Saran - ANALISIS PENGARUH INFLASI, SUKU BUNGA DAN NILAI TUKAR TERHADAP PEMBIAYAAN DENGAN DANA P

BAB V PENUTUP

B. Saran

Berdasarkan hasil analisis dan pembahasan serta kesimpulan pada penelitian ini, saran yang dapat diberikan melalui hasil penelitian ini sebagai berikut :

1. Bagi Perbankan Syariah

Untuk meningkatkan pembiayaan Perbankan Syariah di Indonesia harus memerlukan perhatian terhadap dana pihak ketiga (DPK). Agar dana pihak ketiga semakin besar, perlu pengkajian lebih lanjut mengenai optimalisasi sumber-sumber dana pihak ketiga tersebut, diantaranya dengan meningkatkan kepercayaan masyarakat terhadap kinerja, kapabilitas, integritas dan kredibilitas perbankan syariah. Menjamin keamanan dana nasabah, pelayanan dan pengelolaan serta ekspetasi perkiraan pendapatan yang diperoleh dari penyimpanan dana tersebut.

2. Bagi Peneliti Selanjutnya

Adapun penelitian ini masih banyak kekurangan yang perlu diperbaiki dan dikembangkan. Dalam penelitian ini, hanya menggunakan pengaruh eksternal perbankan dan hanya menggunakan tiga variabel makro, padahal banyak variabel makro yang belum diteliti. Untuk itu, bagi peneliti

146

selanjutnya agar mengembangkan penelitian ini dengan menggunakan analisis pengaruh internal dan ekstrnal Perbankan Syariah serta dengan lebih banyak variabel makro yang belum diteliti.

147

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www.bi.go.id www.ojk.co.id

LAMPIRAN 1 A. Data Penelitian

1. Data Variabel Dependen

Periode

VARIABEL DEPENDEN (Dalam Miliar Rupiah)

Pembiayaan Mudharabah Musyarakah Murabahah

01-Jan-13 149.672 12.027 28.092 89.665 01-Feb-13 154.072 12.056 28.896 92.792 01-Mar-13 161.081 12.102 30.857 97.415 01-Apr-13 163.407 12.026 32.288 98.368 01-Mei-13 167.259 12.168 33.743 100.184 01-Jun-13 171.227 12.629 35.057 102.588 01-Jul-13 174.486 13.281 35.997 104.718 01-Agust-13 174.537 13.299 37.883 105.061 01-Sep-13 177.320 13.364 36.715 106.779 01-Okt-13 179.284 13.664 37.921 107.484 01-Nop-13 180.833 13.878 38.680 108.128 01-Des-13 184.122 13.625 39.874 110.565 01-Jan-14 181.398 13.322 38.685 109.803 01-Feb-14 181.772 13.300 39.254 110.047 01-Mar-14 184.964 13.498 40.583 111.727 01-Apr-14 187.885 13.802 42.830 112.288 01-Mei-14 189.690 13.869 44.055 112.820 01-Jun-14 193.136 14.312 45.648 114.322 01-Jul-14 194.079 14.559 46.739 114.128 01-Agust-14 193.983 14.277 47.353 114.002 01-Sep-14 196.563 14.356 48.611 114.891 01-Okt-14 196.491 14.371 48.627 115.088 01-Nop-14 198.376 14.307 50.005 115.602 01-Des-14 199.330 14.354 49.387 117.371 01-Jan-15 197.279 14.207 49.416 115.979 01-Feb-15 197.543 14.147 49.686 116.268 01-Mar-15 200.712 14.136 51.721 117.358 01-Apr-15 201.526 14.388 52.672 117.209 01-Mei-15 203.894 14.906 54.033 117.777 01-Jun-15 206.056 15.667 54.757 118.612 01-Jul-15 204.842 15.728 54.332 117.947 01-Agust-15 205.873 15.676 55.315 118.317

01-Sep-15 208.142 15.190 57.135 119.641 01-Okt-15 207.767 14.924 57.422 119.456 01-Nop-15 209.123 14.680 58.391 120.332 01-Des-15 212.996 14.819 60.713 122.111 01-Jan-16 211.221 14.468 59.638 122.287 01-Feb-16 211.570 14.267 60.844 122.042 01-Mar-16 213.481 14.273 62.737 122.167 01-Apr-16 214.321 14.239 63.321 122.981 01-Mei-16 217.858 14.856 64.515 124.339 01-Jun-16 222.174 15.298 66.312 126.179 01-Jul-16 220.143 14.789 65.712 125.635 01-Agust-16 220.452 14.577 66.680 125.478 01-Sep-16 235.005 14.696 69.228 136.830 01-Okt-16 237.023 14.590 70.706 137.192 01-Nop-16 240.380 14.374 72.647 138.823 01-Des-16 248.007 15.292 78.421 139.536 01-Jan-17 244.465 14.654 76.707 138.498 01-Feb-17 245.815 14.398 77.713 139.075 01-Mar-17 250.536 14.505 80.397 140.610 01-Apr-17 252.290 14.316 81.709 141.274 01-Mei-17 256.832 14.751 84.200 142.988 01-Jun-17 265.317 15.778 89.763 145.004 01-Jul-17 264.334 15.643 91.134 143.035

2. Data Variabel Intervening

Periode

VARIABEL INTERVENING

DPK

(Dalam Miliar Rupiah)

01-Jan-13 148.731 01-Feb-13 150.795 01-Mar-13 156.964 01-Apr-13 158.519 01-Mei-13 163.858 01-Jun-13 163.966 01-Jul-13 166.453 01-Agust-13 170.222 01-Sep-13 171.701 01-Okt-13 174.018 01-Nop-13 176.292

01-Des-13 183.534 01-Jan-14 177.930 01-Feb-14 178.154 01-Mar-14 180.945 01-Apr-14 185.508 01-Mei-14 190.783 01-Jun-14 191.594 01-Jul-14 194.299 01-Agust-14 195.959 01-Sep-14 197.141 01-Okt-14 207.121 01-Nop-14 209.644 01-Des-14 217.858 01-Jan-15 210.761 01-Feb-15 210.297 01-Mar-15 212.988 01-Apr-15 213.972 01-Mei-15 215.338 01-Jun-15 213.477 01-Jul-15 216.082 01-Agust-15 216.356 01-Sep-15 219.580 01-Okt-15 219.477 01-Nop-15 220.635 01-Des-15 231.175 01-Jan-16 229.093 01-Feb-16 231.819 01-Mar-16 232.656 01-Apr-16 233.807 01-Mei-16 238.366 01-Jun-16 241.336 01-Jul-16 243.184 01-Agust-16 244.843 01-Sep-16 263.521 01-Okt-16 264.678 01-Nop-16 270.480 01-Des-16 279.334 01-Jan-17 277.713 01-Feb-17 281.083

01-Mar-17 286.177

01-Apr-17 291.888

01-Mei-17 295.606

01-Jun-17 302.012

01-Jul-17 307.637

3. Data Variabel Independen

Periode VARIABEL INDEPENDEN Inflasi (Dalam Persen) Suku Bunga (Dalam Persen) Nilai Tukar (Dalam Rupiah) 01-Jan-13 4,57 5,75 9.687,33 01-Feb-13 5,31 5,75 9.686,65 01-Mar-13 5,90 5,75 9.709,42 01-Apr-13 5,57 5,75 9.724,05 01-Mei-13 5,47 5,75 9.760,91 01-Jun-13 5,90 6,00 9.881,53 01-Jul-13 8,61 6,50 10.073,39 01-Agust-13 8,79 7,00 10.572,50 01-Sep-13 8,40 7,25 11.346,24 01-Okt-13 8,32 7,25 11.366,90 01-Nop-13 8,37 7,50 11.613,10 01-Des-13 8,38 7,50 12.087,10 01-Jan-14 8,22 7,50 12.179,65 01-Feb-14 7,75 7,50 11.935,10 01-Mar-14 7,32 7,50 11.427,05 01-Apr-14 7,25 7,50 11.435,75 01-Mei-14 7,32 7,50 11.525,94 01-Jun-14 6,70 7,50 11.892,62 01-Jul-14 4,53 7,50 11.689,06 01-Agust-14 3,99 7,50 11.706,67 01-Sep-14 4,53 7,50 11.890,77 01-Okt-14 4,83 7,50 12.144,87 01-Nop-14 6,23 7,75 12.158,30 01-Des-14 8,36 7,75 12.438,29 01-Jan-15 6,96 7,75 12.579,10 01-Feb-15 6,29 7,50 12.749,84 01-Mar-15 6,38 7,50 13.066,82 01-Apr-15 6,79 7,50 12.947,76

01-Mei-15 7,15 7,50 13.140,53 01-Jun-15 7,26 7,50 13.313,24 01-Jul-15 7,26 7,50 13.374,79 01-Agust-15 7,18 7,50 13.781,75 01-Sep-15 6,83 7,50 14.396,10 01-Okt-15 6,25 7,50 13.795,86 01-Nop-15 4,89 7,50 13.672,57 01-Des-15 3,35 7,50 13.854,60 01-Jan-16 4,14 7,25 13.889,05 01-Feb-16 4,42 7,00 13.515,70 01-Mar-16 4,45 6,75 13.193,14 01-Apr-16 3,60 6,75 13.179,86 01-Mei-16 3,33 6,75 13.419,65 01-Jun-16 3,45 6,50 13.355,05 01-Jul-16 3,21 6,50 13.118,82 01-Agust-16 2,79 5,25 13.165,00 01-Sep-16 3,07 5,00 13.118,24 01-Okt-16 3,31 4,75 13.017,24 01-Nop-16 3,58 4,75 13.310,50 01-Des-16 3,02 4,75 13.417,67 01-Jan-17 3,49 4,75 13.358,71 01-Feb-17 3,83 4,75 13.340,84 01-Mar-17 3,61 4,75 13.345,50 01-Apr-17 4,17 4,75 13.306,39 01-Mei-17 4,33 4,75 13.323,35 01-Jun-17 4,37 4,75 13.298,25 01-Jul-17 3,88 4,75 13.342,10

