Fixed Income Daily Notes
Global Market Update
At Tuesday, August 07, US 10-year treasury yield rose to 2.97% after asset shifting toward stock market. Majority of global benchmark bond yield was also move upward, indicated by 10-years UK gilt and German bund that rose to 1.32% and 0.41% respectively.
Yield US Treasury pada hari Selasa, 07 Agustus 2018
ditutup naik ke level 2,97% akibat adanya kecenderungan perpindahan aset investor ke pasar
saham akibat adanya kenaikan secara umum di pasar saham AS. Senada dengan kondisi di pasar obligasi AS, dari pasar obligasi global, yield acuan global sebagian besar juga ditutup mengalami kenaikan, terlihat dari yield 10 tahun UK Gilt dan German Bund yang ditutup naik ke level 1,32% dan 0,41%. exchange reserves which have been decreasing 6 month in a row is a signal for government to im-plement policy related to foreign exchange reserves.
Today, Government bond prices on the secondary market are likely to weaken because of higher US 10-years treasury yield. Rupiah will be ranging from IDR 14,429—14,463 and yield of 10 year benchmark bond (FR0064) will be ranging from 7.74% - 7.77%.
Posisi cadangan devisa Indonesia pada bulan Juli kembali mengalami penurunan sebesar US$ 1,5 miliar menjadi US$ 118,3 miliar. Penurunan ini disebabkan oleh intervensi Bank Indonesia untuk stabilisasi nilai Rupiah pada Bulan Juli. Posisi cadangan devisa saat ini menurut Bank Indonesia (BI), masih setara dengan 6,7 bulan pembiayaan impor dan pembayaran utang luar negeri Indonesia, di atas standar kecukupan internasional, 3 bulan impor. Meskipun demikian, penurunan ini merupakan penurunan yang keenam kalinya secara berturut-turut sejak Februari 2018, dan ini merupakan sinyal penting bagi pemerintah Indonesia untuk melakukan intervensi kebijakan terkait cadangan devisa.
Hari ini, pergerakan harga SBN secara umum di pasar sekunder diprediksi cenderung melemah akibat naiknya yield AS. Nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar AS diprediksi bergerak pada kisaran Rp14.429 – Rp14.463 sedangkan yield benchmark 10 tahun (FR0064) pada perdagangan hari ini diperkirakan bergerak di rentang 7,74% -
Maturities (Year) 7-Aug (-1 day) (-1 week) (-1 month)
Volume Volume
(IDR bn) (IDR bn)
FR0074 94.80 7.08 1663 BFIN04BCN1 AA-(idn) 100.00 6.42 480 FR0063 92.30 7.58 1337 BEXI04ACN1 idAAA 99.00 7.90 90 PBS016 98.11 7.52 1272 BNII02ACN1 idAAA 98.75 8.38 90 FR0065 87.60 8.08 973 MYOR01CN3 idAA 95.95 7.53 49 FR0064 89.40 7.69 903 BPFI02CN1 idBBB 100.00 8.06 40 FR0061 98.37 5.00 767 BNGA02SB AA(idn) 104.75 7.72 27 FR0070 102.49 7.81 717 BEXI03ACN6 idAAA 96.00 8.12 25 FR0072 100.35 8.21 644 MDLN01BCN1 idA 102.35 8.91 25 FR0075 94.75 8.03 507 PNMP02BCN1 idA 100.55 7.44 21 FR0071 107.25 7.97 493 AKRA01B idAA- 100.95 6.84 20
Global Stock Marketss Last Price Chg (bps) % Chg % YTD Global Bonds 7-Aug
Indonesia (JCI) 6091 -9.88 -0.16% -4.16% 7-Aug (-1 day) (-1 week) (- 1 month) Malaysia (KLCI) 1791 11.34 0.64% -0.32% Fed Fund Rate & US T-Bonds Yield
