Dampak guncangan faktor eksternal dan kebijakan domestik terhadap perekonomian Indonesia: analisis kointegrasi antar pasar kawasan internasional

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3 semperkuat jaringan d.0 k d e p h n piliban ptw mawrut

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s s T 5 Q Indonesian Ecanomy: A &integration Analysis of Regional-International Msrlrets

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7~ g 3 Q (U& Supervisory of KUNTJORO as Cbaimun, a d BONAR MSINAGA,

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SUNSUN SAEFULHAMM,

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3 n g 4 s Tbis resesuch abjectives to ana1yz: (1) -1 of the hdomsim ecanamy

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3 8 ~ its regionaI-irrtematioml ~ ~ markets, (2) imp& of exclump and interest rates

P 2 : s g ks on the Indmxsian ecoaomy, (3) 1i-e of the Iadoaesian agminddd

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~ Q C*lies, trade and tariff, domestic commption expsion and deregulation of stocks

me on t I-ian agnindustrial eumomy, and (5) thc acceleration of h h e s i a

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Q Q , P *my policiss, capccidly ~cceIna(ion of foreign hv&ment rad trade policies

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sxport, imhmid j m h t i v i t y a d access&ility of h r s to the international market. gg!L

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h smearch uses time min econometric appnech with the oointeption rncthod of

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sectoremrr d o nm&l (VECM) refemkg to the prwdure of Engl-ger

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1987) and l h b (1995) with the m&l of structural rnattix e o n of Pesaran and

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The -is showed that foreign invatment, non-fuel eqmrt, domestic

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2. *ables to the J n W m economy will have significant lh@s with tbt dynamics Q 1. 3

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m i c s of the linkages for each cointepticm system is swqtiile to the shoclzs

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-of the em- and tbe irderest rates. The decision to c bpsutnlers (regions) and

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Q Z E the Monty of coopxat~on can tx

used

as effective key policy instruments in driving a

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.rr h r competitive ecanomic growth a c c e l d o n in this uncertain htermtional economic 3 J condition. The long term of the Indonesian agmimhWriaI ecanamy will be

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influenced by foreign investment, agr01ihstrh1 export,

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The m h findings m e n d same i m p o m policies implications: (1)

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2. Otrengthemng internatid economic network witb selected partners

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!! *orities, (2) improving international mmpetitiveness while mflsidcring domestic 9 _{economic growth and w l h , and (3) designing h k m a i ~}

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'd ecorKmnic policies to

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e m o t e eficiency _{=em on Agriculture} ud _(AoA) agmirdustrid _{of WTO.} prdudvity a d adjustments to the A v

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C Markets, Extemal Factors, Domestic Policies, and -integration

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