Perbaikan Supply Chain di Sektor Logistik PT. Central Proteinaprima

LAMPIRAN

LOSS OPPORTUNITY

COST PT. CENTRAL PROTEINAPRIMA TAHUN 2015

Loss Opportunity Cost

Produk Irawan 9001 Tahun 2015

Bulan Stok (Kg)

Produksi (Kg)

Permintaan (Kg)

Selisih (Kg)

Opportunity Loss Cost PT.

JWL

PT. SWMS

PT. BWP

CV.

WS Total

Januari 2.530 17.200 7.318 5.817 3.941 1.689 18.765 965 Februari 965 24.850 6.720 4.753 3.606 1.311 16.390 9.425

Maret 9.425 23.330 12.704 9.034 4.799 1.694 28.230 4.525 April 4.525 27.590 11.806 7.028 6.184 3.092 28.110 4.005 Mei 4.005 31.120 12.294 8.577 6.004 1.715 28.590 6.535 Juni 6.535 31.970 10.388 4.028 4.240 2.544 21.200 17.305

Juli 17.305 19.090 8.484 5.656 3.636 2.424 20.200 16.195 Agustus 16.195 7.080 9.280 7.888 3.712 2.320 23.200 75

September 75 25.020 14.204 7.520 3.899 2.228 27.850 -2.755 (Rp28.927.500) Oktober - 22.180 9.232 6.012 3.221 3.006 21.470 -2.045 (Rp21.472.500) November - 24.110 8.914 5.014 2.600 2.043 18.570 3.495

Loss Opportunity Cost

Produk Irawan 682 Tahun 2015

Bulan Stok (Kg)

Produksi (Kg)

Permintaan (Kg)

Selisih (Kg)

Opportunity Loss Cost PT.

JWL

PT. SWMS

PT. BWP

CV.

WS Total

Januari 970 79.600 21.692 10.846 10.846 5.916 49.300 31.270 Februari 31.270 64.980 22.648 14.304 14.900 7.748 59.600 36.650 Maret 36.650 71.980 50.243 32.070 17.104 7.483 106.900 1.730

April 1.730 158.400 46.152 35.896 29.486 16.666 128.200 31.930 Mei 31.930 82.350 47.779 20.173 22.297 15.926 106.175 8.105 Juni 8.105 125.250 63.323 31.662 20.702 6.089 121.775 11.580

Juli 11.580 107.330 46.097 15.656 15.656 9.567 86.975 31.935 Agustus 31.935 101.700 53.632 31.181 24.945 14.967 124.725 8.910 September 8.910 124.430 49.193 26.939 28.110 12.884 117.125 16.215

Oktober 16.215 66.680 41.368 14.352 16.041 12.664 84.425 -1.530 Rp (14.535.000) November - 95.900 30.879 26.590 20.586 7.720 85.775 10.125

Desember 10.125 119.830 60.612 30.306 25.255 10.102 126.275 3.680

Loss Opportunity Cost

Produk Irawan 683 Tahun 2015

Bulan Stok (Kg)

Produksi (Kg)

Permintaan (Kg)

Selisih (Kg)

Opportunity Loss Cost PT.

JWL

PT. SWMS

PT. BWP

CV.

WS Total

Januari 2.120 291.100 101.850 55.775 48.500 36.375 242.500 50.720

Februari 50.720 191.000 110.329 46.583 56.390 31.873 245.175 -3.455 Rp (31.095.000) Maret - 256.580 119.021 51.009 43.722 29.148 242.900 13.680

April 13.680 338.030 143.705 108.655 66.595 31.545 350.500 1.210 Mei 1.210 275.430 115.259 74.095 57.629 27.443 274.425 2.215 Juni 2.215 288.080 124.025 73.288 53.556 31.006 281.875 8.420 Juli 8.420 351.430 115.372 85.789 65.082 29.583 295.825 64.025 Agustus 64.025 238.530 142.395 56.958 49.191 10.356 258.900 43.655 September 43.655 345.080 191.647 52.868 66.085 19.826 330.425 58.310 Oktober 58.310 210.280 122.280 77.089 26.583 39.874 265.825 2.765 November 2.765 240.700 105.624 55.013 30.807 28.607 220.050 23.415

Loss Opportunity Cost

Produk Irawan 683-SP Tahun 2015

Bulan Stok (Kg)

Produksi (Kg)

Permintaan (Kg)

Selisih (Kg)

Opportunity Loss Cost PT.

JWL

PT. SWMS

PT. BWP

CV.

WS Total

Januari 45.500 273.450 114.774 93.060 68.244 34.122 310.200 8.750 Februari 8.750 213.200 68.013 76.257 43.281 18.549 206.100 15.850

Maret 15.850 204.200 65.861 48.974 33.775 20.265 168.875 51.175

April 51.175 272.100 114.028 117.381 77.136 26.830 335.375 -12.100 Rp (121.000.000) Mei - 310.400 114.582 88.140 67.574 23.504 293.800 16.600

Juni 16.600 398.600 126.242 110.940 95.638 49.732 382.550 32.650

Juli 32.650 259.080 92.117 109.946 68.345 26.744 297.150 -5.420 Rp (54.200.000) Agustus - 265.400 78.888 66.432 39.444 22.836 207.600 57.800

September 57.800 253.580 101.747 101.747 77.081 27.749 308.325 3.055 Oktober 3.055 257.600 104.519 61.182 61.182 28.042 254.925 5.730 November 5.730 229.030 77.634 49.231 37.870 24.616 189.350 45.410 Desember 45.410 254.930 88.086 57.885 83.053 22.651 251.675 48.665

Loss Opportunity Cost

Produk Irawan 684-S Tahun 2015

Bulan Stok (Kg)

Produksi (Kg)

Permintaan (Kg)

Selisih (Kg)

Opportunity Loss Cost PT.

JWL

PT. SWMS

PT. BWP

CV.

WS Total

Januari 9.800 181.150 80.786 39.454 39.454 28.181 187.875 3.075 Februari 3.075 172.530 58.149 37.382 38.766 4.154 138.450 37.155

Maret 37.155 299.600 124.014 73.281 50.733 33.822 281.850 54.905 April 54.905 243.480 76.981 33.181 15.927 6.636 132.725 165.660

Mei 165.660 276.580 96.601 32.200 28.811 11.863 169.475 272.765 Juni 272.765 204.450 137.403 77.775 38.888 5.185 259.250 217.965 Juli 217.965 243.100 113.036 37.679 35.585 23.026 209.325 251.740 Agustus 251.740 236.550 142.224 68.149 56.297 29.630 296.300 191.990 September 191.990 331.430 111.110 66.666 63.888 36.111 277.775 245.645 Oktober 245.645 291.750 115.477 52.078 38.492 20.378 226.425 310.970 November 310.970 259.480 145.007 91.956 67.198 49.515 353.675 216.775 Desember 216.775 141.600 68.058 45.900 26.907 17.410 158.275 200.100

PERAMALAN PRODUK IRAWAN 682 – PT. JWL

Irawan 682

Bulan

Demand

Januari

21.692

Februari

22.648

Maret

50.243

April

46.152

Mei

47.779

Juni

63.323

Juli

46.097

Agustus

53.632

September

49.193

Oktober

41.368

November

30.879

Desember

60.612

Total

533.617

Metode Peramalan Terpilih:

•

Metode Kuadratis

•

Metode Siklis

1.

Metode Kuadratis

KUADRATIS

t y t² t³ t⁴ ty t²y t' y't

1 21.692 1 1 1 21.692 21.692 13 24.557

2 22.648 4 8 16 45.296 90.592 14 32.232

3 50.243 9 27 81 150.729 452.187 15 38.690

4 46.152 16 64 256 184.608 738.432 16 43.932

5 47.779 25 125 625 238.894 1.194.469 17 47.957

�=�� �2_�2_{− � � �}4

�= (650)2_{−(12 × 60.710) =−306.020}

�=� � � � − � � ��

�= (78 × 533.617)−(12 × 3.696.316) =−2.733.666

�=� �2_{� � − � � �}2_�

�= (650 × 533.617)−(12 × 31.054.077) =−25.797.874

�=� � � �2_{− � � �}3

�= (78 × 650)−(12 × 6.084) =−22.308

�=�� ��

2

− � � �2

�= 782_{−(12 × 650) =−1.716}

�=�� − ��

�� − �2 = 9.498,714

�=� − ��

� =−608,1283

�=∑ � − � ∑ � − � ∑ �

2

� = 15.666,727

�′_{=�+��+��}2

�′_{= 15.666,727 + 9.498,714�+ (−608,1283)�}2

�′_{= 15.666,727 + 9.498,714(1) + (−608,1283)(1)}2

=24.557,31≈24.557

����=∑��=1|���|

�

= 2,26

12

= 18,85%

2.

Metode Siklis

Jumlah periode adalah:

�

=

12

SIKLIS

(2πt/n) (2πt/n)Cos^2 Y*Sin(2πt/n) Y*Cos(2πt/n)

����

=

∑��=1_�|���|

=

3,28 12

=

27,29%

Metode Terpilih: Kuadratis

Verifikasi Peramalan

y y't e=y-y't |MR| UCL LCL

21.692 24.557 -2.865 - 54.694,06 -54.694,06 22.648 32.232 -9.584 6.718,33 54.694,06 -54.694,06 50.243 38.690 11.553 21.136,93 54.694,06 -54.694,06 46.152 43.932 2.220 9.332,82 54.694,06 -54.694,06 47.779 47.957 -178 2.398,81 54.694,06 -54.694,06 63.323 50.766 12.557 12.734,95 54.694,06 -54.694,06 46.097 52.359 -6.263 18.819,30 54.694,06 -54.694,06 53.632 52.736 896 7.158,21 54.694,06 -54.694,06 49.193 51.897 -2.704 3.599,78 54.694,06 -54.694,06 41.368 49.841 -8.473 5.768,53 54.694,06 -54.694,06 30.879 46.569 -15.690 7.217,27 54.694,06 -54.694,06 60.612 42.081 18.531 34.221,24 54.694,06 -54.694,06

129.106,15

-40.000 -20.000 0 20.000 40.000

P

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L

Peramalan Irawan 682 tahun

2016

Irawan 682

UCL

PERAMALAN PRODUK IRAWAN 683 – PT. JWL

Irawan 682

Bulan

Demand

Januari

101.850

Februari

110.329

Maret

119.021

April

143.705

Mei

115.259

Juni

124.025

Juli

115.372

Agustus

142.395

September

191.647

Oktober

122.280

November

105.624

Desember

145.989

Total

1.537.494

Metode Peramalan Terpilih:

•

Metode Eksponensial

•

Metode Kuadratis

1.

Metode Eksponensial

EKSPONENSIAL

t y lny t.lny _t² y'

�=� ∑ �.��� − ∑ � ∑ ��� � ∑ �2_{−(∑ �)}2

�=(12 × 919,03)−(78 × 140,95)

(12 × 650)−782 =−0,0200135

ln� =∑ ��� − � ∑ �

� = 11,614 �= 110.713,2

�′ _=����

�′ _{= 110.713,2�}−0,0200135�

�′ _{= 110.713,2�}−0,0200135 (1)_{= 112.964,95≈112.965}

����=∑��=1|���|

�

= 1,357

12

= 11,24%

2.

Metode Kuadratis

KUADRATIS

t y t² t³ t⁴ ty t²y t' y't

1 101.850 1 1 1 101.850 101.850 13 102.712

2 110.329 4 8 16 220.658 441.315 14 111.130

3 119.021 9 27 81 357.063 1.071.189 15 118.408

4 143.705 16 64 256 574.820 2.299.280 16 124.547

5 115.259 25 125 625 576.293 2.881.463 17 129.548

6 124.025 36 216 1.296 744.150 4.464.900 18 133.409 7 115.372 49 343 2.401 807.602 5.653.216 19 136.130 8 142.395 64 512 4.096 1.139.160 9.113.280 20 137.713 9 191.647 81 729 6.561 1.724.819 15.523.367 21 138.157 10 122.280 100 1.000 10.000 1.222.795 12.227.950 22 137.461 11 105.624 121 1.331 14.641 1.161.864 12.780.504 23 135.626 12 145.989 144 1.728 20.736 1.751.862 21.022.344 24 132.653 78 1.537.494 650 6.084 60.710 10.382.935 87.580.657 222 1.537.494

�=�� �2_�2_{− � � �}4

�= (650)2_{−(12 × 60.710) =−306.020}

�=� � � � − � � ��

�= (78 × 1.537.494)−(12 × 10.382.935) =−4.670.724

�=� �2_{� � − � � �}2_�

�=� � � �2− � � �3

�= (78 × 650)−(12 × 6.084) =−22.308

�=�� ��

2

− � � �2

�= 782_{−(12 × 650) =−1.716}

�=�� −��

�� −�2= 10126,336

�=�−��

� = -569,574

�=∑ �−� ∑ �−� ∑ �

2

� = 93155,227

�′_{=�+��+��}2

�′_{= 93155,227 + 9.498,714�+ (−608,1283)�}2

�′_{= 93155,227 + 9.498,714(1) + (−608,1283)(1)}2

=

102.711,99

≈

102.712

����=∑��=1|���|

�

= 1,35

12

= 11,21%

Metode Terpilih: Kuadratis

Verifikasi Peramalan

y y't e=y-y't |MR| UCL LCL

y y't e=y-y't |MR| UCL LCL

122.280 137.461 -15.182 68.671,42 65.490,63 -65.490,63 105.624 135.626 -30.002 14.820,77 65.490,63 -65.490,63 145.989 132.653 13.336 43.338,38 65.490,63 -65.490,63

270.825,91

-80.000 -60.000 -40.000 -20.000 0 20.000 40.000 60.000 80.000

P

T

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WL

Peramalan Irawan 683 tahun 2016

Irawan 683

UCL

PERAMALAN PRODUK IRAWAN 683-SP – PT. JWL

Irawan 682

Bulan

Demand

Januari

114.774

Februari

68.013

Maret

65.861

April

114.028

Mei

114.582

Juni

126.242

Juli

92.117

Agustus

78.888

September

101.747

Oktober

104.519

November

77.634

Desember

88.086

Total

1.146.490

Metode Peramalan Terpilih:

•

Metode Kuadratis

•

Metode Siklis

1.

Metode Kuadratis

KUADRATIS

t y t² t³ t⁴ ty t²y t' y't

1 114.774 1 1 1 114.774 114.774 13 89.274 2 68.013 4 8 16 136.026 272.052 14 93.664 3 65.861 9 27 81 197.584 592.751 15 97.079 4 114.028 16 64 256 456.110 1.824.440 16 99.519 5 114.582 25 125 625 572.910 2.864.550 17 100.984 6 126.242 36 216 1.296 757.449 4.544.694 18 101.473 7 92.117 49 343 2.401 644.816 4.513.709 19 100.987 8 78.888 64 512 4.096 631.104 5.048.832 20 99.526 9 101.747 81 729 6.561 915.725 8.241.527 21 97.089 10 104.519 100 1.000 10.000 1.045.193 10.451.925 22 93.677 11 77.634 121 1.331 14.641 853.969 9.393.654 23 89.290 12 88.086 144 1.728 20.736 1.057.035 12.684.420 24 83.928

�=�� �2_�2_{− � � �}4

�= (650)2_{−(12 × 60.710) =−306.020}

�=� � � � − � � ��

�= (78 ×1.146.490)−(12 ×7.382.694) = 833.898

�=� �2_{� � − � � �}2_�

�= (650 ×1.146.490)−(12 ×60.547.328) = 18.650.570

�=� � � �2_{− � � �}3

�= (78 × 650)−(12 × 6.084) =−22.308

�=�� ��

2

− � � �2

�= 782_{−(12 × 650) =−1.716}

�=�� − ��

�� − �2 = 5.853,246

�=� − ��

� =−487,630

�=∑ � − � ∑ � − � ∑ �

2

� = 83.908,066

�′_{=�+��+��}2

�′_{= 83.908,066 + 5.853,246 + (−487,630)�}2

�′_{= 83.908,066 + 5.853,246(1) + (−487,630)(1)}2

=89.273,68≈89.274

����=∑��=1|���|

�

= 2,22

12

= 18,50%

2.

