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LAMPIRAN
Lampiran 1: Data Angka Melek Huruf 5 Daerah di Provinsi Riau Tahun 2004-2013 (%)
Obs Bengkalis Dumai Indragiri Hilir Pekanbaru Siak
2004 97,02 99,05 98,51 99,53 94,13 2005 97,29 99,10 98,52 99,66 94,10 2006 97,29 99,10 98,52 99,77 98,21 2007 97,29 99,28 98,52 99,77 98,21 2008 97,78 99,28 98,52 99,77 98,21 2009 97,79 99,30 98,79 99,80 98,49 2010 98,09 99,31 99,06 99,87 98,56 2011 98,16 99,35 99,15 99,89 98,65 2012 98,17 99,40 99,18 99,90 98,68 2013 98,18 99,43 99,2 99,90 98,69
Lampiran 2: Data Rata-Rata Lama Sekolah 5 Daerah di Provinsi Riau Tahun 2004-2013 (Tahun)
Obs Bengkalis Dumai Indragiri Hilir Pekanbaru Siak
2004 8,35 9,70 6,92 11,10 8,80 2005 8,60 9,70 70 11,27 8,80 2006 8,60 9,70 7,60 11,30 8,80 2007 8,60 9,70 7,60 11,30 8,80 2008 8,86 9,70 7,60 11,30 8,80 2009 8,99 9,72 7,62 11,32 9,03 2010 9,12 9,72 7,62 11,33 9,08 2011 9,17 9,73 7,63 11,34 9,14 2012 9,18 9,74 7,63 11,35 9,14 2013 9,22 9,76 7,66 11,42 9,16
Lampiran 3: Data Angka Harapan Hidup 5 Daerah di Provinsi Riau Tahun 2004-2013 (Tahun)
Obs Bengkalis Dumai Indragiri Hilir Pekanbaru Siak
2004 69.40 70.10 69.90 70.50 70.6 2005 69.67 70.25 70.30 70.53 70.91 2006 69.90 70.40 70.40 70.60 71 2007 70.06 70.77 70.70 70.87 71.23 2008 70.13 71.02 70.89 71.03 71.34 2009 70.24 71.33 71.14 71.24 71.52 2010 70.35 71.64 71.39 71.45 71.69 2011 70.46 71.95 71.63 71.67 72.86 2012 70.56 72.26 71.88 71.88 72.03 2013 70.61 72.29 71.95 71.94 72.07
Lampiran 4: Data Pertumbuhan Ekonomi 5 Daerah di Provinsi Riau Tahun 2004-2013 (%)
Obs Bengkalis Dumai Indragiri Hilir Pekanbaru Siak
2004 8.20 8.66 7.74 11.36 7.16 2005 7.40 7.74 7.03 10.05 6.88 2006 7.69 9.34 7.94 10.14 7.82 2007 7.88 8.87 7.82 9.86 7.54 2008 8.15 8.67 7.95 9.06 7.91 2009 6.95 8.43 7.14 8.81 7.15 2010 7.14 8.60 7.31 8.98 7.36 2011 7.67 8.43 7.38 9.56 7.46 2012 7.65 8.59 7.47 10.57 7.54 2013 7.26 8.57 7.03 9.01 6.72
Lampiran 5: Hasil Estimasi Data Panel dengan Common Effect Model
Dependent Variable: PERTUMBUHANEKONOMI? Method: Pooled Least Squares
Date: 05/21/16 Time: 00:17 Sample: 2004 2013
Included observations: 10 Cross-sections included: 5
Total pool (balanced) observations: 50
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C -3.015444 9.093122 -0.331618 0.7417 ANGKAMELEKHURUF? 0.318732 0.082349 3.870489 0.0003 RATARATALAMASEKOLAH? 0.532618 0.072596 7.336730 0.0000 ANGKAHARAPANHIDUP? -0.354922 0.116050 -3.058346 0.0037
R-squared 0.707453 Mean dependent var 8.152800 Adjusted R-squared 0.688374 S.D. dependent var 1.035875 S.E. of regression 0.578261 Akaike info criterion 1.819036 Sum squared resid 15.38176 Schwarz criterion 1.971998 Log likelihood -41.47590 Hannan-Quinn criter. 1.877285 F-statistic 37.07995 Durbin-Watson stat 1.238580 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Lampiran 6: Hasil Estimasi Data Panel dengan Fixed Effect Model Dependent Variable: PERTUMBUHANEKONOMI?
