Tinjauan Triwulanan Ekonomi
Indonesia
Muhammad Chatib Basri
Ari Kuncoro^
1 . PENDAHULUAN
T i n j a u a n t r i w u l a n k a l i i n i , d i s a m p i n g m e m b a h a s t e n t a n g p e r k e m b a n g a n t e r a k h i r e k o n o m i I n d o n e s i a , j u g a m e n c o b a m e n g u l a s s e t a h u n k r i s i s e k o n o m i . B a g i a n p e r t a m a a k a n m e m b a h a s s e t a h u n k r i s i s e k o n o m i I n d o n e s i a d a n b a g i a n k e d u a a k a n m e m b a h a s p e r k e m b a n g a n t e r a k h i r . 1.1 S e t a h u n K r i s i s e k o n o m i S e t a h u n k r i s i s e k o n o m i b e r j a l a n . D a n s i t u a s i p u n t i d a k s e m a k i n m e m b a i k . A d a p e n a n t i a n d i s a n a : k a p a n k i t a b i s a k e l u a r d a r i k r i s i s i n i a t a u p a l i n g t i d a k t a n d a - t a n d a p e r b a i k a n . S a y a n g n y a b a h k a n c a h a y a d i u j u n g t e r o w o n g a n p u n b e l u m t e r l i h a t . M u n g k r n a d a b a i k n y a b i l a k i t a m e l i h a t a p a y a n g t e r j a d i s e l a m a s a t u t a h i m i n i . T e n g o k s a j a s i t u a s i e k o n o m i s a a t i n i : A n g k a p e r t u m b u h a n e k o n o m i t a h u n i n i d i p e r k i r a k a n m e n c a p a i - 1 5 7 o , b a h k a n p e r h i t u n g a n s a t u l e m b a g a d a r i A m e r i k a S e r i k a t m e m p e r k i r a k a n p e r t u m b u h a n e k o n o m i a k a n m e n c a p a i m i n u s 307o ( T a b e l 1 d a n T a b e l 2 ) B P S m e m p e r k i r a k a n b a h w a j u m l a h o r a n g m i s k i n d i I n d o n e s i a a k a n p a d a t a h u n 1998 a k a n h a m p i r m e n c a p a i 80 j u t a . S u a t u j u m l a h f a n t a s t i s y a n g b a h k a n l e b i h b u r u k d a r i 2 0 t a h u n y a n g l a l u k e t i k a p a d a t a h u n 1976 j u m l a h o r a n g m i s k i n t e r c a t a t s e k i t a r 54 j u t a ( T a b e l 3 ) . S i t u a s i d u n i a u s a h a p u n t a k j a u h b e r b e d a . P a d a s i s i d u n i a u s a h a , k i t a m e l i h a t b a h w a d e n g a n n i l a i t u k a r R p 5000 p e r 1 U S D o l a r , 507o d a r i p e r u s a h a a n y a n g t e r d a f t a r d i B u r s aM.Chatib Basri adalah Ph.D Candidate di Department of Economics Research School of Pacific and Asian Studies, Australian National University, Canberra. Ari Kuncoro, Stat Pengajar FEUI dan Peneliti di I.PEM-FEUl
E f e k J a k a r t a m e m i l i k i r a s i o u t a n g d o l a r t e r h a d a p t o t a l a s s e t 507o a t a u l e b i h ( S o e s a s t r o a n d B a s r i 1 9 9 8 ) . D a n p a d a k u r s R p 10.000,- r a s i o i n i a k a n m e n i n g k a t l a g i m e n j a d i h a m p i r 707o. T m g k a t p e n g a n g g u r a n j u g a m e n i n g k a t s a n g a t d r a s t i s . M a y l i n g O e y G a r d i n e r m e m p e r k i r a k a n b a h w a d e n g a n p e r t u m b u h a n 07o j u m l a h p e n g a n g g u r a k a n m e n c a p a i 9,7 j u t a d a l a m t a h i m 1998. J i k a k i t a m e n g a n g g a p b a h w a e l a s t i s i t a s p e r t u m b u h a n e k o n o m i t e r h a d a p p e n y e r a p a n t e n a g a k e r j a a d a l a h t e t a p , m a k a d e n g a n p r e d i k s i p e r t u m b u h a n e k o n o m i s e b e s a r -157o j u m l a h p e n g a n g g u r a k a n m e n i n g k a t m e n j a d i 15 j u t a m e n i n g k a t l e b i h d a r i 1007o d i b a n d i n g t a h u n s e b e i u m n y a ( T a b e l 4 ) . T a b e l 1 L a j u P e r t u m b u h a n P D B R i i l P e r i o d e Laju Pertumbuhan 1996 8 % 1997 4.7% 1 St Semester 7.34% 3rd Quarter 3.41% 4th Quarter 0% 1998* -15% s/d-20% * P e r k i r a a n S u m b e r : B P S T a b e l 2 P e r t u m b u h a n P D B M e n u r u t s e k t o r S e k t o r 1996 1997 1998*) Pertanian 3.2 0.6 5.3 Pertambangan 5.8 1.6 -6.9 Manufaktur 11.2 6.2 -3.4 Konstruksi 12.8 6.4 -30.8 Perdagangan 8.2 5.5 -12.7 PDB 8 4.7 -6.2 *) M a r e t 1997 - M a r e t 1998 S u m b e r : B P S 1 4 8
T a b e l 3 T a h u n K o t a D e s a Kota + Desa 1976 10 44.2 54.2 1987 9.7 20.3 30 1990 9.4 17.8 27.2 1993 8.7 17.2 25.9 1996 7.2 15.3 22.5 1998 * 22.6 56.8 79.4 * P e r k i r a a n S u m b e r : B P S T a b e l 4 J u m l a h P e n g a n g g u r a n T e r b u k a d a n P e n g a n g PenRanssuran terbuka 1996 (Sdkcrnas) 1997 FSPSI
Mayling Oey Gardiner 1998
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Mayling Oey Gardiner 4 % pertumbuhan 0 % pertumbuhan -20 % pertumbuhan *) Pengangguran terselubung 1996 1997 (FSPSI) 1998 (FSPSI) r u r a n T e r s e l u b u n g j u m l a h (juta) 4.4 7.1 million 5.8 million 8.6 million 8.1 million 9.7 million 20 million 30.6 million 41.8 million 43.0 million Persentase 4.9% 7.7% 6.3% 9.0% 8.4% 10.2% 3 x q % _ 45.0% 45% * ) E s t i m a s i S u m b e r : M a y l i n g O . G a r d i n e r , F S P S I a n d D e p t . T e n a g a K e r j a T i n g k a t u p a h r i i l p u n m e n g a l a m i p e n u r u n a n y a n g c u k u p t a j a m d i b e b e r a p a p r o p i n s i d i I n d o n e s i a . J a w a t e r l i h a t m e n g a l a m i p e n u r u n a n p a l i n g t a j a m . D a l a m w a k t u 6 b u l a n ( J u l i 1 9 9 7 - J a n u a r i 1 9 9 8 ) t i n g k a t u p a h r i i l d i J a w a B a r a t m e n g a l a m i p e n u r u n a n s e b e s a r 107o, J a w a T e n g a h 13,47o d a n J a w a T i m u r l l , 2 7 o ( T a b e l 5 ) . D a r i s i s i p a n g a n F A O (Food and Agriadtnre Organization) m e m p e r k i r a k a n 7 , 5 j u t a o r a n g d i 1 5 p r o p i n s i a k a n m e n g a l a m i k u r a n g p a n g a n . P r o d u k s i p a d i p e r k a p i t a r i i l m e n g a l a m i p e n u r u n a n 1 0 % ' p a d a t a h u n 1 9 9 8 d i b a n d i n g k a n t a h u n 1 9 9 7 ( J o h n s o n , 1 9 9 8 ) . 1 4 9
T a b e l 5
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P r o p i n s i Perubahan (1/97-1/98) Perubahan (7/97-1/98) jawa Barat -6.8 OO.O lawa Tengah -12.1 -13.4 Jawa Timur -13.1 -11.2 Sumatra Barat -5.2 -5.0 Sulawesi Selatan -8.0 -5.7 Nusa Tenggara Barat -8.2 -12.0
S u m b e r : E s t i m a s i W o r l d B a n k T a b e l 1 - 5 m e n u n j u k k a n p e r k e m b a n g a n s i t u a s i e k o n o m i I n d o n e s i a d a l a m s e t a h u n t e r a k h i r . D e n g a n s i t u a s i y a n g s e p e r t i i n i m . a k a urgensi e k o n o m i s e h a r u s n y a m e n j a d i h a l y a n g h a m s d i p e r h a t i k a n d e n g a n s a n g a t s e r i n s . M i m g k i n u n t u k m e l i h a t s e t a h i m k r i s i s i n i b e r j a l a n , a d a b a i k n y a b i l a k i t a m e l i h a t l a g i m a s a l a h i n i d a r i a w a l . 1 . 2 . P e n y e b a b K r i s i s H a l y a n g p a l i n g m e n c e n g a n g k a n d a r i k r i s i s i n i s e b e n a m y a b e r s u m b e r k e p a d a t i n g k a t d e p r e s i a s i R u p i a h y a n g b e g i t u d a l a m . B a y a n g k a n R u p i a h p a d a a w a l J u l i 1 9 9 7 m a s i h t e r c a t a t s e b e s a r R p 2 4 5 0 / U S $ s e d a n g k a n p a d a J u l i 1 9 9 8 s u d a h d e m i k i a n t e r p u m k n y a h i n g g a m e n c a p a i t i n g k a t s e k i t a r R p 1 2 . 0 0 0 ( G r a f i k 1 ) 1 5 0
(11 Mel - 17 A g u s t u s 1 9 9 8 )
1- CN (N
