VI. KESIMPULAN DAN SARAN
6.2. Saran
Adapun saran yang bisa disampaikan adalah:
1. Pemerintah sebaiknya mengefektifkan kembali kebijakan yang bertujuan untuk mengurangi laju pertumbuhan penduduk sehingga dapat menurunkan laju pertumbuhan angkatan kerja yang ternyata berpengaruh signifikan secara statistik terhadap tingkat pengangguran. Misalkan, Keluarga Berencana (KB).
2. Pemerintah sebaiknya menetapkan kebijakan makro dan mikro yang terpadu. Misalnya, menstimulus pembangunan sektor-sektor potensial yang dapat menyerap angkatan kerja dengan cepat seperti sektor pertanian, kehutanan, peternakan, dan perikanan. Selain itu, sektor ekonomi kreatif juga dapat dijadikan alternatif potensial dalam penyerapan tenaga kerja. 3. Pembangunan infrastruktur guna meningkatkan penyerapan tenaga kerja
terutama dengan pola padat karya serta pemanfaatan produk dalam negeri. 4. Sebaiknya tidak hanya angka pengangguran yang digunakan sebagai indikator untuk melihat dinamika pasar tenaga kerja di negara sedang berkembang (termasuk Indonesia) di mana peranan sektor informal sangat besar, khususnya jika dikaitkan dengan krisis ekonomi.
5. Untuk penelitian selanjutnya, sebaiknya memperhitungkan penentuan tingkat pengangguran alamiah dan ekspektasi rasional dalam mencari hubungan antara inflasi dan pengangguran di Indonesia.
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Lampiran 1. Data Variabel yang Digunakan
tahun Angkatan kerja (ribu) Pengangguran (ribu) Pekerja (ribu)
1985 63,825.62 1,368.479 62,457.14 1986 70,192.93 1,854.722 68,338.20 1987 72,245.31 1,842.87 70,402.44 1988 74,623.90 2,105.797 72,518.10 1989 75,508.09 2,083.2 73,424.89 1990 77,802.20 1,951.598 75,850.60 1991 78,455.60 2,032.4 76,423.20 1992 80,302.90 2,198.798 78,104.10 1993 81,446.54 2,245.538 79,201.00 1994 85,774.52 3,737.522 82,037.00 1995 86,361.20 6,251.204 80,110.00 1996 89,988.45 4,286.636 85,701.81 1997 91,247.31 4,197.303 87,050.00 1998 92,736.08 5,062.481 87,673.60 1999 94,847.18 6,030.317 88,816.86 2000 95,650.96 5,813.235 89,837.73 2001 98,812.45 8,005.034 90,807.41 2002 100,779.27 9,132.103 91,647.17 2003 102,630.80 9,820.013 92,810.79 2004 103,973.39 10,251.35 93,722.04 2005 105,857.65 10,859.93 94,997.73 2006 106,388.94 1,0932 95,456.94 2007 109,941.36 10,011.14 99,930.22 2008 111,947.27 9,394.515 102,552.75 Sumber: ILO (1985-2009)
Lampiran 1. (Lanjutan)
Tahun Tingkat Pengangguran
(persen)* Inflasi (persen)**
1985 2.14409 4.7294 1986 2.64232 5.8272 1987 2.55085 9.27549 1988 2.82188 8.04317 1989 2.75891 6.41766 1990 2.50841 7.81268 1991 2.59051 9.41054 1992 2.73813 7.53123 1993 2.75707 9.68274 1994 4.35738 8.52061 1995 7.23844 9.43336 1996 4.76354 7.97005 1997 4.59992 6.2299 1998 5.45902 58.3871 1999 6.35793 20.4891 2000 6.07755 3.71838 2001 8.10124 11.5039 2002 9.06149 11.8788 2003 9.56829 6.58572 2004 9.85959 6.24352 2005 10.25899 10.452 2006 10.2755 13.11 2007 9.105893 6.41 2008 8.391911 10.28 Sumber: * ILO, 2009
Lampiran 2. Hasil Regresi Model Dependent Variable: UN
Method: Least Squares Date: 24/06/09 Time: 17:40 Sample (adjusted): 1986 2008
Included observations: 23 after adjustments
Variable
Coefficie
nt Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. INF 0.004659 0.021618 0.215503 0.8317 LNAK 7.799990 4.460189 1.748802 0.0965 UN(-1) 0.573346 0.213248 2.688629 0.0145 C - 86.36316 49.66218 -1.739013 0.0982 R-squared 0.897328 Mean dependent var 5.862816 Adjusted R-squared 0.881117 S.D. dependent var 2.936190 S.E. of regression 1.012382 Akaike info criterion 3.019259 Sum squared resid 19.47341 Schwarz criterion 3.216736 Log likelihood
-
30.72148 F-statistic 55.35193 Durbin-Watson stat 1.736499 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Lampiran 3. Hasil Uji Heteroskedastisitas
White Heteroskedasticity Test:
F-statistic 0.564523 Prob. F(9,13) 0.803116 Obs*R-squared 6.463033 Prob. Chi-Square(9) 0.692829 Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID^2 Method: Least Squares
Date: 24/06/09 Time: 19:03 Sample: 1986 2008
Included observations: 23
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 1551.351 19016.70 0.081578 0.9362 LNAK -283.2506 3421.088 -0.082795 0.9353 LNAK^2 12.89270 153.8602 0.083795 0.9345 LNAK*INF -0.553556 3.297659 -0.167863 0.8693 LNAK*UN(-1) -2.417993 14.61734 -0.165420 0.8712 INF 6.279375 37.01395 0.169649 0.8679 INF^2 -0.000259 0.004014 -0.064424 0.9496 INF*UN(-1) 0.009013 0.130814 0.068896 0.9461 UN(-1) 28.60598 162.5603 0.175972 0.8630 UN(-1)^2 -0.053595 0.370066 -0.144826 0.8871 R-squared 0.281001 Mean dependent var 0.846670 Adjusted R-squared -0.216767 S.D. dependent var 1.382801 S.E. of regression 1.525329 Akaike info criterion 3.981317 Sum squared resid 30.24615 Schwarz criterion 4.475010 Log likelihood -35.78515 F-statistic 0.564523 Durbin-Watson stat 1.318264 Prob(F-statistic) 0.803116
Lampiran 4. Hasil Uji Autokorelasi
Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test:
F-statistic 0.342347 Prob. F(1,18) 0.565741 Obs*R-squared 0.429279 Prob. Chi-Square(1) 0.512343
Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID Method: Least Squares Date: 24/06/09 Time: 19:06 Sample: 1986 2008
Included observations: 23
Presample missing value lagged residuals set to zero.
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. LNAK 2.737278 6.518647 0.419915 0.6795 INF -0.001202 0.022098 -0.054394 0.9572 UN(-1) -0.149168 0.334814 -0.445523 0.6613 C -30.38650 72.46960 -0.419300 0.6800 RESID(-1) 0.227050 0.388050 0.585105 0.5657 R-squared 0.018664 Mean dependent var 4.28E-15 Adjusted R-squared -0.199410 S.D. dependent var 0.940827 S.E. of regression 1.030371 Akaike info criterion 3.087375 Sum squared resid 19.10995 Schwarz criterion 3.334221 Log likelihood -30.50481 F-statistic 0.085587 Durbin-Watson stat 1.914436 Prob(F-statistic) 0.985810
Lampiran 5. Hasil Uji Normalitas
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 -2 -1 0 1 2 Series: Residuals Sample 1986 2008 Observations 23 Mean 4.28e-15 Median 0.090916 Maximum 2.402412 Minimum -2.038443 Std. Dev. 0.940827 Skewness 0.268693 Kurtosis 3.551443 Jarque-Bera 0.568170 Probability 0.752703
Lampiran 6. Hasil Uji Multikolinearitas
INF LNAK UN(-1)
INF 1.000000 0.113954 -0.030270 LNAK 0.113954 1.000000 0.930502 UN(-1) -0.030270 0.930502 1.000000
Lampiran 7. Hasil Uji Klein
1) INF sebagai Variabel Dependen Dependent Variable: INF
Method: Least Squares Date: 24/06/09 Time: 19:12 Sample (adjusted): 1986 2008
Included observations: 23 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. LNAK 80.08939 42.51673 1.883715 0.0742 UN(-1) -3.694881 2.045179 -1.806630 0.0859 C -881.7646 474.3397 -1.858931 0.0778 R-squared 0.151463 Mean dependent var 11.09609 Adjusted R-squared 0.066609 S.D. dependent var 10.83888 S.E. of regression 10.47168 Akaike info criterion 7.656334 Sum squared resid 2193.122 Schwarz criterion 7.804442 Log likelihood -85.04784 F-statistic 1.784989 Durbin-Watson stat 2.067900 Prob(F-statistic) 0.193512
2) LNAK sebagai Variabel Dependen Dependent Variable: LNAK
Method: Least Squares Date: 24/06/09 Time: 19:13 Sample (adjusted): 1986 2008
Included observations: 23 after adjustments
Variable
Coefficie
nt Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. INF 0.001881 0.000999 1.883715 0.0742 UN(-1) 0.044967 0.003633 12.37894 0.0000
C 11.13395 0.025709 433.0739 0.0000
R-squared 0.886051 Mean dependent var 11.40625 Adjusted R-squared 0.874656 S.D. dependent var 0.143359 S.E. of regression 0.050755 Akaike info criterion -3.002519 Sum squared resid 0.051521 Schwarz criterion -2.854411 Log likelihood 37.52897 F-statistic 77.75871 Durbin-Watson stat 1.082254 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
3) UN(-1) sebagai Variabel Dependen Dependent Variable: UN(-1)
Method: Least Squares Date: 24/06/09 Time: 19:14 Sample (adjusted): 1986 2008
Included observations: 23 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. LNAK 19.67114 1.589080 12.37894 0.0000 INF -0.037971 0.021018 -1.806630 0.0859 C -218.3613 18.10170 -12.06303 0.0000 R-squared 0.884658 Mean dependent var 5.591172 Adjusted R-squared 0.873124 S.D. dependent var 2.980254 S.E. of regression 1.061558 Akaike info criterion 3.078460 Sum squared resid 22.53810 Schwarz criterion 3.226568 Log likelihood -32.40229 F-statistic 76.69856 Durbin-Watson stat 1.158247 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Lampiran 8. Hasil Uji Ramsey RESET
Ramsey RESET Test:
F-statistic 0.352310 Prob. F(2,17) 0.708075 Log likelihood ratio 0.934083 Prob. Chi-Square(2) 0.626854
Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: UN Method: Least Squares Date: 24/06/09 Time: 22:53 Sample: 1986 2008
Included observations: 23
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. INF -0.007001 0.026353 -0.265680 0.7937 LNAK -7.383865 18.76497 -0.393492 0.6988 UN(-1) -0.867228 1.804531 -0.480584 0.6369 C 85.35311 212.1063 0.402407 0.6924 FITTED^2 0.399787 0.479267 0.834163 0.4158 FITTED^3 -0.021009 0.025029 -0.839406 0.4129 R-squared 0.901414 Mean dependent var 5.862816 Adjusted R-squared 0.872419 S.D. dependent var 2.936190 S.E. of regression 1.048764 Akaike info criterion 3.152560 Sum squared resid 18.69840 Schwarz criterion 3.448776 Log likelihood -30.25444 F-statistic 31.08782 Durbin-Watson stat 1.867030 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Lampiran 9. Hasil Uji Chow Breakpoint
Chow Breakpoint Test: 1997
F-statistic 0.688316 Prob. F(4,15) 0.611198 Log likelihood ratio 3.875943 Prob. Chi-Square(4) 0.423055
Lampiran 10. Hasil Uji Granger Causality
Pairwise Granger Causality Tests Date: 24/06/09 Time: 19:22 Sample: 1985 2008
Lags: 1
Null Hypothesis: Obs F-Statistic Probability
INF does not Granger Cause UN 23 0.10097 0.75396 UN does not Granger Cause INF 0.03010 0.86400