Fixed Income Daily Notes
Global Market Update
At Wednesday, August 15, US 10-year treasury yield move downward to 2.86% after higher tension of global trade because retaliation policy of Turkey toward US import goods. Majority of global benchmark bond yield also moved downward, indicated by 10-years UK gilt and German Bund that fell to 1.22% and 0.30% .
Yield 10-years US Treasury note pada hari Rabu, 15 Agustus 2018 ditutup turun ke level 2,86% akibat meningkatnya tensi perang dagang global setelah adanya aksi balasan dari Turki terkait pengenaan impor dari AS. Dari pasar obligasi global, yield acuan global mayoritas ditutup mengalami penurunan, terlihat dari yield 10 tahun UK Gilt dan German Bund yang ditutup turun ke anticipate capital outflow, that was caused by Turkey crises. They also implemented rate hiking to narrow current account deficit (CAD), that reached 3% GDP in 2nd quarter. BI governor, Perry Warjiyo, stated that BI were focusing on stabilizing Rupiah and narrowing CAD.
Today, Government bond prices on the secondary market are likely to strengthen moderately because of lower tension of Gubernur (RDG) Bank Indonesia (BI) memutuskan menaikkan 7-days Repo Rate (7-DRR) sebanyak 25 bps ke level 5,50%. BI menaikan tingkat suku bunga dengan alasan untuk mengantisipasi arus dana keluar akibat penularan krisis Lira Turki. Tidak hanya untuk mengantisipasi krisis, kenaikan ini juga disebabkan oleh usaha BI untuk memperkecil Current Account Deficit (CAD), yang pada Kuartal-II melebar hingga 3% PDB. Gubernur BI, Perry Warjiyo, menyatakan bahwa fokus BI saat ini ialah stabilisasi Rupiah serta memperkecil CAD.
Hari ini, pergerakan harga SBN secara umum di pasar sekunder diprediksi cenderung menguat terbatas akibat mulai meredanya krisis Lira Turki. Nilai tukar rupiah terhadap Dollar AS diprediksi bergerak pada kisaran Rp 14.572 - 14.628. Sedangkan yield benchmark 10 tahun (FR0064) pada perdagangan hari ini diperkirakan bergerak di rentang 7,83% - 8,03%.
Maturities (Year) 15-Aug (-1 day) (-1 week) (-1 month)
Government Bond Ownership As of August 10, 2018 (in Trillion)
Holders 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 7-Aug-18 8-Aug-18 9-Aug-18 10-Aug-18
Banks 335.43 375.55 350.07 399.46 491.61 586.92 583.05 584.17 580.12 Bank Indonesia 44.44 41.63 148.91 134.25 141.83 96.64 100.21 99.39 101.85 Mutual Fund 42.50 45.79 61.60 85.66 104.00 113.4 113.1 113.3 114.3 Insurance 129.55 150.60 171.62 238.24 150.80 190.2 190.2 190.2 190.2
Foreign Investor 323.83 461.35 558.52 665.81 836.15 847.47 847.98 845.76 847.41
Pension Fund 39.47 43.30 49.83 87.28 198.06 209.68 209.70 210.12 210.10 Individual Investors 32.48 30.41 42.53 57.75 59.84 63.55 63.58 63.55 63.58 Others 47.56 61.32 78.76 104.84 117.48 132.26 132.27 132.31 132.75
Total 995.25 1,209.96 1,461.85 1,773.28 2,099.77 2,240.06 2,240.06 2,238.74 2,240.24
Source: Bloomberg, IDX & DJPPR
Volume Volume
(IDR bn) (IDR bn)
FR0065 90.85 7.67 6150 IMFI03BCN3 idA 100.17 8.13 275
FR0064 87.85 7.94 4998 BBKP01SBCN1 idA 100.65 8.01 102
