Overview MP2 [Compatibility Mode]

(1)

Project lifecycle

2

What is a Project?

A project is a temporary endeavor undertaken to accomplish a

unique purpose.

Projects normally involve several people performing interrelated

activities, and the main sponsor for the project is often interested

in the effective use of resources to complete the project in an

efficient and timely manner.

• A project has a unique purpose.

• A project is temporary.

• A project requires resources, often from various area.

• A project should have a primary sponsor or customer.

(2)

A Balancing Act

Schedule requirements cost

Source: William Gendron, presentation at 1998 PMI Global Forum

Business Objective Risk

Risk The Project

Customer Expectation

A Balanced Project

Time

Cost

Scope

(3)

Business Objectives

Expectation and Objective Congruency

Client/Customer Expectations

Low High

Low OK

Customer wants more than the

organization intends to provide.

High

Business needs more from the project

than the customer.

OK

6

What is Project Management?

Project management is the application of knowledge,

skills, tools, and techniques to project activities in order

to meet project requirements.

(4)

7

Project Management Framework

(5)

9

What is Project Management, Continued

Stakeholders are the people involved in or affected by

project activities and include the project sponsor,

project team, support staff, customers, users, suppliers,

and even opponents to the project.

Successful project managers work on developing good

relationships with project stakeholders to ensure their

needs and expectations are understood and met.

10

Knowledge areas describe the key competencies that project

managers must develop.

•

The four core knowledge areas of project management include

project scope, time, cost, and quality management.

• These are considered to be core knowledge areas because they lead to specific project objectives.

•

The four facilitating knowledge areas of project management are

human resources, communications, risk, and procurement

management

.

• These are called facilitating areas because they are the means through which the project objectives are achieved.

(6)

11

Project management tools and techniques assist project managers

and their teams in carrying out scope, time, cost, and quality

management.

• Some popular time management tools and techniques include Gantt charts, network diagrams (sometimes referred to as PERT charts), and critical path analysis.

Additional tools help project managers and teams carry out human

resource, communications, risk, procurement, and integration

management.

Project management software is a tool that can facilitate

management processes in all the knowledge areas.

12

Project Management and Other Disciplines

Much of the knowledge needed to manage projects is

unique to the discipline of project management.

However, project managers must also have knowledge

and experience in general management and must

(7)

13

Managemen Proyek dan Disiplin

Lain

Operations

Semi-permanent charter, organization, and goals Maintains status quo Standard product or service Homogeneous teams Ongoing

Contrast Projects and Operations

Projects

(8)

Integration Management

Cost

Time

Integration

Quality

Summary

Defined key PM concepts Described why PM is needed

Explained difference between projects and operations Identified trends in the PM environment

(9)

Unit 2: Project Life Cycle Models

Upon completion, you will be able to …

List the purpose and types of project life cycle models Distinguish between project and product life cycle Define the role of phase reviews in PM

Apply a model to a hypothetical and a real project

Key Concepts

Project phase: “A collection of logically related project activities usually culminating in the completion of a major deliverable.”

Project life cycle: “Collectively the project phases are known as the project life cycle.”

(10)

Generic Cost and Staffing Life Cycle

Time

Initial Phase

Finish Start

Intermediate Phases (one or more)

Final Phase

Cost and Staffing

Level

Project Life Cycle

Example Phases

Concept and Proposal

Development

Implementation

Termination Verification

Final Phase Intermediate Phases

(11)

Unit 3: Initiating Projects

List the main functions of each PM process group Describe the purpose of the initiation process Identify its inputs and outputs, tools and techniques Develop a sample project charter

Give an example of how process groups can apply to the project as a whole or to a project phase

Process Definition

“A series of actions people take to bring about a desired result.” Types of processes

(12)

Process Groups

Initiating Processes

Planning Processes

Controlling Processes

Executing Processes

Closing Processes

Process Group Overview

To the Planning Processes (Figure 3–5)

Initiating Processes

(13)

Purpose of Initiation Process

1. To commit the organization to a project or phase 2. To set the overall solution direction

3. To define top-level project objectives

4. To secure the necessary approvals and resources 5. Validate alignment with strategic objectives 6. To assign a project manager

Process Output

Input

Tools and Techniques

1. Product description 2. Strategic plan 3. Project selection criteria 4. Historical information

“Initiation is the process of formally recognizing that a new project exists or that an existing project should continue into its next phase.”

1. Project charter

2. Project manager identified/ assigned

3. Constraints 4. Assumptions

1. Project selection methods 2. Expert judgment

(14)

Project Charter

“A document issued by senior management that provides the project manager with the authority to apply

organizational resources to project activities.”

Project Charter Content

Business need Project objectives Project deliverables Assumptions Constraints Key staff

(15)

Exercise 3-1

Project Charter

Using the handout, complete the sample project charter Assume you are the project manager

As an example, choose an anticipated major project assignment

Sample Initiating Activities

Negotiate, write, and refine the project charter Confirm how the project links to the business need Identify management responsibilities

Identify geographic locations involved

Test top-level objectives versus strategic business plans

(16)

Key Outputs of Initiation Process

Project charter

Project manager identified/assigned Other key positions identified/assigned Constraints identified

Assumptions identified

32

(17)

33

Table 5.1. Sample Project

Charter (cont’d)

Unit 4: Planning Projects

Describe the purposes of the planning processes

Identify the inputs and outputs of core planning processes

Describe the function and develop sample planning deliverables such as a scope statement, WBS, and milestone chart

(18)

Planning Process Group

Planning Processes

Executing Processes

Closing Processes

Purpose of Planning Processes

To develop a project plan that: Facilitates later accomplishment* Ensures project wide integration Monitors change effectively

Provides decision support information to stakeholders Can be updated by iterative planning activities

(19)

Core Processes

4.1 Project Plan Development 7.3 Cost Budgeting 6.3 Activity Duration Estimating 6.2 Activity Sequencing 7.1 Resource Planning 5.3 Scope Definition 6.1 Activity Definition 5.2 Scope Planning 6.4 Schedule Development 7.2 Cost Estimating To the Executing Processes (Figure 3–6) From the Initiating Processes (Figure 3–4) From the Controlling Processes (Figure 3–7)

Facilitating Processes

9.1 Organizational Planning 9.2 Staff Acquisition 12.1 Procurement Planning 12.2 Solicitation Planning 8.1 Quality Planning 10.1 Communications Planning 11.1 Risk Identification 11.2 Risk Quantification 11.3 Risk Response Development 38 Copyright © 1999 Project Management Institute, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Process Output

Input

1. Product description 2. Project charter 3. Constraints 4. Assumptions

"… the process of developing a written scope statement as the basis for future project decisions including, in particular, the criteria used to determine if the project or phase has been completed successfully.”

1. Scope statement 2. Supporting detail 3. Scope management plan

1. Product analysis 2. Cost/Benefit analysis 3. Alternative identification 4. Expert judgment

Core Planning Processes

(20)

Project Scope Statement Purpose

To provide a general description of the sum of the products and services to be provided by the project

To develop a common understanding of project scope among stakeholders

May make explicit some exclusions that, based on the audience, would be assumed to be part of the project

(21)

41

Scope Definition and the

Project Scope Statement

The preliminary scope statement, project charter, organizational

process assets, and approved change requests provide a basis for

creating the project scope statement.

As time progresses, the scope of a project should become clearer

and more specific.

42

(22)

Tools and Techniques

1. Work breakdown structure templates

2. Decomposition

Input

1. Scope statement 2. Constraints 3. Assumptions 4. Other planning outputs 5. Historical information

“… subdividing the major project deliverables (as identified in the scope statement) into smaller more manageable components … ”

1. Work breakdown structure

Core Planning Processes

Scope Definition

Work Breakdown Structure (WBS)

“A deliverable oriented grouping of project elements which organizes and defines the total scope of the project.

Each descending level represents an increasingly detailed definition of a project component.

(23)

WBS Purpose

To define:

Solution strategy or general approach Implementation tactics

To support more accurate estimates of project duration and cost than can be made at the project level

To provide a basis for estimating project resources: Departmental or subcontractor support

Vendors and their products Services

Any other identifiable resource

(24)

Deliverables and Milestones

• Deliverables

–

Tangible, independent, verifiable work products

–

Reports, presentations, prototypes, etc.

• Milestones

–

Significant events or achievements

–

Acceptance of deliverables or phase completion

–

Cruxes (proof of concepts)

–

Quality control

–

Keeps team focused

Contoh WBS

Level Level Level Level Level Level Level Level Description DescriptionDescription Description 1 11 1 Total Total Total Total Project Project Project Project 2 22 2 Subproject Subproject Subproject Subproject 3 33 3 Category of Category of Category of Category of Work WorkWork Work 4 44 4 Work Work Work Work Package Package Package Package

Work Breakdown Structure Work Breakdown StructureWork Breakdown Structure Work Breakdown Structure

Kolom KolomKolom Kolom Sloof Sloof Sloof Sloof Pondasi PondasiPondasi Pondasi Sitework Sitework Sitework

Sitework BalokBalokBalokBalok PlatPlatPlatPlat

Cor Cor Cor Cor beton beton beton beton Penulangan Penulangan Penulangan Penulangan Galian GalianGalian Galian Pek. Pek. Pek. Pek. Persiapan Persiapan Persiapan Persiapan Mobilisasi/ Mobilisasi/ Mobilisasi/ Mobilisasi/ Demobilisasi Demobilisasi Demobilisasi Demobilisasi Administrasi Administrasi Administrasi

Administrasi Pek. Pek. Pek. Pek.

(25)

Airframe Engine Communication Navigation Fire Control

Test

Services Management_Data Depot_Level Developmental_Test

Supporting

PM Activities Facilities

Engineering Data Intermediate Level Maintenance Operational Test Systems Engineering Management

Equipment Technical_Orders Organizational_Level Construction Mock-ups

Project

Management Training Data

Aircraft System Support Equipment Facilities Test and Evaluation Air Vehicle

This WBS is illustrative only. It is not intended to represent the full project scope of any specific project, nor to imply that this is the only way to organize a WBS on this type of project.

Project Management Project Management

Design Construction

Waste Water Treatment Plant

This WBS is illustrative only. It is not intended to represent the full project scope of any specific project, nor to imply that this is the only way to organize a WBS on this type of project.

Civil Drawings Headworks

Architectural Drawings Aeration Basin

Structural Drawings Effluent Pumping Station

Mechanical Drawings Air Handling Building

HVAC Drawings Sludge Building

(26)

Contoh WBS

51

Contoh WBS Proyek gudang kerangka Besi

Tingkat I Tingkat II Tingkat III

1. Membuat Gambar 1. Gambar Bangunan 2. Instalasi Listrik

1. Gambar bangunan 2. Instalasi listrik 3. Instalasi air 4. Material Tiang 5. Material dinding 6. Material atap 7. Besi beton 8. Adukan

9. Memadatkan tanah 10. Menggali tanah 11. Cor Pondasi 12. Pabrikasi Tiang 13. Pabrikasi kusen 14. Pabrikasi kerangka atap 15. Mendirikan tiang 16. Membuat dinding 17. Pasang kusen 18. Pasang atap 19. Pasang pintu & cat

2. Membeli material 3. Material Bangunan 4. Material pondasi 3. Menyiapkan Lahan 5. Menggali tanah

4. Membuat Pondasi 6. Cor pondasi

5. Pabrikasi (tiang dan kerangka atap)

7. Pabrikasi Tiang 8. Pabrikasi kerangka atap 6. Mendirikan bangunan 9. Mendirikan tiang

10.Membuat dinding 11. Menaikkan atap

(27)

Benefits of the WBS

WBS

Estimates

Schedule

Project Plan

Risk and Contingency

Plans

Progress Reports Activity List

Risk Control Project

Control Change Control Communication

Control

(28)

Validate Your WBS

All major elements been identified at top level? Decomposed into measurable components? Lower level(s) items necessary? All inclusive? Would stakeholders agree WBS is satisfactory?

Can elements be scheduled, budgeted, and assigned to a unit that will accept responsibility?

Too much or too little visibility and control ? Can status reports be generated at all levels?

Using the WBS to Estimate Cost

Project manager establishes work requirements by defining the What—“shalls” and “wills”

When—sequence Why—dependencies

Functional managers estimate cost by determining How—equipment and methods

(29)

Exercise 4-2

Work Breakdown Structure

Using “Post-it® Notes,” construct a WBS for your project or subproject Apply the WBS validation criteria

Discuss any learning or insights with a classmate, including any learning from applying the WBS test criteria

Brainstorming all

work to be done

and then grouping

into a hierarchy.

Bottom Up

Using a

general-to-specific structure to

progressively detail

the work.

Top Down

Pendekatan dalam menyusun WBS

(30)

Process Output

Input

1. WBS

2. Scope statement 3. Historical information 4. Constraints 5. Assumptions

“Identifying the specific activities that must be performed to produce the various project deliverables.”

1. Activity list 2. Supporting detail 3. WBS updates

1. Decomposition 2. Templates

Core Planning Processes

Activity Definition

Process Output

Input

1. Activity list 2. Product description 3. External dependencies 4. Mandatory dependencies 5. Discretionary dependencies 6. Constraints

7. Assumptions

“… identifying and documenting interactivity dependencies.”

1. Project network 2. Activity list updates

1. Precedence diagramming method

2. Arrow diagramming method 3. Conditional diagramming

method 4. Network templates

Core Planning Processes

(31)

Learning Objectives – Chapter 12

Project scheduling terminologies

Precedence relationship

Draw activity-on-Arrow (AOA) diagram

Calculate earliest start time, earliest finish time, latest start

time, & latest finish time

Calculate slack time

Find critical path

Analysis of possible delays

Project Scheduling

Terminologies

A

project

is a collection of tasks that must be

completed in minimum time or at minimal cost.

Activity

&

Activity duration

Precedence relationship

, predecessor,

successor

Activity-On-Node (

AON

) diagram v.s. Activity-On-Arc

(AOA) diagram

PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique):

stochastic

(32)

Identifying precedence

relationships

Sequencing activities

Determining activity times

& costs

Estimating material &

worker requirements

Determining critical

activities

© 1995 Corel Corp.

Project Scheduling

Purposes of Project Scheduling

Shows the relationship of each activity to others and to the

project as a whole

Identifies the precedence relationships among activities

Encourages the setting of realistic time and cost estimates

for each activity

(33)

Gantt chart

Critical Path Method (CPM)

Program Evaluation & Review Technique (PERT)

© 1984-1994 T/Maker Co.

Project Scheduling Techniques

J

F

M

A

M

J

Time Period

Activity

Design

Build

Test

(34)

Figure 16.4

Project Control Reports

Detailed cost breakdowns for each task Total program labor curves

Cost distribution tables

Functional cost and hour summaries Raw materials and expenditure forecasts Variance reports

(35)

Network techniques Developed in 1950’s

•

CPM by DuPont for chemical plants

•

PERT by U.S. Navy for Polaris missile

Consider precedence relationships and interdependencies Each uses a different estimate of activity times

PERT and CPM

Questions Which May Be Addressed by

PERT & CPM

♦

Is the project on schedule, ahead of schedule,

or behind schedule?

♦

Is the project over or under cost budget?

♦

Are there enough resources available to finish

the project on time?

♦

If the project must be finished in less than the

(36)

The Six Steps Common to PERT & CPM

Define the project and all of its significant activities or

tasks

Develop relationships among the activities. (Decide

which activities must precede and which must follow

others.)

Draw the network connecting all of the activities

Assign time and cost estimates to each activity

Compute the longest time path through the network.

This is called the critical path

Use the network to help plan, schedule, monitor, and

control the project

22

4

4 Years

Years

Activity (Arrow)

Register

Receive diploma

Project: Obtain a college degree (B.S.)

Event (Node)

Attend class,

study etc.

11

Event (Node)

(37)

11

A

B

A & B can occur

concurrently

22

33

Activity Relationships

11

44

22

33

A

B

C

A must be done before

C & D can begin

D

(38)

Activities are defined by beginning & ending events

•

Example: Activity 2-3

Every activity must have unique pair of beginning & ending events

•

Otherwise, computer programs get confused

Dummy activities maintain precedence

•

Consume no time or resources

Dummy Activities

11

33

44

11--22

22--33

Incorrect

11

22

44

33

55

22

22--33

33--44

11--22

22--33

22--44

44--55

33--4: Dummy

4: Dummy

activity

Correct

(39)

77

Milwaukee General Hospital’s Activities and

Predecessors

Activity

Description

Immediate

Predecessors

A

Build internal components

-B

Modify roof and floor

-C

Construct collection stack

A

D

Pour concrete and install frame

A, B

E

Build high-temperature burner

C

F

Install pollution control system

C

G

Install air pollution device

D, E

H

Inspect and test

F, G

78

AON Network for Milwaukee General Hospital

Start

A

B

C

D

F

G

(40)

Example 2

buat network untuk suatu proyek dengan hubungan sebagai berikut:

Activity Immediate predecessors

A

-B

-C B

D A, C

E C

F C

G D,E,F

Network of Seven Activities

1

3

4

2

A

B

C

D

5

E

7

6

F

G

dummy

(41)

Precedence Relationships Chart

Immediate

Estimated

Activity

Predecessor Completion Time

A

None

90

B

A

15

C

B

5

D

G

20

E

D

21

F

A

25

G

C,F

14

H

D

28

I

A

30

J

D,I

45

Objective of the project scheduling: minimize the completion time of the project

Earliest Start Time / Earliest Finish Time

Make a

forward pass

through the network as follows:

•

Evaluate all activities that have no immediate predecessors.

•

The earliest start for such an activity is zero (ES = 0)

•

The earliest finish is the activity duration (EF = Activity

duration)

•

Evaluate ES of the node for which EF of all its immediate

predecessors has been determined.

•

ES = Max (EF of all its immediate predecessors)

•

EF = ES + Activity duration.

