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We estimate JCI to rally with the support range of 5836-5845 and resistance


Academic year: 2019

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Morning Brief

Although JCI made a brief rally, it finished at a slightly low note along with the

rupiah depreciation. Investors also digest the development of trade war. Top

Losers: Trade (-0.56%), Consumer (-0.43%), Basic Industry (-0.29%)

Most of global markets finished on high notes after President Trump’s speech on global trade. Meanwhile, investors kept their wary eyes on the Fed’s stance of its benchmark rates. On the other side, the U.S. markets closed lower last night after the Fed’s stance of 0.25% monetary tightening.

Today’s Outlook: Powell's Stance

We estimate JCI to rally with the support range of 5836-5845 and resistance

range of 5923-5931. The positive sentiment comes from the statement of the Fed’s Chair Jerome Powell. In line with the projection, the Fed hiked its benchmark rate by 25 bps. Powell stated that the Fed must raise benchmark rate if inflation unexpectedly hikes. However, he stated that it discerned no pressure of hiking inflation to occur in near future. The backdrop caused the U.S. bond yields to lower.

From the domestic outlook, investors await the result of BI’s Board of Governors Meeting and estimate the possible hike of 25 bps with a view to anticipating the possible volatility until the end of 2018. On the other side, the positive

ELSA : Makes the Best Use of Hiking Global Crude Prices


Stocks Recommendation

BBTN Last = 2640

Analysis The growth of 12.3% in August’s credit shows

Indonesia-based robust banking sector. BBTN

is a bank with the highest credit growth of 19.1%.

Range 2600 – 2760

Action Trading Buy. Cut Loss If Below 2600

AALI Last = 12200

Analysis The global CPO prices are estimated to rally.

The mandatory on B20 biodiesel and the moratorium on new oil palm plantations likely cause the decline in supply for global markets.

Range 12000 – 12825

Action Trading Buy. Cut Loss If Below 12000

UNTR Last = 31125

Analysis A steep decline in UNTR’s stock prices has

caused its valuation attractive. Now, UNTR is traded at P/E of 12.3x a steep lower than the

2-year average of 21.8x.

Range 31000 – 32500

Action Trading buy. Cut Loss If Below 31000

Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg

Sector Rotation

Source: Bloomberg


Company News

Domestic & Global News

BI Likely Hikes Its Benchmark Rates

Bank Indonesia (BI) is estimated to re-raise its benchmark rate in this month. BI certainly raises its 7Day Reverse Repo Rate

because it upholds the pre-emptive, front loading, and ahead of the curve policies. It will hold monthly RDG from 26 to 27

September. The market consensus collected by Reuters estimates that BI will hike its benchmark rate by 25 bps to 5.75%. Under Governor Perry Warjiyo’s administration, BI’s stance tends to be hawkish as he had increased benchmark rates by 100 bps since May 2018. (CNBC Indonesia)

Fed Raises U.S. Interest Rates to a Range of 2.0 to 2.25 Percent

The U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates on Wednesday and left intact its plans to steadily tighten monetary policy, as it forecast that the U.S. economy would enjoy at least three more years of growth. Fed policymakers lifted the benchmark overnight lending rate by a quarter of a percentage point to a range of 2.00 percent to 2.25 percent. (Reuters)

MEDC : Issues Bonds of IDR1.2 Trillion

MEDC settled the right issue of the II Phase of III Self Registration of 2018. The shelf registration amounted to IDR1.2 trillion, and was divided into two series respectively amounted to IDR1.15 trillion and IDR47.5 billion. Each of series has the coupon of 10% and 10.75% paid every 3 months. (Bisnis Indonesia)

PTBA : Augments Power Plant Portion

PTBA continuously augments its revenues contributed by the power plant segment to reach more than 10%. Thus, it actively cooperates with some parties, such as Bangka Belitung government and PT Angkasa Pura II to finish the solar power generator (PLTS). Of note, the total investment fund PTBA spent on PLTS was USD197 million. (Kontan)

JSMR : Settles Matured Bonds of IDR1 Trillion

JSMR settle the payment of I Phase of I Shelf Registration of 2013 for series S and C matured on September 27, 2018. The two series have the total amount to reach IDR1 trillion. In 2018, JSMR actively looks for loan facilities to fund its business expansion and debt settlement. Indeed, it also allocates 2018’s capex of IDR29 trillion. (Kontan)

ELSA : Makes the Best Use of Hiking Global Crude Prices


Global Economic Calendar

Date Country Hour

Jakarta Event Period Actual Consensus Previous

Monday GER 15:00 IFO Business Climate Sep 103.7 103 103.8 24 - Sep

Tuesday USA 21:00 Conf. Board Consumer Confidence Sep 138.4 131.5 133.4

25 - Sep

Wednesday USA 21:00 New Home Sales Aug 629k 631k 627k

26 - Sep

Thursday USA 01:00 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 26-Sep 2.25% 2.25% 2.00%

27 - Sep USA 01:00 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 26-Sep 2.00% 2.00% 1.75%

GER 13:00 GfK Consumer Confidence Oct 10.5 10.5

EU 16:00 Consumer Confidence Sep F -- -2.9

GER 19:00 CPI MoM Sep P 0.10% 0.10%

GER 19:00 CPI YoY Sep P 2.00% 2.00%

USA 19:30 GDP Annualized QoQ 2Q T 4.30% 4.20%

USA 19:30 Durable Goods Orders Aug P 1.70% -1.70%

USA 19:30 Initial Jobless Claims 22-Sep -- 201k

Friday JPN 06:30 Jobless Rate Aug 2.50% 2.50%

28 - Sep JPN 06:50 Industrial Production MoM Aug P 1.50% -0.10%

CHN 08:45 Caixin China PMI Mfg Sep 50.5 50.6

GER 14:55 Unemployment Change (000's) Sep -8k -8k

UK 15:30 GDP QoQ 2Q F 0.40% 0.40%

UK 15:30 GDP YoY 2Q F 1.30% 1.30%

USA 19:30 Personal Income Aug 0.40% 0.30%

USA 19:30 Personal Spending Aug 0.30% 0.40%

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg

Domestic Economic Calendar

Date JakartaHour Event Period Actual Consensus Prev.

Thursday Tentative Bank Indonesia 7D Reverse Repo 27-Sep 5.75% 5.50%

27 - Sep

Friday Tentative Money Supply M2 YoY Aug -- 6.30%

28 - Sep Tentative Money Supply M1 YoY Aug -- 7.00%

Corporate Calendar

Date Event Company

Tuesday Extraordinary Shareholder Meeting BNLI, FREN

25 - Sep Cum Dividend Date HEXA (IDR0.02 per share)

Wednesday Extraordinary Shareholder Meeting BIPP

26 - Sep Annual Shareholder Meeting RIGS, ZINC

Wednesday Extraordinary Shareholder Meeting MYRX

27 - Sep Annual Shareholder Meeting AKKU, BIPI

Friday IPO Listing Superkrane Mitra Utama

28 - Sep



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