B. Statistik Deskriptif 1. Variabel Dependen Z Z1 Z2 Z3 Mean 204762.6 14194.13 54468.31 118923.9 Median 201526.0 14354.00 52672.00 117371.0 Maximum 265317.0 15778.00 91134.00 145004.0 Minimum 149672.0 12026.00 28092.00 89665.00 Std. Dev. 28097.17 9.533.151 16251.98 13360.00 Skewness 0.345746 -0.705127 0.423567 0.207783 Kurtosis 2.578.982 3.233.577 2.374.564 2.617.274 Jarque-Bera 1.501.999 4.682.735 2.541.016 0.731441 Probability 0.471895 0.096196 0.280689 0.693697 Sum 11261944 780677.1 2995757. 6540816. Sum Sq. Dev. 4.26E+10 49075718 1.43E+10 9.64E+09

Observations 55 55 55 55 2. Variabel Intervening Y Mean 216861.1 Median 213972.0 Maximum 307637.0 Minimum 148731.0 Std. Dev. 42171.23 Skewness 0.426790 Kurtosis 2.337.149 Jarque-Bera 2.676.601 Probability 0.262291 Sum 11927360

Sum Sq. Dev. 9.60E+10

3. Variabel Independen X1 X2 X3 Mean 5.586.545 6.613.636 12393.11 Median 5.470.000 7.250.000 13017.24 Maximum 8.790.000 7.750.000 14396.10 Minimum 2.790.000 4.750.000 9.686.650 Std. Dev. 1.838.793 1.112.657 1.290.971 Skewness 0.183562 -0.727307 -0.856563 Kurtosis 1.664.182 1.889.337 2.676.071 Jarque-Bera 4.398.141 7.675.871 6.966.054 Probability 0.110906 0.021538 0.030714 Sum 3.072.600 3.637.500 681621.2 Sum Sq. Dev. 1.825.826 6.685.227 89996782 Observations 55 55 55 C. Uji Stasioner 1. Variabel Inflasi

Null Hypothesis: D(X1) has a unit root Exogenous: Constant

Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=10)

t-Statistic Prob.*

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -5.554599 0.0000 Test critical values: 1% level -3.560019

5% level -2.917650 10% level -2.596689

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(X1,2)

Method: Least Squares Date: 11/14/17 Time: 15:09

Included observations: 53 after adjustments

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

D(X1(-1)) -0.748412 0.134737 -5.554599 0.0000 C -0.026032 0.104450 -0.249227 0.8042

R-squared 0.376936 Mean dependent var -0.023208 Adjusted R-squared 0.364719 S.D. dependent var 0.954019 S.E. of regression 0.760396 Akaike info criterion 2.327052 Sum squared resid 29.48834 Schwarz criterion 2.401402 Log likelihood -59.66687 Hannan-Quinn criter. 2.355643 F-statistic 30.85357 Durbin-Watson stat 1.874907 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000001

2. Variabel Suku Bunga

Null Hypothesis: D(X2) has a unit root Exogenous: Constant

Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=10)

t-Statistic Prob.*

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -4.903257 0.0002 Test critical values: 1% level -3.560019

5% level -2.917650 10% level -2.596689

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(X2,2)

Method: Least Squares Date: 11/14/17 Time: 15:11

Sample (adjusted): 2013M03 2017M07 Included observations: 53 after adjustments

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

D(X2(-1)) -0.640760 0.130680 -4.903257 0.0000 C -0.012090 0.029767 -0.406144 0.6863

R-squared 0.320380 Mean dependent var 0.000000 Adjusted R-squared 0.307054 S.D. dependent var 0.259437 S.E. of regression 0.215964 Akaike info criterion -0.190402 Sum squared resid 2.378670 Schwarz criterion -0.116051 Log likelihood 7.045642 Hannan-Quinn criter. -0.161810 F-statistic 24.04193 Durbin-Watson stat 2.189891 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000010

3. Variabel Nilai Tukar

Null Hypothesis: D(X3) has a unit root Exogenous: Constant

Lag Length: 1 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=10)

t-Statistic Prob.*

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -5.284821 0.0000 Test critical values: 1% level -3.562669

5% level -2.918778 10% level -2.597285

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(X3,2)

Method: Least Squares Date: 11/14/17 Time: 15:11

Sample (adjusted): 2013M04 2017M07 Included observations: 52 after adjustments

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

D(X3(-1)) -0.929388 0.175860 -5.284821 0.0000 D(X3(-1),2) 0.184636 0.140468 1.314436 0.1948 C 65.04166 36.59520 1.777328 0.0817

R-squared 0.413098 Mean dependent var 0.405385 Adjusted R-squared 0.389143 S.D. dependent var 318.1446 S.E. of regression 248.6533 Akaike info criterion 13.92596 Sum squared resid 3029596. Schwarz criterion 14.03853 Log likelihood -359.0749 Hannan-Quinn criter. 13.96912 F-statistic 17.24464 Durbin-Watson stat 1.938786 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000002

4. Variabel Dana Pihak Ketiga

Null Hypothesis: D(Y) has a unit root Exogenous: Constant

Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=10)

t-Statistic Prob.*

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -8.456769 0.0000 Test critical values: 1% level -3.560019

5% level -2.917650 10% level -2.596689

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(Y,2)

Method: Least Squares Date: 11/14/17 Time: 15:17

Sample (adjusted): 2013M03 2017M07 Included observations: 53 after adjustments

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

D(Y(-1)) -1.171429 0.138520 -8.456769 0.0000 C 3455.072 676.8210 5.104853 0.0000

R-squared 0.583731 Mean dependent var 67.18868 Adjusted R-squared 0.575569 S.D. dependent var 6096.049 S.E. of regression 3971.477 Akaike info criterion 19.44867 Sum squared resid 8.04E+08 Schwarz criterion 19.52302 Log likelihood -513.3897 Hannan-Quinn criter. 19.47726 F-statistic 71.51695 Durbin-Watson stat 1.955298 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000

5. Variabel Jumlah Pembiayaan

Null Hypothesis: D(Z) has a unit root Exogenous: Constant

Lag Length: 3 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=10)

t-Statistic Prob.*

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -3.633908 0.0084 Test critical values: 1% level -3.568308

5% level -2.921175 10% level -2.598551

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(Z,2)

Method: Least Squares Date: 11/14/17 Time: 15:18

Sample (adjusted): 2013M06 2017M07 Included observations: 50 after adjustments

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

D(Z(-1)) -0.989535 0.272306 -3.633908 0.0007 D(Z(-1),2) 0.083633 0.258693 0.323289 0.7480 D(Z(-2),2) -0.136085 0.197305 -0.689722 0.4939 D(Z(-3),2) 0.295414 0.146605 2.015028 0.0499 C 1918.788 652.2992 2.941577 0.0051

R-squared 0.668398 Mean dependent var -96.70000 Adjusted R-squared 0.638922 S.D. dependent var 4347.720 S.E. of regression 2612.534 Akaike info criterion 18.66867 Sum squared resid 3.07E+08 Schwarz criterion 18.85987 Log likelihood -461.7167 Hannan-Quinn criter. 18.74148 F-statistic 22.67622 Durbin-Watson stat 1.957233 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000

6. Variabel Pembiayaan Mudaharabah Null Hypothesis: D(Z1) has a unit root

Exogenous: Constant

Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=10)

t-Statistic Prob.*

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -6.260005 0.0000 Test critical values: 1% level -3.560019

5% level -2.917650 10% level -2.596689

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(Z1,2)

Method: Least Squares Date: 11/14/17 Time: 15:20

Sample (adjusted): 2013M03 2017M07 Included observations: 53 after adjustments

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

D(Z1(-1)) -0.872228 0.139333 -6.260005 0.0000 C 58.63637 48.79565 1.201672 0.2350

R-squared 0.434512 Mean dependent var -3.094340 Adjusted R-squared 0.423424 S.D. dependent var 458.1803 S.E. of regression 347.9081 Akaike info criterion 14.57876 Sum squared resid 6173041. Schwarz criterion 14.65311 Log likelihood -384.3371 Hannan-Quinn criter. 14.60735 F-statistic 39.18766 Durbin-Watson stat 1.944297 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000

7. Variabel Pembiayaan Musyarakah

Null Hypothesis: D(Z2,2) has a unit root Exogenous: Constant

Lag Length: 4 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=10)

t-Statistic Prob.*

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -6.806356 0.0000 Test critical values: 1% level -3.574446

5% level -2.923780 10% level -2.599925

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(Z2,3)

Method: Least Squares Date: 11/14/17 Time: 15:21

Included observations: 48 after adjustments

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

D(Z2(-1),2) -4.266013 0.626769 -6.806356 0.0000 D(Z2(-1),3) 2.377215 0.571873 4.156896 0.0002 D(Z2(-2),3) 1.619947 0.457856 3.538118 0.0010 D(Z2(-3),3) 1.112737 0.297002 3.746561 0.0005 D(Z2(-4),3) 0.611007 0.138030 4.426631 0.0001 C 112.8719 177.2276 0.636875 0.5277

R-squared 0.888906 Mean dependent var -79.54167 Adjusted R-squared 0.875680 S.D. dependent var 3470.738 S.E. of regression 1223.748 Akaike info criterion 17.17369 Sum squared resid 62897435 Schwarz criterion 17.40759 Log likelihood -406.1686 Hannan-Quinn criter. 17.26208 F-statistic 67.21152 Durbin-Watson stat 2.128789 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000

8. Variabel Pembiayaan Murabahah

Null Hypothesis: D(Z3) has a unit root Exogenous: Constant

Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=10)

t-Statistic Prob.*

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -7.475081 0.0000 Test critical values: 1% level -3.560019

5% level -2.917650 10% level -2.596689

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(Z3,2)

Method: Least Squares Date: 11/14/17 Time: 15:21

Sample (adjusted): 2013M03 2017M07 Included observations: 53 after adjustments

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

D(Z3(-1)) -1.058084 0.141548 -7.475081 0.0000 C 1008.629 292.5732 3.447440 0.0011

R-squared 0.522815 Mean dependent var -96.15094 Adjusted R-squared 0.513459 S.D. dependent var 2635.346 S.E. of regression 1838.220 Akaike info criterion 17.90799 Sum squared resid 1.72E+08 Schwarz criterion 17.98234 Log likelihood -472.5617 Hannan-Quinn criter. 17.93658 F-statistic 55.87684 Durbin-Watson stat 1.972749 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000

