MACRO & DEBT MARKET Daily Report

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MACRO & DEBT MARKET

_{Daily Report}

R E S E A R C H

IDR/USD 8,935 0.168 -1.085 -1.303 Indonesia Govt Bonds Yield

USD/EUR 1.308 0.238 0.677 4.422 1 Year 6.455 -0.012 -0.034 6.769 JPY/USD 86.570 0.116 -0.357 -1.176 2 Year 6.660 0.040 0.000 7.120 GBP/USD 1.573 0.249 1.543 3.637 3 Year 7.290 0.260 0.223 7.333 4 Year 7.398 0.012 -0.021 7.464 5 Year 7.501 -0.027 -0.148 7.568 6 Year 7.683 -0.039 -0.088 7.676 7 Year 7.814 -0.010 -0.158 7.801

IDR JIBOR 8 Year 8.022 -0.003 -0.078 7.945

O / N 6.232 0.016 0.035 0.001 9 Year 8.052 -0.001 -0.171 8.103 1M 6.512 0.000 0.017 0.022 10 Year 8.084 -0.016 -0.198 8.270 3M 6.989 0.000 0.045 0.121 15 Year 8.796 -0.041 -0.253 9.069 USD LIBOR O / N 0.241 -0.001 -0.007 -0.065 1M 0.305 -0.007 -0.022 -0.043 3M 0.454 -0.012 -0.039 -0.080 SBI BI Rate 6.500 0.000 1M 6.262 0.000 0.000 0.000 3M 6.630 0.000 -0.070 0.034

IDR Average Deposit

1M 6.531 0.014 0.049 -0.015

3M 6.600 0.025 0.047 -0.037

12M 6.729 0.002 0.029 -0.017

Others

Fed Fund (o/n) 0.210 0.010 0.010 0.170

US T-Bills 1M 0.138 -0.002 -0.189 -0.032 US T-Bills 3M 0.143 -0.005 -0.010 -0.001 SIBOR 1M 0.320 -0.003 -0.013 -0.032 EURIBOR 1M 0.645 0.002 0.012 0.160 DEBT MARKET Last (%) -1 day chg (+/- bps) -1 week chg (+/- bps) Median Estimate -1 week chg (+/- %) -1 month chg (+/- %) FX RATES - SPOT CURRENCY

TREASURY & MONEY MARKET

Last (%) -1 day chg (+/- bps) -1 week chg (+/- bps) -1 month chg (+/- bps) Last -1 day chg (+/- %)

Indonesia Govt Bonds Yield Curve

5.50 6.00 6.50 7.00 7.50 8.00 8.50 9.00 9.50 1 Y 2 Y 3 Y 4 Y 5 Y 6 Y 7 Y 8 Y 9 Y ₁₀ Y ₁₅ Y

Last -1 Month Estimate

Most Active Govt Bonds

VR0019 98.49 225.8 FR0054 101.25 154.0 SPN110407 95.94 125.2 VR0020 98.25 122.0 VR0017 99.60 117.0 SPN110505 95.91 100.0 FR0019 119.00 95.0 FR0027 108.75 85.0 FR0051 112.95 70.0 SPN110707 94.73 70.0

Most Active Corp Bonds

PPLN12A 101.43 29.0

FIFA10B 100.09 20.0

ASDF11B 100.17 15.0

Last Price Volume (RpBn) Indonesia Govt CDS 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 280

1-Mar 29-Mar 26-Apr 24-May 21-Jun 19-Jul

2Y 5Y 10Y

10Y Govt Bond Yield Comparison

4.25 4.50 4.75

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Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Riil GDP (yoy) 4.21 5.43 5.69 Private Consumption 4.75 3.96 3.92 Government Consumption 10.20 16.97 -8.81 Investment (PDBRT) 3.95 4.18 7.89 Inflation CPI (yoy) 2.83 2.57 2.41 2.78 3.72 3.81 3.43 3.91 4.16 5.05 CPI (mom) 1.05 0.19 -0.03 0.33 0.84 0.30 -0.14 0.15 0.29 0.97 Consumption

Motorcycle Sales (Units) 421,626 613,979 546,352 551,955 501,694 537,031 608,691 655,813 640,234

Automobile Sales (Units) 37,209 52,226 48,329 47,948 52,806 55,656 65,523 65,232 60,526

Cement Sales (mn tons) 2.80 4.20 3.81 4.07 3.48996 3.15686 3.61845

Consumer Confidence Index 110.8 110.0 111.0 108.7 110.5 105.3 107.4 110.7 109.9 111.4

Foreign Trade

Current Account (USD mn) 1,326.0 2,812.6 1,897.7 3,001.9 2,031.4 1,707.0 1,801.8 799.4 2,467.6

Export (yoy) -19.8 13.5 11.3 49.8 59 57.1 48.3 42.4 36

Import (yoy) -24.6 -12.1 -2.4 33.38 44.58 59.9 67.42 67.53 31.6

Reserves

Foreign Reserve (USD bio) 62.3 64.5 65.8 66.1 69.6 69.7 71.8 78.6 74.6 76.3

Net International Reserve (Rp trn) 596.4 609.5 587.4 585.9 616.2 616.1 620.6 674.8 651.3 660.2

Moneter (yoy) M1 Money Supply 2.1 5.8 6.8 10.7 10.69 12.72 10.36 9.22 12.59 M2 Money Supply 13.5 11.5 11.4 12.4 12.38 8.75 8.63 10.59 9.75 Financial Sector BI rate (%) 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 SBI 3 months (%) 6.55 6.60 6.59 6.59 6.60 6.59 6.56 6.50 6.58 6.60 SUN 10 years (%) 9.98 10.163 10.174 10.06 9.791 9.847 9.096 8.601 8.943 8.379

Foreign Exchange (IDR/USD) 9,665 9,550 9,468 9,480 9,360 9,335 9,095 9,013 9,180 9,053

Source: Bloomberg & CEIC

HISTORICAL & FORECAST OF MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS

2Q10 1Q10

3Q09 4Q09

Kepemilikan SUN yang dapat diperdagangkan per 29 Juli 2010 (dalam Rp Triliun)

Mar April May June 23-Jul 26-Jul 27-Jul 28-Jul 29-Jul

2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 Bank 237.74 236.04 236.45 232.67 229.40 229.20 229.12 228.80 227.78 Reksadana 44.18 46.75 47.30 48.84 49.36 49.36 49.40 49.39 49.35 Asuransi 78.04 75.31 77.23 77.44 80.40 80.40 80.43 80.40 80.42 Dana Pensiun 37.24 37.15 37.52 36.48 37.03 37.03 37.09 37.07 37.01 Sekuritas 0.42 0.22 0.25 0.13 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.22 Lain-Lain 44.37 45.35 45.77 44.49 44.33 44.32 44.31 44.29 44.26 Asing 132.46 148.13 144.09 162.05 169.58 169.79 169.74 170.14 171.89 Source: DMO Holders

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PT Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk (INDF) saat ini sedang dalam proses penerbitan Obligasi V tahun 2009 berjangka waktu 5 tahun. Nilai obligasi berubah dari Rp1 triliun menjadi Rp1,61 triliun. Sebelumnya, manajemen INDF sempat mengatakan akan menambah nilai obligasi menjadi Rp1,5 triliun bila permintaan membludak (oversubcribe). INDF akan memakai sebagian dana hasil penerbitan obligasi tersebut untuk melunasi Obligasi Indofood III senilai Rp976 miliar yang jatuh tempo Juli 2009 mendatang. Utang INDF per 31 Desember 2008 mencapai Rp14,83 triliun. Sekitar Rp7,2 triliun di antaranya merupakan utang jangka pendek, sisanya berupa utang jangka panjang.