Method: Pooled Least Squares Date: 06/08/16 Time: 21:16 Sample: 2004 2013
Included observations: 10 Cross-sections included: 5
Total pool (balanced) observations: 50
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C -49.52232 27.30043 -1.813976 0.0788 ANGKAMELEKHURUF? 0.167072 0.085510 1.953822 0.0592 RATARATALAMASEKOLAH? 0.322857 0.467865 0.690063 0.4950 ANGKAHARAPANHIDUP? 0.538023 0.319996 1.681344 0.1021
Fixed Effects (Cross)
_INHIL—C -0.129781 _SIAK—C -0.802035 _BENGKALIS—C 0.198090 _PEKANBARU—C 0.649968 _DUMAI—C 0.083758 Fixed Effects (Period)
2004—C 1.219325 2005—C 0.243849 2006—C 0.759294 2007—C 0.418165 2008—C 0.255072 2009—C -0.558492 2010—C -0.525804 2011—C -0.543792 2012—C -0.290377 2013—C -0.977240 Effects Specification
Cross-section fixed (dummy variables) Period fixed (dummy variables)
R-squared 0.905735 Mean dependent var 8.152800 Adjusted R-squared 0.860031 S.D. dependent var 1.035875 S.E. of regression 0.387546 Akaike info criterion 1.206520 Sum squared resid 4.956332 Schwarz criterion 1.856608 Log likelihood -13.16300 Hannan-Quinn criter. 1.454077 F-statistic 19.81735 Durbin-Watson stat 1.498266 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Lampiran 7: Hasil Estimasi Data Panel dengan Random Effect Model Dependent Variable: PERTUMBUHANEKONOMI?
Method: Pooled EGLS (Two-way random effects) Date: 06/08/16 Time: 21:39
Sample: 2004 2013 Included observations: 10 Cross-sections included: 5
Total pool (balanced) observations: 50
Swamy and Arora estimator of component variances
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C -6.344669 9.221946 -0.687997 0.4949 ANGKAMELEKHURUF? 0.323604 0.079071 4.092557 0.0002 RATARATALAMASEKOLAH? 0.530426 0.069314 7.652535 0.0000 ANGKAHARAPANHIDUP? -0.314519 0.117045 -2.687176 0.0100
Random Effects (Cross)
_INHIL—C 0.000000 _SIAK—C 0.000000 _BENGKALIS—C 0.000000 _PEKANBARU—C 0.000000 _DUMAI—C 0.000000 Random Effects (Period)
2004—C 0.151882 2005—C -0.035765 2006—C 0.072007 2007—C 0.044275 2008—C 0.031279 2009—C -0.123423 2010—C -0.081522 2011—C -0.008479 2012—C 0.050438 2013—C -0.100692 Effects Specification S.D. Rho Cross-section random 0.000000 0.0000 Period random 0.095023 0.0567 Idiosyncratic random 0.387546 0.9433 Weighted Statistics
R-squared 0.727203 Mean dependent var 7.148846 Adjusted R-squared 0.709411 S.D. dependent var 1.022846 S.E. of regression 0.551378 Sum squared resid 13.98482 F-statistic 40.87442 Durbin-Watson stat 1.187010 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Lampiran 8:Command Estimation dan Estimation Equations Data Panel Estimation Command:
==========================================================
LS(CX=F,PER=F,B)PERTUMBUHANEKONOMI?C
ANGKAMELEKHURUF?RATARATALAMASEKOLAH?ANGKAHARAPANHIDUP?
Estimation Equations:
==========================================================
PER_EFFECT= C(10)*@ISPERIOD("2004") + C(11)*@ISPERIOD("2005")+ C(12)*@ISPERIOD("2006") + C(13)*@ISPERIOD("2007")+ C(14)*@ISPERIOD("2008") + C(15)*@ISPERIOD("2009")+C(16)*@ISPERIOD("2010") + C(17)*@ISPERIOD("2011")+C(18)*@ISPERIOD("2012") + C(19)*@ISPERIOD("2013") PERTUMBUHANEKONOMI_INHIL = C(5) + PER_EFFECT + C(1) +C(2)*ANGKAMELEKHURUF_INHI+
C(3)*RATARATALAMASEKOLAH_INHIL+ C(4)*ANGKAHARAPANHIDUP_INHIL
PERTUMBUHANEKONOMI_SIAK = C(6) + PER_EFFECT + C(1) + C(2)*ANGKAMELEKHURUF_SIAK + C(3)*RATARATALAMASEKOLAH_SIAK+ C(4)*ANGKAHARAPANHIDUP_SIAK PERTUMBUHANEKONOMI_BENGKALIS= C(7) + PER_EFFECT + C(1) + C(2)*ANGKAMELEKHURUF_BENGKALIS+ C(3)*RATARATALAMASEKOLAH_BENGKALIS+ C(4)*ANGKAHARAPANHIDUP_BENGKALIS PERTUMBUHANEKONOMI_PEKANBARU=C(8) + PER_EFFECT + C(1) + C(2)*ANGKAMELEKHURUF_PEKANBARU+ C(3)*RATARATALAMASEKOLAH_PEKANBARU+ C(4)*ANGKAHARAPANHIDUP_PEKANBARU PERTUMBUHANEKONOMI_DUMAI = C(9) + PER_EFFECT + C(1) + C(2)*ANGKAMELEKHURUF_DUMAI+ C(3)*RATARATALAMASEKOLAH_DUMAI+ C(4)*ANGKAHARAPANHIDUP_DUMAI Substituted Coefficients: ==========================================================
PER_EFFECT = 1.21932469717*@ISPERIOD("2004") + 0.243849452683*@ISPERIOD("2005") + 0.759293657497*@ISPERIOD("2006") + 0.41816490896*@ISPERIOD("2007")+ 0.255071680595*@ISPERIOD("2008") - 0.55849199026*@ISPERIOD("2009") – 0.525803791217*@ISPERIOD("2010") - 0.543791734615*@ISPERIOD("2011") – 0.290376935722*@ISPERIOD("2012") - 0.977239945094*@ISPERIOD("2013") PERTUMBUHANEKONOMI_INHIL = -0.129781282751 + PER_EFFECT - 49.5223224396 + 0.167072137511*ANGKAMELEKHURUF_INHIL + 0.322856753693*RATARATALAMASEKOLAH_INHIL + 0.538023126265*ANGKAHARAPANHIDUP_INHIL PERTUMBUHANEKONOMI_SIAK = -0.802035011872 + PER_EFFECT - 49.5223224396 + 0.167072137511*ANGKAMELEKHURUF_SIAK + 0.322856753693*RATARATALAMASEKOLAH_SIAK + 0.538023126265*ANGKAHARAPANHIDUP_SIAK PERTUMBUHANEKONOMI_BENGKALIS=0.198089593536 + PER_EFFECT - 49.5223224396 + 0.167072137511*ANGKAMELEKHURUF_BENGKALIS + 0.322856753693*RATARATALAMASEKOLAH_BENGKALIS + 0.538023126265*ANGKAHARAPANHIDUP_BENGKALIS PERTUMBUHANEKONOMI_PEKANBARU = 0.649968319593 + PER_EFFECT - 49.5223224396 + 0.167072137511*ANGKAMELEKHURUF_PEKANBARU + 0.322856753693*RATARATALAMASEKOLAH_PEKANBARU + 0.538023126265*ANGKAHARAPANHIDUP_PEKANBARU PERTUMBUHANEKONOMI_DUMAI = 0.0837583814932 + PER_EFFECT - 49.5223224396 + 0.167072137511*ANGKAMELEKHURUF_DUMAI + 0.322856753693*RATARATALAMASEKOLAH_DUMAI +
Lampiran 9: Hasil Chow Test
Redundant Fixed Effects Tests
Test cross-section and period fixed effects
Effects Test Statistic d.f. Prob.
Cross-section F 4.556130 (4,33) 0.0049 Cross-section Chi-square 21.985538 4 0.0002 Period F 3.821914 (9,33) 0.0022 Period Chi-square 35.704815 9 0.0000 Cross-Section/Period F 5.339542 (13,33) 0.0000 Cross-Section/Period Chi-square 56.625813 13 0.0000
Cross-section fixed effects test equation:
Dependent Variable: PERTUMBUHANEKONOMI? Method: Panel Least Squares
Date: 06/16/16 Time: 21:53 Sample: 2004 2013
Included observations: 10 Cross-sections included: 5
Total pool (balanced) observations: 50
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C -33.14270 10.57886 -3.132917 0.0034
ANGKAMELEKHURUF? 0.363814 0.067481 5.391382 0.0000
RATARATALAMASEKOLAH? 0.508488 0.057817 8.794830 0.0000
ANGKAHARAPANHIDUP? 0.009875 0.131340 0.075186 0.9405
Effects Specification Period fixed (dummy variables)
R-squared 0.853677 Mean dependent var 8.152800
Adjusted R-squared 0.806220 S.D. dependent var 1.035875 S.E. of regression 0.455996 Akaike info criterion 1.486231 Sum squared resid 7.693506 Schwarz criterion 1.983357 Log likelihood -24.15577 Hannan-Quinn criter. 1.675539
F-statistic 17.98872 Durbin-Watson stat 1.086418
Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Period fixed effects test equation:Dependent Variable: PERTUMBUHANEKONOMI?
