Dampak El Niño dan Bencana Asap
terhadap Perekonomian Indonesia
Faisal Basri
5 November 2015
The Numbers: Indonesia’s Haze
Fires raged on peatlands on the outskirts of
Palangkaraya, Indonesia, on November 1, 2015. PHOTO:
Don’t underestimate the impact of El Niño
The latest forecast released on August 13, 2015 by National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)’s Climate
Prediction Center, this year's
El Niño is "significant and
strengthening."
El Niño is a warming of the eastern Pacific Ocean, mainly
along the Equator
, which indicates waters that are warmer
than normal.
These warmer waters are normally confined to the western
Pacific by winds that blow from east to west, pushing the
warmer water toward
Indonesia
and Australia.
More rain in North and South America comes at the expense
of normally rainy Southern Asia and Australia, which become
abnormally
dry and experience droughts
.
Direct economic costs
Businesses take heat from haze in Indonesia:
the economic cost of the fires will likely run
into billions of dollars.
Producers of palm oil, rubber and paper are
bracing for a financial hit from months of fires
and choking haze smothering Indonesia.
The biggest outbreak of fires since 1997 has
devastated 3 million hectares of land and
polluted the air, damaging agricultural regions.
Dampak terhadap perusahaan penerbangan
dan mobilitas manusia dan barang
Selama triwulan III (Juli-September), sekitar 3.000
penerbangan berjadwal mengalami pembatalan:
Garuda sekitar 2.000 penerbangan, Citilink sekitar
600 penerbangan, dan lainnya sekitar 500
penerbangan.
Perjalanan bisnis ke Sumatera dan Kalimantan
anjlok, berdampak terhadap berbagai sektor,
misalnya terutama hotel dan restoran.
Hampir tidak ada sektor yang terbebas dari dampak
negatif bencana asap.
Pada gilirannya merembet ke seantero negeri,
Economic growth by island: Kalimantan and
Sumatera suffered the most
2014: 4.7 Q1-15: 3.5 Q2-15: 2.8 Share = 22.3% 2014: 5.6 Q1-15: 5.2 Q2-15: 5.1 Share = 58.4% 2014: 5.9 Q1-15: 8.9 Q2-15: 8.9 Share = 3.0% 2014: 3.2 Q1-15: 1.1 Q2-15: 1.5 Share = 8.2% 2014: 6.9 Q1-15: 7.3 Q2-15: 8.6 Share = 5.9% 2014: 4.3 Q1-15: 3.7 Q2-15: 10.2 Share = 2.2%
Trade deficit: food products
Sources: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
US $ b illio n s
Ekspor sudah empat tahun terus merosot.
Bencana asap membuat kian terpuruk
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015* 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015*
Total export
203.5 190.0 182.6 176.3 115.1 29.0 -6.6 -3.9 -3.4 -13.3Non-oil and gas
162.0 153.1 149.9 146.0 100.7 24.9 -5.5 -2.0 -2.6 -7.9Oil and gas
41.5 37.0 32.6 30.3 14.4 48.3 -10.9 -11.8 -7.0 -38.6Total import
177.4 191.7 186.6 178.2 107.9 30.7 8.0 -2.6 -4.5 -19.7Non-oil and gas
136.7 149.1 141.4 134.7 88.5 26.2 9.0 -5.2 -4.7 -12.6Oil and gas
40.7 42.6 45.3 43.4 19.4 48.4 4.6 6.4 -4.0 -41.2Surplus (Deficit)
26.1 (-1.6) (-4.1) (-1.9) 7.2Non-oil and gas
25.3 4.0 8.6 11.3 12.2Oil and gas
0.8 (-5.6) (-12.6) (-13.1) -5.0Billion US$
Growth (yoy)
Description
* January-September.
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
Sembilan komoditas primer sumbang
hampir separuh ekspor Indonesia
Kian runyam dengan ancaman boikot
12 Products To Boycott Because You Are A
Haze-Hating Singaporean
(http://mustsharenews.com/asia-paper-products/)
Many will boycott products from haze-causing
firms: Poll
(http://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/environment/many-will-boycott-products-from-haze-causing-firms-poll)
To resolve haze woes, boycott palm oil products
(http://www.straitstimes.com/forum/letters-in-print/to-resolve-haze-woes-boycott-palm-oil-products)
The Haze: Time to Boycott Indonesia and all it's
Products
(https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/haze-time-boycott-indonesia-all-its-products-chris-j-reed-black?trk=pulse-det-nav_art)Impor beras bakal meroket
* January-August. ** Prediction.
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia and prediction
1,356 645 1,805 1,429 237 190 438 1,407 290 251 688 2,751 1,810 473 844 225 1,500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 T h o u san d t o n s
Harga beras merangkak naik
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
Jul
Aug Sep
Premium
8.71 9.57 13.64
Medium
8.94 9.13 10.01
Low
8.98 12.77 17.84
Retail
10.49 11.58 13.43
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
Kenaikan harga beras sangat sensitif terhadap
peningkatan jumlah penduduk miskin
Jumlah penduduk miskin sudah naik sebelum
bencana asap. Per Maret 215 = 28.59 juta (11.22%)
60.0 11.3 24.2 17.8 11.111.2 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 1970 1976 1978 1980 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 * 2 0 1 2 * 2 0 1 3 * 2 0 1 4 * 2 0 1 5 **
* March and September average ** March
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
Pe rce n t of p o p u lat io n Trendline-polynomial
Weighted total of all category scores (0-100 where 100 = most favourable)
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit, Global Food Security Index 2012-2015.
Global food security index, 2012-2015
Country
2012 2013 2014 2015 2012 2013 2014
2015
United States 1 1 1 1 89.5 86.8 89.3 89.0 Singapore .. 16 5 2 .. 79.9 84.3 88.2 Germany 10 11 8 8 83.0 81.7 83.7 83.9 France 4 3 10 9 86.8 83.7 83.4 83.8 United Kingdom 20 20 16 15 79.0 77.3 81.6 81.6 Israel 22 17 17 19 77.7 78.4 80.6 78.9 Japan 16 18 21 21 80.7 77.8 77.8 77.4 South Korea 21 24 25 26 77.8 71.1 73.2 74.8 Malaysia 33 34 34 34 63.9 64.5 68.0 69.0 Brazil 31 29 33 36 67.6 67.0 68.1 67.4 South Africa 40 39 46 41 61.7 61.0 61.1 64.5 China 38 42 42 42 62.5 60.2 62.2 64.2 Russia 29 40 40 43 68.3 60.9 62.7 63.8 Thailand 45 45 49 52 57.9 58.9 59.9 60.0 Vietnam 55 60 67 65 50.4 48.6 49.1 53.4 India 66 70 69 68 45.0 44.4 48.3 50.9 Philippines 63 64 65 72 47.1 46.9 49.4 49.4 Indonesia 64 66 72 74 46.8 45.6 46.5 46.7Congo (Dem. Rep.) 105 107 109 105 18.4 20.8 24.8 30.1
