A. Kesimpulan
Berdasarkan hasil analisis data maka hasil dari penelitian ini dapat disimpulkan sebagai berikut:
1. Rasio keuangan yang berasal dari laporan laba rugi, neraca dan laporan arus kas menunjukkan bahwa rasio TL/TA, CFFO/TL, CA/CL, dan NI/TA dapat digunakan untuk memprediksi kondisi financial distress perusahaan dengan daya klasifikasi total sebesar 92,3% yang mengindikasikan besarnya tingkat keberhasilan untuk memprediksi kondisi financial distress.
2. Terdapat perbedaan rasio NI/TA dan CFFO/TL antara perusahaan yang mengalami kondisi financial distress baik karena laba bersih negatif selama dua tahun berturut-turut ataupun perusahaan yang laba dan nilai buku ekuitas negatif selama dua tahun berturut-turut dengan perusahaan yang tidak mengalami kondisi financial distress.
B. Keterbatasan Penelitian
Penelitian ini memiliki keterbatasan sebagai berikut:
1. Kondisi financial distress hanya diproksi dengan dua ukuran yaitu nilai buku ekuitas dan laba operasi. Terdapat ukuran lain untuk memproksikan kondisi financial distress perusahaan, misalnya deviden dan tenaga kerja.
2. Jumlah perusahaan sampel yang mengalami kondisi financial distress hanya diambil dari BEI selama periode dua tahun berturut-turut. Penelitian selanjutnya dapat memperpanjang periode prediksi dan periode observasi.
C. Saran
Berdasarkan dari hasil penelitian ini yaitu rasio TL/TA, CFFO/TL, CA/CL, dan NI/TA dapat digunakan oleh investor dalam menanamkan modalnya dengan aman karena rasio ini dapat digunakan untuk memprediksi perusahaan tersebut sehat atau mengalami financial distress.
Penelitian selanjutnya juga dapat menggunakan model lain selain multinomial logit seperti salah satunya model Altman.
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Lampiran 1 Perusahaan Sampel Non Financial Distress Periode 2009-2010
Kode Keterangan Total_Equity Net_Income
2009 2010 2009 2010
SMCB PT. Holcim Indonesia Tbk 3.314.890.000,00 6.822.608.000,00 895.751.000,00 828.422.000,00 INTP PT. Indocement Tunggal Prakasa Tbk 10.680.725.404,00 13.077.390.156,52 2.746.654.071,08 3.224.941.884,79 SMGR PT. Semen Gresik (Persero) Tbk 10.197.679.028,00 12.006.438.613,00 3.326.487.957,00 3.633.219.892,00 ARNA PT. Arwana Citramulia Tbk 342.521.286,00 408.713.634,92 63.888.414,16 79.039.853,13 AMFG PT. Asahimas Flat Glass Tbk 1.529.312.000,00 1.842.925.000,00 67.293.000,00 330.973.000,00 KIAS PT. Keramika Indonesia Assosiasi Tbk 149.489.743,51 194.155.244,93 27.328.221,76 14.572.509,80 ALMI PT. Alumindo Light Metal Industry Tbk 462.065.082,95 505.798.105,21 26.220.835,52 43.722.582,26 JPRS PT. Jaya Pari Steel Tbk 271.688.680,35 300.134.260,86 1.917.377,91 28.445.580,51 APLI PT. Asiaplast