Fixed Income Daily Notes
Global Market Update
At Friday, August 10, US 10-year treasury yield fell to 2.87% after investors moved their assets to US because of Turkey currency crises. Majority of global benchmark bond yield was also move downward, indicated by 10-years UK gilt and German bund that fell to 1.24% and 0.32% respectively.
Yield 10-years US Treasury note pada hari Jum’at, 10 Agustus 2018 ditutup turun ke level 2,87% akibat adanya perpindahan aset dari investor akibat krisis Turki. Dari pasar obligasi global, yield acuan global sebagian besar juga ditutup turun, terlihat dari yield 10 tahun UK Gilt dan German Bund yang ditutup turun ke level 1,24% dan 0,32%.
Domestic Market Update
At Friday, August, 10, BI published Current Account Deficit (CAD) data for 2nd quarter. Indonesia CAD for 2nd quarter reached 3% GDP, or USD 8.03 billion. CAD increasing was caused by deficit of Indonesia balance of trade and government debt payment this quarter. Executive Director of Statistic Department BI, Yati Kurniati, stated that even though in this quarter CAD widen to 3% GDP, in 2018, CAD still at 2.6% GDP. However, widen CAD are predicted to affect Rupiah in the short term.
At Tuesday, August 14 2018, Government will issue IDR 10—20 trillion of government securities. There
are 6 auctioned government securities; SPN12181115 (Reopening), SPN12190606
(Reopening), FR0063 (Reopening), FR0064 (Reopening), FR0065 (Reopening), and FR0075 (Reopening).
Today, Government bond prices on the secondary market are likely to weaken because of Turkey crises and CAD negative sentiment. Rupiah will be ranging from IDR 14,505 - 14,553 and yield of 10 year benchmark bond (FR0064) will be ranging from 7.63% - 7.69%.
Pada hari Jum’at, 10 Agustus 2018, Bank Indonesia (BI) mencatat defisit transaksi berjalan (CAD) pada Kuartal-II 2018 menembus 3% PDB atau setara dengan US$ 8,03 miliar. Tingginya CAD ini disebabkan oleh semakin besarnya defisit neraca perdagangan pada Kuartal-II 2018 disertai jadwal pembayaran Utang Luar Negeri (ULN) pemerintah pada kuartal ini. Direktur Eksekutif Departemen Statistik BI, Yati Kurniati, menyatakan bahwa meskipun pada kuartal-II ini nilai CAD mencapai 3% PDB, secara keseluruhan di 2018, CAD Indonesia masih berada pada batas aman, yaitu 2,6% dari PDB. Meskipun demikian, CAD yang melebar ini dapat memberikan sentimen negatif pada Rupiah di jangka pendek.
Pada hari Selasa, 14 Agustus 2018, pemerintah akan mengadakan lelang Surat Utang Negara (SUN) atau sukuk dengan target Rp 10 - 20 triliun. Adapun seri SUN yang akan dilelang ialah ialah SPN12181115 (Reopening), SPN12190606 (Reopening), FR0063 (Reopening), FR0064 (Reopening), FR0065 (Reopening), dan FR0075 (Reopening).
Hari ini, pergerakan harga SBN secara umum di pasar sekunder diprediksi cenderung melemah akibat dampak dari krisis Turki dan sentimen negatif CAD Indonesia yang melebar di Kuartal-II. Nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar AS diprediksi bergerak pada kisaran Rp14.505 – Rp14.553 sedangkan yield benchmark 10 tahun (FR0064) pada perdagangan hari ini diperkirakan bergerak di rentang 7,63% - 7,69%.