P e r d e b a t a n a w a l d i I n d o n e s i a s e n d i r i d a l a m k a i t a n j a t u h n y a n i l a i R u p i a h i n i b e r k i s a r d a r i p a n d a n g a n a p a k a h d e p r e s i a s i R u p i a h y a n g b e g i t u b e s a r t e r j a d i k a r e n a ' f u n d a m e n t a l e k o n o m i ' y a n g b u r u k a t a u a d a m a s a l a h - m a s a l a h l a i n d i l u a r ' f u n d a m e n t a l e k o n o m i ' y a n g m e n y e b a b k a n d e p r e s i a s i b e g i t u d a l a m . P a n d a n g a n y a n g m e n g a n g g a p b a h w a f u n d a m e n t a l e k o n o m i I n d o n e s i a s e b e n a m y a m e m a n g b a i k m e n g a t a k a n b a h w a k r i s i s i n i d i s e b a b k a n o l e h f a k t o r - f a k t o r l a i n d i l u a r ' f u n d a m e n t a l e k o n o m i ' . Conlagion effecl s e n d i r i t i d a k b i s a d i a n g g a p s e b a g a i s a t u -s a t i m y a f a k t o r p e n j e l a -s . L e m a h n y a m a -s a l a h k e -s e h a t a n -s e k t o r k e u a n g a n y a n g t i d a k t e r i d e n t i f i k a s i k e t i k a m e l a k u k a n p e n i l a i a n t e n t a n g m a s a l a h ' f u n d a m e n t a l e k o n o m i ' d i a n g g a p s e b a g a i f a k t o r y a n g m e n y e b a b k a n t e r j a d i n y a k r i s i s . P a n d a n g a n l a i n m e n g a t a k a n b a h w a s e b e n a m y a f u n d a m e n t a l e k o n o m i I n d o n e s i a m e m a n g b u r u k a t a u j a u h l e b i h b u m k d a r i a p a y a n g d i n y a t a k a n o l e h p e m e r i n t a h a t a u l e m b a g a l a i n s e p e r t i B a n k D u n i a . D a l a m p a n d a n g a n i n i m a s a l a h - m a s a l a h s t r u k t u r a l d i a n g g a p s e b a g a i p e n y e b a b k r i s i s . L e p a s d a r i p e r d e b a t a n i n i , k e d u a p a n d a n g a n i t u m e m i l i k i t i t i k s i n g g i m g b a h w a a d a m a s a l a h b e s a r d a l a m a s p e k i n s t i t u s i d i m a n a poor governance t e l a h m e n g a k i b a t k a n t e r j a d i n y a k r i s i s . A t a u d a l a m b a h a s a p o p u l e r y a n g a d a s a a t i n i d i a n g g a p b a h w a K K N ( K o m p s i , K o l u s i d a n N e p o t i s m e ) t e l a h m e n y e b a b k a n t e r j a d i n y a k r i s i s . T e t a p i p e r t a n y a a n m e n d a s a r y a n g h a r u s d i j a w a b s e b e n a m y a a d a l a h j i k a m e m a n g K K N a d a l a h p e n y e b a b k r i s i s , m e n g a p a k r i s i s i t u s e n d i r i b a r u t e r j a d i J u l i 1 9 9 7 ? A t a u d e n g a n k a t a l a i n b u k a n k a h K K N t e l a h h a d i r d i I n d o n e s i a s e j a k 3 0 t a h i m y a n g l a l u a t a u b a h k a n s e b e i u m n y a ? A t a u a d a p e r t a n y a a n k r i t i s l a i n , m e n g a p a n e g a r a s e p e r t i I n d i a d a n C h i n a y a n g t i n g k a t k o r u p s i n y a t i d a k k a l a h d i b a n d i n g I n d o n e s i a t i d a k m e n g a l a m i k r i s i s . J a w a b a n y a n g b i a s a n y a m u n c u l s e l a m a i n i a d a l a h b a h w a K K N m e m a n g t i d a k a k a n m e m b a w a d a m p a k l a n g s u n g t e t a p i l a m a - k e l a m a a n a k a n m e m b a w a s u a t u n e g a r a k e p a d a k r i s i s . A r g u m e n i n i m u n g k i n s a j a b e n a r , t e t a p i t e n t u s a j a a r g u m e n i n i m e m i l i k i s o a l n y a s e n d i r i . A r g u m e n y a n g - m e m i n j a m i s t i l a h e k o n o m P e t e r M c C a w l e y d a r i A u s A i d - d i s e b u t ' / lold you school of IhoughT m e n g a t a k a n b a h w a K K N p a d a s u a t u w a k t u p a s t i a k a n m e n i m b u l k a n m a s a l a h . T e n t u s a j a a r g u m e n i n i d a l a m j a n g k a p a n j a n g a k a n m e n e m u k a n k e b e n a r a n n y a s e n d i r i k a r e n a K K N p a s t i t i d a k a k a n suslained, t e t a p i i a t i d a k m e n j e l a s k a n s e c a r a k e s e l u r u h a n p e n y e b a b k r i s i s i t u s e n d i r i . I t u l a h s e b a b n y a p e r t a n y a a n p e r t a m a y a n g h a r u s d i j a w a b d a l a m k r i s i s i n i a d a l a h p e n y e b a b d a r i k r i s i s i t u s e n d i r i . S a t u h a l y a n g m e m b e d a k a n k r i s i s i n i d e n g a n k r i s i s y a n g p e m a h t e r j a d i d i 1 5 2
I n d o n e s i a ( t a h u n 1 9 8 6 m i s a l n y a ) a d a l a h d e r a j a t d a r i p e r g e r a k a n m o d a l i t u . Capilal inobilil}/ y a n g b e r b e d a m e m b u a t b e n t u k d a r i k r i s i s i n i m e n j a d i b e d a . S u l i t d i b a y a n g k a n b a h w a k r i s i s s e p e r t i i n i a k a n t e r j a d i d i I n d o n e s i a t a h u n 1 9 8 6 , k a r e n a w a l a u p u n t i n g k a t K K N - n y a s u d a h r e l a t i f c u k u p b e s a r t e t a p i m o d a l b e l u m d a p a t b e r g e r a k b e b a s . D a l a m t a h i m 1 9 8 6 m i s a l n y a k r i s i s y a n g a d a t i d a k m e n y e b a b k a n k e l u a m y a m o d a l y a n g b e g i t u b e s a r d a r i I n d o n e s i a . D e n g a n k a t a I a i n m a s a l a h n y a h a r u s a d a p e n j e l a s y a n g l e b i h m e n y a k i n k a n t e n t a n g p e n y e b a b k r i s i s i n i . S a l a h s a t u p e n j e l a s a n t e n t a n g k r i s i s i n i a d a l a h conlagion effecl d a r i k r i s i s e k o n o m i y a n g m e l a n d a T h a i l a n d . K r i s i s m o n e t e r y a n g t e r j a d i d i T h a i l a n d m e m b u a t p a r a i n v e s t o r k e m u d i a n m e l a k u k a n a n a l i s a u l a n g t e n t a n g i n v e s t a s i p o r t f o l i o m e r e k a d i b e r b a g a i n e g a r a t e r m a s u k I n d o n e s i a . D a n k e l e m a h a n d a l a m k e s e h a t a n s e k t o r k e u a n g a n d a n ovcrborrowing y a n g d i l e n g k a p i d e n g a n p e l b a g a i K K N m e m b u a t k r i s i s i n i m e n i m p a I n d o n e s i a d e n g a n s a n g a t d a h s y a t . K a r e n a i t u m u n g k i n b a i k j i k a p e m b a h a s a n m e n g e n a i k r i s i s d i k a i t k a n d e n g a n m a s a l a h p e r g e r a k a n m o d a l a t a u capilal mobilily. T i d a k d a p a t d i p u n g k i r i , p e r g e r a k a n m o d a l y a n g c e p a t high degree of capilal mobilily, y a n g d i s a t u s i s i t e l a h m e m b a w a k e m a j u a n e k o n o m i , d i s i s i l a i n j u g a m e m i l i k i r e s i k o m e m b u a t p e r e k o n o m i a n m e n j a d i vulnerable d a n m e m b e r i k a n k o n t r i b u s i k e p a d a t e r j a d i n y a k r i s i s . G r a f i k 2 m e n u n j u k k a n k e p a d a k i t a p e r p i n d a h a n m o d a l k e l u a r d a r i I n d o n e s i a y a n g t e r j a d i d a l a m k r i s i s e k o n o m i . M o d a l d a l a m b e n t u k p o r t f o l i o i n i m e m a n g m e m i l i k i d e r a j a t p e r g e r a k a n y a n g t i n g g i . G r a f i k i t u m e n u n j u k k a n b a h w a portfolio inveslmeni y a n g k e l u a r j a u h l e b i h b e s a r d i b a n d i n g k a n F D l (Foreign Direct Investment). K a r e n a i t u u n t u k m e n g a n t i s i p a s i e k o n o m i I n d o n e s i a d i m a s a d e p a n , m a k a p e r t a n y a a n y a n g h a r u s d i a j u k a n a d a l a h b a g a i m a n a p e r a n m o d a l h a r u s d i l e t a k k a n d a l a m k o n t e k s k e b i j a k a n e k o n o m i m a k r o ? S e c a r a l e b i h s p e s i f i k a d a p e r t a n y a a n y a n g h a r u s d i j a w a b : B a g a i m a n a high degree of capital mobilily d a n l e m a h n y a a s p e k i n s t i t u s i m e m b e r i k a n k o n t r i b u s i t e r h a d a p t e r j a d i n y a k r i s i s d a n b a g a i m a n a p e n g a r u h n y a t e r h a d a p k r i s i s ?
Grafik 2 Arus Modal Swasta (Netto)
2000 1000 •1000 to ^ W jooo 2 -<ooo ^ -=000 «M0 -7000 -aooo -3000 407-097 7197-9197 1 0(97-12197 119B-3^ Tahun/Periode - . - P M A -«-L>hn,» S e c a r a u m u m k r i s i s y a n g t e r j a d i d i d a h u l u i o l e h m e n i n g k a t n y a a r u s m o d a l m a s u k . H a l i n i t e r j a d i b a i k d i M e x i c o m a u p u n I n d o n e s i a . S t u d i y a n g d i l a k u k a n o l e h I M F d i t a h i m 1 9 9 8 m e n u n j u k k a n b e b e r a p a g e j a l a a w a l y a n g m e n d a h u l u i t e r j a d i n y a k r i s i s , s e p e r t i m e n i n g k a t n y a a r u s m o d a l , a p r e s i a s i r i i l d a r i n i l a i t u k a r , m e n i n g k a t n y a d o m e s t i k k r e d i t a t a u r a s i o d a r i Ml/Reserve (World Economic Oullook, M a y 1 9 9 8 ) . G r a f i k 3 m e n u n j u k k a n p e r k e m b a n g a n a r u s m o d a l s w a s t a k e I n d o n e s i a , s e d a n g -k a n G r a f i -k 4 m e n u n j u -k -k a n p e n i n g -k a t a n r a s i o Ml/Reserve.
