Morning Brief
Daily | Sept 12, 2017
IHSG (Jakarta Composite Index)
Sept 11 5,871.88
Chg +14.76pts (+0.25%)
Volume (bn shares) 67.14
Value (IDR tn) 5.37
Adv 190 Dec 137 Unc 237 Untr 121
Foreign Transaction
(IDR bn)Buy 1,363
Sell 1,979
Net Buy (Sell) (616)
Top Buy NB Val. Top Sell NS Val.
INDY 63.56 BBRI 191.96
BMRI 42.88 TLKM 61.01
ADHI 17.19 PGAS 52.81
ASII 11.38 GGRM 38.05
WIKA 10.69 BBCA 29.10
LQ-45 Index
Top Gainers & LosersGainers % Losers % ADHI 4.1% PGAS -5.3% WIKA 2.9% LPPF -3.5% SMRA 2.6% SCMA -2.9% BUMI 2.5% BRPT -2.8% LPKR 2.0% BMTR -2.0%
Government Bond Yield & FX
Last Chg. Tenor: 10 year 6.3980% -0.06% USD/IDR 13,156.00 -0.22% KRW/IDR 11.63 -0.51%Global Indexes
Index Last Chg. % Dow Jones 22,057.37 259.58 1.19% S&P 500 2,488.11 26.68 1.08% Nasdaq 6,432.26 72.07 1.13% FTSE 100 7,413.59 35.99 0.49% CAC 40 5,176.71 63.22 1.24% DAX 12,475.24 171.26 1.39% Nikkei 19,545.77 270.95 1.41% Hang Seng 27,955.13 286.66 1.04% Shanghai 3,376.42 11.18 0.33% KOSPI 2,359.08 15.36 0.66% EIDO 27.32 0.36 1.34%Commodities
Commodity Last Chg. %Gold (USD /troy oz.) 1,327.5 (19.1) -1.41%
Crude Oil (USD /bbl) 48.07 0.59 1.24%
Coal Newcas(USD/ton) 98.40 1.90 1.97%
Gas (USD /mmbtu) 2.95 1.90 2.08%
Nickel LME (USD /MT) 11,765 175.0 1.51%
CPO (MYR/Ton) 2,802 40.0 1.45%
Indonesian Market Recap
IHSG mampu melanjutkan penguatannya kemarin ditopang oleh penguatan
rupiah yang cukup signifikan ke posisi terkuat sejak 10 bulan terakhir. Top
Gainers: Property (+1,41%), Agri (+1,39%), Basic Industry (+0,77%)
Today’s Outlook: Penguatan Rupiah
Untuk hari ini kami mengestimasi IHSG bergerak menguat dengan support range
5845 - 5848 dan resistance range 5903 - 5900. Dari global sentimen positif
datang dari menguatnya pergerakan bursa global setelah meredanya kekuatiran
terkait badai Irma serta kondisi geopolitik di Korea Utara. Meredanya kekuatiran
akan dua hal ini juga telah memicu rally pada harga-harga komoditas. Dari
domestik, penguatan Rupiah yang signifikan dalam beberapa hari terakhir
semakin menunjukkan derasnya capital inflow yang ditopang oleh potensi
perbaikan ekonomi dan pelonggaran kebijakan moneter.
JCI Movement
JCI - one month Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
JCI - intraday
Stocks Recommendation (details on the next page)
Trading Buy: ITMG, AALI, LSIP
Global Market
United States
Harga batubara dunia kembali melanjutkan rally ditopang sentimen positif dari
melonjaknya data pemesanan mesin di Jepang.
Europe
Harga CPO dunia naik 1,45% kemarin ke posisi MYR2.802 per ton, yang
merupakan posisi tertinggi sejak Februari 2017.
Asia
Harga CPO dunia kembali melanjutkan penguatan setelah data inventori CPO
Malaysia sebesar 1,94 juta ton, lebih rendah dari estimasi sebesar 2 juta ton.
Company News
PTBA
: Stop Eksplorasi Tambang Baru
SDPC
: Akan Mengakuisisi Perusahaan Manufaktur
BWPT : Produksi Diproyeksi Naik 20%
BCIP
: Membidik Marketing Sales Rp283 Miliar
Domestic & Global News
Penjualan Eceran di Indonesia Meningkat pada Agustus
Dewan Keamanan PBB Menyetujui Sanksi terhadap Korea Utara
Indonesia Economic Data
Monthly Indicator Last Prev. BI 7 Day Rev Repo Rate 4.50% 4.75%FX Reserve (USD bn) 128.79 127.76
Trd Balance (USD bn) (0.27) 1.63
Exports Yoy 41.12% -11.82%
Imports Yoy 54.02% -17.21%
Inflation Yoy 3.82% 3.88%
Quarterly Indicator Last Prev.
Real GDP 5.01% 4.94%
Current Acc (USD bn) (4.96) (2.10)
Govt Spending Yoy -1.93% -4.05%
FDI (USD bn) 5.79 (7.71)
Business Confidence 103.42 106.70
Stocks Recommendation
ITMG
Last = 20450
Analysis
Harga batubara dunia kembali melanjutkan
rally
ditopang
sentimen
positif
dari
melonjaknya data pemesanan mesin di
Jepang.