LAMPIRAN 2 A. Uji statistik

1. Analisis Persamaan Jumlah Pembiayaan

Dependent Variable: D(Z) Method: Least Squares Date: 10/22/17 Time: 18:51

Sample (adjusted): 2013M02 2017M07 Included observations: 54 after adjustments

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C 621.3685 387.9408 1.601710 0.1156 D(X1) 59.80360 407.6835 0.146691 0.8840 D(X2) 200.5392 1431.661 0.140075 0.8892 D(X3) 0.053077 1.284711 0.041314 0.9672 D(Y) 0.510717 0.078442 6.510736 0.0000

R-squared 0.472706 Mean dependent var 2123.370 Adjusted R-squared 0.429661 S.D. dependent var 2950.641 S.E. of regression 2228.347 Akaike info criterion 18.34393 Sum squared resid 2.43E+08 Schwarz criterion 18.52809 Log likelihood -490.2861 Hannan-Quinn criter. 18.41495 F-statistic 10.98180 Durbin-Watson stat 2.205956 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000002

2. Analisis Persamaan Pembiayaan Mudharabah

Dependent Variable: D(Z1) Method: Least Squares Date: 10/22/17 Time: 18:57

Sample (adjusted): 2013M02 2017M07 Included observations: 54 after adjustments

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C 16.25798 59.28871 0.274217 0.7851 D(X1) 8.832681 62.30597 0.141763 0.8878 D(X2) 313.9971 218.7997 1.435089 0.1576 D(X3) 0.006242 0.196341 0.031790 0.9748 D(Y) 0.019102 0.011988 1.593353 0.1175

R-squared 0.094536 Mean dependent var 66.96296 Adjusted R-squared 0.020620 S.D. dependent var 344.1230 S.E. of regression 340.5566 Akaike info criterion 14.58706 Sum squared resid 5682961. Schwarz criterion 14.77123 Log likelihood -388.8507 Hannan-Quinn criter. 14.65809 F-statistic 1.278972 Durbin-Watson stat 1.862436 Prob(F-statistic) 0.291057

3. Analisis Persamaan Pembiayaan Musyarakah Dependent Variable: D(Z2,2)

Method: Least Squares Date: 10/22/17 Time: 18:58

Sample (adjusted): 2013M03 2017M07 Included observations: 53 after adjustments

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C -456.7831 333.2326 -1.370763 0.1768 D(X1) -359.9457 350.0301 -1.028328 0.3089 D(X2) -613.9395 1216.594 -0.504638 0.6161 D(X3) 0.001881 1.092960 0.001721 0.9986 D(Y) 0.150731 0.066724 2.259007 0.0285

R-squared 0.115771 Mean dependent var 10.69811 Adjusted R-squared 0.042085 S.D. dependent var 1934.694 S.E. of regression 1893.545 Akaike info criterion 18.01988 Sum squared resid 1.72E+08 Schwarz criterion 18.20575 Log likelihood -472.5268 Hannan-Quinn criter. 18.09136 F-statistic 1.571138 Durbin-Watson stat 2.821155 Prob(F-statistic) 0.197187

4. Analisis Persamaan Pembiayaan Murabahah

Dependent Variable: D(Z3) Method: Least Squares Date: 10/22/17 Time: 18:59

Sample (adjusted): 2013M02 2017M07 Included observations: 54 after adjustments

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C 119.5489 247.4615 0.483101 0.6312 D(X1) 337.0186 260.0551 1.295951 0.2011 D(X2) -184.9179 913.2347 -0.202487 0.8404 D(X3) 0.221743 0.819498 0.270584 0.7878 D(Y) 0.290433 0.050037 5.804357 0.0000

R-squared 0.442431 Mean dependent var 988.3333 Adjusted R-squared 0.396915 S.D. dependent var 1830.357 S.E. of regression 1421.428 Akaike info criterion 17.44473 Sum squared resid 99002463 Schwarz criterion 17.62890 Log likelihood -466.0078 Hannan-Quinn criter. 17.51576 F-statistic 9.720380 Durbin-Watson stat 1.831926 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000007

5. Analisis Persamaan Dana Pihak Ketiga

Dependent Variable: D(Y) Method: Least Squares Date: 11/13/17 Time: 20:52

Sample (adjusted): 2013M02 2017M07 Included observations: 54 after adjustments

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C 2826.324 573.9421 4.924406 0.0000 D(X1) 668.9860 728.8873 0.917818 0.3631 D(X2) -1101.354 2576.400 -0.427478 0.6709 D(X3) 1.544493 2.305849 0.669815 0.5061

R-squared 0.026964 Mean dependent var 2942.704 Adjusted R-squared -0.031418 S.D. dependent var 3955.765 S.E. of regression 4017.427 Akaike info criterion 19.50586 Sum squared resid 8.07E+08 Schwarz criterion 19.65319 Log likelihood -522.6582 Hannan-Quinn criter. 19.56268 F-statistic 0.461849 Durbin-Watson stat 2.369223 Prob(F-statistic) 0.710178

