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Lampiran 1.Data model keragaan ekonomi kedelai Indonesia tahun 1983-2011
TAHUN LAP PRV PKD PJG PBN PTP PKI JIM
1983 639880 0.84 202 94 284 231 164.03 324442 1984 858850 0.90 271 83 289 247 148.92 606755 1985 896220 0.97 276 83 269 242 113.01 498197 1986 1253770 0.98 302 86 309 271 99.18 672355 1987 1100570 1.05 317 98 316 254 93.95 543702 1988 1177360 1.08 295 101 333 270 122.32 537962 1989 1198100 1.10 272 100 317 259 104.15 534849 1990 1334100 1.11 530 223 771 590 189.80 546313 1991 1368200 1.14 865 323 929 857 243.63 866105 1992 1665710 1.12 801 307 1009 802 222.75 864859 1993 1468316 1.16 861 302 1023 790 219.83 1085032 1994 1406038 1.11 886 330 1007 796 200.12 1299057 1995 1476284 1.14 738 362 934 751 188.25 1289282 1996 1277736 1.19 735 355 1653 763 205.09 1692440 1997 1118140 1.21 732 353 1816 777 186.43 1535745 1998 1094262 1.19 2081 857 2097 1586 191.52 1030780 1999 1151079 1.20 1562 852 1888 1555 124.40 2226467 2000 824484 1.23 1766 872 1851 1604 125.92 2574001 2001 678848 1.22 1740 932 1862 1596 104.48 2224712 2002 544522 1.24 1684 955 1973 1471 101.42 1365252 2003 526796 1.27 1676 778 1884 1467 118.11 2773668 2004 565155 1.28 4714 1877 6903 3865 338.54 2881735 2005 621541 1.30 4881 1896 6376 3876 274.59 2982986 2006 580534 1.29 4493 1913 6322 3568 237.53 3279257 2007 459116 1.29 4492 2186 7296 3812 319.10 1440926 2008 590956 1.31 8046 3367 7771 5854 492.74 1203035 2009 722791 1.35 9408 4297 9432 7162 475.01 1343009 2010 660823 1.37 8776 4773 9108 6891 465.12 1772663 2011 622254 1.37 8651 5237 8418 7120 461.15 2125511
Lampiran 1. Lanjutan
TAHUN PRD CON EXR TIM PUR PNB PKB
1983 536100 715000 2011 10 54 337.86 396.91 1984 769380 1041000 2347 10 51 295.65 466.78 1985 869720 1052000 2567 10 50 266.90 480.32 1986 1226730 1466000 3119 10 50 252.20 569.14 1987 1160960 1305000 4159 10 55 226.44 584.20 1988 1270420 1646000 4431 10 55 217.64 669.30 1989 1315110 1562000 4721 10 64 212.09 684.81 1990 1487430 1910000 2304 10 166 476.91 767.37 1991 1555450 1995000 1768 10 231 630.48 843.11 1992 1869710 2332000 1919 10 233 643.18 847.92 1993 1707126 2206000 2104 10 227 698.06 917.20 1994 1564179 2131000 2311 5 232 707.26 1002.25 1995 1679092 2138000 2568 5 231 726.13 1033.96 1996 1515937 2182000 2809 5 253 746.83 1114.63 1997 1356108 1795000 3677 3 280 700.48 1218.53 1998 1304950 1283000 9674 0 451 527.51 2024.25 1999 1382848 2401000 9682 0 671 357.77 2520.84 2000 1017634 2141000 10473 0 805 339.09 2696.19 2001 826932 1201000 13702 0 712 362.80 2991.60 2002 673056 1833000 13655 0 668 348.12 3083.70 2003 671600 1675130 13092 15 714 407.14 3277.85 2004 723483 1641000 5383 5 1797 1203.96 3499.49 2005 808353 1704000 6251 5 1669 1230.00 3684.64 2006 747611 1585000 6465 10 1649 1228.97 4681.46 2007 592534 1599000 6667 10 1850 1337.73 6416.67 2008 775710 1729000 5997 0 2327 1837.76 7096.50 2009 974512 2019000 5605 0 3115 2348.29 6629.42 2010 907031 2358000 5605 10 3249 2585.15 6386.00 2011 851286 2626000 4999 10 2773 2875.74 6703.97
Keterangan:
LAP = Luas Area Panen Kedelai (Ha) PRV = Produktivitas (Ton/ha)
PKD = Harga Riil Kedelai Tingkat Konsumen (Rp/kg) PJG = Harga Riil Jagung (Rp/kg)
PBN = Harga Riil Benih Kedelai (Rp/kg)
PTP = Harga Riil Kedelai di Tingkat Petani (Rp/kg) PKI = Harga Riil Kedelai Impor (US$/ton)
JIM = Jumlah Impor Kedelai (Ton) PRD = Produksi Kedelai (Ton) CON = Konsumsi Kedelai (Ton)
EXR = Nilai Tukar Riil Rupiah terhadap Dolar Amerika (Rp/US$) TIM = Tarif Impor Kedelai (%)
PWO = Harga Riil Kedelai Dunia (US$/ton) PNB = Pendapatan per Kapita Riil Nasional (US$) PKB = Harga Riil Kedelai di Pedagang Besar (Rp/kg)
Lampiran 2. Program komputer estimasi parameter model keragaan ekonomi kedelai 1983-2011 menggunakan metode 2SLS dan prosedur SYSLIN dengan software SAS/ETS 9.1
OPTIONS NODATE NONUMBER;
DATA KEDELAI1; SET KEDELAI1; /*CREATE DATA*/ LLAP = LAG(LAP); LPRV = LAG(PRV); LPKD = LAG(PKD); LPKI = LAG(PKI); LJIM = LAG(JIM); LTIM = LAG(TIM); LPUR = LAG(PUR); LPJG = LAG(PJG); LCON = LAG(CON); LPKB = LAG(PKB); LPBN = LAG(PBN); LPNB = LAG(PNB); LPTP = LAG(PTP); LPRD = LAG(PRD); SKD = PRD + JIM; LSKD = LAG(SKD); /*RESPESIFIKASI*/ SPKD = PKD-LPKD; RPBN = PBN/LPBN; SSKD = SKD-LSKD; SPTP = PTP-LPTP; SCON = CON-LCON; SPKB = PKB-LPKB; SPRD = PRD-LPRD; RUN;
PROC SYSLIN SIMPLE 2SLS DATA=KEDELAI1 OUTEST=KEDELAI_C;
ENDOGENOUS LAP PRV PRD PTP CON PKD JIM PKI;
INSTRUMENTS PJG PTP PBN EXR TIM PWO PKB PNB;
MODEL LAP = SPTP LPJG LLAP/DW;
MODEL PRV = SPTP RPBN LPRV/DW;
MODEL PTP = PRD PKB CON LPKI/DW;
MODEL CON = PKD LPNB LCON/DW;
MODEL PKD = PKB SKD CON/DW;
MODEL JIM = PKI PRD CON LJIM/DW;
MODEL PKI = PWO EXR LTIM LPKI/DW;
IDENTITY PRD = PRD + 0;
Lampiran 3. Hasil estimasi parameter model keragaan ekonomi kedelai 1983-2011 menggunakan metode 2SLS dan prosedur SYSLIN dengan software SAS/ETS 9.1
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model LAP Dependent Variable LAP
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr > F Model 3 2.884E12 9.612E11 40.89 <.0001 Error 24 5.641E11 2.351E10
Corrected Total 27 3.448E12
Root MSE 153316.209 R-Square 0.83637 Dependent Mean 972948.393 Adj R-Sq 0.81592 Coeff Var 15.75790
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Intercept 1 159355.0 130292.8 1.22 0.2332 SPTP 1 32.94302 49.85218 0.66 0.5150 LPJG 1 -33.5921 28.09919 -1.20 0.2436 LLAP 1 0.862783 0.107199 8.05 <.0001 Durbin-Watson 1.890585 Number of Observations 28 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.032915
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model PRV Dependent Variable PRV
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr > F Model 3 0.381299 0.127100 206.14 <.0001 Error 24 0.014797 0.000617
Root MSE 0.02483 R-Square 0.96264 Dependent Mean 1.18464 Adj R-Sq 0.95797 Coeff Var 2.09604
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Intercept 1 0.150472 0.047157 3.19 0.0039 SPTP 1 7.514E-6 9.984E-6 0.75 0.4590 RPBN 1 -0.00524 0.010718 -0.49 0.6293 LPRV 1 0.890965 0.038210 23.32 <.0001 Durbin-Watson 2.439092 Number of Observations 28 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.22104
