INDONESIA’S
POLITICAL OUTLOOK
2018
• Political stability has an important role in Indonesia’s economic growth. • A stable political environment is associated with the certainty
concerning the security of property rights, and vice versa. • How do you measure political stability?
• Among other things, political stability can be assessed whether the process of transition of local and national political leadership runs normally and peacefully or not.
• Accordingly, my presentation will focus on the simultaneous local elections in 2018, followed by the simultaneous legislative and presidential elections 2019.
• What would Indonesia’s political landscape look like in 2018?
• Political climate in the country will heat up as parties brace for simultaneous local elections in June 2018.
• Indonesia will also hold the presidential election and
legislative election concurrently in 2019.
Java is the Key
Challenges and Threats to Local Democracy
The rise of identity politics
after the 2017 Jakarta
gubernatorial elections. Identity politics as a winning template in 2018 and 2019.
Hollier-than-thou battle; the
calendar of the simulatenous local elections that will be held immediately after the end of Ramadhan 2018.
81.1 78.9 82.9 75.9 73.8 74.9 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Mei 2014 Mar-Apr 2016 Ags 2017 Very/quite often consider religion in making decision
Feeling very/quite pious
Trend in pious feeling and considering religion (%)
(Base: Muslim Respondent)
47.9 53.2 41.4 49.6 40.3 48.2 39.3 47.4 30 35 40 45 50 55 2016 2017 President Vice President Governor Regent/Mayor
Do you mind IF: Non-Muslims becoming...? ... (% who answered “Yes, I do mind”) (Base: Muslim Respondents)
Increasing Rates of Political Intolerance
In the past year, Muslims have become increasingly intolerant of non-Muslims in politics (becoming head of government).
Alarm bells for Jokowi
and his re-election
Jokowi’s Approval Rating
10 8 60 27 2 2 9 65 22 2 2 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70Very satisfied Quite satisfied Quite
dissatisfied dissatisfiedVery Don't know
80 69 65 71 63 56565558 67 6467 54 50 5556585354 45 56 63 6970 74 808079 85 75 70 6566 6263 59 5760 535456565452 58 51 56 6969 62 41 5353 67 5962 676868 74 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 No v' 0 4 D es '0 0 4 M ar '0 5 Ju n '0 5 S ep t' 0 5 D es ' 0 5 Ja n ' 0 6 M ar ' 0 6 Ju n '0 6 S ep '0 6 No v' 0 6 D es '0 6 Fe b ' 0 7 M ar '0 7 M ei ' 0 7 Ju n '0 7 S ep '0 7 D es '0 7 M ar '0 8 Ju n '0 8 S ep '0 8 O kt '0 8 D es '0 8 Fe b '0 9 M ar '0 9 A p r' 0 9 M ei '0 9 Ju n '0 9 Ju l'0 9 No v' 0 9 Ja n '1 0 M ar '1 0 A u g '1 0 O kt '1 0 D es '1 0 M ei '1 1 Ju l'1 1 D es '1 1 Fe b '1 2 S ep '1 2 D es '1 2 M ar '1 3 A p r' 1 3 Ju n '1 3 O kt '1 3 D es '1 3 A p r' 1 4 Ju l'1 4 O kt '1 4 Ja n '1 5 Ju n '1 5 O kt '1 5 D es '1 5 Ja n '1 6 M ar '1 6 A p r' 1 6 Ju n '1 6 A g s' 1 6 S ep t' 1 7 D es '1 7 SBY Jokowi
2 3 2 9 3 3 2 3 2 8 3 1 2 7 2 4 17 2 5 3 13 2 3 83 9 4 2 5 15 2 5 6 3 3 4 03 9 2 9 3 4 3 2 3 7 3 73 9 3 4 3 5 3 8 3 7 3 9 3 6 3 4 3 7 3 2 3 53 7 2 7 3 7 3 3 2 4 2 2 3 0 3 4 3 2 3 63 7 3 8 4 3 5 3 4 3 3 8 5 0 4 2 3 2 4 5 4 9 5 8 4 4 4 0 3 7 3 1 3 0 2 7 2 1 2 1 18 3 1 2 1 2 4 3 4 2 6 3 0 2 6 2 8 2 6 2 5 2 2 2 1 2 3 2 1 2 6 2 6 2 4 2 0 2 3 19 2 5 16 2 8 3 2 4 2 2 72 8 2 6 2 9 2 3 19 18 2 6 2 4 2 2 3 7 2 9 3 1 3 7 4 7 3 2 2 9 4 1 2 8 10 15 2 0 2 5 3 0 3 5 4 0 4 5 5 0 5 5 6 0 B e t t e r N o C ha nge Wo rs e 12
Since the beginning of 2016, more people stated that Indonesia’s economic condition is better off.