Grafik 4 M2/Resefves (%) 1990 1991 1992 1993 199« 1995 1996 T a h u n 1 . 3 . P e m i c u K r i s i s I n d i k a t o r vulnerability i n i m e m a n g t e r l i h a t t e r j a d i d i I n d o n e s i a . D a r i p o l a -p o l a i n i k i t a b i s a m e l i h a t b a h w a k r i s i s m e m a n g d i -p i c u o l e h -p e r g e r a k a n m o d a l . S t u d i y a n g d i l a k u k a n o l e h P e t e r W a r r d a r i A u s t r a l i a n N a t i o n a l U n i v e r s i t y m e n u n j u k k a n b a h w a k r i s i s y a n g t e r j a d i d i T h a i l a n d , M a l a y s i a d a n I n d o n e s i a d i s e b a b k a n o l e h over investment boom ( W a r r , 1 9 9 8 ) . D a l a m k a s u s T h a i l a n d m i s a l n y a , W a r r m e n u n j u k k a n b a h w a p e n i n g k a t a n p e r t u m b u h a n e k o n o m i d a l a m b e b e r a p a t a h i m t e r a k h i r b u k a n d i s e b a b k a n o l e h p e n i n g k a t a n p r o d u k t i f i t a s t e n a g a k e r j a t e t a p i l e b i h d i p i c u o l e h m e n i n g k a t n y a s t o k m o d a l . Over investment i n i t e l a h m e n y e b a b k a n m e n i n g k a t n y a p e r m i n t a a n . L e d a k a n i n v e s t a s i y a n g m a s u k k e I n d o n e s i a m e n g a k i b a t k a n m e n i n g k a t n y a h a r g a non traded goods a k i b a t e k s p a n s i p e n g e l u a r a n , s e d a n g k a n d i l a i n p i h a k h a r g a traded goods r e l a t i f k o n s t a n k a r e n a d i t e n t u k a n o l e h p a s a r i n t e m a s i o n a l . A k i b a t n y a h a r g a r e l a t i f non traded t e r h a d a p traded goods m e n g a l a m i p e n i n g k a t a n . A t a u d e n g a n k a t a l a i n t e r j a d i l a h a p r e s i a s i r i i l d a r i n i l a i t u k a r . D e n g a n k a t a l a i n n i l a i R u p i a h k i t a s e b e l u m k r i s i s m e m a n g s u d a h overvalued s e h i n g g a d e p r e s i a s i a d a l a h k o n s e k w e n s i l o g i s d a r i f e n o m e n a i n i .
1 . 4 . A s p e k I n s t i t u s i
J i k a b e n a r b a h w a k r i s i s d i p i c u o l e h over iiivestuient boom d a l a m b e n t u k m o d a l p o r t f o l i o y a n g d i t a n d a i o l e h s e m a k i n vulnerable n y a e k o n o m i I n d o n e s i a , l a l u b a g a i m a n a k o n t r i b u s i K K N ( K o m p s i , K o l u s i , N e p o t i s m e ) ? K r i s i s y a n g t e r j a d i k e m u d i a n d i p e r b u r u k o l e h m a s a l a h K K N . D e r a j a t p e r g e r a k a n m o d a l y a n g t i n g g i (high degree of capital mobility) m e m u n g -k i n -k a n m o d a l b e r e a -k s i d e n g a n c e p a t t e r h a d a p l e m a h n y a m a s a l a h i n s t i t u s i , b a i k i t u k e s e h a t a n i n s t i t u s i k e u a n g a n m a u p u n b e b e r a p a v a r i a b e l l a i n y a n g m e m p e n g a r u h i i n v e s t a s i p o r t f o l i o s e p e r t i y a n g d i j e l a s k a n o l e h International Finance Corporation t a h u n 1 9 9 5 ( T a b e l 6 ) .
T a b e l 6 :
V a r i a b e l M a k r o e k o n o m i y a n g M e m p e n g a r u h i I n v e s t a s i S w a s t a
V a r i a b e l K o r e l a s i Risk Measures:
Revolution and coup
Country risk - 11 index *) +
International reserve/Imports +
Money and Credit:
Financial Depth (M2/GDP) +
Growth of Domestic Credit +
Growth and Productivity:
Growth of real per capita GDP +
Industrial productivity growth +
Trade and Balance of Payment:
Total Trade/GDP +
Growth of imports +
Growth of exports +
Human Capital:
Secondary School Enrollment Rale + S u m b e r : J a s p e r s e n , A y l w a r d d a n S u m l i n s k i , I n t e r n a t i o n a l F i n a n c e C o r p o r a t i o n (1995) *) T a b e l i n i h a n y a m e n c a t u m k a n v a r i a b e l y a n g s i g n i f i k a n p a d a t i n g k a t 107o l e v e l I I i n d e x I n s t i t u t i o n a l i n v e s t o r i n d e x , r a n g e - n y a 0-100, s e m a k i n t i n g g i b e r a r t i s e m a k i n b a i k r a n k - r x y a H a s i l p e n g u j i a n e k o n o m e t r i u n t u k p e r i o d e 1 9 9 0 a n t e r s e b u t m e n u n j u k -k a n b a h w a a r u s m o d a l m a s u -k s a n g a t t e r -k a i t d e n g a n -k e d a l a m a n s e -k t o r k e u a n g a n , t i n g k a t k e t e r b u k a a n d a l a m p e r d a g a n g a n i n t e r n a t i o n a l , m o d a l m a n u s i a d a n r e n d a h n y a countiy risk. P e r k e m b a n g a n t e o r i t e r a k h i r t e l a h m e m b e r i k a n p o r s i y a n g l e b i h b e s a r k e p a d a m a s a l a h k e p a s t i a n u s a h a d a n
r e s i k o s e b a g a i v a r i a b e l y a n g m e m p e n g a r u h i p o l a i n v e s t a s i . D e r a j a t p e r g e r a k a n m o d a l i n i l a h y a n g m e n j e l a s k a n m e n g a p a poor governance d e n g a n K K N m e n y e b a b k a n k r i s i s i n i m e n j a d i s a n g a t b u r u k , k a r e n a k e t i k a k e t i k a i n s t i t u s i s a n g a t l e m a h , m o d a l a k a n m e n g a l i r k e l u a r . A t a u d e n g a n k a t a l a i n m o d a l a k a n b e r g e r a k d a r i n e g a r a y a n g k e b i j a k a n e k o -n o m i -n y a l e m a h k e -n e g a r a y a -n g m e m i l i k i k e b i j a k a -n e k o -n o m i y a -n g b a i k . 1.5. I M F d a n E k o n o m i P o l i t i k K e b i j a k a n I M F m a s u k k e d a l a m p e t a p e r s o a l a n s e t e l a h p e m e r i n t a h I n d o n e s i a m e n g a m b i l b e b e r a p a l a n g k a h a n t i s i p a s i y a n g t i d a k m e m b e r i k a n h a s i l y a n g m e m u a s k a n . P e m e r i n t a h k e m u d i a n m e l a k u k a n p e n d e k a t a n k e I M F u n t u k m e n g a t a s i k r i s i s d i I n d o n e s i a . D a l a m p e m y a t a a n p e r t a m a n y a t e n t a n g k e i k u t s e r t a a n I M F d a l a m m e n g a t a s i k r i s i s i n i , M e n t e r i K e u a n g a n k e t i k a i t u , M a P i e M u h a m m a d , m e n y a t a k a n b a h w a b a n t u a n d a r i I M F h a n y a l a h b e r s i f a t t e k n i s . D a r i s i n i s e b e n a m y a s u d a h t e r l i h a t k e r a g u -r a g u a n P e m e -r i n t a h I n d o n e s i a w a k t u i t u . A n g g a p a n y a n g m i m c u l p a d a a w a l n y a , t a m p a k n y a b e r s u m b e r k e p a d a k e y a k i n a n b a h w a p e m e r i n t a h s e b e n a m y a t i d a k p e r l u s a m p a i m e n g g i m a k a n u a n g I M F . B a n t u a n I M F s e c a r a s i m b o l i s d i a n g g a p d a p a t m e n g e m b a l i k a n k e p e r c a y a a n t e r h a d a p e k o n o m i I n d o n e s i a . D i p i h a k l a i n a d a a n g g a p a n y a n g m e l i h a t b a h w a m a s u k n y a I M F k e d a l a m p e t a k r i s i s i n i s e b a g a i k e s e m p a t a n u n t u k m e n g h i l a n g k a n k r o n i k a p i t a l i s , k o m p s i d a n k o l u s i . K o n s u l t a s i d e n g a n I M F i n i k e m u d i a n b e m b a h m e n j a d i n e g o s i a s i d a n d i s e p a k a t i b a n t u a n p a d a t a n g g a l , 3 1 O k t o b e r 1 9 9 7 s e b e s a r 4 3 m i l i a r U S $ ( s e b e n a m y a b a n t u a n I M F d a n n e g a r a l a i n h a n y a s e b e s a r 3 8 m i l i a r U S $ k a r e n a y a n g 5 m i l i a r $ b e r a s a l d a r i d a l a m n e g e r i ) . P e r j a n j i a n d e n g a n I M F i n i h a n y a d i u m u m k a n o l e h p e m e r i n t a h I n d o n e s i a d a l a m g a r i s b e s a m y a s a j a ; t i d a k a d a i n f o r m a s i r i n c i t e r s e d i a . I n t i n y a p e r j a n j i a n p e r t a m a b e r i s i 4 p o k o k t u j u a n y a i t u : u p a y a u n t u k m e n y e h a t k a n s e k t o r k e u a n g a n , k e b i j a k a n f i s k a l , k e b i j a k a n m o n e t e r t e r m a s u k n i l a i t u k a r d a n k e b i j a k s a n a a n p e n y e s u a i a n s t r u k t u r a l . D a l a m k e b i j a k a n s t r u k t u r a l d i l a k u k a n p e n u r u n a n t a r i f d a n j u g a d e r e g u l a s i u n t u k t e p u n g t e r i g u , k a c a n g k e d e l a i d a n b a w a n g p u t i h . D i s e k t o r p e r b a n k a n p a d a a w a l N o v e m b e r p e m e r i n t a h m e l a k u k a n l i k u i d a s i 1 6 b a n k . P a k e t I M F p e r t a m a i n i b u k a n b e r l a l u t a n p a k r i t i k . E k o n o m J e f f r e y S a c h s m e l o n t a r k a n k r i t i k n y a t e n t a n g k e b i j a k a n u a n g k e t a t d a n m e n g a p a I M F t i d a k l e b i h m e m f o k u s k a n d i r i k e p a d a k e b i j a k a n j a n g k a p e n d e k 1 5 7
