Indosat
Bloomberg: ISAT:IJ | Reuters: ISAT.JK
Samuel Equity Research
25 April 2017
www.samuel.co.id Target Price Rp 8,200 Last Price Rp 7,225 Potential Upside 13.5% JCI Index 5,664 Share Issued (mn) 5,434 Market Cap. (Rp bn) 39,260 52-Weeks High/Low 7,150/ 5,150 Avg Daily Vol 294,062
Free Float 21%
Nominal Value 100
EPS 2016 Rp 203
Relative to JCI Chart
Company Background Shareholder Structure Republik Indonesia 14.0% Ooredoo Asia 65.0% Public 21.0%
BUY (Maintain)
PT Indosat Ooredoo Tbk beroperasi di bidang telekomunikasi yang meliputi layanan telepon selular dan layanan data atau Multimedia, Internet & Data communication. Saat ini perseroan sedang mengkampanyekan REBORN sebagai brand identity terbaru.
-40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Jan-15 Jun-15 Nov-15 Apr-16 Sep-16 Feb-17 ISAT IJ Equity
JCI Index
Arandi Ariantara +62 21 2854 8148
Enjoying online transportation boon
Pertumbuhan pelanggan prabayar sebesar 30,6 juta sejak maraknya
transportasi online di 3Q14 kami lihat menjadi katalis lompatan trafik
data ISAT. Kombinasi ARPU terjangkau dan promo data rollover kami
yakini menjadi ujung tombak ISAT memonetisasi pertumbuhan
pelanggan prabayar. BUY dengan TP Rp 8.200, potensi upside +13%.
Lompatan trafik data didukung oleh tambahan 30,6 juta pelanggan
prabayar. Trafik data ISAT di FY16 melonjak sebesar 147% yoy, dimana
kami sinyalir, salah satunya merupakan imbas dari maraknya pengguna
ataupun driver transportasi online. Sejak kemunculan transportasi online di
mid- 2014, pelanggan pra-bayar ISAT telah bertambah 30,6 juta (3Q14 –
4Q16). Penambahan ini lebih besar 34% dibanding periode 1Q10 – 2Q14.
Kombinasi ARPU prabayar terjangkau dan promo data rollover, ...
Promo data rollover (sisa kuota bisa digunakan di bulan berikutnya) serta
dengan Average Revenue per User (ARPU) prabayar ISAT sebesar Rp 24
ribu, terendah dibanding peers (TLKM: Rp 42 ribu, EXCL: Rp 34 ribu), ISAT
berpotensi memonetisasi pelanggan prabayar lebih banyak dibanding peers.
… menjadi katalis penambahan pelanggan prabayar kedepannya. Masih
berkembangnya transportasi online memberi potensi semakin besarnya
penetrasi pengguna data (data user) di Indonesia. Secara konservatif, kami
mengestimasikan pelanggan ISAT bertambah 7 juta menjadi sebesar 92 juta
dimana sekitar 53% merupakan pengguna data.
Pendapatan data 2017 kami estimasi tumbuh 47% yoy. Kami
mengestimasikan pendapatan data ISAT di 2017 dapat tumbuh 47% yoy ke
Rp 15,2 triliun, seiring dengan asumsi kenaikan trafik data sebesar 20%
serta berakhirnya perang tarif. Kami memakai asumsi tarif data 2017
sebesar Rp 1.000/MB/bulan/user, naik 18% yoy.
Laba bersih kami prediksi tumbuh 79% yoy. Manajemen berencana
memangkas porsi hutang US$. Kami proyeksikan laba bersih ISAT ‘17E
dapat tumbuh 79% yoy ke Rp 1,9 triliun. Sementara rencana manajemen
untuk mengecilkan porsi hutang US$ menjadi sebesar 5% (FY16: 12%),
mengurangi resiko nilai tukar mata uang di 2017.
Mempertahankan BUY dan merevisi TP Rp 8.200. Positioning tepat
menyasar pengguna prabayar, menjadi katalis revisi TP kami menjadi Rp
8.200 (sebelumnya Rp 7.200), TP ini merefleksikan potensi upside sebesar
13%. BUY. Resiko investasi: perang tarif yang menyasar pasar prabayar.
Forecast and Valuation (at closing price Rp7,225 per share)
Y/E Dec (Rp Bn) 15A 16A 17E 18E
Operating Revenue 26,769 29,185 32,581 35,355 EBIT 2,362 3,941 4,603 5,250 EBITDA 11,131 12,913 14,456 15,619 Net Profit (1,310) 1,105 1,978 2,760 EPS (Rp) (241) 203 364 508 BVPS (Rp) 2,297 2,457 2,719 3,045 DPS (Rp) - - 102 182 EV/EBITDA (x) 5.2 4.4 3.6 3.0 P/E Ratio (x) (30) 36 20 14 P/BV Ratio (x) 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.4 Net Gearing (x) 1.5 1.3 0.8 0.5
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Page 2 of 6
Figure 1. Aplikasi transportasi online
(Sumber: SSI Research)
Figure 2. Akumulasi pelanggan prabayar dan trafik data
(juta pelanggan)
(Tb)
(0.7)
9.0
3.3
2.0
0.5
0.8
-10.7
1.1
3.9
20,911
29,891
39,880 46,027
55,871 57,276 63,987
93,641
146,060
188,101
(30,000)
20,000
70,000
120,000
170,000
220,000
(2.0)
-2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
3Q14
4Q14
1Q15
2Q15
3Q15
4Q15
1Q16
2Q16
3Q16
4Q16
Net Additions Data usage1 April 2016: Terbitnya
Permen Perhubungan
No. 32/2016
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Page 3 of 6
Figure 3. Data rollover promo
Source: SSI research
Figure 4. ARPU Prepaid vs peers
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Page 4 of 6
Figure 5. Pendapatan dan pelanggan, 2015 – 2018E
(Rp triliun)
(juta)
26.8
29.2
32.6
35.4
69.0
84.7
91.9
99.1
60
70
80
90
100
110
20
25
30
35
40
2015
2016
2017E
2018E
Pendapatan
Pelanggan
Source: Company, SSI research
Figure 6. Laba bersih, 2015 – 2018E
(Rp triliun)
-1.3
1.1
2.0
2.8
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2015
2016
2017E
2018E
Source: Company, SSI Research
Figure 7. Perbandingan 2G/3G coverage operator telco
Total frekuensi Wilayah populasi Coverage 2G Coverage 2G Coverage 3G Coverage 3G
(MHz)
(km2)
(km2)
(%)
(km2)
(%)
TLKM
110,512
1,121,226
1,008,000
90
619,000
55
ISAT
52,326
1,121,226
559,000
50
525,000
47
EXCL
59,040
1,121,226
665,000
59
211,000
19
Operator
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Page 5 of 6
Key Financial
Profit and Loss Cash Flow
Rp bn 15A 16A 17E 18E Yr-end Dec (Rp bn) 15A 16A 17E 18E
Cellular revenue 21,896 24,095 27,062 29,388 Net profit (1,310) 1,105 1,978 2,760
Operating Revenue 26,769 29,185 32,581 35,355 Depreciation & amort. 8,769 8,973 9,853 10,369
Operating Expenses 24,406 25,244 27,978 30,105 Working capital 806 (326) 409 306
Operating profit 2,362 3,941 4,603 5,250 Operating cash flow 8,265 9,752 12,240 13,434
EBITDA 11,131 12,913 14,456 15,619 Net - Capital expenditure (9,186) (5,131) (6,112) (8,000)
EBITDA margin (%) 41.6 44.2 44.4 44.2 Investing cash flow (7,145) (7,291) (6,112) (8,000) Other income (exp.) (4,148) (2,145) (1,754) (1,351) Net - Borrowings 9 (3,968) (3,698) (3,673) Pre-tax profit (1,786) 1,795 2,849 3,899 Other financing (1,094) (283) (341) (989) Income tax - net 622 (520) (712) (975) Financing cash flow (1,085) (4,251) (4,039) (4,662) Minority interest (147) (171) (159) (165) Net - Cash flow 34 (1,791) 2,089 772 Net profit (1,310) 1,105 1,978 2,760 Cash at beginning 3,480 3,623 1,850 3,940 Net profit margin (%) (4.9) 3.8 6.1 7.8 Cash at ending 3,514 1,832 3,940 4,712
Balance Sheet Key Ratios
Yr-end Dec (Rp bn) 15A 16A 17E 18E Yr-end Dec (Rp bn) 15A 16A 17E 18E
Cash & ST Investment 3,701 1,959 3,940 4,712 ROE (%) -10.5 8.3 13.4 16.7
Receivables 2,730 2,707 3,022 3,280 ROA (%) -2.4 2.2 4.0 5.8
Inventories 39 79 88 95 Revenue growth (%) 9.0 11.6 8.5 0.0
Others 3,448 3,328 3,328 3,328 EBITDA growth (%) 25.5 16.0 11.9 8.0
Total current assets 9,919 8,073 10,378 11,414 EPS growth (% ) na na 79.0 39.5
Net fixed assets 41,822 39,078 35,254 32,904 Interest coverage (x) 0.8 1.7 2.9 4.0 Other fixed assets 3,648 3,687 3,667 3,648 Debt to equity (%) 180.2 141.7 111.4 77.3
Total assets 55,389 50,839 49,299 47,966 Net gearing (% ) 150.6 127.0 84.8 48.8
Payables 764 845 937 1,008
ST. debt and curr. maturity 7,586 8,366 4,626 3,784 Major Assumptions
Other current liabilities 11,703 9,875 10,516 11,014 15A 16A 17E 18E
LT. debt 20,057 15,309 15,351 12,520 Subscriber (Mn users) 69.0 84.7 91.9 99.1
Other long term liabilities 22,067 21,353 18,345 18,073 ARPU blended (Rp/month) 26 25 24 24
Total liabilities 42,125 36,662 33,696 30,593 BTS 50,687 56,483 63,483 70,483
Minority initerest 781 827 827 827
DISCLAIMERS : Analyst Certification : The views expressed in this research accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia
