encompassing of not only technical feasibility and prospects for environmental impacts and benefits but also social and economic imperatives of the implementation.
All aspects that should be considered within these various dimensions are summarized in Figure 2. The country should aim at creating sustainable, high-paying and long-term job opportunities and enterprise development from the significant infrastructure projects that are envisaged for the
country.
Although renewable energy can create job opportunities, it is argued whether these job opportunities form part of the criteria above.
Many plants have been built in the Northern Cape and Western Cape due to the highest solar and wind resource potential, respectively, however, the national transmission grid has very little to no grid capacity available in those areas and it would potentially take Eskom 7 to 10 years to upgrade that portion of the transmission network. If you were an employee in those provinces working on renewable energy projects, you may need to move to other provinces for consistent job opportunities in the field or consider something else, which is not very Wind turbine in a wheat field in the Western Cape.
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THE ENERGY TRANSITION | THEME
Figure 2: Dimensions and associated aspects considered for selection of technologies for a Just Transition (CSIR Analysis) practical. Therefore, these considerations must be made
when showing the potential of various technologies and pathways. Skills development should be at the heart of this Just Transition if the country wants to benefit from these opportunities.
REIPPPP has been active for over 11 years now and only last year the first technical vocational education and training (TVET) college course for renewable energy was initiated in the country. This shows that we are significantly behind
in developing an ecosystem that can provide the country with a socio-economic, sustainable and just energy future.
The CSIR is working very hard to try and highlight these challenges as well as bring solutions to the table but we do call on collaborators with the same vision so we can go further together.
Article written by Aradhna Pandarum, acting research group leader for the Energy Centre at the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR).
• Costs
• Performance
• Electricity tariffs
• Grid impacts and stability
Technical
• Health
• Quality of life
community ownership and participation
• Crime and socal pathologies
Social
• GDP
• Jobs
• Economic diversification
• Skills development
• Capacity building
• Public spending Economic
• GHG emissions
• Water use
• Land use
• Air quality
• Bio-diversity Environmental
Tshiimiswa tsha vho ramafhungo gudedzini la Stellenbosch lovha na vhutambo ha media future maduvhani a si gathi, zwine zwa vhidzwa upfi ‘vhumatshelo ha mannda’ Eskom sustainability na media. Vhanwe vha zwiambi zwezwa rambiwa ndi vho Aradhna Pandarum vhane vhavha mudzula tshidulo pfareli vha energy centre kha council for scientific and industrial research{ CSIR}. Vhone vho neya samari ya zwine zwa kho todea uri shango li shandukisa mannda a dovhe a shumiseye.
Translated into Venda by Zwannda Charles Ramukumba.
Academy of Science of South Africa (ASSAf)
ASSAf Research Repository http://research.assaf.org.za/
A. Academy of Science of South Africa (ASSAf) Publications D. Quest: Science for South Africa
