Model Designing for Sustainable New City Development: A Case Study for South Tangerang City, Indonesia

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Joumal of ｅｯｶｾ＠ and Eanb Science ISSN 2224-3216 (Paper) 5SN 2225-0948 (Online) Vol.5. No.8. 2015

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Model Designing for Sustainable New City Development: A Case

Study for South Tangerang City, Indonesia

Herl Apriyanto1J• Eriyatno2 Ernan Rustiadi2 lkbwanuddin Mawardy3

I .Doctoral Program Student of Natural Resources and Environment Management Program, Graduate School. Bogor Agricultural University, IPB Campus Baranangsiang, Bogor, Indonesia

2.Graduate School, Bogor Agricultural University, IPB Campus Baranangsiang, Bogor, Indonesia 3 .National Agency for Assessment and Application of Technology (BPPT), Jakarta, Indonesia

•E-mail

of the corresponding author: heriap@yaboo.com

Abstract

Development of new city is expected to solve such problems as population pressure reduction in large cities, regional economic development. etc., but the reality does not correspond to the objectives. The development of a new city bas brought convenience to the people's production and life. However, at the

same

time, with the increasing of urban factor intensity, the problems such as the traffic, security, i.nfrastructmc, and environment

and others

are

growing. A case study of the research was conducted in the South Tangerang City, Banrm

Province, lndoocsia. The development of this city had only focused oo ccooomic aspect, other aspects such as

environmental (especially on environmental carrying capacity) and social aspect should be paid sufficient attention. Therefore, in city development control should be implemented in ensuring sustainable cities development. Assessment on sustainable cities development is systematically, because city growth is affected by behavior of clements such as economic, ecology and social clements which constructed a city. The aim of research was to design a model designing for sustainable development of South Tangerang City. System dynamics approach was employed to develop the model. The model contain of some sub model. i.e.: Population

and Labor, Regiooal F.conomic, Environmental Condition, and Infrastructure and Transponation sub model. Some scenario were determined and simulated to predict economic, social and environmental impact. Recommended policies to achieve its sustainability i.e. increasing investment, green open space, vertical settlement, road capacity, and budget for the environmental sector.

Keywords: Sustainable New City Development, System Dynamics, South Tangerang City, scenario

I. Introduction

Over 50% of the world's population lives in cities, and although ·Covering only 3% of the world's land

mass,

they consume 75% of the world's

resources

and emit a corresponding proportion of greenhouse gas emissions

(Scymoar

n

al. 2009). During the past decades, w-ban residcotial development bas speed up cxcrcmcly with massive population mobility in cities. In 2009, the United Nations estimated that the world's population is projected to reach 7 billion in late 2011, up from the current 6.8 billion, and surpass 9 billion people by 2050 (United Nations, 2009).

Urban residential areas, facing restriction by social-economic level, environmental pressure, population pressure and traffic pressure, etc, attract growing attentions nowadays as an important component of suslainability study. Sustainability is a multi-dimensional concept that takes into acoount different elements of territorial development, such as economic growth, well-being of population, environmental quality, etc. (Bruntland 1987).

Jakarta, the capiw of Indonesia, expanded from 180 lan2 in 1960 to a _{fully urbanized}metropolis in the

1970s. Today, as a mega-city, Jakarta's nucleus area bas spatially and economically expanded beyond its original fringes. Jakarta bas increasingly been integrated with eight other proximate cities, and called as Jabodetabek Metropolit.ao area.. Now, Jabodetabck cocompa.sscs a total land of 6,580 lan2, with Jabrta area is 656 lun2 and 9.6 million inhabitants (Hasibuan ｾｲ＠ al. 2014). Jabodetabelc is compose.cl of 9 independent municipalities; Jakarta, Bogor (Regency/City), Tangerang (Regency/City), Bek.asi (Regency/City), Depolc (City)

and South Tangerang (City) with 21 million ｩｾｩｴ｡ｯｴｳＮ＠

Developing of buffer area of Jakarta such as Bumi Scrpong Damai/BSD, Bintaro Jaya, Alam Sutera

and Pamulang-Ciputal are an implementation of government policies which regulated by issuing President lnsttuction No. 13/1976 on Jabotabck Development. The policy was focused on reducing population explosion of Jakarta, enhancing industrial and trade growth in surrounding area of Jalcarta, developing new center of settlement and harmonizing development among Jakarta and it.<; surrounding areas.

South Tangerang is newest established city in surrounding Jakarta. The city

was

established formally in 2008. The city has been growing fast both in population and economic aspect. Recently, the city could be

cla.<;.o;ified ao; metropolitan area; due to the population are more than one million peoples. In ensuring sustainable city development, appropriate policies should be applied by government. A certain model should be developed to support decision process in city management.

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Journal of Environment and &111 Science ISSN 2224-3216 (Plipc:r) ISSN 2225.()1)48 (Online) Vol.S, No.8, 2015

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In essence. the city is a socio-ecooomic entity of high concentration of the production aod living factors composed of the mutual integration of the natural, artificial. and socio-economic cnvirorunent. This determines the survival and development of the city is bound to consume a large amount of material and natural

resolD'Ccs. Meanwhile. in this process. it will also produce a lot of

wastes.

which causes a devastating effect on

the narural environment. cvcnwally leading to the unsustainable development of the city (Dou tt al. 2013). Sustainable city development is systemic phenomena. which growth of a city was

gcnenued

by behavior of each clement such as economic, ecology aod social. 1bc aim of the paper was to design a model which employed to simulate sustainable aspects of the South Tangerang City development using System Dynamics approach.

2. Sustainabk Otics

clan

System

Dynamics

Approach

System dynamics is a technique which uses qualitative and quantitaivc models in order to explain systems and determines the type of the feedback of information which forms the behavior and the structure of the feedback and control policy (Coyle 1998). A system dynamics model is composed of many variables. These variables simplify complex phenomena and provide a description of a system• s current state or problems. Basic variables that describe the real-world urban development can be established from the elements that make up a city's different dimensions such as industry product. population growth and vacancy rate. The urban development framework takes a system-based approach by systemizing the city's internal elements. The systemic variables then provide not only a clear reflection of the interactions between all of the sub-systems but also how they relate

to the overall system (Ho & Wang 2008).

System Dynamics is a realistic rool for sustainability assessment. utilized to better understand the sustainable development in a considered period and forecast the future trends (Xu 2011). System dynamics has the characteristics of stating the relations that form systems. by the help of based figures. graphs and mathematical methods. Therefore managers. governors. economists. population experts and other many concerns may solve the problem they face by this approach (Soyler et.al. 2008).

The city is a regional and geographical conununity composed of the mutual integration of the natural. artificial. and socio-economic environment. and its basic characteristics are the high deru;ity of the population, materials and capitals, space. and activities. From the aspect of system theory to view. the city is a complex great system composed of the subsystem such as the narural. economic. social. coru;tructioo system and so on. In this complex great system. the natural system including the natural conditions. the natural resources and the natural environment is a basis, and the change and development of the economic, social, and building system is built on the basis of natural system. Obviously, if the city's natural system is out of b balance or has been seriously damaged. then the development of the city as a whole will be difficult to sustain (Dou et al. 2013).

Sustainable city is concept that has been paid attention since 1990's. 1bc concept is reflection notion that sustainable economic development

can

only be achieved through effort begun at the local level. In recent years. environmental issues associated with rapid economic development are becoming critical concerns suffered by the national and local governments. Environmental issues associated with rapid economic development arc becoming critical concerns that arouse government's and people's particular attention (Guan et al. 2011 ).

Sustainability refers to maintaining the existence of the ecosystem and its services, while also providing for human needs, whereas, in contrast, urban development refers to any activity that improves the quality of life by depleting nantral resources and devastating natural areas. Sustainability assessment helps policy-makers decide what actions they should and should not take to make our cities more sustainable (Yigitcaolar et al. 2014).The system dynamics method is used in research to assess the impacts of four typical kinds of urbanization policies on land use changes in China. Five subsystems were identified and each subsystem interacted among them. The five subsystem were urbanization subsystem, social subsystem, landuse subsystem, environmental subsystem and economic subsystem (Wu et al. 2011 ).

3.Metbodology

3.1 Prof de of the Study Area

South Tangerang City was established formally in 2008. 1lae city is part of Banten Province which located in peripheral area of Jakarta (see Figure I). Amt of the city is 147,19 lan2 with number of populations· are approximately 1.355.926 peoples, therefore average density of population was 9.544 inhabitants

per

lcm2 (in 2012). Tertiary sectors were biggest contribution in regional economic of the city (approximately 90% of total GROB), while secondary and primary sectors coni:ributed 8,76% and less than 2% (BPS, 2013).

