Analisis Pengaruh Variabel Makroekonomi Terhadap Inflasi Di Indonesia Sebelum Dan Sesudah Diterapkannya Kebijakan Inflation Targeting Framework Periode 2002:1 –2010:12

(1)

& ' ( & # ) *+ ! ! " # ! $ %& '$ ! $ ( ! $ ( ) * $ ! + ! ( ! ! ! ! ! $ ( ! $ ( ! $ $ ! ! , -! " ! ! ! ! ! $ ( ! $ ( ! $ $ . *! $ / 0( ! $ 0( 1 $ 1 $ 0 & .

!" # " !"

(2)

* . * * -. -+ / * ( -. 0 1 0& ! (1* + -2 0/ 2 " ! 1 3 2 0 3 1* + -( - -* + / / -* * 0 - !""41* 2 / * + / / # ( - -+ -+ /+ / * - 2 -# $* / 2 + * 2 + *

(3)

!* -2 -2 + * 05 - !""41* -+ # $* 2 0 ! 1* !* -2 / * 6* ( * ( $% " &'( ) # * * *

(4)

2 * 4* 2 - ( 2 -7* * 05 - !""41* ( 2 / *2 -# $* 8 ' 2 0 !1 0 ' !""!#$ % !"$"#$!* !* 091 / 0 1 !""!#$ % !"$"#$!* 6* . 0 1 : 0 ' !""!#$ % !"$"#$!*

&' & &*+ ,

+ -( - -* + / -* * 0 - !""41* - # $* 02 , ! 1 0 1-*

(5)

!* 0& , ! 1 * 8 * 0 ! 1 * +-$.-( - &*+ , + - / / + -# - & , 3 ! ( ( ; * -< - . / * # 1* ( -* 1* = + / * - /& , * * - ( + , . / * . / * / * * * * , ' ' , &*+ , / ;> ;> 0 & ! ! ! ' - 2 / *

(6)

* -3 # "0 &*+ , & 1 + 0 1 -# / = # -&

0 &*+ , && & -+ ( * # 2 0# 1# 0 1 -* 3 0+ 1 # 0 1 -22 - -- / *

$ & & &*+ ,

0 ! 1-0 ! 1- * / / 0 ! 1 -/ -/ 0 1-! + * 0 ! ' * -0 1 * -* & + - +

(7)

/ 0 - -1 0' :1-+ + -/ 0 ! , 1 * ' :-*

& &'&/ , % + & '

* * - $+ 2 &' 3 % 3 . *! ' 8 ' 0' 1 * 8 + 0;1 0 1* ' -. * ' - -: -* >+ ( 0!""?# !?1-* 8 0 1 * + -/ * ' 0 1-0 1 * / + * 2 -* 2 -* 2 - $ + -0 : & 1*

(8)

- ( & , &' 04! 1 / ( @ + / A* -/ * / * . * 8 2 -0 1 -/ * 8 * -* / * 8 -* * -+ B 2-* / 0-! 1* 2 -* +

-&' + & $ & 2 0 /

0( ! 1 + * > -* + * * + *

(9)

&' + & $ & 2 , /& , C D ;E E9 ( + * * C - ; - 9 * 9 C * -/ 091 -+ / 0;1 * + * / / / * 8 -* ,4 + ( 0 ( 1 . -. 0 - !""F1* . . * / * + ( / ( -- -* -0 1 * * % 2 & + ( # "5 . , , 0 1 / 0 ! 1 0 1 * 5 . , , 0 1 / 0 ! 1 0 1 * 65 7 + , 0 ! 1

(10)

+ . G 85 7 + , 0 ! 1 + . * 0 *3 3 - !""41* - , / + 0 ! 1 0 ! 1* ( * -* 0 1 * . -0 H 1 * , $ ,4 + ( 0 ( 1 + H -# "0 , $ ( , . 0 ( ( 1 -( + ( + * 0 , $ ( , $ &' $% &' % ( ' -/ -2 + * 60 , $ ( , $ &' $% &' 9 ( &3 + % ( ' -2 I * + ( *

(11)

& + & % + $&/ -# I 5* 0!""J1 / C !""J* / -( * -!" * ( 2 - -$ !- * 3 2 2 * 8 2 2 $K "-, K * ) / ( -* 8 $ -* $- 8 ! * > -! ( * ( -* 091 / * 2 $ K $-"7 K* -* & L 3 < 0!""71 -$,,"/!""7*

(12)

-* 0 & . 0&; 1-( 0 0 & . 1 3 / - * -/ * 8 0!""?1 8 ' 2 -. : $,,"*$%!""?*4* ( ( - ( ! 8 ' 2 - -. : * >= 03 5 *-! '* 3 8 ' -- . 0 ': 1 + ( * + = 3 0!""61 / $,J"/ !""!* + / / $,J" !""! 0 1* / 0 & . 0&; 1* ( + ( *

&' 2 % + . &3 &

2 3 . % + &3 . &3 &

&' 2 $+ 2 &' % 3 3 + $ + , : 5 2 3 . &*+ , + = 3 0!""61* + / $,J" !""! 0 1*

(13)

& ; + 0&; 1* ( / + ( *8 08'21 * * 0 1 08'21 -*

&' 2 &' + & $ & 2 2 3 . &*+ , & L 3 < 0!""61 -$,?F/!""!* -* >= 0 5 *-! 1-( &; 00 & . 1* 3 -/ -* $,,J/!""7* -( / * ( * -* &' 2 ,4 + ( . 2 2 3 . &*+ , & 0!""61*

(14)

-$,?7/!""7 / & ; + 0&; 1* >= 0 = B 1 + + 0&; 1* 3 / -/ * $,,J/!""7* -( / * ( * -* * / -/ * &' & ! % + . &3 & . = D

% + &3 . &3 & ! D8

9 D

2 .

D. :

(15)

.- , , 3 # 3 $ # 8 0 !1 * 3 ! # * 3 6 # . H :

&; &' & & + &

-/ - / -* * -3 & + , , 0 & . 0&; 1 >= 03 5 *-! 1* -&; -/ H -* / &; 00 & . 1* / %! 1 2 ! 0 1 +! 2 ! * 8 ( -0 1 ( / ( * &; 00 & . 1* # <*: 1 1 1 00=0:"5 # . = D = ! D 8 ' 2 : 9 D : ': D . / 0: H' 1 :

(16)

) ( 9 ( & 0 ) 1 1 ' / ' * / + 0$,?,- $,J$1* ) ) & ' , * ' / ' 0 1-0 - $,,! # !F$/!F!1* ) - & ' , 0& 1 ( /( *0 -$,,! #!F!1* ( ( * & 9 0$,J?1 - ' ;: 5 0& ,1 2! , 6 1- 02 , ! 1 0+! 2 , ! 1 0 1 * ) - & ' , : > 5 + &; + 0$,,,#$/!1 &; -&; ( - + + / ( + + * &' ) & , $, + , ( ' >= 0 3 5 *-! 1 -* '

(17)

-* "0 ) - $ + , ' ( * 0 & -!""71* 8 B /2 # 8 7 -! , " M 7K 0"*"71 3 0 1-0 1* 8 7 -! , " N 7K 0"*"71 3 0 1-0 / 1* 0 ) + (-+ & , ' ( * ; / * / ( * 3 ( $*" "*? 0 & - !""71* # 8 0 1 N "*?- 3 0 1 8 0 1 M "*?- 3 0 1 60 ) -,( 3 , , , ' ( ( * C ( ( 0 & - !""71* + - # 0$1* ' 0!1* / ,4! - 061* ' 6 * -+ 6 * ' 6 -( 0 1* ' 0 4*"* ' 6 * 80 ) -(- + , ' *

(18)

* ( * 0 & - !""71* + - # $1* ' 2! ,6 -!1* ' = & %5 .! 1* -+ = & %5 .! 1* &' ) & , ( ' -* ' % '* ) .- , ' -*3 3 H3 3 H ( * 3 + 3 * ) : ) &3 7 3 5 ' + H ( * ( ( 09 -$,,6# ??/?J1* # 8 / M / 3 3 0 1-( ( * ) : ) & (5 ' ( / ( + ( 09 - $,,6# J$1* # 8 M 3 3 0 1- + / ( ( * 8 N 3 3 0 1-+ / ( ( * ) - * , & $ & , : ?5

(19)

! ( * :O* :O ( + ( 0 1* :O $ ( ( - :O " ( ( *

&' ) & ) & ' , ' * C / 0 1 * -+ + + + ( $K- 7K- $"K ( -+ + + + + ( $K- 7K-$"K ( * 8 0"1 -* * ' % + " ) ( 9 ( & % + -3 + &' 2 @ ABC * 3-/,*!,4!7" /6*47!?F4 + - + ,*!??7,J /6*47!?F4 $_P _{+ P} ₊ ! /6*!?6464 /6*47?J"J $ _{+ -} ₊ /$!*4J",! /6*47!?F4 $@ + - + 9 /7*!6"FJ4 /6*47FJ"7 $@ Q + - + + /,*"66?4F /6*47!?F4 $R + - + ': /7*$FJF$" /6*476F"$ $@ + - + /J*?$F"!, /6*47!?F4 , _{+ -} ₊ # !"# $%&*$,

(20)

/ * - ( /( * ' , &'( &3 ( &; 9-D 7K- !-&; * &; D "*$?$,-D 7K-* ( 0 !- 9- ': - 1 / M "*"7 ( + * # $* 8 0 !1 * !* * % + , + ' ,

(21)

6* . : * 4* * 3 ( + "-"7*

) , $, + , ( &'( &) &'