s e p e r t i p e r b a i k a n s e k t o r f i n a n s i a l k e t i m b a n g t e r p u s a t k e p a d a k e b i j a k a n j a n g k a p a n j a n g s e p e r t i k e b i j a k a n p e n y e s u a i a n s t r u k t u r a l ( S a c h s , 1 9 9 7 ) . D a r i p i h a k I n d o n e s i a s e n d i r i t e r l i h a t b a h w a p e m e r i n t a h a n S o e h a r t o e n g g a n m e l a k s a n a k a n p a k e t i n i . T e r b u k t i d e n g a n a p a y a n g t e r j a d i d e n g a n B a n k A n d r o m e d a . B e b e r a p a m i n g g u s e t e l a h d i t u t u p . B a n k A n d r o m e d a m u n c u l l a g i , k i n i d e n g a n n a m a B a n k A l f a . D i s i n i m u l a i t e r l i h a t g e j a l a t i d a k s e r i u s n y a p e m e r i n t a h a n S o e h a r t o d a l a m m e n j a l a n k a n p r o g r a m p e r b a i k a n e k o n o m i . D a r i k a c a m a t a p a s a r t e r l i h a t b a h w a p e m e r i n t a h t i d a k s e r i u s d a n t i d a k k o n s i s t e n d e n g a n u p a y a p e r b a i k a n e k o n o m i n y a . B e g i t u j u g a d e n g a n d e r e g u l a s i u n t u k k e d e l a i , b a w a n g p u t i h . W a l a u p u n s u d a h t e r t u l i s j e l a s , t e t a p i t i d a k b a n y a k p i h a k y a n g m e n g e t a h u i i m p l e m e n t a s i n y a . S i t u a s i s e m a k i n m e m b u r u k . P a d a s a a t p a k e t I M F p e r t a m a d i j a l a n k a n , n i l a i t u k a r R u p i a h m a s i h b e r k i s a r R p 3 0 0 0 - R p 4 0 0 0 p e r U S $ . P a d a s a a t i t u s e b e n a m y a k e s e m p a t a n i m t u k m e m p e r b a i k i e k o n o m i m a s i h r e l a t i f b e s a r k a r e n a n i l a i t u k a r R u p i a h m a s i h b e r a d a d a l a m a r e a y a n g feasible. T e t a p i s i k a p p e m e r i n t a h y a n g t i d a k j e l a s d i t a m b a h l a g i d e n g a n b e r i t a s a k i t n y a S o e h a r t o , t e l a h m e m b u a t n i l a i t u k a r t e r p u r u k l e b i h j a u h . A k h i m y a p a d a t a n g g a l , 1 5 J a n u a r i 1 9 9 8 d i t a n d a - t a n g a n i letter of intent y a n g k e d u a . I s i n y a j a u h l e b i h s t r u k t u r a l k e t i m b a n g p e r j a n j i a n y a n g p e r t a m a , d i m a n a d a l a m k e s e p a k a t a n i n i d i s e t u j u i u n t u k m e n g h e n t i k a n f a s i l i t a s p e m e r i n t a h b a g i M o b n a s , I P T N d a n j u g a m e n c a b u t m o n o p o l i B P P C . P a s a r m e n a n g g a p i p e r s e t u j u a n i n i d e n g a n s k e p t i s . B a h k a n k e t i k a k e m u d i a n d i u m u m k a n b a h w a B J H a b i b i e a k a n m e n j a d i c a l o n W a k i l P r e s i d e n d a r i G o l k a r , n i l a i t u k a r R u p i a h s e m p a t m e n e m b u s R p 1 7 . 0 0 0 . T e n t u j a t u h n y a n i l a i t u k a r i n i b u k a n h a n y a d i s e b a b k a n o l e h b e r i t a p o l i t i k i t u , t e t a p i j u g a o l e h s i k a p p e m e r i n t a h y a n g t e r l i h a t e n g g a n d a l a m m e l a k s a n a k a n p a k e t I M F . D a n s i k a p s k e p t i s p a s a r m e m a n g k e m u d i a n t e r b u k t i , k e t i k a p e m e r i n t a h m e n g e l u a r k a n b e r b a g a i p e m y a t a a n b a h w a m o n o p o l i B U L O G a k a n d i t e r u s k a n , b e g i t u j u g a d e n g a n M o b n a s d a n I P T N . B a h k a n k e m u d i a n S o e h a r t o m e n y a t a k a n b a h w a p a k e t I M F b e r t e n t a n g a n d e n g a n k o n s t i t u s i I n d o n e s i a . D a r i s i n i t e r l i h a t b a g a i m a n a e n g g a n n y a p e m e r i n t a h m e n j a l a n k a n p a k e t I M F t e r s e b u t . D a r i s i s i a n a l i s a e k o n o m i p o l i t i k k i t a b i s a m e l i h a t b a h w a p e l b a g a i a r g u m e n d a n j u s t i f i k a s i y a n g d i b e r i k a n s e b e n a m y a h a n y a l a h u p a y a u n t u k m e m p e r t a h a n k a n k r o n i k a p i t a l i s d a n k e l o m p o k k e p e n t i n g a n n y a . 1 5 8
A t a u d e n g a n k a t a l a i n d a r i s i s i e k o n o m i p o l i t i k k i t a b i s a m e l i h a t b a h w a p r o s e s k e b i j a k a n a d a l a h p r o s e s t a w a r m e n a w a r a n t a r a k e l o m p o k k e p e n t i n g a n . A r g u m e n P r e s i d e n - k e t i k a i t u - S o e h a r t o b a h w a p a k e t I M F b e r t e n t a n g a n d e n g a n k o n s t i t u s i d a n m e n g a r a h k e p a d a l i b e r a l i s m e m i s a l n y a , s e b e n a m y a h a n y a s u a t u u p a y a m e n c a r i j u s t i f i k a s i u n t u k m e m p e r t a h a n k a n k e l a n g g e n g a n e k o n o m i r e n t e (rent seeking activities).
B i l a k i t a m e l i h a t s e j a r a h e k o n o m i I n d o n e s i a , a g a k n y a k i t a a k a n s u l i t i m t u k m e n g a m b i l s a t u k e s i m p u l a n t u n g g a l t e n t a n g p a h a m a t a u ' i d e o l o g i ' d a r i k e b i j a k a n e k o n o m i I n d o n e s i a . O b s e r v a s i y a n g a g a k t e l i t i t e r h a d a p p e r k e m b a n g a n e k o n o m i I n d o n e s i a m e n u n j u k k a n b a h w a e k o n o m i I n d o n e s i a d a l a m e r a 7 0 - a n s u l i t d i k a t a k a n s e b a g a i e k o n o m i y a n g b e r o r i e n t a s i k e p a d a p a s a r . S t m k t u r e k s p o r I n d o n e s i a m i s a l n y a , m e n u n j u k k a n p o l a i n d u s t r i a l i a s a s i y a n g s u l i t d i k a t a k a n m e n g i k u t i k o n s e p k e i m g g u l a n k o m p a r a t i f y a n g n o t a b e n e m e m p a k a n p r o d u k m u m i p e m i k i r a n p a s a r b e b a s . P a n g s a e k s p o r p r o d u k y a n g b e r s i f a t p a d a t m o d a l t e m y a t a l e b i h b e s a r d i b a n d i n g k a n p r o d u k y a n g b e r s i f a t p a d a t t e n a g a k e r j a p a d a e r a i t u . S t r u k t u r p r o t e k s i j u g a r e l a t i f t i n g g i p a d a w a k t u i t u . B a m s e j a k t a h u n 1 9 8 5 t e r j a d i p e r u b a h a n s t r u k t u r , d i m a n a p a n g s a e k s p o r p r o d u k y a n g b e r s i f a t p a d a t t e n a g a k e r j a m u l a i m e n j a d i l e b i h d o m i n a n k e t i m b a n g y a n g p a d a t m o d a l s e j a l a n d e n g a n d i l a k u k a n n y a p e l b a g a i d e r e g u l a s i e k o n o m i . P o l a i n i p u n s e b e t u l n y a t i d a k b e r t a h a n l a m a , k a r e n a p r a k t i s s e t e l a h 1 9 9 0 - a n a d a g e j a l a y a n g b e r b a l i k d a l a m p i l i h a n k e b i j a k a n s e j a l a n d e n g a n m e n g u a t n y a k r o n i k a p i t a l i s d a n j u g a m e n g u a t n y a i n d u s t r i - i n d u s t r i s t r a t e g i s . D e n g a n k a t a l a i n a s p e k p e r d e b a t a n i d e o l o g i s d a l a m k e b i j a k a n e k o n o m i d i I n d o n e s i a b e l u m l a h m e n c a p a i d a t a r a n y a n g s e d e m i k i a n m a t a n g n y a . Y a n g t e r j a d i s e b e n a m y a h a n y a l a h s a t u p r o s e s k e p u t u s a n e k o n o m i s r a s i o n a l t e n t a n g p i l i h a n k e b i j a k a n y a n g p a l i n g m e n g u n t u n g k a n b a g i l e g i t i m a s i p e m e r i n t a h O r d e B a m . M e n g u n t u n g k a n d i s i n i h a m s d i t e r j e m a h k a n d a l a m a r t i m e m i l i k i b i a y a e k o n o m i d a n p o l i t i k y a n g p a l i n g m u r a h . D a l a m e r a 7 0 - a n k e t i k a d a n a m i n y a k t e r s e d i a d a n p e r a n k e l o m p o k n a s i o n a l i s m e n g u a t , p i l i h a n k e b i j a k a n y a n g n o n p a s a r d a n p r o t e k s i o n i s - a l a e k o n o m i k o m a n d o d i n e g a r a s o s i a l i s - m e m i l i k i h a r g a y a n g r e l a t i f m u r a h d i b a n d i n g k a n k e b i j a k a n p r o p a s a r . H a l i n i d i s e b a b k a n k a r e n a u n t u k m e m p e r o l e h d u k u n g a n p o l i t i k , p e m e r i n t a h a k a n m e n g a k o m o d a s i t e k a n a n k e l o m p o k k e p e n t i n g a n y a n g k u a t p a d a w a k t u i t u . S e d a n g k a n d a l a m p e r t e n g a h a n t a h u n 1 9 8 0 - a n k e t i k a h a r g a m i n y a k j a t u h k e t i n g k a t 1 5 9
d i b a w a h $ 1 0 p e r b a r r e l , m a k a p i l i h a n k e b i j a k a n y a n g b e r s i f a t n o n p a s a r m e n j a d i r e l a t i f l e b i h m a h a l k e t i m b a n g k e b i j a k a n y a n g p r o p a s a r - - y a n g b e r k o n o t a s i l i b e r a l — k a r e n a m e n g u a t n y a p e r a n t e k n o k r a t d a n a d a n y a p e n g a r u h e k s t e m a l s e p e r t i j a t u h n y a h a r g a m i n y a k y a n g m e n g a k i b a t k a n t e r b a t a s n y a d a n a p e m e r i n t a h . H a l y a n g s a m a j u g a t e r j a d i d a l a m b e b e r a p a b u l a n t e r a k h i r i n i . T e k a n a n I M F d a n j u g a t i m t u t a n d e r e g u l a s i m e m b u a t p i l i h a n k e b i j a k a n p a s a r m e n j a d i r e l a t i f l e b i h m u r a h , s e h i n g g a k i t a d a p a t m e l i h a t b a g a i m a n a r e f o r m a s i I M F b u l a n O k t o b e r d a n letter of intent d i t a n d a - t a n g a n i . T e t a p i k e t i k a k e m u d i a n h a r g a y a n g h a r u s d i b a y a r o l e h r e f o r m a s i m e n j a d i d e m i k i a n m a h a l n y a k a r e n a m e n y e n t u h b e r b a g a i e k o n o m i r e n t e d a r i p a r a k r o n i k a p i t a l i s d a n t e r s u d u t n y a k e p e n t i n g a n e k o n o m i k e l o m p o k y a n g m e n g i d e n t i f i k a s i k a n d i r i n y a s e b a g a i ' n a s i o n a l i s ' , m a k a k i t a k e m u d i a n m e n d e n g a r b e r b a g a i p e m y a t a a n y a n g m e n g e j u t k a n m e n g e n a i t i d a k c o c o k n y a p a k e t I M F d e n g a n j i w a e k o n o m i I n d o n e s i a . A r g u m e n y a n g d i a j u k a n u m u m n y a m e n g a t a k a n b a h w a h a l i n i a k a n m e m b a w a I n d o n e s i a k e p a d a 'liberalisme'. A n a l i s i s d i a t a s a g a k n y a m e m b a w a k i t a k e p a d a g a m b a r a n b a h w a s u H t s e k a H m e n d a p a t k a n k e s i m p u l a n t u n g g a l t e n t a n g a s p e k i d e o l o g i s d a r i k e b i j a k a n e k o n o m i I n d o n e s i a . Y a n g t e r j a d i t i d a k l e b i h s e k e d a r t a r i k m e n a r i k k e l o m p o k k e p e n t i n g a n d a l a m p i l i h a n k e b i j a k a n . J i k a p e r a n k e l o m p o k i n t e r v e n s i o n i s m e n g u a t m a k a h a r g a k e b i j a k a n y a n g ' p r o p a s a r ' m e n j a d i m a h a l d a n p i l i h a n k e b i j a k a n a k a n m e n u j u k e p a d a i n t e r v e n s i p e m e r i n t a h . S e d a n g k a n d a l a m e r a k r i s i s k e t i k a p e r a n k e l o m p o k ' p r o p a s a r ' m e n g u a t , m a k a h a r g a i n t e r v e n s i p e m e r i n t a h m e n j a d i m a h a l , d a n p d i h a n k e b i j a k a n b e r a l i h k e p a d a k e b i j a k a n y a n g p r o p a s a r . D i s i n i k i t a t i d a k m e l i h a t b a g a i m a n a b i n g k a i i d e o l o g i k e m u d i a n b e r p e r a n d a l a m genre y a n g f U o s o f i s d a n d a l a m . Y a n g t e r j a d i h a n y a l a h b a g a i m a n a u p a y a m e m p e r t a h a n k a n l e g i t i m a s i r e j i m d e n g a n p e l b a g a i a l a s a n i d e o l o g i s . T a w a r - m e n a w a r k e b i j a k a n y a n g t e r j a d i s e p e r t i i n i a k h i m y a s e m a k i n m e n g h a n c u r k a n k e p e r c a y a a n o r a n g t e r h a d a p k o n s i s t e n s i p e m e r i n t a h . S i t u a s i s e p e r t i i n i b e r t a h a n t e r u s s e h i n g g a l a h i r l a h k e m u d i a n p a k e t I M F k e t i g a . P a k e t i n i d i l i m c u r k a n d a l a m k o n d i s i n d a i t u k a r R u p i a h s e k i t a r R p 8 0 0 0 / U S $. S i t u a s i p e m b a h a n p o l i t i k y a n g t e r j a d i d e n g a n b e r h e n t i n y a S o e h a r t o p a d a 2 1 M e i 1 9 9 8 j u g a s e c a r a s i g n i f k a n m e m p e n g a r u h i i m p l e m e n t a s i p a k e t I M F , s e h i n g g a p a d a b u l a n J u n i 1 9 9 8 k e m b a l i l a g i d i k e l u a r k a n p a k e t I M F y a n g k e e m p a t . S a y a n g n y a s i t u a s i s u d a h s e d e m i k i a n b u m k n y a d a n n i l a i t u k a r R u p i a h s u d a h b e r a d a d i a t a s R p 1 0 . 0 0 0 , - p a d a h a l s e p e r t i y a n g d i s e b u t 1 6 0
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t e r d a f t a r d i B u r s a E f e k J a k a r t a ( B E J ) a k a n m e m i l i k i r a s i o u t a n g D o l a r t e r h a d a p t o t a l h a r t a s e b e s a r 507o a t a u l e b i h .
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2 . 1 . P e r e k o n o m i a n D u n i a D a r i g a m b a r a n d i a t a s t e n t a n g p e n y e b a b k r i s i s k i t a m a s u k k e p e r k e m -b a n g a n s i t u a s i t e r a k h i r . P e r k e m -b a n g a n e k o n o m i d u n i a t a m p a k n y a j u g a m e n u n j u k k a n g e j a l a y a n g t i d a k m e n g g e m b i r a k a n . G e j a l a - g e j a l a r e s e s i e k o n o m i d a l a m s k a l a g l o b a l m u l a i t e r l i h a t . | J a t u h n y a n i l a i R u b e l R u s i a y a n g d i i k u t i o l e h t e r g u n c a n g n y a p a s a r u a n g d u n i a t a m p a k n y a m e m b e r i k a n i n d i k a s i b a h w a p e r e k o n o m i a n g l o b a l j u g a m u l a i m e m a s u k i t a h a p y a n g m e n c e m a s k a n . S e p e r t i t e l a h d i s i n g u n g s e b e i u m n y a , b a h w a p e r g e r a k a n m o d a l y a n g b e g i t u t i n g g i t e n t u j u g a a k a n b e r p e n g a r u h d a l a m m e m p e r c e p a t k r i s i s e k o n o m i d u n i a . K a r e n a i t u l a h m u n g k i n s u d a h s a a t n y a u n t u k d i p i k i r k a n p e r l u n y a a t u r a n m a i n d a l a m p e r g e r a k a n m o d a l j a n g k a p e n d e k d a l a m s k a l a g l o b a l s e p e r t i G - 1 5 . P e r t u m b u h a n e k o n o m i d u n i a d i p e r k i r a k a n j u g a a k a n m e n g a l a m i p e r l a m b a t a n . H a l i n i t e n t u s a j a a k a n m e p e n g a r u h i e k o n o m i I n d o n e s i a d a n m e m p e r s u l i t e k o n o m i I n d o n e s i a d a l a m p r o s e s p e m u l i h a n e k o n o m i n y a a k i b a t spill over d a r i r e s e s i g l o b a l . B u a t I n d o n e s i a d a m p a k n y a t e n t u j u g a a k a n t e r a s a m e l a l u i repercusion effect d a r i e k s p o r . 