Range
20000 - 21750
Action
Trading Buy. Cut Loss If Below 20000
AALI
Last = 15100
Analysis
Harga CPO dunia naik 1,45% kemarin ke posisi
MYR2.802 per ton, yang merupakan posisi
tertinggi sejak Februari 2017.
Range
14975 - 15600
Action
Trading Buy. Cut Loss If Below 14975
LSIP
Last = 1410
Analysis
Harga CPO dunia kembali melanjutkan
penguatan setelah data inventori CPO
Malaysia hanya sebesar 1,94 juta ton, lebih
rendah dari estimasi sebesar 2 juta ton.
Range
1385 - 1460
Action
Trading buy. Cut Loss If Below 1385
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
Sector Rotation
Source: Bloomberg
Relative Rotation Graph - Last 10 Days
98 99 100 101 102 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 Agriculture Mining Infrastructure Basic Ind. Consumer Finance Misc Ind. Trade Property
Lagging
Improving
Leading
Weakening
Relative Valuation
Source: Bloomberg Last Price End of Last Year Price YTD Change (%) 1 Year Change (%) Market Cap (IDR tn) Price / BVPS Price / EPS (TTM) EV/ EBITDA (TTM) Return on Equity (%) EVA Spread (%) Dividend Yield TTM (%) Sales Growth Yoy (%) EPS Growth Yoy (%) Adjusted Beta JCI Index 10.9 11.2 6,463.1 Finance 1,819.5 BBCA 18,900 15,500 21.9 25.6 466.0 3.9 21.6 N/A 19.3 6.0 1.1 8.6 14.4 1.0 BBRI 14,950 11,675 28.1 27.2 368.8 2.4 13.3 N/A 19.4 10.9 2.9 9.7 4.0 1.5 BMRI 13,200 11,575 14.0 21.7 308.0 2.0 19.0 N/A 10.8 3.4 2.0 6.5 (32.1) 1.5 BBNI 7,225 5,525 30.8 27.3 134.7 1.5 10.0 N/A 15.6 0.8 2.9 15.2 25.3 1.3 BDMN 5,200 3,710 40.2 41.3 49.8 1.3 16.8 N/A 8.2 0.1 1.9 (7.9) 11.5 1.5 BBTN 3,000 1,740 72.4 50.0 31.8 1.6 11.2 N/A 15.2 (2.0) 1.6 14.6 41.1 0.8 BJBR 2,500 3,390 (26.3) 51.5 24.2 2.5 20.5 N/A 12.5 (1.6) 3.6 5.6 (16.2) 1.0 BJTM 680 570 19.3 17.2 10.2 1.4 8.4 N/A 17.8 3.2 6.4 2.5 16.2 1.2 Consumer 1,407.1 HMSP 3,770 3,830 (1.6) (3.1) 438.5 15.9 34.7 25.5 45.7 30 2.9 7.2 18.2 0.9 UNVR 50,525 38,800 30.2 13.0 385.5 78.6 57.4 39.6 137.1 128.2 1.7 9.8 9.4 1.0 GGRM 66,125 63,900 3.5 8.2 127.2 3.4 18.4 10.8 18.9 7.2 3.9 8.4 3.7 1.0 ICBP 8,700 8,575 1.5 (7.7) 101.5 5.6 27.3 16.9 21.9 12.8 1.8 8.6 20.0 1.3 KLBF 1,725 1,515 13.9 0.9 80.9 6.7 34.1 22.4 20.8 5.2 1.3 8.3 14.7 1.2 INDF 8,600 7,925 8.5 4.9 75.5 2.5 19.1 9.1 14.5 (3.2) 2.7 4.2 47.8 1.2 ROTI 1,250 1,600 (21.9) (19.9) 6.3 4.6 31.5 15.4 15.3 0.2 1.1 16.0 3.5 0.9 Infrastructure 844.20 TLKM 4,710 3,962 18.9 16.8 474.8 5.5 21.7 8.0 26.3 13.4 4.2 13.5 24.4 0.9 PGAS 1,685 2,700 (37.6) (40.0) 40.8 1.0 14.8 8.2 6.6 (5.6) 4.5 (4.4) (23.5) 1.2 JSMR 5,925 4,320 37.2 24.8 43.0 3.0 21.1 13.5 15.5 (3.6) 1.3 69.2 28.7 1.1 EXCL 3,820 2,310 65.4 42.5 40.8 1.9 140.9 7.2 1.4 (12.6) N/A (6.7) N/A 1.3 TBIG 6,800 4,980 36.5 22.0 30.8 22.7 32.7 15.5 55.3 (1.0) 2.2 8.5 (6.3) 0.8 Trade 691.7 UNTR 31,850 21,250 49.9 82.0 118.8 2.8 18.1 8.8 16.3 0.5 1.7 (7.7) 29.8 1.4 LPPF 9,675 15,125 (36.0) (46.5) 28.2 15.9 12.8 8.5 157.4 89.5 5.0 9.9 13.3 1.2 SCMA 1,990 2,800 (28.9) (32.3) 29.1 7.3 19.3 13.5 39.7 21.1 1.8 6.8 (1.5) 1.1 AKRA 7,200 6,000 20.0 5.9 28.8 4.0 28.3 21.0 14.5 (1.7) 2.1 (23.0) (3.0) 0.7 MNCN 1,330 1,755 (24.2) (32.8) 19.0 2.0 16.0 8.4 12.9 (0.4) 3.2 4.4 17.4 1.2 ACES 1,065 835 27.5 10.9 18.3 5.9 22.7 17.6 28.1 8.0 1.5 4.1 20.8 1.3 BMTR 484 615 (21.3) (46.5) 6.9 0.7 N/A 5.7 (0.9) (4.8) 1.0 (1.1) 194.0 1.5 Property 422.5 BSDE 1,845 1,755 5.1 (11.3) 35.5 1.6 11.9 11.7 14.2 (3.4) 0.3 5.0 (17.0) 1.5 LPKR 750 720 4.2 (27.9) 17.3 0.9 23.8 14.5 4.0 (7.7) 0.3 18.6 64.8 1.0 PWON 655 565 15.9 6.5 31.5 3.4 18.8 12.9 19.4 1.5 0.7 4.7 32.4 1.4 WSKT 2,130 2,550 (16.5) (17.8) 28.9 2.5 8.5 13.8 22.5 (3.3) 1.8 68.1 63.5 0.9 SMRA 1,000 1,325 (24.5) (41.0) 14.4 2.3 42.9 12.9 5.5 (4.3) 0.5 (4.0) (63.6) 1.8 CTRA 1,160 1,335 (13.1) (23.4) 21.5 1.7 16.6 13.4 9.0 (4.4) 0.4 (10.3) (33.6) 1.4 PTPP 2,620 3,810 (31.2) (37.1) 16.2 1.6 14.7 7.7 16.9 (2.6) 1.9 15.8 13.5 0.8 WIKA 1,960 2,360 (16.9) (32.4) 17.6 1.5 12.0 N/A 14.8 (1.7) 1.7 15.0 68.3 0.9 ADHI 2,030 2,080 (2.4) (22.2) 7.2 1.3 18.6 10.7 7.4 (4.1) 1.3 17.8 (56.6) 0.9 ASRI 346 352 (1.7) (27.0) 6.8 0.9 10.3 8.4 8.9 (3.0) 0.4 (2.4) (14.7) 1.3 APLN 274 210 30.5 (11.6) 5.6 0.6 5.2 5.7 13.3 1.5 0.7 0.6 (21.3) 0.9 Misc Ind. 383.4 ASII 7,900 8,275 (4.5) (4.0) 319.8 2.7 18.4 12.3 15.8 (6.1) 2.1 (1.7) 4.8 1.6 SRIL 356 230 54.8 38.0 6.6 1.4 8.0 6.8 19.2 1.9 0.8 9.3 6.7 0.5 Basic Ind. 454.5 INTP 19,400 15,400 26.0 13.8 71.4 3.0 30.5 20.9 9.7 (7.2) 4.8 (13.7) (11.2) 1.5 SMGR 10,450 9,175 13.9 4.0 62.0 2.2 17.0 13.2 13.4 (3.7) 2.9 (3.0) 0.0 1.2 CPIN 2,760 3,090 (10.7) (22.7) 45.3 3.1 22.2 9.9 14.1 1.4 2.0 27.9 29.1 1.1 WTON 580 825 (29.7) (36.6) 5.1 2.0 18.5 10.3 11.9 (1.0) 1.7 31.3 56.7 1.1 Mining 328.9 ADRO 1,900 1,695 12.1 49.6 60.8 1.4 10.6 5.0 13.9 3.7 2.2 (6.0) 119.3 1.6 INCO 2,980 2,820 5.7 5.7 29.6 1.2 N/A 9.4 0.0 (8.7) N/A (26.0) N/A 0.7 PTBA 12,350 12,500 (1.2) 22.0 28.5 2.2 8.4 5.7 28.9 9.3 2.3 2.4 1.2 1.3 ANTM 690 895 (22.9) - 16.6 0.9 N/A 24.7 (2.4) (8.5) N/A (13.5) N/A 0.7 ITMG 20,450 16,875 21.2 83.4 23.1 1.9 8.6 3.4 22.7 11.7 7.7 (14.0) 100.0 0.9Agriculture 111.3
AALI 15,100 16,775 (10.0) (7.6) 29.1 1.7 12.9 N/A 13.5 1.6 3.1 8.1 203.2 0.6 SSMS 1,500 1,400 7.1 (9.1) 14.3 4.0 19.0 12.1 22.5 1.1 1.2 14.8 9.2 0.8 LSIP 1,410 1,740 (19.0) (10.8) 9.6 1.2 10.2 5.2 12.5 2.6 2.5 (8.2) (4.4) 0.4