Indonesia’s Economic Condition
41 2829 37 32 47 53 43 38 50 42 32 45 49 58 44 40 37 3130 27 2121 18 31 2124 34 26 30 26282625 212321 262624 202319 25 16 2832 42 27282629 23 19 18 6 6 6 8 7 9 17 15 7 6 6 7 7 9 11121211 9 8 7 6 4 3 2 4 3 6 6 7 6 5 4 4 4 6 6 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 5 5 7 6 3 4 4 4 3 3 4 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Se p '0 3 O kt '0 4 D es '0 4 A pr '0 5 Ju n '0 5 Se pt D es '0 5 Se pt D es '0 6 A pr '0 7 Ju n '0 7 Se p '0 7 D es '0 7 A pr '0 8 Ju n '0 8 Se p '0 8 O kt '0 8 D es '0 8 Fe b '0 9 M ar '0 9 A pr '0 9 M ei '0 9 Ju n' 09 Ju l'0 9 N ov '0 9 Ja n' 10 M ar '1 0 A ug '1 0 O kt '1 0 D es '1 0 M ei '1 1 Ju l'1 1 D es '1 1 Fe b' 12 D es '1 2 M ar '1 3 A pr '1 3 O kt '1 3 D es '1 3 Ja n' 14 M rt '1 4 A pr '1 4 M ei '1 4 Ju n' 14 Ju l'1 4 O kt '1 4 Ju n' 15 O kt '1 5 D es '1 5 Ja n' 16 M ar '1 6 A pr '1 6 Ju n' 16 Ju l'1 6 A gs '1 7 Se pt '1 7 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
Parallelism between Perception on Economic Condition and
Inflation Rate (%)
14 2 0 3 2 3 7 3 7 3 4 3 9 2 9 2 6 2 8 2 6 2 9 2 7 2 7 2 7 2 4 2 6 2 6 2 3 2 3 2 3 2 4 2 5 2 7 2 8 2 4 2 4 3 7 2 3 3 1 2 2 19 2 7 2 7 2 9 2 9 3 3 3 0 2 1 19 17 17 2 3 15 2 9 3 4 2 3 2 8 2 4 2 7 3 2 3 6 3 4 3 0 3 2 3 3 3 2 3 1 3 4 3 2 2 4 3 3 2 8 2 5 19 3 6 18 3 8 3 6 2 8 2 3 18 2 1 2 1 2 1 3 7 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 7 2 8 2 2 2 5 2 3 2 4 3 9 3 1 10 15 2 0 2 5 3 0 3 5 4 0 4 5 B e t t e r N o C ha nge Wo rs e
Improved and stable political condition since 2016.
4 1 4 9 5 9 6 1 5 9 5 4 3 7 4 3 3 5 3 5 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 3 2 8 3 1 3 2 2 8 3 0 3 0 2 6 3 1 3 1 3 5 3 3 3 1 3 8 3 3 4 0 3 2 3 1 4 0 4 3 4 1 4 1 4 3 4 5 14 14 15 10 11 15 3 2 3 2 2 9 3 0 3 1 3 1 3 5 4 2 3 9 3 4 3 6 3 6 3 6 3 5 4 1 3 5 3 1 3 7 3 3 3 6 2 7 3 5 2 2 3 8 3 9 2 5 2 2 2 0 2 5 2 1 2 0 3 7 4 6 4 8 4 1 4 6 4 3 2 2 14 18 2 3 18 2 2 0 10 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 B e t t e r N o C ha nge Wo rs e
Improved and stable law enforcement since 2016
. 16 5 2 5 9 6 9 6 7 5 5 5 9 5 9 5 5 4 8 5 5 5 4 5 3 5 2 4 7 4 5 5 0 4 6 4 6 4 7 4 5 5 2 5 0 5 4 4 9 5 2 6 1 5 3 6 0 4 6 4 8 5 9 5 9 5 8 5 9 6 0 6 2 10 10 10 9 2 0 13 16 15 2 1 13 16 15 2 3 2 1 2 1 2 1 19 2 0 19 2 1 16 15 17 19 17 10 16 9 2 6 2 4 13 11 13 13 14 11 5 5 5 7 6 0 5 7 5 9 5 8 10 12 10 11 18 14 0 10 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 B e t t e r N o C ha nge Wo rs e
Since the beginning of 2016, assessments of the security situation are substantially improved in Indonesia.
27 30 32 34 41 42 43 47 50 52 52 52 54 54 56 56 60 65 72
Menyediakan lapangan kerja Mengurangi jumlah orang miskin Membuat harga-harga kebutuhan pokok agar terjangkau warga pada
umumnya
Mengurangi perbedaan harga barang di Indonesia bagian barat dengan bagian timur
Menekan pada tingkat yang rendah korupsi uang Negara Meningkatkan pemerataan kesejahteraan bagi warga Membangun tol laut Membuat agar sekolah dan perguruan tinggi terjangkau oleh warga
Membangun wilayah perbatasan Membuat obatan-obatan terjangkau warga pada umumnya Mengurangi atau bahkan menghilangkan ancaman Narkoba terhadap
warga
Menekan atau bahkan menghilangkan rasa terancam warga darikelompok teroris
Menjamin kesetaraan hak-hak warga negara apapun latar belakang suku, agama, ras, maupun daerahnya
Membangun jalan trans/lintas antar provinsi di luar Pulau Jawa Membangun jalan tol di luar Pulau Jawa Membangun sarana transportasi umum Membuat agar pelayanan kesehatan di puskesmas/rumah sakit
terjangkau oleh warga pada umumnya
Membangun jalan-jalan umum
Better or Much Better
Public Evaluation of the Performance of the Jokowi
Administration in Tackling Various Problems
Semi-Open Simulation: Presidential Hopefuls (Sept’17)
18 13.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.10.1 0.1 0.1 0.20.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.20.2 0.2 0.2 0.30.4 0.4 0.40.5 0.90.9 1.01.5 1.71.7 2.02.2 3.7 19.0 47.3 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 TT/TJ Lainnya Kristiani Herrawati Yudhoyono (Bu Ani)M Romahurmuziy Moeldoko Muhaimin IskandarPramono Anung Pramono Edhie WibowoPuan Maharani Sri Mulyani IndrawatiYenny Wahid Syahrul Yasin LimpoSaid Aqil Siradj M Sohibul ImanZulkifli Hasan Hidayat Nurwahid Hutomo Mandala Putra (Tommy Soeharto)Surya Paloh Ganjar PranowoSaifullah Yusuf Tri Rismaharini M Zainul Majdi (Tuan Guru Bajang/TGB)Budi Gunawan Chairul Tanjung M Yusril Ihza MahendraTito Karnavian Wiranto Ahmad HeryawanSoekarwo Khofifah Indar ParawansaMoh. Mahfud MD Rhoma Irama Habib Rizieq ShihabRidwan Kamil Megawati SoekarnoputriM Jusuf Kalla Agus Harimurti YudhoyonoHary Tanoesudibjo Gatot Nurmantyo Basuki Tjahaja Purnama (Ahok)Anies Baswedan Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY)Prabowo Subianto Joko Widodo (Jokowi)Semi-Open Simulation Trend
46.7 47.3 53.8 15.5 19.0 18.5 0.0 2.2 1.7 0.0 1.7 1.2 24.5 16.4 12.9 13.3 13.4 11.9 0 10 20 30 40 50 60Aug'16 Sept'17 Dec'17 (SMRC)
Joko Widodo (Jokowi) Prabowo Subianto
Anies Baswedan Gatot Nurmantyo Lainnya
Three Names Simulation: Presidential Elections
20 4.2 57.3 28.8 9.7 61.4 25.7 9.0 3.9 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70Anies Baswedan Joko Widodo (Jokowi) Prabowo Subianto TT/TJ
Head-to-Head Simulation
58.9 31.3 9.8 27.1 8.8 64.1 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70Joko Widodo (Jokowi) Prabowo Subianto TT/TJ
Potensi Ancaman
Menguatnya politik identitas. Pilkada Jakarta jadi winning template. Terutama
Jawa Barat, Jawa Tengah, Sumatra Utara dan Kalimantan Barat.
