FAKTOR MAKRO EKONOMI DAN INDEKS HARGA SAHAM GABUNGAN

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(1)JOURNAL of RESEARCH in ECONOMICS and MANAGEMENT (Jurnal Riset Ekonomi dan Manajemen). Volume 16, No. 1, Januari – Juni (Semester I) 2016, Halaman 1-14. FAKTOR MAKRO EKONOMI DAN INDEKS HARGA SAHAM GABUNGAN. Rohmad Fuad Armansyah STIE Perbanas Surabaya. ABSTRACT required in the economic development of a country. Indonesia’s capital markets that began operating ! government took steps to make the capital market as a distributor of funds and investments equivalent to bank and non-bank institutions. Stock price " # of the capital market are closely related to several factors, which may consist of a factor derived from the company’s internal and external. This study tried to examine the factors that affect stock price index focuses on macro economic factors. In this study the authors wanted to determine the effect of the money supply, interest rates on deposits, and dollar exchange rates simultaneously and partially on the Composite Index in Indonesian capital market. Besides that, the authors also wanted to know that among the factors mentioned above, there are some factors dominantly affecting the Composite Stock Price Index. The approach used in this study is quantitative approach, because the existing data in the form of numbers are arranged in a list. The analysis method used in this study is the method of statistical analysis by multiple linear regression using SPSS version 16. Population and sample used in this study are all companies listed on the Indonesian stock exchange by looking at the composite stock price index. The results of this study indicate that the interest rate of deposits, money supply, and the dollar exchange rate which # $ " change and development of the Composite Stock Price Index and the money supply, are dominant "$ $ # Composite Stock Price Index. Informasi Artikel Riwayat Artikel

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(5) Kata Kunci Composite stock price index, Macro economic, DOI jrem. PENDAHULUAN

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(691) JOURNAL of RESEARCH in ECONOMICS and MANAGEMENT (Jurnal Riset Ekonomi dan Manajemen). Volume 16, No. 1, Januari – Juni (Semester I) 2016, Halaman 1-14. - 2 Dasar-dasar Teori Portofolio dan Analisis Sekuritas Edisi Kedua;Penerbit 3 B Q O;8* O %# - % Metode Penelitian Bisnis* ! B

(692) )!* 0 - %" > Pengantar Pengetahuan Pasar Modal Edisi Ketiga* ! 3 B Q O;8* O %# LAMPIRAN Hasil Perhitungan Regresi Descriptive Statistics IHSG Suku Bunga Deposito Jumlah Uang Beredar Nilai Tukar Dollar. Mean 663.0813 10.5454 207794.0 9354.2131. Std. Deviation 274.4224 3.7457 41100.6476 763.8895. N 61 61 61 61. Correlations. Pearson Correlation. Sig. (1-tailed). N. IHSG Suku Bunga Deposito Jumlah Uang Beredar Nilai Tukar Dollar IHSG Suku Bunga Deposito Jumlah Uang Beredar Nilai Tukar Dollar IHSG Suku Bunga Deposito Jumlah Uang Beredar Nilai Tukar Dollar. IHSG 1.000 -.681 .945 .004 . .000 .000 .487 61 61 61 61. Suku Bunga Deposito -.681 1.000 -.729 .398 .000 . .000 .001 61 61 61 61. Jumlah Uang Beredar .945 -.729 1.000 -.101 .000 .000 . .219 61 61 61 61. Nilai Tukar Dollar .004 .398 -.101 1.000 .487 .001 .219 . 61 61 61 61. Model Summaryb Model 1. R R Square .951a .905. Adjusted R Square .900. Std. Error of the Estimate 86.7014. Durbin-W atson .536. a. Predictors: (Constant), Nilai Tukar Dollar, Jumlah Uang Beredar, Suku Bunga Deposito b. Dependent Variable: IHSG. Coefficientsa. Model 1. (Constant) Suku Bunga Deposito Jumlah Uang Beredar Nilai Tukar Dollar. Unstandardized Coefficients B Std. Error -957.962 160.567 -5.123 4.964 6.054E-03 .000 4.458E-02 .017. Standardi zed Coefficien ts Beta -.070 .907 .124. t -5.966 -1.032 14.515 2.661. a. Dependent Variable: IHSG. 11. Sig. .000 .306 .000 .010. Zero-order -.681 .945 .004. Correlations Partial -.135 .887 .332. Part -.042 .592 .109. Collinearity Statistics Tolerance VIF .362 .426 .765. 2.760 2.346 1.307.

(693) Rohmad Fuad Armansyah : (# # # # . Coefficient Correlationsa Model 1. Correlations. Covariances. Nilai Tukar Dollar Jumlah Uang Beredar Suku Bunga Deposito Nilai Tukar Dollar Jumlah Uang Beredar Suku Bunga Deposito. Nilai Tukar Dollar 1.000 -.301 -.477 2.807E-04 -2.104E-06 -3.963E-02. Jumlah Uang Beredar -.301 1.000 .755 -2.104E-06 1.740E-07 1.562E-03. Suku Bunga Deposito -.477 .755 1.000 -3.963E-02 1.562E-03 24.643. a. Dependent Variable: IHSG. Residuals Statisticsa Predicted Value Std. Predicted Value Standard Error of Predicted Value Adjusted Predicted Value Residual Std. Residual Stud. Residual Deleted Residual Stud. Deleted Residual Mahal. Distance Cook's Distance Centered Leverage Value. Minimum 274.7298 -1.487. Maximum 1175.3900 1.962. Mean 663.0813 .000. Std. Deviation 261.0870 1.000. 14.4322. 40.5133. 21.4374. 5.8242. 61. 264.4635 -175.8915 -2.029 -2.069 -182.9674 -2.133 .679 .000 .011. 1194.0498 160.2449 1.848 1.926 173.9831 1.974 12.117 .079 .202. 662.9301 -8.76E-14 .000 .001 .1513 .002 2.951 .016 .049. 261.3040 84.5060 .975 1.004 89.7345 1.013 2.468 .018 .041. 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61. a. Dependent Variable: IHSG Normal P-P Plot of Regression Standardized Residual. Dependent Variable: IHSG 1.00. Expected Cum Prob. .75. .50. .25. 0.00 0.00. .25. .50. Observed Cum Prob. . .75. 1.00. N 61 61.

(694) JOURNAL of RESEARCH in ECONOMICS and MANAGEMENT (Jurnal Riset Ekonomi dan Manajemen). Volume 16, No. 1, Januari – Juni (Semester I) 2016, Halaman 1-14. Scatterplot Dependent Variable: IHSG Regression Studentized Residual. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3 -2.0. -1.5. -1.0. -.5. 0.0. .5. 1.0. 1.5. 2.0. Regression Standardized Predicted Value. Partial Regression Plot Dependent Variable: IHSG 200. 100. 0. IHSG. -100. -200 -6. -4. -2. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. Suku Bunga Deposito. Partial Regression Plot Dependent Variable: IHSG 800. 600. 400. 200. IHSG. 0. -200 -400 -60000 -40000 -20000. 0. 20000. Jumlah Uang Beredar. 13. 40000. 60000. 80000. 100000.

(695) Rohmad Fuad Armansyah : (# # # # . Partial Regression Plot Dependent Variable: IHSG 200. 100. 0. -100. IHSG. -200. -300 -2000. -1000. 0. 1000. 2000. 3000. Nilai Tukar Dollar. .

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