Climate Change & Adaptation
4. Result and Discussion
Climate change may refer to a change in average weather conditions, or in the time variation of weather around longer-term average conditions. Tangail has warm temperatures throughout the year, with relatively little variation from month to month. January tends to be
the coolest month and May the warmest. In Tangail the average January temperature is about 19°C (about 66°F), and the average May temperature is about 29°C (about 84°F). Agriculture related to the climate change. Agriculture must need to good weather condition growing cultivation.
This research showing season wise average Temperature and Rainfall of Tangail district around 26 years. Collected data from the Bangladesh meteorological department, analysis the changing trends of climatic variability in Tangail district. Just as weather is constantly changing and variables so is climate. It is variables on all time and special scales. This study has proved that climate change really impact on agriculture. This study capable to find out potential adaptation options available for marginal change of existing agricultural systems in Tangail district, often variations of existing climate risk management. This research shown that implementation of these options is likely to have substantial benefits under moderate climate change for some cropping systems. However, there are limits to their effectiveness under more severe climate changes. Hence, more systemic changes in resource allocation need to considered, such as targeted diversification of production systems and livelihoods.
This research argue that achieving increased adaptation action will necessitate integration of climate change-related issues with other risk factors, such as climate variability and market risk, and with other policy domains, such as sustainable development.
4.1 Season wise variation of average Temperature of Tangail district (1987-2013)
A temperature is an objective comparative measure of hot or cold. It measured by a thermometer, which may work through the bulk behavior of a thermometric material, detection of thermal radiation, or particle kinetic energy. Temperature is must important for growing crops, but in a standard scale. Table 1.1 represents the twenty-six years temperature data of Tangail district. These data has collected from the Bangladesh meteorological department and used for analysis the variation of climate change impact on agriculture.
Table 1.1: Season wise Temperature data of Tangail district from 1987 to 2013
Kharif-I Kharif-II Rabi
Year (March to June) (July to October) (November to February)
Average ( oCelsius) Average ( oCelsius) Average ( oCelsius)
1987 28.60 28.36 22.03
1988 27.61 28.68 21.30
1989 28.26 28.49 19.67
1990 26.89 28.24 21.05
1991 27.38 28.43 20.24
1992 28.38 28.41 19.81
1993 26.70 28.47 20.89
1994 27.72 28.63 20.33
1995 28.40 28.56 20.19
1996 28.19 28.62 20.65
1997 27.14 28.16 19.92
1998 27.33 29.25 20.83
1999 * 28.49 21.41
2000 27.38 28.72 20.34
2001 27.50 29.03 20.49
2002 27.22 28.61 20.91
2003 27.49 29.01 20.00
2004 28.41 28.33 20.42
2005 28.39 28.74 20.98
2006 28.05 29.02 21.46
2007 27.74 28.84 20.22
2008 28.16 28.69 20.29
2009 28.62 29.14 20.91
2010 29.16 29.39 20.57
2011 27.87 29.12 19.97
2012 28.52 28.97 19.87
2013 28.30 29.02 20.20
* missing data Source: BMD, 2015
Average temperature variation shows the (Fig.1.2) between 1987 to 2013 years. The lowest average temperature was 26.89 oC in 1990 in kharif-I season and highest average temperature was 29.16 oC in 2010 in the same season. For this climatic variation of 20 years, crop production has affected by the impact of climate.
Season wise variation of average Temperature: Kharif-I 30
C 29o
Temperature 28
27 26 25
1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Year
Source: BMD, 2015 Figure 1.2: Temperature variation of Tangail district
(1987-2013)
Season wise variation of average Temperature: Kharif-II 29.5
oC
29
Temperature
28.5 28
27.5 Year
Source: BMD, 2015 Figure 1.3: Temperature variation of Tangail district
(1987-2013)
Temperature variation of kharif-II season shows on (Fig.1.3), here the lowest average temperature was in 1997 and the highest average temperature was in 2010. This changeable variation made up cropping pattern change for changing climatic variables. High temperature is unfavorable of crop production, less temperature doing the same result. So, standard temperature needed for bumper production.
Temperature oC
Season wise variation of average Temperature: Rabi 22.5
22 21.5 21 20.5 20 19.5 19 18.5 18
Year
Source: BMD, 2015 Figure 1.4: Temperature variation of Rabi season (1987-2013)
26 year's average Temperature variation of three seasons 35
30
oC 25
20
Temperature
15 10 5 0
Year
Season:Kharif-I (March to June) Season:Kharif-II (July to October) Season: Rabi (November to February)
Source: BMD, 2015 Figure 1.5: Temperature variation trends of Kharif-I, Kharif-II, and Rabi seasons (1987-2013)
The winter or Rabi seasons average temperature represents on (Fig. 1.4). In 1987, the temperature was high in this season but gradually temperature is decreasing day by day.
However, it has a stable condition and good for production last few decades. Probably climatic impact does not more effect in this period of agriculture in Rabi season. Temperature is the most important not only in agriculture but also all fields of natural science, including physics, geology, chemistry, atmospheric sciences, medicine, and biology. This diagram represents the condition and trends of average temperature about 26 years. It shows the temperature gradually increase and decrease all year round in three seasons. High temperature and rainfall is not suitable for the cultivation that we are trying to understand in (Fig.1.5).
4.2 Season wise Average Rainfall of Tangail district (1987-2013)
Rain is liquid water in the form of droplets that have condensed from atmospheric water vapor and then precipitated (Ahrens C D, 2009). Rain is a major component of the water cycle and is responsible for depositing most of the fresh water on the Earth. It provides suitable conditions for many types of ecosystems, as well as water for hydroelectric power plants and crop irrigation. Among the various individual climatic parameters, which influence the growth characteristics of crops in Tangail district the most important considered water?
Limitations in water availability are frequently a restrictive factor in plant development, and water is essential for the maintenance of physiological and chemical processes within the plant, acting as an energy exchanger and carrier of nutrient food supply in solution. In any regional study of agricultural production rainfall is therefore of fundamental importance. The reservoir of water from which crops draw their moisture supply through the soil derived mainly in the form of rainfall, with relatively minor contributions in Tangail district from dew, fog, and snow. Table 1.2 represents the Tangail district Rainfall data of twenty-six years that collected from the Bangladesh meteorological department and used for analysis in this study.
Table 1.2: Season wise average Rainfall data in Tangail district
Kharif-I (March to June) Kharif-II (July to October) Rabi (November to February)
Year Average (mm) Average (mm) Average (mm)
1987 4.31 8.98 0.60
1988 8.66 7.03 1.85
1989 4.76 7.54 0.61
1990 5.52 6.80 0.60
1991 7.77 13.69 1.01
1992 4.31 8.09 0.44
1993 9.00 11.94 0.17
1994 8.11 5.33 0.84
1995 5.00 8.8 1.37
1996 5.26 6.35 0.47
1997 5.73 10.14 0.57
1998 6.10 9.58 0.66
1999 3.38 7.75 0.29
2000 8.01 6.26 0.45
2001 6.87 5.57 0.39
2002 6.48 9.12 0.86
2003 7.35 7.01 0.30
2004 5.81 10.56 0.08
2005 3.83 12.45 0.13
2006 5.61 6.88 0
2007 6.73 10.63 1.17
2008 5.04 9.41 0.64
2009 3.79 7.53 0
2010 7.16 6.56 0.68
2011 5.07 10.37 0.02
2012 4.32 6.85 0.87
2013 4.66 * 0.23
* missing data Source: BMD, 2015
An area may have high or low average rainfall, a high or relatively low variability of rainfall from one year to the next or its rainfall may be concentrated over a short rainy season or spread over a longer period. Figure 1.6 shows how was the Rainfall occurs last few decades in Tangail. The study have shown some year’s rainfall was more and that year crop production must be decrease, on the other hand especially in 1987,1992,1999,2005 and 2009 season rainfall was less for various climatic reason. Therefore, the rainfall variation must be impact in crop production.
10 Season wise Rainfall variation: Kharif-I 15 Season wise Rainfall variation: Kharif- II
8
6 10
mm 4 m m
2 5 0
1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 0
1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Year Year
Source: BMD, 2015 Source: BMD, 2015 Figure 1.7: Average Rainfall variation of Tangail district Figure 1.6: Average Rainfall variation of Tangail district(1987-2013) (1987-2013)
The major cause of rain production is moisture moving along three-dimensional zones of temperature and moisture contrasts. Figure 1.7 represents the variation of average Rainfall between 1987 to 2013 years in kharif-II season. The lowest average rainfall was 5.33 mm in 1994 in kharif-II season and highest average rainfall was 13.69 mm in 1991 in the same season. For this climatic variation of 3 years, crop production has affected more above two years by the impact of climate.
The distribution and selection of crops or the sustainability of veld or the period in which most runoff generated, depend not only on annual amounts, variability, or seasonality, but also on the duration of the rainy season. Figure 1.8 showing the more climatic impact season was Rabi season among the three. Crop production falls in decrease in the years of 1993, 1999, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2009, 2011, and 2013 in Rabi season. On the other hand, high rainfall is harmful for the crop production, for this reason in 1988, 1995, and 2007 Rabi season was highly hampered by the climatic change. This research proved that rainfall is not same every year it is changing by time in rabi season. Variation of rainfall is responsible for the cropping pattern of agriculture. So rainfall variation must impact on agriculture every year in Tangail district region.
Season wise Rainfall variation: Rabi 1.82
1.61.4 1.2
mm 1
0.80.6 0.40.2
1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 20130
Year
Source: BMD, 2015
The average amount of precipitation need not necessarily be a constraint to successfully carrying out an agricultural. Figure 1.9 showing the dynamics of average rainfall among the three seasons of 26 years. More rainfall occur in kharif-I season, little more rainfall occur in kharif-II season, and less rainfall in Rabi season. However, some year rainfall falls and some year it occurs more by the impact of climate change, and that is the main fact and effect in agricultural crop production.
Source: BMD, 2015 Figure 1.9: Average Rainfall Dynamics of Kharif-I, Kharif-II and Rabi seasons (1987-2013)
4.3 Agricultural Crop Calendar
A cropping calendar is a schedule of the crop-growing season from the fallow period and land preparation, to crop establishment and maintenance, to harvest and storage. The crop calendar allows a farmer to plan for input purchase and use, develop cash flow budget for year, determine need credit and period requirement, determine labor requirements and plan for peak usage times, organize contractors for land preparation and harvesting. Using a crop calendar allows better planning of all farm activities and the cost of production. Tangail region agricultural crop calendar presents in (Table 1.3) that represent the season wise variation of agricultural cultivation.
16 26 year's Rainfall variation of three seasons 14
12 Season: Kharif-I
10 (March to June)
mm 8 Season: Kharif-II
(July to October) 6
4 Season: Rabi
2 (November to
February) 0
Year
Table 1.3: Agricultural crop calendar of Tangail region
Kharif-I crops (March-June) Kharif-II crops (July-Oct.) Rabi crops (Nov.-Feb.)
Boro Fallow Mustard
Boro/Fallow B. Aman Mustard/Boro
Fal./Dhaincha Fallow Boro
Jute/Fallow Fal./B.Aman Wheat
Jute/Vegetable Fal./B.Aman Vegetables
Vegetables Fallow Maize
Jute Fallow Maize
Dhaincha Dhaincha Maize
Sugarcane Sugarcane Sugarcane
Maize Fallow Tobaco
Fallow T. Aman Boro
Fallow B. Aman Pulses
Vegetables Vegetables Pulses
Sesame Fallow Pulses
Jute Fallow Vegetables
Jute Fallow Tobacco
Fallow B. Aman Spices
Fallow Vegetables vegetables
Vegetables Fallow Spices
Source: BARC
Farmer's Perceptions to Climate Changes
Farmer's perceptions: Change Farmer's perception: Less change
10%
90%
Source: Field Survey, 2015 Figure 1.10: Farmer’s perceptions of changes in climate
4.5 Adaptation strategies with the climate change
Climate change impact on agricultural. In this study climatic variables especially temperature and rainfall are more responsible these kinds of impact. Tangail district is a central district of Bangladesh. They provide lots of production of agriculture and contribute continuously to GDP and GNP. But sometimes Tangail district crop productions are really hampered by climate change. For this reason, they need to Adaptation strategies with the climate change.
Some strategies are integrated below that would be able to help in Tangail district agricultural sector to provide more crops from the barrier of climatic hazard and probably it will be enriched our country economy and national policy.
a) Adaptation plans should prioritize helping people, places, and infrastructure that are most vulnerable to climate impacts and be designed and implemented with meaningful involvement from all parts of society.
b) Adaptation should incorporate into core policies, planning, practices, and programs whenever possible.
c) It should ground in the best-available scientific understanding of climate change risks, impacts and vulnerabilities.
d) It may require coordination across multiple sectors and scales and should build on the existing efforts and knowledge of a wide range of public and private stakeholders.
e) Adaptation planning should incorporate risk-management methods and tools to help identify, assess and prioritize options to reduce vulnerability to potential environmental, social and economic implications of climate change.
f) Adaptation plans may include measureable goals and performance metrics to assess whether adaptive actions are achieving desired outcomes.
g) Adaptation should, take into account strategies to increase ecosystem resilience and protect critical ecosystem services on which humans depend to reduce vulnerability of human and natural systems to climate change.
h) In which place possible Adaptation, it should use strategies that complement or directly support other related climatic condition or environmental initiatives, such as efforts to improve disaster all preparedness, promote sustainable resource management, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions including the development of cost-effective technologies.