FR0074 93.06 8.35 1602 BVIC01BCN2 idA- 100.05 8.16 100
SPN12190214 97.40 5.47 1579 FIFA03ACN2 idAAA 99.91 7.07 100
FR0063 91.60 7.78 1375 SIEXCL01CCN1 AAA(idn) 103.45 8.82 92
FR0061 98.45 7.48 1354 BIIF02ACN1 AA+(idn) 100.18 7.68 60
FR0053 102.75 7.18 1212 MYOR01CN3 idAA 95.88 7.19 42
FR0059 93.75 8.00 1188 ISAT08B idAAA 99.35 7.00 40
FR0071 106.05 8.13 1009 ASDF03BCN1 AAA(idn) 101.32 6.66 20
FR0069 100.75 6.68 759 ISAT01BCN1 idAAA 103.07 7.73 20
Global Stock Marketss Last Price Chg (bps) % Chg % YTD Global Bonds 15-Aug
Indonesia (JCI) 5817 46.72 0.81% -8.48% 15-Aug (-1 day) (-1 week) (- 1 month) Malaysia (KLCI) 1786 2.16 0.12% -0.60% Fed Fund Rate & US T-Bonds Yield
Thailand (SET) 1676 -19.06 -1.12% -4.41% Fed Fund Rate 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00
Singapore (STI) 3234 -8.75 -0.27% -5.0% 2-Year 2.55 2.53 2.51 2.49
Hang Seng 27324 -429.34 -1.55% -8.7% 5-Year 2.73 2.72 2.72 2.76
Nikkei 225 22204 -151.86 -0.68% -2.46% 10-Year 2.86 2.90 2.96 2.87
Shanghai 2723 -57.71 -2.08% -17.66% 30-Year 2.95 2.96 2.97 3.07
Dow Jones (DJIA) 25162 -137.51 -0.54% 1.79% 10-Year Government Bond Yield
London (FTSE 100) 7498 -113.77 -1.49% -2.47% UK 1.22 1.26 1.31 1.23
DAX 12163 -195.86 -1.58% -5.8% Germany 0.30 0.33 0.40 0.34
France 0.67 0.68 0.73 0.63
FX Rate 15-Aug China 3.59 3.55 3.52 3.47
15-Aug (-1 day) (-1 week) Japan 0.09 0.11 0.11 0.04
USD/IDR 14,600 14,593 14,407 Korea 2.73 2.73 2.73 2.73
GBP/USD 1.270 1.272 1.288 Thailand 2.72 2.71 2.73 2.75
USD/JPY 110.7 111.2 111.0 Malaysia 4.06 4.06 4.04 4.09
USD/SGD 1.380 1.378 1.363 Singapore 2.44 2.44 2.45 2.42
USD/THB 33.32 33.29 33.23 Indonesia USD Bond Yield
USD/MYR 4.104 4.099 4.075 INDO-22 3.79 3.80 3.75 3.78
INDO-27 4.40 4.39 4.35 4.26
Macroeconomic Data INDO-47 4.97 4.97 4.93 4.91
Jul-18 Jun-18 May-18
Consumer Price Index (MoM) 0.28 0.59 0.21 Money Market 15-Aug
Consumer Price Index (YoY) 3.18 3.12 3.23 15-Aug (-1 day) (-1 week) (- 1 month) Core Inflation (YoY) 2.87 2.72 2.75 JIBOR
BI 7-Day RR Rate (%) 5.25 5.25 4.75 O/N 5.11 5.10 5.05 5.00
Foreign Reserve (US$ Bn) 118.3 119.8 122.9 1M 6.44 6.43 6.42 6.94
3M 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.23
Indonesia Sovereign CDS LIBOR
As of 2-year 5-year 10-year 1M 2.06 2.06 2.06 2.09
15-Aug 45.17 127.10 212.73 3M 2.32 2.32 2.34 2.35
(-1 Day) 43.52 122.51 206.71 6M 2.51 2.51 2.52 2.53
(-1 Week) 39.97 112.80 193.52 Indonesia Interest Rates
(-1 Month) 42.77 115.55 193.78 Deposit 1M 5.77 5.78 5.73 5.66
(-1 Year) 44.00 109.00 182.69 Lending 14.0 14.0 13.7 13.8
Benchmark 15-Aug (-1 day) Change Yield
FR0061 98.45 98.44 1 7.48%
FR0059 93.69 93.39 29 8.02%
FR0074 92.95 93.11 -16 8.36%
FR0072 98.76 98.58 18 8.38%
Government Bonds Prices
Closing Price Data : 15-Aug-2018
Series Maturity TTM Coupon Price YTM Price (-1) Price Spread (bps)
FR0038 15-Aug-18 0.00 11.600% 100.09 -23.92% 100.10 -1.4
FR0048 15-Sep-18 0.08 9.000% 100.54 1.31% 100.54 -0.2
FR0069 15-Apr-19 0.67 7.875% 100.84 6.52% 100.84 -0.3
FR0036 15-Sep-19 1.08 11.500% 104.79 6.78% 105.12 -33.1