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model PTP Dependent Variable PTP
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr > F Model 4 1.2962E8 32405733 121.47 <.0001 Error 23 6135913 266778.8
Corrected Total 27 1.3574E8
Root MSE 516.50637 R-Square 0.95480 Dependent Mean 2110.57143 Adj R-Sq 0.94694 Coeff Var 24.47235
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Intercept 1 -1019.11 562.1417 -1.81 0.0829 PRD 1 -0.00048 0.000664 -0.73 0.4751 PKB 1 0.609562 0.125225 4.87 <.0001 CON 1 0.000314 0.000439 0.71 0.4820 LPKI 1 7.251340 1.503382 4.82 <.0001 Durbin-Watson 1.812842 Number of Observations 28 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.085635
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model CON Dependent Variable CON
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr > F Model 3 2.208E12 7.36E11 7.05 0.0015 Error 24 2.507E12 1.045E11
Corrected Total 27 4.727E12
Root MSE 323201.451 R-Square 0.46831 Dependent Mean 1805576.07 Adj R-Sq 0.40184 Coeff Var 17.90018
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Intercept 1 857825.6 258927.4 3.31 0.0029 PKD 1 -42.9694 48.54508 -0.89 0.3849 LPNB 1 394.0686 235.6654 1.67 0.1075 LCON 1 0.436827 0.158506 2.76 0.0110 Durbin-Watson 2.219005 Number of Observations 28 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.12369
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model PKD Dependent Variable PKD
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr > F Model 3 2.073E8 69101011 67.57 <.0001 Error 24 24543541 1022648
Corrected Total 27 2.3102E8
Root MSE 1011.26037 R-Square 0.89414 Dependent Mean 2566.10714 Adj R-Sq 0.88091 Coeff Var 39.40835
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Intercept 1 -1462.33 959.7215 -1.52 0.1407 PKB 1 1.208390 0.091100 13.26 <.0001 SKD 1 -0.00032 0.000298 -1.08 0.2902 CON 1 0.000957 0.000573 1.67 0.1081 Durbin-Watson 1.381884 Number of Observations 28 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.297013
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model JIM Dependent Variable JIM
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr > F Model 4 1.413E13 3.532E12 13.75 <.0001 Error 23 5.91E12 2.569E11
Corrected Total 27 1.919E13
Root MSE 506889.979 R-Square 0.70509 Dependent Mean 1492737.68 Adj R-Sq 0.65380 Coeff Var 33.95707
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Intercept 1 122673.1 572980.8 0.21 0.8324 PKI 1 -1980.39 1058.614 -1.87 0.0742 PRD 1 -1.02050 0.436767 -2.34 0.0285 CON 1 1.178804 0.368036 3.20 0.0040 LJIM 1 0.580863 0.146601 3.96 0.0006 Durbin-Watson 2.286195 Number of Observations 28 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.15477
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model PKI Dependent Variable PKI
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr > F Model 4 405687.6 101421.9 235.81 <.0001 Error 23 9892.466 430.1072
Corrected Total 27 415580.1
Root MSE 20.73903 R-Square 0.97620 Dependent Mean 220.25214 Adj R-Sq 0.97206 Coeff Var 9.41604