5. Conclusion
This study has remarked some crucial findings after the useful research. The process of adaptation is not new, people have been adapting to changing conditions, including natural long-term changes in climate. This investigation are capable to climate change adaptation, but in a very small scale. Due to unplanned work, Lack of high cost, Scarcity of high Technology, over population, uncertain forces of natural calamity, Absence of proper distribution of Industry, more unemployment, don’t appropriate preparedness for adaptation yet,
Government unable to carry right track, People do not have decent awareness etc.
Agricultural crops can be destroyed by flood, not only flood but also some climate change related factors through, high temperature, Rainfall, tropical cyclone, storm surge, erosion, back water effect etc. Although we are developing country, but with the process of adaptation with climate change gradually we will touch develop as European country. This research would be best help to enlighten the Tangail district agricultural sector and enrich our local government and national government policy.
6. References
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Dhaka
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Bangladesh Agricultural Research Councial (2014), Dhaka, Bangladesh.
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Bangladesh Agricultural Research Institute (2014), Joydebpur, Gagipur, Bangladesh.
Title: Organic Farming Prospects and Constraints in Bangladesh: a case study of Daynna Union of Tangail Sadar Upazila
Md. Sariful Islam, Md. Nasir Uddin, Mizanur Rahman, Tazwar Muttaqi 1. Introduction
Bangladesh is one of the most densely populated countries in the world with more than 160 million people. Due to its very small territory (147,570 square kilometers), the amount of additional land available to be brought into cultivation is very limited (BBS, 2006). The country has 8.20 million hectare arable land against the huge population (Hassan, 2011).
The land area is steadily decreasing due to its population growth, rapid industrialization and infrastructural development. As a result, the amount of per capita land declined from 0.13 hectare in 1960 to 0.06 hectare in 2000. However, agriculture plays a pivotal role in overall economic development of the country. More than 70% of the population depends on agriculture (Jensen, 2000). Thus, the agriculture sector in Bangladesh is the most important sector in terms of sustaining growth and reducing poverty. However, a lack of adequate nutrient supply, the depletion of organic matter in soils, and soil erosion are major obstacles to sustainable improvements in agricultural production (MoA, 2008). The total amount of fertilizer used in Bangladesh has increased by about 1.55 million tons from 1994–95 to 2006–07, although the use of urea fertilizer has only increased by about 0.95 million tons over this period (BER, 2008). The use of pesticides increased from 7,350 metric tons in 1991 to 16,200 metric tons in 2001 (MoA, 2005), more than doubling over the course of a decade. Among this huge amount of pesticides, insecticides accounted for about 90%, and are generally used for vegetables and Boro rice (UNDP, 2006). This huge consumption of chemical fertilizers and pesticides applied to 7.32 million hectares of cultivated land (BBS, 2008) represents an over-use of agro-chemicals and a waste of foreign currency reserves, as the country imports most of the applied agro-chemicals, except for urea fertilizers. Given the challenges that arise from the over-use of agro- chemicals, a key policy intervention for sustainable agriculture is to encourage the adoption of agricultural technologies that rely to a greater extent on local or renewable resources. Organic farming (OF) is one such technology that can reduce the harmful impacts of agro-chemicals, and is considered by many scientists to be the best form of agriculture in terms of maximizing cost-effectiveness and minimizing pollution (Christian et al. 2005).
1.1 Statement of the problem
Before the introduction of chemicals, Bangladesh agriculture was fully dependent on the organic sources of fertilizers (animal manure, crop residues and domestic wastes) to fertile the land. In 1960s, with the introduction of green revolution, to follow former agricultural policy - to meet the demand of food for increasing population, some farmers started to use chemical fertilizers. Some of them used both chemical and organic fertilizers and some of them didn’t adopt chemicals fertilizers due to conservativeness or lack of infrastructural facility (Hossain, 2001). The objectives of the organic farming are mainly to protect natural and agricultural resource bases from further degradation and to ensure long term
sustainability in agricultural system. Therefore, the understanding of organic farming status in Daynna union of Tangail Sadar Upazila, Bangladesh is necessary and also necessary to identify Constraints of organic farming in Daynna Union for visualize the overall status of organic farming in our country.
1.2 Objectives
The objectives of this research are mainly to protect natural and agricultural resource bases from further degradation and to ensure long term sustainability in agricultural system.
Based on the above mentioned situation, the specific objectives of the study are:
1. To identify the present status of organic farming in Daynna Union of Tangail Sadar Upazila.
2. To look for the constraints of organic farming in Daynna Union of Tangail Sadar Upazila.
3. To know about the awareness status of organic farming in Daynna Union of Tangail Sadar Upazila.
1. Material and Methods