Polarisasi makin menajam. Media sosial menjadi media asosial penyebar
hoax.
Politik uang tingkat elit dan massa.
Kelelahan berpartisipasi karena kalendar pemilu yang bertubi-tubi. Perang bintang.
6.7 12.6 10.6 4.9 9.0 1.4 7.3 7.9 6.8 33.7 18.5 14.0 19.0 22.4 21.6 14.5 14.8 4.5 11.8 7.5 20.9 10.2 7.1 6.4 6.0 7.6 10.7 8.2 5.3 6.5 3.8 5.3 1.9 2.6 1.8 1.5 1.0 1.3 0.9 0.9 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 1999 2004 2009 2014 NASDEM PKB PKS PDIP GOLKAR GERINDRA DEMOKRAT PAN PPP HANURA PBB PKPI
21 18 21 18 18 14 17 14 12 14 10 12 14 13 15 15 13 12 16 10 11 11 10 0 5 1 0 1 5 2 0 2 5 M ay' 11 Ju n'1 1 Ju l'1 1 De c'1 1 Fe b'1 2 M ay' 12 Ju n'1 2 Oct '12 De c'1 2 M ar '13 Oct '13 De c'1 3 Ja n'1 4 Fe b-M rt' 14 M rt' 14 Ap r'1 4 M ay' 14 Ju n'1 4 Ja n'1 5 Ap r'1 6 Ju n'1 6 Au g'1 6 Se pt '17
Proportion of voters stating they felt close to a party, 2011-2017 (%)
There are people who feel closer to certain political party and some who are not. How about you, do you feelSemi-Open: Which party or candidate from which party would you vote if the legislative election were held today (%) 23.6 12.0 10.3 8.0 5.5 4.6 3.3 2.5 2.0 1.9 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.4 24.2 27.6 12.1 8.9 7.7 6.3 3.3 3.8 2.6 2.9 2.0 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 1.4 19.8 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 PD IP G olk ar G er in dr a D em ok ra t PK B PPP PKS Perin do N as D em PA N Han ur a PB B PSI PKPI Oth er s D on 't k no w / no an sw er
Sept'17 (Indikator) Dec'17 (SMRC)
• In the last decade, experts have praised Indonesia’s democratic stability. Free, fair and highly competitive elections are held regularly.
• However, weak rule of law and systematic corruption remain pervasive. • Events and trends since 2014 has shown the rising of a sectarian brand of
political populism.
• Infrastructure projects appeared to be the driver of Jokowi’s rising popularity. However, among respondents surveyed felt that despite the overall increase, they had not seen significant changes in the economy.
• Jokowi will rely on populist, but economically correct, policies to increase his approval rating ahead of the 2019 elections. i.e. cash for work, PKH.
• Despite Jokowi’s high electability, his electability level is not safe for an
incumbent. The available data from the Jakarta polls shows that an overwhelming approval rating can be trumped by whipping up primordial sentiments or other emotions unrelated to the assessment of performance.
• Further, smear campaigns tailored specifically to Jokowi —depicting him as a communist, secularist, and defender of blasphemy – are already well underway.