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Intercept 1 -43.3760 24.02291 -1.81 0.0841 PWO 1 1.122418 0.097437 11.52 <.0001 EXR 1 0.002609 0.001827 1.43 0.1667 LTIM 1 2.765444 1.618569 1.71 0.1010 LPKI 1 0.170727 0.086874 1.97 0.0616 Durbin-Watson 1.876004 Number of Observations 28 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.04601
Lampiran 4. Hasil uji multikolinearitas menggunakan nilai VIF dan uji heterokedastisitas menggunakan uji white dengan software SAS/ETS 9.1
The SAS System The REG Procedure
Model: MODEL1 Dependent Variable: LAP
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr > F Model 3 2.883528E12 9.611761E11 40.89 <.0001 Error 24 5.641406E11 23505859935
Corrected Total 27 3.447669E12
Root MSE 153316 R-Square 0.8364 Dependent Mean 972948 Adj R-Sq 0.8159 Coeff Var 15.75790
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variance Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Inflation Intercept 1 159355 130293 1.22 0.2332 0 SPTP 1 32.94302 49.85218 0.66 0.5150 1.17129 LPJG 1 -33.59209 28.09919 -1.20 0.2436 1.48148 LLAP 1 0.86278 0.10720 8.05 <.0001 1.67960
Test of First and Second Moment Specification DF Chi-Square Pr > ChiSq
9 5.73 0.7664 The SAS System
The REG Procedure Model: MODEL2 Dependent Variable: PRV
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr > F Model 3 0.38130 0.12710 206.14 <.0001 Error 24 0.01480 0.00061656
Corrected Total 27 0.39610
Root MSE 0.02483 R-Square 0.9626 Dependent Mean 1.18464 Adj R-Sq 0.9580 Coeff Var 2.09604
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variance Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Inflation Intercept 1 0.15047 0.04716 3.19 0.0039 0 SPTP 1 0.00000751 0.00000998 0.75 0.4590 1.79107 RPBN 1 -0.00524 0.01072 -0.49 0.6293 1.64775 LPRV 1 0.89097 0.03821 23.32 <.0001 1.11411
Test of First and Second Moment Specification DF Chi-Square Pr > ChiSq
9 6.93 0.6440 The SAS System
The REG Procedure Model: MODEL3 Dependent Variable: PTP
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr > F Model 4 129668828 32417207 122.78 <.0001 Error 23 6072515 264022
Corrected Total 27 135741343
Root MSE 513.83109 R-Square 0.9553 Dependent Mean 2110.57143 Adj R-Sq 0.9475 Coeff Var 24.34559
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variance Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Inflation Intercept 1 -816.83756 535.55797 -1.53 0.1408 0 PRD 1 -0.00050894 0.00058642 -0.87 0.3944 4.87137 PKB 1 0.59934 0.11699 5.12 <.0001 7.04034 CON 1 0.00019225 0.00038198 0.50 0.6195 2.61257 LPKI 1 7.60587 1.53521 4.95 <.0001 3.19182
Test of First and Second Moment Specification DF Chi-Square Pr > ChiSq 14 6.41 0.9549
The SAS System The REG Procedure
Model: MODEL4 Dependent Variable: CON
Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr > F
Model 3 2.220816E12 7.402721E11 7.09 0.0014 Error 24 2.506597E12 1.044415E11
Corrected Total 27 4.727413E12
Root MSE 323174 R-Square 0.4698 Dependent Mean 1805576 Adj R-Sq 0.4035 Coeff Var 17.89867
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variance Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Inflation Intercept 1 861395 259069 3.32 0.0028 0 PKD 1 -46.04490 48.40174 -0.95 0.3509 5.18205 LPNB 1 407.59419 235.26754 1.73 0.0960 5.68548 LCON 1 0.43341 0.15867 2.73 0.0116 1.23253
