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Analisis Pertumbuhan Ekonomi dan Indeks Pembangunan Manusia (IPM) Provinsi-Provinsi di Indonesia (Metode Kointegrasi)

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LAMPIRAN 1

Produk Domestik Regional Bruto Atas Dasar Harga Konstan 2000 Menurut Provinsi, 2004-2011 (Milyar Rupiah)

Provinsi 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011*)

1 Aceh 40 374 36 288 36 854 35 983 34 098 32 219 33 103 34 789 2 Sumatera Utara 83 329 87 898 93 347 99 792 106 172 111 559 118 719 126 588 3 Sumatera Barat 27 578 29 159 30 950 32 913 35 177 36 683 38 862 41 292 4 Riau 75 217 79 288 83 371 86 213 91 085 93 786 97 736 102 666 5 Jambi 11 954 12 620 13 364 14 275 15 298 16 275 17 472 18 964

6 Sumatera

Selatan 47 344 49 634 52 215 55 262 58 065 60 453 63 859 68 008 7 Bengkulu 5 896 6 239 6 611 7 037 7 442 7 860 8 340 8 878 8 Lampung 28 262 29 397 30 861 32 695 34 443 36 256 38 390 40 859

9 Kepulauan

Bangka Belitung 8 415 8 707 9 054 9 465 9 900 10 270 10 885 11 588 10 Kepulauan Riau 28 509 30 382 32 441 34 714 37 015 38 319 41 076 43 810

Sumatera 356 879 369 612 389 067 408 350 428 695 443 681 468 441 497 441

(2)

17 Bali 19 963 21 072 22 185 24 450 25 910 27 291 28 882 30 758

18 Kalimantan

Barat 22 483 23 538 24 768 26 020 27 439 28 757 30 329 32 138 19 Kalimantan

Tengah 13 253 14 035 14 854 15 755 16 726 17 658 18 806 20 078 20 Kalimantan

Selatan 22 171 23 293 24 452 25 922 27 593 29 052 30 675 32 553 21 Kalimantan

Timur 91 050 93 938 96 613 98 386 103 207 105 565 110 953 115 476 22 Sulawesi Utara 12 150 12 745 13 473 14 344 15 902 17 150 18 377 19 735 23 Sulawesi Tengah 10 925 11 752 12 672 13 961 15 047 16 208 17 624 19 237 24 Sulawesi Selatan 34 345 36 422 38 868 41 332 44 550 47 326 51 200 55 099

25 Sulawesi

Tenggara 7 480 8 027 8 643 9 332 10 011 10 769 11 654 12 698 26 Gorontalo 1 892 2 028 2 176 2 339 2 521 2 711 2 917 3 141 27 Sulawesi Barat 2 922 3 121 3 321 3 568 3 999 4 239 4 744 5 233

28 Nusa Tenggara

Barat 14 928 15 184 15 604 16 369 16 832 18 874 20 073 19 440 29 Nusa Tenggara

Timur 9 537 9 867 10 369 10 902 11 430 11 921 12 547 13 253 30 Maluku 3 102 3 259 3 440 3 633 3 787 3 993 4 251 4 509 31 Maluku Utara 2 128 2 237 2 359 2 501 2 651 2 812 3 036 3 230 32 Papua Barat 4 969 5 307 5 549 5 934 6 400 7 287 9 361 11 896 33 Papua 16 283 22 209 18 402 19 200 18 932 23 138 22 400 21 208

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LAMPIRAN 2

PDRB Per Kapita dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi 33 Provinsi Indonesia Atas Dasar Harga Konstan 2000 Tahun 2005-2008

No. Provinsi PDRB per Kapita (Ribu Rp) Pertumbuhan Ekonomi (%)

2005 2006 2007 2008 Rata-Rata 2005 2006 2007 2008

Rata-Rata

1. Aceh 8.886 8.873 8.519 7.938 8.554 -10,0 -0,1 -4,0 -6,8 -5,2

2. Sumatera Utara 7.078 7.393 7.775 8.141 7.597 3,0 4,5 5,2 4,7 4,3

3. Sumatera Barat 6.385 6.681 7.006 7.350 6.855 5,0 4,6 4,9 4,9 4,9

4. Riau 16.396 16.832 17.001 17.553 16.945 -1,5 2,7 1,0 3,2 1,4

5. JambI 4.762 4.956 5.206 5.486 5.102 4,6 4,1 5,0 5,4 4,8

(4)

7. Bengkulu 3.984 4.154 4.335 4.479 16.952 4,7 4,3 4,4 3,3 4,2

8. Lampung 4.148 4.293 4.485 4.656 4.395 3,7 3,5 4,5 3,8 3,9

9. Bangka Belitung 8.101 8.300 8.552 8.806 8.440 -1,4 2,5 3,0 3,0 1,8

10. Kepulauan Riau 23.756 24.304 24.922 25.478 24.615 -0,7 2,3 2,5 -2,2 -1,6

11. DKI Jakarta 33.205 34.837 36.733 38.654 35.857 4,3 4,9 5,4 5,2 5,0

12. Jawa Barat 6.204 6.480 6.799 7.091 6.643 4,1 4,4 4,9 4,3 4,5

13. Jawa Tengah 4.488 4.690 4.914 5.143 4.809 7,5 4,5 4,8 4,7 5,4

14. Yogyakarta 5.025 5.157 5.326 5.538 5.261 0,3 2,6 3,3 4,0 2,6

15. Jawa Timur 7.027 7.393 7.801 8.217 7.609 5,8 5,2 5,5 5,3 5,5

16. Banten 6.406 6.634 6.903 7.168 6.778 6,6 3,6 4,1 3,8 4,5

17. Bali 6.188 6.444 6.752 7.082 6.616 5,3 4,1 4,8 4,9 4,8

18. NTT 2.306 2.376 2.451 2.520 2.413 0,5 3,0 3,2 2,8 2,4

19. NTB 3.660 3.697 3.813 3.850 3.755 0,1 1,0 3,1 1,0 1,3

20. Kalimantan Barat 5.830 6.030 6.285 6.515 6.165 4,6 3,4 4,2 3,7 4,0

(5)

22. Kalimantan Selatan 7.066 7.307 7.632 7.990 7.499 2,8 3,4 4,4 4,7 3,8

23. Kalimantan Timur 32.537 32.689 32.334 33.337 32.974 -1,2 0,5 -1,1 3,1 0,3

24. Sulawesi Utara 5.945 6.222 6.559 6.988 6.428 5,6 4,7 5,4 6,5 5,6

25. Sulawesi Tengah 5.083 5.383 5.711 6.057 5.558 4,8 5,9 6,1 6,1 5,7

26. Sulawesi Selatan 4.863 5.118 5.368 5.708 5.264 4,8 5,2 4,9 6,3 5,3

27. Sulawesi Tenggara 4.126 4.347 4.594 4.824 4.473 6,1 5,4 5,7 5,0 5,5

28. Gorontalo 2.166 2.294 2.436 2.593 2.372 2,8 5,9 6,2 6,4 5,3

29. Sulawesi Barat 3.152 3.317 3.509 3.751 3.432 7,0 5,2 5,8 6,9 6,2

30. Maluku 2.577 2.680 2.791 2.867 2.729 3,3 4,0 4,1 2,7 3,5

31. Maluku Utara 2.447 2.540 2.649 2.762 2.599 0,4 3,8 4,3 4,3 3,2

32. Papua Barat 7.712 7.903 8.288 8.725 8.157 -0,3 2,5 4,9 5,3 3,1

(6)

LAMPIRAN 3

(7)

LAMPIRAN 4

Uji Akar Unit Variabel Pertumbuhan Ekonomi

Null Hypothesis: Unit root (individual unit root process)

Series: PDRB_ACEH, PDRB_BALI, PDRB_BANGKA,PDRB_BANTEN, PDRB_BENGKULU, PDRB_DKIJAKARTA,PDRB_GORONTALO, PDRB_JABAR, PDRB_JAMBI, PDRB_JATENG, PDRB_JATIM,

PDRB_KALBAR, PDRB_KALSEL, PDRB_KALTENG, PDRB_KALTIM, PDRB_KEPRIAU, PDRB_LAMPUNG, PDRB_MALUKU,

PDRB_MALUKUUTARA, PDRB_NTB, PDRB_NTT, PDRB_PAPUA, PDRB_PAPUABARAT, PDRB_RIAU, PDRB_SULBAR,

PDRB_SULSEL, PDRB_SULTENG, PDRB_SULTENGGARA, PDRB_SULUT, PDRB_SUMBAR, PDRB_SUMSEL, PDRB_SUMUT, PDRB_YOGYAKARTA

Date: 02/14/14 Time: 17:38

Sample: 2004 2011

Exogenous variables: Individual effects

Automatic selection of maximum lags

Automatic lag length selection based on AIC: 0

Total (balanced) observations: 100

Cross-sections included: 20 (13 dropped)

Method

Statistic

Prob.**

ADF - Fisher Chi-square

78.9778

0.0002

ADF - Choi Z-stat

-4.45139

0.0000

** Probabilities for Fisher tests are computed using an asymptotic Chi -square distribution. All other tests assume asymptotic normality.

Intermediate ADF test results D(UNTITLED,2)

Series Prob. Lag Max Lag Obs

D(PDRB_ACEH,

2) 0.0787 0 0 5

D(PDRB_BALI,2

) 0.1209 0 0 5

D(PDRB_BANG

KA,2) 0.2048 0 0 5

D(PDRB_BANT

EN,2) 0.1105 0 0 5

D(PDRB_BENG

KULU,2) 0.4166 0 0 5

D(PDRB_DKIJA

KARTA,2) 0.1769 0 0 5

D(PDRB_GORO

NTALO,2) 0.1368 0 0 5

(8)

R,2) D(PDRB_JAMBI

,2) 0.5404 0 0 5

D(PDRB_JATEN

G,2) 0.2039 0 0 5

D(PDRB_JATIM

,2) 0.3076 0 0 5

D(PDRB_KALB

AR,2) 0.1584 0 0 5

D(PDRB_KALS

EL,2) 0.2567 0 0 5

D(PDRB_KALT

ENG,2) 0.2108 0 0 5

D(PDRB_KALTI

M,2) Dropped from Test

D(PDRB_KEPRI

AU,2) Dropped from Test

D(PDRB_LAMP

UNG,2) 0.4151 0 0 5

D(PDRB_MALU

KU,2) 0.2646 0 0 5

D(PDRB_MALU

KUUTARA,2) Dropped from Test

D(PDRB_NTB,2) Dropped from Test

D(PDRB_NTT,2) 0.0734 0 0 5

D(PDRB_PAPU

A,2) 0.0110 0 0 5

D(PDRB_PAPUA

BARAT,2) Dropped from Test

D(PDRB_RIAU,2) Dropped from Test

D(PDRB_SULB

AR,2) 0.0156 0 0 5

D(PDRB_SULSE

L,2) Dropped from Test

D(PDRB_SULT

ENG,2) Dropped from Test

D(PDRB_SULT

ENGGARA,2) Dropped from Test

D(PDRB_SULU

T,2) 0.1750 0 0 5

D(PDRB_SUMB

AR,2) Dropped from Test

D(PDRB_SUMS

EL,2) Dropped from Test

D(PDRB_SUMU

T,2) Dropped from Test

D(PDRB_YOGY

(9)

LAMPIRAN 5

Uji Akar Unit Variabel Indeks Pembangunan Manusia

Null Hypothesis: Unit root (individual unit root process)

Series: IPM_ACEH, IPM_BALI, IPM_BANGKA, IPM_BANTEN,

IPM_BENGKULU, IPM_DKIJAKARTA, IPM_GORONTALO, IPM_JABAR,

IPM_JAMBI, IPM_JATENG, IPM_JATIM, IPM_KALBAR, IPM_KALSEL,

IPM_KALTENG, IPM_KALTIM, IPM_KEPRIAU, IPM_LAMPUNG,

IPM_MALUKU, IPM_MALUKUUTARA, IPM_NTB, IPM_NTT,

IPM_PAPUA, IPM_PAPUABARAT, IPM_RIAU, IPM_SULBAR,

IPM_SULSEL, IPM_SULTENG, IPM_SULTENGGARA, IPM_SULUT,

IPM_SUMBAR, IPM_SUMSEL, IPM_SUMUT, IPM_YOGYAKARTA

Date: 02/14/14 Time: 17:32

Sample: 2004 2011

Exogenous variables: Individual effects

Automatic selection of maximum lags

Automatic lag length selection based on AIC: 0

Total (balanced) observations: 120

Cross-sections included: 20 (13 dropped)

Method Statistic Prob.**

ADF - Fisher Chi-square 147.209 0.0000

ADF - Choi Z-stat -7.72557 0.0000

** Probabilities for Fisher tests are computed using an asymptotic Chi -square distribution. All other tests assume asymptotic normality.

Intermediate ADF test results D(UNTITLED)

Series Prob. Lag Max Lag Obs

D(IPM_ACEH) 0.0913 0 0 6

D(IPM_BALI) 0.2043 0 0 6

D(IPM_BANGK

A) 0.0077 0 0 6

D(IPM_BANTE

N) 0.0097 0 0 6

D(IPM_BENGK

ULU) 0.0007 0 0 6

D(IPM_DKIJAK

ARTA) 0.2060 0 0 6

D(IPM_GORON

TALO) 0.0003 0 0 6

D(IPM_JABAR) Dropped from Test

D(IPM_JAMBI) 0.0304 0 0 6

D(IPM_JATENG

) 0.0990 0 0 6

(10)

D(IPM_KALBA

R) 0.3169 0 0 6

D(IPM_KALSEL

) 0.1498 0 0 6

D(IPM_KALTE

NG) 0.0009 0 0 6

D(IPM_KALTIM

) Dropped from Test

D(IPM_KEPRIA

U) Dropped from Test

D(IPM_LAMPU

NG) 0.1465 0 0 6

D(IPM_MALUK

U) 0.1439 0 0 6

D(IPM_MALUK

UUTARA) Dropped from Test

D(IPM_NTB) Dropped from Test

D(IPM_NTT) 0.2912 0 0 6

D(IPM_PAPUA) 0.0127 0 0 6

D(IPM_PAPUA

BARAT) Dropped from Test

D(IPM_RIAU) Dropped from Test

D(IPM_SULBA

R) 0.5605 0 0 6

D(IPM_SULSEL

) Dropped from Test

D(IPM_SULTEN

G) Dropped from Test

D(IPM_SULTEN

GGARA) Dropped from Test

D(IPM_SULUT) 0.0131 0 0 6

D(IPM_SUMBA

R) Dropped from Test

D(IPM_SUMSE

L) Dropped from Test

D(IPM_SUMUT) Dropped from Test

D(IPM_YOGYA

(11)

LAMPIRAN 6

Uji Kointegrasi antara Pertumbuhan Ekonomi dan

`Indeks Pembangunan Manusia

Pedroni Residual Cointegration Test

Series: PDRB? IPM?

Date: 02/14/14 Time: 20:42

Sample: 2004 2011

Included observations: 8

Cross-sections included: 2 (31 dropped)

Null Hypothesis: No cointegration

Trend assumption: No deterministic trend

Automatic lag length selection based on AIC with a max lag of 0

Newey-West automatic bandwidth selection and Bartlett kernel

Alternative hypothesis: common AR coefs. (within-dimension)

Weighted

Statistic

Prob.

Statistic

Panel v-Statistic

Prob.

-0.360784 0.6409 -0.530313

0.7021

Panel rho-Statistic

-0.555359 0.2893 -0.183390

0.4272

Panel PP-Statistic

-5.545982 0.0000 -3.932610

0.0000

Panel ADF-Statistic

-3.270017 0.0005 -2.403795

0.0081

Alternative hypothesis: individual AR coefs. (between-dimension)

Statistic

Prob.

Group rho-Statistic

0.500540 0.6917

Group PP-Statistic

-4.415141 0.0000

Group ADF-Statistic -2.503192 0.0062

Cross section specific results

Phillips-Peron results (non-parametric)

Cross ID

AR(1) Variance

HAC Bandwidth

Obs

_ACEH

Dropped from Test

_SUMUT

Dropped from Test

_SUMBAR

Dropped from Test

_RIAU

Dropped from Test

_JAMBI

Dropped from Test

_SUMSEL

Dropped from Test

_BENGKUL

U

Dropped from Test

_LAMPUNG

Dropped from Test

(12)

_KEPRIAU

Dropped from Test

_DKIJAKAR

TA

Dropped from Test

_JABAR

Dropped from Test

_JATENG

Dropped from Test

_YOGYAKA

RTA

Dropped from Test

_JATIM

Dropped from Test

_BANTEN

Dropped from Test

_BALI

Dropped from Test

_NTB

Dropped from Test

_NTT

Dropped from Test

_KALBAR

Dropped from Test

_KALTENG

Dropped from Test

_KALSEL

Dropped from Test

_KALTIM

Dropped from Test

_SULUT

Dropped from Test

_SULTENG

Dropped from Test

_SULSEL

Dropped from Test

_SULTENGG

ARA

Dropped from Test

_GORONTA

LO

Dropped from Test

_SULBAR

Dropped from Test

_MALUKU -0.134 1102.664 287.5109

6.00

7

_MALUKUU

TARA

Dropped from Test

_PAPUABA

RAT

Dropped from Test

_PAPUA

-0.360 2678050. 788432.8

6.00

7

Augmented Dickey-Fuller results (parametric)

Cross ID

AR(1) Variance

Lag

Max lag

Obs

_ACEH

Dropped from Test

_SUMUT

Dropped from Test

_SUMBAR

Dropped from Test

_RIAU

Dropped from Test

_JAMBI

Dropped from Test

_SUMSEL

Dropped from Test

_BENGKUL

U

Dropped from Test

_LAMPUNG

Dropped from Test

_BANGKA

Dropped from Test

_KEPRIAU

Dropped from Test

(13)

TA

_JABAR

Dropped from Test

_JATENG

Dropped from Test

_YOGYAKA

RTA

Dropped from Test

_JATIM

Dropped from Test

_BANTEN

Dropped from Test

_BALI

Dropped from Test

_NTB

Dropped from Test

_NTT

Dropped from Test

_KALBAR

Dropped from Test

_KALTENG

Dropped from Test

_KALSEL

Dropped from Test

_KALTIM

Dropped from Test

_SULUT

Dropped from Test

_SULTENG

Dropped from Test

_SULSEL

Dropped from Test

_SULTENGG

ARA

Dropped from Test

_GORONTA

LO

Dropped from Test

_SULBAR

Dropped from Test

_MALUKU -0.134 1102.664

0

0

7

_MALUKUU

TARA

Dropped from Test

_PAPUABA

RAT

Dropped from Test

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