BAB V. KESIMPULAN DAN SARAN
5.2. Saran
1. Berdasarkan hasil analisis diketahui bahwa Koefisien variabel PDRB tahun sebelumnya mempunyai pengaruh positif terhadap Indeks Pembangunan Manusia artinya pemerintah Kabupaten Deli Serdang harus menjaga kestabilan dan lebih meningkatkan program-program yang dapat menunjang peningkatan pertumbuhan ekonomi di daerah tersebut.
2. Pengeluaran Pemerintah mempunyai pengaruh positif terhadap Indeks Pembangunan Manusia artinya setiap pengeluaran-pengeluaran yang dilakukan haruslah tepat sasaran khususnya peningkatan terhadap sektor pendidikan dan kesehatan guna meningkatkan kualitas sumber daya manusia yang pada akhirnya akan memajukan perekonomian Kabupaten Deli Serdang
3. Keberadaan jumlah penduduk miskin juga dapat mempengaruhi dalam upaya peningkatan kualitas pembangunan manusia. Apabila dalam suatu daerah itu terdapat penduduk miskin dalam jumlah besar tentu akan berdampak kepada sulitnya suatu daerah untuk memajukan potensi daerahnya karena sedikitnya kualitas sumber daya manusia yang memadai. Maka di harapkan pemerintah harus mengurangi jumlah penduduk miskin agar proses peningkatan kualitas sumber daya manusia khususnya di kabupaten Deli Serdang dapat berjalan sesuai rencana.
DAFTAR PUSTAKA
Abdurachim, Lin 1993. Pengantar Masalah Penduduk. Bandung : Penerbit Alumni Arif, Sritua. 1993. Metodologi Penelitian Ekonomi. Jakarta : UI Press.
BPS. Indeks Pembangunan Manusia Provinsi Sumatera Utara
Esmara, Hendra 1997. Masalah Kemiskinan di Indonesia. Jakarta : PT. Rineka Cipta Gujarati, Damodar dan Sumarno Zain. 1999. Ekonometrika Dasar. Jakarta : Erlangga Jhingan, M.L. 2008. Ekonomi Pembangunan dan Perencanaan. Jakarta : PT. Raja
Grafindo Persada
Rahardja, Pratama. 2001. Teori Ekonomi Makro Suatu Pengantar. Jakarta : Lembaga Penelitian Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Indonesia
Remi, Soemitro S. dan Tjiptoherijanto Prijono. 2002. Kemiskinan dan Ketidakmerataan.
Surabaya : Air Langga University Press
Sukirno, Sadono. 2004. Makroekonomi Teori Pengantar. Jakarta : Rajagrafindo Persada Sirojuzilam, 2008. Disparitas Ekonomi dan Perencanaan Regional. Pustaka Bangsa
Press
Suparmoko. 1996. Keuangan Negara dalam Teori dan Praktek, edisi 4. BPPE. Yogyakarta
Tambun, Tulus. 2001. Deli Serdang dalam Angka tahun 2005. Badan Pusat Statistik Provinsi Sumatera Utara.
Tjokroamidjojo, Bintoro. 1987. Pengantar Administrasi Pembangunan.
Jakarta:Lembaga Penelitian, Pendidikan dan Penerangan Ekonomi dan Sosial.