Test of First and Second Moment Specification DF Chi-Square Pr > ChiSq
9 5.24 0.8127 The SAS System
The REG Procedure Model: MODEL5 Dependent Variable: PKD
Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr > F
Model 3 206607480 68869160 67.70 <.0001 Error 24 24414430 1017268
Corrected Total 27 231021911
Root MSE 1008.59701 R-Square 0.8943 Dependent Mean 2566.10714 Adj R-Sq 0.8811 Coeff Var 39.30456
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variance Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Inflation Intercept 1 -1242.03439 921.40663 -1.35 0.1903 0 PKB 1 1.21393 0.09062 13.40 <.0001 1.09638 SKD 1 -0.00028236 0.00029389 -0.96 0.3462 1.29562 CON 1 0.00076881 0.00052833 1.46 0.1586 1.29717
Test of First and Second Moment Specification DF Chi-Square Pr > ChiSq
9 16.27 0.0614 The SAS System
The REG Procedure Model: MODEL6 Dependent Variable: JIM
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr > F Model 4 1.345889E13 3.364721E12 13.50 <.0001 Error 23 5.730827E12 2.491664E11
Corrected Total 27 1.918971E13
Root MSE 499166 R-Square 0.7014 Dependent Mean 1492738 Adj R-Sq 0.6494 Coeff Var 33.43961
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variance Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Inflation Intercept 1 88758 549516 0.16 0.8731 0 PKI 1 -1497.60191 987.95109 -1.52 0.1432 1.62793 PRD 1 -0.73666 0.40218 -1.83 0.0800 2.42785 CON 1 0.91838 0.32429 2.83 0.0094 1.99531 LJIM 1 0.63505 0.14286 4.45 0.0002 1.64128
Test of First and Second Moment Specification DF Chi-Square Pr > ChiSq 14 10.24 0.7447
The SAS System The REG Procedure
Model: MODEL7 Dependent Variable: PKI
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr > F Model 4 405688 101422 235.81 <.0001 Error 23 9892.46643 430.10724
Corrected Total 27 415580
Root MSE 20.73903 R-Square 0.9762 Dependent Mean 220.25214 Adj R-Sq 0.9721 Coeff Var 9.41604
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variance Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Inflation Intercept 1 -43.37601 24.02291 -1.81 0.0841 0 PWO 1 1.12242 0.09744 11.52 <.0001 5.34694 EXR 1 0.00261 0.00183 1.43 0.1667 2.78881 LTIM 1 2.76544 1.61857 1.71 0.1010 3.42899 LPKI 1 0.17073 0.08687 1.97 0.0616 6.27397
Test of First and Second Moment Specification DF Chi-Square Pr > ChiSq 14 9.07 0.8264
Lampiran 5. Program komputer validasi model ekonomi kedelai Indonesia 1983-2011 menggunakan metode NEWTON dan prosedur SIMLIN dengan software SAS/ETS 9.1
OPTIONS NODATE NONUMBER;
DATA KEDELAI1; SET KEDELAI1; /*CREATE DATA*/
LLAP = LAG(LAP); LPJG = LAG(PJG); LPRV = LAG(PRV); LCON = LAG(CON); LPKD = LAG(PKD); LPBN = LAG(PBN); LPKI = LAG(PKI); LPNB = LAG(PNB); LJIM = LAG(JIM); LPTP = LAG(PTP); LTIM = LAG(TIM); SKD = PRD + JIM; /*RESPESIFIKASI*/
RPBN = PBN/LPBN; SPTP = PTP-LPTP; RUN;
PROC SIMNLIN DATA=KEDELAI1 DYNAMIC SIMULATE STAT OUTPREDICT THEIL
OUT=B0;
