Pengaruh Pendapatan Asli Daerah, Dana Perimbangan, dan Kemandirian Fiskal terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Era Disentralisasi Fiskal Kabupaten/Kota Provinsi Sumatera Utara Periode 2008-2012

(1)

Lampiran i

Populasi Penelitian

No

Kab/Kota

1 Nias

2 Madina

3 Tapanuli Selatan

4 Tapanuli Tengah

5 Tapanuli Utara

6 Toba Samosir

7 Labuhan Batu Selatan

8 Labuhan Batu Utara

9 Labuhan Batu

10 Asahan

11 Simalungun

12 Dairi

13 Karo

14 Deli Serdang

15 Langkat

16 Nias Selatan

17 Humbang Hasundutan

18 Pakpak Barat

19 Samosir

20 Serdang Bedagai

21 Batu Bara

(2)

Lampiran ii

Sampel Penelitian

No

Kab/Kota

1 Madina

2 Tapanuli Selatan

3 Tapanuli Tengah

4 Tapanuli Utara

5 Toba Samosir

6 Labuhanbatu

7 Asahan

14 Humbang Hasundutan

15 Samosir

16 Serdang Bedagai

17 Tanjung Balai

18 Pematangsiantar

19 Tebing Tinggi

20 Medan

21 Binjai

(3)

Lampiran iii

Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Kab/Kota Sumatera Utara Thn 2008

PDRB=

𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑹𝑹𝑷𝑷 (𝒕𝒕) −𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑹𝑹𝑷𝑷 (𝒕𝒕−𝟏𝟏)

𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑹𝑹𝑷𝑷 (𝒕𝒕−𝟏𝟏)

x100%

Nama Kab/Kota 2008

PDRB (t) PDRB (t-1) Selisih

Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Madina 575838115 498096323 77741792 0.15608 Tapanuli Selatan 852492855 761959160 90533695 0.11882 Tapanuli Tengah 458573854 410516897 48056957 0.11706 Tapanuli Utara 502419295 467394571 35024724 0.07494 Toba Samosir 430933764 390015425 40918339 0.10491 Labuhanbatu 1062723985 996983982 65740003 0.06594 Asahan 756746935 862655178

-105908243 -0.12277 Simalungun 986211444 851826911 134384533 0.15776 Dairi 515927335 419066903 96860432 0.23113 Karo 609976503 585200191 24776312 0.04234 Deli Serdang 1272248646 1093492577 178756069 0.16347 Langkat 932971963 894822943 38149020 0.04263 Nias Selatan 571503190 301533446 269969744 0.89532 Humbang

(4)

Lampiran iv

Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Kab/Kota Sumatera Utara Thn 2009

PDRB=

x100%

Pertumbuhan Ekonomi 570796379 575838115 -5041736 -0.00883281 552194760 852492855 -300298095 -0.543826412 457946235 458573854 -627619 -0.001370508 566892707 502419295 64473412 0.113731243 463273200 430933764 32339436 0.069806404 772813384 1062723985 -289910601 -0.37513662 759527867 756746935 2780932 0.003661396 981198871 986211444 -5012573 -0.005108621 504327750 515927335 -11599585 -0.023000093 680848465 609976503 70871962 0.104093592 1329881428 1272248646 57632782 0.043336782 992177367 932971963 59205404 0.059672198 625537335 571503190 54034145 0.086380368 408813288 401444934 7368354 0.018023763 597884204 447279524 150604680 0.251896068 653593863 569793114 83800749 0.128215324

404175668 404175668 0 0

(5)

Lampiran v

Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Kab/Kota Sumatera Utara Thn 2010

PDRB=

x100%

PDRB (t) PDRB (t-1) Selisih Pertumbuhan Ekonomi

605673909 570796379 34877530 0.061103278

514360615 552194760 -37834145 -0.068515944

453053514 457946235 -4892721 -0.010684051

622669517 566892707 55776810 0.098390417

462914653 463273200 -358547 -0.000773943

602340061 772813384 -170473323 -0.220587954

803859063 759527867 44331196 0.05836678

1018775568 981198871 37576697 0.038296719

547309805 504327750 42982055 0.085226433

674964354 680848465 -5884111 -0.008642321

1382469619 1329881428 52588191 0.039543519

1045642691 992177367 53465324 0.053886861

563118934 625537335 -62418401 -0.099783654

436721786 408813288 27908498 0.068267101

446748973 597884204 -151135231 -0.252783449

681388782 653593863 27794919 0.042526285

384723557 404175668 -19452111 -0.048127863

505763900 505763901 -1 -1.97721E-09

403985910 409709862 -5723952 -0.013970745

2634507194 2495746996 138760198 0.055598664

449912012 410164161 39747851 0.096907177

(6)

Lampiranvi

Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Kab/Kota Sumatera Utara Thn 2011

PDRB=

x100%

PDRB (t) PDRB (t-1) Selisih Pertumbuhan Ekonomi

683211467 605673909 77537558 0.128018653

676602707 514360615 162242092 0.315424796

566818632 453053514 113765118 0.251107462

746114336 622669517 123444819 0.198250943

486205563 462914653 23290910 0.050313616

672898410 602340061 70558349 0.117140389

930300675 803859063 126441612 0.157293259

1122766297 1018775568 103990729 0.102074227

590631559 547309805 43321754 0.079153988

737316696 674964354 62352342 0.092378718

1666159891 1382469619 283690272 0.20520543

1117414307 1045642691 71771616 0.068638758

589321759 563118934 26202825 0.0465316

507387382 436721786 70665596 0.161809184

503311463 446748973 56562490 0.12660911

779953807 681388782 98565025 0.144653137

391229898 384723557 6506341 0.01691173

588080074 505763900 82316174 0.162756128

499368456 403985910 95382546 0.236103645

3136826933 2634507194 502319739 0.190669337

606477776 449912012 156565764 0.347991962

(7)

Lampiran vii

Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Kab/Kota Sumatera Utara Thn 2012

PDRB=

x100%

Pertumbuhan Ekonomi

822039426 683211467 138827959 0.203199106

783006713 676602707 106404006 0.157262164

722128924 566818632 155310292 0.274003505

762884781 746114336 16770445 0.022477044

658498617 486205563 172293054 0.354362572

801728445 672898410 128830035 0.191455401

1062015892 930300675 131715217 0.141583491

1408013221 1122766297 285246924 0.254057256

658494400 590631559 67862841 0.114898772

813300261 737316696 75983565 0.103054177

1860799680 1666159891 194639789 0.116819394 1430047255 1117414307 312632948 0.279782482

648206150 589321759 58884391 0.099918915

616095231 507387382 108707849 0.214250202

510120051 503311463 6808588 0.013527584

887638460 779953807 107684653 0.138065424

499140743 391229898 107910845 0.275824638

687017318 588080074 98937244 0.168237708

537633447 499368456 38264991 0.076626768

3078876109 3136826933 -57950824 -0.018474345

745478966 606477776 139001190 0.229194202

(8)

Lampiran viii

Pendapatan Asli Daerah (PAD)

Kab/Kota Sumatera Utara 2009-2012

Nama Kab/Kota PAD

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Madina 575049782 542069693 597246592 679506652 791409493 Tapanuli Selatan 763157528 484245436 517689957 652666732 726028773 Tapanuli Tengah 422362861 424551288 451833378 555264031 705932965 Tapanuli Utara 485050825 549892002 563641537 676187182 726053475 Toba Samosir 381343397 432909612 457876507 486356687 656081814 Labuhanbatu 851601409 4989993409 540259399 670125418 764412735 Asahan 605016764 677151263 721041081 843677575 1039734135 Simalungun 880839631 959295423 970540796 1078592676 1394640673 Dairi 466825993 454497732 503351826 549635477 612556975 Karo 520287440 545230547 584866456 650260229 753388842 Deli Serdang 1180106429 1249163262 1307283024 1624362776 1853853020 Langkat 830885012 890337146 994609313 1108552890 1378567032 Nias Selatan 345429634 371878210 407908867 491454061 540170385 Humbang

(9)

Lampiran ix

Dana Perimbangan

Kab/Kota Sumatera Utara 2009-2012

Nama Kab/Kota Dana Perimbangan

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Madina 486616770 471101581 496601753 539510212 624737082 Tapanuli Selatan 656200407 364292772 412917731 450930689 547419656 Tapanuli Tengah 361444675 375915955 395696961 421841806 507033029 Tapanuli Utara 414838157 447724986 445304912 488402686 565630017 Toba Samosir 323199553 353495330 354898543 380231093 463267888 Labuhanbatu 712849506 356828914 410592537 460031899 591320545 Asahan 549266559 577656282 589031936 629142075 751912958 Simalungun 786805461 791048414 769606466 828603068 1021460381 Dairi 409207697 402568666 409964594 443722273 521886257 Karo 476021362 474020027 483849879 515454236 615142283 Deli Serdang 971755533 988789920 1025331368 1064005654 1237551490 Langkat 764050826 775339383 859012340 928573080 1060399150 Nias Selatan 319779873 336907507 360429265 399717262 469146621 Humbang

(10)

Lampiran x

Kemandirian Fiskal

Kab/Kota di Sumatera Utara Thn 2008

KF=

𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷

𝑻𝑻𝑻𝑻𝒕𝒕𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑷𝑷𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑩𝑩𝑩𝑩𝑹𝑹𝑷𝑷𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑹𝑫𝑫𝑹𝑹𝑫𝑫

2008

Nama Kab/Kota

Realisasi

PAD Total Realisasi Belanja Daerah Kemandirian Fiskal

Madina 575049782 546029071 1.053148656

Tapanuli Selatan 763157528 778314883 0.980525421

Tapanuli Tengah 422362861 421282732 1.002563905

Tapanuli Utara 485050825 499734367 0.970617306

Toba Samosir 381343397 400570675 0.952000286

Labuhanbatu 851601409 786630389 1.082594089

Asahan 605016764 673121331 0.898822747

Simalungun 880839631 957140773 0.920282215

Dairi 466825993 467291950 0.999002857

Karo 520287440 473372300 1.099108334

Deli Serdang 1180106429 1184495089 0.996294911

Langkat 830885012 831759112 0.998949095

Nias Selatan 345429634 316058544 1.092929271

Humbang

Hasundutan 366363230 381073112 0.961398793

Samosir 327529713 375149771 0.873063876

Serdang Bedagai 533623627 503033147 1.060812056

Tanjung Balai 330396225 339169855 0.974132047

Pematangsiantar 447569366 440921796 1.015076528

Tebing Tinggi 316429679 329821636 0.959396366

Medan 1747915721 1872915721 0.933259143

Binjai 379986339 393514430 0.965622376

(11)

Lampiran xi

Kemandirian Fiskal

Kab/Kota di Sumatera Utara Thn 2009

KF=

Total Realisasi Belanja Daerah

Kemandirian Fiskal

Madina 542069693 561023846 0.966215067

Tapanuli Selatan 484245436 552969504 0.875718159 Tapanuli Tengah 424551288 451150422 0.94104154 Tapanuli Utara 549892002 506301592 1.08609574

Toba Samosir 432909612 460718504 0.939640167

Labuhanbatu 4989993409 706462387 7.063353267

Asahan 677151263 673309885 1.005705216

Simalungun 959295423 930438849 1.031013939

Dairi 454497732 455902250 0.996919256

Karo 545230547 590201954 0.923803358

Deli Serdang 1249163262 1253435936 0.996591231

Langkat 890337146 914660232 0.973407518

Nias Selatan 371878210 470327567 0.790679169

Humbang

Hasundutan 390313832 378495284 1.031225087

Samosir 355736366 386634580 0.920084194

Serdang Bedagai 597974896 593190649 1.008065277 Tanjung Balai 340843686 359316852 0.948588089 Pematangsiantar 474998582 458837652 1.035221456 Tebing Tinggi 352147725 349459456 1.007692649

Medan 1870374442 1886588720 0.991405505

(12)

Lampiran xii

Kemandirian Fiskal

Kab/Kota di Sumatera Utara Thn 2010

KF=

2010

Realisasi PAD Total Realisasi Belanja Daerah Kemandirian Fiskal

597246592 602563533 0.991176132

517689957 472067567 1.096643771

451833378 434505433 1.039879697

563641537 548166791 1.028229995

457876507 462560213 0.989874386

540259399 599477429 0.901217248

721041081 716231011 1.006715808

970540796 1016067667 0.955193072

503351826 487883816 1.03170429

584866456 585246911 0.999349924

1307283024 1333248402 0.980524726

994609313 967881061 1.027615224

407908867 465293748 0.876669564

408726884 393014475 1.039979212

375422734 367805497 1.02070996

649616644 666468396 0.974714852

339701014 338243925 1.004307805

474998582 458837652 1.035221456

346645563 315430692 1.098959524

2069833895 2235195758 0.926019069

442053734 418220391 1.05698752

(13)

Lampiran xiii

Kemandirian Fiskal

Kab/Kota di Sumatera Utara Thn 2011

KF=

2011

679506652 650263316 1.04497153

652666732 554348545 1.177358068

555264031 544321692 1.020102706

676187182 705123140 0.958963256

486356687 479726388 1.013821001

670125418 632347460 1.059742405

843677575 892574470 0.945218134

1078592676 1088622687 0.990786513

549635477 535857676 1.02571168

650260229 675614311 0.96247255

1624362776 1654873747 0.981562961

1108552890 1063869134 1.042001177

491454061 479421890 1.02509725

464390691 432517403 1.073692498

415919855 431142832 0.964691569

779632146 731773294 1.065401201

390371559 393794117 0.991308763

565383728 564819922 1.000998205

412196446 437485436 0.94219467

2747359034 3041037853 0.903428095

579565918 546497391 1.060509945

(14)

Lampiran xiv

Kemandirian Fiskal

Kab/Kota di Sumatera Utara Thn 2012

KF=

2012

791409493 765109821 1.034373722

726028773 676023654 1.073969481

705932965 680016226 1.038111942

726053475 737946826 0.983883187

656081814 619783799 1.058565608

764412735 760581998 1.005036586

1039734135 1037633546 1.002024404

1394640673 1378042599 1.012044674

612556975 593188127 1.032652117

753388842 750398279 1.003985301

1853853020 1826070426 1.015214415

1378567032 1329229103 1.037117701

540170385 622728970 0.867424531

551371659 511537854 1.077870689

447732374 415012206 1.078841459

875700482 833559067 1.050556003

465842679 446140831 1.044160603

669207445 639607160 1.046278852

482097882 479585196 1.00523929

2998203912 3021172391 0.992397495

689107085 650087241 1.060022473

(15)

Lampiran xv

Tabel 4.1

Descriptives

Statistic Std. Error

Pertumbuhan_Ekonomi Mean .0951 .01436

95% Confidence Interval

for Mean

Lower Bound .0666

Upper Bound .1235

5% Trimmed Mean .0976

Median .0910

Variance .023

Std. Deviation .15056

Minimum -.54

Maximum .90

Range 1.44

Interquartile Range .12

Skewness .390 .230

Kurtosis 9.716 .457

(16)

Lampiran xvi

Gambar 4.1

Grafik Histogram

(17)

(18)

Lampiran xviii

Tabel 4.2

Hasil Uji Normalitas

Tests of Normality

Kolmogorov-Smirnova Shapiro-Wilk

Statistic Df Sig. Statistic df Sig.

Pertumbuhan_Ekonomi .144 110 .200 .849 110 .000

(19)

Lampiran xix

Tabel 4.3

Hasil Uji Multikolinearitas

Coefficientsa

Model

Collinearity Statistics

Tolerance VIF

1 PAD .052 3.181

Dana_Perimbangan .091 5.028

Kemandirian_Fiskal .094 2.609

(20)

Lampiran xx

Tabel 4.4

Model Summaryb

Model R R Square

Adjusted R

Square

Std. Error of

the Estimate Durbin-Watson

1 .296a .088 .062 .14584 1.614

a. Predictors: (Constant), Kemandirian_Fiskal, Dana_Perimbangan, PAD

(21)

Lampiran xxi

(22)

Lampiran xxii

Tabel 4.5

Hasil Regresi Linear Berganda

Model Summaryb

Model R R Square

Adjusted R

Square

Std. Error of the

Estimate

1 .965a .937 .932 .32809

a. Predictors: (Constant), Kemandirian_Fiskal, Dana_Perimbangan,

PAD

(23)

Lampiran xxiii

Tabel 4.6

Hasil Uji F

ANOVAb

Model Sum of Squares Df Mean Square F Sig.

1 Regression .216 3 .072 3.391 .021a

Residual 2.255 106 .021

Total 2.471 109

a. Predictors: (Constant), Kemandirian_Fiskal, Dana_Perimbangan, PAD

b. Dependent Variable: Pertumbuhan_Ekonomi

(24)

Lampiran xxiv

Tabel 4.7

Hasil Uji t

Coefficientsa

Model

Unstandardized

Coefficients

Standardized

Coefficients

t Sig.

B Std. Error Beta

1 (Constant) -.148 .104 .465 .000

PAD .489 .000 -.422 -1.039 .021

Dana_Perimbangan .395 .000 .375 1.218 .045

Kemandirian_Fiskal -.024 .078 .033 .109 .914

a. Dependent Variable: Pertumbuhan_Ekonomi