LAMPIRAN 3

A. Uji Asumsi Klasik 1. Uji Normalitas

a. Uji Normalitas Persamaan Jumlah Pembiayaan

b. Uji Normalitas Persamaan Pembiayaan Mudharabah

0 2 4 6 8 10 -8000 -6000 -4000 -2000 0 2000 4000 6000 Series: Residuals Sample 2013M01 2017M07 Observations 55 Mean 2.33e-11 Median 237.5730 Maximum 5152.623 Minimum -8867.471 Std. Dev. 2765.855 Skewness -0.704010 Kurtosis 3.947414 Jarque-Bera 6.600263 Probability 0.086878 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 -400 0 400 800 Series: Residuals Sample 2013M01 2017M07 Observations 55 Mean 1.45e-12 Median -19.30267 Maximum 944.1222 Minimum -674.1846 Std. Dev. 388.8178 Skewness 0.550514 Kurtosis 2.746745 Jarque-Bera 2.925083 Probability 0.231647

c. Uji Normalitas Persamaan Pembiayaan Musyarakah

d. Uji Normalitas Persamaan Pembiayaan Murabahah

e. Uji Normalitas Persamaan Dana Pihak Ketiga

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 -4000 -2000 0 2000 4000 Series: Residuals Sample 2013M01 2017M07 Observations 55 Mean 1.01e-11 Median 202.8462 Maximum 3643.099 Minimum -4479.631 Std. Dev. 1529.206 Skewness -0.422895 Kurtosis 3.579563 Jarque-Bera 2.409120 Probability 0.299824 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 -6000 -4000 -2000 0 2000 4000 Series: Residuals Sample 2013M01 2017M07 Observations 55 Mean 1.23e-11 Median -615.2604 Maximum 4254.850 Minimum -5896.905 Std. Dev. 2125.969 Skewness -0.111875 Kurtosis 3.188933 Jarque-Bera 0.196533 Probability 0.906408 0 2 4 6 8 10 -30000 -20000 -10000 0 10000 20000 30000 Series: Residuals Sample 2013M01 2017M07 Observations 55 Mean -1.07e-11 Median -1898.765 Maximum 28022.72 Minimum -28071.22 Std. Dev. 12055.53 Skewness 0.264318 Kurtosis 2.775273 Jarque-Bera 0.756153 Probability 0.685178

2. Uji Autokorelasi

a. Uji Autokorelasi Persamaan Jumlah Pembiayaan

Dependent Variable: D(Z) Method: Least Squares Date: 10/22/17 Time: 19:15

Sample (adjusted): 2013M02 2017M07 Included observations: 54 after adjustments

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C 621.3685 387.9408 1.601710 0.1156 D(X1) 59.80360 407.6835 0.146691 0.8840 D(X2) 200.5392 1431.661 0.140075 0.8892 D(X3) 0.053077 1.284711 0.041314 0.9672 D(Y) 0.510717 0.078442 6.510736 0.0000

b. Uji Autokorelasi Persamaan Pembiayaan Mudharabah

Dependent Variable: D(Z1) Method: Least Squares Date: 10/22/17 Time: 19:32

Sample (adjusted): 2013M02 2017M07 Included observations: 54 after adjustments

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C 16.25798 59.28871 0.274217 0.7851 D(X1) 8.832681 62.30597 0.141763 0.8878 D(X2) 313.9971 218.7997 1.435089 0.1576 D(X3) 0.006242 0.196341 0.031790 0.9748 D(Y) 0.019102 0.011988 1.593353 0.1175

c. Uji Autokorelasi Persamaan Pembiayaan Musyarakah Dependent Variable: D(Z2,2)

Method: Least Squares Date: 10/22/17 Time: 19:28

Sample (adjusted): 2013M03 2017M07 Included observations: 53 after adjustments

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

Penyembuhan Masalah Autokorelasi Persamaan Pembiayaan

Musyarakah

Dependent Variable: D(Z2,2) Method: Least Squares Date: 10/22/17 Time: 21:41

Sample (adjusted): 2013M03 2017M07 Included observations: 53 after adjustments

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C 780.4484 250.2846 3.118244 0.0031 D(X1) -287.4968 217.6114 -1.321147 0.1928 D(X2) 428.3890 765.0403 0.559956 0.5782 D(X3) -0.454155 0.680976 -0.666918 0.5081 D(Y) 0.181204 0.041597 4.356192 0.0001 D2_Z2(-1) -1.095163 0.124508 -8.795948 0.0000

R-squared 0.665842 Mean dependent var 10.69811 Adjusted R-squared 0.630293 S.D. dependent var 1934.694 S.E. of regression 1176.362 Akaike info criterion 17.08451 Sum squared resid 65039842 Schwarz criterion 17.30756 Log likelihood -446.7395 Hannan-Quinn criter. 17.17029 F-statistic 18.73041 Durbin-Watson stat 2.184182 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000

d. Uji Autokorelasi Persamaan Pembiayaan Murabahah Dependent Variable: D(Z3)

Method: Least Squares Date: 10/22/17 Time: 19:39

Sample (adjusted): 2013M02 2017M07 Included observations: 54 after adjustments

White Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Standard Errors & Covariance