Industries Tbk 155.625.081,41 229.459.767,55 30.142.714,63 24.659.768,96 BRNA PT. Berlina Tbk 179.729.698,85 201.353.473,51 20.260.227,90 34.760.866,43 IGAR PT. Kageo Igar Jaya Tbk 207.280.708,50 240.128.403,80 24.740.866,57 32.151.888,05 SIAP PT. Sekawan Intipratama Tbk 73.839.765,57 77.863.676,98 3.122.759,05 4.023.911,41 TRST PT. Trias Sentosa Tbk 1.144.728.613,47 1.237.981.945,81 143.882.097,67 136.727.109,11 YPAS PT. Yanaprima Hastapersada Tbk 123.669.855,30 131.495.983,65 18.540.681,48 21.186.130,13 JPFA PT. Japfa Comfeed Indonesia Tbk 2.101.540.000,00 3.074.281.000,00 814.451.000,00 959.161.000,00 ASII PT. Astra International Tbk 39.894.000.000,00 49.310.000.000,00 10.040.000.000,00 14.366.000.000,00 AUTO PT. Astra Otoparts Tbk 3.208.778.000,00 3.860.827.000,00 768.265.000,00 1.141.179.000,00 GJTL PT. Gajah Tunggal Tbk 2.670.660.000,00 3.526.597.000,00 905.330.000,00 830.624.000,00 INDS PT. Indospring Tbk 165.565.895,18 227.300.250,11 58.765.937,26 71.109.354,93 SMSM PT. Selamat Sempurna Tbk 497.821.548,96 519.374.643,87 132.850.275,04 150.420.111,99
Lanjutan Lampiran 1 Perusahaan Sampel Non Financial Distress Periode 2009-2010
ESTI PT. Ever Shine Textile Industry Tbk 256.793.086,44 256.181.080,84 7.686.659,42 1.487.272,54 SSTM PT. Sunson Textile Manufacturer Tbk 313.255.131,39 323.173.455,25 31.135.279,84 9.918.323,87 BATA PT. Sepatu Bata Tbk 301.343.895,00 331.508.965,00 52.980.646,00 60.975.070,00 ADES PT. Akasha Wira International Tbk 68.219.000,00 99.878.000,00 16.321.000,00 31.659.000,00 DLTA PT. Delta Djakarta Tbk 590.226.233,00 577.667.914,00 126.504.062,00 139.566.900,00 INDF PT. Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk 10.155.495.000,00 16.784.671.000,00 2.075.861.000,00 2.952.858.000,00 MYOR PT. Mayora Indah Tbk 1.581.755.458,43 1.991.294.908,56 372.157.912,33 484.086.202,52 STTP PT. Siantar Top Tbk 404.509.244,79 447.140.003,89 41.072.367,35 42.630.759,10 ULTJ PT. Ultrajaya Milk Industry & Trading Comp 1.191.583.178,28 1.297.952.719,76 61.152.852,19 107.123.243,84 RMBA PT. Bentoel International Investama Tbk 1.755.365.685,81 2.129.527.000,00 25.165.110,92 218.621.000,00 GGRM PT. Gudang Garam Tbk 18.301.537.000,00 21.197.162.000,00 3.455.702.000,00 4.146.282.000,00 DVLA PT. Darya Varia Laboratoria Tbk 554.921.528,00 640.602.050,00 72.272.233,00 110.880.522,00 INAF PT. Indofarma Tbk 298.720.165,59 311.266.809,98 2.125.637,97 12.546.644,39 KLBF PT. Kalbe Farma Tbk 4.310.437.877,06 5.373.784.301,20 929.003.740,34 1.286.330.026,01 KAEF PT. Kimia Farma Tbk 995.315.100,09 1.114.028.943,71 62.506.876,51 138.716.044,10 MRAT PT. Mustika Ratu Tbk 316.412.409,85 337.511.576,66 21.016.846,72 24.418.796,93 UNVR PT. Unilever Indonesia Tbk 3.702.819.000,00 4.045.419.000,00 3.044.107.000,00 3.386.970.000,00 FAST PT. Fast Food Indonesia Tbk 639.105.532,00 801.663.959,00 181.996.584,00 199.597.177,00 NIKL PT. Pelat Timah Nusantara Tbk 427.499.245,00 487.423.343,00 41.996.826,00 74.576.042,00