LAMPIRAN 1
LAMPIRAN 2 MODEL : LIN-LIN
Dependent Variable: IPM Method: Least Squares Date: 03/02/10 Time: 17:29 Sample: 1998 2007
Included observations: 10
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 85.84139 3.049804 28.14653 0.0000 PDRB -8.00E-07 4.71E-07 -1.697841 0.1405 PP 1.58E-09 3.18E-09 0.497072 0.6368 JPM -5.79E-05 1.16E-05 -4.978353 0.0025
R-squared 0.874750 Mean dependent var 71.06600 Adjusted R-squared 0.812125 S.D. dependent var 3.531233 S.E. of regression 1.530596 Akaike info criterion 3.978365 Sum squared resid 14.05634 Schwarz criterion 4.099399 Log likelihood -15.89183 F-statistic 13.96809 Durbin-Watson stat 1.883517 Prob(F-statistic) 0.004091
TAHUN IPM (%) PDRB Harga Konstan (Milyar Rupiah) Pengeluaran Pemerintah (Milyar Rupiah) Jumlah Penduduk Miskin (Ribu Jiwa) 1998 78.02 2848752.99 307754814 125027 1999 66.1 3271281.23 117809930 301650 2000 67.14 4039115.95 310411060 277009 2001 70.4 8906440.53 876978946 137074 2002 68.4 8071259.06 808851623 199023 2003 69.6 9102886.70 920514370 170608 2004 71.6 10037638.43 1107312600 165572 2005 72.4 10785182.31 1615192756 102815 2006 73.2 11507509.50 1823074696 98622 2007 73.8 14488213.72 1968026801 94300
LAMPIRAN 3 MODEL : LIN-LOG
Dependent Variable: IPM Method: Least Squares Date: 03/02/10 Time: 17:38 Sample: 1998 2007
Included observations: 10
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 228.0972 38.34030 5.949280 0.0010 LOG(PDRB) -6.849329 2.961530 -2.312767 0.0600 LOG(PP) 2.539297 2.349231 1.080905 0.3213 LOG(JPM) -8.421359 2.206447 -3.816705 0.0088
R-squared 0.904090 Mean dependent var 71.06600 Adjusted R-squared 0.856135 S.D. dependent var 3.531233 S.E. of regression 1.339380 Akaike info criterion 3.711465 Sum squared resid 10.76363 Schwarz criterion 3.832499 Log likelihood -14.55732 F-statistic 18.85290 Durbin-Watson stat 2.100201 Prob(F-statistic) 0.001859
LAMPIRAN 4
MODEL : Distributed Lag untuk PDRB
Dependent Variable: IPM Method: Least Squares Date: 03/02/10 Time: 17:41 Sample (adjusted): 1999 2007
Included observations: 9 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 69.16479 2.642242 26.17656 0.0000 PDRB(-1) -1.09E-07 1.60E-07 -0.679960 0.5267 PP 3.49E-09 1.49E-09 2.337598 0.0666 JPM -1.02E-05 9.31E-06 -1.090628 0.3252
R-squared 0.965172 Mean dependent var 70.29333 Adjusted R-squared 0.944276 S.D. dependent var 2.704053 S.E. of regression 0.638318 Akaike info criterion 2.241141 Sum squared resid 2.037246 Schwarz criterion 2.328796 Log likelihood -6.085132 F-statistic 46.18812 Durbin-Watson stat 2.389799 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000455
LAMPIRAN 5
MODEL : Distributed Lag untuk PDRB LIN-LOG
Dependent Variable: IPM Method: Least Squares Date: 03/02/10 Time: 17:54 Sample (adjusted): 1999 2007
Included observations: 9 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 111.4805 36.48212 3.055758 0.0282 LOG(PDRB(-1)) 2.318039 1.181202 1.962441 0.0605 LOG(PP) 2.897813 1.154401 2.510231 0.0231 LOG(JPM) -4.794332 1.767187 -2.712973 0.0421 R-squared 0.944892 Mean dependent var 70.29333 Adjusted R-squared 0.911827 S.D. dependent var 2.704053 S.E. of regression 0.802941 Akaike info criterion 2.700032 Sum squared resid 3.223572 Schwarz criterion 2.787687 Log likelihood -8.150142 F-statistic 28.57680 Durbin-Watson stat 2.221725 Prob(F-statistic) 0.001423
Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test:
F-statistic 0.557313 Probability 0.622567 Obs*R-squared 2.438042 Probability 0.295519
LAMPIRAN 6
MODEL : Distributed Lag untuk PP
Dependent Variable: IPM Method: Least Squares Date: 03/02/10 Time: 18:07 Sample (adjusted): 1999 2007
Included observations: 9 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 71.02469 4.895518 14.50810 0.0000 PDRB 2.23E-07 3.79E-07 0.589912 0.5809 PP(-1) 7.54E-10 1.15E-09 0.653539 0.5423 JPM -1.97E-05 1.30E-05 -1.515022 0.1902
R-squared 0.945767 Mean dependent var 70.29333 Adjusted R-
squared 0.913228 S.D. dependent var 2.704053 S.E. of regression 0.796536 Akaike info criterion 2.684014 Sum squared resid 3.172350 Schwarz criterion 2.771669 Log likelihood -8.078063 F-statistic 29.06513 Durbin-Watson stat 1.678589 Prob(F-statistic) 0.001368
Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test:
F-statistic 0.783643 Probability 0.532347 Obs*R-squared 3.088394 Probability 0.213483
LAMPIRAN 7
MODEL : Distributed Lag untuk PP LIN-LOG
Dependent Variable: IPM Method: Least Squares Date: 03/02/10 Time: 18:12 Sample (adjusted): 1999 2007
Included observations: 9 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 100.3106 44.12747 2.273202 0.0721 LOG(PDRB) 1.312649 1.763898 0.744175 0.4902 LOG(PP(-1)) 0.128190 0.590967 0.216916 0.8368 LOG(JPM) -4.469833 1.730028 -2.583677 0.0492 R-squared 0.944296 Mean dependent var 70.29333 Adjusted R-squared 0.910873 S.D. dependent var 2.704053 S.E. of regression 0.807270 Akaike info criterion 2.710784 Sum squared resid 3.258420 Schwarz criterion 2.798439 Log likelihood -8.198528 F-statistic 28.25335 Durbin-Watson stat 2.115516 Prob(F-statistic) 0.001462
Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test:
F-statistic 0.423802 Probability 0.688488 Obs*R-squared 1.982647 Probability 0.371085
LAMPIRAN 8
MODEL : Distributed Lag untuk PDRB dan PP
Dependent Variable: IPM Method: Least Squares Date: 03/02/10 Time: 18:17 Sample (adjusted): 1999 2007
Included observations: 9 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 74.28597 2.092430 35.50224 0.0000 PDRB(-1) -1.11E-07 2.61E-07 -0.427163 0.6870 PP(-1) 1.77E-09 1.44E-09 1.229674 0.2735 JPM -2.73E-05 6.38E-06 -4.282224 0.0078
R-squared 0.944035 Mean dependent var 70.29333 Adjusted R-squared 0.910456 S.D. dependent var 2.704053 S.E. of regression 0.809157 Akaike info criterion 2.715455 Sum squared resid 3.273675 Schwarz criterion 2.803110 Log likelihood -8.219545 F-statistic 28.11393 Durbin-Watson stat 2.002148 Prob(F-statistic) 0.001479
LAMPIRAN 9
MODEL : Distributed Lag untuk PDRB dan PP LIN-LOG
Dependent Variable: IPM Method: Least Squares Date: 03/02/10 Time: 18:20 Sample (adjusted): 1999 2007
Included observations: 9 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 120.7927 24.24060 4.983073 0.0042 LOG(PDRB(-1)) 1.139424 1.504511 0.757339 0.4830 LOG(PP(-1)) -0.235443 0.925642 -0.254357 0.8093 LOG(JPM) -5.316473 1.084408 -4.902652 0.0045
R-squared 0.944493 Mean dependent var 70.29333 Adjusted R-squared 0.911190 S.D. dependent var 2.704053 S.E. of regression 0.805837 Akaike info criterion 2.707231 Sum squared resid 3.246865 Schwarz criterion 2.794887 Log likelihood -8.182541 F-statistic 28.35984 Durbin-Watson stat 2.358223 Prob(F-statistic) 0.001449
0 1 2 3 4 5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 Series: Residuals Sample 1999 2007 Observations 9 Mean 7.88e-15 Median 0.092975 Maximum 1.253767 Minimum -0.936594 Std. Dev. 0.634781 Skewness 0.537091 Kurtosis 2.916954 Jarque-Bera 0.435287 Probability 0.804412 LAMPIRAN 10
Ramsey RESET Test:
F-statistic 1.708773 Probability 0.031961 Log likelihood ratio 6.843812 Probability 0.032650
Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: IPM Method: Least Squares Date: 03/02/10 Time: 18:25 Sample: 1999 2007
Included observations: 9
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C -162204.9 99769.01 -1.625805 0.2025 LOG(PDRB(-1)) -1015.673 624.0946 -1.627434 0.2021 LOG(PP) -670.7064 413.0034 -1.623973 0.2028 LOG(JPM) 8833.040 5429.005 1.627009 0.2022 FITTED^2 26.16173 16.11251 1.623690 0.2029 FITTED^3 -0.123790 0.076426 -1.619736 0.2037
R-squared 0.974239 Mean dependent var 70.29333 Adjusted R-squared 0.931303 S.D. dependent var 2.704053 S.E. of regression 0.708736 Akaike info criterion 2.384052 Sum squared resid 1.506918 Schwarz criterion 2.515536 Log likelihood -4.728236 F-statistic 22.69066 Durbin-Watson stat 2.481103 Prob(F-statistic) 0.013715
LAMPIRAN 11
UJI MULTIKOLINEARITAS ANTAR VARIABEL Pdrb(X1) = F (X2,X3)
Dependent Variable: PDRB Method: Least Squares Date: 03/02/10 Time: 18:36 Sample: 1998 2007
Included observations: 10
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 1142714. 2406579. 0.474829 0.6494 PP 0.006198 0.001015 6.106398 0.2205 JPM 6.308638 9.021902 0.699258 0.5070
R-squared 0.920152 Mean dependent var 8305828. Adjusted R-squared 0.897338 S.D. dependent var 3829726. S.E. of regression 1227079. Akaike info criterion 31.12150 Sum squared resid 1.05E+13 Schwarz criterion 31.21227 Log likelihood -152.6075 F-statistic 40.33316 Durbin-Watson stat 1.426072 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000144
PP(X2) =F (X1,X3)
Dependent Variable: PP Method: Least Squares Date: 03/02/10 Time: 18:38 Sample: 1998 2007
Included observations: 10
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 1.85E+08 3.55E+08 0.519959 0.6191 PDRB 135.8458 22.24647 6.106398 0.2105 JPM -1958.504 1166.490 -1.678971 0.1371 R-squared 0.939099 Mean dependent var 9.86E+08 Adjusted R-squared 0.921699 S.D. dependent var 6.49E+08 S.E. of regression 1.82E+08 Akaike info criterion 41.11658 Sum squared resid 2.31E+17 Schwarz criterion 41.20735 Log likelihood -202.5829 F-statistic 53.97063 Durbin-Watson stat 1.503320 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000056
JPM(X3) = F (X1,X2)
Dependent Variable: JPM Method: Least Squares Date: 03/02/10 Time: 18:42 Sample: 1998 2007
Included observations: 10
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 225684.8 50309.84 4.485899 0.0028 PDRB 0.010349 0.014801 0.699258 0.5070 PP -0.000147 8.73E-05 -1.678971 0.1371 R-squared 0.639847 Mean dependent var 167170.0 Adjusted R-squared 0.536946 S.D. dependent var 73037.81 S.E. of regression 49700.83 Akaike info criterion 24.70876 Sum squared resid 1.73E+10 Schwarz criterion 24.79953 Log likelihood -120.5438 F-statistic 6.218084 Durbin-Watson stat 2.156555 Prob(F-statistic) 0.028035