51 Lampiran 1 Hasil regresi awal
Dependent Variable: Y Method: Least Squares Date: 11/24/13 Time: 18:54 Sample: 1994 2012
Included observations: 19
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 9.75E+09 2.67E+09 3.652353 0.0029
PEMILU -1.09E+08 1.74E+09 -0.062713 0.9509
GDP 7.71E-08 4.96E-08 1.554747 0.1440
GNP -3.48E-10 1.08E-10 -3.228078 0.0066
KURS -456375.8 310315.2 -1.470685 0.1652
WAGE 6094.482 3153.201 1.932792 0.0753
R-squared 0.867419 Mean dependent var 8.75E+09
Adjusted R-squared 0.816426 S.D. dependent var 5.83E+09
S.E. of regression 2.50E+09 Akaike info criterion 46.36662
Sum squared resid 8.11E+19 Schwarz criterion 46.66486
Log likelihood -434.4829 Hannan-Quinn criter. 46.41709
F-statistic 17.01058 Durbin-Watson stat 1.870916
52 Lampiran 2 Uji Jarque Bera awal
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
-4.0e+09 -2.0e+09 0.00000 2.0e+09 4.0e+09
Series: Residuals
Sample 1994 2012
Observations 19
Mean
2.11e-06
Median
-2.06e+08
Maximum
4.16e+09
Minimum
-3.36e+09
Std. Dev.
2.12e+09
Skewness 0.316324
Kurtosis
2.388875
Jarque-Bera 0.612527
Probability
0.736193
53 Lampiran 3 Hasil LM test awal
Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test:
F-statistic 4.515489 Prob. F(2,11) 0.0370
Obs*R-squared 8.566161 Prob. Chi-Square(2) 0.0138
Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID Method: Least Squares Date: 11/27/13 Time: 07:26 Sample: 1994 2012
Included observations: 19
Presample missing value lagged residuals set to zero.
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
PEMILU -2.46E+09 1.68E+09 -1.465984 0.1706
GDP -5.21E-10 4.00E-08 -0.013038 0.9898 GNP -2.20E-11 9.33E-11 -0.235487 0.8182 KURS 262346.5 270856.9 0.968580 0.3536 WAGE -2713.882 2710.066 -1.001408 0.3381 C 1.82E+08 2.16E+09 0.084393 0.9343 RESID(-1) -0.119715 0.288939 -0.414326 0.6866 RESID(-2) -0.950382 0.317825 -2.990264 0.0123
R-squared 0.450851 Mean dependent var 1.20E-06
Adjusted R-squared 0.101392 S.D. dependent var 2.12E+09 S.E. of regression 2.01E+09 Akaike info criterion 45.97776 Sum squared resid 4.45E+19 Schwarz criterion 46.37542 Log likelihood -428.7887 Hannan-Quinn criter. 46.04506
F-statistic 1.290140 Durbin-Watson stat 1.892073
Prob(F-statistic) 0.338524
54 Lampiran 4 Hasil Uji white awal
Heteroskedasticity Test: White
F-statistic 1.247083 Prob. F(5,13) 0.3430
Obs*R-squared 6.159101 Prob. Chi-Square(5) 0.2910
Scaled explained SS 2.002304 Prob. Chi-Square(5) 0.8488
Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID^2 Method: Least Squares Date: 11/27/13 Time: 07:23 Sample: 1994 2012
Included observations: 19
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 7.01E+18 3.67E+18 1.910619 0.0784
PEMILU^2 -4.04E+18 3.33E+18 -1.210697 0.2476
GDP^2 -3.66E-16 1.28E-15 -0.284738 0.7803
GNP^2 -8.85E-21 1.13E-20 -0.782691 0.4478
KURS^2 -2.61E+10 3.90E+10 -0.670027 0.5146
WAGE^2 3479740. 4709034. 0.738950 0.4731
R-squared 0.324163 Mean dependent var 4.27E+18
Adjusted R-squared 0.064226 S.D. dependent var 5.17E+18
S.E. of regression 5.00E+18 Akaike info criterion 89.20047
Sum squared resid 3.25E+38 Schwarz criterion 89.49871
Log likelihood -841.4045 Hannan-Quinn criter. 89.25094
F-statistic 1.247083 Durbin-Watson stat 2.801399
55 Lampiran 5 Hasil Regresi baru
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 8.81E+09 2.57E+09 3.425419 0.0050 PP 4.20E+09 1.70E+09 2.474610 0.0292 GDP 1.26E-07 4.86E-08 2.588218 0.0237 GNP -2.66E-10 1.04E-10 -2.561175 0.0249 KURS -776509.2 304995.8 -2.545966 0.0257 UMR 8090.080 3089.860 2.618268 0.0225
R-squared 0.881526 Mean dependent var 9.02E+09
Adjusted R-squared 0.832162 S.D. dependent var 5.87E+09 S.E. of regression 2.40E+09 Akaike info criterion 46.29958 Sum squared resid 6.93E+19 Schwarz criterion 46.59638 Log likelihood -410.6963 Hannan-Quinn criter. 46.34051
F-statistic 17.85769 Durbin-Watson stat 1.967978
56 Lampiran 6 Jarque Bera baru
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
-4.0e+09 -2.0e+09 0.00000 2.0e+09 4.0e+09
Series: Residuals
Sample 1994 2011
Observations 18
Mean
-8.48e-07
Median
-28628589
Maximum
3.78e+09
Minimum
-4.19e+09
Std. Dev.
2.02e+09
Skewness -0.324870
Kurtosis
2.918201
Jarque-Bera 0.321639
Probability
0.851446
57 Lampiran 7 Hasil LM test baru
Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test:
F-statistic 1.591543 Prob. F(2,10) 0.2511
Obs*R-squared 4.346140 Prob. Chi-Square(2) 0.1138
Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID Method: Least Squares Date: 12/05/13 Time: 00:01 Sample: 1994 2011
Included observations: 18
Presample missing value lagged residuals set to zero.
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 1.43E+09 2.58E+09 0.555331 0.5909 PP -1.84E+08 1.62E+09 -0.113393 0.9120 GDP -1.18E-08 5.47E-08 -0.215141 0.8340 GNP -4.85E-11 1.05E-10 -0.464075 0.6525 KURS -87667.95 297196.2 -0.294983 0.7740 UMR 73.67190 3441.285 0.021408 0.9833 RESID(-1) -0.084434 0.365480 -0.231023 0.8220 RESID(-2) -0.545250 0.306862 -1.776857 0.1060
R-squared 0.241452 Mean dependent var -8.48E-07
Adjusted R-squared -0.289531 S.D. dependent var 2.02E+09 S.E. of regression 2.29E+09 Akaike info criterion 46.24546 Sum squared resid 5.26E+19 Schwarz criterion 46.64118 Log likelihood -408.2091 Hannan-Quinn criter. 46.30002
F-statistic 0.454726 Durbin-Watson stat 2.199277
58 Lampiran 8 Uji white baru
Heteroskedasticity Test: White
F-statistic 0.724182 Prob. F(5,12) 0.6182
Obs*R-squared 4.172383 Prob. Chi-Square(5) 0.5249
59 Lampiran 9: Intruksi presiden
INSTRUKSI PRESIDEN REPUBLIK INDONESIA NOMOR 3 TAHUN 2006
TENTANG
PAKET KEBIJAKAN PERBAIKAN IKLIM INVESTASI PRESIDEN REPUBLIK INDONESIA
Dalam rangka memperbaiki iklim investasi untuk meningkatkan pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia, dipandang perlu mengeluarkan Instruksi Presiden tentang Paket Kebijakan Perbaikan Iklim Investasi:
Kepada :
1. Menteri Koordinator Bidang Perekonomian; 2. Menteri Keuangan;
3. Menteri Perdagangan; 4. Menteri Dalam Negeri;
5. Menteri Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral; 6. Menteri Perhubungan;
7. Menteri Hukum dan Hak Azasi Manusia; 8. Menteri Perindustrian;
9. Menteri Komunikasi dan Informatika; 10. Menteri Tenaga Kerja dan Transmigrasi; 11. Menteri Kesehatan;
12. Menteri Kelautan dan Perikanan;
13. Menteri Negara Perencanaan Pembangunan Nasional/Kepala Bappenas;
60
15. Menteri Negara Lingkungan Hidup; 16. Menteri Sekretaris Negara;
17. Sekretaris Kabinet; 18. Jaksa Agung;
19. Panglima Tentara Nasional Indonesia; 20. Kepala Robudi Musa Sitinjak, FEUI, 2011 21. Kepala Kepolisian Negara Republik Indonesia; 22. Kepala Badan Koordinasi Penanaman Modal; 23. Kepala Badan Pertanahan Nasional;
24. Para Gubernur; 25. Para Bupati/Walikota. Untuk :
PERTAMA: Mengambil langkah-langkah yang diperlukan sesuai tugas, fungsi dan kewenangan masing-masing, dalam rangka pelaksanaan Paket Kebijakan Perbaikan Iklim Investasi guna menciptakan iklim investasi yang lebih kondusif.
KEDUA: Dalam mengambil langkah-langkah sebagaimana dimaksud dalam Diktum PERTAMA, berpedoman kepada program-program sebagaimana tercantum dalam lampiran Instruksi Presiden ini. KETIGA: Menteri Koordinator Bidang Perekonomian mengkoordinasikan
kegiatan yang dilaksanakan oleh para Menteri/Kepala Lembaga Pemerintah Non Departemen.
KEEMPAT: Menteri Koordinator Bidang Perekonomian:
1. Memantau pelaksanaan Instruksi Presiden ini dan melaporkan secara berkala kepada Presiden;
2. Membentuk Tim Pemantau, yang diketuai oleh Staf Khusus Menteri Koordinator Bidang Perekonomian Urusan Pemantauan Kebijakan Ekonomi dan sebagai wakil ketua adalah Deputi Sekretaris Kabinet Bidang
61
Hukum dan Direktur Jenderal Otonomi Daerah, Departemen Dalam Negeri;
3. Mengatur tugas, keanggotaan, susunan organisasi, tata kerja dan kesekretariatan Tim Pemantau.
KELIMA: Melaksanakan Instruksi Presiden ini dengan penuh tanggung jawab.
Instruksi Presiden ini mulai berlaku pada tanggal dikeluarkan. Dikeluarkan di Jakarta pada tanggal 27 Pebruari 2006
PRESIDEN REPUBLIK INDONESIA, ttd
61 Lampiran 10 Data penelitian
TahunTah
PMA ($ USD)
Pemilu GDP ($ USD) GNP ($ USD)
KURS tethadap
dollar UMR DKI JKT
1994 $3.771.200.000,00 0 $190.594.090.909,09 $155.307.136.363.636,00 IDR 2.200,00 IDR 31.290,00 1995 $6.698.400.000,00 0 $196.929.809.358,75 $161.158.968.804.159,00 IDR 2.308,00 IDR 36.820,00 1996 $4.628.200.000,00 0 $205.308.854.385,23 $168.852.832.563.995,00 IDR 2.383,00 IDR 40.740,00 1997 $3.473.400.000,00 0 $128.414.389.571,32 $104.733.767.861.619,00 IDR 3.989,00 IDR 135.353,00 1998 $4.685.700.000,00 1 $95.446.000.000,00 $30.058.623.069.623,00 IDR 11.591,00 IDR 153.971,00 1999 $8.229.900.000,00 1 $140.001.000.000,00 $50.339.802.816.901,40 IDR 7.100,00 IDR 179.528,00 2000 $9.877.400.000,00 0 $150.196.000.000,00 $38.882.084.418.968,20 IDR 9.595,00 IDR 344.257,00 2001 $3.509.400.000,00 1 $141.255.000.000,00 $134.253.924.914.676,00 IDR 10.298,00 IDR 426.257,00 2002 $3.082.600.000,00 0 $172.975.000.000,00 $160.212.995.911.150,00 IDR 9.318,00 IDR 591.266,00 2003 $5.445.300.000,00 0 $234.772.458.818,10 $145.803.167.641.326,00 IDR 8.573,00 IDR 631.554,00 2004 $4.572.700.000,00 1 $256.836.883.304,55 $153.566.082.042.288,00 IDR 8.934,00 IDR 671.550,00 2005 $8.911.000.000,00 0 $285.868.610.016,59 $167.169.318.413.021,00 IDR 9.710,00 IDR 711.843,00 2006 $5.991.700.000,00 0 $364.570.525.997,05 $188.174.217.391.304,00 IDR 9.166,00 IDR 819.100,00 2007 $10.341.400.000,00 0 $432.216.737.774,86 $202.669.994.520.548,00 IDR 9.136,00 IDR 900.560,00 2008 $14.871.400.000,00 0 $510.244.548.959,97 $216.480.000.000.000,00 IDR 9.676,00 IDR 972.604,00 2009 $10.815.200.000,00 1 $539.579.959.052,70 $226.760.000.000.000,00 IDR 10.398,00 IDR 1.069.865,00 2010 $13.771.000.000,00 0 $709.266.023.255,22 $292.540.000.000.000,00 IDR 9.084,00 IDR 1.118.009,00 2011 $18.906.000.000,00 0 $846.483.465.279,18 $344.190.000.000.000,00 IDR 8.779,00 IDR 1.290.000,00 2012 $24.600.000.000,00 0 $878.192.879.854,37 $356.260.000.000.000,00 IDR 9.380,00 IDR 1.529.150,00
62 Lampiran 11 data setelah di lakukan Lag
Tahun
PMA ($ USD) Tahun
Pemilu GDP ($ USD) GNP ($ USD)
KURS tethadap dollar UMR DKI JKT 1995 $6.698.400.000,00 1994 0 $190.594.090.909,09 $155.307.136.363.636,00 IDR 2.200,00 IDR 31.290,00 1996 $4.628.200.000,00 1995 0 $196.929.809.358,75 $161.158.968.804.159,00 IDR 2.308,00 IDR 36.820,00 1997 $3.473.400.000,00 1996 0 $205.308.854.385,23 $168.852.832.563.995,00 IDR 2.383,00 IDR 40.740,00 1998 $4.685.700.000,00 1997 0 $128.414.389.571,32 $104.733.767.861.619,00 IDR 3.989,00 IDR 135.353,00 1999 $8.229.900.000,00 1998 1 $95.446.000.000,00 $30.058.623.069.623,00 IDR 11.591,00 IDR 153.971,00 2000 $9.877.400.000,00 1999 1 $140.001.000.000,00 $50.339.802.816.901,40 IDR 7.100,00 IDR 179.528,00 2001 $3.509.400.000,00 2000 0 $150.196.000.000,00 $38.882.084.418.968,20 IDR 9.595,00 IDR 344.257,00 2002 $3.082.600.000,00 2001 1 $141.255.000.000,00 $134.253.924.914.676,00 IDR 10.298,00 IDR 426.257,00 2003 $5.445.300.000,00 2002 0 $172.975.000.000,00 $160.212.995.911.150,00 IDR 9.318,00 IDR 591.266,00 2004 $4.572.700.000,00 2003 0 $234.772.458.818,10 $145.803.167.641.326,00 IDR 8.573,00 IDR 631.554,00 2005 $8.911.000.000,00 2004 1 $256.836.883.304,55 $153.566.082.042.288,00 IDR 8.934,00 IDR 671.550,00
63 2006 $5.991.700.000,00 2005 0 $285.868.610.016,59 $167.169.318.413.021,00 IDR 9.710,00 IDR 711.843,00 2007 $10.341.400.000,00 2006 0 $364.570.525.997,05 $188.174.217.391.304,00 IDR 9.166,00 IDR 819.100,00 2008 $14.871.400.000,00 2007 0 $432.216.737.774,86 $202.669.994.520.548,00 IDR 9.136,00 IDR 900.560,00 2009 $10.815.200.000,00 2008 0 $510.244.548.959,97 $216.480.000.000.000,00 IDR 9.676,00 IDR 972.604,00 2010 $13.771.000.000,00 2009 1 $539.579.959.052,70 $226.760.000.000.000,00 IDR 10.398,00 IDR 1.069.865,00 2011 $18.906.000.000,00 2010 0 $709.266.023.255,22 $292.540.000.000.000,00 IDR 9.084,00 IDR 1.118.009,00 2012 $24.600.000.000,00 2011 0 $846.483.465.279,18 $344.190.000.000.000,00 IDR 8.779,00 IDR 1.290.000,00