Lampiran 2 Perusahaan Sampel Financial Distress ( Net Income Negatif) periode 2007-2008
Kode Keterangan Net_Income
2007 2008
AKKU PT. Aneka Kemasindo -38.439.188,00 -8.121.292.902,00 APLI PT. Asiaplast Industry -4.584.651.718,00 -4.821.452.181,00 FPNI PT. Titan Kimia Nusantara -52.553.128.644,00 -562.308.198.855,00 SQMI PT. Allbon Makmur -34.767.890.134,00 -12.019.560.106,00 ARGO PT. ARGO Pantes -179.143.654,00 -188.504.459,00 ESTI PT. Evershine Textil -15.305.237.194,00 22.019.267.165,00 ADES PT Ades -154.851.000.000,00 -15.208.000.000,00 BATI PT. BAT indonesia -34.218.000.000,00 -86.621.000.000,00
Lampiran 3 Perusahaan Sampel Financial Distress (Net Income Negatif dan Equity Negatif) periode 2007-2008
Kode Keterangan Total_Equity Net_Income
2007 2008 2007 2008
MLIA PT. Mulia Industrindo -4.203.302.566.000,00 -4.962.024.307.000,00 -1.013.647.987.000,00 -758.721.741.000,00 JKSW PT. Jakarta Kyosteel -388.603.613.262,00 -418.519.493.822,00 -35.001.818.020,00 -29.915.880.560,00 DSUC PT. Dayasakti Unggul -61.180.107.687,00 -139.039.004.601,00 -66.048.892.212,00 -77.858.896.914,00 POLY PT. Polisindo -6.942.220.442.412,00 -9.228.456.279.302,00 -892.609.202.695,00 -2.282.123.199.644,00 TFCO PT. Teidjin Indo -276.365.710.000,00 -554.128.807.000,00 -320.613.710.000,00 -577.763.160.000,00
Lampiran 4 Perhitungan Rasio CA/CL, NI/TA, TL/TA Perusahaan Non Financial Distress Periode 2009-2010
Kode Keterangan CA/CL (Current Ratio) NI/TA TL/TA (Debt to Asset ratio)
2009 2010 2009 2010 2009 2010
SMCB PT. Holcim Indonesia Tbk 72.00 66.00 12.00 8.00 20.00 29.00
INTP PT. Indocement Tunggal Prakasa Tbk 86.00 55.00 28.59 27.68 19.00 15.00 SMGR PT. Semen Gresik (Persero) Tbk 57.63 29.17 35.94 30.35 20.00 22.00
ARNA PT. Arwana Citramulia Tbk 79.00 97.00 11.05 12.34 58.00 52.00
AMFG PT. Asahimas Flat Glass Tbk 34.44 93.95 4.64 18.50 22.46 22.33
KIAS PT. Keramika Indonesia Assosiasi Tbk 99.25 101.71 2.25 5.22 60.00 56.00 ALMI PT. Alumindo Light Metal Industry Tbk 30.00 52.00 2.00 1.00 87.00 82.00
JPRS PT. Jaya Pari Steel Tbk 97.00 86.50 0.34 3.99 69.00 66.00
APLI PT. Asiaplast Industries Tbk 40.19 16.22 15.15 9.81 49.00 31.00
BRNA PT. Berlina Tbk 51.00 53.00 4.62 8.58 60.00 59.00
IGAR PT. Kageo Igar Jaya Tbk 91.10 48.50 9.16 8.64 40.00 39.00
SIAP PT. Sekawan Intipratama Tbk 45.47 64.71 13.62 14.28 35.00 35.00
TRST PT. Trias Sentosa Tbk 36.88 62.18 18.44 18.64 45.00 48.00
YPAS PT. Yanaprima Hastapersada Tbk 72.39 75.73 20.39 24.96 27.00 27.00 JPFA PT. Japfa Comfeed Indonesia Tbk 69.09 32.65 10.06 11.49 62.00 47.00
ASII PT. Astra International Tbk 62.00 70.08 17.73 18.32 32.00 31.00
AUTO PT. Astra Otoparts Tbk 98.70 49.36 22.69 25.18 26.00 18.00
GJTL PT. Gajah Tunggal Tbk 41.17 85.13 56.76 52.16 50.00 53.00
INDS PT. Indospring Tbk 68.85 70.92 7.26 6.94 26.00 31.00
Lanjutan Lampiran 4 Perhitungan Rasio CA/CL, NI/TA, TL/TA Perusahaan Non Financial Distress Periode 2009-2010 ESTI PT. Ever Shine Textile Industry Tbk 69.04 58.08 15.52 14.97 50.00 54.00 SSTM PT. Sunson Textile Manufacturer Tbk 78.70 72.41 19.74 19.19 42.00 47.00
BATA PT. Sepatu Bata Tbk 53.18 76.09 14.35 10.80 70.00 66.00
ADES PT. Akasha Wira International Tbk 70.36 63.08 23.41 27.23 21.00 16.00
DLTA PT. Delta Djakarta Tbk 83.37 81.54 2.89 0.58 51.00 56.00
INDF PT. Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk 72.22 82.67 12.87 13.63 73.00 70.00
MYOR PT. Mayora Indah Tbk 32.42 68.12 4.85 1.61 64.00 63.00
STTP PT. Siantar Top Tbk 84.37 51.14 9.76 10.34 62.00 69.00
ULTJ PT. Ultrajaya Milk Industry & Trading Comp 85.63 69.07 5.67 10.11 31.00 35.00 RMBA PT. Bentoel International Investama Tbk 65.92 79.99 2.07 7.49 59.00 57.00
GGRM PT. Gudang Garam Tbk 35.02 71.67 14.56 18.02 29.00 25.00
DVLA PT. Darya Varia Laboratoria Tbk 77.88 71.34 7.90 8.53 13.00 13.00
INAF PT. Indofarma Tbk 85.79 70.82 23.73 21.16 39.00 35.00
KLBF PT. Kalbe Farma Tbk 35.20 20.85 17.20 17.46 28.00 32.00
KAEF PT. Kimia Farma Tbk 64.71 52.11 9.38 10.21 30.00 47.00
MRAT PT. Mustika Ratu Tbk 54.21 75.15 1.74 2.78 59.00 58.00
UNVR PT. Unilever Indonesia Tbk 52.61 62.95 20.59 20.59 61.00 50.00
FAST PT. Fast Food Indonesia Tbk 68.58 74.18 16.18 19.83 19.00 16.00
Lampiran 5 Perhitungan Rasio CFFO/TL, CA/TA, CFFO/TA Perusahaan Non Financial Distress Periode 2009-2010
Kode Keterangan CFFO/TL CA/TA CFFO/TA
2009 2010 2009 2010 2009 2010
SMCB PT. Holcim Indonesia Tbk 39.06 29.40 20.32 21.59 22.61 10.17
INTP PT. Indocement Tunggal Prakasa Tbk 42.00 50.30 40.22 48.77 23.99 22.00
SMGR PT. Semen Gresik (Persero) Tbk 61.27 98.13 63.37 4.72 32.79 21.59
ARNA PT. Arwana Citramulia Tbk 18.55 25.21 25.00 34.00 10.69 13.23
AMFG PT. Asahimas Flat Glass Tbk 77.13 90.96 39.87 54.00 17.33 20.31
KIAS PT. Keramika Indonesia Assosiasi Tbk 0.45 13.25 53.63 52.88 0.27 7.44 ALMI PT. Alumindo Light Metal Industry Tbk -3.41 3.44 4.00 4.00 -3.02 2.91
JPRS PT. Jaya Pari Steel Tbk 18.24 -7.41 62.00 56.00 12.55 -4.92
APLI PT. Asiaplast Industries Tbk 22.90 29.26 37.91 47.22 11.11 9.22
BRNA PT. Berlina Tbk 8.85 18.47 55.92 53.42 5.34 11.00
IGAR PT. Kageo Igar Jaya Tbk 40.59 17.06 29.42 35.54 16.41 6.65
SIAP PT. Sekawan Intipratama Tbk 21.97 32.35 47.02 46.84 7.75 11.17
TRST PT. Trias Sentosa Tbk 28.33 4.57 41.14 41.50 12.74 2.58
YPAS PT. Yanaprima Hastapersada Tbk 40.30 21.72 45.89 39.38 12.46 6.71
JPFA PT. Japfa Comfeed Indonesia Tbk 9.30 30.82 32.07 42.47 5.73 14.62
ASII PT. Astra International Tbk 36.57 30.10 71.92 74.51 11.99 9.34
AUTO PT. Astra Otoparts Tbk 80.61 99.49 72.53 71.62 21.04 17.83
GJTL PT. Gajah Tunggal Tbk 8.69 77.79 48.08 43.07 4.38 41.59
INDS PT. Indospring Tbk 69.31 -6.69 33.85 44.86 18.22 -2.08
Lanjutan Lampiran 5 Perhitungan Rasio CFFO/TL, CA/TA, CFFO/TA Perusahaan Non Financial Distress Periode 2009- 2010
ESTI PT. Ever Shine Textile Industry Tbk 27.51 10.10 53.92 61.03 13.75 5.42 SSTM PT. Sunson Textile Manufacturer Tbk 67.46 30.34 61.05 62.01 28.47 14.18
BATA PT. Sepatu Bata Tbk 18.33 14.77 38.02 43.30 12.81 9.75
ADES PT. Akasha Wira International Tbk 99.50 24.25 80.61 79.87 22.27 4.48
DLTA PT. Delta Djakarta Tbk 18.84 6.60 54.97 58.40 9.51 3.70
INDF PT. Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk 26.97 1.36 66.52 68.84 19.78 0.96
MYOR PT. Mayora Indah Tbk 1.10 3.05 53.09 54.97 0.71 1.92
STTP PT. Siantar Top Tbk 15.34 -13.24 41.25 40.64 9.47 -9.17
ULTJ PT. Ultrajaya Milk Industry & Trading 2.92 37.40 46.94 47.62 0.91 13.15 RMBA PT. Bentoel International Investama 1.58 16.83 64.87 62.28 1.09 11.50
GGRM PT. Gudang Garam Tbk 14.89 81.73 77.26 76.12 4.35 20.43
DVLA PT. Darya Varia Laboratoria Tbk 4.95 9.45 76.41 75.26 0.67 1.19
INAF PT. Indofarma Tbk 91.39 67.58 47.37 45.16 35.31 23.75
KLBF PT. Kalbe Farma Tbk 70.13 69.62 58.15 6.10 19.41 21.96
KAEF PT. Kimia Farma Tbk 74.22 -10.66 86.83 87.32 22.06 -5.00
MRAT PT. Mustika Ratu Tbk 9.45 5.61 79.83 79.39 5.57 3.23
UNVR PT. Unilever Indonesia Tbk 18.49 31.44 65.38 63.54 11.27 15.73
FAST PT. Fast Food Indonesia Tbk 48.39 56.61 83.60 88.90 9.25 24.44
Lampiran 6 Perhitungan Rasio CA/CL, NI/TA, TL/TA Perusahaan Financial Distress (Net Income Negatif) Periode 2007- 2008
Kode Keterangan CA/CL (Current Ratio) NI/TA TL/TA (Debt to Asset ratio)
2007 2008 2007 2008 2007 2008
AKKU PT. Aneka Kemasindo 32.30 73.22 -0.22 -27.46 35.89 38.34
APLI PT. Asiaplast Industry 85.55 67.42 -7.25 -0.70 56.00 55.00
FPNI PT. Titan Kimia Nusantara 14.48 61.19 -26.16 -10.21 31.00 60.00
SQMI PT. Allbon Makmur 88.18 83.52 -107.81 -17.60 28.00 40.00
ARGO PT. ARGO Pantes 56.00 46.84 -6.46 -15.79 84.00 93.00
ESTI PT. Evershine Textil 93.39 92.54 -3.91 -5.60 50.00 53.00
ADES PT. Ades 34.38 51.39 -85.02 -16.56 62.00 72.00
Lampiran 7 Perhitungan Rasio CFFO/TL, CA/TA, CFFO/TA Perusahaan Financial Distress (Net Income Negatif) Periode 2007-2008
Kode Keterangan CFFO/TL CA/TA CFFO/TA
2007 2008 2007 2008 2007 2008
AKKU PT. Aneka Kemasindo -11.00 6.20 40.32 26.98 -3.95 2.38
APLI PT. Asiaplast Industry -4.77 27.58 33.17 29.08 -2.66 15.05
FPNI PT. Titan Kimia Nusantara -1.53 4.28 12.72 28.38 -1.58 2.55
SQMI PT. Allbon Makmur -52.77 -10.06 11.82 4.75 -14.88 -4.06
ARGO PT. ARGO Pantes 1.91 -1.21 21.94 18.87 1.60 -1.13
ESTI PT. Evershine Textil 2.37 15.47 62.16 63.63 1.18 8.21
ADES PT Ades -68.26 -36.44 18.53 32.00 -42.64 -26.22
Lampiran 8 Perhitungan Rasio CA/CL, NI/TA, TL/TA Perusahaan Financial Distress (Net Income Negatif dan Equity Negatif) Periode 2007-2008
Kode Keterangan CA/CL (Current Ratio) NI/TA TL/TA (Debt to Asset ratio)
2007 2008 2007 2008 2007 2008
MLIA PT. Mulia Industrindo 18.27 19.75 -26.99 -15.56 21.00 33.00
JKSW PT. Jakarta Kyosteel 42.51 42.05 11.10 0.14 33.94 39.35
DSUC PT. Dayasakti Unggul 12.23 10.52 -17.21 47.84 27.42 87.84
POLY PT. Polisindo 47.98 36.82 12.68 30.45 10.38 17.82
Lampiran 8 Perhitungan Rasio CFFO/TL, CA/TA, CFFO/TA Perusahaan Financial Distress (Net Income Negatif dan Equity Negatif) Periode 2007-2008
Kode Keterangan CFFO/TL CA/TA CFFO/TA
2007 2008 2007 2008 2007 2008
MLIA PT. Mulia Industrindo 2.07 3.08 37.55 44.87 4.36 7.18
JKSW PT. Jakarta Kyosteel 10.15 3.61 50.36 8.64 23.74 50.18
DSUC PT. Dayasakti Unggul 0.05 -0.24 26.22 28.34 0.11 -0.70
POLY PT. Polisindo 1.81 -6.48 48.85 43.32 2.00 -8.29
Lampiran 9 Tabel Multinomial Logit menggunakan SPSS Case Processing Summary
N Marginal Percentage Kelompok 1.00 78 75.0% 2.00 16 15.4% 3.00 10 9.6% Valid 104 100.0% Missing 0 Total 104 Subpopulation 104a
a. The dependent variable has only one value observed in 104 (100,0%) subpopulations.
Model Fitting Information
Model
Model Fitting
Criteria Likelihood Ratio Tests -2 Log Likelihoo d Chi- Square df Sig. Intercept Only 151.612 Final 44.245 107.367 12 .000 Classification Observed Predicted 1.00 2.00 3.00 Percent Correct 1.00 78 0 0 100.0% 2.00 3 11 2 68.8% 3.00 1 2 7 70.0% Overall Percentage 78.8% 12.5% 8.7% 92.3% Goodness-of-Fit Chi-Square df Sig. Pearson 87.343 194 1.000 Deviance 44.245 194 1.000 Pseudo R-Square Cox and Snell .644 Nagelkerke .839 McFadden .708
Lanjutan Tabel Multinomial Logit menggunakan SPSS Likelihood Ratio Tests
Effect
Model Fitting
Criteria Likelihood Ratio Tests -2 Log Likelihood of Reduced Model Chi- Square df Sig. Intercept 66.339 22.094 2 .000 CACL 66.338 22.093 2 .000 NITA 65.187 20.943 2 .000 TLTA 52.715 8.470 2 .014 CFFOTL 67.535 23.291 2 .000 CATA 46.558 2.313 2 .315 CFFOTA 52.261 8.016 2 .018
The chi-square statistic is the difference in -2 log-likelihoods between the final model and a reduced model. The reduced model is formed by omitting an effect from the final model. The null hypothesis is that all parameters of that effect are 0.
Lanjutan Tabel Multinomial Logit menggunakan SPSS Parameter Estimates
Kelompoka B Std. Error Wald df Sig. Exp(B)
95% Confidence Interval for Exp(B)
Lower Bound Upper Bound 1.00 Intercept -11.941 3.815 9.799 1 .002 CACL .160 .059 7.291 1 .537 1.174 1.045 1.319 NITA .036 .044 .672 1 .412 1.037 .951 1.130 TLTA .087 .034 6.626 1 .010 1.090 1.021 1.165 CFFOTL - .342 .132 6.716 1 .010 1.407 1.087 1.823 CATA .034 .042 .634 1 .426 1.034 .952 1.124 CFFOTA -.440 .229 3.689 1 .055 .644 .411 1.009 2.00 Intercept -10.561 3.284 10.340 1 .001 CACL -.179 .061 8.740 1 .003 1.196 1.062 1.347 NITA -.180 .062 8.405 1 .004 .836 .740 .943 TLTA .058 .037 2.482 1 .115 1.060 .986 1.139 CFFOTL .089 .112 .625 1 .429 1.093 .877 1.361 CATA -.009 .046 .039 1 .843 .991 .906 1.084 CFFOTA -.064 .123 .268 1 .605 .938 .737 1.194
ABSTRAK
PREDIKSI FINANCIAL DISTRESS PADA
PERUSAHAAN MANUFAKTUR YANG TERDAFTAR DI BEI DENGAN MENGGUNAKAN ANALISIS MULTINOMIAL LOGIT (Studi Empiris pada Perusahaan Manufaktur yang terdaftar di Bursa Efek
Indonesia tahun 2007 s/d 2010) Aria Gustiyawan
NIM: 082114024 Universitas Sanata Dharma
Yogyakarta 2013
Tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk (1) mengetahui apakah rasio keuangan likuiditas, profitabilitas, aktivitas operasi dan leverage dapat memprediksi perusahaan yang mengalami financial distress dan perusahaan yang tidak mengalami financial distress, (2) mengetahui adanya perbedaan rasio antara perusahaan yang mengalami kondisi financial distress dan perusahaan yang tidak mengalami financial distress.
Jenis penelitian adalah penelitian empiris. Pengambilan sampel menggunakan metode purposive sampling. Jumlah sampel 104 perusahaan manufaktur yang terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia selama tahun 2007 s/d 2010. Penelitian ini menggunakan variabel rasio likuiditas, profitabilitas, financial leverage, dan rasio aktivitas operasi. Data diuji dengan menggunakan (1) Uji likehood ratio dan (2) Uji Manova dengan menggunakan Levine’s test.
Hasil penelitian ini menunjukan bahwa rasio likuiditas, leverage dan aktivitas operasi dapat digunakan untuk memprediksi kondisi financial distress perusahaan, serta terdapat perbedaan rasio profitabilitas, dan likuiditas antara perusahaan yang mengalami kondisi financial distress selama dua tahun berturut- turut dengan perusahaan yang tidak mengalami kondisi financial distress.
ABSTRACT
FINANCIAL DISTRESS PREDICTION ON MANUFACTURING COMPANY LISTED ON BEI
USING MULTINOMIAL LOGIT ANALYSIS
(Empirical Study on Manufacturing Company listed on BEI from year 2007 to 2010)
Aria Gustiyawan NIM: 082114024 Universitas Sanata Dharma
Yogyakarta 2013
The purposes of this study are (1) to determine whether financial ratio of profit margin, liquidity, profitability and leverage can predict which companies who experience financial distress and which are not, (2) to find out the difference between the financial ratio of companies experiencing financial distress and companies that are not.
Type of this study is empirical study. Sample were taken by purposive sampling method. Total sample were 104 manufacturing companies listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange from the year 2007-2010. Variables used in this study were liquidity ratio, profitability, leverage and operating activity ratio. Data were tested by Multinomial Logit test and Levine’s Manova test.
The result of this study indicated that leverage, liquidity and operating activity can be used as a predictor of companies experiencing financial distress. Other result showed that there was financial ratio differences between companies that experience financial distress and companies that did not experience financial distress for two consecutive years.