Maturities (Year) 10-Aug (-1 day) (-1 week) (-1 month)
Volume Volume
(IDR bn) (IDR bn)
FR0063 92.30 7.58 1905 BIIF02ACN1 AA+(idn) 100.00 7.75 340 FR0064 89.50 7.67 1176 PNMP02ACN2 idA 100.15 6.71 137 FR0069 101.00 5.00 793 BEXI03CCN4 idAAA 101.01 7.85 60 FR0059 95.40 7.73 600 BBIA01C AAA(idn) 102.67 7.24 45 FR0070 103.35 7.63 580 FIFA02BCN3 idAAA 101.20 7.21 40 FR0065 87.60 8.08 556 PIHC01ACN2 AAA(idn) 100.95 7.05 40 FR0071 108.25 7.84 439 PTPP02ACN1 idA+ 100.40 8.09 20 FR0061 99.25 7.23 396 SMFP04BCN3 idAAA 97.25 8.07 13 FR0075 96.00 7.90 294 ISAT01BCN1 idAAA 103.09 7.66 12 PBS016 98.31 7.39 250 TBIG02CN3 AA-(idn) 97.00 6.86 12 Global Stock Marketss Last Price Chg (bps) % Chg % YTD Global Bonds 10-Aug Indonesia (JCI) 6077 11.92 0.20% -4.38% 10-Aug (-1 day) (-1 week) (- 1 month) Malaysia (KLCI) 1806 0.80 0.04% 0.50% Fed Fund Rate & US T-Bonds Yield
Thailand (SET) 1706 -16.52 -0.96% -2.72% Fed Fund Rate 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 Singapore (STI) 3285 -41.96 -1.26% -3.5% 2-Year 2.55 2.53 2.51 2.49 Hang Seng 28367 -240.68 -0.84% -5.2% 5-Year 2.73 2.72 2.72 2.76 Nikkei 225 22298 -300.31 -1.33% -2.05% 10-Year 2.87 2.93 2.95 2.83 Shanghai 2795 0.93 0.03% -15.48% 30-Year 2.95 2.96 2.97 3.07 Dow Jones (DJIA) 25313 -196.09 -0.77% 2.40% 10-Year Government Bond Yield
London (FTSE 100) 7667 -74.76 -0.97% -0.27% UK 1.24 1.30 1.33 1.27 DAX 12424 -251.76 -1.99% -3.8% Germany 0.32 0.37 0.41 0.34
France 0.67 0.71 0.74 0.62
FX Rate 10-Aug China 3.55 3.54 3.46 3.48
10-Aug (-1 day) (-1 week) Japan 0.10 0.11 0.10 0.04 USD/IDR 14,529 14,474 14,476 Korea 2.73 2.73 2.73 2.73 GBP/USD 1.277 1.282 1.300 Thailand 2.71 2.72 2.73 2.60 USD/JPY 110.8 111.1 111.3 Malaysia 4.04 4.05 4.04 4.09 USD/SGD 1.373 1.368 1.365 Singapore 2.41 2.45 2.47 2.45 USD/THB 33.32 33.24 33.26 Indonesia USD Bond Yield
USD/MYR 4.085 4.075 4.083 INDO-22 3.75 3.75 3.77 3.82 INDO-27 4.35 4.35 4.37 4.37
Macroeconomic Data INDO-47 4.93 4.92 5.00 5.02
Jul-18 Jun-18 May-18
Consumer Price Index (MoM) 0.28 0.59 0.21 Money Market 10-Aug Consumer Price Index (YoY) 3.18 3.12 3.23 10-Aug (-1 day) (-1 week) (- 1 month) Core Inflation (YoY) 2.87 2.72 2.75 JIBOR
BI 7-Day RR Rate (%) 5.25 5.25 4.75 O/N 5.05 5.05 5.00 4.98 Foreign Reserve (US$ Bn) 118.3 119.8 122.9 1M 6.41 6.41 6.40 7.05
3M 7.00 7.01 7.01 7.31
Indonesia Sovereign CDS LIBOR
As of 2-year 5-year 10-year 1M 2.07 2.07 2.08 2.07
10-Aug 42.57 120.02 203.34 3M 2.32 2.34 2.34 2.34
(-1 Day) 40.16 113.28 194.18 6M 2.51 2.52 2.52 2.52 (-1 Week) 41.30 116.35 191.60 Indonesia Interest Rates
(-1 Month) 45.02 119.75 199.95 Deposit 1M 5.77 5.79 5.71 5.66 (-1 Year) 47.87 116.03 189.61 Lending 13.8 13.6 13.3 14.2 Benchmark 10-Aug (-1 day) Change Yield FR0061 99.11 99.01 10 7.27% FR0059 95.61 95.63 -2 7.70% FR0074 95.68 95.78 -10 8.02% FR0072 101.24 101.20 4 8.12% Last Yield Most Active Corporate Bonds Last Price Last Yield
Most Active Government Bonds Last Price
Government Bond Ownership As of August 09, 2018 (in Trillion)
Holders 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 6-Aug-18 7-Aug-18 8-Aug-18 9-Aug-18
Banks 335.43 375.55 350.07 399.46 491.61 594.28 586.92 583.05 584.17
Bank Indonesia 44.44 41.63 148.91 134.25 141.83 95.31 96.64 100.21 99.39
Mutual Fund 42.50 45.79 61.60 85.66 104.00 113.3 113.4 113.1 113.3
Insurance 129.55 150.60 171.62 238.24 150.80 190.1 190.2 190.2 190.2
Foreign Investor 323.83 461.35 558.52 665.81 836.15 847.71 847.47 847.98 845.76