ENDOGENOUS LAP PRV PRD PTP CON PKD JIM PKI; INSTRUMENTS PJG PTP PBN EXR TIM PWO PUR PNB; PARM A0 159355.0 A1 32.94302 A2 -33.5921 A3 0.862783 B0 0.150472 B1 7.514E-6 B2 -0.00524 B3 0.890965 C0 -1019.11 C1 -0.00048 C2 0.609562 C3 0.000314 C4 7.251340 D0 857825.6 D1 -42.9694 D2 394.0686 D3 0.436827 E0 -1462.33 E1 1.208390 E2 -0.00032 E3 0.000957 F0 122673.1 F1 -1980.39 F2 -1.02050 F3 1.178804 F4 0.580863 G0 -43.3760 G1 1.122418 G2 0.002609 G3 2.765444 G4 0.170727; LAP = A0 + A1*(PTP-LPTP) + A2*LPJG + A3*LLAP; PRV = B0 + B1*(PTP-LPTP) + B2*(PBN/LPBN) + B3*LPRV;
PTP = C0 + C1*PRD + C2*PKB + C3*CON + C4*LPKI; CON = D0 + D1*PKD + D2*LPNB + D3*LCON;
PKD = E0 + E1*PKB + E2*(PRD+JIM) + E3*CON;
JIM = F0 + F1*PKI + F2*PRD + F3*CON + F4*LJIM; PKI = G0 + G1*PWO + G2*EXR + G3*LTIM + G4*LPKI; PRD = LAP*PRV;
LLAP = LAG(LAP); LPTP = LAG(PTP); LPRV = LAG(PRV); LPNB = LAG(PNB); LPKD = LAG(PKD); LPBN = LAG(PBN); LPKI = LAG(PKI); LCON = LAG(CON); LJIM = LAG(JIM); LPJG = LAG(PJG); LTIM = LAG(TIM);
RANGE TAHUN = 2004 TO 2011; RUN;
Lampiran 6.Hasil validasi model ekonomi kedelai Indonesia menggunakan metode NEWTON dan prosedur SIMLIN dengan software SAS/ETS 9.1
The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure
Model Summary
Model Variables 8 Endogenous 8 Parameters 31 Range Variable TAHUN Equations 8 Number of Statements 19 Program Lag Length 1
The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation
Data Set Options DATA= KEDELAI1
OUT= B0
Solution Summary
Variables Solved 8 Simulation Lag Length 1 Solution Range TAHUN First 2004 Last 2011 Solution Method NEWTON CONVERGE= 1E-8 Maximum CC 8.8E-11 Maximum Iterations 6 Total Iterations 26 Average Iterations 3.25 Observations Processed Read 9 Lagged 1 Solved 8 First 22 Last 29
The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation Solution Range TAHUN = 2004 To 2011
Descriptive Statistics
Actual Predicted
Variable N Obs N Mean Std Dev Mean Std Dev LAP 8 8 602896 76711.3 660895 61983.4 PRV 8 8 1.3200 0.0374 1.3040 0.0198 PRD 8 8 797565 117591 861715 81332.0 PTP 8 8 5268.5 1643.6 5013.9 1633.3 CON 8 8 1907625 391900 2019429 306366 PKD 8 8 6682.6 2212.2 6328.7 1943.7 JIM 8 8 2128640 818938 2118188 314173 PKI 8 8 383.0 101.7 375.4 103.7 Statistics of fit
Mean Mean% Mean Abs Mean Abs RMS RMS%
Var N Error Error Error %Error Error Error R-Square LAP 8 57998.9 11.5900 90798.4 16.6706 114753 22.8455 -1.557 PRV 8 -0.0160 -1.1766 0.0206 1.5302 0.0266 1.9529 0.4245 PRD 8 64149.7 10.5379 127688 17.6885 155462 23.5980 -.9975 PTP 8 -254.6 -4.0731 605.2 13.4720 788.8 19.2393 0.7368 CON 8 111804 6.9743 136337 8.1130 181194 11.1815 0.7557 PKD 8 -353.9 -2.4503 1143.7 20.0317 1364.7 25.9867 0.5651 JIM 8 -10452.6 10.1238 636388 31.2759 672433 32.7548 0.2295 PKI 8 -7.5933 -2.0289 23.4830 5.8230 28.7280 6.7832 0.9087
Theil Forecast Error Statistics MSE Decomposition Proportions
