Climate Change Vulnerability in Jakarta

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Climate Change

Vulnerability in Jakarta

Dr. Armi Susandi, MT.

Bandung Institute of

Technology

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OUTLINE



Background



Objective



Basic Concept



Data and Methodology



Result



Analysis

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Background



Global climate change causes many areas in

Indonesia to be vulnerable on its impacts.



Jakarta is projected to be a vulnerable

region with high magnitude as compared

with the other Indonesia regions.



Up to recent, disaster frequently occurred in

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Objective



Building model to make map of vulnerable

index to climate change impacts in Jakarta.



Performing analysis regarding to Jakarta

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Basic Concept

CLIMATE CHANGE

Including Variability

Human Interference

MITIGATION

Of Climate Change via GHG Sources and Sinks

Exposure Initial Impacts Of Effects Autonomous Adaptations Residual or Net Impacts Planned ADAPTATION

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Vulnerability

‘The degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effect of climate change, including climate

variability and extremes’

Adaptive Capacity AC

‘The ability of a system to adjust to climate change to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope

with consequences’ Potential Impacts PI

‘All impacts that may occur given a projected change in climate, without

considering adaptation’

Exposure E

‘The nature and degree to which a system is exposed to significant climatic

variations’

Sensitivity S

‘The degree to which a system is affected, either adversely or beneficially, by

climate-related stimuli.

+

-+

+

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Data and Methodology



Data required:

1. Projection of rainfall, land use change, sea level

rise, subsidence, and distribution of

population.

2. Map of rivers, prosperity



Methodology:

1. Projection using Fast Fourier Transform and

Least Square Non-Linear on variable parameters.

2. Overlay and analysis using GIS software

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Flow of the Work

Variable Parameters -1 Prediction Model

Model Output

Building Spatial Map

Overlay Variable Parameters -2

Variable Parameters -3

Vulnerability Index

Building map of climate change vulnerability Constant Parameters

-1

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Rainfall Variable

Subsidence Variable

Land-use

Change Variable

Rivers Constant

Population

Distribution Variable Sea Level

Rise

Variable

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Projection of

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Projection of

Rainfall in

Jakarta

(Wet Months

2010

)

1 0 0 1 3 6 1 7 2 2 0 8 2 4 4 2 8 0 3 1 6 3 5 2 3 8 8 4 2 4 4 6 0 4 9 6 5 3 2 5 6 8 600 mm 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

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Projection of

Rainfall in

Jakarta

(Wet Months

2015

)

1 0 0 1 3 6 1 7 2 2 0 8 2 4 4 2 8 0 3 1 6 3 5 2 3 8 8 4 2 4 4 6 0 4 9 6 5 3 2 5 6 8 600 mm 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035

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Projection of

Rainfall in

Jakarta

(Wet Months

2020

)

1 0 0 1 3 6 1 7 2 2 0 8 2 4 4 2 8 0 3 1 6 3 5 2 3 8 8 4 2 4 4 6 0 4 9 6 5 3 2 5 6 8 600 mm 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

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Projection of

Rainfall in

Jakarta

(Wet Months

2025

)

1 0 0 1 3 6 1 7 2 2 0 8 2 4 4 2 8 0 3 1 6 3 5 2 3 8 8 4 2 4 4 6 0 4 9 6 5 3 2 5 6 8 600 mm 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035

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Projection of

Rainfall in

Jakarta

(Wet Months

2030

)

1 0 0 1 3 6 1 7 2 2 0 8 2 4 4 2 8 0 3 1 6 3 5 2 3 8 8 4 2 4 4 6 0 4 9 6 5 3 2 5 6 8 600 mm 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

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Projection of

Rainfall in

Jakarta

(Wet Months

2035

)

1 0 0 1 3 6 1 7 2 2 0 8 2 4 4 2 8 0 3 1 6 3 5 2 3 8 8 4 2 4 4 6 0 4 9 6 5 3 2 5 6 8 600 mm 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035

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201

0 Tanjung Priok Cilincing

North

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201

5

Pademangan Tanjung

Priok Koja

Cilincing

Subsidence in 1991 - 1997

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Population in Jakarta (1972)

AIR/SUNGAI FASILITAS UMUM LAHAN TERBUKA PEMUKIMAN RAWA, TAMBAK, LAUT SAWAH

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Population in Jakarta (1983)

AIR/SUNGAI FASILITAS UMUM LAHAN TERBUKA PEMUKIMAN RAWA, TAMBAK, LAUT SAWAH

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Population in Jakarta (1993)

AIR/SUNGAI FASILITAS UMUM LAHAN TERBUKA PEMUKIMAN RAWA, TAMBAK, LAUT SAWAH

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Population in Jakarta (1998)

AIR/SUNGAI FASILITAS UMUM LAHAN TERBUKA PEMUKIMAN RAWA, TAMBAK, LAUT SAWAH

(30)

Population in Jakarta (2002)

AIR/SUNGAI FASILITAS UMUM LAHAN TERBUKA PEMUKIMAN RAWA, TAMBAK, LAUT SAWAH

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Projection of Population in Jakarta

(

2010

)

Sum up of population: 8,981,200 people

Source: Bappenas, BPS,

AIR/SUNGAI FASILITAS UMUM LAHAN TERBUKA PEMUKIMAN RAWA, TAMBAK, LAUT SAWAH

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Projection of Population in Jakarta

(

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Map of Prosperity in Jakarta

0 0 . 1 0 . 2 0 . 3 0 . 4 0 . 5 0 . 6 0 . 7 0 . 8 0 . 9

100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

Index of Prosperity

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Result:

“Map of Climate Change

Vulnerability in Jakarta”

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Climate Change Vulnerability in Southeast Asia

Flood

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Map of Climate Change

Index of Climate Change Vulnerability

0 . 1 0 . 2 0 . 3 0 . 4 0 . 5 0 . 6 0 . 7 0 . 8 0 . 9

1

Percentage of

Index Range:

0.0 – 0.2 = 50 %

0.2 – 0.4 = 20 %

0.4 – 0.6 = 30 %

0.6 – 0.8 = 0 %

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Map of Climate Change

2015

(Susandi et. al, 2009)

0 0 . 1 0 . 2 0 . 3 0 . 4 0 . 5 0 . 6 0 . 7 0 . 8 0 . 9

1

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0 . 1 0 . 2 0 . 3 0 . 4 0 . 5 0 . 6 0 . 7 0 . 8 0 . 9

1

Percentage of

Index Range:

0.0 – 0.2 = 0 %

0.2 – 0.4 = 20 %

0.4 – 0.6 = 40 %

0.6 – 0.8 = 40 %

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Map of Climate Change

0 0 . 1 0 . 2 0 . 3 0 . 4 0 . 5 0 . 6 0 . 7 0 . 8 0 . 9

1

Percentage of

Index Range:

0.0 – 0.2 = 0 %

0.2 – 0.4 = 5 %

0.4 – 0.6 = 30 %

0.6 – 0.8 = 65 %

0.8 – 1.0 = 0 %

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0 . 1 0 . 2 0 . 3 0 . 4 0 . 5 0 . 6 0 . 7 0 . 8 0 . 9

1

Percentage of

Index Range:

0.0 – 0.2 = 0 %

0.2 – 0.4 = 0 %

0.4 – 0.6 = 10 %

0.6 – 0.8 = 70 %

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0 0 . 1 0 . 2 0 . 3 0 . 4 0 . 5 0 . 6 0 . 7 0 . 8 0 . 9

1

Percentage of

Index Range:

0.0 – 0.2 = 0 %

0.2 – 0.4 = 0 %

0.4 – 0.6 = 5 %

0.6 – 0.8 = 20 %

0.8 – 1.0 = 75 %

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From North Area

0 0 . 1 0 . 2 0 . 3 0 . 4 0 . 5 0 . 6 0 . 7 0 . 8 0 . 9

1

(49)

2015

0 . 1 0 . 2 0 . 3 0 . 4 0 . 5 0 . 6 0 . 7 0 . 8 0 . 9

1

From North Area

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0 0 . 1 0 . 2 0 . 3 0 . 4 0 . 5 0 . 6 0 . 7 0 . 8 0 . 9

1

2020

From North Area

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0 . 1 0 . 2 0 . 3 0 . 4 0 . 5 0 . 6 0 . 7 0 . 8 0 . 9

1

2025

From North Area

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0 0 . 1 0 . 2 0 . 3 0 . 4 0 . 5 0 . 6 0 . 7 0 . 8 0 . 9

1

2030

From North Area

(53)

0 . 1 0 . 2 0 . 3 0 . 4 0 . 5 0 . 6 0 . 7 0 . 8 0 . 9

1

2035

From North Area

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From South Area

0 0 . 1 0 . 2 0 . 3 0 . 4 0 . 5 0 . 6 0 . 7 0 . 8 0 . 9

1

2010

Development:

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2015

0 . 1 0 . 2 0 . 3 0 . 4 0 . 5 0 . 6 0 . 7 0 . 8 0 . 9

1

From South Area

Development:

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0 0 . 1 0 . 2 0 . 3 0 . 4 0 . 5 0 . 6 0 . 7 0 . 8 0 . 9

1

2020

From South Area

Development:

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0 . 1 0 . 2 0 . 3 0 . 4 0 . 5 0 . 6 0 . 7 0 . 8 0 . 9

1

2025

From South Area

Development:

1. Water Resource

2. Water Collector

3. Polder

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0 0 . 1 0 . 2 0 . 3 0 . 4 0 . 5 0 . 6 0 . 7 0 . 8 0 . 9

1

2030

From South Area

Development:

1. Water Resource

2. Water Collector

3. Polder

4. Networking Pipes

5. More Pipes &

(59)

0 . 1 0 . 2 0 . 3 0 . 4 0 . 5 0 . 6 0 . 7 0 . 8 0 . 9

1

2035

From South Area

Development:

1. Water Resource

2. Water Collector

3. Polder

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Combination From North and South

Area

0 0 . 1 0 . 2 0 . 3 0 . 4 0 . 5 0 . 6 0 . 7 0 . 8 0 . 9

1

2010

Mangrove 30 % of the distance

Development:

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2015

0 . 1 0 . 2 0 . 3 0 . 4 0 . 5 0 . 6 0 . 7 0 . 8 0 . 9

1

Mangrove 60 % of the distance

Combination From North and South

Area

Development:

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0 0 . 1 0 . 2 0 . 3 0 . 4 0 . 5 0 . 6 0 . 7 0 . 8 0 . 9

1

2020

Mangrove 100 % of the distance

Area

Development:

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0 . 1 0 . 2 0 . 3 0 . 4 0 . 5 0 . 6 0 . 7 0 . 8 0 . 9

1

2025

Sea Wall 30 % of the distance

Area

Development:

1. Water Resource

2. Water Collector

3. Polder

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0 0 . 1 0 . 2 0 . 3 0 . 4 0 . 5 0 . 6 0 . 7 0 . 8 0 . 9

1

2030

Combination From North and South

Area

Development:

1. Water Resource

2. Water Collector

3. Polder

4. Networking Pipes

5. More Pipes &

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0 . 1 0 . 2 0 . 3 0 . 4 0 . 5 0 . 6 0 . 7 0 . 8 0 . 9

1

2035

Area

Development:

1. Water Resource

2. Water Collector

3. Polder

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THANK YOU!

armi@geoph.itb.ac.id

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