Pension Fund 39.47 43.30 49.83 87.28 198.06 209.53 209.68 209.70 210.12
Individual Investors 32.48 30.41 42.53 57.75 59.84 63.51 63.55 63.58 63.55
Others 47.56 61.32 78.76 104.84 117.48 132.31 132.26 132.27 132.31
Government Bonds Prices
Closing Price Data : 10-Aug-2018
Series
Maturity
TTM
Coupon
Price
YTM
Price (-1)
Price Spread (bps)
FR0038
15-Aug-18
0.01
11.600%
100.12
-31.09%
100.48
-35.4
FR0048
15-Sep-18
0.10
9.000%
100.56
2.49%
100.63
-7.7
FR0069
15-Apr-19
0.68
7.875%
101.06
6.22%
101.08
-2.0
FR0036
15-Sep-19
1.10
11.500%
105.15
6.51%
105.17
-1.8
FR0031
15-Nov-20
2.27
11.000%
108.30
6.95%
108.39
-9.6
FR0034
15-Jun-21
2.85
12.800%
114.39
7.10%
114.19
19.9
FR0053
15-Jul-21
2.93
8.250%
103.02
7.08%
103.04
-1.6
FR0061
15-May-22
3.76
7.000%
99.11
7.27%
99.01
10.3
FR0035
15-Jun-22
3.85
12.900%
118.22
7.36%
118.29
-7.2
FR0043
15-Jul-22
3.93
10.250%
109.07
7.53%
109.00
7.7
FR0063
15-May-23
4.76
5.625%
92.61
7.50%
92.75
-14.8
FR0046
15-Jul-23
4.93
9.500%
107.00
7.76%
107.00
0.0
FR0039
15-Aug-23
5.02
11.750%
117.16
7.57%
116.98
17.4
FR0070
15-Mar-24
5.60
8.375%
102.81
7.74%
102.81
0.0
FR0044
15-Sep-24
6.10
10.000%
111.24
7.65%
111.00
24.0
FR0040
15-Sep-25
7.10
11.000%
117.59
7.73%
116.85
73.4
FR0037
15-Sep-26
8.10
12.000%
125.01
7.77%
124.68
33.2
FR0056
15-Sep-26
8.10
8.375%
103.91
7.71%
103.75
16.1
FR0059
15-May-27
8.77
7.000%
95.61
7.70%
95.63
-1.9
FR0042
15-Jul-27
8.93
10.250%
115.82
7.76%
115.31
51.0
FR0047
15-Feb-28
9.52
10.000%
114.57
7.80%
113.99
58.4
FR0064
15-May-28
9.77
6.125%
89.74
7.63%
89.90
-15.8
FR0071
15-Mar-29
10.60
9.000%
108.22
7.84%
108.09
13.2
FR0052
15-Aug-30
12.02
10.500%
119.65
7.93%
119.65
0.0
FR0073
15-May-31
12.77
8.750%
105.87
8.00%
106.03
-15.2
FR0054
15-Jul-31
12.94
9.500%
111.59
8.04%
111.39
19.8
FR0058
15-Jun-32
13.86
8.250%
100.00
8.25%
100.00
0.0
FR0074
15-Aug-32
14.02
7.500%
95.68
8.02%
95.78
-10.2
FR0065
15-May-33
14.77
6.625%
88.13
8.01%
88.41
-28.0
FR0068
15-Mar-34
15.61
8.375%
102.27
8.12%
102.17
10.2
FR0072
15-May-36
17.78
8.250%
101.24
8.12%
101.20
4.0
FR0045
15-May-37
18.78
9.750%
113.65
8.30%
113.649
0.0
FR0075
15-May-38
138.47
7.500%
94.36
8.07%
94.73
-37.2
FR0050
15-Jul-38
19.94
10.500%
120.15
8.40%
120.15
0.0
FR0057
15-May-41
22.78
9.500%
110.27
8.47%
110.27
0.0
FR0062
15-Apr-42
23.70
6.375%
79.08
8.43%
79.08
0.0
FR0067
15-Jul-43
24.95
8.750%
102.66
8.49%
102.66
0.0
FR0076
15-May-48
29.78
7.375%
88.88
8.49%
88.55
32.4
Macroeconomic Indicator Calendar (19 - 23 Maret 2018)
Macroeconomic Indicator Calendar (August 13 - August 17 2018)
Source: Tradingeconomics, Bloomberg, and MCS Estimates (2018)
INDONESIA
Date
Indicator
Series
Data
Actual
Previous
Projection
15 Balance of Trade Jul-18 - USD 1.74 billion USD 1.3 billion
16 7-Days Repo Rate - - 5.25% 5.50%
GLOBAL
Date
Indicator
Country Series Data
Actual
Previous
Projection
14 Economic Growth Rate Flash (YoY) Germany Quarter-II - 2.3% 2.6%
14 Unemployment Rate Kingdom United Jun-18 - 4.2% 4.3%
14 Economic Growth Rate 2nd Est. (YoY) Euro Area Quarter-II - 2.5% 2.1%
15 Inflation Rate (YoY) Kingdom United Jul-18 - 2.4% 2.5%
15 Retail Sales (MoM) US Jul-18 - 0.5% 0.3%
15 Crude Oil Inventory US Aug 10 - 2018 Week Ended, - -1.35 million barrel 0.75 million barrel
16 Balance of Trade Japan Jul-18 - JPY 721 billion JPY –0.96 billion
16 Initial Jobless Claims US Week Ended, Aug 11-2018 - 213 thousand 217 thousand
16 Continuing Jobless Claims US Week Ended, Aug 04-2018 - 1755 thousand 1737 thousand
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