DAFTAR PUSTAKA
Ameriks, J.A. 2001. An Examination of Household Portfolio Decisions. Ph.D.
Dissertation. The Graduate School of Art and Sciences, Colombia
University, Colombia.
Anderson, J.R., J.L. Dillon and J.B. Hardaker. 1977. Agricultural Decision
Analysis. The Iowa State University Press, Ames, Iowa.
Antle, J.M. 1987. Econometric Estimation of Producers’ Risk Attitude. American
Journal of Agricultural Economics, 69 (3) : 509-522.
Asmarantaka, R.W. 2007. Analisis Perilaku Ekonomi Rumahtangga Petani di
Tiga Desa Pangan dan Perkebunan di Provinsi Lampung. Disertasi Doktor.
Sekolah Pascasarjana, Institut Pertanian Bogor, Bogor.
Badan Pusat Statistik. 2004. Sensus Pertanian Tahun 2003. Badan Pusat Statistik,
Jakarta.
_________________. 2006. Statistik Indonesia. Badan Pusat Statistik, Jakarta.
Bahar. 2007. Keberhasilan dan Kinerja Agribisnis Hortikultura Tahun 2006.
Direktorat Jenderal Hortikultura, Departemen Pertanian, Jakarta.
Bakir, L.H. 2007. Kinerja Perusahaan Inti Rakyat Kelapa Sawit di Sumatera
Selatan : Analisis Kemitraan dan Ekonomi Rumahtangga Petani. Disertasi
Doktor. Sekolah Pascasarjana, Institut Pertanian Bogor, Bogor.
Balai Pengkajian Teknologi Pertanian Jawa Barat. 2003. Sintesis Komoditas
Unggulan Propinsi Jawa Barat. Pusat Penelitian dan Pengembangan Sosial
Ekonomi Pertanian, Balitbang Pertanian, Departemen Pertanian, Bogor.
Basit, A. 1996. Analisis Ekonomi Penerapan Teknologi Usahatani Konservasi
pada Lahan Kering Berlereng di Wilayah Hulu Das Jratunseluna Jawa
Tengah. Disertasi Doktor. Program Pascasarjana, Institut Pertanian Bogor,
Bogor.
Beach, R.H., A.S. Jones and S.A. Johnsston. 2005. Tobacco Farmer Interest and
Success in Diversification. Paper. American Agricultural Economics
Association, Rhode Island.
Becker, G.S. 1976. The Economic Approach to Human Behavior.The University
of Chicago Press, Chicago.
Beattie, B.R. and C.R. Taylor. 1985. The Economics of Production. John Wiley
and Sons, New York.
Buccola, S.T. and B.A. McCarl. 1986. Small-Sample Evaluation of
Mean-Variance Production Function Estimators. American Journal of Agricultural
Economics, 68 (3) : 732-738.
Calkin, P.H. and D.D.DiPietre. 1983. Farm Business Management Successful
Decisions in a Changing Environment. Macmillan Publishing Company Inc,
New York.
Chambers, R.G. 1988. Applied Production Analysis. Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge.
Coelli, T., D.S P. Rao and G.E. Battese. 1998. An Introduction to Efficiency and
Productivity Analysis. Kluwer Academic Publishers, London.
Cox, D. and E. Jimenez. 1998. Risk Sharing and Private Transfers : What about
Urban Household ? Economic Development and Cultural Change, 46 (3) :
621 - 637.
Daryanto, A. 2006. Contract Farming : Linking Farmers to Markets. Business and
Entrepreneurial Review, 6 (1) : 27 – 30.
Debertin, D.L. 1986. Agricultural Production Economics. Macmillan Publishing
Company, New York.
De Wet, W.A. 2005. A Structural Garch Model : An Aplication to Portofolio
Risk Management. Ph.D. Dissertation. Faculty of Economic and
Management Sciences, University of Pretoria.
Dharmawan, A.H. 2002. The Farm Household Livelihood Strategies and Local
Structural Change in Rural Indonesia : Case Studies from West Java and
West Kalimantan. Mimbar Sosek, 15 (3) : 73-101.
Dinas Pasar Induk Kramat Jati. 2005. Perkembangan Harga Sayur Mayur dan
Buah-buahan. Dinas Pasar Induk Kramat Jati, Jakarta.
Dinas Pertanian Tanaman Pangan. 2002. Buku Informasi Sayuran. Dinas
Pertanian Tanaman Pangan Jawa Barat, Bandung.
Dinas Pertanian Tanaman Pangan Jawa Barat. 2004, 2005, 2006. Laporan
Tahunan. Dinas Pertanian Tanaman Pangan Jawa Barat, Bandung.
Dinas Pertanian Kabupaten Bandung. 2004, 2005, 2006. Laporan Tahunan. Dinas
Pertanian Kabupaten Bandung, Soreang.
Direktorat Jenderal Hortikultura. 2006. Evaluasi Kinerja Pembangunan Agribisnis
Hortikultura Tahun 2005. Direktorat Jenderal Hortikultura, Departemen
Pertanian, Jakarta.
Dirjen Bina Produksi Hortikultura. 2005. Benih Hortikultura dalam Perdagangan
Internasional. Dirjen Bina Produksi Hortikultura, Departemen Pertanian,
Jakarta.
Ellis, F. 1988. Peasant Economics : Farm Households and Agrarian Development.
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
Elton, E.J. and M.J. Gruber. 1995. Modern Portofolio Theory and Investment
Analysis. Fifth Edition. Johns Wiley and Sons Inc, New York.
Fabella, R.V. 1986. Block-Recursiveness of The Household Production Model
Under Risk. Journal of Philippine Development, 13 (23) : 178 – 189.
Fukui, S., S. Hartono dan N. Iwamoto. 2004. Risk and Rice Farming
Intensification in Rural Java. In: Hayashi,Y, S. Manuwoto dan S. Hartono
(Eds). Sustainable Agriculture in Rural Indonesia. Gadjah Mada University
Press, Yogyakarta.
Guiso, L., T. Jappelli and D. Terlizzese. 1996. Income Risk, Borrowing
Constraints and Portfolio Choice. The American Economic Review, 86 (1) :
158 - 172.
Gujarati, D. 1978. Basic Econometric. McGraw Hill Inc, New York.
Hardono, G.S. 2002. Dampak Perubahan Faktor – Faktor Ekonomi terhadap
Ketahanan Pangan Rumahtangga Pertanian. Tesis Magister Sains. Sekolah
Pascasarjana, Institut Pertanian Bogor, Bogor.
Hartoyo, S., K. Mizuno dan S.S. M. Mugniesyah. 2004. Comparative Analysis of
Farm Management and Risk : Case Study in Two Upland Villages, West
Java. In : Hayashi,Y, S.Manuwoto dan S. Hartono (Eds). Sustainable
Agriculture in Rural Indonesia. Gadjah Mada University Press, Yogyakarta.
Harwood, J., R. Heifner, K. Coble, J. Perry and A. Somwaru. 1999. Managing
Risk in Farming : Concepts, Research and Analysis. Agricultural Economic
Report No. 774. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington.
Hayashi, Y., S. Manuwoto dan S. Hartono (Eds). 2004. Sustainable Agriculture
in Rural Indonesia. Gadjah Mada University Press, Yogyakarta.
Henderson, J.M. and R.E. Quandt. 1980. Microeconomics Theory. A
Mathematical Approach. Third Edition. McGraw Hill International Book
Company, Tokyo.
Hendratno, S. 2006. Kompromi Kooperatif dan Alokasi Sumberdaya Intra
Rumahtangga Petani Karet di Sumatera Selatan. Disertasi Doktor. Sekolah
Pascasarjana, Institut Pertanian Bogor, Bogor.
Huang, S.Y., R.J. Sexton and T. Xia. 2004. Analysis of a Supply Control Program
Under Uncertainty and Imperfect Competition : Chinese Cabbage in Taiwan.
National Science Council, Taiwan.
Hutabarat, B. 1985. An Assessment of Farm Level Input Demands and
Production Under Risk on Rice Farms in The Cimanuk River Basin, Jawa
Barat, Indonesia. Ph.D. Dissertation. Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa.
Intriligator, M.D., R.G. Bodkin and C. Hsiao. 1996. Econometric Models,
Technique and Applications. Second Edition. Prentice-Hall International
Inc, New Jersey.
Iqbal, F. 1986. The Demand and Supply of Funds among Agricultural
Households in India. In : Singh, I, L. Squire and J. Strauss (Eds).
Agricultural Household Models : Extensions, Applications and Policy. The
Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore.