Metode Siklis

Jumlah periode adalah:

�

=

12

SIKLIS

(2πt/n) (2πt/n)Cos^2 Y*Sin(2πt/n) Y*Cos(2πt/n)

����

=

∑��=1_�|���|

=

1,96 12

=

16,32%

Metode Terpilih: Siklis

Verifikasi Peramalan

y y't e=y-y't |MR| UCL LCL

114.774 93.716 21.058 - 49.378,57 -49.378,57 68.013 83.124 -15.111 36.169,60 49.378,57 -49.378,57 65.861 84.949 -19.088 3.976,98 49.378,57 -49.378,57 114.028 97.366 16.661 35.749,63 49.378,57 -49.378,57 114.582 107.957 6.625 10.036,90 49.378,57 -49.378,57 126.242 106.132 20.109 13.484,73 49.378,57 -49.378,57 92.117 93.716 -1.599 21.708,38 49.378,57 -49.378,57 78.888 83.124 -4.236 2.637,10 49.378,57 -49.378,57 101.747 84.949 16.798 21.034,02 49.378,57 -49.378,57 104.519 97.366 7.153 9.644,62 49.378,57 -49.378,57 77.634 107.957 -30.324 37.477,15 49.378,57 -49.378,57 88.086 106.132 -18.046 12.277,98 49.378,57 -49.378,57

204.197,08

-100.000 -50.000 0 50.000 100.000

P

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L

Peramalan Irawan 683-SP tahun

2016

Irawan 683-SP

UCL

Irawan 682

Bulan

Demand

Januari

80.786

Februari

58.149

Maret

124.014

April

76.981

Mei

96.601

Juni

137.403

Juli

113.036

Agustus

142.224

September

111.110

Oktober

115.477

November

145.007

Desember

68.058

Total

1.268.844

Metode Peramalan Terpilih:

•

Metode Eksponensial

•

Metode Siklis

1.

Metode Eksponensial

EKSPONENSIAL

t y lny t.lny _t² y'

1 80.786 11,2996 11,2996 1 86.060

2 58.149 10,9708 21,9415 4 88.699

3 124.014 11,7281 35,1844 9 91.419

4 76.981 11,2513 45,0052 16 94.223

5 96.601 11,4783 57,3917 25 97.112

6 137.403 11,8307 70,9840 36 100.090

7 113.036 11,6355 81,4482 49 103.160

8 142.224 11,8652 94,9213 64 106.323

9 111.110 11,6183 104,5645 81 109.584

10 115.477 11,6568 116,5682 100 112.944

11 145.007 11,8845 130,7299 121 116.408

12 68.058 11,1281 133,5374 144 119.978

78 1.268.844 138,3472 903,5760 650 1.226.000

�=(12 × 903,57)−(78 × 138,34)

(12 × 650)−782 =−0,030206

ln�=∑ ��� − � ∑ �

� = 11,33259 �= 83.499,2

�′ _=����

�′ _{= 83.499,2�}−0,0302065�

�′ _{= 83.499,2�}−0,0302065 (1)_{= 86.059,85≈86.060}

����=∑��=1|���|

�

= 2,69

12

= 22,42%

2.

Metode Siklis

Jumlah periode adalah:

�

=

12

3

= 4

SIKLIS

t Y Sin(2πt/n) Cos(2πt/n)

Sin (2πt/n)*Cos

(2πt/n)

Sin^2

(2πt/n) (2πt/n)Cos^2 Y*Sin(2πt/n) Y*Cos(2πt/n)

1 80786 1,000 0,000 0,000 1,000 0,000 80786,25 0

2 58149 0,000 -1,000 0,000 0,000 1,000 0,00 -58149

3 124014 -1,000 0,000 0,000 1,000 0,000 -124014,00 0

4 76981 0,000 1,000 0,000 0,000 1,000 0,00 76980,5

5 96601 1,000 0,000 0,000 1,000 0,000 96600,75 0

6 137403 0,000 -1,000 0,000 0,000 1,000 0,00 -137402,5

7 113036 -1,000 0,000 0,000 1,000 0,000 -113035,50 0

8 142224 0,000 1,000 0,000 0,000 1,000 0,00 142224

9 111110 1,000 0,000 0,000 1,000 0,000 111110,00 0

10 115477 0,000 -1,000 0,000 0,000 1,000 0,00 -115476,75

11 145007 -1,000 0,000 0,000 1,000 0,000 -145006,75 0

12 68058 0,000 1,000 0,000 0,000 1,000 0,00 68058,25

∑ y = t a + b ∑ sin�2πt

Verifikasi Peramalan

y y't e=y-y't |MR| UCL LCL

80.786 86.060 -5.274 - 93.883,39 -93.883,39 58.149 88.699 -30.550 25.276,42 93.883,39 -93.883,39 124.014 91.419 32.595 63.144,89 93.883,39 -93.883,39 76.981 94.223 -17.242 49.837,02 93.883,39 -93.883,39 96.601 97.112 -511 16.730,75 93.883,39 -93.883,39 137.403 100.090 37.312 37.823,64 93.883,39 -93.883,39 113.036 103.160 9.876 27.436,44 93.883,39 -93.883,39 142.224 106.323 35.901 26.024,93 93.883,39 -93.883,39 111.110 109.584 1.526 34.374,58 93.883,39 -93.883,39 115.477 112.944 2.532 1.006,18 93.883,39 -93.883,39 145.007 116.408 28.599 26.066,37 93.883,39 -93.883,39 68.058 119.978 -51.920 80.518,35 93.883,39 -93.883,39

388.239,58

Peramalan Irawan 684-S tahun 2016

Irawan 684-S

LCL

PERAMALAN PRODUK IRAWAN 9001 – PT. SWMS

Irawan 9001

Bulan Demand

Januari 5.817

Februari 4.753

Maret 9.034

April 7.028

Mei 8.577

Juni 4.028

Juli 5.656

Agustus 7.888

September 7.520

Oktober 6.012

November 5.014

Desember 4.760

Total 76085

Metode Peramalan Terpilih:

•

Metode Kuadratis

•

Metode Siklis

1.

Metode Kuadratis

KUADRATIS

t y t² t³ t⁴ ty t²y t' y't

1 5.817 1 1 1 5.817 5.817 13 5.867

2 4.753 4 8 16 9.506 19.012 14 6.324

3 9.034 9 27 81 27.101 81.302 15 6.670

4 7.028 16 64 256 28.110 112.440 16 6.904 5 8.577 25 125 625 42.885 214.425 17 7.027 6 4.028 36 216 1.296 24.168 145.008 18 7.039 7 5.656 49 343 2.401 39.592 277.144 19 6.940 8 7.888 64 512 4.096 63.104 504.832 20 6.729 9 7.520 81 729 6.561 67.676 609.080 21 6.407 10 6.012 100 1.000 10.000 60.116 601.160 22 5.974 11 5.014 121 1.331 14.641 55.153 606.682 23 5.430 12 4.760 144 1.728 20.736 57.120 685.440 24 4.774

�=�� �2_�2_{− � � �}4

�= (650)2_{−(12 × 60.710) =−306.020}

�=� � � � − � � ��

�= (78 × 76.085)−(12 × 480.348) = 170.487

�=� �2_{� � − � � �}2_�

�= (650 × 76.085)−(12 × 3.862.342) = 3.107.369

�=� � � �2_{− � � �}3

�= (78 × 650)−(12 × 6.084) =−22.308

�=�� ��

2

− � � �2

�= 782_{−(12 × 650) =−1.716}

�=�� − ��

�� − �2 = 623,8973

�=� − ��

� =−55,6345

�=∑ � − � ∑ � − � ∑ �

2

� = 8.298,648

�′_{=�+��+��}2

�′_{= 8.298,648 + 623,8973�+ (−55,6345)�}2

�′_{= 8.298,648 + 623,8973(1) + (−55,6345)(1)}2

=5.866,91≈5.867

����=∑��=1|���|

�

= 2,16

12

= 18,00%

2.