•

Repeat this process until all nodes have been evaluated

(42)

Earliest Start / Earliest Finish

A 90 B 15 C 5 F 25 G 14 D 20 E 21 H 28 J 45 90,105 90,115 90,120 105,110 110,124 115,129 129,149 149,170 149,177 120,165 149,194 170 194 B I F C G D E H J 177

194

EARLIEST FINISH

Latest Start Time / Latest Finish Time

Make a backward pass through the network as follows:

•

Evaluate all activities that immediately precede the finish node(s)

•

The latest finish for such an activity is LF = EF of the

project

•

The latest start for such an activity is LS = LF - activity

duration.

•

Evaluate LF of the node for which LS of all its immediate successors

has been determined.

•

LF = Min (LS of all its immediate successors)

•

LS = LF - Activity duration

(43)

Latest Start Time / Latest Finish Time

B F C A I E D

G HH

28 166,194

J

J 45 149,194 E 21 173,194 90,105 90,115 90,120 105,110 115,129 129,149 149,170 149,177 149,194 153,173 194 0,90 D 20 129,149 G 14 115,129 I 30 119,149 C 5 110,115 B 15 95,110 F 25 90, 115 0,90 A 90

Slack Times

•

Slack time is the amount of time an activity can be delayed without

delaying the project completion date,

assuming

no other delays are

taking place in the project.

(44)

Slack/Float Times

Critical activities

must be rigidly

scheduled

Activity

LS - ES

Slack

A

0 -0

0

B

95 - 90

5

C

110 - 105

5

D

119 - 119

0

E

173 - 149

24

F

90 - 90

0

G

115 - 115

0

H

166 - 149

17

I

119 - 90

29

J

149 - 149

0

The Critical Path

The critical path is a set of activities that have no slack The critical activities (activities with 0 slack) form at least one critical path in the network.

A critical path is the longest path in the network. The sum of the completion times for the activities

(45)

The Critical Path

B F C A I E D

G HH

28 166,194

J

J 45 149,194 E 21 173,194 90,105 90,115 90,120 105,110 115,129 129,149 149,170 149,177 149,194 D 20 0,90 129,149 G 14 115,129 I 30 119,149 A 90 C 5 110,115 B 15 95,110 F 25 90, 115 0,90

Possible Delays

We observe two different types of delays:

•

Single delays.

•

Multiple delays.

(46)

Single Delays

A delay of a certain amount in a critical activity, causes the entire project to be delayed by the same amount.

A delay of a certain amount in a non-critical activitywill delay the project by the amount the delay exceedsthe slack time. When the delay is less than the slack, the entire project is not delayed.

Multiple Delays

Multiple delays of non-critical activities

•

Case 1: activities are on different paths

•

Case 2: activities are on the same path, separated by critical

activities.

(47)

Slack/float

Identification

C (8,10)

2 (15,17

)

EARLIEST START TIME

EARLIEST FINISH TIME

LATEST FINISH TIME

LATEST START TIME ACTIVITY

TIME

Types Of Slack

[ 20, 26 ]

[ 24, 30 ]

[ 30, 36 ]

[ 24, 30 ]

(48)

Negative Slack

FORWARD PASS

BACKWARD PASS

CUSTOMER’S

START DATE

FINISH DATE

3

2

4

1

Schedule Compression

Elimination of some parts of the project Addition of more resources

Substitution of less time-consuming components or activities Parallelization of activities

(49)

Schedule Compression

(Continued)

Shortening easiest activities

Shortening activities that are least costly to speed up Shortening activities for which you have more resources Increasing the number of work hours per day

Resource Leveling

Resource leveling is an attempt to eliminate the manpower peaks and valleys by smoothing out the period-to-period resource

(50)

Resource Allocation

Resource allocation (or resource limited planning) is an attempt to find the shortest possible critical path based upon the available or fixed resources. The problem with this approach is that the

employees may not be qualified technically to perform work on more than one activity in a network.

Planning Objectives (Primary)

(51)

Planning Objectives

Studying alternatives Optimum schedules Effective use of resources Communications

Refinement of the estimating process Ease of project control

Ease of time or cost revisions

Planning Objectives

(Limitations)

Calendar completion

Cash or cash flow restrictions Limited resources

(52)

Program Crashing

Costs

110,000 120,000 130,000 140,000 150,000 160,000

P

R

O

G

R

A

M

C

O

S

T

,

$

10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 PROGRAM COMPLETION TIME, WEEKS

CRASH B

CRASH F

CRASH A CRASH E

NORMAL OPERATIONS ALL ACTIVITIES CRASHED

MINIMUM COST TOTAL CRASH

(53)

Time Cost approach

Consider

1.

Float

2.

Slope

3.

Activity Crashing limit

4.

