Fixed Income Daily Notes
Global Market Update
China will impose 25% retaliatory tariff to USD 16 billion US goods. This policy would be implemented at August 23 2018, same date as US import tariff implementation. China will impose tariff to fuel, steel product, medical equipment, Majority of global benchmark bond yield was also move downward, indicated by 10-years UK gilt akan berlaku pada 23 Agustus 2018, bersamaan dengan implementasi tarif AS. Adapun jenis barang yang akan barang-barang yang merupakan ekspor mayoritas AS di Tiongkok, seperti minyak mentah dan pesawat terbang.
Yield 10-years US Treasury note pada hari Rabu, 08 Agustus 2018 ditutup turun ke level 2,96% akibat meningkatnya tensi dagang yang menutupi dampak dari lelang obligasi AS. Seiring dengan kondisi di pasar obligasi AS, dari pasar obligasi global, yield acuan global sebagian besar juga ditutup mengalami penurunan, terlihat dari yield 10 tahun UK Gilt dan German Bund yang ditutup turun ke level 1,31% dan 0,40%.
Domestic Market Update
sekunder diprediksi cenderung menguat terbatas akibat turunnya yield AS. Nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar AS diprediksi bergerak pada kisaran Rp14.385 – Rp14.429 sedangkan yield benchmark 10 tahun (FR0064) pada perdagangan hari ini diperkirakan bergerak di rentang 7,66% - 7,70%.Indonesia Government Bonds Yield
Maturities (Year) 8-Aug (-1 day) (-1 week) (-1 month)
Volume Volume
(IDR bn) (IDR bn)
FR0064 89.60 7.65 2080 SMSMII01ACN1 idAAA(sy) 99.44 7.76 248
FR0063 92.50 5.00 1688 GNSMII01ACN1 idAAA 99.97 6.35 166
FR0074 95.35 7.16 1291 TAXI01 idBB+ 12.50 16.99 120
FR0069 101.00 5.00 1146 DILD02A idA- 100.50 10.27 90
FR0070 103.35 7.63 879 PNBN02CN3 idAA 98.46 6.63 82
FR0065 88.50 7.96 710 STTP01BCN2 idA 103.86 9.20 80
FR0059 95.25 7.75 614 BSDE02ACN1 idAA- 100.71 8.80 60
FR0072 100.75 8.17 516 MFIN03ACN1 idA 99.97 7.01 50
FR0073 105.05 8.10 456 MYOR01CN3 idAA 95.97 7.53 49
FR0075 94.20 5.00 451 BBRI01BCN2 idAAA 101.35 8.47 40
Global Stock Marketss Last Price Chg (bps) % Chg % YTD Global Bonds 8-Aug
Indonesia (JCI) 6095 3.58 0.06% -4.10% 8-Aug (-1 day) (-1 week) (- 1 month) Malaysia (KLCI) 1805 13.64 0.76% 0.44% Fed Fund Rate & US T-Bonds Yield
Thailand (SET) 1722 14.38 0.84% -1.83% Fed Fund Rate 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00
Singapore (STI) 3327 -13.26 -0.40% -2.2% 2-Year 2.55 2.53 2.51 2.49
Hang Seng 28359 110.26 0.39% -5.2% 5-Year 2.73 2.72 2.72 2.76
Nikkei 225 22644 -18.43 -0.08% -0.53% 10-Year 2.96 2.97 3.01 2.85
Shanghai 2744 -35.30 -1.27% -17.03% 30-Year 2.95 2.96 2.97 3.07
Dow Jones (DJIA) 25584 -45.16 -0.18% 3.50% 10-Year Government Bond Yield
London (FTSE 100) 7777 58.17 0.75% 1.16% UK 1.31 1.32 1.38 1.29
DAX 12634 -14.65 -0.12% -2.2% Germany 0.40 0.41 0.48 0.37
France 0.73 0.73 0.78 0.65
FX Rate 8-Aug China 3.52 3.49 3.46 3.51
8-Aug (-1 day) (-1 week) Japan 0.11 0.11 0.12 0.04
USD/IDR 14,407 14,429 14,444 Korea 2.73 2.73 2.73 2.73
GBP/USD 1.288 1.294 1.313 Thailand 2.73 2.74 2.72 2.59
USD/JPY 111.0 111.4 111.7 Malaysia 4.04 4.02 4.04 4.09
USD/SGD 1.363 1.364 1.362 Singapore 2.45 2.44 2.47 2.41
USD/THB 33.23 33.22 33.16 Indonesia USD Bond Yield
USD/MYR 4.075 4.076 4.067 INDO-22 3.75 3.75 3.74 3.85
INDO-27 4.35 4.34 4.31 4.38
Macroeconomic Data INDO-47 4.93 4.94 4.96 5.09
Jul-18 Jun-18 May-18
Consumer Price Index (MoM) 0.28 0.59 0.21 Money Market 8-Aug
Consumer Price Index (YoY) 3.18 3.12 3.23 8-Aug (-1 day) (-1 week) (- 1 month) Core Inflation (YoY) 2.87 2.72 2.75 JIBOR
BI 7-Day RR Rate (%) 5.25 5.25 4.75 O/N 5.05 5.04 5.01 4.96
Foreign Reserve (US$ Bn) 118.3 119.8 122.9 1M 6.42 6.40 6.43 7.18
3M 7.00 7.01 7.08 7.35
Indonesia Sovereign CDS LIBOR
As of 2-year 5-year 10-year 1M 2.07 2.07 2.08 2.07
8-Aug 39.97 112.8 193.52 3M 2.34 2.34 2.35 2.34
(-1 Day) 39.30 110.97 191.12 6M 2.52 2.52 2.53 2.51
(-1 Week) 43.18 114.64 194.47 Indonesia Interest Rates
(-1 Month) 48.61 126.52 211.12 Deposit 1M 5.73 5.75 5.75 5.68
(-1 Year) 46.17 111.96 184.24 Lending 13.7 13.8 13.2 14.4
Benchmark 8-Aug (-1 day) Change Yield
FR0061 98.54 98.35 19 7.45%
FR0059 95.02 94.69 32 7.79%
FR0074 94.93 94.34 59 8.11%
FR0072 100.64 100.15 49 8.18%
Last Yield Most Active Corporate Bonds Last Price Last Yield Most Active Government Bonds Last Price
Government Bond Ownership As of August 07, 2018 (in Trillion)
Holders 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2-Aug-18 3-Aug-18 6-Aug-18 7-Aug-18
Banks 335.43 375.55 350.07 399.46 491.61 588.90 597.38 594.28 586.92
Bank Indonesia 44.44 41.63 148.91 134.25 141.83 103.45 92.99 95.31 96.64
Mutual Fund 42.50 45.79 61.60 85.66 104.00 113.5 113.3 113.3 113.4
Insurance 129.55 150.60 171.62 238.24 150.80 190.1 190.0 190.1 190.2
Foreign Investor 323.83 461.35 558.52 665.81 836.15 844.99 847.14 847.71 847.47
Pension Fund 39.47 43.30 49.83 87.28 198.06 209.46 209.48 209.53 209.68
Individual Investors 32.48 30.41 42.53 57.75 59.84 63.44 63.47 63.51 63.55
Others 47.56 61.32 78.76 104.84 117.48 132.21 132.25 132.31 132.26
Government Bonds Prices
Closing Price Data : 8-Aug-2018
Series
Maturity
TTM
Coupon
Price
YTM
Price (-1)
Price Spread (bps)
FR0038
15-Aug-18
0.02
11.600%
100.48
-21.58%
100.27
20.9
FR0048
15-Sep-18
0.10
9.000%
100.68
1.94%
100.57
11.0
FR0069
15-Apr-19
0.68
7.875%
101.03
6.29%
100.98
5.4
FR0036
15-Sep-19
1.10
11.500%
105.12
6.57%
105.17
-4.5
FR0031
15-Nov-20
2.27
11.000%
108.16
7.03%
108.07
8.7
FR0034
15-Jun-21
2.85
12.800%
114.07
7.23%
114.02
5.5
FR0053
15-Jul-21
2.94
8.250%
102.78
7.18%
102.44
34.0
FR0061
15-May-22
3.77
7.000%
98.54
7.45%
98.35
18.7
FR0035
15-Jun-22
3.85
12.900%
117.40
7.59%
117.20
20.2
FR0043
15-Jul-22
3.94
10.250%
108.92
7.58%
108.71
21.1
FR0063
15-May-23
4.77
5.625%
92.33
7.57%
92.17
16.8
FR0046
15-Jul-23
4.94
9.500%
107.00
7.76%
107.00
0.0
FR0039
15-Aug-23
5.02
11.750%
116.29
7.77%
116.20
8.9
FR0070
15-Mar-24
5.61
8.375%
102.81
7.74%
102.47
33.9
FR0044
15-Sep-24
6.11
10.000%
110.35
7.83%
110.20
15.0
FR0040
15-Sep-25
7.11
11.000%
116.85
7.85%
116.64
21.1
FR0037
15-Sep-26
8.11
12.000%
124.48
7.85%
124.40
8.6
FR0056
15-Sep-26
8.11
8.375%
103.43
7.79%
103.03
39.9
FR0059
15-May-27
8.77
7.000%
95.02
7.79%
94.69
32.3
FR0042
15-Jul-27
8.94
10.250%
114.75
7.91%
114.66
9.5
FR0047
15-Feb-28
9.53
10.000%
113.48
7.95%
113.41
7.7
FR0064
15-May-28
9.78
6.125%
89.40
7.69%
89.06
34.4
FR0071
15-Mar-29
10.61
9.000%
107.42
7.95%
107.04
38.4
FR0052
15-Aug-30
12.03
10.500%
118.00
8.13%
118.00
0.0
FR0073
15-May-31
12.78
8.750%
105.05
8.11%
104.43
61.8
FR0054
15-Jul-31
12.94
9.500%
110.80
8.13%
110.61
19.1
FR0058
15-Jun-32
13.86
8.250%
100.75
8.16%
101.25
-50.0
FR0074
15-Aug-32
14.03
7.500%
94.93
8.11%
94.34
59.2
FR0065
15-May-33
14.78
6.625%
87.83
8.05%
87.54
29.0
FR0068
15-Mar-34
15.61
8.375%
101.97
8.15%
101.40
56.9
FR0072
15-May-36
17.78
8.250%
100.64
8.18%
100.15
49.1
FR0045
15-May-37
18.78
9.750%
113.65
8.30%
113.649
0.0
FR0075
15-May-38
138.47
7.500%
94.14
8.10%
93.81
33.3
FR0050
15-Jul-38
19.95
10.500%
120.15
8.40%
119.75
39.5
FR0057
15-May-41
22.78
9.500%
110.27
8.47%
110.02
25.2
FR0062
15-Apr-42
23.70
6.375%
78.83
8.46%
78.83
0.0
FR0067
15-Jul-43
24.95
8.750%
102.66
8.49%
103.02
-36.3
FR0076
15-May-48
29.79
7.375%
88.60
8.49%
88.62
-2.9
Macroeconomic Indicator Calendar (19 - 23 Maret 2018)
Macroeconomic Indicator Calendar (August 06 - August 10 2018)
Source: Tradingeconomics, Bloomberg, and MCS Estimates (2018)
INDONESIA
Date Indicator Series Data Actual Previous Projection
06 Economic Growth Rate (QoQ) Quarter-II 4.21% -0.42% 2.02%
06 Economic Growth Rate (YoY) Quarter-II 5.27% 5.06% 5.10%
06 Consumer Confidence Jul-18 124.8 128.1 128
07 Foreign Exchange Reserves Jul-18 USD 118.3 billion USD 119.8 billion USD 119 billion
10 Current Account Quarter-II - USD -5.5 billion USD -5.6 billion
GLOBAL
Date Indicator Country Series Data Actual Previous Projection
07 Balance of Trade Germany Jun-18 EUR 21.8 billion EUR 19.7 billion EUR 24.5 billion
08 Balance of Trade China Jul-18 USD 28.05 billion USD 41.47 billion USD 26 billion
08 Crude Oil Inventory US Aug 03 - 2018 -1.35 million barrel 3.80 million barrel -1.40 million barrel Week Ended,
09 10-Year Note Auction US - - 2.96% -
09 Inflation Rate (YoY) China Jul-18 - 1.9% 2.1%
09 Wholesale Inventories (MoM) US Jun-18 - 0.4% 0%
09 Initial Jobless Claims US Week Ended, Aug 04-2018 - 218 thousand 217 thousand
09 Continuing Jobless Claims US Week Ended, July 28-2018 - 1724 thousand 1736 thousand
10 Econ. Growth Annual-ized Prelim. Japan Quarter-II - -0.6% 0.9%
10 Econ. Growth Prelim. (YoY) Kingdom Quarter-II United - 1.2% 1.4%
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