Thailand (SET) 1707 11.02 0.65% -2.65% Fed Fund Rate 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 Singapore (STI) 3340 54.66 1.66% -1.8% 2-Year 2.55 2.53 2.51 2.49 Hang Seng 28249 429.32 1.54% -5.6% 5-Year 2.73 2.72 2.72 2.76 Nikkei 225 22663 155.42 0.69% -0.45% 10-Year 2.97 2.94 2.96 2.85 Shanghai 2779 74.22 2.74% -15.96% 30-Year 2.95 2.96 2.97 3.07 Dow Jones (DJIA) 25629 126.73 0.50% 3.68% 10-Year Government Bond Yield
London (FTSE 100) 7718 54.70 0.71% 0.40% UK 1.32 1.30 1.33 1.30 DAX 12648 49.98 0.40% -2.1% Germany 0.41 0.39 0.44 0.32
France 0.73 0.71 0.73 0.65
FX Rate 7-Aug China 3.49 3.46 3.48 3.54
7-Aug (-1 day) (-1 week) Japan 0.11 0.10 0.06 0.04
USD/IDR 14,429 14,486 14,407 Korea 2.73 2.73 2.73 2.73 GBP/USD 1.294 1.294 1.313 Thailand 2.74 2.74 2.71 2.59 USD/JPY 111.4 111.4 111.9 Malaysia 4.02 4.03 4.07 4.08 USD/SGD 1.364 1.368 1.362 Singapore 2.44 2.45 2.45 2.44 USD/THB 33.22 33.35 33.20 Indonesia USD Bond Yield
USD/MYR 4.076 4.082 4.045 INDO-22 3.75 3.76 3.73 3.90 INDO-27 4.34 4.36 4.29 4.47
Macroeconomic Data INDO-47 4.94 4.97 4.94 5.17
Jul-18 Jun-18 May-18
Consumer Price Index (MoM) 0.28 0.59 0.21 Money Market 7-Aug
Consumer Price Index (YoY) 3.18 3.12 3.23 7-Aug (-1 day) (-1 week) (- 1 month) Core Inflation (YoY) 2.87 2.72 2.75 JIBOR
BI 7-Day RR Rate (%) 5.25 5.25 4.75 O/N 5.04 5.01 5.00 4.94 Foreign Reserve (US$ Bn) 118.3 119.8 122.9 1M 6.40 6.40 6.45 7.19
3M 7.01 7.01 7.09 7.35
Indonesia Sovereign CDS LIBOR
As of 2-year 5-year 10-year 1M 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.07
7-Aug 39.30 110.97 191.12 3M 2.34 2.34 2.35 2.34
(-1 Day) 40.60 114.65 196.08 6M 2.52 2.52 2.53 2.51 (-1 Week) 42.09 111.78 190.61 Indonesia Interest Rates
(-1 Month) 47.44 123.54 207.20 Deposit 1M 5.75 5.75 5.74 5.74 (-1 Year) 44.00 108.95 182.05 Lending 13.8 13.6 13.7 14.1
Benchmark 7-Aug (-1 day) Change Yield
FR0061 98.35 98.18 17 7.51% FR0059 94.69 94.69 1 7.85% FR0074 94.34 94.11 23 8.19% FR0072 100.15 99.72 43 8.23%
Last Yield Most Active Corporate Bonds Last Price Last Yield Most Active Government Bonds Last Price
Government Bond Ownership As of August 06, 2018 (in Trillion)
Holders 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1-Aug-18 2-Aug-18 3-Aug-18 6-Aug-18
Banks 335.43 375.55 350.07 399.46 491.61 578.33 588.90 597.38 594.28
Bank Indonesia 44.44 41.63 148.91 134.25 141.83 100.99 103.45 92.99 95.31
Mutual Fund 42.50 45.79 61.60 85.66 104.00 113.0 113.5 113.3 113.3
Insurance 129.55 150.60 171.62 238.24 150.80 189.8 190.1 190.0 190.1
Foreign Investor 323.83 461.35 558.52 665.81 836.15 839.29 844.99 847.14 847.71
Pension Fund 39.47 43.30 49.83 87.28 198.06 209.08 209.46 209.48 209.53
Individual Investors 32.48 30.41 42.53 57.75 59.84 63.39 63.44 63.47 63.51
Others 47.56 61.32 78.76 104.84 117.48 132.17 132.21 132.25 132.31
Government Bonds Prices
Closing Price Data : 7-Aug-2018
Series
Maturity
TTM
Coupon
Price
YTM
Price (-1)
Price Spread (bps)
FR0038
15-Aug-18
0.02
11.600%
100.27
-4.32%
100.30
-2.7
FR0048
15-Sep-18
0.11
9.000%
100.57
3.17%
100.57
0.7
FR0069
15-Apr-19
0.69
7.875%
100.98
6.37%
100.96
1.8
FR0036
15-Sep-19
1.11
11.500%
105.17
6.54%
105.15
1.8
FR0031
15-Nov-20
2.28
11.000%
108.07
7.07%
107.92
14.9
FR0034
15-Jun-21
2.86
12.800%
114.02
7.26%
114.06
-4.2
FR0053
15-Jul-21
2.94
8.250%
102.44
7.31%
102.40
3.9
FR0061
15-May-22
3.77
7.000%
98.35
7.51%
98.18
16.9
FR0035
15-Jun-22
3.86
12.900%
117.20
7.65%
117.05
14.3
FR0043