Parallel Critical path

Procedure

1.

Determine Critical path

2.

Activity crashed is one in CP with the lowest slope

3.

caculate cost

4.

do1,2,3 up to get the completion target

105

(54)

Precedence Diagramming Method (PDM)

Aktivitas dinyatakan menggunakan kotak (boxes)

Anak panah menunjukkan hubungan antara

aktivitas-aktivitas

Lebih baik dalam memperlihatkan tipe-tipe ketergantungan

yg berbeda

(55)

109

(56)

111

3 time estimates

•

Optimistic times (

a

)

•

Most-likely time (

m

)

•

Pessimistic time (

b

)

Follow beta distribution

Expected time: t = (a+ 4m+ b)/6 Variance of times: v= [(b-a)/6]2

(57)

Provides activity information

•

Earliest (

ES

) & latest (

LS

) start

•

Earliest (

EF

) & latest (

LF

) finish

•

Slack (

S

): Allowable delay

Identifies critical path

•

Longest

path in network

•

Shortest

time project can be completed

•

Any delay on critical path activities delays project

•

Critical path activities have

0

slack

Critical Path Analysis

Begin at starting event and work forward ES = 0 for starting activities

•

ES is earliest start

EF = ES + Activity time

•

EF is earliest finish

ES = Maximum EF of all predecessors for non-starting activities

(58)

Begin at ending event and work backward LF = Maximum EF for ending activities

•

LF is latest finish; EF is earliest finish

LS = LF - Activity time

•

LS is latest start

LF = Minimum LS of all successors for non-ending activities

Latest Start and Finish Steps

11

44

22

33

Pour

foundation &

frame

3

3 wk.

wk.

3

3 wk.

wk.

4 wk.

2

2 wk.

wk.

6

6 wk.

wk.

Do interior

work

Landscape

Roof

Buy

shrubs etc.

Critical path is longest path: 12 weeks.

(59)

1-2 Fdn & frame

1-3 Buy shrubs

2-3 Roof

2-4 Interior work

3-4 Landscape

44 55 66 77 88 99

11

00

11

22

33

22

11

Activity

Build House Project

Gantt Chart

Earliest Start and Finish

1-2 Fdn & frame

1-3 Buy shrubs

2-3 Roof

2-4 Interior work

3-4 Landscape

44 55 66 77 88 99

11

00

11

22

33

22

11

Activity

Build House Project

(60)

Expected project time (T)

•

Sum of critical path activity times,

t

Project variance (V)

•

Sum of critical path activity

variances,

v

Used to obtain

probability of project

completion!

Project Times

PERT Probability Example

You’re a project planner for

General Dynamics. A

submarine project has an

expected completion time

of

40

weeks, with a

standard deviation

of

5

weeks. What is the

(61)

T

= 40

s = 5

50

X

Normal

Distribution

Z

=

X

-

T

=

-

=

s

50

40

5

2 0

.

m

z

= 0

s

Z

= 1

Z

2.0

Standardized Normal

Distribution

Converting to Standardized Variable

m

z

= 0

s

Z

= 1

Z

2.0

Z

.00

.01

.02

0.0 .50000 .50399 .50798

:

2.0

.97725

.97784 .97831

2.1 .98214 .98257 .98300

Standardized Normal Probability

Table (Portion)

Probabilities in body

.97725

(62)

123

Precedences And Project Activity Times

Immediate Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic EXP Var S.Dev Activity Predecessor Time Time Time TE V σσσσ

a - 10 22 22 20 4 2 b - 20 20 20 20 0 0

c - 4 10 16 10 4 2

d a 2 14 32 15 25 5

e b,c 8 8 20 10 4 2

f b,c 8 14 20 14 4 2

g b,c 4 4 4 4 0 0

h c 2 12 16 11 5.4 2.32

I g,h 6 16 38 18 28.45.33

j d,e 2 8 14 8 4 2

124

The complete network

2 22

2 6666

1 11

1 3333 7777

4 44

4 5555

(63)

125

Figure 8-13 The complete Network

2 22

2 6666

1 11

1 3333 7777

4 44

4 5555

b (20,0) d (15,25) e (10,4) f (14,4) j (8,4) i (18,28.4) g (4,0) h (11,5.4) c (10,4)

CRIT. TIME = 43

EF=20 35 43 24 10 20 a (20,4) 126

Critical Path Analysis (PERT)

Activity LS ES Slacks Critical ?

a 0 0 0 Yes

b 1 0 1

c 4 0 4

d 20 20 0 Yes

e 25 20 5

f 29 20 9

g 21 20 1

h 14 10 4

i 25 24 1

(64)

127

Assume, PM promised to complete the project in the fifty days. What are the chances of meeting that deadline?