Just, R.E. 1974. An Investigation of the Importance of Risk in Farmer’s
Decisions. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 56 (1) : 14-25.
________. 1975. Risk Aversion under Profit Maximization. American Journal of
Agricultural Economics, 57 (2) : 347-352.
Just, R.E. and R.D. Pope. 1979. On the Relationship of Input Decisions and Risk.
In : Roumasset, J.A, J.M. Boussard and I. Singh (Eds). Risk, Uncertainty
and Agricultural Development. Agricultural Development Council, New
York.
Kingwell, R. 1994. Effects of Tactical Responses and Risk Aversion on Farm
Wheat Supply. Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, 62 (1) :
3- 24.
Kusnadi, N. 2005. Perilaku Ekonomi Rumahtangga Petani dalam Pasar
Persaingan Tidak Sempurna di Beberapa Provinsi di Indonesia. Disertasi
Doktor. Sekolah Pascasarjana, Institut Pertanian Bogor, Bogor.
Koutsoyiannis, A. 1977. Theory of Econometrics : An Introductory Exposition of
Econometric Methods. Second Edition. The Macmillan Press Ltd, London.
Koordinator Penyuluh Pertanian Kecamatan Pangalengan. 2006. Program
Penyuluhan Pertanian Kecamatan Pangalengan. Pemerintah Kabupaten
Bandung, Bandung.
Leones, J.P. and S. Feldman. 1998. Nonfarm Activity and Rural Household
Income : Evidence from Philippine Microdata. Economic Development and
Cultural Change, 46 (4) : 789 - 806.
Lofgren, H. and S.Robinson. 1999. To Trade or Not to Trade : Non Separable
Farm Household Models in Partial and General Equilibrium. Discussion
Paper No.37. Trade and Macroeconomics Division, International Food
Policy Research Institute, Washington.
Mazzocco, M. 2001. Essay on Household Intertemporal Behavior. Ph.D.
Dissertation. Department of Economics, The Faculty of The Division of The
Social Science, The University of Chichago, Chicago, Illinois.
Moller, N., Malchow and B.J. Thorsen. 2000. A Dynamic Agricultural Household
Model with Uncertain Income and Irreversible and Indivisible Investment
under Credit Constraints. Working Paper. Department of Economics,
University of AARHUS, Denmark.
Moschini, G. and D.A. Hennessy.1999. Uncertainty, Risk Aversion and Risk
Management for Agricultural Producers. Elsevier Science Publishers,
Amsterdam.
Nakajima, C. 1986. Subjective Equilibrium Theory of the Farm Household.
Elsevier Science Publishers, Amsterdam.
Novizan. 2002. Petunjuk Pemupukan yang Efektif. AgroMedia Pustaka, Jakarta.
Pannell, D.J. 1999. Responses to Risk in Weed Control Decisions Under Expected
Profit Maximisation. Journal of Agricultural Economics, 41: 391-403.
Patrick, G.R., P.H. Wilson, P.J. Barry, W.G. Bogges and D.L. Young. 1985. Risk
Perceptions and Management Response: Producer-Generated Hypotheses
for Risk Modelling. Southern Journal Agricultural Economics, 17 : 231-238.
Pemerintah Kabupaten Bandung. 2006. Data Monografi Kecamatan Pangalengan.
Pemerintah Kabupaten Bandung, Bandung.
Pindyck, R.S. and D.L. Rubinfeld. 1991. Econometric Model and Economic
Forecasts. Third Edition. McGraw-Hill Inc, New York.
Pradhan, J. and J.J. Quilkey. 1985. Some Policy Implicatios from Modelling
Household/Farm Firm Decisions for Rice Farmers in Orissa India. Paper.
Australian Agricultural Economics Society, Armidale N.S.W.
Purwoto, A. 1990. Efisiensi Usahatani Padi Tanpa dan dengan
Mempertimbangkan Risiko serta Pengaruh Faktor Sosial Ekonomi Terhadap
Sikap dalam Menghadapi Risiko. Tesis Magister Sains. Fakultas
Pascasarjana, Institut Pertanian Bogor, Bogor.
Robison, L. J. and P.J. Barry. 1987. The Competitive Firm’s Response to Risk.
Macmillan Publisher, London.
Roumasset, J.A., J.M. Boussard and I. Singh (Eds). 1979. Risk, Uncertainty and
Agricultural Development. Agricultural Development Council, New York.
Sadoulet, E. and A. de Janvry. 1995. Quantitative Development Policy Analysis.
The Johns Hopkins University Press, London.
Sadoulet, E., A. de Janvry and C. Benjamin. 1996. Household Behavior with
Imperfect Labor Market. California Agricultural Experiment Station,
Berkeley.
Saha, A. and J. Stroud. 1994. A Household Model of On-Farm Storage Under
Price Risk. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 76 (3) : 522-534.
Sawit, M.H. 1993. A Farm Household Model for Rural Households of West Java
Indonesia. Ph.D. Dissertation. Department of Economics, The University of
Wollongong, Wollongong.
Silberberg, E. 1990. The Struktur of Economic : A Mathematical Analysis.
Second Edition. McGraw-Hill Publishing Company, New York.
Singh, I., L. Squire and J. Strauss. 1986. The Basic Model : Theory, Empirical
Result and Policy Conclusions. In : Singh, I, L. Squire and J. Strauss (Eds).
Agricultural Household Models : Extensions, Applications and Policy. The
Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore.
___________________________ (Eds). 1986. Agricultural Household Models :
Extensions, Applications and Policy. The Johns Hopkins University Press,
Baltimore.
Singh, I. and J. Subramanian. 1986. Agricultural Household Modeling in a
Multicrop Environment : Case Studies in Korea and Nigeria. In : Singh, I, L.
Squire and J. Strauss (Eds). Agricultural Household Models : Extensions,
Applications and Policy. The Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore.
Sitepu, R.K. dan B.M. Sinaga. 2006. Aplikasi Model Ekonometrika : Estimasi,
Simulasi dan Peramalan Menggunakan Program SAS. Program Studi Ilmu
Ekonomi Pertanian, Sekolah Pascasarjana, Institut Pertanian Bogor, Bogor.
Taylor, J.E. and I. Adelman. 2003. Agricultural Household Models: Genesis,
Evolution and Extensions. University of California, Berkeley.
Thomas, R.L. 1997. Modern Econometric: An Introduction. Addison Wesley,
England.
Varian, H.R. 1992. Microeconomic Analysis. Third Edition. W.M. Norton and
Company, New York.
Verbeek, M. 2000. A Guide to Modern Econometric. Johns Wiley and Sons Ltd,
England.
Walter, J.T., R.K. Roberts, J.A. Larson, B.C. English and D.D. Howard. 2004.
Effects of Risk, Disease, and Nitrogen Source on Optimal Nitrogen
Fertilization Rates in Winter Wheat Production. Paper. Southern
Agricultural Economic Association, Tulsa, Oklahoma.
Wik, M., S. Holden and E.Taylor. 1998. Risk, Market Imperfections and Peasant
Adaptation : Evidence from Northern Zambia. Discussion Paper D-28.
Department of Economics and Social Sciences, The Agricultural University
of Norway.
Wincoop, E.V. 1992. Terms of Trade Uncertainty, Savings, and The Production
Structure. Elseveir Science Publishers, Amsterdam.
Lampiran 1. Hasil Estimasi Fungsi Variance Produksi Kentang Rumahtangga Petani
Sayuran di Kecamatan Pangalengan, Kabupaten Bandung dengan
Menggunakan GARCH (1,1) Program Eviews Versi 4.1
Dependent Variable: LOG(PRDKT)
Method: ML - ARCH (Marquardt)
Date: 03/17/07 Time: 21:47
Sample: 1 429
Included observations: 429
Convergence achieved after 14 iterations
Variance backcast: ON
Coefficient
Std.
Error
z-Statistic
Prob.
C 8.128500
0.502056
16.19041
0.0000
LOG(LHGKT) 0.081500
0.008550
9.532253
0.0000
LOG(PBNHKT) 0.076096
0.036245
2.099471
0.0358
LOG(PPKNKT) 0.080613
0.020718
3.891004
0.0001
LOG(PPKPKT) -0.073362
0.020000
-3.668048
0.0002
LOG(PPKKT) -0.055747
0.020824
-2.677027
0.0074
LOG(TKKT) 0.093216
0.020610
4.522820
0.0000
LOG(PESKT) 0.062188
0.020620
3.015877
0.0026
Variance Equation
C 0.076795
0.062150
1.235646
0.2166
ARCH(1) 0.216454
0.081986
2.640147
0.0083
GARCH(1) 0.327662
0.135096
2.425400
0.0153
LOG(LHGKT) -0.001792
0.001599
-1.120780
0.2624
LOG(PBNHKT) -0.015695
0.006316
-2.485088
0.0130
LOG(PPKNKT) 0.005400
0.002974
1.815526
0.0694
LOG(PPKPKT) 0.000763
0.002669
0.285800
0.7750
LOG(PPKKT) 0.002616
0.003753
0.697059
0.4858
LOG(TKKT) 0.003520
0.004661
0.755185
0.4501
LOG(PESKT) -0.001806
0.002403
-0.751769
0.4522
R-squared
0.329445 Mean dependent var
9.918944
Adjusted R-squared
0.301710 S.D. dependent var
0.185884
S.E. of regression
0.155332 Akaike info criterion
-0.959857
Sum squared resid
9.916570 Schwarz criterion
-0.789446
Log likelihood
223.8894 F-statistic
11.87797
Durbin-Watson stat
1.503757 Prob(F-statistic)
0.000000
Lampiran 2. Hasil Estimasi Fungsi Variance Produksi Kubis Rumahtangga Petani
Sayuran di Kecamatan Pangalengan, Kabupaten Bandung dengan
Menggunakan GARCH (1,1) Program Eviews Versi 4.1
Dependent Variable: LOG(PRDKB)
Method: ML - ARCH (Marquardt)
Date: 03/18/07 Time: 10:50
Sample: 1 429
Included observations: 429
Convergence achieved after 6 iterations
Variance backcast: ON
Coefficient
Std.
Error
z-Statistic
Prob.
C 9.671516
0.192362
50.27772
0.0000
LOG(LHGKB) 0.051083
0.006388
7.997019
0.0000
LOG(PBNHKB) -0.043187
0.026398
-1.636016
0.1018
LOG(PPKNKB) 0.031334
0.009944
3.151012
0.0016
LOG(PNPKB) 0.002310
0.001786
1.293839
0.1957
LOG(TKKB) 0.049658
0.010956
4.532528
0.0000
LOG(PESKB) 0.022334
0.004745
4.706460
0.0000
Variance Equation
C 0.000855
0.001526
0.560578
0.5751
ARCH(1) 0.003883
0.023885
0.162555
0.8709
GARCH(1) 0.725948
0.025232
28.77107
0.0000
LOG(LHGKB) 0.000500
0.000111
4.495939
0.0000
LOG(PBNHKB) -0.000121
0.000193
-0.628938
0.5294
LOG(PPKNKB) -0.000199
0.000213
-0.934059
0.3503
LOG(PNPKB) -0.000042
4.85E-05
-0.875238
0.3814
LOG(TKKB) -0.000073
0.000238
-0.307943
0.7581
LOG(PESKB) 0.000221
0.000112
1.982893
0.0474
R-squared
0.280205 Mean dependent var
10.15919
Adjusted R-squared
0.254062 S.D. dependent var
0.068388
S.E. of regression
0.059065 Akaike info criterion
-3.025148
Sum squared resid
1.440829 Schwarz criterion
-2.873671
Log likelihood
664.8942 F-statistic
10.71828
Durbin-Watson stat
1.798831 Prob(F-statistic)
0.000000
Lampiran 3. Program Komputer Estimasi, Validasi dan Simulasi Model Ekonomi
Rumahtangga Petani Sayuran Menggunakan Program SAS Versi 9.0
File > Import Data > Microsoft Excel > D\my document\dt.olah > Sheet 8 >
work > Anfar
DATA OLAH;
SET anfar;
PKT =
LHGKT *PRDKT;
TKDKT =
TKPDKT + TKWDKT;
TKLKT =
TKPLKT +TKWLKT;
PKB =
LHGKB *PRDKB;
NPPKT =
PPKNKT*HPPKN+PPKPKT*HPPKP+PPKKT*HPPKK;
NPPKB =
PPKNKB*HPPKN+PPKPKB*HPPKP+PNPKB*HPNPK;
KONS =
PPANG + PNPG;
PENG =
KONS + PKS + PPEND;
TPOF =
PPOF + PWOF;
TBUKT =
HBNHKT*PBNHKT + HPPKN*PPKNKT + HPPKP*PPKPKT + PESKT +
UPON*TKPLKT + UWON*TKWLKT;
TBUKB =
HBNHKB*PBNHKB + HPNPK*PNPKB + PESKB + UPON*TKPLKB +
UWON*TKWLKB;
PUTKT =
PKT*EXPHRGKT -LHGKT*TBUKT;
PUTKB =
PKB*EXPHRGKB - LHGKB*TBUKB;
TPNF =
PPNF + PWNF;
TPUT =
PUTKT + PUTKB +PUNTB;
TPRT =
TPUT + TPOF + TPNF;
run;
PROC SYSLIN 2SLS DATA= OLAH OUTEST=HASIL;
endogenous
LHGKT PRDKT PKT PBNHKT PPKNKT PPKPKT PESKT TKPDKT TKWDKT TKPLKT TKWLKT
TKDKT TKLKT LHGKB PRDKB PKB PBNHKB PNPKB PESKB TKPDKB TKWDKB TKPLKB
TKWLKB TKPOF TKWOF TKPNF TKWNF KONS PENG PPOF PWOF TPOF TBUKT TBUKB
PUTKT PUTKB PPNF PWNF TPNF TPUT TPRT PPANG PNPG PKS PPEND TAB INVES
NPPKT NPPKB;
instruments
EXPHRGKT EXPHRGKB HBNHKT SDHRGKT SDHRGKB SDPRDKT SDPRDKB EXPRDKT EXPRDKB
UPOF UWOF UPON UWON HPPKN HPPKP HPPKK HPNPK JAKP JAKW HBNHKB UPNF UWNF
PENDP PENDW JART JAKSEK;
Model LHGKT
= HPPKP UPON SDPRDKT SDHRGKT LHGKB PESKT;
Model PRDKT
= EXPHRGKT HPPKN PBNHKT SDPRDKT UPON;
* PKT
= LHGKT *PRDKT;
Model PBNHKT
= HBNHKT LHGKT EXPHRGKT EXPRDKT TBUKT TKDKT SDPRDKT
SDPRDTB/NOINT;
Model PPKNKT
= HPPKN LHGKT SDPRDTB SDPRDKT;
Model PPKPKT
= HPPKP TKDKT EXPRDKT INVES SDHRGKT;
Model PESKT
= LHGKT SDHRGKT SDPRDKT;
*NPPKT =
PPKNKT*HPPKN+PPKPKT*HPPKP+PPKKT*HPPKK;
Model TKPDKT
= TKPLKT TKPNF TKPOF EXPHRGKT PPKNKT SDPRDKT TKPDKB;
Model TKWDKT
= UWON TKWNF PESKT NPPKT SDPRDKT;
Model TKPLKT
= LHGKT SDHRGKT EXPRDKT NPPKT;
Model TKWLKT
= EXPRDKT TKWDKT SDHRGKT SDPRDKT;
IDENTITY TKDKT = TKPDKT + TKWDKT;
IDENTITY TKLKT = TKPLKT +TKWLKT;
Model LHGKB
= UPON NPPKB LHGKT EXPRDKB SDHRGKB SDPRDKB PESKB;
Model PRDKB
= PESKB SDHRGKB EXPHRGKT SDPRDKB NPPKB;
*PKB =
LHGKB *PRDKB;
Model PBNHKB
= EXPHRGKB SDPRDKB TBUKB INVES SDHRGKB TKPDKB;
Model PNPKB
= EXPHRGKB SDHRGKB HPPKP TBUKB;
* NPPKB
= PPKNKB*HPPKN+PPKPKB*HPPKP+PNPKB*HPNPK;
Model PESKB
= SDHRGKB EXPRDKB SDPRDKB PBNHKB TAB LHGKT/NOINT;
Model TKPDKB
= JAKP EXPHRGKB TKPNF UPON SDHRGKB;
Model TKWDKB
=JAKW EXPHRGKB EXPRDKB SDHRGKB INVES TKWNF UWON;
Model TKPLKB
= UPON SDHRGKB EXPHRGKB PNPKB PBNHKB LHGKT TPRT /NOINT;
Model TKWLKB
= UWON SDHRGKB INVES;
Model TKPOF
= UPOF EXPHRGKT PENG SDPRDKT SDHRGKT TAB;
Model TKWOF
= UWOF JAKW SDPRDKB EXPRDKT PWNF TBUKT;
Model TKPNF
= UPNF TKPDKT JAKP TPUT PENDP TKPOF SDPRDKT INVES;
Model TKWNF
= UWNF PENG EXPHRGKT SDPRDKT PENDW;
Model PPOF
= TKPOF UPOF SDHRGKB EXPHRGKT EXPHRGKB EXPRDKT;
Model PWOF
= TKWOF UWOF SDHRGKB EXPRDKT EXPRDKB SDPRDKB SDPRDKT;
Model PPNF
= TKPNF UPNF TPOF TPUT SDHRGKB SDPRDKT /NOINT;
Model PWNF
= UWNF EXPHRGKB TBUKT PENG SDPRDKT/NOINT;
Model PPANG
= JART TPRT EXPRDKB EXPRDKT SDPRDKT;
Model PNPG
= SDHRGKT SDHRGKB SDPRDKT TPRT EXPHRGKT/NOINT;
Model PKS
= PPEND TPRT SDHRGKB EXPRDKT EXPRDKB SDPRDKT/NOINT;
Model PPEND
= JAKSEK TPRT PENDP PENDW SDHRGKT SDHRGKB TAB/NOINT;
Model TAB
= TPRT KONS PPEND SDHRGKT EXPRDKT;
Model INVES
= TPRT SDPRDKT EXPRDKT;
IDENTITY KONS = PPANG + PNPG;
IDENTITY PENG = KONS + PKS +PPEND;
IDENTITY TPOF = PPOF + PWOF;
*TBUKT =
HBNHKT*PBNHKT + HPPKN*PPKNKT + HPPKP*PPKPKT + PESKT +
UPON*TKPLKT + UWON*TKWLKT;
*TBUKB =
HBNHKB*PBNHKB + HPNPK*PNPKB + PESKB + UPON*TKPLKB +
UWON*TKWLKB;
*PUTKT =
PKT*EXPHRGKT -LHGKT*TBUKT;
*PUTKB =
PKB*EXPHRGKB - LHGKB*TBUKB;
IDENTITY TPNF = PPNF + PWNF;
IDENTITY TPUT = PUTKT + PUTKB;
IDENTITY TPRT = TPUT + TPOF + TPNF;
run;
Quit;
/* DATA SIMULASI*/
DATA SIMULASI;
SET OLAH;
*SDPRDKT =1.05*SDPRDKT;
*SDHRGKB=1.05*SDHRGKB;
*UPON=1.2*UPON;
*UWON=1.2*UWON;
run;
DATA STRAT;
SET SIMULASI;
IF LARE <=0.50 THEN STRATA=1;
IF LARE >0.50 AND LARE <=1 THEN STRATA=2;
IF LARE >1 THEN STRATA=3;
DATA STRAT1 STRAT2 STRAT3;
SET STRAT;
IF STRATA=1 THEN OUTPUT STRAT1;
IF STRATA=2 THEN OUTPUT STRAT2;
IF STRATA=3 THEN OUTPUT STRAT3;
run;
PROC MODEL DATA=SIMULASI;
Endo LHGKT PRDKT PKT PBNHKT PPKNKT PPKPKT PESKT TKPDKT TKWDKT TKPLKT
TKWLKT TKDKT TKLKT LHGKB PRDKB PKB PBNHKB PNPKB PESKB TKPDKB TKWDKB
TKPLKB TKWLKB TKPOF TKWOF TKPNF TKWNF KONS PENG PPOF PWOF TPOF TBUKT
TBUKB PUTKT PUTKB PPNF PWNF TPNF TPUT TPRT PPANG PNPG PKS PPEND TAB
INVES NPPKT NPPKB;
EXO EXPHRGKT EXPHRGKB HBNHKT SDHRGKT SDHRGKB SDPRDKT SDPRDKB EXPRDKT
EXPRDKB UPOF UWOF UPON UWON HPPKN HPPKP HPPKK HPNPK JAKP JAKW HBNHKB
UPNF UWNF PENDP PENDW JART JAKSEK;
LHGKT
=
1
* 1.9842440 +
HPPKP
* -0.0004700 +
UPON
* -0.0000020 +
SDPRDKT
* -4.1356400 +
SDHRGKT
* -0.0005400 +
LHGKB
* 1.6983390 +
PESKT
* -0.0000001 ;
PRDKT
=
1
* 97716.370000
+
EXPHRGKT
* 3.935280
+
HPPKN
* -0.350660
+
PBNHKT
* 9.404099
+
SDPRDKT
*-672648.700000
+
UPON
* -0.132970
;
PBNHKT =
HBNHKT
* -0.087660
+
LHGKT
* 14.290960
+
EXPHRGKT
* 0.108420
+
EXPRDKT
* 0.005535
+
TBUKT
* 0.000052
+
TKDKT
* 0.375996
+
SDPRDKT
* -2375.740000
;
PPKNKT =
HPPKN
* -0.06814
+
LHGKT
* 5.677659
+
EXPRDKT
* 0.001767
+
SDPRDKT
* -1557.38000
+
TKLKT
* 0.063509
;
PPKPKT =
1
* 607.47990
+
HPPKP
* -0.11680
+
TKDKT
* 0.05860
+
EXPRDKT
* 0.00180
+
INVES
* -0.000008
+
SDHRGKT
* -0.02670
;
PESKT
= 1
*8035414.0000 +
LHGKT
*
175255.4000
+
SDHRGKT
* -2964.4400
+
SDPRDKT
*-6896195.0000
;
TKPDKT =
1
* 717.6339
+
TKPLKT
* -1.0149 +
TKPNF
* -0.0511
+
TKPOF
* -0.1457
+
EXPHRGKT
* 0.0120
+
PPKNKT
* 0.2848
+
SDPRDKT
* -3660.6000
+
TKPDKB
* 1.0298 ;
TKWDKT =
1
* 956.96530
+
UWON
* -0.01699
+
TKWNF
* -0.38002
+
PESKT
* -0.00007
+
NPPKT
* -0.00012
+
SDPRDKT
* -220.81200
;
TKPLKT =
1
* 342.05210
+
LHGKT
* 58.34699
+
SDHRGKT
* -0.15795
+
EXPRDKT
* 0.00099
+
NPPKT
* -0.00004
;
TKWLKT =
1
* 274.89630
+
EXPRDKT
* 0.00136
+
TKWDKT
* -0.36403
+
SDHRGKT
* -0.00889
+
SDPRDKT
* -457.63700
;
LHGKB
=
1
* 0.6463100
+
UPON
* -0.0000023
+
NPPKB
* -0.0000003
+
LHGKT
* 0.5552930
+
EXPRDKB
* 0.0000087
+
SDHRGKB
* -0.0000900
+
SDPRDKB
* -0.0835900
+
PESKB
* -0.00000001
;
PRDKB
=
1
* 35573.37000
+
PESKB
* -0.00009
+
SDHRGKB
* -0.41621
+
EXPHRGKT
* -1.31832
+
SDPRDKB
*
-18062.30000
+
NPPKB
* -0.00272
;
PBNHKB =
EXPRDKB
* 0.0055
+
SDPRDKB
* -119.0260
+
TKPDKB
* 0.7179
+
LHGKB
* 25.9652
;
PNPKB
=
1
* 224.508400
+
EXPHRGKB
* 0.140892
+
SDHRGKB
* -0.078980
+
HPPKP
* -0.030470
+
TBUKB
* -0.000001
;
PESKB
=
SDHRGKB
* -1023.3900
+
EXPRDKB
* 161.3410
+
SDPRDKB
*-11850000.0000
+
PBNHKB
* 11414.8400
+
TAB
* -0.0256
+
LHGKT
* 478.4366
;
TKPDKB =
1
*
24.00185
+
JAKP
*
44.64520
+
EXPHRGKB
*
0.05122
+
TKPNF
*
-0.15156
+
UPON
*
-0.00105
+
SDHRGKB
*
-0.03900
;
TKWDKB =
1
*
21.983260
+
JAKW
*
29.642540
+
EXPHRGKB
*
0.059671
+
EXPRDKB
*
0.000118
+
SDHRGKB
*
-0.008770
+
INVES
*
-0.000009
+
TKWNF
*
-0.114220
+
UWON
*
-0.007600
;
TKPLKB =
UPON
*
-0.00207000
+
SDHRGKB
*
-0.01725000
+
EXPHRGKB
*
0.00552400 +
PNPKB
*
0.04120400 +
PBNHKB *
0.56817600 +
LHGKT
*
-4.04005000
+
TPRT
*
0.00000005 ;
TKWLKB =
1
*
119.3898000 +
UWON
*
-0.0012300
+
SDHRGKB
*
-0.0458000 +
INVES
*
-0.0000065
;
TKPOF = 1
*
42.8244200
+
UPOF
*
0.0113580
+
EXPHRGKT
*
-0.0227800
+
PENG
*
0.0000002
+
SDPRDKT
*
42.9405300
+
SDHRGKT
* 0.0103420 +
TAB
* 0.0000003 ;
TKWOF = 1
*
-20.653700 +
UWOF
*
0.020218 +
JAKW
*
6.490966 +
SDPRDKB
*
211.306000 +
EXPRDKT
*
-0.000130 +
PWNF
*
-0.00000005+
TBUKT
*
0.00000028;
TKPNF
=
1
* -78.62900
+
UPNF
* 0.00096
+
TKPDKT
* -0.21333
+
JAKP
* 64.86785
+
TPUT
* -0.0000003 +
PENDP
* 5.22430
+
TKPOF
* -0.01436
+
SDPRDKT
* 411.20520
+
INVES
*
0.00000575 ;
TKWNF = 1
*
108.6744
+
UWNF
*
0.002599 +
PENG
*
0.000003
+
EXPHRGKT
*
-0.06843
+
SDPRDKT
* 43.46911
+
PENDW
*
6.204705
;
PPOF
=
1
* 64889.5000
+
TKPOF
* 7948.5740
+
UPOF
* 43.3240
+
SDHRGKB
* 280.8195
+
EXPHRGKT
* -4.5572
+
EXPHRGKB
* -97.3236
+
EXPRDKT
* -3.9076
;
PWOF = 1
*
569356.1000 +
TKWOF
*
5573.7610 +
UWOF
*
37.9492 +
SDHRGKB
*
85.7367
+
EXPRDKT
*
-1.7020 +
EXPRDKB
*
-1.1385 +
SDPRDKB
*
1130238.0000 +
SDPRDKT
*
3140807.0000 ;
PPNF = TKPNF
*
11831.1400
+
UPNF
*
393.4190 +
TPOF
*
-0.2676
+
TPUT
*
-0.0080 +
SDHRGKB
*
8651.2380 +
SDPRDKT
*
4719935.0000 ;
PWNF
=
UWNF
* 400.8930
+
EXPHRGKB
* -1105.28000
+
TBUKT
* 0.00227
+
PENG
* 0.00643
+
SDPRDKT
* 4751146.00000
;
PPANG
=
1
* 827766.40000
+
JART
* 677301.10000
+
TPRT
* 0.01083
+
EXPRDKB
* 89.07011
+
EXPRDKT
* 26.54464
+
SDPRDKT
*
-9814905.0000 ;
PNPG = SDHRGKT *
-12634.1000 +
SDHRGKB
* -1348.4700
+
SDPRDKT
*
-8566740.0000 +
TPRT
* 0.0144
+
EXPHRGKT
* 6266.2700
;
PKS
=
PPEND
* -0.10796
+
TPRT
* 0.00119
+
SDHRGKB
* -176.96400
+
EXPRDKT
* 29.36982
+
EXPRDKB
* 26.56246
+
SDPRDKT *
-3219789.00000 ;
PPEND
=
JAKSEK
* 1640931.0000
+
TPRT
* 0.0083
+
PENDP
* 78480.8400
+
PENDW
* 106136.9000
+
SDHRGKT
* -2354.7500
+
SDHRGKB
* -216.2270
+
TAB
* -0.0990
;
TAB
=
1
* 3839788.0000
+
TPRT
* 0.0268
+
KONS
* -0.0107
+
PPEND
* -0.0276
+
SDHRGKT
* -1441.8600
+
EXPRDKT
* 111.8079
;
INVES
=
1
* 559373.3000
+
TPRT
* 0.0021
+
SDPRDKT
*
-1746869.0000 +
EXPRDKT
* 21.1887
;
PKT =
LHGKT *PRDKT;
TKDKT =
TKPDKT + TKWDKT;
TKLKT =
TKPLKT +TKWLKT;
PKB =
LHGKB *PRDKB;
NPPKT =
PPKNKT*HPPKN+PPKPKT*HPPKP+PPKKT*HPPKK;
NPPKB =
PPKNKB*HPPKN+PPKPKB*HPPKP+PNPKB*HPNPK;
KONS =
PPANG + PNPG;
PENG =
KONS + PKS + PPEND;
TPOF =
PPOF + PWOF;
TBUKT =
HBNHKT*PBNHKT + HPPKN*PPKNKT + HPPKP*PPKPKT + PESKT +
UPON*TKPLKT + UWON*TKWLKT;
TBUKB =
HBNHKB*PBNHKB + HPNPK*PNPKB + PESKB + UPON*TKPLKB +
UWON*TKWLKB;
PUTKT =
PKT*EXPHRGKT -LHGKT*TBUKT;
PUTKB =
PKB*EXPHRGKB - LHGKB*TBUKB;
TPNF =
PPNF + PWNF;
TPUT =
PUTKT + PUTKB +PUNTB;
TPRT =
TPUT + TPOF + TPNF;
SOLVE LHGKT PRDKT PKT PBNHKT PPKNKT PPKPKT PESKT TKPDKT TKWDKT TKPLKT
TKWLKT TKDKT TKLKT LHGKB PRDKB PKB PBNHKB PNPKB PESKB TKPDKB TKWDKB
TKPLKB TKWLKB TKPOF TKWOF TKPNF TKWNF KONS PENG PPOF PWOF TPOF TBUKT
TBUKB PUTKT PUTKB PPNF PWNF TPNF TPUT TPRT PPANG PNPG PKS PPEND TAB
INVES NPPKT NPPKB/
STAT THEIL SEIDEL DATA= STRAT1 OUT=OUTSIM OUTPREDICT;
run;
Lampiran 4. Hasil Validasi
Model Ekonomi Rumahtangga Petani Sayuran Lahan Sempit
Actual Predicted
Variable N Obs N Mean Std Dev Mean Std Dev LHGKT 62 62 0.4390 0.1720 0.4698 0.1457 PRDKT 62 62 19420.1 2137.3 19850.0 779.7 PKT 62 62 8495.8 3443.3 9323.2 2911.1 PBNHKT 62 62 1526.8 186.5 1524.5 83.2465 PPKNKT 62 62 411.3 92.4668 404.2 14.7459 PPKPKT 62 62 457.8 97.1349 452.6 17.7278 PESKT 62 62 5274131 1504425 5596032 402776 TKPDKT 62 62 405.6 166.4 321.7 41.1949 TKWDKT 62 62 284.7 281.9 178.0 47.0109 TKPLKT 62 62 178.2 91.8396 227.9 25.8614 TKWLKT 62 62 135.3 126.9 170.7 19.0909 TKDKT 62 62 690.3 338.7 499.7 57.8414 TKLKT 62 62 313.5 164.8 398.6 33.1889 LHGKB 62 62 0.3829 0.1330 0.4356 0.1229 PRDKB 62 62 25241.4 975.7 25564.6 1143.0 PKB 62 62 9751.3 3601.3 11248.1 3524.9 PBNHKB 62 62 254.3 26.2064 251.6 9.9693 PNPKB 62 62 313.0 101.6 298.5 22.8202 PESKB 62 62 5249758 2708408 6063044 757816 TKPDKB 62 62 148.8 38.4083 134.6 20.1469 TKWDKB 62 62 92.4433 84.3681 76.6204 18.9115 TKPLKB 62 62 145.8 37.8622 135.4 8.3216 TKWLKB 62 62 107.9 50.4946 96.2975 9.3642 TKPOF 62 62 35.2903 63.3135 35.6439 55.6943 TKWOF 62 62 27.3871 64.7893 28.7755 58.9453 TKPNF 62 62 70.4194 158.8 62.6632 98.0147 TKWNF 62 62 34.5484 94.5189 43.8547 90.7882 KONS 62 62 11131222 11673492 12995049 3806205 PENG 62 62 12930642 12623948 15006429 5140066 PPOF 62 62 369944 720218 377725 657027 PWOF 62 62 193783 493825 206363 444329 TPOF 62 62 563727 925614 584087 888698 TBUKT 62 62 20293777 3098766 21285925 2175674 TBUKB 62 62 8941579 2940803 9498568 922141 PUTKT 62 62 12181729 5130213 13315410 4399890 PUTKB 62 62 7358978 3531135 8367415 3487806 PPNF 62 62 5927823 29493775 5899192 27299267 PWNF 62 62 2268388 13758750 2161512 13108431 TPNF 62 62 8196211 42407594 8060704 39371350 TPUT 62 62 22618442 8433983 21682825 6966290 TPRT 62 62 31378380 46326867 30327617 41370670 PPANG 62 62 4902074 2442178 5232019 1243232 PNPG 62 62 6229148 10742758 7763029 2968213 PKS 62 62 386290 368143 674105 276902 PPEND 62 62 1413129 1583809 1337275 1534970 TAB 62 62 4868705 1804939 5949737 1169034 INVES 62 62 685242 1237729 780960 280954 NPPKT 62 62 1912424 301031 1358891 76913.9 NPPKB 62 62 1918356 347372 1109335 96772.5
Lampiran 4. Lanjutan
Statistics of fitMean Mean % Mean Abs Mean Abs RMS RMS %
Variable N Error Error Error % Error Error Error R-Square LHGKT 62 0.0308 11.0203 0.0471 13.4765 0.0531 17.0453 0.9033 PRDKT 62 429.9 3.3886 1826.0 9.5196 2308.1 11.9629 -.1852 PKT 62 827.4 14.7143 1312.1 18.2285 1651.9 23.3608 0.7661 PBNHKT 62 -2.2833 1.1910 154.6 10.0874 195.2 12.5388 -.1129 PPKNKT 62 -7.0239 3.2379 66.5154 17.2090 88.6616 24.0653 0.0655 PPKPKT 62 -5.2213 3.1608 80.8540 18.1308 94.8121 21.6651 0.0316 PESKT 62 321901 13.5183 1302278 26.2853 1537997 31.4574 -.0623 TKPDKT 62 -83.8289 -8.1144 129.5 29.4310 172.7 36.1456 -.0947 TKWDKT 62 -106.7 6649.8 240.4 6715.6 289.4 10910.4 -.0712 TKPLKT 62 49.6810 70.6293 82.2237 80.8678 96.9365 123.1 -.1323 TKWLKT 62 35.3762 5512.8 114.0 5539.2 126.8 9513.5 -.0163 TKDKT 62 -190.6 -5.2029 282.5 43.5052 374.3 58.0257 -.2413 TKLKT 62 85.0572 85.1998 148.2 96.0277 177.7 172.0 -.1813 LHGKB 62 0.0527 19.8021 0.0866 27.8081 0.1036 37.2413 0.3827
PRDKB 62 323.2 1.3462 882.7 3.5284 1108.9 4.4684 -.3129 PKB 62 1496.9 22.3000 2484.6 31.3573 3025.3 42.2149 0.2828 PBNHKB 62 -2.7491 -0.1499 19.1797 7.7268 23.5956 9.9459 0.1760 PNPKB 62 -14.5596 1273.2 67.7454 1293.3 99.6380 5885.7 0.0216 PESKB 62 813286 34.5278 2168320 46.9902 2820373 57.1532 -.1022 TKPDKB 62 -14.2235 -5.0883 28.2358 17.7683 39.2877 23.3128 -.0635 TKWDKB 62 -15.8229 2880.0 74.8205 2933.7 83.0263 4735.6 0.0157 TKPLKB 62 -10.4251 0.2991 32.2440 23.6061 39.7275 32.2044 -.1190 TKWLKB 62 -11.5603 2.4256 31.5064 27.9548 49.6371 35.1887 0.0178 TKPOF 62 0.3536 77.2942 17.6392 597.9 29.8685 993.8 0.7738 TKWOF 62 1.3885 24.9137 15.1850 362.9 33.5546 694.6 0.7274 TKPNF 62 -7.7562 2960.9 77.4117 3336.2 127.7 5400.7 0.3426 TKWNF 62 9.3063 2136.4 49.0281 2566.2 76.5165 3344.7 0.3339 KONS 62 1863827 62.4857 6629942 76.5303 11288897 95.7853 0.0495 PENG 62 2075787 57.5338 7239440 71.7475 11874948 89.7867 0.1006 PPOF 62 7780.3 -980798 175126 5421321 309562 9381198 0.8122 PWOF 62 12579.8 -135683 108492 2422461 241507 4543738 0.7569 TPOF 62 20360.1 56317.1 206288 2454936 360630 4270086 0.8457 TBUKT 62 992147 6.5253 2362037 12.1670 2896392 15.2123 0.1120 TBUKB 62 556988 13.8252 2175396 24.9852 2904250 30.4315 0.0087 PUTKT 62 1133681 15.1680 2606791 23.5325 3618723 30.0289 0.4943 PUTKB 62 1008437 24.9544 1995486 36.9796 2543302 55.5260 0.4727 PPNF 62 -28631.7 -8.332E7 3511910 1.0255E8 7030513 1.3735E8 0.9422 PWNF 62 -101863 -3.969E7 960645 39691886 2435613 45710471 0.9681 TPNF 62 -135507 -5.053E7 4057331 56378280 7642598 77589008 0.9670 TPUT 62 -935616 -0.1510 3563846 16.3591 4912596 21.1368 0.6552 TPRT 62 -1050763 3.4920 6479528 24.6501 10700109 44.6599 0.9458 PPANG 62 329945 25.0066 1812973 42.9250 2418127 55.6110 0.0035 PNPG 62 1533881 187.5 5491061 201.1 10512783 314.7 0.0267 PKS 62 287815 277.2 498400 305.4 565507 492.6 -.3981 PPEND 62 -75854.6 -1.394E7 998004 18393050 1263166 35005272 0.3535 TAB 62 1081032 41.2406 1534390 47.2997 1892330 82.3325 -.1172 INVES 62 95718.5 211.0 723676 229.3 1235865 357.6 -.0133 NPPKT 62 -553533 -27.2816 555672 27.4383 623625 29.6296 -.3626 NPPKB 62 -809021 -40.2353 809021 40.2353 879875 42.0885 -.5213
Lampiran 4. Lanjutan
Theil Forecast Error Statistics MSE Decomposition Proportions
Corr Bias Reg Dist Var Covar Inequality Coef Variable N MSE (R) (UM) (UR) (UD) (US) (UC) U1 U LHGKT 62 0.00282 0.98 0.34 0.17 0.49 0.24 0.42 0.1127 0.0551 PRDKT 62 5327104 -0.02 0.03 0.12 0.84 0.34 0.62 0.1181 0.0586 PKT 62 2728646 0.91 0.25 0.02 0.73 0.10 0.65 0.1804 0.0873 PBNHKT 62 38102.0 0.10 0.00 0.11 0.89 0.28 0.72 0.1269 0.0637 PPKNKT 62 7860.9 0.30 0.01 0.02 0.97 0.76 0.24 0.2104 0.1074 PPKPKT 62 8989.3 0.19 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.69 0.31 0.2027 0.1030 PESKT 62 2.365E12 0.10 0.04 0.03 0.93 0.50 0.45 0.2806 0.1387 TKPDKT 62 29828.9 0.45 0.24 0.04 0.73 0.52 0.25 0.3944 0.2266 TKWDKT 62 83754.2 0.31 0.14 0.02 0.85 0.65 0.22 0.7252 0.4963 TKPLKT 62 9396.7 0.43 0.26 0.02 0.72 0.46 0.28 0.4843 0.2257 TKWLKT 62 16090.5 0.28 0.08 0.02 0.90 0.71 0.21 0.6866 0.3559 TKDKT 62 140115 0.32 0.26 0.02 0.72 0.55 0.19 0.4876 0.2946 TKLKT 62 31573.5 0.32 0.23 0.01 0.76 0.54 0.23 0.5025 0.2358 LHGKB 62 0.0107 0.76 0.26 0.05 0.70 0.01 0.73 0.2559 0.1209 PRDKB 62 1229692 0.50 0.08 0.34 0.57 0.02 0.89 0.0439 0.0218 PKB 62 9152195 0.72 0.24 0.09 0.66 0.00 0.75 0.2913 0.1365 PBNHKB 62 556.8 0.44 0.01 0.00 0.98 0.47 0.52 0.0923 0.0465 PNPKB 62 9927.7 0.21 0.02 0.00 0.98 0.61 0.36 0.3030 0.1586 PESKB 62 7.955E12 0.12 0.08 0.02 0.89 0.47 0.45 0.4783 0.2349 TKPDKB 62 1543.5 0.33 0.13 0.03 0.84 0.21 0.66 0.2557 0.1356 TKWDKB 62 6893.4 0.23 0.04 0.00 0.96 0.61 0.35 0.6658 0.4078 TKPLKB 62 1578.3 0.01 0.07 0.04 0.89 0.54 0.39 0.2638 0.1388 TKWLKB 62 2463.8 0.28 0.05 0.01 0.94 0.68 0.27 0.4174 0.2302 TKPOF 62 892.1 0.88 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.06 0.94 0.4146 0.2168 TKWOF 62 1125.9 0.85 0.00 0.01 0.99 0.03 0.97 0.4803 0.2485 TKPNF 62 16311.5 0.59 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.22 0.77 0.7402 0.4431 TKWNF 62 5854.8 0.66 0.01 0.14 0.85 0.00 0.98 0.7658 0.3824 KONS 62 1.274E14 0.28 0.03 0.00 0.97 0.48 0.49 0.7028 0.3815 PENG 62 1.41E14 0.36 0.03 0.00 0.97 0.39 0.58 0.6597 0.3508 PPOF 62 9.583E10 0.90 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.04 0.96 0.3848 0.1987 PWOF 62 5.833E10 0.87 0.00 0.00 0.99 0.04 0.96 0.4585 0.2383 TPOF 62 1.301E11 0.92 0.00 0.01 0.99 0.01 0.99 0.3347 0.1689 TBUKT 62 8.389E12 0.51 0.12 0.04 0.84 0.10 0.78 0.1411 0.0691 TBUKB 62 8.435E12 0.23 0.04 0.01 0.96 0.48 0.49 0.3088 0.1533 PUTKT 62 1.31E13 0.75 0.10 0.02 0.88 0.04 0.86 0.2741 0.1330 PUTKB 62 6.468E12 0.78 0.16 0.09 0.76 0.00 0.84 0.3121 0.1478
PPNF 62 4.943E13 0.97 0.00 0.04 0.96 0.10 0.90 0.2355 0.1221 PWNF 62 5.933E12 0.98 0.00 0.03 0.97 0.07 0.93 0.1761 0.0902 TPNF 62 5.841E13 0.98 0.00 0.10 0.90 0.16 0.84 0.1783 0.0924 TPUT 62 2.413E13 0.82 0.04 0.00 0.96 0.09 0.88 0.2037 0.1048 TPRT 62 1.145E14 0.98 0.01 0.13 0.86 0.21 0.78 0.1923 0.1003 PPANG 62 5.847E12 0.28 0.02 0.05 0.93 0.24 0.74 0.4422 0.2230 PNPG 62 1.105E14 0.22 0.02 0.00 0.98 0.54 0.44 0.8517 0.5092 PKS 62 3.198E11 -0.14 0.26 0.33 0.41 0.03 0.72 1.0638 0.4490 PPEND 62 1.596E12 0.67 0.00 0.14 0.86 0.00 0.99 0.5978 0.3052 TAB 62 3.581E12 0.51 0.33 0.02 0.66 0.11 0.56 0.3648 0.1682 INVES 62 1.527E12 0.10 0.01 0.02 0.98 0.59 0.40 0.8790 0.5529 NPPKT 62 3.889E11 0.27 0.79 0.00 0.21 0.13 0.09 0.3222 0.1892 NPPKB 62 7.742E11 0.13 0.85 0.00 0.15 0.08 0.07 0.4514 0.2873
Lampiran 4. Lanjutan
Theil Relative Change Forecast Error Statistics Relative Change MSE Decomposition Proportions
Corr Bias Reg Dist Var Covar Inequality Coef Variable N MSE (R) (UM) (UR) (UD) (US) (UC) U1 U LHGKT 61 0.0294 0.46 0.39 0.32 0.29 0.06 0.55 1.5766 0.5548 PRDKT 61 0.0148 0.63 0.04 0.08 0.89 0.03 0.93 0.8252 0.4381 PKT 61 0.0515 0.49 0.35 0.22 0.43 0.01 0.64 1.2921 0.5219 PBNHKT 61 0.0173 0.55 0.00 0.08 0.92 0.05 0.95 0.8686 0.4806 PPKNKT 61 0.0631 0.72 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.18 0.81 0.6876 0.4042 PPKPKT 61 0.0514 0.73 0.01 0.01 0.98 0.26 0.74 0.6859 0.4157 PESKT 61 0.1047 0.65 0.03 0.00 0.97 0.18 0.79 0.7582 0.4352 TKPDKT 61 0.2090 0.48 0.11 0.16 0.73 0.01 0.88 1.0137 0.5347 TKWDKT 61 37814.8 0.73 0.09 0.18 0.73 0.58 0.33 0.7033 0.4905 TKPLKT 61 0.7283 0.74 0.33 0.23 0.44 0.05 0.62 0.9673 0.3957 TKWLKT 61 5362.5 0.73 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.13 0.87 0.6001 0.3288 TKDKT 61 0.4721 0.75 0.20 0.00 0.80 0.15 0.65 0.7158 0.4249 TKLKT 61 1.5428 0.69 0.17 0.39 0.44 0.12 0.72 1.0254 0.4112 LHGKB 61 0.1511 0.43 0.26 0.63 0.10 0.36 0.38 2.7597 0.6736 PRDKB 61 0.00195 0.48 0.08 0.31 0.62 0.01 0.92 1.1077 0.5099 PKB 61 0.1933 0.48 0.26 0.62 0.12 0.34 0.40 2.4824 0.6452 PBNHKB 61 0.00873 0.70 0.01 0.03 0.96 0.06 0.93 0.7256 0.4001 PNPKB 61 72.1409 0.99 0.00 0.03 0.97 0.06 0.94 0.1184 0.0601 PESKB 61 0.3019 0.52 0.19 0.15 0.66 0.00 0.80 1.0250 0.4814 TKPDKB 61 0.0603 0.59 0.08 0.19 0.74 0.00 0.92 0.9394 0.4681 TKWDKB 61 2895.5 0.76 0.05 0.11 0.84 0.45 0.50 0.6193 0.3930 TKPLKB 61 0.0898 0.81 0.06 0.04 0.90 0.26 0.68 0.6136 0.3669 TKWLKB 61 0.1452 0.69 0.01 0.00 0.98 0.14 0.85 0.7199 0.4171 TKPOF 61 394.1 0.91 0.04 0.11 0.85 0.02 0.94 0.4066 0.1952 TKWOF 61 994.4 0.87 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.07 0.92 0.4607 0.2456 TKPNF 61 9413.5 0.68 0.00 0.00 0.99 0.14 0.86 0.6896 0.3946 TKWNF 61 5694.5 0.67 0.01 0.13 0.86 0.00 0.99 0.7517 0.3780 KONS 61 5.9477 0.45 0.01 0.00 0.99 0.37 0.62 0.8709 0.5695 PENG 61 5.9527 0.55 0.00 0.01 0.99 0.39 0.61 0.8172 0.5306 PPOF 61 5.012E10 0.92 0.02 0.02 0.97 0.00 0.98 0.3715 0.1862 PWOF 61 5.094E10 0.89 0.00 0.00 0.99 0.10 0.90 0.4341 0.2325 TPOF 61 2.131E10 0.94 0.01 0.03 0.96 0.00 0.99 0.3223 0.1602 TBUKT 61 0.0222 0.79 0.10 0.02 0.88 0.03 0.87 0.6464 0.3330 TBUKB 61 0.0971 0.61 0.09 0.07 0.84 0.04 0.87 0.8510 0.4431 PUTKT 61 0.0966 0.70 0.17 0.21 0.62 0.02 0.82 0.8898 0.3987 PUTKB 61 0.3377 0.92 0.15 0.45 0.40 0.29 0.55 0.5867 0.2474 PPNF 61 1.507E13 0.99 0.00 0.09 0.91 0.13 0.87 0.1399 0.0717 PWNF 61 5.995E12 0.98 0.00 0.03 0.97 0.07 0.93 0.1755 0.0899 TPNF 61 5.021E12 1.00 0.01 0.28 0.71 0.32 0.67 0.1078 0.0556 TPUT 61 0.0584 0.70 0.01 0.29 0.70 0.04 0.96 0.8351 0.3893 TPRT 61 0.1665 0.94 0.00 0.01 0.99 0.07 0.93 0.3352 0.1753 PPANG 61 0.3746 0.63 0.05 0.18 0.77 0.00 0.95 0.8561 0.4134 PNPG 61 125.7 0.40 0.00 0.01 0.99 0.57 0.43 0.9033 0.6665 PKS 61 13.4696 0.39 0.15 0.47 0.38 0.08 0.77 1.3939 0.5346 PPEND 61 6.697E11 0.78 0.01 0.01 0.98 0.05 0.94 0.5883 0.3165 TAB 61 0.2271 0.87 0.29 0.08 0.63 0.00 0.70 0.5930 0.2749 INVES 61 23.4346 0.51 0.00 0.01 0.99 0.41 0.58 0.8223 0.5311 NPPKT 61 0.1168 0.75 0.76 0.02 0.22 0.11 0.13 1.4066 0.6295 NPPKB 61 0.2206 0.69 0.84 0.01 0.15 0.08 0.08 1.8561 0.6998
Lampiran 5. Hasil Validasi
Model Ekonomi Rumahtangga Petani Lahan Sedang
Descriptive Statistics
Actual Predicted