BI: Instrumen Surat

Utang Tak Masuk LDR Bank Indonesia (BI) menegaskan instrumen surat berharga yang ditempatkan oleh_{bank berupa obligasi korporasi atau semacamnya tidak akan dimasukkan dalam}

penghitungan Loan to Deposit Ratio (LDR). Aturan yang akan segera dirilis mengenai LDR yang dikaitkan dengan Giro Wajib Minimum (GWM) hanya memperhitungkan rasio penyaluran kredit. Gubernur BI terpilih Darmin Nasution mengatakan aturan LDR-GWM akan segera diumumkan dalam waktu dekat. Sebelumnya kalangan perbankan meminta agar penempatan dana dalam surat utang atau obligasi dimasukkan dalam penghitungan LDR. Darmin menjelaskan instrumen surat berharga yang dibeli oleh bank bukan merupakan pinjaman yang akan menggerakan sekto riil. Tetapi menurutnya, hanya merupakan pinjaman ke pasar saham. Lebih lanjut Darmin mengatakan hingga saat ini bank sentral masih mengkaji mengenai batasan LDR yang harus dipenuhi oleh bank. Ia menjamin rasio LDR yang akan ditetapkan tidak akan membuat bank kesulitan.

Obligasi Indofood Naik Jadi Rp1,61 T

Obligasi Pertamina US$ 1,5 Miliar Terancam Molor

Rencana PT Pertamina (Persero) untuk menerbitkan obligasi US$ 1,5 miliar pada September 2010 kemungkinan akan mundur lagi. Menurut Direktur Keuangan Pertamina, M. Afdhal Bahaudin, hingga kini hasil audit terhadap laporan keuangan tahun 2009 yang dilakukan oleh lembaga audit Ernst&Young dan kantor akuntan publik PSS Purwanto masih belum selesai. Padahal, salah satu syarat penerbitan obligasi adalah laporan keuangan dua tahun terakhir harus selesai diaudit. Pertamina sendiri sudah menyelesaikan audit untuk laporan keuangan 2008, tinggal menunggu laporan keuangan tahun lalu selesai diperiksa. Namun, Afdal berharap penerbitan obligasi bisa tetap terlaksana pada tahun ini juga. Rencananya dana hasil oblihasi akan digunakan untuk kegiatan investasi pengembangan sektor upstream, down-stream, sampai midstream. "Karena due diligence, legal dan sebagainya kita sudah siapkan," ungkapnya. Semula, BUMN migas itu menargetkan penerbitan surat utang itu bisa dilakukan sekitar bulan April-Mei 2010 lalu. Manajemen perusahaan pelat

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FR0024 15-Oct-10 12.00% 101.35 5.09% 5.83% 101.20 FR0014 15-Nov-10 15.58% 102.73 5.70% 5.86% 102.68 FR0021 15-Dec-10 14.50% 103.00 6.10% 5.90% 103.07 FR0015 15-Feb-11 13.40% 104.10 5.52% 5.98% 103.85 FR0016 15-Aug-11 13.45% 107.10 6.26% 6.20% 107.16 FR0022 15-Sep-11 12.00% 106.08 6.27% 6.23% 106.13 FR0025 15-Oct-11 10.00% 104.07 6.41% 6.27% 104.24 FR0017 15-Jan-12 13.15% 108.90 6.62% 6.37% 109.26 FR0018 15-Jul-12 13.18% 111.34 6.87% 6.56% 111.94 FR0023 15-Dec-12 11.00% 108.70 6.94% 6.71% 109.23 FR0033 15-Mar-13 12.50% 112.90 7.02% 6.80% 113.45 FR0019 15-Jun-13 14.25% 118.35 7.07% 6.88% 118.87 FR0049 15-Sep-13 9.00% 105.02 7.17% 6.96% 105.61 FR0020 15-Dec-13 14.28% 120.65 7.25% 7.04% 121.36 FR0051 15-May-14 11.25% 112.66 7.35% 7.16% 113.32 FR0026 15-Oct-14 11.00% 112.78 7.40% 7.28% 113.24 FR0027 15-Jun-15 9.50% 108.11 7.48% 7.45% 108.21 FR0030 15-May-16 10.75% 114.13 7.67% 7.67% 114.15 FR0028 15-Jul-17 10.00% 111.64 7.80% 7.91% 111.01 FR0032 15-Jul-18 15.00% 139.21 8.19% 8.09% 139.94 FR0038 15-Aug-18 11.60% 121.16 7.98% 8.10% 120.35 FR0048 15-Sep-18 9.00% 105.99 7.98% 8.12% 105.16 FR0036 15-Sep-19 11.50% 122.20 8.02% 8.27% 120.36 FR0031 15-Nov-20 11.00% 120.33 8.05% 8.43% 117.40 FR0034 15-Jun-21 12.80% 132.46 8.22% 8.50% 130.05 FR0035 15-Jun-22 12.90% 133.01 8.44% 8.62% 131.41 FR0043 15-Jul-22 10.25% 113.01 8.49% 8.63% 111.95 FR0046 15-Jul-23 9.50% 106.67 8.63% 8.73% 105.92 FR0039 15-Aug-23 11.75% 124.11 8.63% 8.73% 123.19 FR0044 15-Sep-24 10.00% 110.04 8.75% 8.83% 109.31 FR0040 15-Sep-25 11.00% 118.34 8.78% 8.91% 117.15 FR0037 15-Sep-26 12.00% 126.41 8.88% 8.98% 125.42 FR0042 15-Jul-27 10.25% 108.08 9.29% 9.04% 110.41 FR0047 15-Feb-28 10.00% 108.08 9.07% 9.07% 108.05 FR0052 15-Aug-30 10.50% 108.08 9.58% 9.21% 111.72 FR0045 15-May-37 9.75% 101.36 9.61% 9.46% 102.83 FR0050 15-Jul-38 10.50% 107.70 9.70% 9.49% 109.87

YTM Yield Curve Valuation Price Maturity Date Coupon Last Price

Series

Last Price data: 30-Jul-2010

FR 00 13 FR 00 24 FR 00 14 FR 00 21 FR 00 15 FR 00 16 FR 00 22 FR 00 25 FR 00 17 FR 00 18 FR 00 23 FR 00 33 FR 00 19 FR 00 49 FR 00 20 FR 00 51 FR 00 26 FR 00 27 FR 00 30 FR 00 28 FR0 03 2 FR 00 38 FR 00 48 FR 00 36 FR 00 31 FR 00 34 FR 00 35 FR 00 43 FR 00 46 FR 00 39 FR 00 44 FR 00 40 FR 00 37 FR 00 42 FR 00 47 FR 00 52 FR 00 45 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Yi el d Di ff er en ce (i n bp s) Years to Maturity

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MACRO & DEBT RESEARCH TEAM

Research Dept. : +62 21 25543946 Fax No : +62 21 57935831 E-mail : [email protected]

Norico Gaman ext. 3934 [email protected] Head of Research Deoly Rawendra ext. 2050 [email protected] Debt Analyst Dian Kurniati ext. 2051 [email protected] Research Adm.

Debt Capital Market Division : +62 21 25543946 Fax No : +62 21 5796934 E-mail : [email protected]

Sukartono ext. 3974 [email protected] Head of Division Anang Roso ext. 3936 [email protected] Head of Sales DEBT MARKET TEAM

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Phone: (62-21) 25543946 (Hunting) Fax: (62-21) 57935831

e-mail: [email protected] (General) Website: http://www.bnisecurities.co.id JAKARTA - Mangga Dua

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Phone: (62-21) 6123804/5 Fax: (62-21) 6123806 e-mail: [email protected]

JAKARTA - Wisma 46

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Phone: 021- 2515266 Fax.021-5749837 e-mail: [email protected]

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Phone: (62-21) 58357464 Fax: (62-21) 58357465 e-mail: [email protected]

BANDUNG

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Fax: (62-22) 4213376 e-mail: [email protected]

YOGYAKARTA

Gedung BNI, Jl. Laksda Adi Sucipto No.137 Phone: (62-274) 581001

SOLO

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DENPASAR

Komplek Ruko Agung Raya No. 15 Jl. Teuku Umar Kav. 200 Phone: (62-361) 254985 e-mail: [email protected] MEDAN Jl. Pemuda No. 12 Phone: (62-61) 4579616 Fax: (62-61) 4579656 e-mail: [email protected] PALEMBANG

Jl. Jend. Sudirman No. 132, Kotak Pos 165 PLG Phone: (62-711) 3619662

PEKANBARU

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Phone: (62-761) 46757, 839698 Fax: (62-761) 856279 e-mail: [email protected]

SEMARANG

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ACEH

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Phone: (62-651) 31109 Fax: (62-651) 31107