Corr Bias Reg Dist Var Covar Inequal Coef Var N MSE (R) (UM) (UR) (UD) (US) (UC) U1 U LAP 8 1.317E10 -0.16 0.26 0.36 0.38 0.01 0.73 0.1890 0.0903 PRV 8 0.000705 0.86 0.36 0.19 0.44 0.39 0.25 0.0201 0.0101 PRD 8 2.417E10 -0.13 0.17 0.34 0.49 0.05 0.78 0.1931 0.0931 PTP 8 622241 0.88 0.10 0.05 0.85 0.00 0.90 0.1437 0.0735 CON 8 3.283E10 0.93 0.38 0.09 0.52 0.19 0.42 0.0933 0.0455 PKD 8 1862343 0.78 0.07 0.02 0.91 0.03 0.90 0.1951 0.1005 JIM 8 4.522E11 0.49 0.00 0.01 0.98 0.49 0.51 0.2972 0.1528 PKI 8 825.3 0.96 0.07 0.04 0.89 0.00 0.93 0.0728 0.0367
The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation Solution Range TAHUN = 2004 To 2011 Theil Relative Change Forecast Error Statistics
MSE Decomposition Proportions
Corr Bias Reg Dist Var Covar Inequal Coef Var N MSE (R) (UM) (UR) (UD) (US) (UC) U1 U LAP 8 0.0421 0.62 0.29 0.35 0.36 0.09 0.62 1.2777 0.4863 PRV 8 0.000390 0.35 0.37 0.35 0.29 0.05 0.59 1.3327 0.6460 PRD 8 0.0451 0.61 0.22 0.39 0.39 0.10 0.68 1.2305 0.4753 PTP 8 0.1931 0.73 0.10 0.21 0.69 0.61 0.29 0.7149 0.5080 CON 8 0.0120 0.40 0.40 0.13 0.46 0.01 0.59 1.0763 0.4362 PKD 8 0.1391 0.82 0.06 0.02 0.91 0.21 0.73 0.5306 0.3079 JIM 8 0.0877 0.61 0.05 0.49 0.45 0.14 0.81 1.1734 0.4754 PKI 8 0.00895 0.99 0.06 0.13 0.81 0.09 0.85 0.1346 0.0665
Lampiran 7. Program komputer simulasi model ekonomi kedelai Indonesia 2004-2011 menggunakan metode NEWTON dan prosedur SIMLIN dengan software SAS/ETS 9.1
OPTIONS NODATE NONUMBER;
DATA KEDELAI; SET KEDELAI; /*CREATE DATA*/
LLAP = LAG(LAP); LPUR = LAG(PUR); SKD = PRD + JIM; LPRV = LAG(PRV); LPJG = LAG(PJG);
LPKI = LAG(PKI); LPKD = LAG(PKD); LJIM = LAG(JIM); LCON = LAG(CON); LTIM = LAG(TIM); LPBN = LAG(PBN); LPNB = LAG(PNB); LPTP = LAG(PTP); /*RESPESIFIKASI*/ RPBN = PBN/LPBN; SPTP = PTP-LPTP; /*SKENARIO SIMULASI*/ TIM=10; /*TIM=15*/ RUN;
PROC SIMNLIN DATA=KEDELAI DYNAMIC SIMULATE STAT OUTPREDICT THEIL OUT=B3;
ENDOGENOUS LAP PRV PRD PTP CON PKD JIM PKI; INSTRUMENTS PJG PTP PBN EXR TIM PWO PUR PNB; PARM A0 159355.0 A1 32.94302 A2 -33.5921 A3 0.862783 B0 0.150472 B1 7.514E-6 B2 -0.00524 B3 0.890965 C0 -1019.11 C1 -0.00048 C2 0.609562 C3 0.000314 C4 7.251340 D0 857825.6 D1 -42.9694 D2 394.0686 D3 0.436827 E0 -1462.33 E1 1.208390 E2 -0.00032 E3 0.000957 F0 122673.1 F1 -1980.39 F2 -1.02050 F3 1.178804 F4 0.580863 G0 -43.3760 G1 1.122418 G2 0.002609 G3 2.765444 G4 0.170727; LAP = A0 + A1*(PTP-LPTP) + A2*LPJG + A3*LLAP; PRV = B0 + B1*(PTP-LPTP) + B2*(PBN/LPBN) + B3*LPRV;
PTP = C0 + C1*PRD + C2*PKB + C3*CON + C4*LPKI; CON = D0 + D1*PKD + D2*LPNB + D3*LCON;
PKD = E0 + E1*PKB + E2*(PRD+JIM) + E3*CON;
JIM = F0 + F1*PKI + F2*PRD + F3*CON + F4*LJIM; PKI = G0 + G1*PWO + G2*EXR + G3*LTIM + G4*LPKI; PRD = LAP*PRV;
LLAP = LAG(LAP); LPJG = LAG(PJG); LTIM = LAG(TIM); LPRV = LAG(PRV); LCON = LAG(CON);
LPKD = LAG(PKD); LPBN = LAG(PBN); LPKI = LAG(PKI); LPNB = LAG(PNB); LJIM = LAG(JIM); LPTP = LAG(PTP); RANGE TAHUN = 2004 TO 2011;
Lampiran 8. Hasil simulasi model ekonomi kedelai Indonesia menggunakan metode NEWTON dan prosedur SIMLIN dengan software SAS/ETS 9.1 1.Penetapan tarif impor kedelai sebesar 10%
The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure
Model Summary
Model Variables 8 Endogenous 8 Parameters 31 Range Variable TAHUN Equations 8 Number of Statements 19 Program Lag Length 1
The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation
Data Set Options DATA= KEDELAI1 OUT= B3
Solution Summary
Variables Solved 8 Simulation Lag Length 1 Solution Range TAHUN First 2004 Last 2011 Solution Method NEWTON CONVERGE= 1E-8 Maximum CC 4.63E-11 Maximum Iterations 5 Total Iterations 25 Average Iterations 3.125 Observations Processed Read 9 Lagged 1 Solved 8 First 22 Last 29
The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation Solution Range TAHUN = 2004 To 2011
Descriptive Statistics
Actual Predicted
Variable N Obs N Mean Std Dev Mean Std Dev LAP 8 8 602896 76711.3 662848 60348.3 PRV 8 8 1.3200 0.0374 1.3044 0.0202 PRD 8 8 797565 117591 864577 79378.9 PTP 8 8 5268.5 1643.6 5081.9 1699.3 CON 8 8 1907625 391900 2018701 305587 PKD 8 8 6682.6 2212.2 6340.6 1953.4 JIM 8 8 2128640 818938 2076045 307788 PKI 8 8 383.0 101.7 385.7 108.0
2. Penetapan tarif impor kedelai sebesar 15% The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure
Model Summary
Model Variables 8 Endogenous 8 Parameters 31 Range Variable TAHUN Equations 8 Number of Statements 19 Program Lag Length 1
The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation
Data Set Options DATA= KEDELAI1
Solution Summary
Variables Solved 8 Simulation Lag Length 1 Solution Range TAHUN First 2004 Last 2011 Solution Method NEWTON CONVERGE= 1E-8 Maximum CC 4.54E-10 Maximum Iterations 4 Total Iterations 24 Average Iterations 3 Observations Processed Read 9 Lagged 1 Solved 8 First 22 Last 29
Variables Solved For LAP PRV PRD PTP CON PKD JIM PKI The SAS System
The SIMNLIN Procedure Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation Solution Range TAHUN = 2004 To 2011
Descriptive Statistics
Actual Predicted
Variable N Obs N Mean Std Dev Mean Std Dev LAP 8 8 602896 76711.3 665098 61058.1 PRV 8 8 1.3200 0.0374 1.3050 0.0203 PRD 8 8 797565 117591 867895 80485.3 PTP 8 8 5268.5 1643.6 5182.5 1731.9 CON 8 8 1907625 391900 2017287 305135 PKD 8 8 6682.6 2212.2 6361.6 1959.4 JIM 8 8 2128640 818938 2002807 312810 PKI 8 8 383.0 101.7 401.9 108.3
bernama Sehat dan ibu Umi Chamdiyah. Penulis adalah putra kedua dari dua bersaudara. Tahun 2009 penulis lulus dari SMA N 1 Banjarnegara. Pada tahun yang sama penulis lulus Undangan Seleksi Masuk IPB (USMI) dan diterima di Departemen Ekonomi Sumberdaya dan Lingkungan, Fakultas Ekonomi dan Manajemen.
Selama mengkuti perkuliahan penulis aktif mengikuti kepanitian maupun organisasi. Tingkat Persiapan Bersama penulis aktif di Kerohanian Islam Asrama (KIA) serta kepanitiaan Masa Perkenalan Kampus Mahasiswa Baru (MPKMB). Memasuki Fakultas penulis aktif di Lembaga Dakwah Fakulltas Forum Mahasiswa Muslim dan Studi Islam (FORMASI). Tahun 2010 sebagai kepala divisi Islamic Student Center (ISC) kemudian tahun 2011 sebagai ketua umum.
Penulis pernah menjadi peserta beasiswa Program Pembinaan Sumberdaya ManusiaStrategis (PPSDMS) Nurul Fikri periode 2010-2012. Penulis mengikuti berbagai program pelatihan seperti: Pendidikan Kepemimpinan Nasional, National Leadership Camp, Training Pengembangan Diri serta Pelatihan Mengelola Hidup dan Merencanakan Masa Depan (MHMMD).