15-Jul-22
3.94
10.250%
108.71
7.64%
108.52
18.9
FR0063
15-May-23
4.77
5.625%
92.17
7.61%
92.10
7.0
FR0046
15-Jul-23
4.94
9.500%
107.00
7.76%
107.00
0.0
FR0039
15-Aug-23
5.02
11.750%
116.20
7.79%
116.11
8.6
FR0070
15-Mar-24
5.61
8.375%
102.47
7.82%
102.97
-49.6
FR0044
15-Sep-24
6.11
10.000%
110.20
7.86%
110.18
2.0
FR0040
15-Sep-25
7.11
11.000%
116.64
7.89%
116.58
6.1
FR0037
15-Sep-26
8.11
12.000%
124.40
7.87%
124.26
14.3
FR0056
15-Sep-26
8.11
8.375%
103.03
7.86%
102.97
5.4
FR0059
15-May-27
8.78
7.000%
94.69
7.85%
94.69
0.5
FR0042
15-Jul-27
8.94
10.250%
114.66
7.93%
114.45
21.3
FR0047
15-Feb-28
9.53
10.000%
113.41
7.96%
113.06
34.4
FR0064
15-May-28
9.78
6.125%
89.06
7.74%
88.97
9.4
FR0071
15-Mar-29
10.61
9.000%
107.04
8.00%
106.90
13.6
FR0052
15-Aug-30
12.03
10.500%
118.00
8.13%
118.00
0.0
FR0073
15-May-31
12.78
8.750%
104.43
8.18%
104.41
2.3
FR0054
15-Jul-31
12.95
9.500%
110.61
8.16%
110.39
21.9
FR0058
15-Jun-32
13.87
8.250%
101.25
8.10%
100.00
125.0
FR0074
15-Aug-32
14.03
7.500%
94.34
8.19%
94.11
22.6
FR0065
15-May-33
14.78
6.625%
87.54
8.08%
87.29
24.1
FR0068
15-Mar-34
15.61
8.375%
101.40
8.21%
100.88
51.9
FR0072
15-May-36
17.78
8.250%
100.15
8.23%
99.72
43.1
FR0045
15-May-37
18.78
9.750%
113.65
8.30%
113.649
0.0
FR0075
15-May-38
138.47
7.500%
93.81
8.13%
93.62
19.0
FR0050
15-Jul-38
19.95
10.500%
119.75
8.44%
119.90
-15.0
FR0057
15-May-41
22.79
9.500%
110.02
8.50%
110.08
-6.3
FR0062
15-Apr-42
23.70
6.375%
78.83
8.46%
78.83
0.0
FR0067
15-Jul-43
24.95
8.750%
103.02
8.46%
103.02
0.0
FR0076
15-May-48
29.79
7.375%
88.62
8.49%
88.54
8.4
Macroeconomic Indicator Calendar (19 - 23 Maret 2018)
Macroeconomic Indicator Calendar (August 06 - August 10 2018)
Source: Tradingeconomics, Bloomberg, and MCS Estimates (2018)
INDONESIA
Date Indicator Series Data Actual Previous Projection
06 Economic Growth Rate (QoQ) Quarter-II 4.21% -0.42% 2.02%
06 Economic Growth Rate (YoY) Quarter-II 5.27% 5.06% 5.10%
06 Consumer Confidence Jul-18 124.8 128.1 128
07 Foreign Exchange Reserves Jul-18 USD 118.3 billion USD 119.8 billion USD 119 billion
10 Current Account Quarter-II - USD -5.5 billion USD -5.6 billion
GLOBAL
Date Indicator Country Series Data Actual Previous Projection
07 Balance of Trade Germany Jun-18 EUR 21.8 billion EUR 19.7 billion EUR 24.5 billion
08 Balance of Trade China Jul-18 - USD 41.61 billion USD 26 billion
08 Crude Oil Inventory US Aug 03 - 2018 Week Ended, - 3.80 million barrel -1.40 million barrel
09 Inflation Rate (YoY) China Jul-18 - 1.9% 2.1%
09 10-Year Note Auction US - - 2.86% -
09 Wholesale Inventories (MoM) US Jun-18 - 0.4% 0%
09 Initial Jobless Claims US Week Ended, Aug 04-2018 - 218 thousand 217 thousand
09 Continuing Jobless Claims US Week Ended, July 28-2018 - 1724 thousand 1736 thousand
10 Econ. Growth Annualized Prelim. Japan Quarter-II - -0.6% 0.9%
10 Econ. Growth Prelim. (YoY) Kingdom Quarter-II United - 1.2% 1.4%
PT. MEGA CAPITAL SEKURITAS
Head Office
Menara Bank Mega Lt. 2
Jl. Kapten P. Tendean Kav 12-14A
Jakarta 12790
DISCLAIMER
This Document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors and strictly a personal view and should not be used as a sole judgment for investment. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights
