Market Review
IHSG (-0.17%) ditutup melemah 11.42 poin kelevel 6536.46 dengan sektor Pertanian (-0.93%) dan Industri Dasar (-0.84%) menjadi paling tertekan. Investor asing tercatat net buy 372.85 miliar rupiah meskipun pergerakan nilai tukar rupiah melemah 0.38% kelevel Rp13.973 per USD. Pelemahan rupiah ini juga menahan laju optimis IHSG setelah sebelumnya berhasil menguat kembali menguji kelevel tertinggi selanjutnya.
Leader:
BMRI, TOWR, BBRI, SQMI, ISAT Laggard:
CPIN, JPFA, PGAS, INPP, INCO
IHSG bergerak kembali terkonsolidasi setelah dibuka menguat dengan pola candlestick bearish counter attack dan seakan pulled back upper bollinger bands. Indikasi pergerakan IHSG masih cenderung positif dengan bertahannya diatas area MA5. Indikator Stochastic bergeraka bearish dengan momentum indikator RSI yang menukik pada momentum bearish konsolidasi. Sehingga diperkirakan IHSG akan bergerak cenderung kembali terkonsolidasi mencoba bertahan diatas support MA5 dan mencoba break out upper bollinger bands hingga resistance 6600. Saham-saham yang masih dapat dicermati diantaranya LSIP, SMGR, WTON, TLKM, ADHI, UNTR.
Indeks Nikkei (-1.04%), TOPIX (-1.10%) dan KOSPI (-0.73%) membuka perdagangan dengan melemah cukup signifikan. Kecemasan Investor kembali memuncak setelah Trump tidak mencapai kesepakatan perdagangan dengan China sebelum kenaikan tarif lebih lanjut diberlakukan. Dimana Trump dikabarkan tidak akan bertemu dengan Presiden China Xi Jinping sebelum batas waktu 1 Maret untuk menghindari tarif baru AS. Harga minyak WTI (-0.2%) kembali turun setelah merosot ke level $52.53 perbarrel pada perdagangan sebelumnya. Biji Besi berjangka mencapai kelevel tertinggi sejak 2014 ditengah kekhawatiran krisis yang semakin parah pada produsen dan supply Biji Besi pada pasokan dunia.
Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan
Analisis
:
• Pola pergerakan membentuk pola flag pattern dengan indikasi menguat menguji resistance dan target flag pattern.
• Stop-loss jika harga saham terkonfirmasi break out support MA20
• Indikator stochastic bergerak pada area pada area oversold dengan bullish reversal momentum indicator RSI
• Support : 1220-1315
• Resistance : 1460-1590
• Stop-loss : 1380
• Target Price : 1520-1660
TRADING BUY
LSIP
Analisis
:
• Pergerakan harga saham mencapai level lower bound dari rectangle sehingga berpeluang rebound menguji upper bound.
• Stop-loss jika harga saham break out support lower bound
• Indikator Stochastic membentuk pola golden-cross dengan indicator RSI yang bullish reversal momentum.
• Support : 77000-80800
• Resistance : 84400-88000
• Stop-loss : 80500
• Target Price : 84500-88000
TRADING BUY
Analisis
:
• Candlestick membentuk pola bearish harami dengan indikasi terkoreksi menguji support MA5 hingga support MA20
• Stop-loss jika harga saham terkonfirmasi break out support MA5
• Indikator stochastic dead-cross pada area overbought dengan bearish reversal momentum.
• Support : 960-1055
• Resistance : 1150-1270
• Stop-loss : 1030
• Target Price : 960
PARTIAL SELL
ANTM
Analisis
:
• Bearish engulfing dengan indikasi terkoreksi menguji MA20.
• Stop-loss jika harga saham terkonfirmasi break out support MA5
• Indikator Stochastic bergerak pada area overbought dan RSI yang bergerak bearish reversal momentum keluar dari area overbought menuju oversold.
• Support : 4800-5150
• Resistance : 5450-5850
• Stop-loss : 5300
• Target Price : 4850
PARTIAL SELL
LS-27 Index
Legend :
B: BUY (allocate till 100% of the weighted capital to accumulate, higher than 50% upside probability) SB: SPECULATIVE BUY (allocate 25%-50% of the weighted capital to accumulate, 25%-50% upside probability) W: WAIT (wait for proper entry level, do the stop-loss if necessary)
H: HOLD (hold the portfolio position, aim for the best price to distribute)
PS: PARTIAL SELL (distribute 25%-50% part of the portfolio, 25%-50% downside probability) S: SELL (distribute till 100% of the portfolio, higher than 50% downside probability)
TB: TRADING BUY (short term or intraday trading within a tight trading range. Highly speculative).
Analyst Conclusions:
The Index has reached the wave 3.
Support Support Resist ance Resist ance
2 1 1 2
Agricult ure
TBLA 870 950 970 1,020 1,100 Consolidations SB 940 1,020 AALI 12,750 13,575 13,625 14,500 15,000 Bearish momentum PS 13,500
SSMS 1,115 1,180 1,180 1,250 1,330 Consolidations TB 1,150 1,250
Basic Indust ry
TKIM 10,850 12,350 13,475 14,150 16,100 Consolidations TB 13,000 14,150 INKP 10,700 11,700 12,950 13,000 14,400 Consolidations W 12,800
CPIN 6,700 7,200 7,800 8,000 8,850 Bullish consolidations TB 7,700 8,600
Consumer
GGRM 77,000 80,700 81,300 84,500 88,000 Rectangle TB 81,000 84,500 HOKI 620 675 715 720 765 Consolidations W 700
ICBP 9,800 10,450 10,525 11,400 12,300 Bearish momentum PS 10,400 UNVR 47,100 49,000 49,725 51,400 53,000 Stoch dead-cross PS 49,500
Finance
BBRI 3,550 3,750 3,930 3,940 4,100 Bearish consolidations PS 3,900 BBNI 8,200 8,650 9,075 9,100 9,525 Break out support W 9,000 BBCA 25,800 26,800 27,650 28,275 29,750 Bearish momentum PS 27,000
Infrast ruct ure
TOWR 700 770 845 850 930 Consolidations PS 820 PGAS 2,250 2,410 2,460 2,600 2,800 Bearish momentum S 2,420
Misc. Indust ry
SRIL 300 322 342 340 350 Oversold TB 336 350 ASII 7,375 7,825 8,200 8,400 9,100 Rectangle PS 8,000
Mining
PTBA 3,850 4,170 4,310 4,480 4,800 Consolidations TB 4,250 4,480 ITMG 21,000 22,000 22,175 23,000 24,650 Consolidations TB 21,800 24,650 ADRO 1,215 1,310 1,345 1,400 1,500 Consolidations W 1,350
Propert y
LPCK 2,200 2,400 2,550 2,650 3,000 Consolidations H 2,500 2,650 WSKT 1,680 1,850 2,000 2,070 2,200 Bullish momentum SB 2,000 2,200 PWON 625 660 690 700 720 Break out MA20 B 680 720
Trading
UNTR 24,000 25,425 26,500 27,000 28,200 Stoch golden-cross B 26,000 27,000 SCMA 1,700 1,800 1,820 1,900 2,100 Oversold TB 1,800 1,900 LPPF 5,325 6,000 6,575 7,000 8,000 Oversold TB 6,500 7,000 ERAA 1,875 2,100 2,180 2,400 2,670 Oversold W 2,080
Equity Technical Analyst: Lanjar Nafi, [email protected]
Disclaimer on
St op-loss Target Price
Friday, 08 February 2019
Equity Technical Indicator
Re sistance P rice Sup p o rt We e kly We e kly
Fractal 07/02/2019 Fractal Hig h Lo w RSI B. Band 20 Days 50 Days 200 Days
Equity Technical Indicator
Re sistance P rice Sup p o rt We e kly We e kly
Fractal 07/02/2019 Fractal Hig h Lo w RSI B. Band 20 Days 50 Days 200 Days
PN BN .JK 1,450 1,350 1,040 1,450 1,405 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
PTBA.JK 4,470 4,310 4,220 4,370 4,330 Neutral Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Under Upper Upper
PTPP.JK 2,370 2,290 2,210 2,370 2,310 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
PWON .JK 650 690 650 695 670 Neutral Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
RALS.JK 1,710 1,635 1,560 1,800 1,600 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
ROTI.JK 1,240 1,230 1,205 1,235 1,230 Neutral Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
SCMA.JK 2,020 1,820 1,850 1,915 1,835 Oversold Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Under
SGRO.JK 2,420 2,260 2,320 2,340 2,250 Oversold Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Under
SIDO.jk 830 825 810 840 825 Neutral Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Upper
SILO.JK 3,400 3,260 3,160 3,390 3,240 Neutral Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Under
SIMP.JK 466 515 505 530 520 Neutral Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
SMBR.JK 1,680 1,610 1,500 1,680 1,630 Neutral Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Under
SMCB.JK 1,995 1,985 1,755 1,995 1,985 Overbought Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
SMGR.JK 13,200 12,800 12,250 13,200 12,800 Neutral Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
SMRA.JK 1,070 950 950 1,070 985 Oversold Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Under Upper Upper
SRIL.JK 354 342 336 350 342 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Under Under
SSMS.JK 1,230 1,180 1,140 1,200 1,185 Neutral Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Under
TBIG.JK 4,950 4,800 4,610 4,950 4,800 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
TBLA.JK 1,015 970 945 990 970 Neutral Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
TIN S.JK 1,430 1,375 1,265 1,430 1,335 Neutral Bearish Overbought Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
TKIM.JK 13,950 13,475 13,000 13,950 13,550 Neutral Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
TLKM.JK 3,930 3,860 3,780 3,930 3,870 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Under Upper Upper
TOTL.JK 570 625 570 650 600 Overbought Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
TOWR.JK 880 845 720 880 820 Neutral Bearish Overbought Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
TPIA.JK 5,925 5,700 5,375 5,925 5,725 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
ULTJ.JK 1,270 1,215 1,190 1,230 1,220 Neutral Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Under Upper Upper
UN TR.JK 26,475 26,500 25,625 26,775 26,275 Neutral Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Under Under
UN V R.JK 50,050 49,725 48,500 50,050 49,875 Overbought Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
WIKA.JK 1,945 1,845 1,835 1,915 1,890 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Under Upper Upper
WOOD.JK 625 680 580 690 600 Overbought Bullish Overbought Upper Bands Upper Upper Upper
WSBP.JK 406 410 384 418 392 Neutral Bullish Neutral Upper Bands Upper Upper Upper
WSKT.JK 2,040 2,000 1,830 2,050 1,985 Neutral Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
WTON .JK 418 496 402 500 408 Neutral Bullish Overbought Upper Bands Upper Upper Upper
Source : Reliance Research
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