Variable N Obs N Mean Std Dev Mean Std Dev LHGKT 34 34 1.1454 0.2538 1.1277 0.2172 PRDKT 34 34 20497.8 2282.5 20465.1 895.5 PKT 34 34 23526.5 6308.7 23079.8 4599.2 PBNHKT 34 34 1612.3 241.4 1559.6 96.9470 PPKNKT 34 34 403.7 112.9 414.5 18.5993 PPKPKT 34 34 449.2 107.5 452.4 23.9191 PESKT 34 34 6151591 1758815 5787453 303434 TKPDKT 34 34 187.5 104.6 269.5 34.0567 TKWDKT 34 34 105.2 169.0 140.1 60.4267 TKPLKT 34 34 304.1 104.5 274.1 21.2440 TKWLKT 34 34 214.6 105.7 186.1 28.8353 TKDKT 34 34 292.7 223.7 409.6 57.2370 TKLKT 34 34 518.6 148.0 460.2 35.8569 LHGKB 34 34 0.8804 0.2530 0.8395 0.1567 PRDKB 34 34 26150.0 813.0 26099.6 1283.8 PKB 34 34 23039.9 6758.4 22020.1 4855.6 PBNHKB 34 34 251.4 15.3881 252.6 2.8047 PNPKB 34 34 261.1 173.3 280.9 25.4192 PESKB 34 34 7335103 6408449 6326374 604988 TKPDKB 34 34 90.2115 35.2286 115.7 19.0772 TKWDKB 34 34 43.6185 65.6624 60.1265 24.2129 TKPLKB 34 34 120.9 34.4763 132.9 5.1181 TKWLKB 34 34 78.4702 23.9858 92.3734 9.6846 TKPOF 34 34 19.7353 59.1425 16.7589 44.7226 TKWOF 34 34 5.2059 24.5243 3.0190 19.6489 TKPNF 34 34 28.0882 64.5475 43.3216 46.7148 TKWNF 34 34 16.8235 64.4344 31.4469 30.6959 KONS 34 34 16582753 19143592 13413954 3590442 PENG 34 34 18886106 20095595 15374709 4843051 PPOF 34 34 201648 647087 175183 561334 PWOF 34 34 25412.7 148175 7928.1 142940 TPOF 34 34 227061 742135 183111 625074 TBUKT 34 34 22698608 2640566 21544667 1839178 TBUKB 34 34 10350895 6483278 9653332 697591 PUTKT 34 34 32483715 13704966 33001633 8488653 PUTKB 34 34 13720201 8606834 13734239 5662796 PPNF 34 34 672354 1800335 642069 4564947 PWNF 34 34 94118.6 548795 203893 947558 TPNF 34 34 766472 1847156 438176 4617258 TPUT 34 34 50800024 19649024 46735872 11680977 TPRT 34 34 51793557 19681860 47357159 13004561 PPANG 34 34 5998753 3473068 5568964 1214943 PNPG 34 34 10584000 18137998 7844990 2648555 PKS 34 34 1156941 3517702 773778 239344 PPEND 34 34 1146412 1572449 1186977 1404451 TAB 34 34 6918803 2915841 6484029 413456 INVES 34 34 1260162 1666627 800151 306564 NPPKT 34 34 1829216 340614 1343018 90073.5 NPPKB 34 34 1756294 463797 991761 129027
Lampiran 5. Lanjutan
Statistics of fit
Mean Mean % Mean Abs Mean Abs RMS RMS %
Variable N Error Error Error % Error Error Error R-Square LHGKT 34 -0.0177 -0.1759 0.1028 9.5503 0.1332 13.3813 0.7162 PRDKT 34 -32.7100 0.8969 1742.7 8.6741 2103.0 10.6100 0.1254 PKT 34 -446.7 0.6008 3026.8 12.6304 3863.9 15.8974 0.6135 PBNHKT 34 -52.6790 -1.6610 157.7 9.0471 235.9 12.4984 0.0160 PPKNKT 34 10.7989 10.3944 81.5900 22.5039 110.7 32.1320 0.0090 PPKPKT 34 3.2361 5.9113 80.8109 19.2221 97.9620 23.7521 0.1448 PESKT 34 -364138 1.5155 1509845 24.5655 1775790 27.7452 -.0503 TKPDKT 34 81.9915 75.2833 116.1 82.8993 132.8 103.0 -.6607 TKWDKT 34 34.8956 7081.2 113.0 7103.7 140.0 9895.3 0.2927 TKPLKT 34 -29.9420 5.1236 80.6368 32.4282 104.1 51.9103 -.0222 TKWLKT 34 -28.4786 1364.9 86.2455 1402.7 102.4 4775.5 0.0345 TKDKT 34 116.9 105.7 197.6 116.5 229.4 154.0 -.0839 TKLKT 34 -58.4206 -1.7201 126.6 27.4907 147.8 36.9273 -.0270 LHGKB 34 -0.0409 -0.00950 0.1500 17.6121 0.1900 22.9933 0.4189
PRDKB 34 -50.4485 -0.1099 1174.9 4.5053 1440.0 5.5406 -.232 PKB 34 -1019.7 0.2449 4234.5 18.9521 5425.5 25.3240 0.3360 PBNHKB 34 1.1411 0.8218 11.4605 4.6713 14.8910 6.2713 0.0352 PNPKB 34 19.8225 7146.9 126.3 7172.4 166.7 13981.6 0.0463 PESKB 34 -1008729 23.4667 3611335 53.4374 6322484 66.7599 -.0028 TKPDKB 34 25.4495 41.1886 29.1448 43.5826 33.9997 57.0196 0.0403 TKWDKB 34 16.5080 3057.4 45.8860 3079.0 56.9986 4289.0 0.2236 TKPLKB 34 11.9478 18.9563 29.5754 29.1544 35.5968 39.4644 -.0984 TKWLKB 34 13.9032 32.6817 23.1939 41.4966 28.0123 68.1497 -.4052 TKPOF 34 -2.9764 103.2 13.9176 512.7 35.3105 670.7 0.6327 TKWOF 34 -2.1869 -120.2 5.1011 411.6 7.8066 524.6 0.8956 TKPNF 34 15.2334 3297.4 53.0827 3534.2 74.9029 5762.0 -.3874 TKWNF 34 14.6234 2572.6 39.3139 2821.2 61.0632 3608.0 0.0747 KONS 34 -3168799 30.5318 9510785 62.3543 19637309 81.5429 -.0841 PENG 34 -3511398 31.3475 10970632 64.7199 20945001 83.4374 -.1192 PPOF 34 -26465.3 -109351 103151 4237895 260478 5435434 0.8331 PWOF 34 -17484.6 -1512594 37296.2 3493756 44876.9 4271743 0.9055 TPOF 34 -43949.9 -972892 119259 2831999 278769 3670502 0.8546 TBUKT 34 -1153942 -4.2180 2235788 9.6833 2740121 11.6556 -.1095 TBUKB 34 -697563 14.5761 3928960 38.2343 6363065 45.9263 0.0076 PUTKT 34 517919 10.1489 7212969 24.5741 8757262 32.7141 0.5793 PUTKB 34 14037.1 -141.6 4765224 192.5 7248301 855.1 0.2693 PPNF 34 -30284.4 -1.175E8 2368203 1.1857E8 3456919 1.4441E8 -.799 PWNF 34 -298012 -3.523E7 409743 35547880 514358 40552301 0.0949 TPNF 34 -328296 -7.121E7 2555363 71216129 3469364 86179380 -.635 TPUT 34 -4064152 -3.0980 9270342 17.2773 12125310 20.5586 0.6077 TPRT 34 -4436398 -4.0633 9867275 18.1458 13061867 22.2464 0.5462 PPANG 34 -429789 13.2091 2108537 37.5709 3489026 51.4352 -.0398 PNPG 34 -2739010 70.9765 7815743 105.6 18206026 152.5 -.0380 PKS 34 -383163 213.6 1144085 231.5 3464894 393.9 0.0004 PPEND 34 40564.5 -4204235 921854 17276945 1224199 29634361 0.3755 TAB 34 -434774 11.8365 2342225 38.7711 2891220 51.7553 -.0130 INVES 34 -460010 149.5 1115998 193.2 1651001 284.1 -.0111 NPPKT 34 -486197 -24.2865 497743 25.1965 583123 27.8425 -.0208 NPPKB 34 -764533 -38.4819 798204 42.1731 899341 44.8614 -.8742