) - $ + , . / ( * 7 -! ," -# 3 # 3 # 8 B / 2 N "*"7 3 -8 B /2 M"*"7 3 % + 6

(22)

* ) + (-+ & , ( 0 / 1* + -( * ; 1, -! - , - , * / - # 3 # 3 # $% 6 , + ) - $ + , % + 8 , + ) + (-+ & , :>- + -& D5 3 $$/ & . = L $*"""""" "*"76?," "*$4$4!7 "*$J!??6 "*!7,!67 "*J?F"$$ ! "*"76?," $*"""""" "*J6F46? "*66$",7 "*J$4$4, /$*!4&/$4 "*$4P4!7 "*J6F46? $*"""""" "*!??7"F "*F?FJ,4 $*F?&/$F ': "*$ !??6 "*66$",7 "*!??7"F $*"""""" "*!44J$7 /J*7"&/$7 "*!7,!67 "*J$4$4, "*F?FJ,4 "*!44J$7 $*"""""" /$*,,&/$7 :& ' = "*J?F"$$ /$*!4&/$4 $*F?&/$F /J*7"&/ 7 /$*,,&/$7 $*""""""

(23)

) -,( 3 , , , &- ; -,, $ 3 / ( / ( * - # 3 # 3 # ) -(- + , * * ( * * - # % + B , + ) -,( 3 , , , # 8 3 # 3 # ) .- , , ) 9 : ) &3 7 3 5 -( 0 !- 9-': - 1 M "*"7 ( + * # $* " 0;1 "*,7!! 2 - H! "*,7!! N "*"7* 3 -+ / * % + E , + ) -(- + , %,F ,G 3 -% % + , $ . + & $ 7,*J "7" 6 "*" """ %, F 9,G 3 -% % + , $. + & $7,J"7"6 "*"""" # 8

(24)

% + H !* ! 0 !1 "*"""" 2 - H! "*"""" M "*"7* 3 -/ + / * 6* / 6 0 ': 1 "*"""" 2 - H! "*"""" M "*"7* 3 -+ * 4* / 40 1 "*"""" 2 - H! "*"""" M "*"7* 3 - ( + * ) : ) & (5 / "*"777J" M "*"7 3 + * - + / ( 0 !- -1 ( 0 . = 1* ) - * , & 3 $ & , ( ( * . :! " $* * ' 0 1 * 0:!₁ % + >- * ; & *30 - 9, , ; ;% , $. + & ; /"*"7!?$J "*J??,6J /"*"F""4? "*,7!! N$! /? F?&/"F 6*!?&/"? /!6*44FF" "*"""" 9 "*"4J?F4 "*""4"4! $!*"F7F4 "*"""" ': "*""$!76 ,*?,&/"7 $!*J"64J "*"""" ' C 7*?7??!7 "*!!7J,6 !7*4JJ?$ "*"""" 9, , ; -% % + / , $. + & J ?!*$"$, "*""" """ + / ( ( % + I , + )

(25)

. :! D "*",,"?! ( ( "*",,"?! * 2 / # $* 2 ( 0 !1 -/ * !* 2 ( 091 -( / * 6* 2 ( 0 ': 1 -- ( H * 4* -8 -* 7* 2 & 0!""71 / ( - -* / ! $,," !""7-8 !""!

(26)

!"$" + * -# $1 -/ / * !1 2 - / ( ( * I - 5* - !""J-/ C !""J- .- ( F*. *!- $!6/$6"* + - :- * - $,,$-+ + + -8* - & -8 * & # !""J- / C - 8 & - ( $6 . *$- $/$6* 9 - 0$,,?1- & - 2 L -& - 8 * 3 - - / - 8 2 & - ( $$ . *!- !""4* 3 - 3 * & 2 - & : ( 8 # 9 -!"""* 8 # !""J- 8 ' 2 -- . -& - ( $4- 6- !J$/ !,,* = 2 - C -2 & *2 - $,J7-& - 6- 2 & # C * - .- 9 *!""$* . 0 - 4 - . C # + 9 3 * - + *!""J* &+ + - 2 - + - J - ' # 3 ; ; * *L 3 < & -8 ' 2 -. # & ; + 0&; 1- 8 & - ! . *$-!""F*

(27)

( - $,,J- & -& # 8 * -5 . - $,,4- & -$4- 2 3 - & - 8 * & -* 5 - - !""4- 2 # -# 8 * #HH * * * H H H H H E H * 0 F !"$!1* #HH * * * H H H H H E H * 0 F !"$!1* #HH * * * H H H H H E H * 0 F !"$!1* #HH * * * H H H H H E H 0 7 !"$$1* #HH * * * H H H H E& E E E E = H E H 0 7 !"$$1* #HH * * * H H H H E & E E E H E =H E E H 0 7 !"$$1* #HH * * * H H H H E & E E E H E 3 =H E& H0 7 !"$$1* #HH * * * H H H H E & E E E H E 3 = H E H0 7 !"$$1*