Method: Panel Least Squares Date: 06/16/16 Time: 21:53 Sample: 2004 2013
Included observations: 10 Cross-sections included: 5
Total pool (balanced) observations: 50
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 12.63032 10.02663 1.259677 0.2147
ANGKAMELEKHURUF? 0.138229 0.098665 1.400989 0.1686
RATARATALAMASEKOLAH? -0.511562 0.461369 -1.108791 0.2738 ANGKAHARAPANHIDUP? -0.188289 0.153243 -1.228694 0.2260
Effects Specification Cross-section fixed (dummy variables)
R-squared 0.807479 Mean dependent var 8.152800
Adjusted R-squared 0.775392 S.D. dependent var 1.035875 S.E. of regression 0.490930 Akaike info criterion 1.560616 Sum squared resid 10.12252 Schwarz criterion 1.866540 Log likelihood -31.01541 Hannan-Quinn criter. 1.677114
F-statistic 25.16546 Durbin-Watson stat 1.798661
Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Cross-section and period fixed effects test equation: Dependent Variable: PERTUMBUHANEKONOMI? Method: Panel Least Squares
Date: 06/16/16 Time: 21:53 Sample: 2004 2013
Included observations: 10 Cross-sections included: 5
Total pool (balanced) observations: 50
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C -3.015444 9.093122 -0.331618 0.7417
ANGKAMELEKHURUF? 0.318732 0.082349 3.870489 0.0003
RATARATALAMASEKOLAH? 0.532618 0.072596 7.336730 0.0000 ANGKAHARAPANHIDUP? -0.354922 0.116050 -3.058346 0.0037
R-squared 0.707453 Mean dependent var 8.152800
Adjusted R-squared 0.688374 S.D. dependent var 1.035875 S.E. of regression 0.578261 Akaike info criterion 1.819036 Sum squared resid 15.38176 Schwarz criterion 1.971998 Log likelihood -41.47590 Hannan-Quinn criter. 1.877285
F-statistic 37.07995 Durbin-Watson stat 1.238580
Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Lampiran 10: Hasil Hausman Test
Correlated Random Effects - Hausman Test Test cross-section and period random effects
Test Summary Chi-Sq. Statistic Chi-Sq. d.f. Prob.
Cross-section random 0.000000 3 1.0000
Period random 0.000000 3 1.0000
Cross-section and period random 105.043313 3 0.0000
* Cross-section test variance is invalid. Hausman statistic set to zero. * Period test variance is invalid. Hausman statistic set to zero.
** WARNING: estimated cross-section random effects variance is zero. Cross-section random effects test comparisons:
Variable Fixed Random Var(Diff.) Prob.
ANGKAMELEKHURUF? 0.130942 0.323604 -0.000063 NA
RATARATALAMASEKOLAH? -0.469039 0.530426 0.130540 0.0057 ANGKAHARAPANHIDUP? -0.177805 -0.314519 0.002590 0.0072
Cross-section random effects test equation:
Dependent Variable: PERTUMBUHANEKONOMI? Method: Panel EGLS (Period random effects) Date: 06/16/16 Time: 21:55
Sample: 2004 2013 Included observations: 10 Cross-sections included: 5
Total pool (balanced) observations: 50
Swamy and Arora estimator of component variances
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 12.21053 8.581808 1.422839 0.1622 ANGKAMELEKHURUF? 0.130942 0.078672 1.664399 0.1035 RATARATALAMASEKOLAH? -0.469039 0.367892 -1.274938 0.2093 ANGKAHARAPANHIDUP? -0.177805 0.127630 -1.393134 0.1709 Effects Specification S.D. Rho Cross-section fixed (dummy variables)
Period random 0.095023 0.0567
Idiosyncratic random 0.387546 0.9433
Weighted Statistics
R-squared 0.821787 Mean dependent var 8.152800
Adjusted R-squared 0.792085 S.D. dependent var 1.022846 S.E. of regression 0.466395 Sum squared resid 9.136004
Unweighted Statistics
R-squared 0.807354 Mean dependent var 8.152800
Sum squared resid 10.12909 Durbin-Watson stat 1.798986
Period random effects test comparisons:
Variable Fixed Random Var(Diff.) Prob.
ANGKAMELEKHURUF? 0.363814 0.323604 -0.002963 NA
RATARATALAMASEKOLAH? 0.508488 0.530426 -0.002390 NA
ANGKAHARAPANHIDUP? 0.009875 -0.314519 -0.001239 NA
Period random effects test equation:
Dependent Variable: PERTUMBUHANEKONOMI? Method: Panel EGLS (Cross-section random effects) Date: 06/16/16 Time: 21:55
Sample: 2004 2013 Included observations: 10 Cross-sections included: 5
Total pool (balanced) observations: 50
Swamy and Arora estimator of component variances
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C -33.14270 8.990854 -3.686269 0.0007 ANGKAMELEKHURUF? 0.363814 0.057351 6.343635 0.0000 RATARATALAMASEKOLAH? 0.508488 0.049138 10.34822 0.0000 ANGKAHARAPANHIDUP? 0.009875 0.111624 0.088465 0.9300 Effects Specification S.D. Rho Cross-section random 0.000000 0.0000
Period fixed (dummy variables)
Idiosyncratic random 0.387546 1.0000
Weighted Statistics
R-squared 0.853677 Mean dependent var 8.152800
Adjusted R-squared 0.806220 S.D. dependent var 1.035875 S.E. of regression 0.455996 Sum squared resid 7.693506
F-statistic 17.98872 Durbin-Watson stat 1.086418
Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Unweighted Statistics
R-squared 0.853677 Mean dependent var 8.152800
Cross-section and period random effects test comparisons:
Variable Fixed Random Var(Diff.) Prob.
ANGKAMELEKHURUF? 0.167072 0.323604 0.001060 0.0000
RATARATALAMASEKOLAH? 0.322857 0.530426 0.214094 0.6537 ANGKAHARAPANHIDUP? 0.538023 -0.314519 0.088698 0.0042
Cross-section and period random effects test equation: Dependent Variable: PERTUMBUHANEKONOMI? Method: Panel Least Squares
Date: 06/16/16 Time: 21:55 Sample: 2004 2013
Included observations: 10 Cross-sections included: 5
Total pool (balanced) observations: 50
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C -49.52232 27.30043 -1.813976 0.0788
ANGKAMELEKHURUF? 0.167072 0.085510 1.953822 0.0592
RATARATALAMASEKOLAH? 0.322857 0.467865 0.690063 0.4950 ANGKAHARAPANHIDUP? 0.538023 0.319996 1.681344 0.1021
Effects Specification Cross-section fixed (dummy variables)
Period fixed (dummy variables)
R-squared 0.905735 Mean dependent var 8.152800
Adjusted R-squared 0.860031 S.D. dependent var 1.035875 S.E. of regression 0.387546 Akaike info criterion 1.206520 Sum squared resid 4.956332 Schwarz criterion 1.856608 Log likelihood -13.16300 Hannan-Quinn criter. 1.454077
F-statistic 19.81735 Durbin-Watson stat 1.498266
Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Lampiran 11: Hasil Uji Normalitas
Sumber : Data Olahan, 2016
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
Series: Standardized Residuals Sample 2004 2013 Observations 50 Mean -6.33e-17 Median -0.035682 Maximum 0.869999 Minimum -0.855569 Std. Dev. 0.318040 Skewness 0.103868 Kurtosis 3.647567 Jarque-Bera 0.963535 Probability 0.617691
Lampiran 12 : Hasil Uji Multikolinieritas
Variabel Angka Melek Huruf Rata-Rata Lama Sekolah
Angka Harapan Hidup Angka Melek Huruf
(X1) 1.000000000000 0.449724343365 0.395238895957 Rata-Rata Lama
Sekolah (X2) 0.449724343365 1.000000000000 0.196940472650 Angka Harapan
Hidup (X3) 0.395238895957 0.196940472650 1.000000000000