2.2. P e r k e m b a n g a n E k s p o r M a n u f a k t u r S a m p a i a k h i r t r i w u l a n I V 1 9 9 7 s e p i n t a s l a l u m e m a n g k i n e r j a e k s p o r t i d a k m e n g a l a m i p e r u b a h a n d r a s t i s , y a n g t e r j a d i a d a l a h p e n u r u n a n l a j u p e r t u m b u h a n e k s p o r d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n w a k t u - w a k t u s e b e i u m n y a . L a j u p e r t u m b u h a n e k s p o r m a n u f a k t u r n o n m i g a s a n t a r a 1 9 9 6 d a n 1 9 9 7 a d a l a h 1 3 , 4 p e r s e n , s e m e n t a r a j i k a e k s p o r t r i w u l a n I V 1 9 9 6 d i b a n d i n g -k a n d e n g a n t r i w u l a n I V 1 9 9 7 l a j u p e r t u m b u h a n e -k s p o r a d a l a h 1 2 , 7 p e r s e n ( T a b e l 7 ) . G a m b a r a n t e r s e b u t b e r u b a h j i k a k i t a m e l i h a t g a m b a r a n e k s p o r u n t u k b e b e r a p a k o m o d i t i t e r p i l i h . K o m o d i t i - k o m o d i t i y a n g s e l a m a i n i m e n j a d i p r i m a d o n a e k s p o r s e p e r t i k a y u l a p i s , t e k s t i l , p a k a i a n j a d i m e n g a l a m i p e r t u m b u h a n n e g a t i f . U n t u k k o m o d i t i - k o m o d i t i y a n g l a i n s e b a g i a n b e s a r j u g a m e n g a l a m i p e r t u m b u h a n n e g a t i f . S e k a l i l a g i 1 6 1d e p r e s i a s i R u p i a h t i d a k b a n y a k m e m b a n t u p e n i n g k a t a n e k s p o r . S e n t i m e n n e g a t i f d a r i i m p o r t i r l u a r n e g e r i , k e t i d a k p a s t i a n b e r u s a h a a k i b a t k o n d i s i k e a m a n a n y a n g r a w a n k e r u s u h a n d a n k e t e r g a n t u n g a n i m p o r y a n g t i n g g i m e m b u a t i n d u s t r i m a n u f a k t u r t i d a k d a p a t m e n o l o n g n e r a c a p e m b a y a r a n . T a b e l 7 P e r t u m b u h a n N i l a i E k s p o r I n d u s t r i Produk 1996-97 96:1-97:1 96:2-97:2 96:3-97:3 96:4-97:4 Kayu Olahan Lapis -5.14 13.53 1.62 -6.95 -24.18 Gergajian -19.73 9.08 2.29 -35.91 -46.07 Lainnya -14.17 0.04 8.50 -21.16 -40.21 Barang dari Logam
Timah -0.54 2.32 15.03 -21.48 10.96 Alumunium -4.96 -10.70 6.43 -15.24 -1.25 Nikel -20.80 -59.10 -27.04 30.65 0.33 Pakaian ladi -19.45 12.06 2.07 -28.99 -54.54 Tekstil lainnya -19.69 10.57 19.37 -42.18 -60.15 Karel Glahan -13.35 -8.08 -19.14 -20.70 -5.07 Makanan lernak -28.31 -1 1.52 -31.69 -30.28 -36.91 Minyak Alsiri 9.32 -/..5J 39.90 in nn .).:>2 nU.SU ri\
Keiapa Sawil 75.17 -8.59 69.53 139.30 118.40 Asam Berlemak -57.27 -82.26 -77.96 78.53 48.55 Alal-alat lislrik 67.96 46.67 25.15 -17.05 -36.64 Makanan Olahan -13.28 25.72 1.47 -24.07 -43.16 Semen 110.11 -81.52 269.77 170.45 101 1.11 Barang Anyaman -32.76 -16.00 -12.57 -40.60 -69.28 Bahan Kimia 30.60 27.75 84.67 1 1.90 11.87 Pupuk 15.06 -4.71 165.27 -4.20 -17.71 Kulil dan Barang dr Kulil 11 1.45 -23.44 20.89 -30.00 544.83 Kerlas dan Barang Kerlas -1.75 19.66 30.39 -20.08 -26.84 Lainnya 41.67 12.50 1.85 64.94 83.36 Total 13.40 8. .59 6.42 13.36 12.70 Sumber: BPS, Indikator Ekonomi
Y a n g c u k u p m e n a r i k d a r i d a t a e k s p o r p r o d u k - p r o d u k m a n u f a k t u r a d a l a h p e n i n g k a t a n y a n g l u a r b i a s a d a r i e k s p o r m i n y a k k e i a p a s a w i t , s e m e n d a n b a r a n g - b a r a n g k u l i t . K e i a p a s a w i t j e l a s m e r u p a k a n k o m o d i t i
y a n g m c n g u n t u n g k a n d i s a a t s e p e r t i i n i . D e n g a n k a n d u n g a n i m p o r y a n g s a n g a t r e n d a h d a n h a r g a y a n g b a i k d i p a s a r i n t e m a s i o n a l m a k a t i d a k m e n g h e r a n k a n p a s a r i n t e m a s i o n a l a k a n l e b i h m e n a r i k d a r i p a d a p a s a r d a l a m n e g e r i . Y a n g m e n j a d i m a s a l a h d i s i n i a d a l a h m i n y a k k e i a p a s a w i t j u g a d i b u t u h k a n o l e h k o n s u m e n d o m e s t i k b a h k a n d i k a t e g o r i k a n d a l a m b a r a n g - b a r a n g k e b u t u h a n p o k o k . I U n t u k m e n j a m i n p e n y e d i a a n d a l a m n e g e r i m a k a p e m e r i n t a h k e r a p k a l i m e l a k u k a n l a r a n g a n e k s p o r , k o n t r o l h a r g a , p e n g a t u r a n d i s t r i b u s i m a u p u n p a j a k e k s p o r . K e b i j a k a n k e b i j a k a n s e p e r t i t e l a h t e r b u k t i k o n t r a -p r o d u k t i f k a r e n a t e t a -p t i d a k d a -p a t m e n u m n k a n h a r g a d a l a m n e g e r i d a n b a h k a n h a n y a a k a n m e n i m b u l k a n p a s a r g e l a p . A d a d u a a l a s a n m e n g a p a p e m e r i n t a h t i d a k p e r l u m e l a k u k a n i n t e r v e n s i y a n g b e r l e b i h a n . P e r t a m a , d a l a m s i t u a s i d i m a n a p e r e k o n o m i a n s a n g a t m e m b u t u h k a n d e v i s a u n t u k m e n s t a b i l k a n n i l a i t u k a r R u p i a h i n d u s t r i m i n y a k k e i a p a s a w i t m e r u p a k a n s a l a h s a t u k o m o d i t i h a r a p a n d i m a s a k i n i d a n d i m a s a d a t a n g . K e d u a , m i n y a k g o r e n g y a n g b e r b a h a n b a k u k e i a p a s a w i t b u k a n l a h b a r a n g - b a r a n g p o k o k s e p e r t i b e r a s . M i n y a k g o r e n g k e i a p a s a w i t m e m p u n y a i b a n y a k b a r a n g s u b s i t u s i , b a h k a n a d a c a r a m e m a s a k y a n g t i d a k m e n g g u n a k a n m i n y a k g o r e n g . S e b a i k n y a p e m e r i n t a h m u l a i m e m b e r i k a n p e r a n a n m e k a n i s m e p a s a r l e b i h b e s a r p a d a k o m o d i t i m i n y a k k e i a p a . s a w i t i n i . H a r g a r e a l i s t i s y a n g t e r j a d i d i p a s a r s e k a l i g u s a k a n m e n g u b a h p o l a k o n s u m s i m a s y a r a k a t d a r i k e t e r g a n t u n g a n t e r h a d a p m i n y a k g o r e n g k e i a p a s a w i t k e a r a h c a r a - c a r a m e m a s a k t a n p a m i n y a k k e i a p a s a w i t . K e n a i k a n e k s p o r s a n g a t t i n g g i y a n g t e r j a d i u n t u k k o m o d i t i s e m e n l e b i h m e n c e r m i n k a n l e s u n y a p a s a r d a l a m n e g e r i . D e n g a n s e k t o r k o n s t r u k s i y a n g d i p r o y e k s i k a n a k a n m e n g a l a m i k o n t r a k s i s e b e s a r 2 4 p e r s e n d a l a m t a h u n 1 9 9 8 i n i , m a k a p a s a r e k s p o r m e r u p a k a n s a l a h s a t u c a r a u n t u k m e m p e r t a h a n k a n e k s i s t e n s i i n d u s t r i i n i . I n d u s t r i i n i p a d a d a s a r n y a b e r o r i e n t a s i d o m e s t i k t e t a p i d i m a s a l a l u t i d a k j a r a n g d i l a k u k a n k e g i a t a n e k s p o r u n t u k m e m a n f a a t k a n k a p a s i t a s t e r p a s a n g . B a g i i n d u s t r i i n i marginal cost pricing u n t u k p a s a r e k s p o r m e r u p a k a n s u a t u h a l y a n g b i a s a a s a l k a n b i a y a v a r i a b e l m a s i h d a p a t t e r t u t u p .
2 . 3 . P e r k e m b a n g a n P e r e k o n o m i a n D o m e s t i k
S a m p a i d e n g a n k u a r t a l p e r t a m a t a h u n 1 9 9 8 p e r e k o n o m i a n m e n g a l a m i k o n t r a k s i . s e b e s a r 6 , 2 " r . ( T a b e l 2 ) . S e k t o r p e r t a n i a n t u m b u h d e n g a n c u k u p
t i n g g i y a i t u s e b e s a r 5,3%. A g a k n y a p e r t u m b u h a n y a n g t i n g g i i n i d i s e b a b k a n o l e h r e n d a h n y a p e r t u m b u h a n d i t a h u n 1997 a k i b a t m u s i m k e r i n g . S e h i n g g a k e m b a l i n y a s e k t o r p e r t a n i a n k e p o l a n o r m a l p a d a p e r i o d e M a r e t 1 9 9 7 - 9 8 d a r i p e r t u m b u h a n y a n g r e n d a h , m e n g a k i b a t k a n p e s a t n y a p e r t u m b u h a n s e k t o r p e r t a n i a n . S e k t o r p e r t a m b a n g a n m e n g a l a m i k o n t r a k s i s e b e s a r 6,9"/n d a n s e k t o r i n d u s t r i s e b e s a r - 3 , 4 7 o . P u k u l a n y a n g p a l i n g b e s a r m u n c u l p a d a s e k t o r k o n s t r u k s i , d i m a n a d a l a m p e r i o d e M a r e t 1997 - M a r e t 1998 p e r t u m b u h a n m e n g a l a m i k o n t r a k s i s e b e s a r 30,87o. B e g i t u j u g a d e n g a n s e k t o r p e r d a g a n g a n y a n g m e n g a l a m i k o n t r a k s i s e b e s a r 12,77o. D a l a m p e r i o d e k e d e p a n t a m p a k n y a p e r t u m b u h a n y a n g r e n d a h m a s i h b e r s a m a k i t a . S a t u h a l y a n g h a r u s d i p e r h a t i k a n a d a l a h b a h w a d a m p a k d a r i n i l a i t u k a r t e r h a d a p s e k t o r r i i l m e m i l i k i t e n g g a n g w a k t u . A p a y a n g t e r j a d i p a d a s e k t o r r i i l d i b u l a n J u l i m i s a l n y a , d i p e n g a r u h i o l e h n i l a i t u k a r b e b e r a p a b u l a n s e b e i u m n y a . S e h i n g g a n i l a i t u k a r R u p i a h p a d a b u l a n M e i - A g u s t u s 1998 y a n g t e r p u r u k l e b i h r e n d a h d i b a n d i n g k a n b u l a n - b u l a n s e b e i u m n y a b a r u a k a n m e m b a w a a k i b a t p a d a s e k t o r r i i l d a l a m b u l a n - b u l a n m e n d a t a n g . O l e h k a r e n a i t u p e r t u m b u h a n e k o n o m i y a n g n e g a t i f m e m a n g a k a n b e r s a m a k i t a s e p a n j a n g t a h u n i n i d a n b a h k a n j u g a d a l a m t a h u n 1999. 2 . 4 . P e r k e m b a n g a n N i l a i T u k a r , H a r g a , M o n e t e r d a n A n g g a r a n a. P e r k e m b a n g a n N i l a i T u k a r N i l a i t u k a r R u p i a h m a s i h b e r f l u k t u a s i p a d a t i n g k a t y a n g r e l a t i f t i n g g i . P a d a p e r t e n g a h a n b u l a n M e i 1998. N i l a i t u k a r b a n y a k s e k a l i d i p e n g a r u h i o l e h f a k t o r - f a k t o r p o l i t i k . P e n e m b a k a n a t a s m a h a s i s w a T r i s a k t i d a n k e r u s u h a n 13-15 M e i m e m b u a t R u p i a h m e l e m a h s e h i n g g a m e n e m b u s a n g k a R p 1 0 . 0 0 0 . N i l a i R u p i a h t e r u s m e l e m a h s e j a k K a b i n e t H a b i b i e d i u m u m k a n d a n m e n c a p a i p u n c a k n y a k e t i k a d i l a k u k a n p e n g u m u m a n r e v i s i a s u m s i A P B N . B e b e r a p a h a r i s e t e l a h p e n g u m u m a n i t u n i l a i R u p i a h s e m p a t a n j l o k d i a t a s R p 16.000 ( l i h a t G r a f i k 1 ) . A g a k n y a b e r b a g a i f a k t o r k e t i d a k p a s t i a n p o l i t i k m e m b e r i k a n k o n t r i b u s i y a n g b e s a r t e r h a d a p m e l e m a h n y a n i l a i t u k a r R u p i a h . P a d a m i n g g u t e r a k h i r J u l i n i l a i R u p i a h s e c a r a p e r l a h a n m e m m j u k k a n t a n d a m e n g u a t , s a m p a i p a d a t a n g g a l 19 A g u s t u s m e n y e n t u h n i l a i R p 11.700. P e n g u a t a n i n i t a m p a k n y a j u g a d i p e n g a r u h i o l e h k e b i j a k a n B a n k I n d o n e s i a u n t u k m e n y e r a p l i k u i d i t a s R u p i a h , y a n g t e r c e r m i n j u g a d e n g a n s e d i k i t m e n u r u n n y a j u m l a h c a d a n g a n d e v i s a u n t u k m e n y e r a p l i k u i d i t a s R u p i a h . 1 6 4
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n f 1 a s i A n g k a i n f l a s i y a n g t i n g g i a g a k n y a t e t a p b e r s a m a k i t a . I n f l a s i J a n u a r i -A g u t u s 1998, i m t u k h a r g a u m u m t e r c a t a t s e b e s a r 6 9 % . U n t u k m a k a n a n i n f l a s i J a n u a r i - A g u s t u s 1 9 9 8 s u d a h m e n c a p a i 99,47o. I n f l a s i u n t u k m a k a n a n s e j a k J u n i 1998 m e m a n g m e n u n j u k k a n g e j a l a k e n a i k a n . T a m p a k b a h w a t e r g a n g g u n y a j a l u r d i s t r i b u s i s e l a m a p e r i o d e p e r g a n t i a n d a r i S o e h a r t o k e p a d a H a b i b i e b e r p e n g a r u h k e p a d a h a r g a - h a r g a m a k a n a n , y a n g t e r l i h a t d e n g a n m e l o n j a k n y a i n f l a s i m a k a n a n d a r i 3.97o m e n j a d i 77o d a r i b u l a n M e i k e J u n i . A n g k a i n i m e l o n j a k l a g i d i b u l a n J u l i m e n j a d i 1 2 % d a n d i b u l a n A g u s t u s m e n j a d i 97o ( T a b e l 8 d a n T a b e l 9 ) . S i t u a s i i n i m e m a n g m e n u n j u k k a n b a h w a d a l a m t i g a b u l a n p e m e r i n t a h a n H a b i b i e , h a r g a - h a r g a m a k a n a n m e m a n g m e n g a l a m i k e n a i k a n y a n g t a j a m . T a m p a k n y a p e n y e b a b k e n a i k a n h a r g a m a k a n a n i n i m e r u p a k a n a k i b a t d a r i a d a n y a imported inflation, d i m a n a n i l a i t u k a r R u p i a h y a n g s e m a k i n t e r p u r u k t e l a h m e m b a w a a k i b a t s e m a k i n m a h a l n y a h a r g a m a k a n a n y a n g h a r u s d i i m p o r . H a l i n i m e m b a w a d a m p a k k e p a d a s e m a k i n t i n g g i n y a t i n g k a t i n f l a s i . S e l a i n i t u p e r s o a l a n d i s i s i p e n a w a r a n s e p e r t i m a s a l a h d i s t r i b u s i j u g a m e m b e r i k a n k o n t r i b u s i k e p a d a k e n a i k a n h a r g a m a k a n a n . T a b e l 8 | I n f l a s i U m u m P e r i o d e I n f l a s i 1996 6.47% 1997 11.05% Semester 1 2.56% Kuartal 3 2.86% Kuartal 4 5.79% 1998 69.12% (Sampai Agustus) S u m b e r : B P S T a b e l 9 I n f l a s i M a k a n a n T a h u n 1 9 9 8 ( % ) Januari 10.15 Pebruari 16.07 Maret 5.42 April 5.91 Mel 3.92 Juni 7.03 luli 12.15 Total lanuari-luli 82.74 S u m b e r : B P S 1 6 5c. U a n g B e r e d a r d a n P e r b a n k a n D a r i s i s i p e r m i n t a a n , p e r k e m b a n g a n u a n g b e r e d a r j u g a t e n t u n y a m e m p e n g a r u h i k e n a i k a n h a r g a . S e b a g a i i l u s t r a s i , l i h a t s a j a p e r t u m -b u h a n u a n g p r i m e r y a n g t e r j a d i . D a l a m p e r i o d e J a n u a r i - J u l i 1997 u a n g p r i m e r t u m b u h s e b e s a r 1 2 % . B a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n p e r i o d e - p e r i o d e J a n u a r i - J u n i m i n g g u k e e m p a t 1998, d i m a n a u a n g p r i m e r t e l a h t u m b u h s e b e s a r 25.5%. U a n g b e r e d a r d a l a m a r t i l u a s ( M 2 ) m e n g a l a m i p e r t u m -b u h a n y a n g t a j a m d i -b u l a n M e i d a n J r m i y a i t u s e -b e s a r 8,57o d a n 157o. D a l a m b u l a n J u l i t e r j a d i k o n t r a k s i y a n g c u k u p b e s a r d a l a m M l d a n M 2 , d i m a n a m a s i n g - m a s i n g t u m b u h s e b e s a r -3,347o d a n - l , 6 2 7 o ( T a b e l 1 0 ) . P e r t u m b u h a n u a n g p r i m e r s e n d i r i d a l a m b u l a n M e i s e m p a t m e n g a l a m i p e n i n g k a t a n y a n g s a n g a t t a j a m m e n j a d i l l , 3 7 o d a r i 2,77o, t e t a p i p e r t u m b u h a n i n i m e l a m b a t p a d a b u l a n - b u l a n b e r i k u t n y a . T a b e l 1 0 U a n g b e r e d a r ( M i l i a r R p ) 1998 MO Perubahan (%) Ml Perubahan (%) M2 Perubahan (%) lanuari 56.014 21,5 92.860 18.5 450.497 26,6 Pebruari 49.620 -11,4 92.509 -0.37 430.241 -4,4 Maret 59.413 19,7 90.270 -2.42 449.824 4,55 April 61.060 2,7 95.368 5.64 453.396 0,79 Mei 67.968 11,3 103.941 8.9 491.909 8,49 )uni 70.300 3,43 109.480 5.32 565.785 15 Juli 70.932 0,89 105.822 -2,34 556.586 -1,62 S u m b e r : B a n k I n d o n e s i a S e m e n t a r a i t u s i t u a s i p e r b a n k a n s w a s t a s e n d i r i m a s i h d i l a n d a k e t i d a k p a s t i a n . H a l i n i t e r l i h a t d a r i r a s i o d e p o s i t o , b a i k R u p i a h m a u p u n v a l u t a a s i n g t e r h a d a p k e s e l u r u h a n d e p o s i t o R u p i a h d a n v a l u t a a s i n g d i B a n k U m u m m e n g a l a m i p e n u n m a n . T a m p a k n y a g u n c a n g a n y a n g t e r j a d i d i d u n i a p e r b a n k a n , s e d i k i t b a n y a k t e l a h m e n g g a n g g u k e p e r c a y a a n n a s a b a h t e r h a d a p b a n k s w a s t a n a s i o n a l ( G r a f i k 5 d a n G r a f i k 6 ) . 1 6 6
Grafik 5
Rasio depostio valas antara Bank Swasta Nasional dengan keseluruhan Bank Umum
60 00 50 00 40.00 30.00 20.00 10,00 0.00
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Grafik 6
Rasio deposito rupiah dari Bank Swasta Nasional dengan keseluruhan Bank Umum
Jul-98
Jan-98 Feb-98 Mar-98 Apr-98 Mei-98 Jun-98 Jul-!
d . A n g g a r a n S e l a i n i t u , h a l l a i n y a n g d a p a t m e n j a d i s u m b e r i n f l a s i a d a l a h d e f i s i t d a l a m a n g g a r a n y a n g s e b e s a r 8.57o d a r i P D B . A P B N s e n d i r i m e m a n g m e n g a l a m i r e v i s i , d i m a n a a k h i m y a d i s e t u j u i b a h w a a n g g a r a n a k a n m e n g a l a m i d e f i s i t s e b e s a r 8,57o d a r i P D B . P e r h i t u n g a n d a m p a k d o m e s t i k n e t t o d a r i e k s p a n s i m o n e t e r a n g g a r a n m e n u n j u k k a n a d a n y a e k s p a n s i 1 6 7
m o n e t e r s e b e s a r 5 6 t r i l i i m ( B a s r i , 1 9 9 8 ) . H a l i n i t e n t u n y a j u g a m e m
-p e n g a r u h i -p e n i n g k a t a n j u m l a h u a n g b e r e d a r . I t u l a h s e b a b n y a m e n g a -p a p e n a j a m a n p r i o r i t a s d i b u t u h k a n . D i s i n i a d a d e s a k a n k e h a t i a n - h a t i a n e k o n o m i (economic prudential). D i d a l a m letter of intent s e n d i r i , m e m a n g a d a s a t u p a s a l t e n t a n g e v a l u a s i p e n g e l u a r a n p u b l i k d a n i n v e s t a s i , y a n g h a r u s d i l a k u k a n p e m e r i n t a h b e k e r j a s a m a d e n g a n B a n k D u n i a . M e n u r u t j a d w a l y a n g a d a , e v a l u a s i i t u h a r u s d i l a k u k a n p e r 3 0 J u n i 1998, t e t a p i d a l a m letter of intent y a n g k e e m p a t t e l a h d i t a n g g u h k a n u n t u k w a k t u y a n g b e l u m d i t e n t u k a n . P a d a h a l k i t a m e l i h a t b a h w a a d a k e c e n d e n m g a n m e n i n g k a t n y a p o l a k e b i j a k a n e k o n o m i y a n g p o p u l i s d e n g a n p e n g u -c u r a n d a n a d a n j u g a s u b s i d i k r e d i t . S u b s i d i t i n g k a t b u n g a k r e d i t m i s a l n y a a k a n m e m b a w a m a s a l a h n y a s e n d i r i . D e n g a n t i n g k a t b u n g a y a n g d i s u b s i d i m a k a t i n d a k a n r a s i o n a l y a n g a k a n d i l a k u k a n o l e h s i p e n e r i m a s u b s i d i a d a l a h m e m a s u k k a n d a n a t e r s e b u t k e d e p o s i t o d a n m e n i k m a t i s e l i s i h t i n g k a t b u n g a y a n g d i s u b s i d i d e n g a n t m g k a t b u n g a p a s a r . D a l a m s i t u a s i e k o n o m i y a n g s e p e r t i i n i p i l i h a n i t u a k a n l e b i h m e n a r i k k e t i m b a n g i n v e s t a s i u s a h a p r o d u k t i f . P o l a y a n g s e p e r t i i n i s e b e n a m y a t e l a h t e r j a d i d i I n d o n e s i a p a d a p e r i o d e s e b e l u m 1983 y a n g d i k e n a l d e n g a n i s t i l a h fungibility d a r i p e l b a g a i s u b s i d i t i n g k a t b u n g a . A d a b a i k n y a k i t a m e n e n g o k k e b e l a k a n g t e n t a n g a p a y a n g t e l a h k i t a b u a t . I t u l a h s e b a b n y a k r i t e r i a e k o n o m i m e n j a d i s e m a k i n p e n t i n g . 2 . 5 . I N D R A d a n P e r p u K e p a i l i t a n D a l a m b e b e r a p a b u l a n t e r a k i r i n i a d a b e b e r a p a p e r k e m b a n g a n m e n a r i k y a n g p e r l u d i i k u t i : P e r t a m a , d a l a m r a n g k a p e n y e l e s a i a n u t a n g l u a r n e g e r i , p e m e r i n t a h m e m b e n t u k I N D R A (Indonesian Debt Restructuring Agency) y a n g m u l a i b e r o p e r a s i A g u s t u s i n i . A d a b e b e r a p a s k e m a y a n g d i t a w a r k a n o l e h I N D R A . P r i n s i p n y a , I N D R A b e m p a y a i m t u k m e n y e d i a k a n m a t a u a n g U S D o l a r d e n g a n n i l a i t u k a r y a n g a k a n d i t e n t u k a n . D a l a m h a l i n i p e m e r i n t a h t i d a k a k a n m e n g a m b i l a l i h a t a u m e n a n g g u n g r e s i k o k o m e r s i a l . S e l a i n i t u d e b i t u r j u g a d a p a t m e m b a y a r u t a n g n y a d a l a m R u p i a h d e n g a n t i n g k a t b u n g a r i i l s e b e s a r 5.57o (5,57o d i a t a s i n f l a s i ) u n t u k j a n g k a w a k t u 8 t a h u n . P e m s a h a a n j u g a d i b e r i k a n p i l i h a n u n t u k m e m a k a i k u r s y a n g l e b i h r e n d a h d a r i y a n g d i t e t a p k a n I N D R A , y a i t u 107o d a n 207o l e b i h r e n d a h , t e t a p i s e b a g a i k o m p e n s a s i n y a b u n g a r i i l p i n j a m a n n y a a k a n m e n j a d i l e b i h t i n g g i y a i t u 2,897o d a n 6,367o m a s i n g - m a s i n g . P e m s a h a a n y a n g i n g i n 1 6 8
b e r p a r t i s i p a s i t e r l e b i h d a h u l u d i h a r u s k a n u n t u k m e r e s t r u k t u r i s a s i u t a n g l u a r n e g e r i n y a d e n g a n m a s a t e n g g a n g m i n i m a l 3 t a h u n d a n j a n g k a w a k t u p e n g e m b a l i a n p o k o k p i n j a m a n m i n i m a l 5 t a h u n d i m a n a t o t a l k e s e l u r u h a n a d a l a h 8 t a h u n . N i l a i t u k a r y a n g d i g u n a k a n a d a l a h n i l a i t u k a r t e r b a i k s e l a m a w a k t u p e n d a f t a r a n k u r s . A p a y a n g t e r c a n t u m d a r i s k e m a d i a t a s , t i d a k d a p a t d i p v m g k i r i m e r u p a k a n s e b u a h u p a y a y a n g k e r a s d a l a m p e n y e l e s a i a n u t a n g l u a r n e g e r i . S e b a g a i i n f r a s t r u k t u r p e m b a n t u a t a u i n s t i t u s i y a n g m e n c o b a m e m b a n t u m e n y e l e s a i k a n u t a n g s w a s t a , I N D R A t a m p a k n y a m e m a n g t e l a h m e n c o b a m e m b e r i k a n s a t u j a l a n k e l u a r d a l a m k e r a n g k a y a n g c u k u p b a i k . T e t a p i s a y a n g n y a p e r s o a l a n y a n g k i t a h a d a p i s e k a r a n g b e r a d a d i l u a r j a n g k a u a n I N D R A . D a l a m h a l p e n e t a p a n k u r s m i s a l n y a , t i n g k a t o p t i m a l y a n g b i s a d i t a w a r k a n I N D R A a d a l a h ' k u r s t e r b a i k ' , y a i t u k u r s R u p i a h r a t a - r a t a t e r t i m b a n g p a l i n g k u a t s e l a m a 2 0 h a r i ( s e l a m a 1 A g u s t u s 1 9 9 8 - 3 0 J u n i 1 9 9 9 ) . D i s i n i I N D R A m e n c o b a u n t u k r e a l i s t i s d e n g a n s i t u a s i y a n g a d a . P e r s o a l a r m y a b e r a p a k a h n i l a i ' k u r s t e r b a i k ' i t u ? A p a k a h ' k u r s t e r b a i k ' i t u t e r j a d i p a d a t i n g k a t y a n g d a p a t d i j a n g k a u a t a u t i d a k ? . S e b a g a i c o n t o h n i l a i t u k a r R u p i a h t e r h a d a p d o l a r c e n d e r u n g b e r g e r a k d a l a m k i s a r a n R p 1 3 . 0 0 0 - R p 1 4 . 0 0 0 . D i s i n i s o a l n y a b u k a n h a n y a k e s t a b i l a n n i l a i t u k a r , t e t a p i k e s t a b i l a n n i l a i t u k a r p a d a t i n g k a t y a n g t e r j a n g k a u . P a d a level i n i , n i l a i t u k a r s t a b i l p a d a t i n g k a t y a n g t a k m u n g k i n t e r j a n g k a u .
S t u d i S o e s a s t r o d a n B a s r i d i Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies ( A p r i l 1 9 9 8 ) m e n u n j u k k a n b a h w a p a d a t i n g k a t n i l a i t u k a r R p 5 0 0 0 , - / U S $ s e k i t a r a 5 0 % d a r i p e r u s a h a a n y a n g t e r d a f t a r d i B u r s a E f e k J a k a r t a m e m i l i k i r a s i o u t a n g D o l a r t e r h a d a p t o t a l h a r t a s e b e s a r 5 0 % a t a u l e b i h . B i l a p e r h i t u n g a n s e n s i t i v i t a s i n i d i n a i k k a n l a g i l e b i h j a u h , p a d a k u r s R p 1 0 . 0 0 0 m i s a l n y a , m a k a r a s i o i t u a k a n m e n i n g k a t l a g i m e n j a d i s e k i t a r 7 0 7 o . T e n t u s a j a a n g k a - a n g k a i n i m a s i h d a p a t d i p e r d e b a t k a n , m e n g i n g a t p e r h i t i m g a n s e c a r a a k u r a t m e m b u t u h k a n i n f o r m a s i y a n g s a n g a t r i n c i . T e t a p i s e b a g a i p a t o k a n , s e t i d a k n y a a n g k a i t u d a p a t m e m b a n t u k i t a u n t u k m e n u n j u k k a n b a h w a s e b a g i a n b e s a r p e r u s a h a a n m e m a n g s u d a h t i d a k m a m p u b e r o p e r a s i d e n g a n k u r s R p 1 0 . 0 0 0 . P a d a h a l , a s u m s i n i l a i D o l a r d a l a m A P B N y a n g d i r e v i s i a d a l a h R p 1 0 . 6 0 0 . K a l a u p u n ' k u r s t e r b a i k ' y a n g b e r h a s i l d i p e r o l e h s e k i s a r R p 1 0 . 0 0 0 , m a k a j u m l a h p e r u s a h a a n y a n g d a p a t b e r t a h a n h i d u p j u g a a k a n s a n g a t t e r b a t a s . M u n g k i n p e n y e l e s a i a n u t a n g d e n g a n s k e m a I N D R A m e m a n g m e m b e r i k a n a r a h c a r a p e n y e l e s a i a n u t a n g , t e t a p i s a y a n g n y a b e g i t u b a n y a k p r a s y a r a t e k o n o m i y a n g h a r u s d i p e n u h i a g a r s k e m a p e n y e l e s a i a n u t a n g i n i b i s a 1 6 9