Calculate Z, where

Z = (D-S) / √√√√V

Example,

D = 50; S(Scheduled date) = 20+15+8 =43; V = (4+25+4) =33 Z = (50 – 43) / 5.745

= 1.22 standard deviations.

The probability value of Z = 1.22, is 0.888

1.22

128

What deadline are you 95% sure of meeting

Z value associated with 0.95 is 1.645

D = S + 5.745 (1.645) = 43 + 9.45 = 52.45 days

(65)

Figure 16.9

Benefits of PERT/CPM

Useful at many stages of project management Mathematically simple

(66)

Advantages of PERT/CPM

♦

Networks generated provide valuable project

documentation and graphically point out who

is responsible for various project activities

♦

Applicable to a wide variety of projects and

industries

♦

Useful in monitoring not only schedules, but

costs as well

Assumes clearly defined, independent, & stable activities Specified precedence relationships

Activity times (PERT) follow beta distribution

Subjective time estimates Over-emphasis on critical path

(67)

Process Output

Input

1. Project network diagram 2. Activity duration estimates 3. Resource requirements 4. Resource pool description 5. Calendars

6. Constraints 7. Assumptions 8. Leads and lags

“… determining start and finish dates for project activities.”

1. Project schedule 2. Supporting detail

3. Schedule management plan 4. Resource requirements

updates

1. Mathematical analysis 2. Duration compression 3. Simulation

4. Resource leveling heuristics 5. Project management

software

Core Planning Processes

Schedule Development

Key Scheduling Concepts

(68)

Milestone Chart

Event

Subcontracts Signed Specifications Finalized Design Reviewed Subsystem Tested First Unit Delivered Production Plan Completed

Feb

Jan Mar

Data Date

May Jun Jul Aug

Apr

There are many other acceptable ways to display project information on a milestone chart.

Process Output

Input

1. WBS

2. Historical information 3. Scope statement 4. Resource pool description 5. Organizational policies

“… determining what physical resources (people, equipment, materials) and what quantities of each should be used to perform project activities.”

1. Resource requirements

1. Expert judgment 2. Alternatives identification

Core Planning Processes

(69)

Process Output

Input

1. WBS

2. Resource requirements 3. Resource rates 4. Activity duration estimates 5. Historical information 6. Chart of accounts

“… developing an

approximation (estimate of the costs of the resources needed to complete project activities.”

1. Cost estimates 2. Supporting detail 3. Cost management plan

1. Analogous estimating 2. Parametric modeling 3. Bottom-up estimating 4. Computerized tools

Core Planning Processes

Cost Estimating

Process Output

Input

1. Cost estimates 2. WBS

3. Project schedule

“… allocating the overall cost estimates to individual work items in order to establish a cost baseline for measuring project performance.”

1. Cost baseline

1. Analogous estimating 2. Parametric modeling 3. Bottom-up estimating 4. Computerized tools

Core Planning Processes

(70)

Process Output

Input

1. Other planning outputs 2. Historical information 3. Organizational policies 4. Constraints

5. Assumptions

“… taking the results of other planning processes and putting them into a consistent, coherent document.”

1. Project plan 2. Supporting detail

1. Project planning methodology

2. Stakeholder’s skills and knowledge

3. Project management information systems

Core Planning Processes

Project Plan Development

Executing Processes

Planning Processes

Executing Processes

(71)

Purpose

To coordinate, integrate, and manage all resources

Why?

in order to achieve the project objectives

How?

by carrying out the letter and intent of the project plan

While

responding to change and mitigating risks

Executing Processes To the Controlling Processes (Figure 3–7) From the Planning Processes (Figure 3–5) From the Controlling Processes (Figure 3–7) Facilitating Processes 12.3

(72)

Input

Tools and Techniques

1. Project plan 2. Supporting detail 3. Organizational policies 4. Corrective action

“… the primary process for carrying out the project plan.”

1. Work results 2. Change requests

1. General management skills 2. Product skills and knowledge 3. Work authorization system 4. Status review meetings 5. Project management

information system 6. Organizational procedures

Core Execution Process

Project Plan Execution

Facilitating Execution Processes

(73)

Sample Executing Activities

Managing work results and requests for change

Using tools and techniques in project plan implementation

Building effective relationships with vendors and project team members Choosing from potential sellers

Distributing status information in time for stakeholders to act Other?

Unit 6: Controlling Projects

Describe the purposes of the controlling processes

(74)

Planning Processes

Controlling Processes

Executing Processes

Closing Processes

Purpose

To keep the project on track in order to achieve its objectives as outlined in the project plan by:

Monitoring and reporting variances Controlling scope changes

Controlling schedule changes Controlling costs

(75)

To the Planning Processes (Figure 3–5) To the Closing Processes (Figure 3–8) From the Executing Processes (Figure 3–6) Controlling Processes Facilitating Processes 8.3 Quality Control 5.5 Scope Change Control 6.5 Schedule Control 11.4 Risk Response Control 7.4 Cost Control 10.3 Performance Reporting 4.3 Overall Change Control

Overview

Process Output

Input

1. Project plan 2. Work results 3. Other project records

“… collecting and disseminating performance information. This includes status reporting, progress measurements, and forecasting.”

1. Performance reports 2. Change requests

1. Performance reviews 2. Variance analysis 3. Trend analysis 4. Earned value analysis 5. Information distribution

systems

Core Controlling Processes

(76)

Process Output

Input

Core Controlling Processes

Overall Change Control

1. Project plan 2. Performance reports 3. Change requests

1. Change control system 2. Configuration management 3. Performance measurement 4. Additional planning 5. Project management

information systems

1. Project plan updates 2. Corrective action 3. Lessons learned “Overall change control is

concerned with:

(a) influencing the factors which create change to ensure that changes are beneficial, (b) determining that a change

has occurred, and (c) managing the actual change

when and as they occur.”

Facilitating Controlling Processes

Scope change control Quality control Schedule control Cost control

(77)

Process Output

Input

1. Risk management plan 2. Actual risk events 3. Additional risk identification

Facilitating Controlling Processes

Risk Response Control

1. Workarounds

2. Additional risk response development

1. Corrective action 2. Updates to the risk

management plan “… involves executing the Risk

Management Plan in order to respond to risk events over the course of the project.”

Key Cost Concept

Earned Value

A method for measuring project performance

(78)

Controlling Activities

Reporting status versus plan and forecasting Responding to changes in risk

Completing and settling the contract, including resolving of any open items Identifying and reporting schedule slips

Determining whether schedule updates require plan modifications Other?

Unit 7: Closing Projects

Describe the purposes of closing processes

(79)

Closing Processes

Planning Processes

Executing Processes

Closing Processes

Purpose

Formalizing acceptance of the project and bringing it to an orderly end by: Closing the contract

(80)

Overview

Closing Processes

12.6 Contract Close-out

10.4

Administrative Closure From the

Controlling Processes (Figure 3–7)

Input

1. Contract documentation “… involves both product verification (was all work completed correctly and satisfactorily) and administrative close-out (updating of records to reflect final results and archiving of such information for future use.”

1. Contract file

2. Formal acceptance and closure

1. Procurement audits

Core Closing Processes

(81)

Process Output

Input

1. Performance measurement documentation

2. Documentation of the product of the project 3. Other project records

“… verifying and documenting project results to formalize acceptance of the product by the sponsor, client or customer.”

1. Project archives 2. Formal acceptance 3. Lessons learned

1. Performance reporting tools and techniques

Core Closing Process

Administrative Closure

Sample Closing Activities

Ensuring a record of lessons learned is developed, documented, and made available for future projects

Verifying acceptance of products or services Collecting all required project records

Determining if final products meet specifications

Assessing the quality, correctness, and completeness of all formal project acceptance documents

Give performance appraisals and assist in the planned transfer of personnel to other projects or positions

(82)

Functional Organization

(Black boxes represent staff engaged in project activities.)

Chief

Executive ProjectCoordination

Functional Manager

Staff

Staff Staff

Functional Organization

Discussion Question

(83)

Functional Organization

Potential Advantages

Clear reporting relationships Highly specialized expertise Homogeneous group

Drive for technical excellence

Functional Organization

Potential Issues

(84)

Strong Matrix

Functional Manager

Manager of Project Managers

Staff

Staff Staff

Staff

Project Manager

Project Manager Project Manager

Project Coordination

(Black boxes represent staff engaged in project activities.)

Chief Executive

(85)

Projectized Organization

Discussion Question

Based on your experience, what potential advantages and disadvantage does this type of organizational approach foster?

An Example of Project Org.

General Manager

Project A

Manager

Project B

Manager

Project C

Manager

(86)

Project-Based Organization

Potential Advantages

Strong project manager role Full-time administrative staff Clear accountability

Fosters co-location Improved focus

Cost and performance tracking Decision-making

Customer relationships Common processes

Project-Based Organization

Potential Issues

Lessening of employee’s “profession” identity Reduced focus on technical competence Leadership by the nontechnically skilled Focus on administrative work versus technical Devaluing of functional managers

(87)