Metode Siklis

Jumlah periode adalah:

�

=

12

SIKLIS

(2πt/n) (2πt/n)Cos^2 Y*Sin(2πt/n) Y*Cos(2πt/n)

����

=

∑��=1_�|���|

=

1,91 12

=

15,93%

Metode Terpilih: Siklis

Verifikasi Peramalan

Permintaan Irawan 9001 tahun 2016

Irawan 9001

LCL

PERAMALAN PRODUK IRAWAN 682 – PT. SWMS

Irawan 682

Bulan

Demand

Januari

10.846

Februari

14.304

Maret

32.070

April

35.896

Mei

20.173

Juni

31.662

Juli

15.656

Agustus

31.181

September

26.939

Oktober

14.352

November

26.590

Desember

30.306

Total

289.975

Metode Peramalan Terpilih:

•

Metode Eksponensial

•

Metode Siklis

1.

Metode Eksponensial

EKSPONENSIAL

t y lny t.lny t² y'

1 10.846 9,2916 9,2916 1 18.460

2 14.304 9,5683 19,1366 4 19.145

3 32.070 10,3757 31,1270 9 19.856

4 35.896 10,4884 41,9535 16 20.593

5 20.173 9,9121 49,5606 25 21.357

6 31.662 10,3629 62,1771 36 22.149

7 15.656 9,6586 67,6100 49 22.971

8 31.181 10,3476 82,7806 64 23.824

9 26.939 10,2013 91,8119 81 24.708

10 14.352 9,5717 95,7166 100 25.625

11 26.590 10,1883 112,0713 121 26.576

12 30.306 10,3191 123,8292 144 27.562

�=� ∑ �.��� − ∑ � ∑ ���

3.

Metode Siklis

Jumlah periode adalah:

�

=

12

(2πt/n) (2πt/n)Cos^2 Y*Sin(2πt/n) Y*Cos(2πt/n)

∑ y = t a + b ∑ sin�2πt

Verifikasi Peramalan

y y't e=y-y't |MR| UCL LCL

10.846 18.460 -7.614 - 27.627,24 -27.627,24 14.304 19.145 -4.841 2.772,91 27.627,24 -27.627,24 32.070 19.856 12.214 17.055,49 27.627,24 -27.627,24 35.896 20.593 15.303 3.089,12 27.627,24 -27.627,24 20.173 21.357 -1.184 16.486,98 27.627,24 -27.627,24 31.662 22.149 9.512 10.695,66 27.627,24 -27.627,24 15.656 22.971 -7.316 16.828,00 27.627,24 -27.627,24 31.181 23.824 7.357 14.673,24 27.627,24 -27.627,24 26.939 24.708 2.231 5.126,65 27.627,24 -27.627,24 14.352 25.625 -11.273 13.503,46 27.627,24 -27.627,24 26.590 26.576 14 11.287,01 27.627,24 -27.627,24 30.306 27.562 2.744 2.729,46 27.627,24 -27.627,24

114.247,98

-40.000 -30.000 -20.000 -10.000 0 10.000 20.000 30.000 40.000

P

T

. SW

M

S

Permintaan 682 tahun 2016

Irawan 682

LCL

PERAMALAN PRODUK IRAWAN 683 – PT. SWMS

Irawan 683

Bulan

Demand

Januari

_55.775

Februari

_46.583

Maret

51.009

April

_108.655

Mei

74.095

Juni

73.288

Juli

_85.789

Agustus

56.958

September

_52.868

Oktober

_77.089

November

_55.013

Desember

46.827

Total

783.948

Metode Peramalan Terpilih:

•

Metode Eksponensial

•

Metode Kuadratis

1.

Metode Eksponensial

EKSPONENSIAL

t y lny t.lny t² y' 1 55.775 10,929 10,929 1 65.321 2 46.583 10,749 21,498 4 64.918 3 51.009 10,840 32,519 9 64.518 4 108.655 11,596 46,384 16 64.120 5 74.095 11,213 56,065 25 63.725 6 73.288 11,202 67,213 36 63.331 7 85.789 11,360 79,518 49 62.941 8 56.958 10,950 87,601 64 62.553 9 52.868 10,876 97,880 81 62.167 10 77.089 11,253 112,527 100 61.783 11 55.013 10,915 120,068 121 61.402 12 46.827 10,754 129,050 144 61.024

�=� ∑ �.��� − ∑ � ∑ ��� � ∑ �2_{−(∑ �)}2

�=(12 × 861,253)−(78 × 132,637)

(12 × 650)−782 =−0,006187

ln�=∑ ��� − � ∑ �

� = 11,0932 �= 65.726,669

�′ _=����

�′ _{= 65.726,669�}−0,006187�

�′ _{= 65.726,669�}−0,006187 (1)_{= 65.321,27≈65.321}

����=∑��=1|���|

�

= 2,67

12

= 22,28%

2.

Metode Kuadratis

KUADRATIS

t y t² t³ t⁴ ty t²y t' y't

1 55.775 1 1 1 55.775 55.775 13 50.951 2 46.583 4 8 16 93.167 186.333 14 59.898 3 51.009 9 27 81 153.027 459.081 15 66.944 4 108.655 16 64 256 434.620 1.738.480 16 72.091 5 74.095 25 125 625 370.474 1.852.369 17 75.338 6 73.288 36 216 1.296 439.725 2.638.350 18 76.686 7 85.789 49 343 2.401 600.525 4.203.673 19 76.134 8 56.958 64 512 4.096 455.664 3.645.312 20 73.683 9 52.868 81 729 6.561 475.812 4.282.308 21 69.331 10 77.089 100 1.000 10.000 770.893 7.708.925 22 63.081 11 55.013 121 1.331 14.641 605.138 6.656.513 23 54.930 12 46.827 144 1.728 20.736 561.918 6.743.016 24 44.880

78 783.948 650 6.084 60.710 5.016.736 40.170.135 222 783.948

�=�� �2_�2_{− � � �}4

�=� � � � − � � ��

�= (78 × 783.948)−(12 × 5.016.736) = 947.112

�=� �2� � − � � �2�

�= (650 × 783.948)−(12 × 40.170.135) = 27.524.586

�=� � � �2_{− � � �}3

�= (78 × 650)−(12 × 6.084) =−22.308

�=�� ��

2

− � � �2

�= 782−(12 × 650) =−1.716

�=�� −��

�� −�2= 11.795,578

�=�−��

� = -949,808

�=∑ �−� ∑ �−� ∑ �2

� = 40.105,693

�′_{=�+��+��}2

�′_{= 40.105,693 + 11.795,578�+ (−949,808)�}2

�′_{= 40.105,693 + 11.795,578(1) + (−949,808)(1)}2

=50.951,46_≈50.951

����=∑��=1|���|

�

= 2,03

12

= 16,89%

Verifikasi Peramalan

y y't e=y-y't |MR| UCL LCL

55.775 50.951 4.824 - 48.164,67 -48.164,67 46.583 59.898 -13.314 18.137,90 48.164,67 -48.164,67 51.009 66.944 -15.935 2.620,79 48.164,67 -48.164,67 108.655 72.091 36.564 52.499,08 48.164,67 -48.164,67 74.095 75.338 -1.244 37.807,55 48.164,67 -48.164,67 73.288 76.686 -3.399 2.154,94 48.164,67 -48.164,67 85.789 76.134 9.655 13.053,68 48.164,67 -48.164,67 56.958 73.683 -16.725 26.379,70 48.164,67 -48.164,67 52.868 69.331 -16.463 261,16 48.164,67 -48.164,67 77.089 63.081 14.009 30.472,03 48.164,67 -48.164,67 55.013 54.930 82 13.926,35 48.164,67 -48.164,67 46.827 44.880 1.946 1.864,01 48.164,67 -48.164,67

199.177,20

-60.000 -40.000 -20.000 0 20.000 40.000 60.000

P

T

. SW

M

S

Permintaan 683 tahun 2016

Irawan 683

LCL

PERAMALAN PRODUK IRAWAN 683-SP – PT. SWMS

Irawan 683-SP

Bulan

Demand

Januari

93.060

Februari

76.257

Maret

48.974

April

117.381

Mei

88.140

Juni

110.940

Juli

109.946

Agustus

66.432

September

101.747

Oktober

61.182

November

49.231

Desember

57.885

Total

981.175

Metode Peramalan Terpilih:

•

Metode Eksponensial

•

Metode Kuadratis

1.