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JoumaJ of Enviroomenl and F.ar1b Science ISSN 2224-3216 Ｈｐ｡ｰ･ｲＩｾ＠ 2225-0948 (Online) Vol..S, No.8, 2015

Figure I. Study Area of South Tangerang City

\llWW.iiSlC.Ofg

Planning area is largely idle land in the 1990s. The land is dominated by land use for farms. Land use changes phenomena from non-built up area into built up area has been in the South Tangcrang City. Land use changes from farmland into human settlement., industrial and commerciaVservice area bas been occured fast. Built up area to about 79% of the total area in 2012. Thus the development of the South Tangcrang city can not be based on land resources, but more oriented towards other sectors, such as services and trade industries.

3.2 Method

System dynamics was employed to develop model of sustainable South Tangcrang City DcvclopmenL System dynamics is a discipline to research system dynamics complexity. It takes the method, which combine qualitative and quantitative research as well as the system synthesis reasoning, to make the analysis of various factors of a feedback loop between cause and effect, from the complex phenomenon in analysis of the phenomenon of the

internal causes and its formation mechanism (Lei et al. 2012). There are four clements defined in an system dynamics, including state variables (stock)_, flow function (flow), auxiliary variables (convenor), and streamline (connector), with decision-malcing feedback loops (Wu et al. 2011).

System dynamics discipline has beeen used for a long time in various areas in order to build quantitative models for strategic problems. The aim is to determine appropriate policies to monitor the behavior of the system model and develop the system (Coyle 1998).The stages of the sustainable new city development system dynamics approach are (see Figure 2):

• Problem definition

• Exploring the behavior patterns system (telling the stories, narrative explanation) of regional development through statistical data exploration and institutional survey.

• Variables Determination (Scoping)

• Model variables determination particularly depend on the objective of model development. Activities to obtain these variables consist of discussion with experts.

• Model structure development consist of causal loop and ｳｹｳｴ･ｾ＠ dynamics diagrams development activities. Model structure will develop through review of developed model.

• Simulation test and validation Logical test of Causal Loop

Structural test of systems dynamics diagrams Logical test of simulation result

- Compare the result of simulation test with historical data • Model simulation for developing scenarios of South Tangerang City

Models which have been develop will used to simulate of development scenarios. • Policy analysis and Implementation

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Joumal of Enviltlomem and F.ar1h Science ｾｎ＠ 2224-3216 (Paper) ISSN 2225-0948 (Online) VolS, No.8, 2015

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Figure 2. Stages of System Dynamics Modeling

3. Modeling md Simulation

ｷｷｷＮｩｩｾＮｯｲｧ＠

The first stage in conslrUCtiog an system dynamics model is to define the system boundary (Wu et al. 2011). lo preliminary model, the system model of sustainable South Tangcraog City development will be bounded as single city, therefore impact from other areas were be described in very little portion. The objective of the model was prediction sustainability of the city, therefore model will simulate three aspect of sustainability, i.e.: Gross Domestic Regional Product (GDRB) as representation of economic aspect, unemployment (social aspect) and environmental index which aggregate index of waste, garbage, grcccn open space and traffic jump potential (environmental aspect). Scopes of model dcvclopmcnl

can

be summari7.Cd in the Table I.

Table l. of model for sustainable new ci dcvclo mcnt

Sub model Sector

Regional ccooomic

Social

Environmental

GDRB per capita Investment Economic growth

The income of local or PAD ICOR

Bud ct allocation City population Population growth

Labor

Solid waste (garbage) Waste

Water availability Flood (runoff) Green Infrastructure and Settlement

Trans on T ·on

By inferred from last studies which conducted some researchers, we designed preliminary model in five sub systems. These sub system were (1) Population and Labor, (2) Regional Economic, (3) Environmental quality, and (4) Infrastructure and Transportation. These sub systems were iruerrelated among them in establishment the system of South Tangcrang City. Causal Loop of system of Sustainable South Tangcrang Development was show in Figure 3.

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Journal of Environment and Eanb Science ISSN 2224-3216 (Paper) ISSN 2225-0948 (Online) Vol.5,No.8,2015

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Figure 3. Causal Loop of Sustainable City System

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Qualitative model of system should be converted into quantitative model for supporting simuation of sustainability. In system dynamics method, quantitative model called stock-flow diagram. Stock-flow diagram consist of state variables (stock). flow function (flow), auxiliary variables (convcrtor), and streamline (connector), with decision-making feedback loops. Stock-flow diagram

was

show

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(sec

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Figure 4. Stock-Flow Diagram of Sustainable South Tangerang City

By employingstock flow diagram which have been developing, we simulated some sustainability aspect of South Tangerang City development from 2010 - 2030. Four variables were simulated in representing of sustainable aspect. The four variables were

GDRB

per capita, economic growth rate, degree of saturation (road), and garbage and treatment capacity. Four variables, i.e .: rate of invcstmcnt,lncremcntal Capital Output Ratio (ICOR}, fund for environment management were selected in determining some scenarios for simulation purpose.

This study used two scenarios, ie.:

• Business as usual (BAU) scenario:Bascline scenario that examines the consequences of continuing current trends in population, economy, technology and human behaviour.

• Policy intervention (Pl) scenario: this study uses five indicators arc simulated, ie. ICOR 2,0; investment rate 0,06;vertical vertikal rate: 0,6; additional rate of road capacity O, l : green

open

space rate 0 .3; and

budget for the environmental sector: 0,3

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Joumal ol Environment and Eanb Science ISSN 2224-3216 (Paper) ISSN 222S-0948 (Online) Vol.5. No.8, 2015

Simulation results were show in Figure

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-Figure 5. Simulation Result of Sustainable South Tangcraog City Development Simulation result show as follow :

I) Simulation under BAU scenario show development of South Tangerang toward into not-sustainable level of development. Simulation of GDRP per capita lean to decline, because of growth of population is not supported by economic growth significantly. F.cooomic growth move slowly, and also investment grow

under their expectation, because ICOR was not change which show there was no improvement in regional efieccocy (recent ICOR of Sout Tangerang is 2.48).

Also. transportation sector performance wasquite low, indicated by increasing of saturation level of road. Increasing of the one indicate road trasnportation service lowly. 1bc situation was caused by un-balaocing between trip generation and increasing of road capacity.

Production of waste both industry and domestic waste, pollute potentially to lhc city, because of un-balancing between waste production and increasing of waste management facilities. Lack of waste management facilities cause increasing volume of of un -transported waste, therefore incrcsaing of unplanned garbage dumps.

2) Simulation under policy intervention scenario, predict better economic development, which is indicated increasing of economic growth significantly. In end of simulation years (2030), economic growth is predicted by 9 % per year, also GDRB per capita simulated tend to increase fastly.

Some development indicators arc predicted to improving significantly. lo, ttanSponatioo sector, decreasing of road saturation level was predicted, which indicate improvement in road transportation service. The

improvement would support to economic and other activities.

Waste management was predicted better, due to increasing budget allocation for the management. Improvement in some indicators suach as waste management, reducing traffic jumps, and increasing of open space availability would create level of confonable of the city.

Based the simulation, scenario of policy intervension was appropriate scenario should be implemented in ensuring sustainable new town development. By implementation the scenario, development of South Tangcrang wa.<; expected to be sustain in term increasing income both regional and people income and increasing community pcrticipation in maintaining of sustainable environment of their city.

S. Conclusion

The sustainable development system approach consider the balance among the goal of economic improvement, the social-cultural stability of the local people, and everlasting environment. This is reflected with the model had prepared . 1bc system dynamics model of Sustainable South Tangerang City development consists of sub models: population and labor, regional economic, environmental condition, and infrasttucrure and transpon.ation performance .

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)

Journal of Environment and Eanb Science ISSN 2224-3216 (Paper) 5SN 2225-0048 (Online) Vol.5. No.8. 2015

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Simulation by employed two scenarios, i.e.: BAU and Policy Intervention scenarios, were predicted deference result significantly. BAU scenario prediction produced worse conditions than policy intervention scenario

in

term people income, road transportation service, waste management and comfortable level of the city.

It was recommended to develop more accurate model which consider some aspects such as criminality level, human quality, and land

use

change.

References

BPS. (2013), "Kota Tangerang Selatan dalatn Angka 2012", BPS Kota Tangerang Selatan, Indonesia. Bruntland, G. (1987), "Our Common Future". Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Coyle, G. (1998). "The Practise Of System Dynamics: Milestones, Lessons and Ideas From 30 Years Experience", System Dynamics Review 14, 343- 366.

Dou, X., Li, S., & Wang, J. (2013), "Ecological Strategy of City Sustainable Development", APCBEE Procedia

5,429-434.

Guan.

D.,

Gao,

W., Su, W., Li, H., & Hobo, K. (2011), "Modeling and Dynamics Assessment of Urban Economy-Resource-Environment System wilh a Coupled System Dynamics - Geographic Information System Model", Ecological Indicators 11,1333-1344.

Hasibuan, S.H., Soemardia, P.T., Koestoerb, R .. & Moersidik, S. (2013), "The Role of Transit Oriented Development in Constructing Urban Environment Sustainability, The Case of Jabodcrabek, Indonesia". Procedia Environmental Sciences 20, 622 - 631.

Ho, F.Y., & Wang, H.L. (2008), "Applying Fuzzy Delphi Method to Select the Variables of a Sustainable Urban System Dynamics Model. A System Dynamics Approach", Conference Proceedings, The 2008 International Conference of the Sysrem Dynamics Society, Athens, Greece.

Lei, X., Zhang, J., & Li, J. (2012), "A Sysrem Dynamics Model for Urban Low-Carbon Transport and Simulation in the City of Shanghai, Oaina", Advance.f in Information Sciences and Service Science.f(AISS) 4(1), 239-246.

Seymoar, K.N., Mullard, Z., & Winstanley, M. (2009), "City-to-City Learning". Sustainable Cities. Canada. Soyler, H., Cukaci, Y., Aksu, I., & Omc, N., Z. (2008). "Socio-F.conomic Development Projection Of Malatya

Supported by EU Regional Development Progranune: A System Dynamics Approach". Conference Proceedings, The 2008 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Athens, Greece. United Nations. (2009), "World Population Prospects 1be 2008 Revision: Executive Summary". United Nations

Publication.

Wu, Y., Zhang, X. & Shen, L. (2011), "The Impact of Urbanization Policy on Land Use Change: A Scenario Analysis", Cities 28, 147-159.

Yigitcanlar, T., Dur, F., & Dii.daroglu, D. (2014), "Towards Prosperous Sustainable Cities: A Multiscalar Urban Su.c;tainability Assessment Approach". Habitat lntemarional xxx. l-11.

Xu, Z. (2011), "Application of System Dynamics Model and GIS in Sustainability Assessment Of Urban Residential Development". Proceeding.t of the 29th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Washington DC (USA).

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511/2015 Vol 5. No 8 (2015)

Women Farm.:rs' Char1ct,;r1s.bcs and Pgrc;ot1gn tgwards ､ｩｭｾｴ｣＠ Chang<: ond Yartob!Jity '"

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Ro'-rt EtJm Ekpenyong

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511/2015, Model Des1"1ing

rot

Sustainable New City Developmert: A Case Study for Scdll T angerang City, Indonesia

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Model

ｄ･ｳｩ｛ｾｩｮｧ＠

for Sustainable New City Development: A Case Study for South

T angerang

City,

Indonesia

Herl ApriyanlO, Eriyatno ., £man Rustladl, IklMNaruddln HattHrdy

Abstract

Development ol new city is expected to solve such problem5 as population pressure reduction in large cities, regional economic development, etc., but the reality does net correspond to the objectives. The development d a new city hais brought convenience to

the people's production and kfe. Ha-ver, at the same time, with the increasing d urban t.ctor intensity, the problems such as the

traffic, security, infrastructure, and environment end alhers ere growing. A case sludy d the research - s conducted in the South T•nger•ng c;ty, S.nten Province, lndonai•. The development d this city h•d ｾ＠ foeu5ed on economic

•-d,

ether a-cts such es environmental (especialy on environmental carrying capacity) and sociel aspect sholAd be paid sufficient attention. Therefore, in city development control should be implemented in ensuring sustaiNlble cities development. Assessment on sustaiNlble cities development is systematicaly, because city growth is affected by behaivior ol elements such as economic, ecology and social elements which constructed a city. The aim ol research • s to design a model designing for ｾＱｮ｡｢ｬ･＠ development ol South Tangerang Qty. System dynamics approach MS employed to develop the model. The model contain ol some sub model, i.e. : Pop<Ation and Labor, Regional Economic, Environmental Condition, and lnfrastrudure and Transportation sub model. Some scenano -re determined and simulated to predict economic, social and environmental impact. Recommended policies to achieve its

sustainability i.e. increasing investment, green open space, vertical setllement, road capacity, •nd budget tor the environmental sector.

Kcywerlllat Sustainable New City Development, System Dynamics, South Tangening City, scenario

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C The International Institute for Science, Technology and Education (llSTE)

Academic Paper Acceptance Letter

Dear Heri Apriyanto, Eriyatno, Ernan Rustiadi, lkhwanuddin Mawardy,

It's my pleasure to infonn you that, after the peer review, your paper,

Model Designing for Sustainable New City Development: A Case Study for South Tangerang

City,

lndonesla

has been ACCEPTED with Journal of Environment and Earth Science, ISSN (Paper)2224-3216 ISSN (Online)2225-0948.

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April 14, 2015

Editor-in-Chief

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