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C 119.5489 269.5725 0.443476 0.6594 D(X1) 337.0186 195.3219 1.725452 0.0907 D(X2) -184.9179 713.5907 -0.259137 0.7966 D(X3) 0.221743 0.574957 0.385669 0.7014 D(Y) 0.290433 0.121700 2.386458 0.0209

e. Uji Autokorelasi Persamaan Dana Pihak Ketiga

Dependent Variable: D(Y) Method: Least Squares Date: 11/13/17 Time: 20:52

Sample (adjusted): 2013M02 2017M07 Included observations: 54 after adjustments

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C 2826.324 573.9421 4.924406 0.0000 D(X1) 668.9860 728.8873 0.917818 0.3631 D(X2) -1101.354 2576.400 -0.427478 0.6709 D(X3) 1.544493 2.305849 0.669815 0.5061

Penyembuhan Masalah Autokorelasi Persamaan Dana Pihak Ketiga

Dependent Variable: D(Y) Method: Least Squares Date: 11/14/17 Time: 16:01

Sample (adjusted): 2013M03 2017M07 Included observations: 53 after adjustments

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C 3422.253 713.9047 4.793711 0.0000 D(X1) 851.5383 744.2897 1.144095 0.2583 D(X2) -1194.473 2577.935 -0.463345 0.6452 D(X3) 1.424231 2.310431 0.616435 0.5405 D_Y(-1) -0.193895 0.141721 -1.368142 0.1776

R-squared 0.064503 Mean dependent var 2959.283 Adjusted R-squared -0.013455 S.D. dependent var 3991.726 S.E. of regression 4018.490 Akaike info criterion 19.52479 Sum squared resid 7.75E+08 Schwarz criterion 19.71066 Log likelihood -512.4069 Hannan-Quinn criter. 19.59627 F-statistic 0.827409 Durbin-Watson stat 1.974356 Prob(F-statistic) 0.514313

3. Uji Multikolinieritas

a. Persamaan Variabel Independen

1) Variabel Inflasi

Dependent Variable: D(X1) Method: Least Squares Date: 10/22/17 Time: 19:05

Sample (adjusted): 2013M02 2017M07 Included observations: 54 after adjustments

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C -0.084553 0.134040 -0.630804 0.5310 D(X2) 0.705265 0.486510 1.449641 0.1534 D(X3) 0.000177 0.000445 0.396966 0.6931 D(Y) 2.48E-05 2.70E-05 0.917818 0.3631

R-squared 0.068759 Mean dependent var -0.012778 Adjusted R-squared 0.012885 S.D. dependent var 0.778020 S.E. of regression 0.772991 Akaike info criterion 2.394089 Sum squared resid 29.87578 Schwarz criterion 2.541421 Log likelihood -60.64041 Hannan-Quinn criter. 2.450909 F-statistic 1.230599 Durbin-Watson stat 1.624856 Prob(F-statistic) 0.308401

2) Variabel Suku Bunga Dependent Variable: D(X2) Method: Least Squares Date: 10/22/17 Time: 19:07

Sample (adjusted): 2013M02 2017M07 Included observations: 54 after adjustments

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C -0.023723 0.038174 -0.621449 0.5371 D(X1) 0.057190 0.039451 1.449641 0.1534 D(X3) 0.000231 0.000123 1.887710 0.0649 D(Y) -3.31E-06 7.73E-06 -0.427478 0.6709

R-squared 0.113075 Mean dependent var -0.018519 Adjusted R-squared 0.059860 S.D. dependent var 0.227018 S.E. of regression 0.220119 Akaike info criterion -0.118110 Sum squared resid 2.422619 Schwarz criterion 0.029222 Log likelihood 7.188963 Hannan-Quinn criter. -0.061289 F-statistic 2.124854 Durbin-Watson stat 1.648614 Prob(F-statistic) 0.108791

3) Variabel Nilai Tukar Dependent Variable: D(X3) Method: Least Squares Date: 10/22/17 Time: 19:09

Sample (adjusted): 2013M02 2017M07 Included observations: 54 after adjustments

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C 56.28683 41.95618 1.341562 0.1858 D(X1) 17.78701 44.80736 0.396966 0.6931 D(X2) 287.4323 152.2651 1.887710 0.0649 D(Y) 0.005758 0.008596 0.669815 0.5061

R-squared 0.087237 Mean dependent var 67.68093 Adjusted R-squared 0.032471 S.D. dependent var 249.3792 S.E. of regression 245.2970 Akaike info criterion 13.91400 Sum squared resid 3008531. Schwarz criterion 14.06134 Log likelihood -371.6781 Hannan-Quinn criter. 13.97082 F-statistic 1.592905 Durbin-Watson stat 1.811550 Prob(F-statistic) 0.202784

4) Variabel Dana Pihak Ketiga Dependent Variable: D(Y) Method: Least Squares Date: 10/22/17 Time: 19:09

Sample (adjusted): 2013M02 2017M07 Included observations: 54 after adjustments

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C 2826.324 573.9421 4.924406 0.0000 D(X1) 668.9860 728.8873 0.917818 0.3631 D(X2) -1101.354 2576.400 -0.427478 0.6709 D(X3) 1.544493 2.305849 0.669815 0.5061

b. Uji Multikolinieritas Persamaan Jumlah Pembiayaan

Dependent Variable: D(Z) Method: Least Squares Date: 10/22/17 Time: 19:15

Sample (adjusted): 2013M02 2017M07 Included observations: 54 after adjustments

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C 621.3685 387.9408 1.601710 0.1156 D(X1) 59.80360 407.6835 0.146691 0.8840 D(X2) 200.5392 1431.661 0.140075 0.8892 D(X3) 0.053077 1.284711 0.041314 0.9672 D(Y) 0.510717 0.078442 6.510736 0.0000

c. Uji Multikolinieritas Persamaan pembiayaan Mudharabah Dependent Variable: D(Z1)

Method: Least Squares Date: 10/22/17 Time: 18:57

Sample (adjusted): 2013M02 2017M07 Included observations: 54 after adjustments

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C 16.25798 59.28871 0.274217 0.7851 D(X1) 8.832681 62.30597 0.141763 0.8878 D(X2) 313.9971 218.7997 1.435089 0.1576 D(X3) 0.006242 0.196341 0.031790 0.9748 D(Y) 0.019102 0.011988 1.593353 0.1175

Penyembuhan Masalah Multikolinieritas Persamaan pembiayaan

Mudharabah

Dependent Variable: D(Z1) Method: Least Squares Date: 10/22/17 Time: 19:34

Sample (adjusted): 2013M02 2017M07 Included observations: 54 after adjustments

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C 8.808936 59.68351 0.147594 0.8833 D(X1) 26.79010 61.67980 0.434342 0.6659 D(X3) 0.078918 0.191697 0.411679 0.6823 D(Y) 0.018063 0.012093 1.493761 0.1415

R-squared 0.056479 Mean dependent var 66.96296 Adjusted R-squared -0.000132 S.D. dependent var 344.1230 S.E. of regression 344.1458 Akaike info criterion 14.59120 Sum squared resid 5921817. Schwarz criterion 14.73853 Log likelihood -389.9623 Hannan-Quinn criter. 14.64802 F-statistic 0.997663 Durbin-Watson stat 1.719043 Prob(F-statistic) 0.401674

Dependent Variable: D(X1) Method: Least Squares

Sample (adjusted): 2013M02 2017M07 Included observations: 54 after adjustments

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C -0.105541 0.134688 -0.783602 0.4369 D(X3) 0.000354 0.000432 0.819107 0.4165 D(Y) 2.34E-05 2.73E-05 0.857682 0.3951

R-squared 0.029620 Mean dependent var -0.012778 Adjusted R-squared -0.008434 S.D. dependent var 0.778020 S.E. of regression 0.781294 Akaike info criterion 2.398222 Sum squared resid 31.13143 Schwarz criterion 2.508721 Log likelihood -61.75200 Hannan-Quinn criter. 2.440837 F-statistic 0.778360 Durbin-Watson stat 1.540650 Prob(F-statistic) 0.464536

Dependent Variable: D(X3) Method: Least Squares

Sample (adjusted): 2013M02 2017M07 Included observations: 54 after adjustments

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C 52.99352 42.96050 1.233541 0.2230 D(X1) 36.66439 44.76141 0.819107 0.4165 D(Y) 0.005150 0.008804 0.585021 0.5611

R-squared 0.022185 Mean dependent var 67.68093 Adjusted R-squared -0.016161 S.D. dependent var 249.3792 S.E. of regression 251.3862 Akaike info criterion 13.94581 Sum squared resid 3222945. Schwarz criterion 14.05631 Log likelihood -373.5369 Hannan-Quinn criter. 13.98843 F-statistic 0.578554 Durbin-Watson stat 1.573718 Prob(F-statistic) 0.564346

Dependent Variable: D(Y) Method: Least Squares

Sample (adjusted): 2013M02 2017M07 Included observations: 54 after adjustments

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C 2862.876 562.9710 5.085300 0.0000 D(X1) 608.2146 709.1380 0.857682 0.3951 D(X3) 1.294292 2.212387 0.585021 0.5611

R-squared 0.023408 Mean dependent var 2942.704 Adjusted R-squared -0.014890 S.D. dependent var 3955.765 S.E. of regression 3985.107 Akaike info criterion 19.47247 Sum squared resid 8.10E+08 Schwarz criterion 19.58297 Log likelihood -522.7567 Hannan-Quinn criter. 19.51508 F-statistic 0.611199 Durbin-Watson stat 2.319191 Prob(F-statistic) 0.546627

d. Uji Multikolinieritas Persamaan Pembiayaan Musyarakah

Dalam dokumen ANALISIS PENGARUH INFLASI, SUKU BUNGA DAN NILAI TUKAR TERHADAP PEMBIAYAAN DENGAN DANA PIHAK KETIGA SEBAGAI VARIABEL INTERVENING PERBANKAN SYARIAH DI INDONESIA 2013 - 2017 SKRIPSI Diajukan untuk Memenuhi Tugas dan Melengkapi Syarat Guna Memperoleh Gelar Sa (Halaman 164-200)