Metode Eksponensial

EKSPONENSIAL

t y lny t.lny t² y' 1 93.060 11,441 11,441 1 93.198 2 76.257 11,242 22,484 4 90.256 3 48.974 10,799 32,397 9 87.406 4 117.381 11,673 46,693 16 84.647 5 88.140 11,387 56,933 25 81.975 6 110.940 11,617 69,700 36 79.387 7 109.946 11,608 81,254 49 76.880 8 66.432 11,104 88,831 64 74.453 9 101.747 11,530 103,772 81 72.103 10 61.182 11,022 110,216 100 69.826 11 49.231 10,804 118,847 121 67.622 12 57.885 10,966 131,595 144 65.487

�=� ∑ �.��� − ∑ � ∑ ��� � ∑ �2_{−(∑ �)}2

�=(12 × 874,164)−(78 × 135,193)

(12 × 650)−782 =−0,032079

ln�=∑ ��� − � ∑ �

� = 11,474 �= 96.236,405

�′ _=����

�′ _{= 96.236,405�}−0,032079�

�′ _{= 96.236,405�}−0,032079 (1)_{= 93.198,16≈93.198}

����=∑��=1|���|

�

= 2,96

12

= 24,68%

2.

Metode Kuadratis

KUADRATIS

t y t² t³ t⁴ ty t²y t' y't

1 93.060 1 1 1 93.060 93.060 13 74.916 2 76.257 4 8 16 152.514 305.028 14 83.470 3 48.974 9 27 81 146.921 440.764 15 89.831 4 117.381 16 64 256 469.525 1.878.100 16 93.999 5 88.140 25 125 625 440.700 2.203.500 17 95.975 6 110.940 36 216 1.296 665.637 3.993.822 18 95.759 7 109.946 49 343 2.401 769.619 5.387.330 19 93.350 8 66.432 64 512 4.096 531.456 4.251.648 20 88.748 9 101.747 81 729 6.561 915.725 8.241.527 21 81.954 10 61.182 100 1.000 10.000 611.820 6.118.200 22 72.967 11 49.231 121 1.331 14.641 541.541 5.956.951 23 61.788 12 57.885 144 1.728 20.736 694.623 8.335.476 24 48.417 78 981.175 650 6.084 60.710 6.033.141 47.205.406 25 981.175

�=�� �2_�2_{− � � �}4

�=� � � � − � � ��

�= (78 × 981.175)−(12 × 6.033.141) = 4.133.919

�=� �2� � − � � �2�

�= (650 × 981.175)−(12 × 47.205.406) = 71.298.559

�=� � � �2_{− � � �}3

�= (78 × 650)−(12 × 6.084) =−22.308

�=�� ��

2

− � � �2

�= 782−(12 × 650) =−1.716

�=�� −��

�� −�2= 11.795,578

�=�−��

� = -1.096,254

�=∑ �−� ∑ �−� ∑ �2

� = 64.170,272

�′_{=�+��+��}2

�′_{= 64.170,272 + 11.795,578�+ (−1.096,254)�}2

�′_{= 64.170,272 + 11.795,578(1) + (−1.096,254)(1)}2

= 74.916,28≈74.916

����=∑��=1|���|

�

= 2,84

12

= 23,68%

Verifikasi Peramalan

y y't e=y-y't |MR| UCL LCL

93.060 74.916 18.144 - 76.000,01 -76.000,01 76.257 83.470 -7.213 25.356,50 76.000,01 -76.000,01 48.974 89.831 -40.857 33.644,24 76.000,01 -76.000,01 117.381 93.999 23.382 64.239,02 76.000,01 -76.000,01 88.140 95.975 -7.835 31.217,22 76.000,01 -76.000,01 110.940 95.759 15.181 23.016,03 76.000,01 -76.000,01 109.946 93.350 16.596 1.415,04 76.000,01 -76.000,01 66.432 88.748 -22.316 38.911,95 76.000,01 -76.000,01 101.747 81.954 19.793 42.109,31 76.000,01 -76.000,01 61.182 72.967 -11.785 31.578,68 76.000,01 -76.000,01 49.231 61.788 -12.557 771,92 76.000,01 -76.000,01 57.885 48.417 9.468 22.025,84 76.000,01 -76.000,01

314.285,76

-100.000 -80.000 -60.000 -40.000 -20.000 0 20.000 40.000 60.000 80.000 100.000

P

T

. SW

M

S

Permintaan 683-SP tahun 2016

Irawan 683-SP

LCL

PERAMALAN PRODUK IRAWAN 684-S – PT. SWMS

Irawan 684-S

Bulan

Demand

Januari

39.454

Februari

37.382

Maret

73.281

April

33.181

Mei

32.200

Juni

77.775

Juli

37.679

Agustus

68.149

September

66.666

Oktober

52.078

November

91.956

Desember

45.900

Total

655.699

Metode Peramalan Terpilih:

•

Metode Eksponensial

•

Metode Kuadratis

1.

Metode Eksponensial

EKSPONENSIAL

t y lny t.lny t² y' 1 39.454 10,583 10,583 1 40.483 2 37.382 10,529 21,058 4 42.275 3 73.281 11,202 33,606 9 44.147 4 33.181 10,410 41,639 16 46.101 5 32.200 10,380 51,899 25 48.141 6 77.775 11,262 67,569 36 50.272 7 37.679 10,537 73,758 49 52.498 8 68.149 11,129 89,036 64 54.822 9 66.666 11,107 99,967 81 57.248 10 52.078 10,860 108,605 100 59.783 11 91.956 11,429 125,720 121 62.429 12 45.900 10,734 128,811 144 65.192

�=� ∑ �.��� − ∑ � ∑ ��� � ∑ �2_{−(∑ �)}2

�=(12 × 874,164)−(78 × 135,193)

(12 × 650)−782 = 0,04331

ln�=∑ ��� − � ∑ �

� = 10,5653 �= 38.767,114

�′ _=����

�′ _{= 38.767,114�}0,04331�

�′ _{= 38.767,114�}0,04331 (1)_{= 40.483,17≈40.483}

����=∑��=1|���|

�

= 3,41

12

= 28,43%

2.

Metode Kuadratis

KUADRATIS

t y t² t³ t⁴ ty t²y t' y't

1 39.454 1 1 1 39.454 39.454 13 39.439

2 37.382 4 8 16 74.763 149.526 14 43.194

3 73.281 9 27 81 219.843 659.529 15 46.652

4 33.181 16 64 256 132.725 530.900 16 49.812

5 32.200 25 125 625 161.001 805.006 17 52.676

6 77.775 36 216 1.296 466.650 2.799.900 18 55.241

7 37.679 49 343 2.401 263.750 1.846.247 19 57.510

8 68.149 64 512 4.096 545.192 4.361.536 20 59.481

9 66.666 81 729 6.561 599.994 5.399.946 21 61.155

10 52.078 100 1.000 10.000 520.778 5.207.775 22 62.532

11 91.956 121 1.331 14.641 1.011.511 11.126.616 23 63.612

12 45.900 144 1.728 20.736 550.797 6.609.564 24 64.394

78 655.699 650 6.084 60.710 4.586.457 39.535.998 25 655.699

�=�� �2�

2

− � � �4

�=� � � � − � � ��

�= (78 × 655.699)−(12 × 4.586.457) =−3.892.937

�=� �2� � − � � �2�

�= (650 ×655.699)−(12 × 39.535.998) =−48.227.464

�=� � � �2_{− � � �}3

�= (78 × 650)−(12 × 6.084) =−22.308

�=�� ��

2

− � � �2

�= 782−(12 × 650) =−1.716

�=�� −��

�� −�2= 4.201,006

�=�−��

� = -148,645

�=∑ �−� ∑ �−� ∑ �2

� = 35.386,710

�′_{=�+��+��}2

�′_{= 35.386,710 + 4.201,006�+ (−148,645)�}2

�′_{= 35.386,710 + 4.201,006(1) + (−148,645)(1)}2

= 39.439,07≈39.439

����=∑��=1|���|

�

= 3,59

12

= 29,95%

Verifikasi Peramalan

y y't e=y-y't |MR| UCL LCL

39.454 40.483 -1.029 - 73.503,79 -73.503,79 37.382 42.275 -4.894 3.864,27 73.503,79 -73.503,79 73.281 44.147 29.134 34.028,15 73.503,79 -73.503,79 33.181 46.101 -12.919 42.053,94 73.503,79 -73.503,79 32.200 48.141 -15.941 3.021,69 73.503,79 -73.503,79 77.775 50.272 27.503 43.443,73 73.503,79 -73.503,79 37.679 52.498 -14.819 42.321,85 73.503,79 -73.503,79 68.149 54.822 13.327 28.146,64 73.503,79 -73.503,79 66.666 57.248 9.418 3.909,73 73.503,79 -73.503,79 52.078 59.783 -7.705 17.122,40 73.503,79 -73.503,79 91.956 62.429 29.527 37.231,42 73.503,79 -73.503,79 45.900 65.192 -19.293 48.819,22 73.503,79 -73.503,79

303.963,04

Permintaan 684-S tahun 2016

Irawan 684-S

LCL

PERAMALAN PRODUK IRAWAN 9001 – PT. BWP

Irawan 9001

Bulan Demand

Januari 3.941 Februari 3.606 Maret 4.799 April 6.184

Mei 6.004

Juni 4.240 Juli 3.636 Agustus 3.712

September 3.899 Oktober 3.221 November 2.600 Desember 4.522

Total 50.363

Metode Peramalan Terpilih:

•

Metode Eksponensial

•

Metode Siklis

2.

Metode Eksponensial

EKSPONENSIAL

t y lny t.lny _t² y'

1 3.941 8,279 8,279 1 4.772

2 3.606 8,190 16,381 4 4.638

3 4.799 8,476 25,429 9 4.509

4 6.184 8,730 34,919 16 4.382

5 6.004 8,700 43,501 25 4.259

6 4.240 8,352 50,114 36 4.140

7 3.636 8,199 57,390 49 4.024

8 3.712 8,219 65,755 64 3.911

9 3.899 8,268 74,416 81 3.802

10 3.221 8,077 80,773 100 3.695

11 2.600 7,863 86,495 121 3.592

12 4.522 8,417 101,001 144 3.491

�=� ∑ �.��� − ∑ � ∑ ���

4.

Metode Siklis

Jumlah periode adalah:

�

=

12

(2πt/n) (2πt/n)Cos^2 Y*Sin(2πt/n) Y*Cos(2πt/n)

50.363 = 12 a + b (0) + c (0)

Verifikasi Peramalan

Permintaan Irawan 9001 tahun 2016

Irawan 9001

UCL

PERAMALAN PRODUK IRAWAN 682 – PT. BWP

Irawan 682

Bulan

Demand

Januari

10.846

Februari

14.900

Maret

17.104

April

29.486

Mei

22.297

Juni

20.702

Juli

15.656

Agustus

24.945

September

28.110

Oktober

16.041

November

20.586

Desember

25.255

Total

245.927

Metode Peramalan Terpilih:

•

Metode Eksponensial

•

Metode Kuadratis

1.

Metode Eksponensial

EKSPONENSIAL

t y lny t.lny t² y' 1 10.846 9,292 9,292 1 15.779 2 14.900 9,609 19,218 4 16.431 3 17.104 9,747 29,241 9 17.109 4 29.486 10,292 41,167 16 17.816 5 22.297 10,012 50,061 25 18.552 6 20.702 9,938 59,628 36 19.318 7 15.656 9,659 67,610 49 20.116 8 24.945 10,124 80,995 64 20.947 9 28.110 10,244 92,195 81 21.812 10 16.041 9,683 96,829 100 22.713 11 20.586 9,932 109,256 121 23.651 12 25.255 10,137 121,641 144 24.628

�=� ∑ �.��� − ∑ � ∑ ��� � ∑ �2_{−(∑ �)}2

�=(12 × 777,133)−(78 × 118,668)

(12 × 650)−782 = 0,04047

ln�=∑ ��� − � ∑ �

� = 9,625 �= 15.153,002

�′ _=����

�′ _{= 15.153,002�}0,04047 �

�′ _{= 15.153,002�}0,04047 (1)_{= 15.778,90≈15.779}

����=∑��=1|���|

�

= 2,45

12

= 20,39%

2.

Metode Kuadratis

KUADRATIS

t y t² t³ t⁴ ty t²y t' y't

1 10.846 1 1 1 10.846 10.846 13 13.404

2 14.900 4 8 16 29.800 59.600 14 15.885

3 17.104 9 27 81 51.312 153.936 15 18.008

4 29.486 16 64 256 117.944 471.776 16 19.774

5 22.297 25 125 625 111.484 557.419 17 21.182

6 20.702 36 216 1.296 124.211 745.263 18 22.233

7 15.656 49 343 2.401 109.589 767.120 19 22.926

8 24.945 64 512 4.096 199.560 1.596.480 20 23.262

9 28.110 81 729 6.561 252.990 2.276.910 21 23.240

10 16.041 100 1.000 10.000 160.408 1.604.075 22 22.860

11 20.586 121 1.331 14.641 226.446 2.490.906 23 22.123

12 25.255 144 1.728 20.736 303.060 3.636.720 24 21.029

78 245.927 650 6.084 60.710 1.697.648 14.371.050 222 245.927

�=�� �2_�2_{− � � �}4

�=� � � � − � � ��

�= (78 × 245.927)−(12 × 1.697.648) =−1.189.493

�=� �2� � − � � �2�

�= (650 ×245.927)−(12 × 14.371.050) =−12.600.216

�=� � � �2_{− � � �}3

�= (78 × 650)−(12 × 6.084) =−22.308

�=�� ��

2

− � � �2

�= 782−(12 × 650) =−1.716

�=�� −��

�� −�2= 3.017,192

�=�−��

� = -178,770

�=∑ �−� ∑ �−� ∑ �2

� = 10.565,539

�′_{=�+��+��}2

�′_{= 10.565,539 + 3.017,192 �+ (−178,770)�}2

�′_{= 10.565,539 + 3.017,192 (1) + (−178,770)(1)}2

= 13.403,96≈13.404

����=∑��=1|���|

�

= 2,18

12

= 18,17%

Verifikasi Peramalan

y y't e=y-y't |MR| UCL LCL

10.846 13.404 -2.558 - 15.507,55 -15.507,55 14.900 15.885 -985 1.573,12 15.507,55 -15.507,55 17.104 18.008 -904 80,66 15.507,55 -15.507,55 29.486 19.774 9.712 10.616,20 15.507,55 -15.507,55 22.297 21.182 1.115 8.597,51 15.507,55 -15.507,55 20.702 22.233 -1.531 2.645,72 15.507,55 -15.507,55 15.656 22.926 -7.271 5.739,43 15.507,55 -15.507,55 24.945 23.262 1.683 8.953,86 15.507,55 -15.507,55 28.110 23.240 4.870 3.186,90 15.507,55 -15.507,55 16.041 22.860 -6.820 11.689,80 15.507,55 -15.507,55 20.586 22.123 -1.537 5.282,24 15.507,55 -15.507,55 25.255 21.029 4.226 5.763,53 15.507,55 -15.507,55

64.128,97

-20.000 -15.000 -10.000 -5.000 0 5.000 10.000 15.000 20.000

PT

. B

WP

Permintaan Irawan 682 tahun 2016

Irawan 682

UCL

PERAMALAN PRODUK IRAWAN 683 – PT. BWP

Irawan 683

Bulan

Demand

Januari

48.500

Februari

56.390

Maret

43.722

April

66.595

Mei

57.629

Juni

53.556

Juli

65.082

Agustus

49.191

September

66.085

Oktober

26.583

November

30.807

Desember

49.581

Total

613.721

Metode Peramalan Terpilih:

•

Metode Linier

•

Metode Kuadratis

1.

Metode Linier

LINIER

t y ty t² t' y't

1 48.500 48.500 1 13 57.964

2 56.390 112.781 4 14 56.724

3 43.722 131.166 9 15 55.484

4 66.595 266.380 16 16 54.244

5 57.629 288.146 25 17 53.004

6 53.556 321.338 36 18 51.763

7 65.082 455.571 49 19 50.523

8 49.191 393.528 64 20 49.283

9 66.085 594.765 81 21 48.043

10 26.583 265.825 100 22 46.803

11 30.807 338.877 121 23 45.563

12 49.581 594.972 144 24 44.323

�

=

� ∑ �� − ∑ � ∑ �

12

12 = 59.204,174

�′

=

�

+

��

2.

Metode Kuadratis

�=� � � �2− � � �3

= 49.443,09≈49.443

����=∑��=1|���|

�

= 2,42

12

= 20,14%

Metode Terpilih: Kuadratis

Verifikasi Peramalan

y y't e=y-y't |MR| UCL LCL

48.500 49.443 -943 - 41.132,90 -41.132,90 56.390 52.851 3.539 4.482,57 41.132,90 -41.132,90 43.722 55.329 -11.607 15.146,37 41.132,90 -41.132,90 66.595 56.877 9.718 21.324,44 41.132,90 -41.132,90 57.629 57.496 133 9.584,75 41.132,90 -41.132,90 53.556 57.186 -3.630 3.762,44 41.132,90 -41.132,90 65.082 55.946 9.136 12.765,37 41.132,90 -41.132,90 49.191 53.776 -4.585 13.720,82 41.132,90 -41.132,90 66.085 50.677 15.408 19.993,24 41.132,90 -41.132,90 26.583 46.648 -20.066 35.473,70 41.132,90 -41.132,90 30.807 41.690 -10.883 9.182,86 41.132,90 -41.132,90 49.581 35.802 13.779 24.661,92 41.132,90 -41.132,90

-50.000 -40.000 -30.000 -20.000 -10.000 0 10.000 20.000 30.000 40.000 50.000

PT

. B

WP

Permintaan Irawan 683 tahun 2016

Irawan 683

UCL

PERAMALAN PRODUK IRAWAN 683-SP – PT. BWP

Irawan 683-SP

Bulan

Demand

Januari

68.244

Februari

43.281

Maret

33.775

April

77.136

Mei

67.574

Juni

95.638

Juli

68.345

Agustus

39.444

September

77.081

Oktober

61.182

November

37.870

Desember

83.053

Total

752.622

Metode Peramalan Terpilih:

•

Metode Eksponensial

•

Metode Siklis

1.

Metode Eksponensial

EKSPONENSIAL

t y lny t.lny t² y'

1 68.244 11,131 11,131 1 56.036

2 43.281 10,675 21,351 4 56.659

3 33.775 10,427 31,282 9 57.289

4 77.136 11,253 45,013 16 57.926

5 67.574 11,121 55,605 25 58.570

6 95.638 11,468 68,810 36 59.221

7 68.345 11,132 77,926 49 59.880

8 39.444 10,583 84,661 64 60.545

9 77.081 11,253 101,274 81 61.219

10 61.182 11,022 110,216 100 61.899

11 37.870 10,542 115,961 121 62.588

12 83.053 11,327 135,927 144 63.284

�=� ∑ �.��� − ∑ � ∑ ���

2.

Metode Siklis

Jumlah periode adalah:

�

=

12

(2πt/n) (2πt/n)Cos^2 Y*Sin(2πt/n) Y*Cos(2πt/n)

1 68244 0,866 0,500 0,433 0,750 0,250 59099,30 34122

∑ y = t a + b ∑ sin�2πt

Verifikasi Peramalan

y y't e=y-y't |MR| UCL LCL

68.244 66.190 2.054 - 67.021,00 -67.021,00 43.281 53.135 -9.854 11.908,23 67.021,00 -67.021,00 33.775 49.664 -15.889 6.034,53 67.021,00 -67.021,00 77.136 59.247 17.889 33.777,95 67.021,00 -67.021,00 67.574 72.302 -4.728 22.617,02 67.021,00 -67.021,00 95.638 75.773 19.864 24.592,03 67.021,00 -67.021,00 68.345 66.190 2.155 17.709,70 67.021,00 -67.021,00 39.444 53.135 -13.691 15.845,73 67.021,00 -67.021,00 77.081 49.664 27.418 41.108,72 67.021,00 -67.021,00 61.182 59.247 1.935 25.482,55 67.021,00 -67.021,00 37.870 72.302 -34.432 36.366,77 67.021,00 -67.021,00 83.053 75.773 7.279 41.711,28 67.021,00 -67.021,00

277.154,51

Permintaan Irawan 683- SP tahun

2016

Irawan 683-SP

UCL

PERAMALAN PRODUK IRAWAN 684-S – PT. BWP

Irawan 684-S

Bulan

Demand

Januari

39.454

Februari

38.766

Maret

50.733

April

15.927

Mei

28.811

Juni

38.888

Juli

35.585

Agustus

56.297

September

63.888

Oktober

38.492

November

67.198

Desember

26.907

Total

500.946

Metode Peramalan Terpilih:

•

Metode Eksponensial

•

Metode Siklis

1.

Metode Eksponensial

EKSPONENSIAL

t y lny t.lny t² y'

1 39.454 10,583 10,583 1 33.638

2 38.766 10,565 21,131 4 34.553

3 50.733 10,834 32,503 9 35.493

4 15.927 9,676 38,703 16 36.458

5 28.811 10,269 51,343 25 37.449

6 38.888 10,568 63,411 36 38.468

7 35.585 10,480 73,358 49 39.514

8 56.297 10,938 87,507 64 40.589

9 63.888 11,065 99,584 81 41.693

10 38.492 10,558 105,582 100 42.826

11 67.198 11,115 122,269 121 43.991

12 26.907 10,200 122,402 144 45.188

�=� ∑ �.��� − ∑ � ∑ ��� � ∑ �2_{−(∑ �)}2

�=(12 × 787,066)−(78 × 120,285)

(12 × 650)−782 = 0,02683

ln� =∑ ��� − � ∑ �

� = 10,3965 �= 32.747,361

�′ _=����

�′ _{= 32.747,361 �}0,02683 �

�′ _{= 32.747,361 �}0,02683 (1)_{= 33.637,98≈33.638}

����

=

∑��=1_�|���|

=

4,03

12

= 33,59

3.

Metode Siklis

Jumlah periode adalah:

�

=

12

2

= 6

SIKLIS

t Y Sin(2πt/n) Cos(2πt/n)

Sin (2πt/n)*Cos

(2πt/n)

Sin^2

(2πt/n) (2πt/n)Cos^2 Y*Sin(2πt/n) Y*Cos(2πt/n)

1 39454 0,866 0,500 0,433 0,750 0,250 34166,95 19726,875 2 38766 0,866 -0,500 -0,433 0,750 0,250 33571,36 -19383 3 50733 0,000 -1,000 0,000 0,000 1,000 0,00 -50733 4 15927 -0,866 -0,500 0,433 0,750 0,250 -13792,78 -7963,5 5 28811 -0,866 0,500 -0,433 0,750 0,250 -24950,11 14405,375 6 38888 0,000 1,000 0,000 0,000 1,000 0,00 38887,5 7 35585 0,866 0,500 0,433 0,750 0,250 30816,83 17792,625 8 56297 0,866 -0,500 -0,433 0,750 0,250 48753,20 -28148,5 9 63888 0,000 -1,000 0,000 0,000 1,000 0,00 -63888,25 10 38492 -0,866 -0,500 0,433 0,750 0,250 -33334,29 -19246,125 11 67198 -0,866 0,500 -0,433 0,750 0,250 -58193,68 33599,125 12 26907 0,000 1,000 0,000 0,000 1,000 0,00 26906,75

∑ y = t a + b ∑ sin�2πt

Verifikasi Peramalan

y y't e=y-y't |MR| UCL LCL

39.454 41.034 -1.580 - 48.859,22 -48.859,22 38.766 47.375 -8.609 7.028,44 48.859,22 -48.859,22 50.733 48.086 2.647 11.255,73 48.859,22 -48.859,22 15.927 42.457 -26.530 29.176,58 48.859,22 -48.859,22 28.811 36.116 -7.305 19.224,44 48.859,22 -48.859,22 38.888 35.405 3.483 10.788,02 48.859,22 -48.859,22 35.585 41.034 -5.449 8.931,67 48.859,22 -48.859,22 56.297 47.375 8.922 14.371,06 48.859,22 -48.859,22 63.888 48.086 15.802 6.879,98 48.859,22 -48.859,22 38.492 42.457 -3.964 19.766,58 48.859,22 -48.859,22 67.198 36.116 31.082 35.046,69 48.859,22 -48.859,22 26.907 35.405 -8.498 39.580,23 48.859,22 -48.859,22

202.049,42

-60.000 -40.000 -20.000 0 20.000 40.000 60.000

PT

. B

WP

Permintaan Irawan 684- S tahun 2016

Irawan 684-S

UCL

PERAMALAN PRODUK IRAWAN 9001 – CV.WS

Irawan 9001

Bulan

Demand

Januari

1.689

Februari

1.311

Maret

1.694

April

3.092

Mei

1.715

Juni

2.544

Juli

2.424

Agustus

2.320

September

2.228

Oktober

3.006

November

2.043

Desember

1.904

Total

25.970

Metode Peramalan Terpilih:

•

Metode Eksponensial

•

Metode Kuadratis

1.

Metode Eksponensial

EKSPONENSIAL

t y lny t.lny t² y'

1 1.689 7,432 7,432 1 1.783 2 1.311 7,179 14,357 4 1.837 3 1.694 7,435 22,304 9 1.893 4 3.092 8,037 32,146 16 1.950 5 1.715 7,447 37,237 25 2.009 6 2.544 7,841 47,049 36 2.070 7 2.424 7,793 54,552 49 2.133 8 2.320 7,749 61,995 64 2.198 9 2.228 7,709 69,380 81 2.264 10 3.006 8,008 80,083 100 2.333 11 2.043 7,622 83,842 121 2.404 12 1.904 7,552 90,621 144 2.477

�=� ∑ �.��� − ∑ � ∑ ��� � ∑ �2₋₍∑ �₎2

�=(12 × 777,133)−(78 × 118,668)

(12 × 650)−782 = 0,0298

ln� =∑ ��� − � ∑ �

� = 7,4561 �= 1.730,546

�′ _=����

�′ _{= 1.730,546 �}0,0298 �

�′ _{= 1.730,546 �}0,0298 (1) _{= 1.783,02≈1.783}

����=∑��=1|���|

�

= 2,19

12

= 18,26%

2.

Metode Kuadratis

KUADRATIS

t y t² t³ t⁴ ty t²y t' y't

1 1.689 1 1 1 1.689 1.689 13 1.430 2 1.311 4 8 16 2.622 5.245 14 1.722 3 1.694 9 27 81 5.081 15.244 15 1.966 4 3.092 16 64 256 12.368 49.474 16 2.163 5 1.715 25 125 625 8.577 42.885 17 2.313 6 2.544 36 216 1.296 15.264 91.584 18 2.414 7 2.424 49 343 2.401 16.968 118.776 19 2.469 8 2.320 64 512 4.096 18.560 148.480 20 2.475 9 2.228 81 729 6.561 20.052 180.468 21 2.434 10 3.006 100 1.000 10.000 30.058 300.580 22 2.346 11 2.043 121 1.331 14.641 22.470 247.167 23 2.210 12 1.904 144 1.728 20.736 22.848 274.176 24 2.027

78 25.970 650 6.084 60.710 176.558 1.475.767 222 25.970

�=�� �2_�2_{− � � �}4

�= (650)2_{−(12 × 60.710) =−306.020}

�= (78 × 245.927)−(12 × 176.558) =−93.045

�=� �2_{� � − � � �}2_�

�= (650 ×25.970)−(12 × 1.475.767) =−828.803

�=� � � �2− � � �3

�= (78 × 650)−(12 × 6.084) =−22.308

�=�� ��

2

− � � �2

�= 782_{−(12 × 650) =−1.716}

�=�� −��

�� −�2= 363,294

�=�−��

� = -23,774

�=∑ �−� ∑ �−� ∑ �

2

� = 1.090,542

�′_{=�+��+��}2

�′_{= 1.090,542 + 363,294 �+ (−23,774)�}2

�′_{= 1.090,542 + 363,294 (1) + (−23,774)(1)}2

= 1.430,06 ≈1.430

����=∑��=1|���|

�

= 1,87

12

= 15,59%

Verifikasi Peramalan

Permintaan Irawan 9001 tahun 2016

Irawan 9001

UCL

PERAMALAN PRODUK IRAWAN 682 – CV.WS

Irawan 682

Bulan

Demand

Januari

5.916

Februari

7.748

Maret

7.483

April

16.666

Mei

15.926

Juni

6.089

Juli

9.567

Agustus

14.967

September

12.884

Oktober

12.664

November

7.720

Desember

10.102

Total

127.732

Metode Peramalan Terpilih:

•

Metode Kuadratis

•

Metode Siklis

1.

Metode Kuadratis

KUADRATIS

t y t² t³ t⁴ ty t²y t' y't

1 5.916 1 1 1 5.916 5.916 13 6.404

2 7.748 4 8 16 15.496 30.992 14 8.271

3 7.483 9 27 81 22.449 67.347 15 9.809

4 16.666 16 64 256 66.664 266.656 16 11.019 5 15.926 25 125 625 79.631 398.156 17 11.899 6 6.089 36 216 1.296 36.533 219.195 18 12.451 7 9.567 49 343 2.401 66.971 468.795 19 12.674 8 14.967 64 512 4.096 119.736 957.888 20 12.568 9 12.884 81 729 6.561 115.954 1.043.584 21 12.133 10 12.664 100 1.000 10.000 126.638 1.266.375 22 11.370 11 7.720 121 1.331 14.641 84.917 934.090 23 10.277 12 10.102 144 1.728 20.736 121.224 1.454.688 24 8.856

�=�� �2_�2_{− � � �}4

2.

Metode Siklis

Jumlah periode adalah:

�

=

12

(2πt/n) (2πt/n)Cos^2 Y*Sin(2πt/n) Y*Cos(2πt/n)

Metode Terpilih: Kuadratis

Permintaan Irawan 682 tahun 2016

Irawan 682

UCL

PERAMALAN PRODUK IRAWAN 683 – CV.WS

Irawan 683

Bulan

Demand

Januari 36.375

Februari 31.873

Maret 29.148

April 31.545

Mei 27.443

Juni 31.006

Juli 29.583

Agustus 10.356

September 19.826

Oktober 39.874

November 28.607 Desember 33.054

Total

348.688

Metode Peramalan Terpilih:

•

Metode Kuadratis

•

Metode Siklis

1.

Metode Kuadratis

KUADRATIS

t y t² t³ t⁴ ty t²y t' y't

1 36.375 1 1 1 36.375 36.375 13 37.017

2 31.873 4 8 16 63.746 127.491 14 33.390 3 29.148 9 27 81 87.444 262.332 15 30.416 4 31.545 16 64 256 126.180 504.720 16 28.097 5 27.443 25 125 625 137.213 686.063 17 26.431 6 31.006 36 216 1.296 186.038 1.116.225 18 25.420 7 29.583 49 343 2.401 207.078 1.449.543 19 25.063 8 10.356 64 512 4.096 82.848 662.784 20 25.360 9 19.826 81 729 6.561 178.430 1.605.866 21 26.311 10 39.874 100 1.000 10.000 398.738 3.987.375 22 27.917 11 28.607 121 1.331 14.641 314.672 3.461.387 23 30.176 12 33.054 144 1.728 20.736 396.648 4.759.776 24 33.089