FR0031 15-Nov-20 2.25 11.000% 107.92 7.10% 108.03 -10.8
FR0034 15-Jun-21 2.84 12.800% 114.03 7.20% 114.13 -9.9
FR0053 15-Jul-21 2.92 8.250% 102.56 7.25% 102.52 4.5
FR0061 15-May-22 3.75 7.000% 98.45 7.48% 98.44 0.9
FR0035 15-Jun-22 3.84 12.900% 117.16 7.63% 118.22 -105.8
FR0043 15-Jul-22 3.92 10.250% 108.27 7.75% 109.02 -75.4
FR0063 15-May-23 4.75 5.625% 91.66 7.76% 91.58 7.9
FR0046 15-Jul-23 4.92 9.500% 106.60 7.85% 106.60 0.0
FR0039 15-Aug-23 5.00 11.750% 116.00 7.81% 115.99 1.6
FR0070 15-Mar-24 5.59 8.375% 102.34 7.85% 102.19 14.9
FR0044 15-Sep-24 6.09 10.000% 110.00 7.89% 109.84 15.6
FR0040 15-Sep-25 7.09 11.000% 116.24 7.95% 116.15 9.3
FR0037 15-Sep-26 8.09 12.000% 124.96 7.78% 124.96 0.0
FR0056 15-Sep-26 8.09 8.375% 102.19 8.00% 102.34 -14.1
FR0059 15-May-27 8.75 7.000% 93.69 8.02% 93.39 29.4
FR0042 15-Jul-27 8.92 10.250% 113.60 8.08% 113.70 -9.9
FR0047 15-Feb-28 9.51 10.000% 112.23 8.13% 112.21 2.2
FR0064 15-May-28 9.76 6.125% 87.69 7.96% 87.57 12.1
FR0071 15-Mar-29 10.59 9.000% 106.16 8.12% 106.78 -61.7
FR0052 15-Aug-30 12.01 10.500% 117.40 8.19% 117.00 40.0
FR0073 15-May-31 12.76 8.750% 103.97 8.24% 104.41 -44.0
FR0054 15-Jul-31 12.92 9.500% 109.23 8.32% 109.24 -1.0
FR0058 15-Jun-32 13.84 8.250% 102.00 8.01% 100.50 150.0
FR0074 15-Aug-32 14.01 7.500% 92.95 8.36% 93.11 -15.5
FR0065 15-May-33 14.76 6.625% 85.66 8.33% 85.46 20.7
FR0068 15-Mar-34 15.59 8.375% 100.30 8.34% 100.63 -32.6
FR0072 15-May-36 17.76 8.250% 98.76 8.38% 98.58 18.0
FR0045 15-May-37 18.76 9.750% 111.83 8.30% 113.649 -182.3
FR0075 15-May-38 138.47 7.500% 91.53 8.38% 91.47 6.1
FR0050 15-Jul-38 19.93 10.500% 119.50 8.46% 119.50 0.0
FR0057 15-May-41 22.76 9.500% 109.26 8.57% 110.27 -100.9
FR0062 15-Apr-42 23.68 6.375% 77.79 8.58% 79.08 -129.7
FR0067 15-Jul-43 24.93 8.750% 102.66 8.49% 102.66 0.0
FR0076 15-May-48 29.77 7.375% 88.29 8.54% 88.12 16.7
Macroeconomic Indicator Calendar (19 - 23 Maret 2018)
Macroeconomic Indicator Calendar (August 13 - August 17 2018)
Source: Tradingeconomics, Bloomberg, and MCS Estimates (2018)
INDONESIA
Date Indicator Series Data Actual Previous Projection
15 Balance of Trade Jul-18 USD 2.03 billion USD 1.74 billion USD 1.3 billion
15 7-Days Repo Rate - 5.50% 5.25% 5.50%
GLOBAL
Date Indicator Country Series Data Actual Previous Projection
14 Economic Growth Rate Flash (YoY) Germany Quarter-II 2.0% 2.1% 2.6%
14 Unemployment Rate Kingdom United Jun-18 4.0% 4.2% 4.3%
14 Economic Growth Rate 2nd Est. (YoY) Euro Area Quarter-II 2.2% 2.5% 2.1%
15 Inflation Rate (YoY) Kingdom United Jul-18 2.5% 2.4% 2.5%
15 Retail Sales (MoM) US Jul-18 0.5% 0.2% 0.3%
15 Crude Oil Inventory US Aug 10 - 2018 6.81 million barrel -1.35 million barrel 0.75 million barrel Week Ended,
16 Balance of Trade Japan Jul-18 - JPY 721 billion JPY –0.96 billion
16 Initial Jobless Claims US Week Ended, Aug 11-2018 - 213 thousand 217 thousand
16 Continuing Jobless Claims US Week Ended, Aug 04-2018 - 1755 thousand 1737 thousand
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